Are Selling, General, and Administrative Costs “Sticky”? Mark C. Anderson Rajiv D. Banker* Surya Janakiraman School of Management The University of Texas at Dallas October 24, 2000 *Corresponding author. Rajiv D. Banker School of Management, JO 43 The University of Texas at Dallas Richardson, TX 75083-0688 Tel: (972) 883-4185; fax: (972) 883-6811 E-mail address: rbanker@utdallas.edu Helpful comments from seminar participants at the University of Arizona, the University of Southern California, the University of Texas at Austin, the University of Texas at Dallas, and the annual conferences of the European Accounting Association in Munich (2000) and the American Accounting Association in Philadelphia (2000) are gratefully acknowledged. Are Selling, General, and Administrative Costs “Sticky”? Abstract A fundamental assumption in cost accounting is that the magnitude of a change in costs is the same for an equivalent magnitude of either an increase or a decrease in activity volume. In this study, we investigate whether costs are “sticky” – increase more with an activity increase than they decrease with an equivalent activity decrease. We find, for 7,629 firms over 20 years, that SG&A costs increase on average at a rate of 0.55% per 1% increase in sales but decrease only 0.35% per 1% decrease in sales. We describe a model of cost behavior in which sticky costs may occur because managers deliberately adjust the resources committed to an activity. 1. Introduction Understanding cost behavior is essential to cost and management accounting.1 In the classical model of cost behavior that is pervasive in the accounting literature, costs are described as fixed or variable with respect to changes in activity volume. In this traditional model, variable costs change proportionately with changes in the activity driver (Noreen [1991]). This implies that a change in costs depends only on the extent of a change in the level of activity, but is not influenced by the direction of the change. However, folklore has it that costs rise more with increases in activity than they fall with decreases in activity (Cooper and Kaplan [1998, p. 247], Noreen and Soderstrom [1997]). We label this type of cost behavior “sticky” cost behavior. Specifically, costs are “sticky” if the increase in costs associated with an increase in the activity driver is greater than the decrease in costs associated with an equivalent decrease in the driver. Archival research has provided very little evidence about the behavior of activity costs in relation to changes in activity levels.2 One reason for this paucity of research may be the lack of availability of broad-based data that include the costs and relevant drivers. An exception to this data insufficiency is the availability of data on selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs and sales revenue. Information about SG&A costs and sales revenue is available for a broad set of firms in the Compustat database. The behavior of SG&A costs can be studied in relation to revenue activity because many of the components 1 See, for example, chapter 4 of Atkinson, Banker, Kaplan and Young [1997], chapter 5 of Garrison and Noreen [1997], chapter 7 of Hilton [1997], chapter 10 of Horngren, Foster and Datar [1997], chapter 2 of Horngren, Sundem, and Stratton [1996], chapter 1 of Kaplan and Atkinson [1998]), and chapter 2 of Zimmerman [1997]. 2 To the best of our knowledge, the only exceptions in the accounting literature are the study of airline costs by Banker and Johnston [1993] and the recent studies of hospital costs by Noreen and Soderstrom [1994, 1997] and Balakrishnan, Petersen and Soderstrom [1999]. 1 of SG&A are driven by sales revenue (Cooper and Kaplan [1998, p. 341]). In its annual SG&A survey (prepared jointly with Arthur Andersen LLP), CFO Magazine treats sales revenue as the primary driver of SG&A costs by performing extensive analyses of SG&A costs in relation to sales revenue (Mintz [1999]). Studying the behavior of SG&A costs is important because SG&A costs make up about 26.4% of sales revenue for our broad-based sample. In our analysis, we refer to activity costs that adjust mechanistically to changes in activity levels as “engineered” costs and activity costs that change only as a result of adjustments initiated by managers as “committed” costs.3 Since the actual activity level cannot exceed the capacity accommodated by the resources committed to an activity, an increase in demand puts immediate and direct pressure on managers to increase committed costs. But a decrease in the demand for an activity does not put similar pressure on managers to decrease committed costs. Sticky costs occur if committed resources are not reduced to the minimum level necessary to support a reduced activity demand. While the premise of sticky cost behavior is intuitively striking, no empirical study supports it, and received wisdom in accounting does not reflect it. We test for sticky cost behavior by estimating an empirical model that relates changes in SG&A costs to contemporaneous changes in net sales revenue for a 20 year panel of data for 7,629 firms. The model includes an interaction dummy variable that distinguishes between revenue decreasing and revenue increasing periods. We document that the percentage increase in SG&A costs for an increase in sales revenue is larger than the percentage decrease in SG&A costs for an equivalent decrease in sales revenue. For 3 Engineered costs are clearly variable costs whereas committed costs may be fixed or variable depending on managers’ flexibility in adjusting the committed resources provided. 2 our full sample (all firms in the Compustat database for the twenty-year period from 1979 to 1998), SG&A costs increase at a rate of 0.55% per 1% increase in revenue but fall at a rate of only 0.35% per 1% decrease in revenue. This basic result is robust to a number of alternative specifications. We include the value of fixed assets and the number of employees as additional drivers of SG&A costs and find sticky cost behavior with respect to both of these drivers. We acknowledge that there may be simultaneous relations between revenue and some types of SG&A costs and estimate a system of equations that includes both revenue and SG&A costs as endogenous variables. We find that the main results are not diminished. Since there may be delays in adjusting costs for changes in activity, we estimate a specification of the model that includes lagged revenue change and lagged interaction variables for revenue decreasing periods. Interestingly, the results of this estimation indicate that stickiness partially reverses over time. If the committed resources are greater than the minimum level necessary to support activity demand, the firm bears the cost of slack resources. Managers may permit slack resource costs in order to avoid economic consequences of reducing and restoring committed resources, such as severance