Abstract The primary task of the government along with managing its domestic sphere is the formulation of its foreign policy. Scholars over the year have given different approaches of decision making mechanism. The structure, method, policies and goals of different governments are analyzed by scholars and various decision making models are made. In case of Pakistan, the structure of government has been changed occasionally by the frequent military take-overs. And in these years the decision making trends have also been changed. The characteristics of government politics model had been found similar to the mechanism of decision making of the military regimes and the characteristics defined in the rational actor model and organizational process model were similar to the trends of decision making of democratic forces in Pakistan. The process of formulation described in the constitution and Rule of Business (theory) and the actual practice of formulation are two different aspects of foreign policy. In the constitution and Rule of Business, the powers of various actors and organizations involved in the process of formulation of Pakistan are mentioned. However, in practice the process of formulation of foreign policy of Pakistan has been affected by formal and informal factors. The role of the leaders and Foreign Office, the frequent change of governments, inefficiency of the parliamentarians, domestic, regional and international environment and nature of regimes have affected the foreign policy of Pakistan. All these factors have made the process of formulation of foreign policy of Pakistan inconsistent, and therefore, subject to adhocism. The leaders dominated the decision making by the cult of their personalities, democratic setup were not allowed to make its roots strong, Parliamentarians showed lack of interest, foreign office lacked long-term approach in its policies and role of ministry of foreign affairs was bypassed by the security agencies. 1 CHAPTER NO 1: INTRODUCTION 2 INTRODUCTION Foreign policy can be defined as the actions of a state while keeping in mind the external environment and conditions that help in formulation of these actions. In this context, foreign policy is defined as a process in which the decisions are taken to define certain goals, set precedents or lay down the course of action and the actions taken to implement the decisions1. Thus, foreign policy opens three areas of analysis, though different yet interrelated. And these are The influence on foreign policy The formulation of foreign policy The implementation of foreign policy Here our focus is on the formulation of foreign policy. The formulation of foreign policy is a process that deals with number of procedures and other variables including the personalities who render their services to make policy decisions. This area of foreign policy formulation covers a wide area of analysis ranging from institutional and constitutional structure of state to the nature of their decision making elites including their composition, interaction and relations with other elites. The decisions of foreign policy are different from other decisions because they are influenced by domestic as well as by international environment. The role of personality is an important aspect in foreign policy formulation, as they are sitting on key official post which empowers them to take decision on behalf of the society. Similarly, their interaction with other key members of different states, trying to uphold their own national interest, makes foreign policy a complex phenomenon. Individual decision makers are important figures in the formulation of foreign policy formulation, but the government exercises more control in this regard. This is due to their structure and tradition of their dealings with other governments over the periods of history. Governments have best 1 Adeed Dawisha, ed., Islam in Foreign Policy ( London: Cambridge University Press, 1983), 2. 3 possible information available to them to convert their actions and goals into decisions and also command a physical force to legislate. The domestic political systems differ from each other, but there are yet certain uniformities in their structure. In most countries, the role of the head of the state is ceremonial in foreign policy formulation. But in some governments the executive department is combined with the office of the president as the president of United States. In some countries, the power is with the government and in its head, and subsequent ministers concerned with the foreign office, normally called the minister of foreign affairs as in Britain and Secretary of state in United States. Other elements that are essential in policy making are subsidiary departments, civil servants, public opinion and intelligence agencies etc. THE HEAD OF THE GOVERNMENT AND HIS FOREIGN MINISTERS The decisive role is played by the head of the government in presidential system. The members are just his advisors and the real power lies with the president. As president Truman remarked, “The president makes foreign policy”2. In parliamentary governments, major decisions are taken by the cabinet, but the real power lies with prime minister as he is free in choice of its members and general deliberations. The choice of the appointing the foreign minister is purely dependent on the likings of the prime minister but he may be bound by party affiliations or government in coalition. The minister with the portfolio of foreign ministry is sub-ordinate to the prime mister, but prime minister can rest all powers of foreign decision making in the foreign minister, if he desires to do so3. The modern trend is that the prime minister takes major foreign policy decisions. The situation in developing or third world countries is very interesting. They are led by variety of governments ranging from autocratic tendencies to the head of the state 2 Joseph Frankel, International Relation in a Changing World (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), .76 3 Ibid. 4 from the military. Frequent military take overs have been seen in the governments of third world countries that disrupts the process of formulation of foreign policy. In such kinds of regimes, the power is concentrated in the top ranked