|Modeling and Simulations|Page 1 * ﻣﻘدﻣﺔ ﻟﻣﻘرر اﻟﻧﻣذﺟﺔ واﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة:اﻟﻔﺻل اﻷول Chapter 1: Introduction to Modeling and Simulations. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي. ﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ دExcel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLD) اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام-1 Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 2 ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ: • ان اﻟﻧﻣذﺟﺔ واﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ھﻣﺎ ﺗطﺑﯾﻘﺎن ﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺎن ﯾﻠﻌﺑﺎن دورا رﺋﯾﺳﯾﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻠوم واﻟﮭﻧدﺳﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎد اﻟﯾوم ،وھﻲ ﺗﺳﺎﻋد اﻟﻌﻠﻣﺎء واﻟﻣﮭﻧدﺳﯾن واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﯾن ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻔض ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ واﺳﺗﮭﻼك اﻟوﻗت ﻟﻠﺑﺣوث .ﻛﻣﺎ أﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﻔﯾدة ﻟﻠﻧﺎس اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﯾن ﻟﻔﮭم وﺗدرﯾﺑﮭم ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻲء ﺑﺳﮭوﻟﺔ • ان اﻟﻧﻣذﺟﺔ واﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻌﺗﺑر ﻣن اﻟﻣواﺿﯾﻊ اﻟﻣﮭﻣﺔ ﺟدا ﻣن اﺟل اﺟراء اﻟدراﺳﺎت وﺗﺣدﯾد اﻟﺟدوى اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﻗﺑل ﺗﻧﻔﯾذ أي ﻣﺷروع ،وذﻟك ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌدﯾد ﻣن اﻟﻣﺟﺎﻻت اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ .ﻓﺎﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ أﺣد اﻟوﺳﺎﺋل اﻟﻣﮭﻣﺔ ﻟﺣل اﻟﻣﺷﺎﻛل Techniques Solving Problemوھﻲ اﻟوﺳﯾﻠﺔ اﻟوﺣﯾدة واﻷﺧﯾرة ﻟﺣل أي ﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ إذا ﻣﺎ اﺳﺗﻌﺻﻰ ﺣﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟطرق اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾﻠﯾﺔ Methods Analyticاو اﻟﻌددﯾﮫ .Numerical Methods • وﺗﻌﺗﻣد اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻠﻰ طرق إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻣﻌﺎﯾﻧﺔ Methods Resamplingوﺗوﻟﯾد أرﻗﺎم وﻣﺗﻐﯾرات ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺻﻔﺎت ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ واﻟﺗﻲ ﺳوف ﯾﺗم دراﺳﺗﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻔﺻﯾل ﻻﺣﻘﺎ. • ھو ﻣوﺿوع ﯾﺗم ﻓﯾﮫ اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﺣﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﺑﺑرﻣﺟﺗﮭﺎ ﻟﺗوﻟﯾد ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﺗوزﯾﻌﺎت إﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ ﺗﺷﺎﺑﮫ ﺗوزﯾﻌﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟواﻗﻊ وﻣن ﺛم اﺳﺗﺧﻼص ﺣﺳﺎﺑﺎت وﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ذات ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺗﺟرﺑﺔ ذﻟك اﻟواﻗﻊ ،واﻟﻣوﺿوع ﯾﻧﺗﻣﻲ إﻟﻰ ﻣوﺿوع ﺑﺣوث اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺎت ﺣﯾث ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﺣﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻻﺗﺧﺎذ ﻗرار ﻣﻌﯾن وﺻﺎﺋب ﻹﺟراء اﻟﺗﺟﺎرب اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺔ. • اﻟﻣوﺿوع ﻣﮭم ﻓﻲ اﻟﺗﺟﺎرب اﻟﺗﻲ ﻻ ﯾﻣﻛن أﺟراءھﺎ ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺎ ﻟﺧطورﺗﮭﺎ )ﻣﺛﻼ ﻓﯾروﺳﺎت ،أﺷﻌﮫ ﻛوﻧﯾﮫ ،ﻗﻧﺎﺑل ذري( أو ﻟﻌدم إﻣﻛﺎﻧﯾﺔ أﺟراءھﺎ )ﺗﺟﺎرب اﻟﻔﺿﺎء أو ھﻧدﺳﺔ اﻟﺟﯾﻧﺎت(. طرﯾﻘﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻣﻌﺎﯾﻧﺔ :resampling methodﺗﻌﺗﺑر طرق إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻣﻌﺎﯾﻧﺔ أداة رﺋﯾﺳﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺎت اﻟﺣدﯾﺛﺔ وﺗﺗﺿﻣن طرق إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻣﻌﺎﯾﻧﺔ: ﺗﻛرار رﺳم ﻋﯾﻧﺔ ﻣن ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺗدرﯾب. ﺗﻛوﯾن ﻧﻣوذج اﻻھﺗﻣﺎم ﻣﻊ ﻛل ﻋﯾﻧﺔ ﺟدﯾدة. ﻓﺣص ﺟﻣﯾﻊ اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻣﻛوﻧﺔ وﻣن ﺛم رﺳم اﻻﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺟﺎت اﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 3 ﺗﻌﺎرﯾف أﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ: اﻟﻧظﺎم :Systemﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣن اﻷﺷﯾﺎء ﺗﺗﻔﺎﻋل وﺗﻌﺗﻣد ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺿﮭﺎ اﻟﺑﻌض واﻟﻧظﺎم ﯾﺣﺗوي ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌض اﻟﻣدﺧﻼت اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺣﺗﺎج ﻟﻠﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ ﻹﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﻣﺧرﺟﺎت اﻟﻣطﻠوﺑﺔ. اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت او اﻟﻛﯾﺎﻧﺎت : Entitiesوھﻰ اﺷﯾﺎء أو ﻛﯾﻧوﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻟﻧﺎ ﺑﮭﺎ اھﺗﻣﺎم ﺧﺎص )ﻣﻛوﻧﺎت اﻟﻧظﺎم(. ﺻﻔﺎت )اﻟﻣواﺻﻔﺎت( : Attributesوھﻰ ﺧﺻﺎﺋص ﻟﻠﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت )ﻣﻣﯾزات وﺧﺻﺎﺋص اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت( )اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات variablesواﻟﻣﻌﻠﻣﺎت Parametersواﻟﻌواﻣل .(Factors ﻧﺷﺎط : Activityأي ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﺗﺳﺑب ﺗﻐﯾﯾر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧظﺎم. ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم : State of the systemوھﻰ ﻣﺗﻐﯾرات ﺗﺻف ﻛل اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت وﺻﻔﺎﺗﮭﺎ واﻷﻧﺷطﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻋﻧد ﻟﺣظﺔ ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ )وﺻف ﻛل اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت واﻟﻣواﺻﻔﺎت واﻟﻧﺷﺎطﺎت ﻓﻲ وﻗت ﻣﻌﯾن( )ھﻲ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﺿرورﯾﺔ ﻟوﺻف اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻓﻲ اي وﻗت ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻷھداف اﻟﻧظﺎم( اﻟﺣدث :Eventوھو ﺗﻐﯾﯾر ﻓوري ﯾﻐﯾر ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 4 ﻣﺛﺎل :ﻣﺻﻧﻊ ﯾﻧﺗﺞ ﺑﺿﺎﻋﺔ وذﻟك ﺑﺗﺻﻧﯾﻊ ﻗطﻊ ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ وﺗﺟﻣﯾﻌﮭﺎ .اﻷﺟزاء اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ھذا اﻟﻧظﺎم ھﻲ ﻗﺳم اﻟﺗﺻﻧﯾﻊ اﻟذي ﯾﺻﻧﻊ اﻟﻘطﻊ وﻗﺳم اﻟﺗﺟﻣﻊ اﻟذي ﺑﺟﻣﻊ ھذه اﻟﻘطﻊ ﻹﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﺑﺿﺎﻋﺔ وﻗﺳم اﻟﻣﺷﺗرﯾﺎت اﻟذي ﯾؤﻣن اﻟﻣواد اﻟﺧﺎﻣﺔ وﻗﺳم اﻟﺷﺣن اﻟذي ﯾﺟﮭز اﻟﺑﺿﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺷﺣن وﻗﺳم ﻣراﻗﺑﺔ اﻹﻧﺗﺎج اﻟذي ﯾﺳﺗﻘﺑل اﻟطﻠﺑﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﺿﺎﻋﺔ وﯾﻘﺳم اﻟﻌﻣل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻘﯾﺔ اﻷﻗﺳﺎم. ﻓﻲ ھذا اﻟﻧظﺎم: • اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت ھﻲ :اﻻﻗﺳﺎم ،اﻟطﻠﺑﺎت ،اﻷﺟزاء ،اﻟﺑﺿﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺦ • اﻟﻧﺷﺎطﺎت ھﻲ :ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﺻﻧﻊ وﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﺟﻣﯾﻊ وﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﺷراء اﻟﻣواد اﻟﺧﺎم وﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﺟﮭﯾز واﻟﺷﺣن اﻟﺦ. • اﻟﺻﻔﺎت ھﻲ :اﻟﻛﻣﯾﺔ ﻟﻛل طﻠب ،ﻧوع اﻟﻘطﻌﺔ ،ﻋدد اﻟﻣﻛﺎﺋن ﻓﻲ ﻛل ﻗﺳم اﻟﺦ • ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻣﺎﻛﯾﻧﺎت )ﻣﻌطﻠﺔ ام ﻏﯾر ﻣﻌطﻠﺔ ام ﻣﺗوﻗﻔﺔ( )ﺗﻌﻣل ،ﻻ ﺗﻌﻣل ام ﻣﺗوﻗﻔﺔ( ،ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺑﺿﺎﺋﻊ )ﻣطﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻣواﺻﻔﺎت ام ﻏﯾر ﻣطﺎﺑﻘﺔ( ،ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠطﻠﺑﺎت )ھل ﺟﻣﯾﻊ اﻟطﻠﺑﺎت ﻣﺗوﻓر ام ﻏﯾر ﻣﺗوﻓرة( .... • اﻟﺣدث :ﺗوﻗف ﺧط اﻟﺗﺟﻣﯾﻊ او ﺧط اﻻﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﺑﻌض ﻣن اﻷﻣﺛﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌض اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت واﻟﺻﻔﺎت واﻷﻧﺷطﺔ: ﻣﺛﺎل :ﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣرور • • • • • ﻣﺛﺎل: • • • • • اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت :ﺳﯾﺎرات ،اﻟطرق ،إﺷﺎرات اﻟﺿوﺋﯾﺔ اﻟﺻﻔﺎت :اﻟﺳرﻋﺎت ،اﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺎت ،ﻋدد اﻹﺷﺎرات ،طول اﻟﺷﺎرع ،ﻋرض اﻟﺷﺎرع أﻧﺷطﺔ :ﺳواﻗﺔ ،ﺗﻌﺑﯾد اﻟطرق ،ﺗرﻛﯾب اﻻﺷﺎرة ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺳﯾﺎرة )ﺟدﯾدة ام ﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﺔ( )ﺗﻌﻣل ام ﻻ ﺗﻌﻣل( ،ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟطرﯾﻖ )ﻣﻔﺗوح ام ﻣﻐﻠﻖ( ،ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻹﺷﺎرة )ﺗﻌﻣل ام ﻣﻌطﻠﺔ( اﻟﺣدث :ﺗﻌطل اﻟﺳﯾﺎرة ،ﺗوﻗف اﻹﺷﺎرة اﻟﺿوﺋﯾﺔ ،اﻏﻼق اﻟطرﯾﻖ ﻧظﺎم اﻟﺑﻧك اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت :زﺑﺎﺋن اﻟﺻﻔﺎت :داﺋن ،ﻣدﯾن أﻧﺷطﺔ :ﺳﺣب ﻧﻔدي ،إﯾداع ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن ﻣﻐﻠﻖ ام ﻧﺷط ،اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن ﻣﻧﺗظرﯾن اﻟﺣدث :اﻟوﺻول ،اﻟﻣﻐﺎدرة. