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Hyperbolic Discounting: Why You Make Terrible Life Choices --- 超越折扣：为什么你做出糟糕的人生选择
a
Hyperbolic Discounting: Why You Make
Terrible Life Choices
超越折扣：为什么你做出糟糕的人生选择
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Nir’s Note: This guest post is written and illustrated by Lakshmi Mani, a product
designer working in San Francisco. Discover other reasons you make terrible life
choices like confirmation bias, distinction bias, extrinsic motivation, fundamental
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attribution error, hindsight bias, and peak end rule.
尼尔的笔记：这篇客座文章由拉克什米·马尼撰写和插图，他是一位在旧金山工作的
产品设计师。发现其他导致你做出糟糕生活选择的原因，如确认偏见、区别偏见、
外在动机、基本归因错误、事后偏见和高峰终结规则。
Have you ever had a mounting pile of work you know you need to do but for
some reason didn’t? There’s an important deadline looming, your boss is
breathing down your neck, the pressure is on — all signs are pointing to you
getting it done. Yet you put it off, turn on Netflix, and fantasize about how
you’re going to crush it tomorrow.
你是否曾经遇到过一堆工作堆积如山，明明知道需要完成，但出于某种原因却没有
去做？重要的截止日期逼近，老板紧盯着你，压力倍增——所有的迹象都表明你应
该完成它。然而你却拖延，打开Netflix，幻想着明天如何将其完成得出色。
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You’ve fallen victim to hyperbolic discounting.
你已经成为了夸大贴现的受害者。
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Hyperbolic discounting: Why you make terrible life
choices
超越性贴现：为什么你会做出糟糕的人生选择
CLICK TO TWEET
点击推文
What is Hyperbolic Discounting?
什么是双曲贴现？
Hyperbolic discounting, also called “present bias,” is a cognitive bias, where
people choose smaller, immediate rewards rather than larger, later rewards.
The discounted present value of the future reward follows a mathematical
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curve called a “hyperbola.”
超越折扣，也被称为“现在偏见”，是一种认知偏差，人们倾向于选择较小但即时的
奖励，而不是较大但延迟的奖励。未来奖励的折现现值遵循一个数学曲线，称为
“双曲线”。
Nir’s note: I’ve created a handy research-based workbook to help you to overcome
hyperbolic discounting and stay productive. Download the free PDF “How to Keep
Hyperbolic Discounting from Killing Your Productivity”.
尼尔的注释：我创建了一个基于研究的便捷工作手册，帮助你克服夸张贴现并保持
高效。免费下载PDF文件《如何避免夸张贴现影响你的工作效率》。
Researchers ran a classic experiment that illustrates the phenomenon.
Imagine you’re given 2 choices: get a $100 today or $120 in a week. Here’s
how most people choose:
研究人员进行了一个经典实验来说明这个现象。想象一下，你有两个选择：今天拿
到100美元，或者一周后拿到120美元。大多数人会如何选择：
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But when the same question is asked with the same one week interval, but a
year in the future, we largely choose the bigger reward.
但是当同样的问题在一周后的同一时间被问到，但是是在未来的一年里，我们往往
会选择更大的奖励。
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We are impatient and prefer immediate rewards in the short-term — present
bias. But we’re more patient and wait for better rewards in the long term.
我们很不耐烦，更喜欢短期内的即时回报——现在偏好。但是我们更有耐心，
愿意等待长期内更好的回报。
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Unfortunately, the decisions you have to make in everyday life are not as clear
or easily comparable. Say you’re going on vacation in a few months. How do
you choose between enjoying a cookie right now versus looking good at the
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beach?
不幸的是，你在日常生活中需要做出的决策并不像这么清晰或容易比较。比如说，
你几个月后要去度假。你如何在现在享受一块饼干和在海滩上保持好身材之间做出
选择？
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Many important decisions concerning our health, wellness, finances, and
careers are affected by hyperbolic discounting. All of these choices require
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trading off immediate pleasure for your future good.
许多关乎我们健康、福祉、财务和职业的重要决策都受到了夸张贴现的影响。所有
这些选择都需要在即时的快乐和未来的利益之间做出权衡。
When you procrastinate, you opt for the instant gratification of enjoying
yourself now rather than the future reward of accomplishing the things you
set out to do.
当你拖延时，你选择了即时的享乐，而不是未来完成你计划做的事情所带来的回
报。
You know setting money aside in a 401K is important for your retirement.
However, you instead choose to splurge on an expensive night out with
friends, which is more fun right now, but might not be the best choice for
future you.
你知道将钱存入401K对于你的退休是很重要的。然而，你却选择挥霍在与朋友们
一起昂贵的夜晚上，虽然现在更有趣，但对未来的你可能不是最好的选择。
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Why am I this way?
为什么我会变成这样？
Cognitive biases, like present biases, are mental shortcuts we use, which
generally help us make quick decisions, but don’t always work out for the
best.
认知偏见，比如现在的偏见，是我们使用的心理快捷方式，通常帮助我们做出快速
决策，但并不总是最好的选择。
Our brains were never wired to be truly rational because there is way too
much information in the world for us to process. We evolved instead to make
decisions quickly.
我们的大脑从来没有被设计成完全理性的，因为世界上的信息实在太多，我们无法
全部处理。相反，我们进化出了快速做出决策的能力。
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A caveman did not have to contend with the same complex choices we do
today. Cavewoman Lakshmi never had to choose between eating a pig today
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versus investing it in a pig 401K that would yield a 4X return in the future.