military leader. The powers of the legislature are determined by the constitutional arrangements, political climate and the character of the personalities in parliament. One extreme is found in United States where the congress enjoys full powers and co-ordinated role with the executive due to the check and balances and the other is the Russia in which the Supreme Soviet does not enjoy any real power. The third world countries lie in between and often when the military leadership comes into power either the constitution is suspended or is put into abeyance. Many scholars in different time period have described the concept of foreign policy. Even the ancient empires had relations with other empires. Since the birth of nation-state system, this phenomenon has attached more significance to it. One of the primary tasks of the country along with managing the domestic affairs is formulation of its foreign policy. This phenomenon has developed with the passage of time. Many theorists have contributed to this aspect. Many approaches have been defined by the critics of foreign policy formulation process. Alison Gram has presented different models by looking at the structures of different governments of the world, which include the rational actor or unitary government model, organizational process model and governmental politics models etc4. These models are based on different levels of analysis and discuss the structure of governments in foreign policy formulation. In these models, the whole process of different governments is defined which include their methods, goals, actions and role of different institutions (government and leadership) in policy formulation. It covers a wide spectrum from identifying the problem to the actual implementation and evaluation of the policy formulated. 4 J.E Dougherty, Contending Theories of International Relations (New york: Harpe and Row Publication, 1981),p.480 5 The models that are most related to the working process of the foreign policy formulation of Pakistan are applied to it. The appropriate model that synchronizes best to the working of the Pakistan foreign policy formulation process are governments politics model, rational actor model and organizational process model. There have been frequent military take overs in Pakistan. The foreign policy making process is affected by the type of government in power. The authoritarian leaders have tried to establish their own monopoly. The government politics model explains the phenomena and the leaders desire to obtain power. The civilian governments had their own methods of dealing with the problem. Whenever they have tried to assert their decision more independently, they have found themselves in tussle with the military. And they have been overthrown by a coup. The government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are the examples. The civilian regimes have taken their decision either rationally as unitary actor or have adopted the standard operating procedures placed before them by the bureaucracy. Thus, rational actor model and organizational process model can be applied on Pakistan. The constitution of a country is considered as it supreme law. The constitution of Pakistan explains the process of foreign policy formulation. It is written in article 90 and 99 of the constitution. These two articles define the role of the federal government including the president, prime minister and the cabinet. The article 99 also grants power to federal government to make rules for the conduct of its business5. The federal government has created various divisions for managing its business. The powers, role and authority of the divisions are written in the Rule of Business. There are several informal factors that affect the foreign policy formulation process of the country and they include the security agencies, media etc. Every division or ministry has its own role in affecting the process of formulation of foreign policy of Pakistan. However, the ministry of foreign has to be consulted on the issues that affect the foreign policy of Pakistan. In schedule two of Rule of Business, the allocation of business to each and every division are written. The issues related to security go to the ministry of defense and issues related to economy go to the ministry of finance and trade. And the foreign office of Pakistan is link with the foreign ministries of 5 http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/part3.ch3.html 6 other countries. Most of the proposals related to foreign affairs are initiated by the ministry of foreign affairs and they give the outline of the foreign policy to be implemented. Besides the informal factors, there are some formal factors categorized as variable and determinants also play a major role in influencing the foreign policy formulation process. Pakistan has been affected by the domestic, regional and international factors in its foreign policy formulation process. Soon after the inception, Pakistan faced domestic, regional and international problems. This newly born state had to deal with these problems. The decision makers of Pakistan tried to pursue the national interest, but the task could not be accomplished easily with two hostile neighbors at the borders and the international environment marked by the cold war in which the two super powers tried to contain each other in every field. In this situation, various options opened for the decision makers, they had to choose from these options. It was not possible for Pakistan to live in isolation. Although in the initial years there was not much of a choice for Pakistan and policy of neutrality was applied, but later they had to fix their priorities. And many policy options opened and our leaders had their own way of dealing with it. These options affected the decision making process of Pakistan. In the initial years, policy of neutrality was followed by Pakistan. Pakistan feared the threat of India. Most of the policies of Pakistan were focused on countering India. Pakistan also feared the threat of communism. And threat of India and communism combined took Pakistan to the lap of United States. During this time various new options kept on opening for the policy makers of Pakistan and they had revisit and refocus their