Tigray Conflict
Tigray: Geographical Location and
Significance
• Located in the northern part of Ethiopia, the Tigray Region
is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Sudan to the west,
Amhara Region to the south, and Afar Region to the east.
• It holds historical and cultural significance as the birthplace
of ancient civilisations and the Axumite Empire, known for
its rich heritage and archaeological sites.
• The region is home to a diverse population, with the
Tigrayans being the predominant ethnic group, along with
other ethnic communities like the Agew, Irob, and Kunama.
• Tigrinya is the widely spoken language, and the region has
its distinct cultural traditions, including music, dance, and
cuisine.
Key Actors and Parties
1. Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
• The TPLF was a dominant political force in Ethiopia for decades, representing the Tigray
ethnic group and playing a significant role in the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition government.
• It held political power and influence in the Tigray Region until tensions escalated with the
federal government.
2. Federal Government of Ethiopia
Tigray People’s Liberation front
• Led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the federal government represents the central
authority of Ethiopia.
• The government initiated military action against the Tigray region, aiming to restore federal
control and diminish the power of the TPLF.
3. Regional Forces
• Tigray Regional Forces are composed of various armed groups aligned with the TPLF,
including local militias and former members of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front.
• They have been engaged in armed resistance against the federal government's intervention
in Tigray.
Abiy Ahmed
Political Context
• The Tigray War is rooted in a longstanding political power struggle
between the TPLF and the federal government of Ethiopia.
• The TPLF was a dominant force within the EPRDF, the ruling
coalition in Ethiopia until 2018, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
assumed office.
• Prime Minister Abiy implemented political reforms, which led to the
dissolution of the EPRDF and the formation of the Prosperity Party,
reducing the TPLF's influence.
40th Anniversary of the TPLF; Mekelle, Ethiopia
• The TPLF resisted these changes, asserting that they marginalised
the Tigray region and undermined their political power.
• This power struggle and political tensions escalated, ultimately
leading to the outbreak of armed conflict in Tigray.
Angela Merkel and Abiy Ahmed on October 30, 2018; Berlin
Causes of the Tigray War (1)
1. Political Power Struggles: The conflict arises from a
power struggle between the TPLF and the federal
government, as the TPLF lost influence after political
reforms introduced by Prime Minister Abiy.
2. Perceived Marginalisation: The TPLF and its supporters
in Tigray have long held grievances of political and
economic marginalisation, alleging a lack of
representation and development in the region.
3. Dissolution of the EPRDF: The dissolution of the
EPRDF, which had been in power for decades,
disrupted the political balance and heightened tensions
between the TPLF and the federal government.
Abiy Ahmed
Causes of the Tigray War (2)
1. November 2020 Regional Election: The Tigray regional
government conducted a regional election despite the
federal government's decision to postpone all elections
due to the pandemic, resulting in increased tensions and
confrontations.
2. Control of Strategic Territories: Tigray's strategic location
near the borders of Eritrea and Sudan, along with vital
infrastructure and resources, contributed to the conflict as
both sides sought control over these territories.
3. Human Rights Concerns: Reports of human rights
abuses and war crimes committed by both sides further
escalated the conflict and deepened animosity between
the TPLF and the federal government.
November 2020 Regional Election
Timeline of the Conflict
• November 2020: Tensions escalate as the Tigray regional
government conducts a regional election, defying the federal
government's decision to postpone elections due to the pandemic.
• November 4, 2020: The federal government launches a military
operation, stating it is in response to an attack by Tigray regional
forces on a federal military base in Tigray.
• November-December 2020: Intense fighting ensues between
federal forces and Tigray regional forces, leading to casualties and
displacement of thousands of people.
• November 28, 2020: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declares victory,
claiming that federal forces have taken control of the Tigray region.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Reports of widespread human rights abuses,
including killings, sexual violence, and displacement, emerge from
the conflict zone.
• Ongoing Conflict: Despite the declaration of victory, sporadic
fighting and instability persist, hindering efforts towards a lasting
resolution.
Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement
• The Tigray War has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis,
affecting millions of people in the region.
• Reports indicate widespread violence, including extrajudicial
killings, sexual violence, and other human rights abuses, leading
to significant civilian casualties.
• Thousands of people have been forcibly displaced from their
homes, seeking refuge in overcrowded camps or neighbouring
regions, exacerbating the strain on resources and infrastructure.
American aid to Tigrai people
• Access to essential services such as food, water, healthcare,
and education has been severely disrupted, leaving vulnerable
populations at risk.
• Humanitarian organisations and agencies have been working to
provide aid, but challenges persist due to limited access,
insecurity, and logistical constraints.
Refugee camp in Tigray
International Response and Diplomatic Efforts
• The Tigray War has garnered significant attention from the
international community, with various actors responding and engaging
in diplomatic efforts.
• Calls for de-escalation and the protection of civilians have been made
by regional organisations such as the African Union (AU) and the
United Nations (UN).
• Mediation attempts have been made by neighbouring countries,
including Sudan and the African Union, to facilitate dialogue between
the conflicting parties.
• Humanitarian aid has been provided by international organisations
and donor countries to address the urgent needs of affected
populations.
• Efforts to investigate human rights abuses and hold perpetrators
accountable have been initiated by international bodies and human
rights organisations.
US secretary meets Foreign Minister of Ethiopia; Addis Ababa;
March 15th 2023
Implications of the Tigray War for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa
1. Political Consequences:
• The Tigray War has strained the unity and stability of Ethiopia,
exacerbating ethnic tensions and widening political divisions.
• It has challenged the federal government's authority and raised questions
about the country's governance structure and ethnic-based federalism.
2. Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis:
• The conflict has led to a significant humanitarian crisis, with millions in
need of assistance and widespread displacement.
• The influx of refugees into neighboring countries, such as Sudan, has
strained resources and stability in the region.
3. Security Challenges:
• The Tigray War has created security challenges within Ethiopia, with the
potential for the conflict to spill over into neighboring regions and
exacerbate existing regional tensions.
• It has also diverted attention and resources from addressing other security
concerns, such as regional conflicts or terrorism threats.
4. Economic Impact:
• The conflict has disrupted economic activities in Tigray and neighboring
regions, leading to loss of livelihoods, food insecurity, and damage to
critical infrastructure.
• It has also created uncertainties for investors and hindered Ethiopia's
economic development and regional integration efforts
Tigray Defence Force