EXTENDED PROJECT QUALIFICATION
EPQ 2023
Pupil name: Baoting Zhang
EPQ title: Why do people like to invest in gold in China and what are
those potential factors of gold consumption?
Centre Number: 92362
Candidate Number: 453
Contents page
Contents Page
1
Abstract
2
Introduction
3
Literature review
4
Tradition of gold in China
4
Reason why people choose gold for investment
6
Modern means of gold investment
11
Increase trend of gold investment
12
Previous mentioned factors of gold consumption change
13
Discussion
15
Personal idea of factors of gold consumption change
15
Dependent variables
16
Methodology
18
Results and Analysis
20
Evaluation and further improvement
24
Conclusion
28
Bibliography
29
1
Abstract
In this essay, the factors that affect how much gold is consumed in China as a form of
investment will be examined. The relation between several macroeconomic variables and
gold consumption as investment will be deeply analyzed throughout the paper. We will
conduct a regression analysis to determine the relationship and how these factors affect the
consumption of gold. The information will be approved from a variety of perspectives, of
including GDP growth, inflation, government spending revenue as a percentage of GDP, and
the USD/CNY exchange rate.
2
Introduction
It is a tradition in China that during meaningful festivals relatives especially the elderly will
give gold as a present to the younger generation as gold represents wealth and fortune. With
the development of the times, the usage of gold is extended, from simple decoration towards
a method of investment. Due to the historical context, several citizens prefer to purchase gold
for investment while others consider the characteristics of gold such as wealth protection.
Therefore, in this paper, several potential factors are discussed and tested with data to verify
whether the relation exist.
The reason why I choose this topic can be explained by my study of Economics in A-level. In
the starting chapters, money is discussed and the role of currency is mentioned. Relating it
with the country China which I belong to, I think I am interested in how currency is work.
With further learning, gold is the specific 'currency' that attracts me and I am also eager to dig
out reasons why people especially Chinese like buying gold. This project not only offered me
a change to deeply know how to use knowledge of relating topics but also improved my
academic research skills and ability to integrate information.
3
Literature review
1. Tradition of gold in China
1)
how gold is used in ancient time
'Gold was the chieck symbol of prestige and incorruptibility for the elite in most
cultures.' (Bunker, 1993c). In the general history, as gold is precious and pure, there is
limited supply and people at that time regarded gold as treasure. At start, items forged
from gold were only passed around the royal family. Vessels was the initial usage while
later on jewellery and bullion were extra applications. Countries like China which has
rich history use gold in far more areas. It is obvious that jade and bronze were symbol of
honour, with the observation of gold, it replaced the work done by jade to some extent.
To decorate objects made of various materials, gold was utilized and later on it was used
for massive artifacts and ultimately adorned the dead.
2） special meaning of gold in China
During the past especially around Shang Dynasty, there were great number of gold
jewellery, gold-leaf and other types of decoration. Chinese people are addicted to
enshrine previous gold decorations, for the beauty and more importantly the stories
behind them. Apart from the collection purpose, gold symbolizes rich and honor
especially in China as Chinese consider the unique color of gold could bring wealth to
them.
According to the World Gold Council, it is said: 'Gold is often gifted to younger
members of the family for special occasions in China, and there is a tradition of giving
4
gold to new born babies in the form of tiny necklaces or bracelets.' (China’s Gold Market
and Demand | World Gold Council, n.d.-d)
This could explain why people in China gold as a normal action instead of considering it
as a luxury.
3） development of usage of gold
In the past, gold was initially used for artifacts and later during Tang Dynasty, gold and
silver are used for exchange.However, silver is more popular as the ratio of gold to silver
is around 1:5. Normally, people use silver for barter followed by using paper money as it
existed in Northern Song Dynasty. Later on, the emergence of the Bretton Woods system
after World War II led to a direct link between gold and currency (the dollar)(Kumar,
2014). These days as the system had been disintegrated, gold can not act as 'money' but
only used for barter and investment in financial areas. The news of Chinese purchased
significant number of gold in America in 2013 which made them earn a lot are still
influential these days. Many young people start buying gold not only for satisfying
demand for consumption but also for saving as gold is a store of value. The popular
method like jointly-designed product and investing gold attract great amount of citizens.
