KSA Market Overview July 2023 PLANNING FOR A BETTER FUTURE www.curriebrown.com AS GIGA PROJECTS GAIN MOMENTUM THE DEMAND FOR LABOUR INCREASES Welcome to the latest Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) construction market report that forecasts the impact of current market trends and looks at the opportunities and challenges aligned with the Kingdom’s 2030 vision. The vision is one of the world’s largest and ambitious programs, which has been designed to stimulate and diversify the Kingdom’s economy and appeal to global visitors. With $1.2 trillion worth of projects, either underway or in the pipeline, the demand for products, materials and labour continues to increase. The remote locations of some of the giga projects, such as NEOM, add further challenges such as logistics, supply chain and access to materials and labour, which could cause significant delays and increased cost. Scarcity elevates cost, and with labour typically accounting for 40% of project costs, any uplift in this area will have a serious impact on overall budgets and project viabilities. This report offers guidance to clients looking to avoid this scenario. It explores the importance of robust project management, procurement strategies and continuous, close control of cost and risk, and the need for professionals to embrace modern methods of construction and technology to deliver time and resource efficiencies. It also discusses the need for a collaborative effort on training from players across the construction industry. These measures will be critical in realising better built environments that deliver real value for all. James Irvine Senior Director – KSA Country Manager james.irvine@curriebrown.com www.curriebrown.com TRENDS Trends Project market drivers​ As KSA looks to become more attractive as a place to live, visit, work, • Vision 2030 strategic objectives include invest and do business, there is an increase in demand from every sector. As Vision 2030 gains pace and developments open up to residents in country, as well as vistors, KSA’s ambition and commitment will gain widespread attention across the world. Increasing internal, religous and international tourism in line with growing and more varied hospitality offerings and destinations. - Ambitious nation: enhanced government effectiveness and enable social responsibility. Key KSA statistics Population 35m (IMF) - Thriving economy: grow and diversify the economy and increase employment. - Vibrant society: strengthen Islamic and national identity and offering a fulfilling and healthy life. • Population growth - The KSA’s growing populace will require a swathe of Population growth 38m (IMF) by 2027 new housing stock across the country to meet the anticipated population expansion over the coming years. • Creation of new economic sectors which can be the source of employment • As KSA undertakes diversification away from oil and gas they continue to increase other means of economic stability. www.curriebrown.com BUILDING ASSET COSTS Building cost Building type Riyadh USD / m2 Low High Hotel Budget 1,650 2,050 Mid-market 2,150 2,600 Up-market 2,700 3,350 Resort 3,150 4,150 Low-rise office (shell & core) 1,300 1,650 Mid-rise office (shell & core) 1,500 1,950 High-rise office (shell & core) 1,900 2,500 Fit out-basic 1,000 1,600 Fit out-medium 1,600 1,950 Fit out-high 1,950 2,750 Low-rise 1,200 1,500 Medium-rise 1,450 1,800 High-rise 1,750 2,250 Villas 1,100 3,200 Community 1,450 1,950 Regional mall 1,350 1,900 Large regional mall 2,150 2,700 Primary, secondary, academy 1,350 1,750 Exchange rate to 1 US$ SAR 3.75 Commercial Residential Retail There is a threat that the cost of projects will grow significantly due to the rising cost of materials and the shortage of labour and supply-chain. Alternative construction methodologies such as modular pre-fabrication should be considered to help fast-track developments. James Irvine Senior Director - KSA Country