pay to discharged employees and the costs of hiring and training employees if demand reverts to higher levels. Managers may also permit slack resource costs to avoid personal consequences of retrenchment, such as loss of status or the anguish of dismissing familiar employees. Expected slack resource costs increase with the permanence of a decline in activity demand. Managers evaluating the economic consequences would reduce committed resources more readily when the probability that a decline in activity demand is transitory 3 is lower (probability that the decline is permanent is higher). A decline in activity demand is less likely to be transitory in periods of economic contraction than in periods of economic growth. The probability that a decline is transitory is also lower when the decline occurs in a second consecutive period or when the decline is sustained over a longer aggregation of periods. Empirical tests based on these observations provide evidence consistent with sticky cost behavior resulting from deliberate decision-making by managers who weigh the economic consequences of their actions. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In section 2, the sticky cost hypothesis and basic empirical model are developed and specified in terms of SG&A costs and sales revenue. In section 3, the data and sample are described, the basic model is estimated, and a number of variations of the basic model are described and estimated. In section 4, a set of empirical hypotheses consistent with managers making deliberate economic decisions that result in sticky cost behavior is developed and tested. In section 5, implications of our findings for cost and other accounting research are discussed. 2. Sticky Cost Behavior The costs associated with a particular activity driver may be described as either engineered or committed with respect to the activity driver (Cooper and Kaplan [1992], Banker and Hughes [1994], and Kaplan [1994]).4 Three key assumptions characterize the relationship between engineered costs and an activity driver. First, engineered costs equal price times the engineered resources provided. Second, the engineered resources provided 4 Previous descriptions have used the term flexible or metered costs instead of engineered costs. The term engineered costs appropriately connotes a tightly coupled direct relationship between the costs and the activity driver. 4 equal the engineered resources demanded. Third, the engineered resources demanded are linearly related to the activity driver. Taken together, these three assumptions imply that engineered costs vary proportionately with changes in the activity driver. By their nature, engineered costs cannot exhibit sticky behavior, which is characterized by asymmetric responses to activity driver increases and decreases. The key distinction between engineered costs and committed costs concerns the second assumption. Committed resources provided are not necessarily equal to committed resources demanded. While engineered resources adjust fully in response to activity demand, managers must determine the level of committed resources provided. Since managers select the level of committed resources provided, there need not be a proportional relation between the committed resources provided and the level of activity (although there may exist a proportional relation between the committed resources demanded and the level of activity). If the committed resources demanded exceed the committed resources provided, the available activity resources will be strained (Banker and Hughes [1994]). This strain puts immediate and direct pressure on managers to increase the committed resources. If, on the other hand, the committed resources demanded are less than the committed resources provided, there will be slack. Slack does not put the same type of pressure on managers to reduce committed resources as strain does to increase committed resources.5 5 “For committed resources to become variable in the downward direction – after the demand for the supplied resources has decreased and created unused capacity – the organization must manage the unused capacity of these resources out of the system… Only at that time will the costs of resources supplied start to decrease. Thus, what makes a resource cost “variable” in a downward direction is not inherent in the nature of the resource; it is a function of management decisions” (Cooper and Kaplan [1998, p. 247]). 5 2.1 Stickiness of SG&A Costs In this study, we apply these concepts to SG&A costs and revenue activity. An example of an engineered cost in this context is a sales commission that is equal to a percentage of the selling price. Sales determine both the amount of the resource demanded (earned sales commissions) and the amount actually provided. An example of a committed cost is salaries paid to sales support staff. Mangers determine the amount of committed sales support resource provided to support the revenue activity. If revenue activity rises to the point where demand for the sales support resource is greater than the committed resource, the resource will be strained. Managers will feel pressure to increase the committed resource to meet customer needs. In the short term, managers may stretch existing resources by requiring employees to work overtime. In the longer run, managers may reduce the strain by adding more sales support personnel. If, on the other hand, revenue activity falls to the point where the demand for sales support is less than the committed resource, some sales support personnel will be expendable. But, the slack will not be removed unless managers recognize that slack exists and take steps to reduce or redeploy the staff not required to support current sales. Thus, an increase in activity can only take place if committed resources are strained or additional resources are provided, but a decrease in activity can occur without a corresponding adjustment to the committed resources. Our objective is to test for sticky cost behavior by comparing the variation of SG&A costs with sales revenue in periods when revenue increases with the variation of SG&A costs with sales revenue in periods when revenue decreases. Our sticky cost hypothesis is formally stated as follows. 6 Hypothesis 1: The proportionate increase in SG&A costs for an increase in sales revenue is greater than the proportionate decrease in SG&A costs for an equivalent decrease in sales revenue. 