EC 102, Sections AA, BB & CC Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis Boston University Spring, 2023 Professor: Bruce Watson bdwatson@bu.edu Lectures: 102 BB: Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, 12:20 – 1:10 102 CC: Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, 1:25 – 2:15 102 AA: Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, 2:30 – 3:20 Morse Auditorium Office Hours: Via Zoom https://bostonu.zoom.us/j/5491671782 Meeting ID: 549 167 1782 Tuesdays, 3:30 – 5:00 (Starting Jan. 24) Wednesdays, 4:00 – 5:30 (Starting Jan. 25) TFs and Sections: Sections are designed to review material presented in lecture, to go over example problems, and to prepare you for exams. They meet at specific times with your assigned TF. Sections in this course are optional. However, you will find it greatly to your advantage to attend. We are very fortunate to have fantastic TFs, and I’m sure their sections will be very helpful to you. Sections will begin the week of Jan. 23 There will be no sections on Jan. 20 SYLLABUS This course provides an introduction to current economic issues and to basic macroeconomic principles and methods. The economist John Maynard Keynes wrote that "the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood." Economics is not primarily a set of answers, but rather a method of reasoning. By the end of the semester, you will be able to use the analysis practiced in the course to form your own judgments about many of the major economic problems faced by the United States and other countries. Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole. We start with the three key macro variables: GDP, inflation and unemployment. We go on to study economic growth, financial markets, business cycles, and the impact government can have on the economy through monetary and fiscal policy. Along the way, we will cover such topics as interest rates, investment, the exchange rate, and international trade. Course Requirements Exams There will be three multiple choice exams given in the course—two midterms and a final. The dates of the exams are: First Midterm: Fri., Feb. 24 (Covering the material from Jan. 20 to Feb. 17) Second Midterm: Fri., March 31 (Covering the material from Feb. 27 to March 24) Final: BB: Fri. May 12, 12:00 – 2:00 PM CC: Wed., May 10, 12:00 – 2:00 PM AA: Tues., May 9, 3:00 – 5:00 PM (cumulative, but slightly weighted toward material covered after the second midterm) After the midterms and final, your score will be available on the course Blackboard site as soon as possible. You will be able to log in and see only your score. Please Note: It is your responsibility to plan your travel or other events around exam dates. In particular, the date of the final exam is determined by the Registrar and cannot be changed for any reason. Requests to take the final on a different day, including requests for a make-up final, in order to accommodate travel or other end-of-semester plans, will not be considered. No makeup midterms will be given. The lower of each student’s two midterm scores will be dropped from the calculation of their semester grade. If you miss one of the midterms for any reason, you will receive a zero, and the score will be dropped from the calculation of your semester grade. NO MAKEUP EXAMS WILL BE GIVEN. If you miss both midterms for any reason, you will receive a grade of zero for your midterm score. Problem Sets There will be eleven problem sets assigned in MyEconLab during the term. Problem sets are assigned and due according to the schedule below: Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday 1/25/2023 2/1/2023 2/8/2023 2/15/2023 2/22/2023 3/1/2023 3/15/2023 3/22/2023 3/29/2023 4/5/2023 4/12/2023 4/19/2023 4/26/2023 5/3/2023 PS 1 Assigned PS 1 Due; PS 2 Assigned PS 2 Due; PS 3 Assigned PS 3 Due; PS 4 Assigned PS 4 Due PS 5 Assigned PS 5 Due; PS 6 Assigned PS 6 Due; PS 7 Assigned PS 7 Due PS 8 Assigned PS 8 Due; PS 9 Assigned PS 9 Due; PS 10 Assigned PS 10 Due; PS 11 Assigned PS 11 Due Problem sets must be completed and submitted by 11:45PM on the date it is due. The due date on problem sets cannot be extended for any reason. However, the lowest two of the ten scores for the semester will be dropped from the calculation of each student’s semester grade. So, if you cannot do one of the psets some week, that will just be one of the scores that gets dropped. Grading Grades will be determined by the final (40%), the higher your two midterm scores (30%), and the average of the highest eight of your ten problem sets (30%). After your semester weighted average has been determined, your letter grade will be calculated two ways, and if there’s any difference in the result, I’ll give you the higher of the two letter grades which result. Curve In the first calculation, semester grades will determined by a curve. The nature of a curve is that your grade is based on your performance relative to all other students in the class. It does not involve an “absolute standard,” e.g., 90 – 100 = A, 80 – 90 = B, etc., which you may be used to from high school or in some other courses. I believe that a curve is ultimately the fairest way to determine grades, since it does not set some arbitrary absolute standard, but judges students on their performance relative to their peers. With a curve, your grade is based on your percentile rank in the class, i.e., the percentage of students in the class who had a total semester weighted average below yours. If you are in the 60th percentile, for example, that means that 60% of students had a weighted average equal to or below yours, while 40% of students had a weighted average above yours. The curve applied will be as follows: Letter Grade Percentile Rank Range of Letter Grade A 80th %ile – 100th %ile A- 65th %ile – 80th %ile B+ 55th %ile – 65th %ile B 45th %ile – 55th %ile B- 35th %ile – 45th %ile C+ 25th %ile – 35th %ile C 20th %ile – 25th %ile C- 10th %ile – 20th %ile D 2nd %ile -- 10th %ile F 0th %ile -- 2nd %ile` For example, if your semester weighted average is 86% and that average puts you in the 57th percentile overall (this will vary from class to class), that would be a B+. Absolute Scale In the second calculation, grades will be determined by the standard scale you may be familiar with from high school. In this approach, your letter grade is based simply on your weighted average for the semester. Here is the scale: A 93.0% A- 90.0% B+ 