MONEY, EMPLOYMENT & GROWTH Topic 1 – Review of Key Concepts; The Australian and Global Economies Dr. Raymond Li Raymond.Li@Canberra.edu.au Week Topic 1 Introduction: Basic Economics Concepts 2 Measuring an Economy's Output 3 The Simple Keynesian Model 4 The Simple Keynesian Model 5 Fiscal Policy 6 The AD-AS Model 7 The AD-AS Model 8 CLASS FREE 9 ***** Economic Theory and Practice Assessment ***** 10 Economic Growth 11 Money and Banking 12 Monetary Policy 13 The Unemployment Inflation Trade-off Teaching Staff Dr. Raymond Li Email: raymond.li@canberra.edu.au Office: 11C16 Phone: 62015211 Resources Lecture slides Tutorial questions Bolt on module on quantitative skills Textbook: https://www.pearson.com.au/products/Parkin-MichaelBade-Robin/Macroeconomics-Australia-in-the-GlobalEnvironment/9781488625596?R=9781488625596 Class Arrangements Lecture: F2F + Virtual Room Tutorial: 14:30-15:30: F2F only 15:30-16:30: F2F only 17:30-18:30: F2F + Virtual Room 1.1 DEFINITION AND QUESTIONS What is Economics Economics is the science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses • “ENDS” - Society’s needs and wants (assumed to be unlimited) • “MEANS” - Society’s resources of land, labour, capital goods, etc 1.1 DEFINITION AND QUESTIONS Why Study Economics? • Helps you understand the world in which we live • Improves decision making • Know the potential and limits of economic policy • Lets you avoid being deceived by economists (Joan Robinson) 1.1 DEFINITION AND QUESTIONS Macroeconomics concerned with aggregative concepts: • Total consumption spending by all consumers • Total investment spending by all firms • Total output / level of economic activity • The overall price level Macroeconomics is the summation of micro activity, but: • Focus is often on different aspects of same variable • Beware of the fallacy of composition 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING Economics as a Social Science Economists try to understand and predict the effects of economic forces by using the scientific method first developed by physicists. 1. Observation and Question An economist begins with a question or a puzzle about cause and effect arising from some observed facts. 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING 2. Economic Models An economic model is a description of some feature of the economic world that includes only those features assumed necessary to explain the observed facts • Abstraction • Deduction • Prediction Economics often uses the language of mathematics • The amount of apples bought depends on the price of apples • QDA = f (PA) 11 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING From Reality to Theory • The real world is too complex to deal with • Simplification by assumptions • The reality is divided into two parts: – Included (being considered by the theory) – Excluded (being “assumed away”) • The boundary is flexible • The differences in the determination of the boundary give rise to different schools of thought in Economics 12 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING From Theory to Reality • Theories and models are used to explain and predict events in the real world • “Applications” • Theories and models cannot be applied directly to the real world without qualifications (conditions) – The effect of the excluded factors? – Other things being equal? 13 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING Essentials of a Model • Exogenous and endogenous variables • A set of relationships between the variables • Equilibrium – State of rest vs Market-clearing – General vs Partial • Equilibrium solutions available • Comparative statics 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING 3. Check Models Against Facts Natural experiments: A situation that arises in the ordinary course of economic life in which the one factor of interest is different and other things are equal. A statistical investigation looks for a correlation. • Correlation is the tendency for the values of two variables to move together in a predictable and related way. An economic experiment puts people in a decisionmaking situation and varies the influence of one factor at a time to discover how they respond. 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING Disagreement: Normative versus Positive Economists sometimes disagree about assumptions and models and also about what policy to use. Some disagreements can be settled by appealing to further facts, but others cannot. Disagreements that can’t be settled by facts are normative statements—statements about what ought to be. Disagreements that can be settled by facts are positive statements—statements about what is. 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING Normative or Positive? “Tax rates for individuals with high income should be made higher than those for individuals with low income since higher income individuals can afford to pay more” “An increase in the minimum wage will cause a decrease in employment among the least skilled.” “Higher federal budget deficits will cause interest rates to increase.” 1.2 THE ECONOMIC WAY OF THINKING Economics as Policy Tool Economics provides a way of approaching problems in all aspects of our lives: • Personal • Business • Government 1.3 WHAT, HOW and FOR WHOM? What Do We Produce? We divide the vast array of goods and services produced into: Consumption goods and services - goods and services that are bought by individuals and used to provide personal enjoyment and contribute to a person’s standard of living. Capital goods - goods that are bought by businesses to increase their productive resources. 