Final paper – Week 9
Class: Emerging Energy and the Law
“Alternative fuels in transportation – exploring
opportunities and viability the use of green
hydrogen to power public transit buses in large
cities globally”
Table of Contents
What is hydrogen?..................................................................................................................... 3
Ways of hydrogen production ................................................................................................... 3
Hydrogen colors ........................................................................................................................ 4
Map of existing hydrogen refueling infrastructure ..................................................................... 5
Basic financial metrics ............................................................................................................... 7
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 8
List of resources …………………………………………………………………………………….... 10
For the vast percentage of the working population, typical morning looks something like
this – Wake up, get some water/coffee, breakfast, get dressed, go to work. For someone who
lived in mostly in large cities for the majority of my life, the ‘go to work’ part has frequently been
a challenge. For example, London, where I lived for two years, has approximately 8.9 million
people and 2.6 million licensed cars on the road1. Kyiv, my original home, has about 700
thousand vehicles for a 4 million population2. In addition, other hundreds of thousands of nonLondoners or non-Kyivans commute to those large cities almost every day for work.
Therefore, the goal of shifting people from the personal vehicles and getting them to use
public transit is a worthwhile endeavor on several levels. In my final paper I will attempt to
explore the financial, operational and environmental aspects and viability of green hydrogen use
in the public transit system, and why hydrogen over EV. I define public bus transit system as a
form of transportation that charges set fares and runs on set routes, and is available to the
public.
But let’s talk hydrogen.
Hydrogen is the simplest element, yet the most abundant element in the universe3. US
EIA dedicates a whole section to explain Hydrogen on its website, clearly recognizing its
potential benefits. It is a gas at normal temperature and pressure, but condenses to a liquid at 423 degrees Fahrenheit (- 253 degrees Celsius). As it pertains to transportation and a potential
to replace gasoline and diesel-powered machinery, it is worth highlighting that hydrogen has the
highest energy content of any common fuel by weight (3x more than gasoline), but it has the
lowest energy content by volume (4x less than gasoline).
One of the obstacles to wide adoption of hydrogen today is that it actually takes more
energy to produce hydrogen (by separating it from other elements in molecules) than hydrogen
provides when it is converted to useful energy. However, hydrogen is useful as an energy
source/fuel because it has a high energy content per unit of weight, which is why it is already
used, for example, as a rocket fuel and in fuel cells to produce electricity on some spacecraft.
And even thought hydrogen is not widely used as a fuel now, it has the potential for greater use
in the future.
Hydrogen occurs naturally on earth only in compound form with other elements in
liquids, gases, or solids. Since hydrogen doesn’t occur naturally in a pure form, to produce
hydrogen, it must be separated from the other elements in the molecules where it occurs. There
are many different sources of hydrogen and ways for producing it for use as a fuel. The two
most common methods for producing hydrogen are steam-methane reforming and electrolysis.
Steam-methane reforming is a widely used method of commercial hydrogen production
(represents 95% of all production)4.
Steam-methane reforming currently accounts for nearly all commercially produced
hydrogen in the United States. Commercial hydrogen producers and petroleum refineries use
steam-methane reforming to separate hydrogen atoms from carbon atoms in methane (CH4). In
steam-methane reforming, high-temperature steam (1,300°F to 1,800°F) under 3–25 bar
pressure (1 bar = 14.5 pounds per square inch) reacts with methane in the presence of a
catalyst to produce hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a relatively small amount of carbon dioxide
(CO2).
Natural gas is the main methane source for hydrogen production by industrial facilities
and petroleum refineries. Landfill gas/biogas, which may be called biomethane or renewable
natural gas, is a source of hydrogen for several fuel cell power plants in the United States.
Biofuels and petroleum fuels are also potential hydrogen sources.
Electrolysis uses electricity to produce hydrogen5
Electrolysis is a process that splits hydrogen from water using an electric current.
