Financial Management Professor Jung-Wook Kim CBA SNU Fall, 2023 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 1 You should not share, post, nor distribute any course related materials. Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 2 Finance Investment Fall 2023 Corporate Finance © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 3 Finance Investment: a.k.a Asset Pricing, Portfolio Management Optimal portfolio mix, investment strategy Corporate Finance: How to make optimal corporate financial decisions? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 4 Corporate finance related decisions Time value of money related questions (lecture notes 3 & 4) How to justify spending huge amount of money to build a factory (or not)? (lecture note 5 & 6) What is the cost of raising external funds? How to raise them? Issuing bond (borrowing money) or issuing stocks? How to distribute the money a company earned to shareholders? (dividend or share repurchases?) Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 5 Example (Lecture Notes 3 & 4) A large coffee costs $1.65. If the bank’s quoted interest rate is 6% APR with daily compounding, and if the coffee price never changed, what would a lifetime free subscription to Tim Horton coffee (a cup a day) be worth today, assuming you will live for 50 more years? What is the additional value of the subscription today that allows you to bequeath or sell it after 50 years (assuming that it gives a cup a day infinitely)? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 6 Personal financial problem Assume that you are 30 years old today, and that you are planning on retirement at age 65. Your current salary is $45,000 and you expect your salary to increase at a rate of 5% per year as long as you work. To save for your retirement, you plan on making annual contributions to a retirement account. Your first contribution will be made on your 31st birthday and will be 8% of this year's salary of $45,000. Likewise, you expect to deposit 8% of your salary each year until you reach age 65. Assume that the rate of interest is 7%. In this case, how much money you would have at age 65? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 7 Capital Budgeting of HomeNet Linksys is considering developing a wireless home networking appliance, called HomeNet Linksys has already conducted an intensive, $300,000 feasibility study to assess the attractiveness of the new product. Based on survey, - sales forecast for HomeNet is 100,000 units per year with 4 year life - retail price of $375,with an expected whole sale price of $260 - engineering and design costs: $5 mil - production cost (outsourced. Including package): $110 per unit. Thus, $11 million - cost of software engineer: $0.2 million*50 engineer=$10 million - new equipment for testing purpose: $7.5 million - selling and marketing related cost (annual overhead): $2.8 million per year Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 8 Finance answers these questions using Economics (underlying tools) Statistics or econometrics(data analysis) Accounting (language) Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 9 Relevant building blocks (syllabus topics) for the analyses NPV: net present value ‘present value’?-Time value of money Discount rate? Depending on risk ‘NPV rules’?-capital budgeting Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 10 Example: Do these two firms have the same level of risk? Cashflow in one year. Firm A: 0 in weak economy & 600 in strong economy Firm B: 600 in weak economy & 0 in strong economy Probability of weak (strong) economy is 0.5 What are expected values of cashflows of Firm A and Firm B respectively? What are variances? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 11 Stat facts: Expected value and variance ~ Stat Fact 1: If X takes the value of X i with probability p i n ~ Expected value= E ( X ) = pi X i i =1 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 12 Stat Fact 2: Variance is a measure of the dispersion of a random variable f n ~ ~ ~ ~ Variance= V (X ) = pi (X i − E (X ))2 =p1(X 1 − E (X ))2 + p2(X 2 − E (X ))2 i =1 ~ ~ Standard Deviation= Std ( X ) = V ( X ) Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 13 In terms of expected value and variance, both are the same. Do they have same risk? Answer is…. Underlying concept to be discussed to answer this question: Marginal utility of money and covariance risk Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 14 What is risk? Such an important question in finance. Two economists, Hary Markowitz and William Sharpe received Nobel prize for their contribution in 1990. Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 15 Uncertainty and Investment Decision: Real Option Approach Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 16 Example: Honey Butter Chip Was a huge success Looks very profitable. Future discounted cashflow may be greater than cost of increasing production capacity. But the manufacturer did not increase the capacity for a sustained period of time. Why? NPV vs real option approach Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 17 Uncertainty and Investment Decision: Real Option Approach Merton and Scholes received Nobel prize in 1997 for their contribution in option pricing Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 18 Relevant building blocks (syllabus topics) for the analyses NPV: net present value ‘present value’?-Time value of money ‘NPV rules’?-capital budgeting ‘Options’? ‘Real options’? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 19 Capital Structure: two firms with the asset of $1000 Firm A borrowed $500 Firm B has no borrowing at all (100% of money is from the owner of the company, i.e., shareholders) Two firms have identical cashflow outlooks Which firm’s value will be higher? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 20 A theorem that started corporate finance as a separate field Modigliani and Miller theorem: Under the assumption of ‘perfect market’, financing decision does not matter Modigliani received Nobel prize in Economics in 1985 and Miller received Nobel prize in 1990 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 21 Market Efficiency in Economics and in Finance Market efficiency in economics: Wealth of Nation (1776) describes a market governed by ‘an invisible hand’ Allocative efficiency: “What to produce, who will produce and who will consume” can be done best if left to market. Central planning is not necessary. Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 22 Market Efficiency in Finance Most modern financial theories assume that the stock market is informationally efficient: New information is quickly and correctly incorporated into stock prices Recently, there is a challenge to this conventional view What if market is not ‘efficient?’ What is the implication on corporate finance? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 23 ‘Bubble’: Investors could be irrational Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 24 As of Aug 25, 2022 Robert Shiller (Yale, Nobel Prize in Economics, 2013) 1996 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 25 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 26 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 27 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 28 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 29 Initial Public Offering Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 30 Uber IPO Related (as of 2019-04-29) 2018 estimate was $120B Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 31 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 32 Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 33 Corporate ownership Ownership structure around the world; widely held firm vs pyramidal structures Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 34 Corporate ownership A Typical Large US Firm 1. 2. Widely held. No controlling shareholder Freestanding. US listed firms usually don’t control other listed firms Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Almost 100% owned by small shareholders 100% owned Domestic subsidiaries Public Shareholders Principal (owner of the company)-Agent (professional managers) Problem: Principal wants profit maximization but agent may want sales maximization. How to make professional managers faithful to small shareholders? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 35 Corporate Governance Elsewhere Who Controls the top 20 listed firms in each country? Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 36 Outside of US and UK, pyramid is quite common. Why? Family Firm Governance Problems in a Pyramid >50% >50% A1 A2 >50% >50% B1 B2 >50% >50% C1 D1 D2 <50% in each >50% D3 <50% in each >50% C3 >50% D4 <50% in each >50% D5 <50% in each D6 <50% in each >50% <50% in each >50% C5 >50% D7 B4 >50% C4 >50% >50% B3 >50% C2 >50% >50% D8 <50% in each >50% D9 <50% in each >50% C6 >50% D10 <50% in each >50% D11 <50% in each >50% C7 >50% D12 <50% in each >50% D13 <50% in each C8 >50% >50% D14 <50% in each >50% D15 <50% in each D16 <50% in each Public Shareholders 1. Family has little real stake in most firms 2. Family is entrenched (votes > 51% in each firm) 3. Family can “tunnel” funds from one firm to another to concentrate wealth in the ones it owns directly Fall 2023 © Jung-Wook Kim, Seoul National University 37