priorities. China emerged as a powerful actor in regional environment for India and Pakistan. After the Pak-Indo war, Pakistan shifted it priorities at the basic level and went towards bilateralism. The relations with the USSR were strained earlier but now Pakistan tried to maintain neutrality in the cold war politics. The environment in the regional and international environment kept on changing and so does the options for our decision makers. The soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Revolution in Iran opened new prospects for Pakistan. The two states bordered Pakistan and it had to respond to the regional environment. Pakistan became the frontline state to counter the soviets designs. The 7 United States aid again started flowing. After the disintegration of soviet Russia, the world became unipolar and the interest of the United States in Pakistan no longer remained. And Pakistan had to shape its policy according the variable in the regional and international environment. And our leaders did what they thought was best in the situation. Although many factors have affected the process of formulation of foreign policy of Pakistan but there were some objectives that were pursued by our policy makers in different eras. Some of the objectives of our foreign policy kept changing with the changing circumstances but some remained consistent. The issue and stand on Kashmir has remained the consistent objective of foreign policy of Pakistan. OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH 1. To evaluate and analyze the theoretical perspective of foreign policy making. 2. To enlist and discuss various models of foreign policy making process and their further application on Pakistan. 3. To identify and evaluate foreign policy making of Pakistan according to the constitution and Rule of Business. 4. To identify the variable and determinants of foreign policy affecting the decision making of Pakistan. 5. To find out and analyze the policy options available to the decision makers and their response to these options. 6. To analyze the actual practice in the formulation of foreign policy of Pakistan. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY Foreign policy is of focal importance as a country cannot live in isolation. The process of foreign policy of Pakistan has remained inconsistent and this study explores the problems, restraints and limitations on the decision makers of Pakistan. This research will help us to come to know about policy flaws and their removal to reach the best policy and pursue our best national interest. The models discussed in the thesis will help the decision makers to study and analyze them, and by combining the suitable points of 8 these models an efficient mechanism can be made for decision making. The foreign policy has been affected by various variable and determinants. The study will enable the decision makers of Pakistan to keep in account the variable and determinants as they influence the decision making process. The study is of significance as it defines the tendencies of the individual leaders, inefficiencies in Parliament and foreign office and by avoiding and overcoming these elements, the process of decision making can be improved. This study will enable the foreign office of Pakistan to make its structure more efficient by taking into account the recommendations suggested in my thesis. RESEARCH METHODOLGY This research is conducted on the following methodology Analytical method Critical and descriptive COLLECTION OF DATA The primary and secondary sources are applied for the collection of data and information. In the primary sources interviews of the various dignified personalities expert in the field of foreign policy are conducted. In the secondary sources, books, journals and electronic sources are used. HYPOTHESIS “Frequent changes of regimes, military take-overs, and personality cult have rendered Pakistan’s foreign policy making process inconsistent, and therefore, subject to adhocism”. CHAPTERIZATION CHAPTER NO.1: INTRODUCTION In this chapter, the definition and the concept of foreign policy will be discussed. 9 CHAPTER NO.2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW The books that are available on the topic will be discussed in this chapter. The different approaches and theories of process of formulation of foreign policy will be discussed. Furthermore, different models of foreign policy will be discussed and will be applied on Pakistan. The models are as under A) The rational actor model B) The organizational process model C) The government politics model D) The adaptive model E) The presidential model F) The administrative model G) The political model CHAPTER NO.3: INSTITUTIONS OF FOREIGN POLICY MAKING: THE PROCESS In this chapter, the constitutional process of foreign policy formulation and the institutions involved in it, including the role of prime minister and president will be discussed. This chapter will elucidate the actual constitutional process of foreign policy formulation. A) The national scene B) Constitutional provisions in formulation of foreign policy C) The role of prime-minister and president D) Role of ministry of foreign affairs E) Role of parliament 10 CHAPTER NO.4: THE VARIABLE, DETERMINANTS AND OBJECTVES OF FOREIGN POLICY FORMULATION In this chapter, the variables, determinants and objectives kept in consideration by the foreign office in the making of foreign policy of Pakistan will be discussed. Furthermore, the options that were available to Pakistan in its foreign policy formulation, and what was done in response to these options will be discussed. CHAPTER NO.5: EVALUATION OF FOREIGN POLICY FORMULATION: THE PRACTICE The process of formulation of foreign policy of Pakistan will be evaluated while keeping in consideration the factors that are involved in the practice. These elements are A) Nature of regime and inconsistency B) Role of ministry of foreign affairs C) Role of security agencies D) Foreign policy subject to adhocism E) Personality cult : human dimension of foreign policy F) Primacy of security and military issues G) Inefficiency of parliament CHAPTER NO.6: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION At the end, the conclusion and recommendations will be discussed. 11