Electrolysis is commonly used to demonstrate chemical reactions and hydrogen production in
high school science classes. On a large, commercial scale, the process may be referred to as
power-to-gas, where power is electricity and hydrogen is gas. Electrolysis itself does not
produce any byproducts or emissions other than hydrogen and oxygen. The electricity for
electrolysis can come from renewable sources, nuclear energy, or fossil fuels. If the electricity
for electrolysis is produced from fossil fuel (coal, natural gas, and petroleum) or biomass
combustion, then the related environmental effects and CO2 emissions are indirectly associated
with that hydrogen.
Other methods of producing hydrogen6
Research is underway to develop other ways to produce hydrogen and a few include:
•
Converting biomass into gas or liquids and separating the hydrogen
•
Using solar energy technologies to split hydrogen from water molecules
•
And my personal favorite, using microbes that use light to make hydrogen
Frequently, we hear about colors of hydrogen10, such as ‘green hydrogen’, ‘grey
hydrogen’, ‘pink hydrogen’, ‘brown hydrogen’. In reality, it indicates a type of technology and a
source of energy to produce hydrogen. In terms of properties, none of the colors make any
difference – i.e., green, pink, grey etc. are the same hydrogen when it comes to use in vehicle
fuel cells. Of course, for practical reasons, there is still a difference. Different ways of hydrogen
production are prone to have different environmental impact, and as such, we can’t look at this
dilemma in isolation from any other aspect of transportation evaluation.
The Hydrogen Rainbow
Since passing the Energy Policy Act of 19927, hydrogen is considered an alternative
vehicle fuel.
Interest in further research and technology development is three-fold:
-Power fuel cells in zero-emission vehicles;
-Potential for domestic production;
-Fuel cell’s potential for high efficiency
On the surface, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have added benefits when compared to the
use of pure electric vehicle (EV) transportation. Today they can run for approximately 300 miles
and do not lose range in cold weather. On top of that, hydrogen fuel cells are lighter than the
batteries8 used in electric vehicles and take about 5-8 minutes to refuel. This could make them
more suitable for long distance and commercial vehicle operations, such as fleet and heavy
vehicle use. However, we’re not seeing a significant adoption of this technology, so let’s try to
understand why.
For a typical technology adoption, we would start evaluating our investment based on
the budget, economies and economic reasons. The high cost of fuel cells and the limited
availability of hydrogen vehicle fueling stations have limited the number of hydrogen-fueled
vehicles in use today. We are truly looking at the catch-22 type situation. Production of
hydrogen-fueled vehicles is limited because people won't buy those vehicles if hydrogen
refueling stations are not easily accessible, and companies won't build refueling stations if they
do not have customers with hydrogen-fueled vehicles. Per AFDC research9, there is only a
handful of hydrogen refueling stations in the US today, clustered primarily on the west coast
(Los Angeles area and San Francisco – San Jose area)
Hydrogen Fueling Station Locations in the US, 2022
A big problem! But a rather narrow outlook. See, typical investment cycle is based on a
business case consideration. Owners of refueling stations run them as a business. Car makers
run their enterprise as a business – and so they should. Under these assumptions, wide
hydrogen vehicle adoption will happen exactly never.
But my analysis, hopefully, helps to break this barrier. Reasons for considering hydrogen-
powered buses, specifically, is that there are benefits outside of the typical cost analysis. Let’s
throw in some benefits and considerations:
Traffic problem is not unique to the United States. According to Inrix11, in 2017 top most
congested cities in the world were: Los Angeles, Moscow, New York, London, Paris, Bangkok,
Jakarta, Istanbul, Mexico. In Los Angeles, drivers are expected to spend on average 102 hours
in congestion during peak hours every year. Mexico City – 58 hours. Jakarta – 63 hours.
London – 74 hours. Remember our discussion of the number of vehicles in London. 2.6 million
cars x 74 hours per year is an exorbitant amount of economic activity loss. In addition, gasoline
cars in these cities (still a majority) emit enormous amount of GHG – in fact, CO2 emissions
reach as high as 1100 g/mi12 for an average-size car traveling at 5 mph. Times how many
million cars, again?