Manager Schools www.curriebrown.com GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES Managing Client expectations around inflation contingencies will be critical to project viability and development models as demand begins to outstrip supply. World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet) Quarterly Averages Commodity Unit Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 Energy Coal, Australia ** $/mt 243.6 352.3 413.3 370.4 237.6 Coal, South Africa ** $/mt 219.8 291.1 259.6 191.8 151.2 Crude oil, average $/bbl 96.6 110.1 96.4 85.3 79.0 Crude oil, Brent $/bbl 99.0 112.7 99.2 88.4 81.4 Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl 96.5 108.9 98.3 84.6 79.6 Crude oil, WTI $/bbl 94.5 108.7 91.8 82.9 76.1 Natural gas, Index 2010=100 221.8 251.8 396.8 255.9 125.1 Natural gas, Europe ** $/mmbtu 32.63 31.64 60.16 36.93 16.84 Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu 4.62 7.45 7.93 5.47 2.65 Liquefied natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu 15.60 16.17 21.28 20.67 18.87 As demand begins to outstrip supply and inflation starts to bite, contingency plans are critical to project viability. James Irvine Senior Director – KSA Country Manager www.curriebrown.com WORLD BANK COMMODITIES PRICE DATA (THE PINK SHEET) World Bank Commodities Price Data Quarterly Averages Commodity Unit Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 Timber Logs, Africa $/cum 393.0 373.1 352.6 357.1 375.6 Logs, S.E. Asia $/cum Plywood ¢/sheets 256.2 229.7 215.4 210.7 224.9 469.8 421.3 395.1 386.5 412.6 Sawnwood, Africa $/cum 643.2 602.6 564.0 562.2 582.1 Sawnwood, S.E. Asia $/cum b/ 731.6 685.5 641.5 639.4 662.1 Cotton $/kg b/ 3.02 3.48 2.74 2.22 2.17 Rubber, RSS3 $/kg Rubber, TSR20 ** $/kg b/ 2.07 2.06 1.62 1.49 1.61 1.77 1.65 1.45 1.30 1.39 Aluminum $/mt Copper $/mt b/ 3,250 2,879 2,355 2,336 2,405 b/ 9,985 9,521 7,758 8,025 8,944 Iron ore Lead $/dmt b/ 142.5 137.7 105.7 99.2 126.1 $/mt b/ 2,325 2,196 1,976 2,105 2,137 Nickel $/mt b/ 26,765 28,951 22,104 25,514 26,070 Tin $/mt b/ 43,242 36,773 23,722 21,604 26,339 Zinc $/mt b/ 3,237 3,914 3,273 3,012 3,137 b/ Other Raw Materials Metals and Minerals Source: World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet) May 2023 https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/ doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/ related/CMO-Pink-Sheet-May-2023.pdf www.curriebrown.com KSA COMMODITY PRICES Cost information on commodity prices as of 30 April 2023. Prices quoted in US$ and SAR. % Diff. from prev. mo. Feb-23 Item/Company $ SAR % Diff. from prev. mo. Mar-23 $ SAR % Diff. from prev. mo. Apr-23 $ SAR Concrete (C40) Supplier A Supply rate per m³ 68.00 255 -25.10% 68.00 255 0.00% 68.00 255 0.00% Supplier B Supply rate per m³ 74.67 280 -5.36% 74.67 280 0.00% 74.67 280 0.00% Supplier C Supply rate per m³ 74.67 280 -6.43% 74.67 280 0.00% 74.67 280 0.00% Supplier D Supply rate per m³ 74.67 280 1.79% 74.67 280 0.00% 74.67 280 0.00% 73 274 -8.40% 73 274 0.00% 73 274 0.00% 0.00% Average Steel Reinforcement Supplier A Supply rate per ton 760 2,850 0.00% 760 2,850 0.00% 760 2,850 Supplier B Supply rate per ton 720 2,700 -14.81% 720 2,700 0.00% 720 2,700 0.00% Supplier C Supply rate per ton 693 2,600 100.00% Average 740 2,775 -7.21% 740 2,775 0.00% 724 2,717 -2.15% Supplier A Supply rate per bag 3.87 Supplier B Supply rate per bag 3.47 14.50 0.00% 3.87 14.50 0.00% 3.87 14.50 0.00% 13.00 -15.38% 3.47 13.00 0.00% 3.47 13.00 Supplier C Supply rate per bag 4.00 0.00% 15.00 0.00% 4.00 15.00 0.00% 4.00 15.00 Supplier D Supply rate per bag 0.00% 3.60 13.50 -4.94% Cement Average 3.78 14.17 -4.71% 3.78 14.17 0.00% 3.73 14.00 -1.19% Supply rate per litre 0.27 1.00 21.00% 0.29 1.10 9.09% 0.29 1.10 0.00% Early engagement and planning is essential to help clients deliver key development on time and in budget. Our expertise and intervention can reduce risk and increase a greater return for clients. James