Contemporary gold "decorations" serve both as ornaments and, to some extent,
investments. (Who is pushing young people to buy gold? _Chow Tai Fook_China_Brand,
n.d.-c)
4） when gold starts to function as a mean of investment
In the history of the world, after the Bretton Woods System be abolished, the IMF
published the Article of the International Money Fund and indicated that it was free to
5
buy and sell gold on the market. (Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary
Fund, 2022)
Without strict controls and interventions by governments and countries, gold began
acting as the market's resource allocator. The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX)
launched gold futures trading in 1975 and citizens have been investing in gold from that
time. In the following years, gold was used for a assisting in controlling capital market
and country's development. For instance, in the early 1980s, Reagan was elected
president of the United States and he implemented a policy of tightening the money and
high interest rates and increased the opportunity cost of owning gold through strategy.
When it comes to the most significant year of gold investment, that must be 1993 as
diversified gold derivatives and finance products were introduced by the gold market.
(History of the development of the world gold market, n.d.)
2. Reason why people choose gold for investment
1）stable return for saving
When people define whether a financial product is profitable, return for saving is a good
indicator. Observing the first graph of the rate of return of gold as investment from 2002
to 2022, out of two exceptions, the return on gold is often positive. During this period,
there was only significant drop to -30% in 2013 while in the rest time the rate of return is
considerable. However, the second graph shows that the rates of return of US stock and
EM stock are slightly higher than the one of gold and some may argue that why not
investing in US stock to gain more return. When we look at the US stock market return
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in a longer period, it is obvious that the fluctuation is fiercer. Almost a quarter of the
time underwent negative return which is not a ideal decision for investment.
Figure1. Rate of return of gold as investment (2002-2022)1
Figure2. Average annual return of different asset (1971-2022)2
1
2
Rate of return of gold as investment (2002-2022)
Resource: statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/274002/return-on-gold-as-an-investment-since-2002/
Average annual return of different asset (1971-2022)
Resource: statista
7
Figure3. Stock Market Return in United States ( 1967-2022）3
2）Short run: wealth protection
As the short run anti-inflation capacity of gold is not such considerable, so we classify its
usage in the short run as 'safe haven'. 'Safe haven' is defined as an asset that is
uncorrelated or negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio in times of market
stress or turmoil. In the history, there are quite a lot evidences and events showing the
stability of gold.
At times of uncertainty, when asset prices become murky owing to investors'
unwillingness to trade, gold activity may grow due to the relative simplicity of the gold
market. As a result, gold may become an appealing investment, particularly during
instances of financial market instability (Baur and McDermott, 2010). For example,
since the start of the financial crisis in July 2007, the nominal gold price has increased by
https://www-statista-com.fgul.idm.oclc.org/statistics/1061434/gold-other-assets-average-annual-returns-global/?loc
ale=en
3 Stock Market Return in United States (1967-2022)
Resource: trading economics
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market-return-percent-year-on-year-wb-data.html
8
more than 200%.Besides, unlike other financial assets, gold's value tends to rise in
reaction to negative market shocks. The beauty of gold is that it enjoys bad news.
In times of market turmoil, gold can act as haven to investors but only protect wealth for
around 15 days. As the supply is relatively stable, we assume the change in price
indicates the change in demand. Generally analyzing Figure4, the demand for gold
surged from around 2500 to 60000. In the marked period such as oil price plunge and US
dollar index hit new lows, the gold price is affected significantly. The existence of global
vital events lead to drop in gold price in following periods. Though these fluctuations do
not influence the overall price significantly in the long run, in the short run this will still
affect gold price to some extent. To be more detailed, in the longer run, gold is not a safe
haven, that is, investors that hold gold more than 15 trading days after an extreme
negative shock lose money with their gold investment. This might explain why this
function only work in 'short run' instead of long run.
Figure4. Gold price change (1973-2023)4
4
Gold price change (1973-2023)
Resource: gold price organization
https://goldprice.org/
9
3）Long run: anti-inflation
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation
through inflation. There is no safe store of value.” - Alan Greenspan
The above quote is from an article written by Allan Greenspan in 1966 entitled "Gold
and Economic Freedom" in which he discusses the role of gold as money. Wealth
preservation has long been an attribute of gold and silver bullion, and the reason they
have functioned as money for over 3,000 years. Although prices of gold and silver, in
local currencies, may have fluctuated during both inflationary and deflationary periods,
precious metals have maintained or even increased their purchasing power in both
instances. Preserving purchasing power during an inflationary environment is an
indication that precious metals, such as gold, are immune to price increases.(Barisheff,
N.2005）
The article of wrote by Stephen Harmson demonstrates that gold's actual purchasing
power has not changed significantly over time, and other studies that compared changes
in the Consumer Price Index with the average price of gold in the US over the same time
period came to the same conclusions about the ability of gold investments to combat
inflation, at least in the US over the past 130 years. (Stephen Harmson,1998)
Hence, according to this report, it is clear that gold has the ability to anti-inflation in the
long run and has a relatively great capacity.