87.0% B 83.0% B- 80.0% C+ 77.0% C 73.0% C- 70.0% D 65.0% E/F 0.0% To continue the example from above, if your weighted average for the semester is 86%, your grade based on the absolute scale, would be a B. Between the two grading systems, the curve would give you the higher letter grade (B+ for the curve vs. B for the absolute scale), so your semester grade in this case would be a B+. Readings You automatically get an e-copy of the book when you register for MyEconLab. You are NOT required to buy a separate copy of the book. The book is a reference only, and you are not required to read it. Most of the readings listed below are drawn from the textbook: Macroeconomics (8th ed.), by Glenn Hubbard and Anthony O’Brien. The majority of the reading in the text reinforces material you'll learn in class, but some of the topics we cover may not appear in the book. Conversely, some of the reading is purely for background, and will not be covered explicitly in class. You should consider the textbook to be most useful as a reference, or as an additional source of review for material we have presented in class. In short, you are not required to buy a hard copy of the book. The readings listed for each of the topics below are merely supplementary material, and are not assignments. You will not be responsible-on problem sets or exams-for material in the book that we have not covered in class. If you have purchased a used copy of an earlier edition of Hubbard and O’Brien, you should still find it useful. However, the page numbers given below refer to the latest, 8th, edition. The rest of the readings listed below will be drawn from recent newspaper and magazine articles. These will all be available on the course web site. You will be responsible on problem sets and exams for some of the newspaper and magazine articles. Academic Conduct It is your responsibility to know and understand the provisions of the CAS Academic Conduct Code (copies are available in CAS Room 105). Cases of suspected academic misconduct will be referred to the Dean's Office. In addition, anyone found cheating on an exam will receive a zero grade for the exam. COURSE OUTLINE Course Introduction and Syllabus Review Key Macro Variables: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Definition Measurement The expenditure method Components of GDP Potential GDP Per Capita GDP Real vs. Nominal GDP Hubbard & O’Brien: Sections 8.1, 8.3 Section 10.1.3 (On “Potential GDP”) Key Macro Variables: Inflation GDP Deflator The Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI vs. GDP Deflator Nominal vs. Real Interest Rates Costs of Inflation Hubbard & O’Brien: Sections 9.4 – 9.7 Key Macro Variables: Unemployment Measurement Kinds of Unemployment Causes of Unemployment Hubbard & O’Brien: Sections 9.1 – 9.3 Economic Growth Calculating Growth Rates The Rule of 70 Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 10.1 The Sources of Growth The Per Worker Production Function Technological Change Productivity in the U.S. Hubbard & O’Brien: Chapter 11 New Growth Theory Growth Across Countries Convergence “The poor and the rich,” The Economist, May 25, 1996 Economic Development: The Three Alternative Approaches Development Debates Jeffrey Sachs, “Institutions Matter, but Not for Everything,” Finance and Development, June, 2003 “Venezuela’s paradox: People are hungry, but farmers can’t feed them,” Washington Post, May 22, 2017 “Grinding the poor,” The Economist, Sept. 27, 2001 Kenneth Rogoff, “Unlocking Growth in Africa,” Finance and and Development, June, 2003. Tim Harford, The Undercover Economist, Chap. 8, “Why Poor Countries are Poor” Some Development Success Stories China India Tim Harford, The Undercover Economist, Chap. 10, “How China Grew Rich” “China’s Economic Woes Drag On With Factory Disruptions, Property Slump,” Wall Street Journal, Aug 31, 2022 The Economy in the Short Run: Aggregate Expenditure Components of Aggregate Expenditure: Consumption Hubbard & O’Brien: Sections 12.2.2 – 12.2.4 Components of Aggregate Expenditure: Investment What Do Economists Mean By Investment? Where Do Companies Get the Funds for Investment? Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 12.2.5 Components of Aggregate Expenditure: Net Exports Nominal Exchange Rates Real Exchange Rates Exchange Rates and Interest Rates Purchasing Power Parity Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 18.2 Determinants of Exports Determinants of Imports Determinants of Net Exports Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 12.2.7 Putting the Components Together: Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Aggregate Expenditure (AE) and Aggregate Demand (AD) Why Does the Aggregate Demand Curve Slope Down? Movements Along the AD Curve vs. Shifts in the AD Curve Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 13.1 Aggregate Supply Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) Short-Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS) Negative and Positive Supply Shocks Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 13.2 Putting AD, LRAS and SRAS Together: Macroeconomic Equilibrium and the Business Cycle Comparative Statics Inflationary Gaps and Recessionary Gaps The Short Run vs. The Long Run Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 10.3 Section 13.3 The Tradeoff Between Unemployment and Inflation: The Phillips Curve Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 17.1 Section 17.2.2 Monetary Policy Introduction to Money and Banking Bank Accounting The Deposit Multiplier Hubbard & O’Brien: Sections 14.1 – 14.3 The Federal Reserve System Open Market Operations Other Tools of the Fed Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 14.4 Money Supply and Money Demand Equilibrium in the Money Market Monetary Policy and Economic Activity Short-run Economic Fluctuations Revisited The Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy Hubbard & O’Brien: Sections 15.2 – 15.3 Sections 17.3 – 17.4 Monetary Policy in the Long Run The Quantity Theory of Money Hyperinflation Hubbard & O’Brien: Section 14.5 Fiscal Policy Introduction and Overview Facts and Figures Fiscal Policy and Demand Management in the Short Run The Government Spending and Tax Multipliers Fiscal Policy in the Long Run: Crowding Out Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy Limitations of Demand Management Policies Automatic Stabilizers Hubbard & O’Brien: Chapter 16