Lecture 5 - Population
Growth and Economic
Development
ECF 600 – UNILUS – Stage 2
Overview
 Historical Growth of World Population
 Structure of World Population
 Demographic Transition
 Causes of High Fertility
 Consequences of High Fertility
 Theoretical Perspectives
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Some Policy Approaches
 Lessons from China and India
 Changing role of women in
development
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How Big is Big-Population Debate
China and New Zealand
China Population 1.3 billion
 20 percent of world population
 Chinese Leader Mao Zedong
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How Big is Big-Population Debate China
and New Zealand
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China Population 1.3 billion
20 percent of world
population
In 1949 China pop was 540
mil to 940 mil in 1976
Chinese Leader Mao
Zedong
In 1965 he encouraged
Chinese to have more
children as this increases
power of a country.
This prevented the rise and
introduction of family
planning.
The Increase of Population In China
led to problems
 Detrimental
Living Conditions
 Pollution
 Degradation
resources
of land and
Post Mao Zedong Era
After Maos death in 1976, his
successors saw that population
growth consumed more than half of
the yearly increase of China’s GDP.
 It was then that China introduced the
two child per family policy
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Introduction of One Child Policy
 The
one-child policy was a program in
China that was implemented nationwide by
the Chinese government in 1980 in order to
limit most Chinese families to one child
each.
 The policy was enacted to address the
growth rate of the country’s population,
which the government viewed as being too
rapid.
Architect of Modern China
Deng Xiaoping was a Chinese politician who
was the paramount leader of the People's
Republic of China from 1978 until his
retirement in 1992.
After Chairman Mao Zedong's death in 1976,
Deng gradually rose to power and led China
through a series of far-reaching marketeconomy reforms, which earned him the
reputation as the "Architect of Modern China.
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The central issues of our time is how the
world addresses the problem of ever
expanding numbers.
Economic development may be far from the
best contraceptive but social development,
especially women’s education and
employment can be very effective indeed.
Amartya Sen –Nobel Prize Lauraete
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At the current levels of economic growth- do
Developing countries have the capacity to improve
the levels of living for their people
How will DCs cope with vast increases in labour
forces ?
What are the implications for population growth on
poverty
Will DCs have the capacity to extend health and
education coverage to everyone
Is there a relationship between poverty and family
size
Is pursuance of affluence by the rich more
detrimental in raising the living standards for the
poor.
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Rate of Population
Increase
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The growth rate of a
population is
calculated as the
natural increase after
adjusting for
immigration and
emigration
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Natural Increase
This is the difference
between the birth rate
and the death rate
Crude birth Rate
The number of Children
born alive each year per
1,000 population
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Death Rate
The number of deaths
each year per 1000
population
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Total Fertility Rate
The number of children
that would be born to a
woman if she were to
live to the end of her
child bearing years and
bear child in
accordance with
prevailing age specific
fertility rates.
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Life Expectancy at birth
The number of years a
newborn child would
live if subject to the
mortality risks
prevailing for the
population at the time
of the child’s birth
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Population Pyramid
A graphic depiction of
the age structure of the
population with age
cohorts plotted on the
vertical axis and either
population shares or
numbers of males and
females in each cohort
on the horizontal axis.
Development vs population growth
 Population growth and impact on labour
markets
 Implication of pop growth on poverty
 Ability to improve access to Health &
Education
 Relationship between Poverty and Family Size
 Bridging the gap between the rich and poor
 of poverty.
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Past and Current population growth are very
different every second, on average 4 or 5 five
children are born, somewhere on the earth ,
in that same second, two other people die
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World Population approaching 7
billion
12,000 years ago Pop was 5 million
Most population growth in
developing countries
World Pop growth rate stands at
historically high rate of 1.1 per year
Projections for 2050 are that world
population may reach 2050
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18,217,013 est.)
estimates for this country explicitly take into account the effects of
excess mortality due to AIDS; this can result in lower life
expectancy, higher infant mortality, higher death rates, lower
population growth rates, and changes in the distribution of
population by age and sex than would otherwise be expected
This is the population pyramid for Zambia. A population pyramid
illustrates the age and sex structure of a country's population and
may provide insights about political and social stability, as well as
economic development.
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Current Population -13,046,508
Annual pop growth rate is 2.8 percent
Population density presently stands at 17.3
persons per square kilometer
Lusaka Province has highest density at 100.4
from 63.5 in 2000
Copperbelt Pop density is 62.5 from 50.5
persons per square km
Western Province has lowest increase from
6.1 persons in 2000 to 7.0 persons per sq
km.