3. Modern means of gold investment
As it is mentioned in the previous research and analysis, investment gold mainly
involves tools such as jewellery, bullion, ETF, mutual funds, gold futures &
10
options and E-golds. (Nawaz, 2013)(TYPES OF GOLD INVESTMENTS | Gold
Price, 2018)
1) Bullion
Bullion is gold and silver that is officially recognized as being at least 99.5% and 99.9%
pure and is in the form of bars or ingots. It is often kept as a reserve asset by
governments and central banks. This method is relatively more common than others as
investors can directly buy gold and jewellery made of gold in the gold stores.
2) Mining stock
Furthermore, investing in gold through the purchase of gold mining stock is very
different from buying actual gold because people is buying stock in a firm rather than
actual gold. The index of gold mining stocks is affected not only by the price of gold, as
is the case with stock market operations, but also by other variables such as business
performance and shareholder activity. Hence, predicting the price of gold and choosing
the appropriate one is more difficult than just purchasing actual gold.
3) Exchange trade funds (ETF)
Exchange trade funds (ETF) for gold are a hybrid of the first two. This investment must
trade in a significant stock exchange in order to function, following a similar pattern as
the stock market. Furthermore, not all gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are backed by
real gold; others, like gold ETNs, employ derivatives.
11
Despite of various method of investment, in this essay I will focus on consumption of
gold in the form of physical gold including bullion and jewellery, ETF and mutual funds
are not taken in data calculation.
4. Increase trend of gold consumption
Because of data limitations, gold consumption in bullion, industry and the 'other' part
only contain the period of 2012-2019 while the one of jewellery started from 1987 and
ended at 2021. The overall gold consumption in China surges, starting from 40 tonnes in
1987 to more than 1000 tones in 2022, despite of the sharp drop in 2020 in almost all
areas. In order to compare the gold consumption of each sector in depth, we set the
observation period to 2012-2019. This period underwent an increase in total
consumption, 832.18 to 1002.78. While people are buying more golden jewellery and
use more of them in industry, they consume less bullion. The 'other' part in the diagram
includes fields like medicine, architecture, food and so on. In terms of ratio, bullion
purchase occupies a greater proportion while other area all had been reduced to varying
degrees.
12
Figure5. Gold consumption in China in different areas(1987-2022)5
5.Previous mentioned factors of gold consumption change
In the article of 'Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Price Innovation in
Gold', the author mentioned and tested a few factors affecting gold price. A range of
variables are taken into account, including GDP, growth rate, BSE Senex and NSE Index
and so on. For instance, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, forex reserves, inflation rate and
interest rate are five factors that have significant result which have statistical significance
that the P values are less than 0.05. Apart from that, the probability of consolidate
regressed values are less than 0.05, indicating that theses variables are jointly affect gold
pricing positively or negatively. (Bapna et al., 2012b)
Apart from this author, other scholars also approve the effect of variables on gold price
or consumption. As Beckmann et al mentioned in the ‘Causality and volatility patterns
between gold prices and exchange rates', exchange rate especially the one with US dollar
has special influence on gold price. As the relation between US exchange rate and gold
price is negative and hence prediction of gold price can be determined through this
process. Moreover, US dollar is the only currency for which a gold price increase results
in a depreciation. (Beckmann et al., 2015i)
Furthermore, the article 'OIL AND GOLD: CORRELATION OR CAUSATION?' by Le
& Change cl that the significance of the oil price percentage increase proxy indicates that
oil price increases appear to have greater impact on the gold price than inflation rate
when they follow a period of lower price increases. Hence, we suppose that oil price may
5
Gold consumption in China in different areas
Resource: CEIC
The line graph is made personally and the process and related raw data are in the package.
13
also influence gold consumption which will be tested in the regression as well. (Le &
Chang, 2011c)
Due to this accurate data provision, those influential factors are considered as a factor
affecting gold consumption in this essay.
14
Discussion
1. Personal idea of factors of gold consumption
1)
Government current spending to total GDP
As government spending is a component of injection in money circulation, government
spending will theoretically affect economic growth. Generally, increase in government
spending might lead to money in circular flow increases and represents economic growth.
Increase in economic growth might make people more confident about future and choose
to invest more.
2)
GDP growth rate
Stock market investments profit from rising GDP and, as a result, economic growth.