And this leads to huge consequences. Turns out, there is a great social cost aspect to
these calculations. Increase in GHG means quality of air decreases. It means lung diseases run
rampant. It affects other aspects of life. Some large cities implemented measures to reduce
number of vehicles (such as fee to access certain parts of the city, alternating the dates where
cars can enter city limits based on the last digit of the license plate etc. – but with the growing
number of vehicles, these measures aren’t enough by themselves. Hydrogen-based public
transit is here to address these issues. Imagine moving only 10% of city population that actively
uses personal transport to city buses? That would be such a relief to city congestion – and will
benefit everyone.
But, which hydrogen to choose? True, earlier we agreed that hydrogen is hydrogen,
regardless of its origin. For our broader approach, however, it truly does matter where the
hydrogen is coming from. We’re trying to take transportation efficiency angle, but we shouldn’t
forget to consider environmental aspect, social aspect etc. For example, what about long-term
medical costs for running public health centers and programs for those especially vulnerable to
low air quality? This is quantifiable, and reaches out way beyond the transportation budgets.
Let’s look at the cost of the hydrogen production from a variety of sources. Brown
hydrogen is cheaper than grey, grey is cheaper than green. In terms of carbon intensity, it’s the
other way around, with green being virtually carbon-footprint free.
Cost of Hydrogen Production by source
This matrix is important. On top of this, on the practical side of running a fleet of
hydrogen fuel cell—powered buses, let’s analyze some additional metrics:
Initial investment – cost of vehicle:
City diesel bus - $500k
City Electric vehicle - $750k
Hydrogen (2010) - $2M
Hydrogen (2022) - $1.27M (what a significant cost decrease in just a decade, for a
nascent technology!)
Cost of maintenance (per mile driven)
City diesel bus - $1.55
City Electric vehicle - $.55
Hydrogen - $.43
Emissions:
City diesel bus – 229,167lbs13 CO2
EV and Hydrogen fuel cell – close to 0
Utilization – time to refuel:
City diesel bus – 5 minutes
City Electric vehicle – 6-8 hours
Hydrogen – 7-9 minutes
Cost per mile driven:
City diesel bus – $1
Hydrogen – $0.93
Based on the above, when it comes to initial cost outlay (capital expenditure), hydrogen
fleet is by far the most expensive. Cost per mile driven is higher is comparable, but the cost to
service is lower.
And here’s the most important consideration. When evaluating business case for private fleet,
the cost of vehicle and cost of fuel/maintenance make up the bulk of analysis (things like
spaciousness, comfort, prestige are usually already accounted for in the vehicle price tag). But
when it comes to public transit vehicles, buses generate revenue. When we hear this, we
assume ticket sales revenue – but it doesn’t have to be a sole source of revenue.
As a matter of fact, I came up with these additional ideas and considerations, some
tangible, others less tangible, that might make this transition more financially lucrative for cities
(this list is not all-encompassing, there are literally dozens of additional options):
-Moving people away from personal vehicles – helps to avoid productivity loss due to being
stuck in traffic;
-Monthly passes – predictable revenue;
-Relative ease of refueling – routes are predictable, minimal infrastructure build-out required
(utilizing existing depots). Buses must be on the road, not in a garage or depot;
-More importantly, additional streams of revenue – partnerships, advertising, tourism (bus
branding);
-Possibility to attract significant upfront investment – municipal bonds;
-Regulatory assistance, including legislation, tax breaks opportunities;
-Economic activity and productivity growth in other areas
-Environmental benefits (social costs)
-Reduction of mortality on the roads
Some benefits are easy to calculate (such as number of monthly passes sold), some are
more difficult (what is the economic benefit of avoiding 1000 deaths due to road accidents, for
example?) – but the bottom line is that
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention infrastructure. One of the challenges of hydrogen car
owners is the lack of refueling infrastructure outside of two-three large population centers. The
idea of a cross-country trip in a hydrogen car today is simply unthinkable. However, we’re finally
seeing a breakthrough in the range that hydrogen vehicles can achieve. For example, in the last
six months, it was announced that the new hydrogen car from VW 15 will reach close to 1250
miles (2000 km) on a single tank. And when it comes to larger vehicles, Quantron14 claims their
truck can reach around 935 miles on a single tank. This is significant. This means, equivalent
Hydrogen bus averaging 20 mph in the city (due to the nature of operations, it’s frequent
go/stop/go), can operate for days without having to be refueled. Higher density of hydrogen
when compared to diesel engine makes for a more efficient vehicle design.