2.2 Empirical Model of SG&A Cost Behavior An empirical model that enables measurement of the SG&A response to contemporaneous changes in sales revenue and discriminates between periods when revenue increases and revenue decreases is presented below. The interaction variable, Decrease_Dummy, takes the value of one when sales revenue decreases between periods t1 and t and zero otherwise. Model (I): Re venuei,t Re venuei,t SG & A i,t log + ε i ,t + β 2 * Decrease_ Dummyi ,t * log = β0 + β1 log Revenuei,t -1 Revenuei,t -1 SG & A i,t -1 This model provides the basis for our test of stickiness of SG&A costs.6 Since the estimation is cross-sectional with a wide variety of industries and large variation in sizes of firms, the ratio form and log specification improves the comparability of the variables across firms and alleviates potential heteroskedasticity. Empirically, the Davidson and MacKinnon [1981] test rejects the linear form in favor of this loglinear model.7 Specification of the equation in this manner also accommodates economic interpretation of the estimated coefficients. Since the value of Decrease_Dummy is zero when revenue increases, the coefficient β1 measures the percentage increase in SG&A costs with a one 6 If the traditional fixed and variable cost model is valid, upward and downward changes in costs will be equal and consequently β 2 = 0. Further, if fixed costs are present, then β 1 < 1, signifying economies of scale. 7 percent increase in sales revenue. Since the value of Decrease_Dummy is one when revenue decreases, the sum of the coefficients, β1 + β2 measures the percentage increase in SG&A costs with a one percent decrease in sales revenue. If SG&A costs are sticky, then the variation of SG&A costs with revenue increases should be greater than the variation for revenue decreases. Thus, the empirical hypothesis for stickiness, conditional on β1 > 0, is β2 < 0.8 3. Empirical Tests of the Sticky Cost Hypothesis The primary variables used in our analysis are SG&A costs (annual Compustat #189) and net sales revenue (annual Compustat #12). Since these numbers are obtained from the financial statements, they are accrual-based measurements of SG&A costs and revenues. The data set includes annual data for industrial firms covering the twenty years from 1979 to 1998. The data are initially screened for missing observations of either SG&A costs or sales revenue in the current or preceding year.9 The total number of observations is 64,663 for 7,629 firms, an average of about 8.5 observations per firm. Panel A of table 1 provides descriptive information about annual revenues and SG&A costs for the complete twenty year sample. The mean value of SG&A costs as a percentage of sales revenue is 26.41% (standard deviation = 17.79%, median = 22.62%), indicating the importance of SG&A costs. Panel B of table 1 provides information about 7 Results are qualitatively similar for all of the models when they are estimated with a linear specification. 8 Noreen and Soderstrom [1997] specify a similar model and conduct a test for asymmetric cost behavior with respect to activity increases and decreases. Using data for hospital overhead costs, their results provided weak evidence of asymmetric behavior (negative signs on their interaction term for activity decreases for 12 out of 16 accounts, but overall not significantly different from zero). 9 Observations where SG&A costs exceeded sales revenue were also deleted. 8 the frequency of firm-periods when revenue fell (relative to the previous period) and firmperiods when SG&A costs fell. Revenue fell in 27.01% of the annual firm-periods in the sample and SG&A costs fell in 24.98% of the firm-periods. The mean value of revenue decreases was 17.45% (standard deviation = 18.64%, median value = 10.99%) and the mean value of decreases in SG&A costs was 15.67% (standard deviation = 16.40%, median value = 10.07%). 3.1 Basic Results The model was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). A simple screening rule was used to eliminate extreme observations from the estimation. Observations with values of any variable in the top or bottom 0.5% of its distribution were trimmed from the sample (Chen and Dixon [1972]), resulting in a reduction of 705 observations to 63,958 observations. The OLS significance levels of the coefficients were compared with significance levels obtained using White’s [1980] heteroskedasticity-corrected statistics and were found to be nearly identical. The Durbin-Watson [1951] test statistic revealed significant (at the 5% level) positive autocorrelation for less than 3% of the firms, indicating that it is not necessary to correct for serial correlation in the data. The Belsley, Kuh, and Welsch (1980) diagnostic was used to test for multicollinearity. Mulicollinerity is indicated when the condition index exceeds ten. In no case did the condition index exceed five. Table 2 presents the results of estimating model (I) for the pooled sample. The estimated value of β̂1 of 0.5459 (t-statistic = 164.11) indicates that SG&A costs increase 0.55% per 1% increase in sales revenues. The estimated value of β̂ 2 = -0.1914 (t-statistic 9 = -26.14) provides strong support for the sticky cost hypothesis. The combined value of β̂1 + β̂ 2 = 0.3545 indicates that SG&A costs decrease only 0.35% per 1% decrease in sales revenue. The fact that β̂1 and β̂1 + β̂ 2 are both significantly less than one (p-values = 0.001) indicates that SG&A costs are not proportional to changes in revenue, even though this cost driver is apparently very strong.10 For comparative purposes, we also estimated a model without the interaction variable for revenue decreasing periods. The coefficient on β̂1 when this limited model is estimated is 0.4909, representing the variation of SG&A costs with revenue changes that would be measured if no allowance were made for asymmetry in the change in costs with revenue increases and revenue decreases. Since we are using a large panel of data from different industries and over different time periods, we also estimate a fixed effects model (Greene [1997, pp. 621-623]). In the “fixed effects estimation” column of table 2, we provide the results from estimating the model with separate dummy variables for 30 industry groups (as defined in Baber, Janakiraman and Kang [1996]) and 19 years.11 The estimation results are very similar to those reported for the pooled estimation with β̂1 = 0.5382 (t-statistic = 158.73), β̂ 2 = 0.1906 (t-statistic = -25.51), and β̂1 + β̂ 2 = 0.3476. We performed a variety of robustness tests of the Model (I) estimations (not reported). We estimated the model separately by industry group and by year. The zstatistic for the estimated coefficient of the stickiness variable, β̂ 2 , was -20.31 for an 10 Noreen and Soderstrom [1994] find that overhead costs at hospitals in Washington State were not proportional to activity. In a related study, Noreen and Soderstrom [1997] find that the average variation of overhead was about 20% of the variation in the activity driver. They suggest that the low percentage may reflect maintenance of specific capacities by hospitals. 