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Lusaka Province has highest pop at
2,198,996. Lusaka Province has an average
growth rate of 4.7 percent
Copperbelt is second highest at 1,958,623.
The annual growth rate is 2.2 percent
Western province has a pop of 881,524 with
an annual growth rate of 1.4 percent
N/Western has lowest population at 706,462.
The annual growth rate is 1.9 percent
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Population growth rates by Province
Copperbelt increased from 0.8 to 2.2
Eastern from 2.6 to 2.7
Lusaka from from 3.4 to 4.7
Northern from 3.1 to 3.4
Southern from 2.3 to 2.9
Central, Luapula, N/Western, Western
registered a decline in pop growth rates over
the period 2000-2010
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Definition:
Demographic transition refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to
low birth and death rates as a country
develops from a pre-industrial to an
industrialized economic system. This is
typically demonstrated through a
demographic transition model. ...
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The three stages of modern Population History
Stage 1 : High Birth Rates and High death rates
Stage 2 – Marks beginning of Demographic
Transition : improvements in public health,
healthier diets led to reduction in mortality, raised
life expectancy and decline in death rates was not
accompanied by decline in fertility. This led to
sharp increases inn population
Stage 3 – This was when modernization and
development caused the beginning of a decline in
fertility, falling birth rates and this converged with
lower death rates leaving little or no population
growth.
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Death rates and
birth rates are
high and are
roughly in
balance.
Death rates drop
rapidly due to
improvements in
food supply and
sanitation, which
increases life
spans and
reduces diseases.
Without a
corresponding
fall in birth rates,
the countries in
this stage
experience a
large increase in
population.
Birth rates fall due
to access to
contraception,
increases in
wages,
urbanization, an
increase in the
status and
education of
women, and other
social changes.
Population growth
begins to level off.
Birth rates and
death rates are
both low. Birth
rates may drop
below
replacement level,
leading to a
shrinking
population. Death
rates may remain
consistently low
or increase
slightly due to
increases in
lifestyle diseases
due to low
exercise levels
and high obesity.
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Economic Theory of fertility
assumes that the household
demand for children is
determined by family preferences
for a certain number of surviving
children
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The effect of social and economic
progress in lowering fertility in
developing countries will be the
greatest when the majority of the
population and especially the very
poor share in its benefits
I. Population Growth is not the Problem,
instead the following four (4) issues are what
needs to be addressed:
(a) Underdevelopment
(b) World Resource Depletion and
Environmental Destruction
(c) Population Distribution
(d) Subordination of Women
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Its a deliberately Contrived False Issue
Linked to neo-colonial dependence theory of
underdevelopment
That population control efforts by rich
nations are deemed racist to reduce the
relative of the poor who may pose a threat to
the welfare of the rich
Its a desirable Phenomenon
(a) Population growth stimulates economic
development
(b) That many rural regions in developing
economies are under-populated and much
of the arable land could yield large increase
in agricultural output if only more people
were available to cultivate it.
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Population poverty cycles theory is the main
argument advanced by economists who hold
that too rapid population growth yields
negative economic consequences and thus
should be a real concern for developing
countries
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The basic Model used is a simplification of
the standard Solow Type Neoclassical growth
equation
Y = f ( K, L, R, T)
Standard Production function that output is a
function of capital, labor, resources and
technology)
Potential negative Consequences can be
divided into seven (7) categories and its
impact on the following:- :
1. Economic Growth
2. Poverty and Inequality]
3. Education
4. Health
5. Food
6. Environment
7. International
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Population Growth is not the primary cause of
low levels of living
The problem of population is not simply one
of numbers but involves the quality of life
and material well being
Rapid Population growth does serve to
intensify problem of underdevelopment and
makes prospects for development that much
more remote.
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What Developing Countries Can do
Advocate for smaller families
Enhance family planning programs
Remove incentives for having
children
Legislate for smaller families
through coercion
Raise social status of women and
create conditions for delayed
marriage and lower fertility rates
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Population Growth and Economic
Development , , Lacker, C P B
UNFPA, (1992) Statement on Population
Growth and Economic Development
Bloom D E, (1987) Economic development
and the timing and components of population
growth
Coast E (2002) Population Trends in
developing countries
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Bloom D and Freeman (1997) Demographic
Transition and Economic miracles in emerging Asia
World Demographic and Ageing Forum –
(wdaforum.org or www.wdaassociation.org
Population Issues (1999) – Population and
Sustainable Development
Trang P, Hieu T, (2011) Effects of Population
Growth on Economic Growth in Asian developing
Countries
UNFPA, (2002) Macroeconomics, Poverty,
Population and Development