Finally, circling back to the original premise. We can make hydrogen fuel cell transit
buses work financially – but why green hydrogen specifically? First of all, this is where the
transportation issue meets the environmental aspect. Example: Removing 100 diesel buses
equates to 230 million lbs. of CO2 removed from the atmosphere, according to Proterra. But
that’s just at the point of consumption (i.e., pipe exhaust) – what about the entire supply chain to
product and refine oil, transport to station, refuel vehicles). That adds a significant chunk (exact
calculation, I am afraid, is beyond the scope of this paper). Green hydrogen produced through
electrolysis, using green energy, lowers emissions to almost 0. Because we’re taking about
large municipalities, the land upon which to deploy renewable generation facilities already exists
(it may be a step to revitalizing rundown areas of a city, for example, or building facilities out in
the suburbs). In addition, the actual refueling infrastructure buildout required is minimal – bus
depots already serve as refueling/recharging points, and those can be partially converted into
hydrogen stations.
And when it comes to implementing it in real world, we will need a regulatory and legal
framework. I am not taking about incentives to prohibit competitiveness. I am taking about legal
framework that will help to expedite the transition. This framework may provide certain tax
breaks, incentivize public investment, etc. At the end of the day, city population will benefit from
less congested roads, and improved air quality. Less money will be spent on fixing the
consequence of bad air quality. Less congestion, improved quality of transportation will draw
additional tourists (hotel room revenues up, taxes up) – and it will kick in motion chain of event.
We are beginning to see a traction in the hydrogen bus adoption. According to Hydrogen
Central latest study that came out just a week ago, approximately 4000 hydrogen buses were
delivered and deployed annually in the recent years, but that numbers starts to increase.
Overall, they project close to 650 thousand buses to be deployed globally in the next 15 years,
primarily driven in the large cities across Asia-Pacific and Europe.
Based on all the above, it is no wonder that my personal conviction is that wider
adoption of hydrogen public transit buses will carry long-lasting consequences and benefit cities
directly and indirectly, for many years to come.
List of references and useful resources:
1. Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/314980/licensed-cars-in-london-englandunited-kingdom/
2. Vox Ukraine, https://voxukraine.org/en/who-where-to-and-when-unexpected-results-ofthe-first-large-survey-of-kyiv-residents-movables/
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hydrogen/
4. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-natural-gas-reforming
5. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-electrolysis
6. U.S. Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hydrogen/production-of-hydrogen.php
7. Alternative Fuels Data Center https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/key_legislation#epact92
8. AMS Composites, https://ams-composites.com/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vs-lithium-ion-thefuture-of-transport/
9. Alternative Fuels Data Center
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=HY
10. Technicas Reunidas, Hydrogen present and future
https://www.tecnicasreunidas.es/articulo/hydrogen-present-and-future-part-2/
11. Inrix, Global Traffic Scorecard - https://inrix.com/resources/inrix-2017-global-trafficscorecard/
12. Access Magazine, Traffic Congestion and Greenhouse Gases
https://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2009/traffic-congestion-greenhouse-gases/
13. Proterra – Fuel Economy https://www.proterra.com/products/transit-buses/fuel-economy/
14. Hydrogen Centra, Quantron Hydrogen Powered Truck, Sep 2022 https://hydrogencentral.com/quantron-hydrogen-powered-truck-range-1500-km/
15. FuelCellsWorks, The New Hydrogen Car That Travels 2,000 km
https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/the-new-hydrogen-car-that-travels-2000-kilometers-witha-single-tank/
16. Hydrogen Central, Over 650 Thousand Hydrogen Fuel Cell Buses to Be Sold by 2037,
Says Information Trends, Mar 2023 https://hydrogen-central.com/over-650-thousandhydrogen-fuel-cell-buses-sold-2037-says-information-trends/