10 aggregation of 30 industry groups and -15.41 for an aggregation of 19 annual time periods, providing strong support for the sticky cost hypothesis across industries and over time. To provide assurance that the results were not systematically affected by inflation, we converted all SG&A and revenue amounts to equivalent 1984 dollars and reestimated model (I) with the inflation-adjusted amounts. The results, β̂1 = 0.5466 (t-statistic = 160.92) and β̂ 2 = -0.1721 (t-statistic = -24.18), were very similar to those reported above. One of the components of SG&A expense is foreign currency translation adjustments (annual Compustat #150). Since these adjustments introduce noise into the measure of SG&A, we removed them from the SG&A data and estimated model (I) again. Results of this estimation, β̂1 = 0.5983 (t-statistic = 85.81) and β̂ 2 = -0.2077 (t-statistic = -13.84), were also very similar to those reported for the initial estimation. 3.2 Multiple Cost Drivers There are other drivers of SG&A costs in addition to sales revenue activity. The G&A components of SG&A costs are likely to vary also with the amount of assets governed by the firm and with the number of employees whose efforts are coordinated by the firm. Table 3 presents results of estimating model (I) with additional terms for the value of total assets (annual Compustat #6) and the number of employees (Compustat #29). The estimation results confirm that both of these variables are drivers of SG&A costs, with significantly positive coefficients β̂ 3 of 0.1504 (t-statistic = 35.05) for total assets and β̂ 5 of 0.2026 (t-statistic = 38.11) for the number of employees. Sticky cost behavior with 11 We also estimate a fixed effects model that includes dummy variables for individual firms and years for a sample of firms that have at least 15 valid observations and at least one revenue decline. The results are similar to those presented. 11 respect to these two additional drivers is indicated by the significantly negative coefficients β̂ 4 of -0.0504 (t-statistic = -5.05) and β̂ 6 of -0.0587 (t-statistic = -6.21). Sales revenue remains a significant driver of SG&A costs in this model ( β̂1 = 0.3769, t-statistic = 86.41) with significant sticky behavior ( β̂ 2 = -0.1050, t-statistic = -11.67). 3.3 Lagged Adjustments Unlike engineered resources, committed resources are not tied directly to the activity driver. Managers must intervene to adjust the level of committed resources, implying that there may be a delay between the change in the activity driver and the consequent decision to change the committed resource. There may also be a delay between the decision and the realization of the change because it takes time to effect changes to committed resources. For example, it takes time to search for and hire new employees and it may take time to dismiss employees. The forces that engender stickiness may cause adjustments to committed costs for decreases in the activity driver to be delayed more than adjustments to committed costs for increases in the activity driver. Noreen and Soderstrom [1997] suggested that the pressures to increase committed resources might be resisted for some time, but that eventually the strain must be addressed. Salaried employees, for example, may be pushed to handle greater workloads and work overtime for some period of time, but they will weary of the extra demands. While slack, on the other hand, does not create immediate strain on committed resources, it will be reflected in periodic measures of accounting performance. The more immediate and continuous pressure associated with strain may cause managers to 12 address strain more quickly than they address slack. We extend model (I) by including terms for one-period lagged changes to sales revenue. Model (II): Re venuei, t SG & A i, t Re venuei, t log + + β 2 Decrease _ Dummyi ,t * log = β 0 + β1 log Revenuei, t -1 SG & A i, t -1 Revenuei, t -1 Re venuei, t -1 Re venuei, t -1 β 3 log + β 4 Decrease _ Dummyi ,t −1 * log + ε i ,t Revenuei, t - 2 Revenuei, t - 2 Results of estimating this empirical specification are presented in table 4. The significantly positive coefficient β̂1 of 0.5328 (t-statistic = 130.43) is very similar to its counterpart in the model (I) estimation (table 2), as is the significantly negative coefficient β̂ 2 of –0.1876 (t-statistic = -23.47), indicating contemporaneous stickiness. The significantly positive coefficient β̂ 3 of 0.1038 (t-statistic = 29.79) indicates a lagged adjustment to SG&A for changes in sales revenue. More interesting, the coefficient β̂ 4 is also a significantly positive 0.1042 (t-statistic = 13.23), indicating a partial reversal of stickiness in the period subsequent to a revenue decline ( β̂ 4 < βˆ 2 , t-statistic = 9.09). These results suggest that stickiness of SG&A costs has a temporal quality, that managers make upward adjustments to SG&A resources for increases in revenue activity more quickly than they make downward adjustments for decreases in revenue activity. 3.4 Simultaneous Relations SG&A costs, as tabulated in the Compustat data, comprise a number of elements that correspond to a variety of expenditures. These elements include, among other things, the costs of accounting, advertising, bad debts, foreign currency adjustments, labor and 13 related items not included in cost of goods sold, and marketing. From a cost perspective, sales revenue activity is a primary driver of SG&A costs. Some SG&A costs, such as sales commission costs, are engineered costs that move mechanistically with sales revenue. Other SG&A costs, such as customer service costs, are committed costs that are determined by managers who assess the anticipated demand for the committed resources. A third category of costs, “discretionary” costs, are not engineered or committed with respect to revenue activity.12 This category includes items such as advertising costs that may, in fact, influence the amount of revenue activity. To the extent that there are two-way economic relations between SG&A costs and sales revenue, coefficients in the model (I) or model (II) estimations may be biased. To address this issue, we estimate a simultaneous system of equations, described below as model (III), that includes changes in SG&A costs and revenues as endogenous variables. Model (III): Revenuei, t Re venuei, t SGAi, t EQUATION 1 : log + + α 2 Decrease _ Dummyi,t * log = α 0 + α1 log Revenuei, t −1 Re venuei, t −1 SGAi, t -1 Revenuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 α3 log + + α 4 Decrease_Dummyi,t −1 * log Revenuei, t − 2 Revenuei, t − 2 Employeesi, t Assetsi, t α5 log + ϑi, t + α6 log Employeesi, t −1 Assetsi, t −1 SGAi,t SGAi,t −1 Revenuei,t EQUATION 2 : log = γ 0 + γ 1 log + γ 2 log + ζ i,t +1 Revenuei,t −1 SGAi,t −1 SGAi,t −2 The first equation in the system of equations is the model (II) specification extended to include the additional drivers, value of total assets and number of employees, which also 12 The costs of engineered and committed resources are incurred in order to fill the current period demand. Discretionary costs are not needed to fill existing demand either in the current period or in future periods, but rather are incurred to generate current or future demand. 