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 5 ﻣﺛﺎل :ﻧظﺎم اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت • • • • • اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت :ﻣﻛﺎﻟﻣﺎت ،رﺳﺎﺋل اﻟﺻﻔﺎت :طول اﻟﻣﻛﺎﻟﻣﺔ ،ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ ﺟﮭﺔ اﻟرﺳﺎﻟﺔ أﻧﺷطﺔ :ارﺳﺎل ،ﺗوﺻﯾل ،اﺟراء اﻟﻣﻛﺎﻟﻣﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :اﻟﻣﻛﺎﻟﻣﺎت )ﻣﻌطﻠﺔ ام ﻻ( )واﺿﺣﺔ ام ﺳﯾﺋﺔ( .اﻟرﺳﺎﺋل )ﺗم اﺳﺗﻼم اﻟرﺳﺎﻟﺔ ام ﻓﺷل( )ﺗم ارﺳﺎل اﻟرﺳﺎﺋل ام ﻣﺎ زاﻟت ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻻﻧﺗظﺎر( اﻟﺣدث :اﻟوﺻول اﻟﻰ اﻟﺟﮭﺔ اﻟﻣطﻠوﺑﺔ. ﻣﺛﺎل: • • • ﻧظﺎم اﻟﺳوق اﻟﻣرﻛزي اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت :اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن ،اﻟﺑﺿﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺻﻔﺎت :ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﺗﺳوق أﻧﺷطﺔ :ﺷراء ،دﻓﻊ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺷﺗرﯾﺎت ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺑﺿﺎﺋﻊ )ﺻﺎﻟﺣﺔ ام ﻣﻧﺗﮭﯾﺔ اﻟطﻼﺣﯾﺔ( ،ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠزﺑﺎﺋن )راﺿﻲ ﻋن اﻟﻣﻌروض ام ﻏﯾر راﺿﻲ(. اﻟﺣدث :اﻟوﺻول ،اﻟﻣﻐﺎدرة. ﻣﺛﺎل: • • • ﻧظﺎم ﺧط اﻻﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت :اﻟﻣﺎﻛﯾﻧﺎت اﻟﺻﻔﺎت :اﻟﺳرﻋﺔ ،اﻟﺳﻌﺔ أﻧﺷطﺔ :اﻟﻠﺣﺎم ،اﻻﺧﺗﺎم ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻣﺎﻛﯾﻧﺔ )ﻣﺷﻐوﻟﺔ ،ﻋﺎطﻠﺔ ،ﻣﺗوﻗﻔﺔ( اﻟﺣدث :اﻟﺗوﻗف. • • • • ﻣﻼﺣظﺔ :ﻓﻲ اﻷﻣﺛﻠﺔ أﻋﻼه ﺗم إﻋطﺎء ﺑﻌض اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت واﻟﺻﻔﺎت واﻷﻧﺷطﺔ ،ﺣﯾث ان وﺻف ادق ﻟﻠﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت واﻟﺻﻔﺎت واﻷﻧﺷطﺔ ﯾﺗطﻠب ﻣﻌرﻓﺔ اﻷھداف اﻟﺗﻲ ﻣن اﺟﻠﮭﺎ ﻧدرس اﻟﻧظﺎم. ﻣﺛﺎل :اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﺎﺳب • اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت :اﻟﻣﻌدات ; Hardwareاﻟﺟﺎﻣﻊ ; Compilerاﻟﻌﺎﻣل operator ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 6 • اﻟﺻﻔﺎت :اﻟﻧوع ،اﻟﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ ،اﻟﺳرﻋﺔ ،type, cost, speedاﻟﻘدرة او اﻟﺳﻌﺔ ;capacity, usageاﻟﻣﮭﺎرة واﻟراﺗب واﻟﻌﻣر skills, salary and واﻻﺳﺗﺧدام age • • أﻧﺷطﺔ :اﻋطﺎل اﻟﻣﻌدات ،hardware faultsاﻟﺗﺟﻣﯾﻊ ;compilationاﻟﺗﻔﺎﻋل ﻣﻊ اﻟﺣﺎﺳب • ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﻌدات )ﺗﻌﻣل ام ﻻ ﺗﻌﻣل( • اﻟﺣدث :ﺗوﻗف اﻟﻣﻌدات او اﻟﺟﺎﻣﻊ. ﺑﯾﺋﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗوﺛر ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم وﺗﺣدث ﺧﺎرﺟﺔ .ﻓﻣن اﻟﻣﮭم ﺟدا ﻋﻧد ﻧﻣذﺟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ان ﻧﻣﯾز اﻟﺣدود ﺑﯾن اﻟﻧظﺎم وﺑﯾﺋﺗﮫ وھذا ﯾﺗﺣدد ﺑﻣﻌرﻓﺔ اﻷھداف ﻣن وراء دراﺳﺔ ھذا اﻟﻧظﺎم. ﻣﺜﺎل :ﻓﻔﻲ ﻣﺜﺎل اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺧﺎرج ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﮭﻲ ﺟﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﻜﻦ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻟﻠﻌﺮض ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﯿﺠﺐ اﺧﺬ ذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎر إذ ان ھﻨﺎك ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ووﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت وﯾﺴﻤﻰ ھﺬا ﺗﻐﺬﯾﺔ ﺧﻠﻔﯿﺔ وﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ھﺬا اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻧﺸﺎط ﻣﻦ اﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم. ﻣﺜﺎل :ﻓﻔﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰي ،ان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻌﺮوض اﻟﺘﺮوﯾﺠﯿﺔ ﻟﯿﺴﺖ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﻮﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﻦ ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﺸﺮاء وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﮭﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم. ﻣﺜﺎل :ﻓﻔﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺒﻨﻚ ،ﯾﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ اﻟﻌﻤﯿﻞ اﻟﺴﺤﺐ او اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎرج اﻟﺒﻨﻚ ،ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﺎت اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ .وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺎن اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﺎت اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻔﯿﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﯿﺴﺖ ﻣﻨﮫ وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﮭﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم. اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ: ﺗﺼﻨﻒ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻰ داﺧﻠﯿﺔ وﺧﺎرﺟﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ: • اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ :Endogenous Activitiesوﺗﺼﻒ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 7 • اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ :Exogenous Activitiesوﺗﺼﻒ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم. ﻣﺜﺎل - :ﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎل اﻟﺒﻨﻚ ،ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺳﺤﺐ اﻟﻜﺎش ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﻨﻚ ھﻮ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰي ،ﻓﺎن اﻟﺘﺮوﯾﺞ واﻟﻌﺮوض ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ. اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ: ﺗﺻﻧف أﻧﺷطﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻰ ﻣﺣددة وﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﻛﻣﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ: • اﻷﻧﺷطﺔ اﻟﻣﺣددة :Deterministic Activitiesوھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺑﻣﻛن ﺗﺣدﯾد ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺟﮭﺎ ﺑﺷﻛل ﺗﺎم ﻣن ﻣدﺧﻼﺗﮭﺎ. • اﻷﻧﺷطﺔ اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ :Stochastic Activitiesوھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﺗﻐﯾر ﺗﺄﺛﯾرھﺎ ﺑﺷﻛل ﻋﺷواﺋﻲ وﺗﻛون ﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺟﮭﺎ إﻣﻛﺎﻧﯾﺎت ﻣﺗﻌددة ﺗوﺻف ﺑﺗوزﯾﻊ اﺣﺗﻣﺎﻟﻲ) .ﯾﻛون ﻟﮭﺎ واﺣد او اﻛﺛر ﻣن اﻟﻣدﺧﻼت ﻣﺗﻐﯾرات ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ واﻟﻣدﺧﻼت اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﺗؤدي اﻟﻲ ﻣﺧرﺟﺎت ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ( اﻣﺛﻠﺔ :اﻷﻧﺷطﺔ اﻟﻣﺣددة: -1ﺗﺟرﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻛﯾﻣﯾﺎء ،ﺣﺎﻣض ﻣﻊ ﻗﺎﻋدة ﯾﻌطﻲ ﻣﻠﺢ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺎء ﻓﮭﻧﺎ اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻌروﻓﺔ ﻣﺳﺑﻘﺎ، -2ﺣﺳﺎب ﺣﺟم ﺧزان ﻣﺎء ﯾﻛون اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺎم ﺑﻧﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻣدﺧﻼت وھﻲ اﺑﻌﺎد اﻟﺧزان. اﻣﺛﻠﺔ :اﻷﻧﺷطﺔ اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ: -1اﻟوﻗت اﻟذي ﺗﺳﺗﻐرﻗﮫ آﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺗﺟﻣﯾﻊ ﯾوﺻف ﺑﺗوزﯾﻊ اﺣﺗﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻣﺎ ان اﻟزﻣن ﺑﯾن اﻋطﺎل اﻟﺔ ﯾﺗﻐﯾر ﺑﺷﻛل ﻋﺷواﺋﻲ -2وﻗت اﻻﻧﺗظﺎر ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﯾدﯾن ،ﻋدد اﻻﺷﺧﺎص اﻟﻣﻧﺗظرﯾن ﻓﻲ ﺑﻧك ،اﻟوﻗت اﻟذي ﯾﺣﺗﺎﺟﮫ اﻟزﺑون ﻟﻠﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺧدﻣﺔ. -3اﻧﺗﺷﺎر ﺟزﯾﺋﺎت ﻏﺎز ﻣﻌﯾن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺿﺎء. -4رﻣﻲ ﺣﺟر اﻟﻧرد. اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ: ﺗﺼﻨﻒ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﻐﻠﻘﺔ او ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺣﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ: ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 8 • اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﻠﻘﺔ :Closed systemوھﻲ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺄﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺧﺎرﺟﯿﺔ )أي اﻧﮭﺎ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺗﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻧﺸﺎطﺎت داﺧﻠﯿﺔ(. • اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﺘﻮﺣﺔ :Open systemوھﻲ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ )أي اﻧﮭﺎ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺗﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻧﺸﺎطﺎت ﺧﺎرﺟﯿﺔ وداﺧﻠﯿﺔ( اﻣﺜﻠﺔ :اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﻔﺘﻮح. • اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺒﻨﻜﻲ :ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﺄﺛﺮ اﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺧﺎرج اﻟﺒﻨﻚ .ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﯿﻞ ﺳﺤﺐ وﺗﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻨﻘﻮد ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎرج اﻟﺒﻨﻚ وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﺎت اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻔﯿﺔ. • اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ :ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﺄﺛﺮ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﮭﺎ اﻻﻧﺴﺎن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ ،ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻗﺪ ﯾﻘﻮم اﻻﻧﺴﺎن ﺑﺘﻄﻮﯾﺮ واﻟﺘﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ أداﺋﮫ . ﻣﺜﺎل :اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﻐﻠﻘﺔ. اﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼت اﻟﻜﯿﻤﯿﺎﺋﯿّﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻢ داﺧﻞ أوﻋﯿﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻐﻠﻘﺔ. اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ: ﺗﺼﻨﻒ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﺪدة او ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ: • ﻓﺎﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺣددة :Deterministic systemsھﻲ اﻻﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺣدد ﺣﺎﻟﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺟدﯾدة ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺗﻣﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣن ﺧﻼل ﻧﺷﺎط ﻣﻌﯾن ) .اﻟﺗﻲ ﻻ ﺗﺣﺗوي ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺗﻐﯾرات ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ وھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ واﺣدة وﻣﺣددة ﻣن اﻟﻣﺧرﺟﺎت( • ﻓﺎﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ :Stochastic systemاو اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ ﻏﯾر اﻟﻣﺣددة nondeterministic systemsاو اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ او اﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ ھﻲ اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﺿﻣن ﻣﻘدار ﻣن اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻧﺗﻘﺎل ﻣن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﻟﻰ أﺧرى وﻏﺎﻟﺑﺎ ﯾﻛون اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣدﺧﻼت ﯾؤدي اﻟﻰ ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺧرﺟﺎت. ﻣﺛﺎل :ﻧظﺎم ﻣﺣدد ،ﺟدول ﻣواﻋﯾد ﻋﻧد طﺑﯾب اﻻﺳﻧﺎن إذا اﻟﺗزم ﻛل ﻣرﯾض ﺑﻣوﻋده ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﯾﻛون ھﻧﺎك زﻣن وﺻول ﻣﺣدد. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 |Modeling and Simulations|Page 9 ﻣﺛﺎل :ﻧظﺎم ﻋﺷواﺋﻲ )اﻟﺑﻧك( ،ﻓوﻗت اﻻﻧﺗظﺎر ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﯾدﯾن ﻓﻲ ﺑﻧك ،وﻋدد اﻻﺷﺧﺎص اﻟﻣﻧﺗظرﯾن ﻓﻲ ﺑﻧك ،اﻷﺷﺧﺎص اﻟواﺻﻠﯾن اﻟﻰ ﺑﻧك ﺗﻛون ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ، ﻣﺛﺎل :ﻧظﺎم ﻋﺷواﺋﻲ ،ﻧظﺎم اﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت ،ﻓﺎﻟﻣﻛﺎﻟﻣﺎت و اﻟرﺳﺎﺋل اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ او اﻟواﺻﻠﺔ وﻋددھﺎ ﯾﻛون ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ. اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ: ﯾﻣﻛن ﺗﻘﺳﯾم اﻟﻧظم او ﺗﺻﻧﯾﻔﮭﺎ ﻣن ﺧﻼل ﺗﺄﺛرھﺎ ﺑﺎﻟزﻣن اﻟﻲ ﻧظم ﻣﺳﺗﻣرة او ﻧظم ﻣﺗﻘطﻌﺔ .ﻧﺟد ان ھﻧﺎك اﻟﻘﻠﯾل ﻣن اﻟﻧظم ﺑﻣﻛن وﺻﻔﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺗﻘطﻌﺔ او ﻣﺳﺗﻣرة ﺑﺻورة داﺋﻣﺔ او ﺑﺷﻛل ﻛﺎﻣل وﻟﻛن ﻋﻠﻲ ﺣﺳب اﻏﻠب ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻧظﺎم اذا ﻛﺎﻧت اﻏﻠب ﺻﻔﺎﺗﮫ ﻣﺗﻘطﻌﺔ ﯾوﺻف ﺑﺎﻧﮫ ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ واذا ﻛﺎﻧت ﻣﻌظم ﺻﻔﺎﺗﮫ ﻣﺳﺗﻣرة ﯾوﺻف اﻟﻧظﺎم ﺑﺎﻧﮫ ﻣﺳﺗﻣر .وﻓﻲ ﻛﻠﺗﺎ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺗﯾن ﺗﺣدث اﻟﺗﻐﯾرات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠزﻣن. • اﻻﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺗﻘطﻌﺔ :Discrete systemوھﻰ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻐﺑر ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات او اﻟﺻﻔﺎت ﻋﻧد ﻧﻘﺎط ﻣﺗﻘطﻌﺔ ﻏﯾر ﻣﺳﺗﻣرة ﺧﻼل ﻓﺗرة زﻣﻧﯾﺔ ) ﺗﺗﻐﺑر ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ ﻏﯾر ﻣﺳﺗﻣر ﻣﻊ اﻟزﻣن(. • اﻻﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮة :Continuous systemھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ واﺣﺪ او اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﺑﺼﻮرة ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮة ﺧﻼل ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ )وھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﺒﮭﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 10 ﻣﺘﺼﻞ وﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ() او ان طﺒﯿﻌﺔ أو ﺳﻠﻮك اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪث ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻧﺴﺒﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮة( اﻣﺛﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣﺗﻘطﻊ: -1ﻓﻲ ﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣﺻﻧﻊ ھو ﻧظﺎم ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ :ﻓﻣﺛﻼ اﻛﺗﻣﺎل اﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﺑﺿﺎﺋﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺻﻧﻊ ﯾﺣدث ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ ،وﺻول طﻠب ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﺿﺎﺋﻊ ﯾﺣدث ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ اﻟﺦ. -2ﻓﻲ ﻧظﺎم اﻟﺳوﺑرﻣﺎرﻛت ھو ﻧظﺎم ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ ﻻن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر )ﻋدد اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن ﻋﻧد اﻟﻛﺎﺷﯾر( ﯾﺗﻐﯾر ﻋﻧد وﺻول زﺑون او ﯾﻐﺎدر زﺑون اﻟﻛﺎﺷﯾر. -3ﻓﻲ ﻧظﺎم اﻟﺑﻧك ھو ﻧظﺎم ﻣﺗﻘطﻊ ﻻن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر وھو ﻋدد اﻟﻌﻣﻼء ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻧك ﯾﺗﻐﯾر ﻋﻧد وﺻول ﻋﻣﯾل ﺟدﯾد او ﻋﻧد اﻧﺗﮭﺎء اﻟﺧدﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻣﯾل ،اﻟﺷﻛل اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﯾوﺿﺢ ﻋدد اﻟﻌﻣﻼء ﻋﻧد ﻓﺗرة زﻣﻧﯾﺔ اﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮ: -1اﺗﺟﺎه ﺣرﻛﺔ طﺎﺋرة ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺎر ﺟوي ﻟﺗﺻﺣﯾﺢ اﻻﺗﺟﺎه Smoothﺗﺣت ﺗﺣﻛم اﻟطﯾﺎر اﻵﻟﻲ ﺗﺣدث ﺑﺷﻛل ﻧﺎﻋم ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 11 -2اﻟﺗﯾﺎر اﻟﻛﮭرﺑﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﻣﺗوﻟد ﻣن اﻟﻣﺎء اﻟﻣﺗدﻓﻖ ﻣن ﺳد ﻣﻌﯾن ﯾﺗﻐﯾر ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﺳﺗﻣر وﯾﻌﺗﻣد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌدل ﺗدﻓﻖ اﻟﻣﯾﺎه ﻣن اﻟﺳد .او ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻣﺎء ﻓﻲ اﻟﺳد ﯾﺗﻐﯾر ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﺗﺻل ﺣﯾث ﯾﺗﺄﺛر ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﺗﺻل ﺑﺎﻷﻣطﺎر واﻟﺗﺑﺧر وﻏﯾرھﺎ. ﻧﻣذﺟﺔ اﻻﻧظﻣﺔ Modeling of a system ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌض اﻷﺣﯾﺎن ﻧدرس اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻟﻔﮭم اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﺑﺑن ﻣﻛوﻧﺎﺗﮫ او دراﺳﺔ ﻛﯾﻔﯾﺔ ﻋﻣل اﻟﻧظﺎم ﺗﺣت ظروف ﺟدﯾدة ،وﻓﻲ ﺑﻌض اﻻوﻗﺎت ﻣن اﻟﻣﻣﻛن ﺗﺟرﺑﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻧﻔﺳﮫ وﻟﻛن ﻟﯾس داﺋﻣﺎ ﻣﺛﻼ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻧظم اﻟﺟدﯾدة اﻟﺗﻲ ﻟم ﺗوﺟد ﺑﻌد او اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﺗﻛون ﻓﻲ ﺷﻛل اﻓﺗراﺿﺎت او ﻓﻲ ﻣرﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺗﺻﻣﯾم، وﺣﺗﻰ اذا ﻛﺎﻧت اﻟﻧظم ﻣوﺟوده ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﺗﻛون ﻏﯾر ﻣطﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺎ ﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎرھﺎ. ﻣﺛﺎل :ﺗﻘﻠﯾص ﻋدد ﻣﺎﻛﯾﻧﺎت اﻟﺻراﻓﺔ ﻟدراﺳﺔ اﻻﺛر ﻓﻲ ﺧطوط اﻻﻧﺗظﺎر ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﯾودي اﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﯾص اﻟﻌﻣﻼء وﻧﻘل ﺣﺳﺎﺑﮭم اﻟﻲ ﺑﻧك اﺧر. اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج :وﯾﻌﺮف اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج Modelﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮫ ﺗﻤﺜﯿﻞ )او ﺑﻨﺎء( ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻐﺮض دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ -1ﻓﮭﻢ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺼﻮرة أﺳﮭﻞ او ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 12 -2اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﯿﮫ وﺗﺤﺴﯿﻨﮫ او -3ﻣراﻗﺑﺔ ﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺗﮫ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﺮوري وﺿﻊ اﻋﺘﺒﺎرات ﻟﻠﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪث ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات اوﺗﻐﯿﺮات ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم وھﻮ ﻓﻲ طﻮر اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ وھﺬه اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎت ﺗﻤﺜﻞ داﺧﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ،واﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﻠﻲ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ ھﻮ ﺗﺒﺴﯿﻂﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم، وﻣﻦ ﺟﮭﺔ اﺧﺮي ﻧﺠﺪ ان اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻮﻓﺮ اﯾﺠﺎز ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ واﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وھﻮ ﻗﯿﺪاﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ. أﻧواع اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج :ﺗﻘﺳم اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻰ ﻓﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ ورﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ: • اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ )ﻣﺎدﯾﺔ( :Physical Modelsھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺑﻧﻲ ﺑﻣواد ﺣﺳﯾﺔ. اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ ﺗﻣﺛل ﻧظم ﻓﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ وﺗﻛون ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﺑﻧﺎﺋﮭﺎ ﻣﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺟدا وﻟذﻟك ﯾﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ اﻟﻘول ﺑﺎناﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ ھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﻛون ﻟﮭﺎ وﺟود ﻣﺎدي وﻣﺣﺳوس وﺗﺷﻐل ﺣﯾز. • اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ) ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺔ او ﺗﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ( :Mathematical Modelsواﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺒﻨﺎﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺎت رﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ) ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ،دوال ،ﺟﺪاول ،رﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺦ( اﻣﺛﻠﺔ ﻧﻣﺎذح ﻓﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ: -1ﺑﻧﺎء ﻧﻣوذج ﻟطﺎﺋرة ﻓﻲ ﻣرﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺗﺻﻣﯾم وذﻟك ﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎر ھﯾﻛﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﺣت ظروف ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ ﻣﺛل اﻻرﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺷﺎھﻘﺔ ،اﻟﺣرارة اﻟﻣﻧﺧﻔﺿﺔ وﻏﯾرھﺎ ... -2ﺑﻧﺎء ﻧﻣوذج ﺑﺎﺧرة ﻣن اﺟل اﺧﺗﺑﺎرھﺎ ﺗﺣت ظروف ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ ﻣﺛل ﻗدرة ﺗﺣﻣل اﻟرﯾﺎح اﻟﺷدﯾدة، اﻟﻣطر ... اﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻧﻤﺎذج رﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ: -1ﻛﺮه ﻣﺘﺪﺣﺮﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻄﺢ اﻟﻤﺎﺋﻞ :ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﻘﯿﺎس اﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻄﻌﮭﺎ ﻛﺮه ﻣﺘﺪﺣﺮﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺎﺋﻞ دون ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات ﺧﺎرﺟﯿﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻘﺎوﻣﺔ اﻟﮭﻮاء ﺗﻢ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ: ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 13 اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ 𝑡𝑡 𝑦𝑦 1 2 3 4 5 1 4 9 16 25 ﻓﺄﻧﻧﺎ ﻧﻼﺣظ وﺟود ﻧﻣوذج رﯾﺎﺿﻲ ﯾرﺑط ذﻟك وھو 𝑦𝑦(𝑡𝑡) = 𝑡𝑡 2 اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج: ﺗﻘﺳم اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ اﻟﻲ ﻧﻣﺎذج ﺳﺎﻛﻧﺔ Staticوﻧﻣﺎذج ﺣرﻛﯾﺔ : dynamic • اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﺳﺎﻛﻧﺔ :وھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻐﺑر ﺣﺎﻟﺗﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟزﻣن. • ﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﺣرﻛﯾﺔ أو اﻟدﯾﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﯾﺔ :وھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻐﺑر ﺣﺎﻟﺗﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟزﻣن. ﻣﻼﺣظﺔ :ﯾﺷﯾر اﻟﻧﻣوذج اﻟدﯾﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﻲ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻣوذج وﻗت اﻟﺗﺷﻐﯾل ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم ،ﻓﺈن اﻟﻧﻣوذج اﻟﺛﺎﺑت ھو ﻧﻣوذج اﻟﻧظﺎم وﻟﯾس أﺛﻧﺎء وﻗت اﻟﺗﺷﻐﯾل ﻣﺛﺎل) :ﻧﻣوذج ﺳﺎﻛن( ﻧﻣوذج ﻟﺑﻧﺎء اﻟﻣﺳﺟد اﻟﺣرام ،ﻧﻣوذج ﻟﺑﻧﺎء طﺎﺋرة او ﺳﯾﺎرة او ﺑﺎﺧره ﻣوﺿوﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺑﺎك ﻣﻛﺗب ﺳﯾﺎﺣﻲ. ﻣﺛﺎل) :ﻧﻣوذج دﯾﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﻲ( ﻧﻣوذج اﻟﺔ اﻻﺣﺗراق اﻟداﺧﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻣل اﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎء. اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج: ﺗﻘﺳم اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟرﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ اﻟﻲ ﻧﻣﺎذج ﺳﺎﻛﻧﺔ Staticوﻧﻣﺎذج ﺣرﻛﯾﺔ dynamicوﻧﻣﺎذج ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة .Simulation ﺗذﻛﯾر :اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟدﯾﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﯾﺔ ﺗﺳﺗﻣر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺗﻐﯾﯾر ﻣﻊ اﻹﺷﺎرة إﻟﻰ اﻟوﻗت ﻓﻲ ﺣﯾن أن اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﺛﺎﺑﺗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗوازن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘرة. ﻣﺛﺎل: -1ﺳﺎﻛﻧﺔ :ﻧﻣوذج رﯾﺎﺿﻲ ﻟﺣﺳﺎب ﺣﺟم ﻏرﻓﺔ او اﺳطواﻧﺔ. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 14 -2ﺣرﻛﯾﺔ-: ﻧﻣوذج رﯾﺎﺿﻲ ﻣﻣﺛل ﺑﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻠﯾﺔ ﻹﯾﺟﺎد درﺟﺔ ﺣرارة ﻗﺿﯾب ﻣﻌدﻧﻲ ﻣوﺿوع ﻓﻲ ﻓرﻓﺔذات درﺟﺔ ﺣرارة ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ. ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺣرﻛﺔ اﻟﻛواﻛب ﺣول اﻟﺷﻣس ﺗﻣﺛل ﻧﻣوذج رﯾﺎﺿﻲ دﯾﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﻲ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﺷﻣﺳﻲ. -3ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة :ﺗﻛوﯾن ﻧﻣوذج ﺣﺎﺳوﺑﻲ ﯾﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻗﯾﺎدة اﻟﺳﯾﺎرة .ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ ﻛود ﻣﻌﯾن ﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻧظﺎم ﻣﻌﯾن اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج: اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج: • ﺗﺳﮭﯾل اﻟﻔﮭم :ﯾﻛون اﻟﻧﻣوذج اﺑﺳط ﻣن اﻟﻧظﺎم ،وﯾﻔﮭم اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﺑﺳﮭوﻟﺔ أﻛﺑر ﻋﻧد ﺗﻣﺛﯾل ﻋﻧﺎﺻره واﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﺑﯾﻧﮭﺎ ﺑطرﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺑﺳطﺔ. • ﺗﺳﮭﯾل اﻻﯾﺻﺎل :ﺑﻣﺟرد ﻓﮭم اﻟﻘﺎﺋم ﺑﺣل اﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم ﻏﺎﻟﺑﺎ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻠزم ﺗوﺻﯾل ھذا اﻟﻔﮭم اﻟﻲ آﺧرﯾن. • اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل :ﯾﻣﻛن ﻟﻠﻧﻣوذج اﻟرﯾﺎﺿﻲ ان ﺗﺗﻧﺑﺄ ﺑﻣﺎ ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﯾﺣدث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑل إﻻ اﻧﮫ ﻗد ﻻ ﯾﻛون %100دﻗﯾﻘﺎ ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 15 ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ :ﯾﺴﻤﻰ ﻧﺸﺎط اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺬي ﺳﻮف ﻧﻌﺮﻓﮫ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ. ﻓواﺋد اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج: • اﻟﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ :ﺗﻜﻮن ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻗﻞ ﺑﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرب اﻟﺸﺒﯿﮭﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺠﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ،ﻛذﻟك ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﺪوث اﻟﺨﻄﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﻗﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ﻋﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ. • اﻟوﻗت :ﺗﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ﻣﻦ ﺿﻐﻂ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ )ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺗﺤﺖ ﻓﺘﺮات زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻣﻮﺳﻌﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إن ﺗﺤﺎﻛﻰ ﺑﻌﺪة دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺣﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻓﺎﺋﻘﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ( • اﻟﺳﮭوﻟﺔ :ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج أﺳﮭﻞ ﻛﺜﯿﺮا ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ. • ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟﻣﺧﺎطر :ﯾﺴﻤﺢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ﺑﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺮ ﻓﻲ اﺟﺮاءات ﻣﺤﺪدة. • ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺤﻠﻮل :ﺗﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻋﺪد ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﻠﻮل. • -اﻟﺘﻌﻠﯿﻢ واﻟﺘﺪرﯾﺐ :ﺗﻌﺰز اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج و ﺗﻘﻮى اﻟﺘﻌﻠﯿﻢ و اﻟﺘﺪرﯾﺐ. اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻌرﯾف اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة :اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ ﺗﻘﻠﯾد او ﺗﻣﺛﯾل ﻟﻌﻣل ﻧظﺎم ﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺗرة زﻣﻧﯾﺔ ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ .وﺳواء اﺟرﯾت اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﯾدوﯾﺎ او ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﺣﺎﺳب ﻓﺈﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺷﺗﻣل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗوﻟﯾد ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﻣﺻطﻧﻊﻟﻠﻧظﺎم وذﻟك ﻟﻐرض اﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﺧواص اﻟﺗﺷﻐﯾﻠﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ. أو ﯾﻣﻛن ان ﻧﻌرﻓﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺎت ﺗﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻟم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ او اﻟﻧظماﻟﻣوﺟودة ﺧﻼل ﻓﺗرة ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ ﺳواء ﻛﺎﻧت ﺗﻠك اﻟﻧظم ﯾدوﯾﺔ او ﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺔ. واﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻌﺗﻣد ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗطوﯾر ﻧﻣوذج ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ،ھذا اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﯾﻛون ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻛل ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣناﻟﻔرﺿﯾﺎت اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻌﻣل اﻟﻧظﺎم وھذه اﻟﻔرﺿﯾﺎت ﺗﻛون ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻛل ﻋﻼﻗﺎت راﺿﯾﺔ او ﻣﻧطﻘﯾﺔ او رﻣزﯾﺔ ﺑﯾن ﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت اﻟﻧظﺎم .ﺑﻌد ﺗطوﯾر وﺗﻔﻌﯾل validateاﻟﻧﻣوذج ﻧﺳﺗﺧدﻣﮭﺎ ﻹﺟراء ﺑﻌض اﻟﺗﺟﺎرب اﻟﺗﻲ ﻻ ﯾﻣﻛن إﺟراﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ وذﻟك ﻟﻐرض ﻣﻼﺣظﺔ واﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﺗﻐﯾرات واﻟﺗﻔﺎﻋﻼت اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﻗد ﺗطرأ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺟراﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﺔ. ﯾﻣﻛن اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻟدراﺳﺔ اﻟﻧظم ﻓﻲ ﻣرﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺗﺻﻣﯾم ﻗﺑل ﺑﻧﺎء اﻟﻧظﺎم او ﻓﻲ ﻣرﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾلﻛﺄداة ﺗﺣﻠﯾل ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﺗﺄﺛﯾر ﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﻧظم اﻟﻣوﺟودة او ﻛﺄداة ﺗﺻﻣﯾم ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﻛﻔﺎءة اﻟﻧظم اﻟﺟدﯾدة ﻋن ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 16 طرﯾﻖ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣﺗﻐﯾرة ﻣن اﻟﺣﺎﻻت وﻛذﻟك ﯾﻣﻛن ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻐﯾرات ﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﻣدي ﺗﺄﺛﯾرھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اداء اﻟﻧظﺎم. اھداف اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة: ﻣﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ ﻧﺳﺗطﯾﻊ ان ﻧﻘول ﺑﺎن اھداف اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺗﻠﺧص ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ: -1دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ. -2ﺗﺣﻠﯾل ﺑﻌض اﻻﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﻘﺗرﺣﺔ. -3ﺗﺧطﯾط وﺗﺻﻣﯾم أﻧظﻣﺔ أﻛﺛر ﺗطورا ً. اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﺣﺎﺳوب: • ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌض اﻻﻣﺛﻠﺔ ﯾﻣﻛن ﻟﻠﻧﻣوذج ان ﯾﺗطور ﺣﺗﻰ ﯾﻛون ﺳﮭل ﻟﻛﻲ ﯾُﺣل ﺑواﺳطﺔ طرق رﯾﺎﺿﺔ ﻣﺛل اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻻت اﻟﺗﻔﺎﺿﻠﯾﺔ ،ﻧظرﯾﺔ اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻت ،اﻟطرق اﻟﺟﺑرﯾﺔ او اي ﺗﻘﻧﯾﺎت رﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ اﺧري واﻟﺣل ﻋﺎدة ﯾﺣﺗوي ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻌواﻣل اﻟﻌددﯾﺔ ﺗﺳﻣﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯾس ﻛﻔﺎءة اﻟﻧظﺎم. • وﻣﻊ ذﻟك ﻧﺟد ان ﻣﻌظم اﻟﻧظم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ ﺗﻛون ﻣﻌﻘدة ﺣﺗﻰ اﻧﮫ ﻋﻣل ﻧﻣﺎذج ﻟﺣﻠﮭﺎ رﯾﺎﺿﮭﺎ ﯾﻛون ﺻﻌﺑﺎ وﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺣﺎﻻت ﻧﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻣﺑﻧﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺣﺎﺳوب .وھذا اﻟﻧوع ﻣن اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم ﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺻرﻓﺎت اﻟﻧظﺎم ﺧﻼل ﻓﺗرة زﻣﻧﯾﺔ ﻣﻌﯾﻧﮫ ﻣن اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ،وﺗﺟﻣﻊ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧظم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ واﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻣﻧﺗﺟﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم ﻟﺗطوﯾر ﻣﻘﯾﺎس ﻛﻔﺎءة اﻟﻧظﺎم. • اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺔ ﻟدراﺳﺔ اﻟﺗﺟﺎرب اﻟﻣﺗﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ ﺗم ﺗﻌرﯾﻔﮭﺎ ﻣن ﻗﺑل اﻟﻌﻠﻣﺎء ﺑﻌدة طرق ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﻣﻧﮭﺎ اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ: اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ اﺳﻠوب ﻋﻣﻠﻲ ﻟﺣل اﻟﻣﺷﺎﻛل اﻟﻣﺗﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ ﻣن ﺧﻼل ﺗﺻﻣﯾم ﻧظﺎم ﺗﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ وﻣن ﺛم ﺗﺻﻣﯾم ﻧﻣﺎذج ﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺔ ﻟﻣﻌرﻓﺔ اﻟﺗﻐﯾرات اﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ واﻟدﯾﻧﺎﻣﯾﻛﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﻣن ﺧﻼل اﺧﺗﺑﺎر اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟذي ﯾﺣﺎﻛﯾﮫ. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 17 ﻣﺗﻰ ﻧﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة )ﻣﺗﻲ ﺗﻛون اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اداة ﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ(: ﻣن اﻟﻌواﻣل اﻟﺗﻲ ﺟﻌﻠت اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻣن أﻛﺛر اﻻدوات اﻧﺗﺷﺎرا وﻗﺑوﻻ ﻓﻲ ﺣل اﻟﻣﺷﺎﻛل اﻟﺻﻧﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻟطﺑﯾﺔ واﻟﺑﯾﺋﯾﺔ وﻏﯾرھﺎ: -1اﻟﺗطور اﻟﻛﺑﯾر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺣﺎﺳﺑﺎت -2ووﺟود ﺑراﻣﺞ ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻠﻰ درﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻣروﻧﺔ وﺳﮭوﻟﺔ اﻻﺳﺗﺧدام ﺟﻌل ﻣن اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ ﺣل اﻟﻣﺷﺎﻛل اﻟﺻﻧﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻟطﺑﯾﺔ واﻟﺑﯾﺋﯾﺔ وﻏﯾرھﺎ اﻷﻣر اﻟﺳﮭل. ﺑﻌض ﻣﯾزات اﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة: .1ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎت اﻟﻧظم اﻟﻣﻌﻘدة :اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻣﻛن ﻣن دراﺳﺔ وإﺟراء ﺗﺟﺎرب ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛل ﻣﺎ ﯾﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻧظم اﻟﻣﻌﻘدة او أي ﺟزء ﻣﻧﮫ. .2ﻣﻌرﻓﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﯾر اﻟﺑداﺋل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم :ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺗﻐﯾرات اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻟﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎﺗﯾﺔ واﻹدارﯾﺔ واﻟﺑﯾﺋﯾﺔ ودراﺳﺔ ورؤﯾﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﯾر اﻟﺑداﺋل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧﻣوذج. .3اﻟﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯾدة :ﻣن ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﻧﻣذﺟﺔ واﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﻣﻛن اﻛﺗﺷﺎف او ﺗﺣﺻﯾل ﻋﻠﻰ طرق او ﻗواﻋد او ﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎت ﺟدﯾدة وﻣﻔﯾدة ﺟدا ﻟﺗﺣﺳﯾن إداء اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ دون ﺗﻌطﯾل اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺎت اﻟﺟﺎرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ. .4ﺗﺣدﯾد اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﻣﮭﻣﺔ :ﺑﺗﻐﯾﯾر ﻗﯾم ﻣدﺧﻼت اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة وﻣﻼﺣظﺔ اﻟﻣﺧرﺟﺎت اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺟﺔ ﯾﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ ﺗﺣدﯾد اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﻣﮭﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ وﻣﻌرﻓﺔ اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻔﺎﻋل ﺑﮭﺎ. .5دﻋم اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺑﺣﺛﯾﺔ :ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻟدﻋم اﻟﻛﺛﯾر ﻣن اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺑﺣﺛﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظرﯾﺔ. .6ﺗﻘﺑل ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت وﺗﺻﺎﻣﯾم ﺟدﯾدة :ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﺗﺟرﺑﺔ ﺗﺻﺎﻣﯾم وﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﺟدﯾدة ﻟم ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم ﻣن ﻗﺑل ﻣﻣﺎ ﺑﺳﺎﻋد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﮭﻣﮭﺎ وﺗﻘﺑﻠﮭﺎ ﻋﻧد ﺣدوﺛﮭﺎ. .7اﻟﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻣن اﻟﺣﻠول :ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻣن طرق اﻟﺣﻠول اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾﻠﯾﺔ واﻟﺗﺄﻛد ﻣن ﺻﺣﺗﮭﺎ. .8ﺗﻘﻠﯾل اﻟوﻗت :ﺗﻣﻛن اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻣن ﺿﻐط اﻟوﻗت )ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﺗﺣت ﻓﺗرات زﻣﻧﯾﺔ ﻣوﺳﻌﺔ ﯾﻣﻛن إن ﺗﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﺑﻌدة دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام ﺣﺎﺳﺑﺎت ﻓﺎﺋﻘﺔ اﻟﺳرﻋﺔ( ﺑﻌض اﻟﻌﯾوب او اﻟﺻﻌوﺑﺎت ﻣﺛل: -1اﻟﺧﺑرة واﻟﺗدرﯾب :ﺑﻧﺎء ﻧﻣوذج ﺗﺣﺗﺎج اﻟﻰ ﺧﺑرة وﺗدرﯾب ﻛﻣﺎ ان ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﻋطﺎء ﻧﻔس اﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ ﻟﺷﺧﺻﯾن ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﯾن ﻗد ﯾﺑﻧﻲ ﻛل ﻣﻧﮭﻣﺎ ﻧﻣوذج ﻟذﻟك وﺗﻛون ھﻧﺎك أﺷﯾﺎء ﻣﺷﺗرﻛﺔ ﺑﯾن اﻟﻧﻣوذﺟﯾن اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺟﯾن وﻟﻛن اﻻﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎت ﻛﺑﯾرة وﻟن ﯾﻛون اﻟﻧﻣوذﺟﯾن ﻣﻧطﺑﻘﯾن. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 18 -2ﺗﻔﺳﯾر اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ :ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة او ﻣﺧرﺟﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻗد ﺗﻛون ﻣن اﻟﺻﻌب ﺗﻔﺳﯾرھﺎ وﺧﺎﺻﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧت اﻟﻣدﺧﻼت ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ﻣﻣﺎ ﯾﻧﺗﺞ ﻋﻧﺔ ﻣﺧرﺟﺎت ﻋﺷواﺋﯾﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻛون ﻣن اﻟﺻﻌب ﻣﻌرﻓﺔ ﻓﺑﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧت اﻻﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎت اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺟﺔ ھﻲ ﻣن اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ام ﻣن ﺗﻔﺎﻋل ﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﺑﯾن اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات. -3اﻟﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ واﻟوﻗت :اﻟﻧﻣذﺟﺔ واﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾل وﺟﻣﻊ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻐرض اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺳﺗﻐرق وﻗﺗﺎ طوﯾل ﺟدا وﺗﻛون ﻣﻛﻠف أﺣﯾﺎﻧﺎ ﻛﻣﺎ ان اﺧﺗﺻﺎر او ﻗطﻊ ﺑﻌض اﻟﻣﺻﺎدر ﻓﻲ ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﺑﻧﺎء اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﻋﻧﮭﺎ ﻧﻣوذج ﻧﺎﻗص ﻻ ﯾﻧطﺑﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ وﺗﺻﺑﺢ ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺟﮭﺎ ﻋدﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻔﺎﺋدة. ﻣﺟﺎﻻت اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻖ :area of application اھم ﻣﺟﺎﻻت اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻖ ھﻲ: -1اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻖ اﻟﺻﻧﺎﻋﻲ Manufacturing application -2ﺗﺻﻧﯾﻊ اﺷﺑﺎه اﻟﻣوﺻﻼت Semiconductor manufacturing -3اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻘﺎت اﻟﻌﺳﻛرﯾﺔ Military application -4ھﻧدﺳﺔ اﻟﺑﻧﺎء وادارة اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﯾﻊ Construction engineering and project management -5اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻘﺎت اﻟﻣﻧطﻘﯾﺔ وﺗطﺑﯾﻘﺎت اﻟﻧﻘل وﺗطﺑﯾﻘﺎت اﻟﺗوزﯾﻊ Logic, transportation and distribution application -6ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﻌﻣل Business process simulation -7اﻧظﻣﺔ اﻻﻧﺳﺎن Human systems ﻣﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ ﯾﻣﻛن ﺣﺻر ﻣﺟﺎﻻت اﺳﺗﺧدام ﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ ﺣل ﻧوﻋﯾن ﻣن اﻟﻣﺳﺎﺋل: -1اﻟﻣﺳﺎﺋل اﻟﻧظرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺟﺎﻻت اﻟﻌﻠوم اﻟرﯾﺎﺿﯾﺔ واﻟﻔﯾزﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ واﻟﻛﯾﻣﯾﺎﺋﯾﺔ :ﻣﺳﺎر اﻟﺟﺳﯾﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى ،ﺣﺳﺎب ﻣﺳﺎﺣﺔ اﻻﺷﻛﺎل اﻟﻣﺣددة ﺑﻣﻧﺣﻧﯾﺎت ،ﺗﺣوﯾل اﻟﻣﺻﻔوﻓﺎت ،ﺣل اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻻت. -2اﻟﻣﺳﺎﺋل اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻘﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ادارة وﺗﻧظﯾم ﻣﺧﺗﻠف ﻣﺟﺎﻻت اﻟﻧﺷﺎط اﻹﻧﺳﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﺛل: oﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ اﻻﻧﺗﺎج اﻟﺗﻛﻧوﻟوﺟﯾﺔ :اﻟﺗﺧزﯾن ،اﻟﺻﻔوف. oﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اﻻﻧظﻣﺔ اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ :اﻟﺗﺧطط واﻟﺗﻧظﯾم اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي. oﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻣﺳﺎﺋل اﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ :ھﺟرة اﻟﺳﻛﺎن وﻣﺷﺎﻛل اﻟﺳﻠوك. oﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟطب اﻟﺣﯾوي :دورات اﻟدم وﻋﻣل اﻟدﻣﺎغ. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 19 oﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺳﺎﺋل اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾل اﻟﺗﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﻹﻧﺟﺎز اﻻﺳﺗراﺗﯾﺟﯾﺎت واﻟﺗﻛﺗﯾك اﻟﺣرﺑﻲ. اﻟﻣراﺣل اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ ﻟﺗﺻﻣم )ﺗطوﯾر( ﻧﻣوذج ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة: ھﻧﺎﻟك ﺧطوات ﻋرﯾﺿﺔ ﯾﻣﻛن اﻻھﺗداء ﺑﮭﺎ ﻹﻋداد دراﺳﺔ ﺑواﺳطﺔ اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة وﺑﻧﺎء ﻧﻣوذج ﻣﻧﺎﺳب ﻛﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺧطوات واﻟﻣﺧطط اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﯾن: ﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ او ﺗﺸﻜﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ : Problem formulation • ھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ اھﻢ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة • ﺗﺘﻢ ھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ﺑﻌﺮض واﺿﺢ وﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ او اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺮاد دراﺳﺘﮫ • وﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎون ﻣﻊ واﺿﻌﻲ اﻟﻘﺮارات واﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﺗﮭﻤﮭﻢ ﺣﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ • ﺛﻢ وﺿﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج رﯾﺎﺿﻲ اوﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﻮﯾﺮ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ. وﺿﻊ اﻷھداف واﻟﺧطﺔ اﻟﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ Setting of objectives and overall plan • اﻷھداف ﺗﺗﻛون ﻣن اﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ اﻟﻣراد اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﺑﮭﺎ ﺑواﺳطﺔ اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة • وھﻧﺎ ﯾﺟب اﻷﺧذ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻋﺗﺑﺎر ﻓﯾﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧت اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ اﻟطرﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺣل ھذه اﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ • وﻣن ﺛم ﯾﺗم وﺿﻊ اﻟﺧطﺔ اﻟﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﺣﯾث ﯾﻣﻛن دراﺳﺔ اﻟﺑداﺋل اﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم واﻟﻣوارد اﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﻣن ﻓرﯾﻖ ﻋﻣل وﻣواد وﻣﺻﺎدر ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ اﻟﺦ. ﺗﻔﮭم وﺑﻧﺎء اﻟﻧﻣوذج Model conceptualization and Building • ﺑﻧﺎء ﻧﻣوذج ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم ﯾﻌﺗﺑر ﻓﻧﺎ وﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺣﯾث ﯾﻛون ھﻧﺎك ﺧطوط رﺋﯾﺳﯾﺔ ﯾﻣﻛن اﻻھﺗداء ﺑﮭﺎ ﻟﺑﻧﺎء اﻟﻧﻣوذج. • ﻣن اﻟﺿروري اﻟﺑدء ﺑﻧﻣوذج ﺑﺳﺑط ﺛم زﯾﺎدة اﻟﺗﻔﺎﺻﯾل اﻟﻣﮭﻣﺔ ﺣﺳب اﻟﺿرورة ﺣﺗﻰ ﻧﺻل إﻟﻰ درﺟﺔ اﻟﺗﻌﻘﯾد اﻟﻣطﻠوﺑﺔ واﻟﺗﻲ ﻻ ﯾﺟب ان ﺗزﯾد ﻋن اﻟﮭدف اﻟﻣراد ﻣﻊ اﻷﺧذ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻋﺗﺑﺎر اﻧﮫ ﻟﯾس ﻣن اﻟﺿروري ان ﯾﻛون اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﺻورة طﺑﻖ اﻷﺻل ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﺑل ان روح اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ھﻲ اﻟﻣطﻠوﺑﺔ . ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 20 • ﻛﻣﺎ ﯾﻧﺻﺢ ﺑﺄن ﯾﻛون اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﯾد ﻣن اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻣﯾﻊ ھذه اﻟﻣراﺣل وذﻟك ﻷﺧذ وﺟﮭﺔ ﻧظرة ﻓﻲ اﻻﻋﺗﺑﺎر وﻣﺳﺎﻋدﺗﮫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﮭم واﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ. ﺟﻣﻊ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت : Data collection • • • • ھﻧﺎك ﺗﻔﺎﻋل ﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﺑﯾن ﺑﻧﺎء اﻟﻧﻣوذج وﺟﻣﻊ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺿرورﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻣدﺧﻼت ﻓﺑﻘدر دﻗﺔ وﺻﺣﺔ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻣدﺧﻠﺔ ﯾﺗﻘرر ﺻﺣﺔ ودﻗﺔ اﻟﻧﻣوذج وﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻣﺧرﺟﺎت واﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ. ﺗﺟب ﺟﻣﻊ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻣدﺧﻼت أﺛﻧﺎء وﺿﻊ اﻟﺧطوط اﻟرﺋﯾﺳﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻧﻣوذج وزﯾﺎدﺗﮭﺎ ﺣﺳب ﺗطور ﺗﻌﻘﯾد اﻟﻧﻣوذج. اﻷھداف اﻟﻣوﺿوﻋﺔ ﺗﺣدد ﻧوع اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻣطﻠوب ﺟﻣﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻣﺛﻼ ﻋﻧد دراﺳﺗﻧﺎ ﻟﻧظﺎم طﺎﺑور ﻟﻐرض ﻣﻌرﻓﺔ طول طﺎﺑور اﻻﻧﺗظﺎر وﻣﺗوﺳط زﻣن اﻻﻧﺗظﺎر ﻣن اھم اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻣطﻠوب ﺟﻣﻌﮭﺎ أزﻣﻧﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﯾن اﻟوﺻول ﻟﻠزﺑﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﻠﺗﺣﻘﯾن ﺑﺎﻟطﺎﺑور ﻹﯾﺟﺎد ﺗوزﯾﻊ زﻣن ﻣﺎ ﺑﯾن اﻟوﺻول وأزﻣﻧﺔ اﻟﺧدﻣﺔ ﻹﯾﺟﺎد ﺗوزﯾﻊ زﻣن اﻟﺧدﻣﺔ ﻟﮭم. ﻣن اﻟﺿروري ﻣﻌرﻓﺔ اﻟﺗوزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺗﺎرﯾﺧﯾﺔ اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ أﯾﺿﺎ ﻟﺗﺻدﯾﻖ validateﻧﻣوذج اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة. ﺗرﺟﻣﺔ اﻟﻧﻣوذج Model translation • ﺗرﺟﻣﺔ اﻟﻧﻣوذج اﻟﻰ ﺷﻛل ﻣﻔﮭوم ﻣن اﻟﺣﺎﺳب وذﻟك اﻣﺎ -1ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ ﺑراﻣﺞ ﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺔ -2اﺳﺗﺧدام ﺣزﻣﺔ ﺑراﻣﺞ ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺛل ARENA or SIMAN or GPSS/PC • وذﻟك ﻻن ﻣﻌظم اﻷﻧظﻣﺔ اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ ﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﻋﻧﮭﺎ ﻧﻣﺎذج ﺗﺣﺗﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺗﺧزﯾن ﻛم ھﺎﺋل ﻣن اﻟﻣﻌﻠوﻣﺎت وإﻟﻰ ﻣﻘدرة ﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺔ ﻗوﯾﺔ ﻣﻼﺣظﺔ :ﺑراﻣﺞ اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻣذﻛورة أﻛﺛر ﻗوة وﻣروﻧﺔ ﻣن اﻟﺑراﻣﺞ اﻟﻣﻛﺗوﺑﺔ اﻟﺗﯾﻘن او اﻟﺗﺣﻘﻖ او اﻟﺗﺄﻛد Verification • اﻟﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻓﯾﻣﺎ إذا ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎن اﻟﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻣﺗرﺟم ﻟﻠﻧﻣوذج ﯾﻘوم ﻓﻌﻼ ﯾﻌﻣل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺣﺎﺳوب وﯾﻘوم ﺑﺎﻷداء اﻟﻣطﻠوب واﻟﺻﺣﯾﺢ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 21 • ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧﻣﺎذج اﻟﻣﻌﻘدة ﻣن اﻟﺻﻌب ﺗرﺟﻣﺔ اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﺑﺷﻛﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻛﺎﻣل ﺑﻧﺟﺎح ﺑل ﯾﺗطﻠب اﻷﻣر اﻟﻛﺛﯾر ﻣن اﻟﺗﺻﺣﯾﺢ واﻟﺗﺟرﯾب ﺣﺗﻰ ﻧﻧﺗﮭﻲ إﻟﻰ ﺑرﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺟﯾد وﻣﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻣن ﺻﻼﺣﯾﺗﮭﺎ. اﻟﺗﺻدﯾﻖ او اﻟﺗﺛﺑﯾت Validation • اﻟﺗﺻدﯾﻖ ﯾﻛون ﺑﺗﺣدﯾد ﻓﺑﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﯾﻣﺛل ﺑﺷﻛل دﻗﯾﻖ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ وﺗﺗم ﺑﻣﻌﺎﯾرة اﻟﻧﻣوذج وذﻟك ﺑﻣﻘﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ وﺗﻌدﯾﻠﮫ إذا ﻟزم اﻷﻣر وھﻲ ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﺗﻛرارﯾﺔ ﺗﺳﺗﻣر ﺣﺗﻰ ﺗﻛون اﻻﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎت ﺑﯾن اﻟﻧﻣوذج واﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﻏﺑر ﻣﮭم،. • ھذه اﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﺗﻌطﻲ ﺑﻌد ﻧظر وﻓﮭم اﻋﻣﻖ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ واﻟﻧﻣوذج. ﺗﺻﻣﯾم اﻟﺗﺟﺎرب : Experimental design • ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺧطوة ﻧﺣدد اﻟﺑداﺋل اﻟﻣراد ﻓﺣﺻﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻣوذج ،وﻏﺎﻟﺑﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺗﻣد ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻹﺟراء اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﻟﺑداﺋل اﻷﺧرى. • ﻛﻣﺎ ﯾﻘرر ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺧطوة طول ﻓﺗرة اﻟﺑدء periodوطول إﺟراءات اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة Simulation runsوﻋدد اﻟﺗﻛرارات ﻟﻛل إﺟراء . اﻹﺟراءات اﻹﻧﺗﺎﺟﯾﺔ واﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾل : Production runs and analysis • ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم ھذه اﻟﺧطوة ﻟﺗﻘدﯾر ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯾس اﻷداء Performance Measuresﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﻲ. ھل ﻧﻘوم ﺑﺈﺟراءات اﻛﺛر؟ : More runs • اﻋﺗﻣﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺣﻠﯾل اﻹﺟراءات اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻘرر ﻓﯾﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﻧﺎك ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻹﺟراءات إﺿﺎﻓﯾﺔ وﻣﺎ ھﻲ اﻟﺑداﺋل اﻟﻣﻣﻛن اﺳﺗﺧداﻣﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻹﺟراءات. ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 22 : Documentation and reporting اﻟﺗوﺛﯾﻖ واﻟﺗﻘرﯾر • ﺗوﺛﯾﻖ اﻟﺑراﻣﺞ اﻟﺣﺎﺳوﺑﯾﺔ وﺗوﺛﯾﻖ اﻟﻧﻣوذج ﻧﻔﺳﮭﺎ ﺧطوة ﻣﮭﻣﺔ ﺣﺗﻰ ﯾﻣﻛن اﺳﺗﺧداﻣﮭﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﻣن اي ﺑﺎﺣث ﻛﻣﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﻔﯾدة ﺟدا ﻟﻣن وﺿﻊ اﻟﻧﻣوذج اﺻﻼ ﻟﻛﻲ ﺑﺗذﻛر ﺗﻔﺎﺻل ﻋﻣﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﻌد . زﻣن • اﻟﺗﻘرﯾر ھو اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻧﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻣل ﻛﻠﮫ وھو اﻟذي ﺑﻘدم إﻟﻰ ﺻﺎﻧﻊ اﻟﻘرار وﯾﺗﻛون ﻣن اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ وﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔSummery اﻟﻣﺗﺣﺻل ﻋﻠﺑﮭﺎ ﻣن ﺟﻣﯾﻊ اﻟﺧطوات اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﯾﺟب ان ﺗﺣوي ﻣﻠﺧص . واﺿﺣﺗﯾن ﻟﺻﺎﻧﻊ اﻟﻘرارConclusion ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي. ﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ دExcel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLD) اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام-1 Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 23 ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي. ﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ دExcel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLD) اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام-1 Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 24 أﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة: ھﻨﺎﻟﻚ اﺳﻠﻮﺑﺎن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة: طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻨﺎظﺮ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﻮﻧﺖ ﻛﺎرﻟﻮ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻨﺎظﺮ: ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻗﯿﺪ اﻟﺪارﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻲ ﻣﻨﺎظﺮ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺘﮫ ﺳﮭﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﻨﺎظﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪي اﻻﻛﺜﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎ ھﻮ اﻟﺪواﺋﺮ اﻟﻜﮭﺮﺑﺎﺋﯿﺔ .وذﻟك ﻋن طرﯾﻖ ﺗﺣوﯾل اﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ اﻟﻣراد ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻰ داﺋرة ﻛﮭرﺑﺎﺋﯾﺔ ﻣﻧﺎظرة ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ﻟﺬا ﺗﻄﺒﻖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ذات اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮة اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻰ اﻟﺤﺪ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺼﻌﺐ ﻣﻌﮫ اﻟﺤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ . ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدة اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻟذﻟك ﺳوف ﻧرﻛز ﻋﻠﻰ طرﯾﻘﺔ ﻣوﻧت ﻛﺎرﻟو. طرﯾﻘﺔ ﻣوﻧت ﻛﺎرﻟو: • ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻧﻮاع اﻟﻤﺴﺎﺋﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺨﻠﻠﮭﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺼﻌﺐ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﺠﺎرب طﺒﯿﻌﯿﺔ ﯾﺼﻌﺐ ﺣﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ. • ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﺳﻠﻮب اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﯾﺠﺎد ﻋﯿﻨﺎت ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻧﻈﺮي ﺗﺤﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ اﺧﺬ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﮫ. اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﻮﻧﺖ ﻛﺎرﻟﻮ: .iﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻗﯿﺪ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ. .iiإﯾﺠﺎد داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ. .iiiاﻧﺸﺎء ﻓﺘﺮة اﻻرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ. .ivﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ اﻻرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ )ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺪراﺳﺘﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ(. .vاﺟﺮاء ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة. ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ﻣﺼﻨﻔﺔ وﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮاﺗﮭﺎ: ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ -1اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ) Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLDﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ د .ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 25 continuous distribution اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ﻣﺤﺼﻮر ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯿﻦt • ﺗﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻌﻲ واﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻰ وﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ 𝑇𝑇1 < 𝑡𝑡 < 𝑇𝑇2 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) اﻟﺮﺳﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ داﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺼﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﻘﻄﻊ .• ﯾﺸﻤﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﺮﻧﻮﻟﻲ وذي اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ و ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن وﻏﺒﺮه .• ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع ﯾﺄﺧﺬ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﺤﺪدة ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺘﻐﺒﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ ﺑﻤﻘﺪار ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي. ﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ دExcel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLD) اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام-1 Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6 | M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n s | P a g e 26 :اﻟﺮﺳﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ أﻛﺛر أﻧواع اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم ﻟﻠﺣوادث اﻟﻣﺗﻘطﻌﺔ وذﻟك ﻟﻛﺛرة اﻟظواھر اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻼﺋﻣﮭﺎ:ﻣﻼﺣظﺔ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋ� اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﺑﺮي. ﺗﺎﻟ�ﻒ دExcel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS WORLD) اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎ�ﺎة بﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام-1 Simulation: Principles and Methods by Wayne J. Graybeal -2 Discrete event simulation: A First course, by Lawrence Leemis- 3، Discrete-Event System Simulation: Pearson New International Edition, Jerry Banks, John Carson, by Barry Nelson, David Nico l-4 Computer Simulation Techniques: The definitive introduction!, by Harry Perros.- 5 Discrete event system simulation, by Jerry Banks, Carson, Nelson, Nicon -6