When consumers and governments spend more, business profits rise. These profits are
reinvested by businesses in an effort to increase profits over time even more. In order to
"make money with money," individuals may decide to invest their additional income.
Since investing in gold is a relatively simple and reliable process, it will be affected.
3)
Inflation rate
There is no doubt that higher inflation rates can have a detrimental effect on consumer
spending and purchasing power. High inflation can, however, also increase the return on
some investments. Apart from that, as mentioned previously, gold has a relatively strong
ability to anti-inflation and protect wealth, people might not be afraid of invest in gold
because of this special character compared with other approach.
4)
Exchange rate of USD to CNY
15
It has been suggested that the strength of US dollar have effect on gold price. I suppose
that the relative exchange rate of USD to CNY will have effect on gold consumption. As
earning money by purchasing foreign currency and selling it after it appreciates is a
common method, there might be a trade-off between gold consumption as investment
and this approach.
This four mentioned factors have specific and abundant data for regression, they are
involved in the regression.
2. Dependent variables
During the research we find out that gold investment not only contain physical gold but
also jewellery as well.
Figure6. 2012 Gold consumption in China6
6
2012 Gold consumption in China
Resource: CEIC
The bar chart is made personally and the process and related raw data are in the package.
16
Figure7. 2019 Gold consumption in China7
As can be seen clearly in two diagrams, though the proportion of various gold usage
change across 2012-2019, gold jewellery consumption continuously occupied the largest
proportion. Hence, apart from setting gold consumption per capital as a dependent
variable, gold jewellery consumption per capital is another dependent variable in the
separate regression. Using gold consumption per capital and gold jewellery consumption
per capital instead overall amount aims at eliminate the effect of population change.
7
2019 Gold consumption in China
Resource: CEIC
The bar chart is made personally and the process and related raw data are in the package.
17
Methodology
Research question
Do macro variables have impact on gold consumption in China?
Do macro variables influence gold jewellery consumption in China as well?
Null-hypothesis
H01=There is no impact of macroeconomic variables on gold consumption in China
H02=There is no impact of macroeconomic variables on gold jewellery consumption in
China
Period of the study
The related research data has been carried out for 35 years, ranging from the period 1987
to 2022 on annual basis.
Data resource
The data of gold consumption and gold jewellery consumption is from Statista while the
others are from the World bank.
Model of regression
We use linear regression to approve the relation between several macroeconomic
variables and gold consumption per capital.
Y0 represents gold consumption per capital
Y1 represents gold jewellery consumption per capital
Y0 = a+bx0
Y1 = a+bx1
18
Ys are dependent variables: gold consumption per capital and gold jewellery
consumption per capital while Xs are macroeconomic variables: inflation rate, exchange
rate of USD to CNY, government spending to GDP and GDP growth rate.
19
Results and Analysis
1. Government spending to GDP
Figure8. Regression data of government spending to GDP (gold consumption)8
Figure9. Regression data of government spending to GDP (gold jewellery consumption)9
P value are 0.0001215 and 0.00012318 which are less than the confidence level of 5%.
Hence, data show government spending to GDP has a significant impact on both gold
consumption and gold jewellery consumption in China.
8
Regression summary output of government spending to GDP (gold consumption)
Regression summary output of government spending to GDP (gold jewellery consumption)
All process and raw data are in the package (excel)
9
20
2. GDP growth rate
Figure10. Regression data of GDP growth rate (gold consumption)10
Figure11. Regression data of GDP growth rate (gold jewellery consumption)11
P value are 0.0130358 and 0.04085206 which are less than the confidence level of 5%.
Hence, data shows GDP growth rate has a significant impact on both gold consumption
and gold jewellery consumption in China.
10
Regression summary output of GDP growth rate (gold consumption)
Regression summary output of GDP growth rate (gold jewellery consumption)
All process and raw data are in the package (excel)
11
21
3. Inflation rate
Figure12. Regression data of inflation rate (gold consumption)12
Figure13. Regression data of inflation rate (gold jewellery consumption)13
P value are 0.03103509 and 0.023949 which are less than the confidence level of 5%.
Hence, data show GDP growth rate has a significant impact on both gold consumption
and gold jewellery consumption in China.
12
Regression summary output of inflation rate (gold consumption)
Regression summary output of inflation rate (gold jewellery consumption)
All process and raw data are in the package (excel)
13
22
4. Exchange rate of USD to CNY
Figure14. Regression data of exchange rate (gold consumption)14
Figure15. Regression data of exchange rate (gold jewellery consumption)15
However, the P values of exchange rate are 0.9 and 0.13 separately which are higher than
the confidence level. Hence, it is shown obviously that there is no remarkable statistical
significance.