14 serve as instruments for the endogenous variables in the simultaneous estimation. The second equation relates changes in revenue to changes in SG&A costs in the current and previous years. The first equation is over-identified and the second equation is exactly identified, implying that there are no identification problems in estimating the system of equations (Judge et al. [1985, pp. 576-577]). Results of estimating the system of equations using two-stage least squares are presented in table 5. The fact that the coefficients on the endogenous variables, α̂1 = 0.4671 (t-statistic = 11.49) and γ̂ 1 = 1.5285 (t-statistic = 131.53), are significantly positive in the equations that they appear as independent variables is consistent with two-way relations between SG&A costs and revenues. Nevertheless, the coefficient α̂ 2 = -0.2207 (t-statistic = -4.93) is significantly negative as predicted by the sticky cost hypothesis. Also, the coefficients on the lagged revenue terms, α̂ 3 = 0.0602 (t-statistic = 6.09) and α̂ 4 = 0.0839 (t-statistic = 3.54) are both significantly positive, consistent with a delayed response to revenue changes and partial reversal of stickiness over time. Table 6 presents results of estimating an alternative model where SG&A costs are divided into advertising and non-advertising costs. This model is estimated for the subset of firms that separately report advertising costs (annual Computstat item #45). For these firms, advertising costs average about 12% of SG&A costs and about 4% of sales revenue. In the first equation of the model, non-advertising SG&A costs are related to current and lagged changes in revenue and, in the second equation, the current change in revenue is related to current and lagged advertising costs. Advertising, in this model, is regarded as a discretionary revenue-driving cost. This is a simultaneous system of equations with a special triangular structure. It is a recursive system of equations but the error terms of the 15 two equations are likely to be correlated. Therefore, consistent and efficient estimators are obtained by estimating the equations as seemingly unrelated regressions (Greene [1997, p. 737], Lahiri and Schmidt [1978], Zellner [1962]). The coefficients on the revenue change and lagged revenue change terms in equation 1, α̂1 = 0.6298 (t-statistic = 68.77) and α̂ 3 = 0.1158 (t-statistic = 15.55), are significantly positive, consistent with non-advertising SG&A costs being influenced by both current and lagged revenues. The coefficient on the contemporaneous sticky cost term, α̂ 2 = -0.1232 (t-statistic = -6.56), is significantly negative, and the coefficient on the lagged term, α̂ 4 = 0.1142 (t-statistic = 6.11), is significantly positive, consistent with stickiness and partial reversal of stickiness over time. The significantly positive coefficients on the contemporaneous and lagged advertising change terms in equation 2, γ̂ 1 = 0.2214 (t-statistic = 51.69) and γ̂ 2 = 0.1007 (t-statistic = 24.05) are consistent with advertising positively influencing revenues for multiple periods. 4. Sticky Costs and Adjustment Decisions by Managers Hypothesis 1 was motivated by the folklore that activity costs rise more with an increase in activity than they fall with an equivalent decrease in activity (Cooper and Kaplan [1998, p. 247], Noreen and Soderstrom, [1997]). The asymmetry we document in favor of hypothesis 1 substantiates the claim that managers do not reduce committed resources to the minimal level necessary to meet activity demand. While the folklore provides the insight that slack resources must be managed away, it does not provide a justification for the failure by managers to do so. In this section, we posit a model of cost 16 behavior in which managers make deliberate adjustments to the level of committed resources after weighing the possible consequences of their actions. If a manager were motivated to increase profits and there were no cause for resistance to reducing the level of committed resources provided, sticky cost behavior would not be observed. Resistance to reducing committed resources may be due to consideration of the economic consequences to the firm, such as requirements to provide severance pay to discharged employees or penalties for terminating lease agreements. When there is a positive probability that activity demand will increase in the future, the manager may consider the costs associated with restoring the committed resources, such as the costs of searching for and training employees or locating and contracting for facilities. The manager may also consider indirect economic consequences of retrenchment, such as those caused by loss in employee morale, which would be manifest in subsequent periods. Alternatively, resistance may be due to personal concerns of a manager who is reluctant to dismiss familiar employees or feels personally threatened by reductions in committed resources, a concern echoed by a manager interviewed in the Schrader-Bellows case: “They have babies to feed and mortgages to pay too. If the logical conclusion of an analysis would entail liquidation of a person’s position, it is unrealistic to expect much support from him in implementing the recommendations” (Cooper [1985]). In the face of stochastic future demand, managers who weigh the economic consequences of their decisions compare the anticipated costs of slack resources with the expected economic costs of adjusting the level of committed resources. Anticipated slack resource costs associated with a decline in revenue activity increase with the permanence of the decline. These observations provide the basis for a set of hypotheses that are 17 consistent with sticky cost behavior resulting from managers weighing the economic consequences of their decisions. 4.1 Hypotheses Since the likelihood that a revenue decline is transitory is greater in periods when the economy is growing, managers who weigh the economic consequences should reduce committed resources less in periods of macroeconomic growth than in other periods. In addition, shortages of labor in periods of economic growth increase the cost of replacing retrenched employees, reinforcing this stickiness. Therefore, we make the following hypothesis. Hypothesis 2a: SG&A costs exhibit greater stickiness during periods of macroeconomic growth. If revenue declines occur in successive periods, managers’ assessment of the probability that the declines are permanent will increase. In the second year of decline, managers who weigh the economic consequences of their actions will be more willing to reduce the level of committed resources provided. Hypothesis 2b: Stickiness of SG&A costs is lower in the second successive year of revenue decline than it is in the first year of revenue decline. 