Irvine Senior Director – KSA Country Manager Diesel Fuel Supplier A www.curriebrown.com UNIT RATES Item Unit $ AED Unit $ AED Concrete blinding, C15 m3 658 175 Gypsum board ceilings m2 265 71 Concrete, C40 m3 454 121 Suspended ceiling system m2 316 84 Concrete, C60 m3 499 133 UPVC drainage pipe, 80mm dia Lm 102 27 Shuttering m2 122 33 UPVC drainage pipe, 110mm dia Lm 187 50 Reinforcing bars Kg 4 1 HDPE rainwater/waste pipe, 80mm Lm 88 23 Reinforcing mesh m2 51 14 HDPE rainwater/waste pipe, 110mm Lm 97 26 Tonne 18,556 4,948 Polybutylene water pipe, 15mm dia Lm 30 8 Metal deck m2 2,816 751 Polybutylene water pipe, 25mm dia Lm 45 12 Waterproofing m2 111 30 Polybutylene water pipe, 75mm dia Lm 130 35 Roof insulation m2 95 25 Copper pipe, 54mm dia Lm 131 35 Blockwork, solid, 100mm thick m2 156 42 Copper pipe, 76mm dia Lm 184 49 Blockwork, solid, 200mm thick m2 186 50 Copper pipe, 108mm dia Lm 262 70 Blockwork, hollow, 100mm thick m2 120 32 Black steel, chilled water pipe, 20mm dia Lm 8 2 Blockwork, hollow, 200mm thick m2 180 48 Black steel, chilled water pipe, 50mm dia Lm 28 7 Lightweight partitions, gypsum board/timber studs, 100mm thick m2 234 62 Black steel, chilled water pipe, 65mm dia Lm 42 11 Lightweight partitions, gypsum board/timber studs, 150mm thick m2 265 71 Carbon steel chilled water pipe, 40mm dia Lm 310 83 Lightweight partitions, gypsum board/timber studs, 200mm thick m2 314 84 Carbon steel chilled water pipe, 65mm dia Lm 394 105 Glazed partitions m2 2,391 638 Carbon steel chilled water pipe, 80mm dia Lm 454 121 Aluminium/glazing, stick system m2 2,909 776 Ductwork, gauge 22 kg 20 5 Aluminium/glazing, unitised m2 3,491 931 Ductwork, gauge 26 kg 25 7 Aluminium louvers m2 906 242 Cable, 2x4C 240mm2 XLPE/LSF/SWA/Cu + 2x1C 120mm2 LSF/Cu G/Y Lm 760 203 Aluminium mashrabiya m2 3,400 907 Cable, 4C 240mm2 XLPE/LSF/SWA/Cu + 1C 120mm2 LSF/Cu G/Y Lm 380 101 Standing seam roof system m2 1,500 400 Cable, 2C 16mm2 XLPE/LSF/SWA/Cu + 1C 16mm2 LSF/Cu G/Y Lm 16 4 EIFS cladding system m2 550 147 Cable (fire rated), 3x4C 240mm2 XLPE/LSF/SWA/Cu + 3x1C 120mm2 LSF/Cu G/Y Lm 1,200 320 Plaster finish m2 61 16 Cable (fire rated), 2x4C 240mm2 XLPE/LSF/SWA/Cu + 2x1C 120mm2 LSF/Cu G/Y Lm 800 213 Paint finish m2 86 23 Cable (fire rated), 4C 240mm2 XLPE/LSF/SWA/Cu + 1C 120mm2 LSF/Cu G/Y Lm 400 107 Sand/cement screeds m2 68 18 External wall insulation m2 111 30 External wall waterproofing m2 111 30 Epoxy coatings m2 132 35 Structural steel Item Exchange rate to 1 US$ Reducing carbon emissions can be achieved through careful consideration of the whole life project, through multi disciplinary teams armed with sophisticated tools to measure and manage decarbonisation projects. SAR 3.75 James Irvine Senior Director - KSA Country Manager www.curriebrown.com TPI AND CONSTRUCTION INFLATION While tender price inflation (TPI) is yet to experience a substantial rise, given the ambitions of Vision 2030 we could anticipate a further increase, with the large number of giga and mega-projects due to reach peak during years 2024 – 2027. With much-anticipated projects yet to reach peak demand for labour and material, major contract awards – which ultimately drive TPI – have been scarce as many schemes remain in the enabling works stage, if not delayed in feasibility and planning activities. While there is an abundance of construction activity ongoing throughout the country, as it stands the Kingdom’s contracting market is largely meeting demand. www.curriebrown.com HERE’S OUR THREE STEP GUIDE TO MAKING SURE YOU DELIVER PROJECTS ON TIME AND IN BUDGET Plan early, think differently Accelerate use of tech innovation to drive sustainability Pro-Active measures to meet the Kingdom’s ambitions • Involve experts at an early stage to develop robust time and cost •S ustainability is critical, harness new technology and innovation to The volume of projects to be awarded will likely suppress competition forecasts for the entire project. Well