Overall, we can reject H01 and H02 and GDP growth rate, inflation rate and government
spending to GDP have impacts on gold consumption and gold jewellery consumption in
China.
14
Regression summary output of exchange rate (gold consumption)
Regression summary output of exchange rate (gold jewellery consumption)
All process and raw data are in the package (excel)
15
23
24
Evaluation and further improvement
1. Evaluation
1)
Why exchange rate is not significant
This might be explained that exchange rate change at a relatively stable rate without
significant drop or rise. As it is stable while gold consumption has relatively more
obvious change, there might not be prominent effect of exchange rate on gold
consumption and gold jewellery consumption.
2）Data limitation
Due to data insufficiency as information of gold consumption only contain 35 years
which is insufficient, multi-variable regression is hard to accomplish. Hence, in this
paper, we only use single variable regression for several times to test the relation. If
abundant data exist, complex regression would approve more accurate relation and the
extent to which factors have different levels of influence on the gold consumption.
Apart from that, as the resource data do not ensure the real value and purchasing power
parity being constant, it is hard to identify the impact and hence the following factors are
not included in the regression.
2. Improvement - Other variable could be investigated but not
1) Government policy
As government will frequently release new policy and those directly related with reserve
are expected to influence gold consumption. For instance, if a government publish a new
policy such as store more gold for hedge and there is a same logic as mentioned that the
25
supply of gold available for citizens in the market will be lowered. As people might not
be rational, if they consider higher price indicates higher quality, they may demand more
and gold consumption might rise.
To be specific, Chinese people are interested in gold as investment and a common way to
predict gold price and evaluate whether to buy and sell is to follow the policy changed by
government and predict the influence.
However, as the policy is hard to measure and calculated using data, hence in our
regression, government policy will not be a factor.
2) Forex value
The correlation between Gold and paper currencies is a give and take that has been
taking place for decades. Countries use gold to increase the value of their currency but
must devalue their currency in order to obtain it. For instance, if an investor holds GBP
and realize the currency is going to depreciate because of some phenomenon exist such
as trade deficit and then he will switch to purchase gold.
In the case of China, more and more citizens focus on international events and devote
themselves into jobs related with international market. Exchange rate becomes more and
more vital in daily life and is being aware as an investment approach. Hence, it is
considered as a factor of gold consumption.
Nevertheless, this factor is not contained in the regression as there is inter-dependence
between forex value and exchange rate.
3) Real estate sale price
26
In China, property acquisition is another fairly typical type of investment. Many people
made significant incomes by purchasing properties and then selling them during this
cycle as housing prices rose in 2008. By purchasing properties that might increase in
value or be demolished, many people also enrich themselves. However, having one's
own property is seen as extremely important in traditional Chinese philosophy, and many
young people have made buying property one of their life goals. The price of real estate
will therefore have an impact on the demand for real estate and alter people's
consumption and demand for gold investments.
Hence, as we are examining the factors of gold consumption in China, real estate sale
price should be included in the regression. But due to the lack of purchasing power
assurance, to be more accurate and specific, this factor is not taken into the regression.
4) Oil price
As previously mentioned, there is correlation between oil price and gold price. The gold
price is a significant influence factor of gold consumption as people's preference is likely
to change with price.
However, if we use the oil price as a factor, we need to assure that the purchasing power
parity has to be constant but it is not held in our data. Hence, for the regression part, oil
price will not be involved but still be considered as a factor.
5) Interest rate
The basic investment approach is to store money in the bank. As more and more Chinese
become aware of gold as investment, the gold consumption is likely to be influenced by
27
profit gained from bank saving. As interest rate represents cost of borrowing and return
for saving, it directly relates with the choose of investment approach.
As there is inter-dependence between interest rate and inflation rate to some extent. To
avoid the miscalculation of exact influence of interest rate on gold consumption, this
indicator is not taken into the regression though we consider it is influential.
6) Forex reserve
As it has been clearly analyzed why forex reserve would affect gold price, gold
consumption is possibly to be influenced.
However, this value will not be taken into account during the regression part but still
play a vital role in affecting gold consumption as investment.
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Conclusion
Through the analysis and approve by regression, the specific characters of gold assist
it become an outstanding investment approach and government spending to GDP,
GDP growth rate, exchange rate and inflation rate are four factors have significant
impact on gold consumption and gold jewellery consumption in China as a whole.
29
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