18 As the decision timeframe increases, a manager’s assessment of the permanence of changes in revenue becomes surer and the costs of adjusting committed SG&A resources for fluctuations in revenue become relatively lower. Making adjustments for short-term fluctuations in revenue, for instance, could be very expensive if adjustment costs are high and the variance of revenue is high. For these reasons, stickiness of activity costs is likely to be less pronounced over greater aggregations of time periods. Hypothesis 2c: Stickiness of SG&A costs declines with the aggregation of time periods. 4.2 Empirical Tests We investigate hypothesis 2a, that stickiness would be more pronounced in growth periods in the economy, by dividing the data into high growth and low growth periods based on relative GNP growth in each year.13 Results of separate estimations of model (I) using observations from high growth periods and low growth periods are presented in the first two numerical columns of table 7. The values of β̂1 in the “high growth” estimation of 0.5596 (t-statistic = 102.98) and in the “low growth” estimation of 0.5197 (t-statistic = 71.30) are similar to those obtained previously for estimates of model (I). The magnitude of the stickiness coefficient, β̂ 2 , however, is significantly greater (t-statistic = 5.85) in high growth periods ( β̂ 2 = -0.2368) than in low growth periods ( β̂ 2 = -0.1471). This indicates more stickiness in high macroeconomic growth periods, consistent with hypothesis 2a. The final two columns of table 7 report results of pooled regressions with interaction terms for economic growth and decreases in sales revenue. In the first of these 13 This is similar to a classification scheme used by Lev and Thiagarajan [1993]. 19 columns (second from the right), the interaction term includes a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 for the higher growth years in the sample. The significantly negative coefficient on this interaction term, β̂ 3 = -0.0716 (t-statistic = -4.69), supports the notion that stickiness is greater in periods of macroeconomic growth. In the other column, the interaction term includes a continuous variable, the percentage growth in real GNP. Again, the significantly negative coefficient of -0.0182 (t-statistic = -3.80) supports the hypothesis that stickiness is greater during periods of macroeconomic growth. Table 8 provides results from estimating model (I) with an additional interaction term for a second consecutive year of revenue decline. In this specification, stickiness is measured by β̂ 2 for firms with only one year of revenue decline and by β̂ 2 + β̂ 3 for firms with at least two consecutive years of revenue decline. The value of β̂ 2 + β̂ 3 = -0.0490 is significantly less than zero (p-value = 0.001), indicating that there is some stickiness in the second consecutive year of revenue decline. Since the magnitude of β̂ 2 of -0.3051 is significantly greater than the magnitude of β̂ 2 + β̂ 3 of -0.0490 (t-statistic of the difference β̂ 3 is 23.76), stickiness is significantly higher for firms with only one year of revenue decline when compared to firms with two or more consecutive years of revenue decline. This is consistent with hypothesis 2b. The four columns in table 9 present the results of estimating model (I) for one, two, three and four year aggregation periods. These results show that β̂ 2 decreases as the aggregation period increases (test of equality of β̂ 2 for each pair of aggregation periods is rejected at the 5% significance level), indicating that stickiness diminishes with the length of the aggregation period, consistent with hypothesis 2c. 20 Managers’ weighing the economic consequences of their actions motivates hypotheses 2a, 2b, and 2c. An alternative explanation for sticky cost behavior is that managers’ decisions are distorted by personal concerns. While an argument might be made that these three hypotheses could also be consistent with managers making decisions based on personal concerns, the argument requires a strong set of assumptions.14 5. Conclusion The evidence presented in this study documents, in a broad sense, the prevalence of sticky cost behavior for SG&A costs. In contrast to the commonly received model of fixed and variable costs, this evidence is consistent with an alternative model of cost behavior that recognizes managerial discretion in adjusting the level of activity resources provided in response to changes in the demand for activity resources. These results have important consequences for research and teaching in cost accounting and in other areas of accounting where costs are analyzed in relation to revenue changes. Textbook descriptions of procedures for estimating cost functions recommend regression analysis that estimates the average amount of the change in costs associated with 14 One might argue that hypotheses 2a, 2b, and 2c are consistent with managers incurring slack resource costs for personal reasons as follows. Assume that a manager’s information about the permanence of a revenue decline is private, and not revealed to his supervisor (principal). Then, in order to justify the incurring of slack resource costs in a period of revenue decline, leading to sticky costs, the manager may misrepresent a permanent revenue decline as being transitory. The manager can thus justify his decision as being economically optimal for the firm, and hide his personal considerations. When revenue declines occur during periods of economic contraction or in consecutive periods, or when revenue declines over a longer period, a representation that the revenue decline is transitory is likely to be less credible, and therefore the manager is less likely to incur slack resource costs. This argument, however, rests on the strong assumptions that the manager’s incentives to take value-maximizing actions are outweighed by personal concerns, that information on the permanent or transitory nature of revenue declines is privately available to the manager and not to his principal, and that the manager cannot be penalized ex post when his misrepresentation that the revenue decline is transitory is revealed to be false. 