一个穴居人不必面对我们今天所面临的复杂选择。穴居女子拉克什米从未需要在今
天选择吃一只猪还是将其投资于未来能带来4倍回报的猪401K计划。
Our brains were never wired to be truly rational because
there is way too much information in the world for us to
process.
我们的大脑从来没有被设计成完全理性的，因为世
界上的信息实在太多，我们无法全部处理。
CLICK TO TWEET
点击推文
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Under harsher living conditions, we didn’t know if we would survive till the
end of the day so our species evolved to choose the immediate option that
most increased our chance of passing down our genes. Our brains are wired
to choose immediate sure-things rather than the potential of a far-off future
reward.
在更加艰苦的生活条件下，我们不知道自己是否能活到今天结束，所以我们的物种
进化出了选择立即行动的能力，以增加我们传递基因的机会。我们的大脑更倾向于
选择即时的确定事物，而不是遥远未来的潜在回报。
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So.. am I screwed?
那么..我完蛋了吗？
No! There are ways we can get better at making good choices …
不！我们有办法在做出明智选择方面变得更好..
1 . Empathize with your future self
1.
同情你未来的自己
You put things off to future you because it’s easy. It’s easy to assume that
your future self has boundless energy, self-discipline, and motivation.
Unfortunately, that perfect vision of your future self is not reality.
你把事情拖到未来，因为这样很容易。很容易假设你未来的自己拥有无限的精力、
自律和动力。不幸的是，那个完美的未来自己的幻想并不是现实。
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Before putting something off, think about your future mental state — how
tired, drained, and sleepy you will likely be. Consciously evaluating the
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dependability of your future self can serve as motivation to actually do the
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things you want to do today.
在推迟某事之前，考虑一下你未来的精神状态——你可能会有多么疲惫、耗尽和困
倦。有意识地评估你未来自己的可靠性可以成为你今天真正想做的事情的动力。
2. Pre-commitment 2.
预承诺
Hyperbolic discounting tells we’re more likely to procrastinate when decisions
are far away.
超越性贴现告诉我们，当决策离我们很远时，我们更容易拖延。
A pre-commitment is a way to lock future you into a decision. You increase
your chance of success by removing a temptation future you may try and
weasel out of. The idea is to make it hard for your future self to back out.
预承诺是一种将未来的自己约束在一个决定中的方式。通过消除未来的诱惑，你增
加了成功的机会，防止未来的自己找借口逃避责任。这个想法是让你未来的自己难
以退缩。
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Research shows people who commit to saving portions of their future
paychecks to their retirement end up saving more money than others.
研究显示，那些承诺将未来工资的一部分存入退休金账户的人最终比其他人存更多
的钱。
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Subscription meal delivery systems like Freshly and Blue Apron use a similar
pre-commitment to keep customers receiving their food orders automatically.
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By subscribing to healthy food that shows up at your door every week you
increase the odds of eating right when the time comes.
像Freshly和Blue Apron这样的订阅餐饮送餐系统使用类似的预先承诺来确保顾客
自动收到他们的食品订单。通过订阅每周送到你家门口的健康食品，你增加了在合
适的时候吃得健康的可能性。
Other pre-commitment techniques may include planning out your day with a
schedule maker, getting someone else to hold you accountable, or in Nir
Eyal’s case, burning cash if you don’t do the thing you said you would.
其他预承诺技巧可能包括使用日程安排制定计划，让他人对你负责，或者像尼尔·艾
尔那样，如果你没有做你说过的事情，就烧掉现金。
3. Break down big goals into small manageable chunks
3.
将大目标分解成小而可管理的部分
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You set big, lofty goals because they yield massive rewards, right? Not so
much. Big goals, like learning to speak Spanish or losing 20 pounds, take a
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long time to achieve and so are susceptible to the far-off reward curse of
hyperbolic discounting.
你设定宏伟的目标是因为它们能带来巨大的回报，对吗？其实并不完全是这样。像
学习西班牙语或减掉20磅这样的大目标需要很长时间才能实现，因此容易受到远期
奖励的夸张贴现诅咒的影响。
Given the choice between watching TV now (an immediate, but smaller
reward) and working toward your goal (a big, but far away reward), you will
most likely choose the immediate and small reward.
在现在选择看电视（即时的、但是较小的奖励）和朝着目标努力工作（巨大的、但
是遥远的奖励）之间，你很可能会选择即时而小的奖励。
By breaking down big goals into smaller tasks, your reward comes after the
completion of each small chunk instead of at the end. That way, the reward is
no longer a far off possibility but something that is more immediate and
achievable.
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通过将大目标分解为小任务，你的奖励将在完成每个小块之后而不是最后获得。这
样，奖励不再是遥不可及的可能性，而是更加即时和可实现的东西。
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Conclusion
结论
Acknowledging the effect of hyperbolic discounting on our daily decision
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making and consciously evaluating trade-offs between the present and
future, can help you do what you really want. Trust me, future you will be
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thankful.
承认超越折扣对我们日常决策的影响，并有意识地评估现在和未来之间的权衡，可
以帮助你做出真正想要的选择。相信我，未来的你会感激不尽。
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ABOUT NIRANDFAR
NirandFar is about the intersection of psychology, technology, and business. I call it
"Behavioral Design."
I write to help companies design consumer behavior while educating individuals about
behavior change and digital distraction. Feel free to read more about me.
Disclaimer: As an Amazon Associate, I earn commissions from qualifying purchases. Your
purchase helps support my work in bringing you my latest research and writing.
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