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Global Demography PDF
Trigonometry (Mapúa University)
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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
At the end of this lesson, the students are expected to
demonstrate the following:
-
Examine the different international trends and issues in
global population
- Explain the theory of demographic transition and its effects to
global population
-
Synthesize the c oncept globalization in relation to demography
and population
2
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Demography
Birth
Population
Vital Signs
Death
Size
Marriage
Density
Distribution
Income
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Global Population Trend and Issues
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Trends
Issues
-
- Fast and most populous countries
- C hildren per woman (2.4 world ave.)
- Life expectancy (2x or even 3x)
- Ageing
- Shrinking age
Developed countries: support elders
Less developed countries: pop boom
Housing
Education
Food
Working class: more jobs & infra
- Low birth
- High Mortality
- Massive Migration
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GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS
POP >65
(% of
Total
Pop)
POP
GROWTH
RATE
(% Year)
POP < 15
(% of
Total
Pop)
.68
0.50
36
4
6.0
.98
0.51
36
4
30
5.2
1.65
0.56
35
4
1950
47
5.0
2.52
1.80
34
5
2000
65
2.7
6.07
1.22
40
7
2050
74
2.0
8.92
0.33
20
16
2100
81
2.0
9.46
0.04
18
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LIFE
EXPECTANC
Y
(Years at Birth)
TOTAL FERTILITY
RATE
(Births per Woman)
POP SIZE
(Billions)
1700
27
6.0
1800
27
1900
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The Theory of Demographic Transition
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth
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PRE-TRANSITION
Life was short (25-35 years).
Births were many (4-5 per woman).
G rowth was slow (.03 %/year).
Marriage age was late (25 years).
Population was young (680 Million).
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PRE-TRANSITION
Thomas Maltus– 1798 – Essay
Slow population was no accident.
Population- equilibrium –slow growing economy
Faster population growth depressed wages – causing the
mortality to rise due to famine, war, disease. (Positive Check)
Depressed wages also caused postponement of marriage,
resulting in prostitution and other vices including
contraception. (Preventive Check)
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The Theory of Demographic Transition
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth
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MORTALITY DECLINES
Began in Europe 1800, elsewhere 1900 accelerated post WWII
Driven by improvements in public health, hygiene, improvements in
nutrition
Famine mortality declines due to improved food storage and transport
Mortality declines in high income countries continued due to improved
medicine addressing chronic and degenerative diseases
Developing countries: historically rapid increases in life expectancy
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FERTILITY DECLINES
Economic models point to factors that increase the opportunity
cost of children and reduce their benefits especially with women
Reductions in benefits of children from external sources or
government reduce demand further
Effect of c ontrac eptive use
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Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth
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AGE DISTRIBUTION
Mortality declines leads to high young age dependency ratios
53
64
61
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AGE DISTRIBUTION
Fertility declines leads to lower young age dependency
53
64
61
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AGE DISTRIBUTION
Increasing longevity leads to increasing young age dependency
53
64
61
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IMPLICATIONS
o Increased global population
o Fewer children leads to more opportunities for other activities,
higher quality of c hildren
o Mortality decline may lead to longer disabled years or longer
disability free years
o Fiscal implications for aging populations lead to an increasing
burden on the young or the taxpayer
o Aging population problems addressable
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Does demography population affect globalization?
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POLITICAL GLOBALIZATION
Increased population will lead to:
United Nations addressing the problems of the 21st c entury
Nation-state entering into bilateral and multilateral agreements on
labor relations – sending of OFW to the Middle East
Regional political organizations (EU, ASEAN, etc) facing the issues and
c onc erns of their c ommunity
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ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION
Having fewer children gives the women and/or parents to buy what they
needs and sometimes, wants.
Mortality decline leads to the demand for better healthcare services which
might be brought about by global c orporations.
Ageing and shrinking population lead to higher taxes imposed by imported
and exported products.
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CULTURAL GLOBALIZATION
Increased population lead to
Cultural Diversity (differentialism, convergence and hybridity)
Media and communication infrastructure demand
More membership in secularized religious practices and belies (more
activities for the attainment of global peace)
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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
At the end of this lesson, the students are expected to
demonstrate the following:
-
Examine the different international trends and issues in
global population
- Explain of the theory of demographic transition and its effects to
global population
-
Synthesize the c oncept globalization in relation to demography
and population
22
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