1.3 WHAT, HOW and FOR WHOM? Australian Industries (2022 Value Added, $bn) Mining Health care and social assistance Professional, scientific and technical services Financial and insurance services Construction Manufacturing Public administration and safety Education and training Transport, postal and warehousing Retail trade Wholesale trade Administrative and support services Rental, hiring and real estate services Agriculture, forestry and fishing Information media and telecommunications Electricity, gas, water and waste services Accommodation and food services Other services Arts and recreation services 0 Source: ABS (5206.0) 50 100 150 200 250 1.3 WHAT, HOW and FOR WHOM? How Do We Produce? Factors of production are the productive resources used to produce goods and services. Factors of production are grouped into four categories: • Land • Labour • Capital • Entrepreneurship 1.3 WHAT, HOW and FOR WHOM? Land Land includes all the “gifts of nature” that we use to produce goods and services. Land includes all the things we call natural resources. Land includes minerals, water, air, wild plants, animals, birds and fish as well as farmland and forests. 1.3 WHAT, HOW, AND FOR WHOM? Labour Labour is the work time and work effort that people devote to producing goods and services. The quality of labour depends on how skilled people are—what economists call human capital. Human capital is the knowledge and skill that people obtain from education, on-the-job training, and work experience. 1.3 WHAT, HOW, AND FOR WHOM? 1.3 WHAT, HOW, AND FOR WHOM? 1.3 WHAT, HOW, AND FOR WHOM? Capital Capital consists of tools, instruments, machines, buildings, and other items that have been produced in the past and that businesses now use to produce goods and services. Capital includes, office buildings, equipment, and so on. Capital does not include money, stocks, and bonds. They are financial resources. 1.3 WHAT, HOW, AND FOR WHOM? Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship is the human resource that organizes labour, land and capital. Entrepreneurs come up with new ideas about what and how to produce, make business decisions and bear the risks that arise from these decisions. 1.3 WHAT, HOW and FOR WHOM? For Whom Do We Produce? In market economies, it depends on the income of people Factors of production are paid incomes: Rent - Income paid for the use of land. Wages - Income paid for the services of labour. Interest - Income paid for the use of capital. Profit - Income earned by an entrepreneur for running a business. 1.3 WHAT, HOW and FOR WHOM? Functional distribution of income is the distribution of income among the factors of production. Personal distribution of income is the distribution of income among households. 1.4 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The People Australia’s population (2022): 25,978,935 World population (2022): 7,951,149,546 The Economies Advanced Economies – the most developed economies in the world (GDP; industrialization; infrastructure; HDI). Emerging and Developing Economies – those who are catching up and becoming more engaged with the global economy. 1.4 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY What in the Global Economy? 2019 World output ≈ US$80 trillion 1.4 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Some Differences in What Is Produced Developing economies have large and growing manufacturing industries, which produce textiles, footwear, sports gear, toys, electronic goods, furniture, steel and even cars and aeroplanes. Food production is a small part of the advanced economies and a large part of the developing economies such as Brazil, China and India. But the advanced economies produce about one-third of the world’s food. 1.4 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Some Similarities in What Is Produced Retail industries in advanced economies are similar, but so are the structure of what they produce. Agriculture and manufacturing are smaller percentages of total production and are shrinking whereas services are a larger percentage and growing. 1.4 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY How in the Global Economy? Human Capital Differences The quality of labour depends on human capital. The differences in human capital between the advanced economies and the developing economies is enormous and it arises from: • Education, on-the-job training and experience • Physical ability and state of health 1.4 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Physical Capital Differences The physical capital available for producing goods and services differentiates an advanced economy from a developing economy: • Transportation system—advanced economies are more developed • Technologies used on farms and in factories— advanced economies use more capital-intensive technologies 1.4 THE2.3 GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ECONOMY PERFORMANCE For Whom in the Global Economy? Who gets the world’s goods and services depends on the incomes that people earn. 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Production Possibilities Frontier The boundary between the combinations of goods and services that can be produced and the combinations that cannot be produced, given the available factors of production and the state of technology. The PPF puts three features of production possibilities in sharp focus: • Attainable and unattainable combinations • Efficient and inefficient production • Tradeoffs and free lunches 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES This figure shows the PPF for mobile phones and DVDs. Each point on the graph represents a column of the table. The line through the points is the PPF. 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Attainable and Unattainable Combinations Because the PPF shows the limits to production, it separates attainable combinations from unattainable ones. 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Efficient and Inefficient Production Production efficiency is attained when we cannot produce more of one good or service without producing less of something else. 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Tradeoffs and Free Lunches A tradeoff is an exchange - giving up one thing to get something else. A free lunch is a gift getting something without giving up something else. 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Economic growth is the sustained expansion of production possibilities. An economy grows when it develops better technology, improves the quality of labour, or increases the quantity of capital. When an economy’s resources increase, its production possibilities expand and its PPF shifts outward. 1.5 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES