Question of case 2
Advantage energy technology data center
Migration-part B
In chapter 6, Brian smith, network administrator at advanced energy technology (AET), was
given the responsibility of implementing the migration of a large data center to a new office
location.
Careful planning was needed because AET operates in the highly competitive petroleum
industry. AET is one of five national software companies that provide an accounting and
business management package for oil jobbers and gasoline distributors. A few years ago AET
jumped into the “application service provider” world their large data center provides clients
with remote access to AET‘s complete suite of application software systems. Traditionally,
one of AET’s primary competitive advantages has been the company’s trademark IT
reliability. Due to the complexity of the project, the executive committee insisted the
preliminary analysis of the anticipated completion date be conducted.
Brian compiled the following information, in preparation for some PERT analysis:
No. Task Name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Aet deta center migration
Team meeting
Hire contractors
Network design
Ventilation system
Order ventilation system
Install ventilation system
New racks
Order new racks
Install racks
Power supplies and cables
Order power supplies &
cables
Install power supplies
Install cables
Renovation of data center
City inspection
Switchover meetings
facilities
Operation/system
Operations/
telecommunications
Systems& applications
Time in workdays
Optimistic Most
Duration
likely
Duration
54
68
0.5
1
6
7
12
14
18
21
5
7
13
14
17
21
6
7
Pessimistic
Duration
Immediate Critical
predecessor path
92
1.5
8
16
30
9
21
25
8
2
2
2
6
2
9



2
5
6
19
1
7
5
6
5
8
20
2
8
7
7
11
10
27
3
9
9
8
12,16
12,16
3,4
3,7,10
14
14
14
7
7
13
14


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22
23
Customer service
Power check
5
0.5
6
1
13
1.5
24
Install test servers
5
7
9
25
26
27
28
Management safety check
Primary system check
Set data for move
Complete move
1
1.5
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
2.5
1
3


14
13,14,
15
2,3,18,
19,20,
21
7,23,24
25
26
27





1. Based on these estimates and the resultant expected project duration of 69 days the
executive committee wants to know what is the probability of completing the project
before a scheduled time (Ts) of 68 days?
2. The significance of this project has the executive committee very concerned. The
committee has decided that more analysis of the duration of each activity is needed.
Prior to conducting that effort they asked Brian to calculate what the expected project
duration would have to be to ensure a 93 percent chance of completion within 68days.
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Answer of requirement 1.
Event
Optimistic
(𝒕𝒐 )
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19.
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
54
.5
6
12
18
5
13
17
6
5
6
19
1
7
5
6
7
5
.5
5
1
1.5
1
1
𝑧=
Most
Likely
(𝒕𝒎 )
68
1
7
14
21
7
14
21
7
5
8
20
2
8
7
7
7
6
1
7
2
2
1
2
Pessimistic
(𝒕𝒑 )
Critical
Path
Average
(𝝈𝟐𝒊 )
92
1.5
8
16
30
9
21
25
8
11
10
27
3
9
9
8
13
13
1.5
9
3
2.5
1
3
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
69.67
1
7
14
22
7
15
21
7
6
8
21
2
8
7
7
8
7
1
7
2
2
1
2
m=69
40.11
.03
.11
.44
4
.44
1.78
1.78
.11
1
.44
1.78
.11
.11
.44
.11
1
1.78
.03
.44
.11
.03
0
.11
2
𝜎𝑚
= 6.64
𝐷−𝑀
2
√𝜎𝑚
Where, D= the desired project completion time.
M= the critical time of the project. (The sum of the average time for the activities on the path)
2
𝜎𝑚
= the variance of the critical path. (The sum of the variance for the activities on the
critical path)
Z= the number of Standard deviation of normal distribution.
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Now, Here, before schedule = 68, that means D=68
M=69
∴Z=
=
=
𝐷−𝑀
2
√𝜎𝑚
68−69
√6.64
−1
√6.64
= -0.78
∴ The probability of z value -0.78 is 0.3483
∴ The probability of completion the project at 67 days is 34.83%.
Requirement 2.
If z value is 1.48 then there is 93% probability of completion of the project, so the expected
project duration will be:
As, Z = 1.48
 Z=
𝐷−𝑀
2
√𝜎𝑚
 1.48 =




𝐷−69
√6.64
D - 69 = 1.48 ∗ (√6.64 )
D – 69 = 3.81
D = 3.81 + 69
D = 72. 81
∴ The expected project duration would have 72.81 days to be ensuring that project will be
completed with 93% probability.
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