21 a unit change in the activity driver (e.g. Hilton [1997, pp. 312-315], Horngren, Foster, and Datar [1999, pp. 338-339]). Making such estimations without considering sticky cost behavior leads to underestimation of the responsiveness of costs to increases in activity and overestimation of the responsiveness of costs to decreases in activity. To arrive at a benchmark cost for variance analysis, textbook instructions for flexible budgeting indicate that the budgeted cost should be flexed symmetrically for both positive and negative differences between the actual and initial budget quantity (Hilton [1997, pp. 526-530], Horngren, Foster, and Datar [1999, pp. 222-224]). Such methods that ignore the asymmetry in cost changes with increases and decreases in activity are likely to cause distortions in the managerial decisions based on cost analysis. Early proponents of activity-based costing recommended that a product be considered for elimination if its full costs based on activity analysis exceed its selling price. This prescription relies on the belief that when the sales volume goes down so will the costs. But costs may not fall automatically as a consequence of reduction in volume. A marketing manager in the Schrader-Bellows case (Cooper [1985]) suggests a similar idea: “There is a natural resistance to dropping products, and some of that resistance is justified. It was my experience as director of marketing that often when products are dropped, the sales go away but the costs do not and there is no improvement in profitability. It is difficult to eliminate overhead and very hard to believe that costs will go away with selective rationalization.” By demonstrating that cost reductions in response to reductions in activity volume require deliberate managerial decisions, our study lends credence to this argument. 22 Assumptions about SG&A costs being proportional to sales revenue are prevalent also in other branches of accounting, such as financial statement analysis and auditing. A common procedure in financial statement analysis involves comparison of SG&A expense items as a percentage of net sales across firms within an industry or over time for a specific firm (White, Sondhi, and Fried [1997, p. 148]). Analysts interpret a disproportionate increase in selling expenses as a negative signal because it may represent a loss of managerial control or an unusual sales effort (Bernstein and Wild [1998, p. 583], Mintz [1999]). This analysis may be misleading because the underlying assumption that selling expenses move proportionately with sales is not empirically valid when the data include both sales increases and decreases. Similarly, auditors implicitly assume that costs should move proportionately with sales when performing analytical review procedures (Messier [1997, p. 563]). These procedures may be improved by a better understanding of how SG&A costs change with revenues, leading to greater efficiency in identifying when additional analysis may be required in auditing a firm. The empirical models employed in this study provide a platform for further research on the causes and consequences of sticky cost behavior. While the use of Compustat data enabled documentation of the prevalence of sticky cost behavior for a large cross-section of firms, it did not permit finer disaggregation of the SG&A costs. Future research using finer data may provide information on cost behavior for different components of SG&A costs as well as other types of costs. Evidence was also provided that sticky cost behavior is consistent with deliberate decision-making by managers who weigh the economic consequences of their actions. 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New York: Irwin McGrawHill, 1997. 27 Table 1 Summary statistics Panel A: Distribution of annual revenue and SG&A costs during the period 1979 – 1998a Mean Sales revenue $1277.09 Standard deviation $5983.43 Median $87.53 Lower quartile $17.51 Upper quartile $447.75 Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs $229.45 $1042.49 $17.49 $4.56 $79.12 SG&A costs as a percentage of revenue 26.41% 17.79% 22.62% 13.66% 34.31% Panel B: Periodic fluctuations in revenue and SG&A costs during the period 1979 – 1998b Sales revenue SG&A costs 10.99% Upper quartile of percentage decreases across periods 23.76% Lower quartile of percentage decreases across periods 4.38% 10.07% 21.63% 3.94% Median percentage decrease across periods 17.45% Standard deviation of percentage decreases across periods 18.64% 15.67% 16.40% Percentage of firm-years with negative percentage change from previous period 27.01% Mean percentage decrease across periods 24.98% a All the reported numbers are in millions of dollars. The distribution of sales revenue and SG&A costs is for a population of 64,663 firm-year observations from 7,629 firms in the 1999 Compustat data set that satisfy the following selection criteria: no missing observations for the current and preceding year sales revenue (Annual Compustat item # 12), no missing observations for the current and preceding year SG&A costs (Annual Compustat item # 189), and no firm years in which SG&A costs exceeded sales revenue. b Observations with a negative change in sales revenue form the basis for the reported numbers in the first row. Observations with a negative change in SG&A costs form the basis for the reported numbers in the second row. 28 Table 2 Results of regressing annual changes in SG&A on annual changes in sales revenue for the twenty year period 1979 – 1998a Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) a Pooled estimation Fixed effects estimationb β̂ 0 0.0481 (39.88) 0.0736 (4.22) β̂1 0.5459 (164.11) 0.5382 (158.73) β̂ 2 -0.1914 (-26.14) -0.1906 (-25.51) Adjusted R2 0.3663 0.3730 Number of observations 63,958 63,958 Regression specification: SG & A i, t Re venue i, t Re venue i, t log = β 0 + β 1 log + β 2 * Decrease _ Dummy i ,t * log + ε i ,t SG & A i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 Decrease_Dummy takes the value of 1 when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1, zero otherwise. To eliminate the influence of extreme observations, 705 observations with values of any variable in the top or bottom 0.5% of its distribution were trimmed from the sample of 64,663 firm-year observations, resulting in 63,958 observations. b The regression specification is the same as the basic model with dummy variables for industries and years. The estimated coefficients for the industry and year dummies are not reported. 29 Table 3 Results of estimating the model relating SG&A costs to sales revenue for the twenty year period 1979-1998 with assets and number of employees as additional driversa Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) a β̂ 0 Pooled estimation 0.0333 (26.12) Fixed effects estimation 0.0769 (4.73) β̂1 0.3769 (86.41) 0.3760 (85.82) β̂ 2 -0.1050 (-11.67) -0.1093 (-12.07) β̂ 3 0.1504 (35.05) 0.1469 (34.20) β̂ 4 -0.0504 (-5.05) -0.0466 (-4.65) β̂ 5 0.2026 (38.11) 0.2027 (38.06) β̂ 6 -0.0587 (-6.21) -0.0577 (-6.11) Adjusted R2 0.4346 0.4393 Number of observations 54,810 54,810 Regression specification: Re venue i, t Revenue i,t SG & A i, t log + + β 2 Decrease _ Dummy i ,t * log = β 0 + β1 log Revenue i,t -1 Revenue i, t -1 SG & A i,t -1 Re venue i, t -1 Revenue i,t -1 β 3 log + β 4 Decrease _ Dummy i ,t −1 * log Revenue i,t -2 Revenue i, t -2 Assets i,t Assets i, t β 5 log + + β 6 Decrease _ A _ Dummy i ,t * log Assets i, t -1 Assets i,t -1 Employees i, t Employees i,t β 7 log + ε i ,t + β 8 Decrease _ E _ Dummy i ,t * log Employees i, t-1 Employees i, t -1 Decrease_Dummy takes value of 1 when the revenue in period t is less than that in t-1, Decrease_A_Dummy takes the value of 1 when the total assets in period t are less than in t-1, and Decrease_E_Dummy takes the value of 1 when the number of employees in period t is less than in t-1. 30 Table 4 Results of regressing annual changes in SG&A on annual changes and lagged annual changes in sales revenue for the twenty year period 1979 – 1998a Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) a Pooled estimation Fixed effects estimationb β̂ 0 0.0333 (25.90) 0.0668 (3.91) β̂1 0.5328 (130.43) 0.5295 (128.67) β̂ 2 -0.1876 (-23.47) -0.1879 (-23.26) β̂ 3 0.1038 (29.79) 0.1017 (28.92) β̂ 4 0.1042 (13.23) 0.0995 (12.53) Adjusted R2 0.3893 0.3936 Number of observations 56,420 56,420 Regression specification SG & A i, t Re venue i,t Re venue i, t log = β 0 + β1 log + β 2 Decrease _ Dummy i ,t * log + Revenue SG & A i, t -1 i, t -1 Revenue i, t-1 Revenue i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 β 3 log + β 4 Decrease _ Dummy i ,t −1 * log + ε i ,t Revenue i,t -2 Revenue i,t -2 Decrease_Dummyi,t takes a value of 1 when revenue of the ith firm for period t is less than that in the preceding period. b The regression specification is the same as the above specification with dummy variables for industries and years. The estimated coefficients for the industry and year dummies are not reported. 31 Table 5 Results from estimating regression of change in SGA on changes in revenue during the current and the preceding periods, change in number of employers and change in assets jointly with regression of change in revenue on change in SGAduring the current and the preceding periodsa EQUATION 1 EQUATION 2 Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) a Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) α̂ 0 0.0144 (3.49) γ̂ 0 -0.0488 (-20.01) α̂1 0.4671 (11.49) γ̂ 1 1.5285 (131.53) α̂ 2 -0.2207 (-4.93) γ̂ 2 0.2284 (18.27) α̂ 3 0.0602 (6.09) α̂ 4 0.0839 (3.54) α̂ 5 0.2350 (63.05) α̂ 6 0.0489 (3.93) Adjusted R2 0.3864 0.3236 Number of observations 50,974 50,974 Regression specification: SGA i,t Re venuei, t Revenuei, t EQUATION 1 : log = α 0 + α 1 log + α 2 Decrease _ Dummyi,t * log + SGA i, t -1 Re venuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 α 3 log + α 4 Decrease_Dummyi,t −1 * log + Revenuei, t −2 Revenuei, t − 2 Assetsi, t Employeesi, t α 5 log + α 6 log + ϑ i, t Assetsi, t −1 Employeesi, t −1 SGAi, t −1 SGAi, t Revenuei, t EQUATION 2 : log + ζi, t +1 + γ 2 log = γ 0 + γ1 log SGAi, t −2 SGAi, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 Decrease_Dummyi,t takes the value of 1 when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1; zero otherwise. 32 Table 6 Results from estimating regression of change in non-advertising SGA on changes in revenue during the current and the preceding periods jointly with regression of change in revenue on change in advertising cost in the current and the preceding periodsa EQUATION 1 EQUATION 2 Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) α̂ 0 0.0268 (12.37) γ̂ 0 0.0751 (38.92) α̂1 0.6298 (68.77) γ̂ 1 0.2214 (51.69) α̂ 2 -0.1232 (-6.56) γ̂ 2 0.1007 (24.05) α̂ 3 0.1158 (15.55) α̂ 4 0.1142 (6.11) System weighted R2 0.3629 Number of observations 13,955 a Regression specification: nonAdvSGAi, t Re venuei, t Revenuei, t EQUATION 1 : log = α 0 + α 1 log + α 2 Decrease _ Dummyi,t * log + nonAdvSGAi, t -1 Re venuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 Revenuei, t −1 α 3 log + α 4 Decrease_Dummyi,t −1 * log + ϑ i, t Revenuei, t − 2 Revenuei, t − 2 Advi, t −1 Advi, t Revenuei, t EQUATION 2 : log + ζi, t +1 + γ 2 log = γ 0 + γ1 log Advi, t − 2 Advi,t −1 Revenuei, t −1 Decrease_Dummyi,t takes the value of one when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1; zero otherwise. 33 Table 7 Effect of macroeconomic growth on the stickiness of SG&A costs Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) High growth periodsa,b 0.0526 (23.46) Low growth periodsa,c 0.0448 (18.34) High and low growth periodsd,e 0.0493 (29.80) High and low growth periodsd,f 0.0493 (29.81) β̂1 0.5596 (102.98) 0.5197 (71.30) 0.5466 (126.46) 0.5465 (126.43) β̂ 2 -0.2368 (-17.32) -0.1471 (-9.76) -0.1585 (-12.03) -0.1473 (-8.76) -0.0716 (-4.69) -0.0182 (-3.80) β̂ 0 β̂ 3 Adjusted R2 0.3974 0.3323 0.3757 0.3756 Number of observations 20,045 15,055 35,104 35,104 a Regression specification for columns1 and 2: SG & A i, t Re venue i, t Re venue i, t log = β 0 + β1 log + β 2 * Decrease _ Dummy i ,t * log + ε i ,t SG & A i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 Decrease_Dummy takes the value of 1 when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1, zero otherwise. b The regression is based on annual observations for Compustat years 1983, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1994, 1996, 1997 and 1998. c The regression is based on annual observations for Compustat years 1980, 1981, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1995. d Regression specification for columns 3 and 4: SGA i, t Re venuei, t Re venuei, t log = β 0 + β1 log + β 2 * Decrease _ Dummyi ,t * log + SGA i, t -1 Revenuei, t -1 Revenuei, t -1 Re venuei, t β 3 Decrease _ Dummyi ,t * Growth * log + ε i ,t Revenuei, t -1 Decrease_Dummyi,t takes the value of 1 when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1, zero otherwise. e Growth takes the value of one in periods of high GNP growth and the value of zero in periods of low GNP growth. f Growth takes the value of the percentage growth in real GNP for the period. 34 Table 8 Results of estimating the model relating SG&A costs to sales revenue for the twenty year period 1979-1998 with an additional dummy variable for consecutive loss yearsa Coefficient estimates (t-statistics) β̂ 0 0.0478 (39.84) β̂1 0.5463 (164.95) β̂ 2 -0.3051 (-34.98) β̂ 3 0.2561 (23.76) Adjusted R2 0.3718 Number of observations 63,958 a Regression specification: Re venuei, t Re venuei,t SG & A i,t log + β 2 * Decrease _ Dummyi ,t * log + = β 0 + β1 log Revenuei,t -1 Revenuei,t -1 SG & A i, t -1 Re venuei, t β 3 * Successive _ Decreasei ,t * log + ε i ,t Revenuei, t -1 Decrease_Dummy takes the value of 1 when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1, zero otherwise. Successive_Decrease dummy equals 1 if the revenue in period t is less than that in period t-1 which is less than that in period t-2, and zero otherwise. 35 Table 9 Results of regressing SG&A on changes in sales revenue for different aggregation periodsa Aggregation period One yearc Two yearsc Three yearsd Four yearse β̂ 0 0.0481 (39.88) 0.0574 (25.12) 0.0603 (16.31) 0.0783 (16.67) β̂1 0.5459 (164.11) 0.6816 (141.91) 0.7148 (104.71) 0.7427 (97.00) β̂ 2 -0.1914 (-26.14) -0.1569 (-13.40) -0.0919 (-5.56) -0.0343 (-1.76) Adjusted R2 0.3663 0.5349 0.5933 0.6513 Number of observations 63,958 26,052 12,398 8,565 a Regression specification: SG & A i, t Re venue i, t Re venue i, t log = β 0 + β1 log + β 2 * Decrease _ Dummy i ,t * log + ε i ,t SG & A i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 Revenue i, t -1 Decrease_Dummy takes the value of 1 when revenue in period t is less than revenue in t-1, zero otherwise. 36 View publication stats