Antoine Du Sault FPHEC candidate
August 14th 2023
Agenda
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
2
Agenda
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
3
The market is full of uncertainty, seeks instability in
near future
2023-08-31
I - Thesis
The market still shows signs of a
possible recession
4
The market is full of uncertainty, seeks instability in
near future
We must seek more resilient positions
that can provide stable growth
The world demand for oil and gas is more
2023-08-31
The market still shows signs of a
possible recession
I - Thesis
5
The market is full of uncertainty, seeks instability in
near future
The market still shows signs of a
possible recession
We must seek more resilient positions
that can provide stable growth
The world demand for oil and gas is more
PrairieSky has shown very poor results
during the COVID-19 pandemic
2023-08-31
I - Thesis
6
A golden opportunity to avoid crying in your bed at night
The market still shows signs of a
possible recession
Market uncertainty
We must seek more resilient positions
that can provide stable growth
Defensive and low risk approach
PrairieSky has shown very poor results
during the COVID-19 pandemic
Not so resilient
We must not invest in PrairieSky
Sell
2023-08-31
I - Thesis
7
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
8
2023-08-31
II - Market
9
Looking for a soft landing
2023-08-31
II - Market
10
Surprising resilience… yet
Key takeaways
• The economy is slowing down
• We need a player that can withstand high
economic pressure
2023-08-31
II - Market
11
Agenda
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
12
Looking for resilience
Key takeaways
• The oil industry shows poor resilience during
uncertain economic times
• We need a player that has a low risk business
model
2023-08-31
III - Industry
13
Agenda
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
14
Well positioned
Key takeaways
• Lighter risk business model
• Good ESG programs
• Big player, very well positioned in a niche
market
2023-08-31
IV - Company
15
Agenda
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
16
Me trying to do a DCF
Key takeaways
• Substantial free cash flow
• Low WACC
• Room for manœuvre and M&A
2023-08-31
V - Valuation
17
Is there a comp. table missing?
2023-08-31
V - Valuation
18
Agenda
2023-08-31
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII
Conclusion
A
Appendix
19
Not so risk free
EBITA
EBIT
2023-08-31
VI - Financials
20
Not so risk free
Net Income
Earnings per Share
2023-08-31
VI - Financials
21
Agenda
I
Thesis
II
Market
III
Industry
IV
Company
V
Valuation
VI
Financials
VII Conclusion
A
2023-08-31
Appendix
22
2023-08-31
VII - Conclusion
23