informed early decision-making reduce carbon and improve efficiencies. Carbon reductions help make given the surplus of options in the market, therefore innovative, about feasibility will create efficiencies in both time and budget, which projects more attractive to investment and ensures they are more unconventional, and flexible procurement methods will be required to will ultimately have a huge impact on successful delivery and return on likely to be prioritised. Building in sustainability from the very start and ensure capable contractors and consultants remain motivated to tender. investment. making use of new technologies will make the project more both viable • Earlier, multi-project procurement planning will ensure more robust, cost-effective supply chains and use of skills and labour across the and influential. • Incorporation of Lifecycle Costing principles and procedures at the entire project. Bringing together different projects will not only ensure outset of the design process will encourage the uptake and use greater economies of scale, but systematically improve the resource of of modern methods of construction and technologies which will in materials and labour. turn provide better development viability in reduced operational & Harnessing local talent and providing training, incentivisation and mentoring throughout their career will be a key aspect to sustaining long term business plans. maintenance liabilities, increasing longer term investment returns and drive best value. www.curriebrown.com CONTACT US Contact our experts for more information James Irvine Daniel King Norman Smith James McCombe Mike Moore Jonathan Hall Senior Director – Director – Cost Management Director - KSA Project Director - Director - Facilities Director - KSA Lead Lead KSA Management Services Lead Cost Management Management Services Lead Project Management james.irvine@curriebrown.com daniel.king@curriebrown.com norman.smith@curriebrown.com james.mccombe@curriebrown.com mike.moore@curriebrown.com jonathan.hall@curriebrown.com OFFICE ADDRESSES Verdun Building – Unit 215 Office 305-306, 3rd Floor 7775 King Fahd Road Al Olaya District PO Box 12212 Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Tel: +966 11 455 0533 Currie & Brown is a world-leading provider of cost management, project management and advisory services, covering the full range of public and private sectors. Our purpose is to add value that makes building a better future possible. We help clients navigate volatility and unpredictability, providing the certainty that enables better, more sustainable built environments for all. Our services reflect the complexity of physical assets’ uses and integrated lifecycles, addressing every aspect, from concept, design and construction, to the assessment of best-value options for ongoing use, maintenance, operation and eventually deconstruction. With principal offices in London, Dubai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, New York and Shanghai, we operate across 69 offices throughout the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, India and the Middle East. Currie & Brown has been a Dar Group company since 2012. www.curriebrown.com LOCATION INTELLIGENCE Our comparative cost indices review current material and labour prices in Saudi Arabia.We base this index on market saturation, labour rates, commodity pricing and current economic conditions. REPORT METHODOLOGY Disclaimer: These are indicative building costs that will change depending upon scale, design, specification, procurement route, contract route, inflation and other factors. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as legal, financial or professional advice. The user should not rely on the information provided as a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified professional. The user bears sole responsibility for their own actions and decisions based on the information provided. We shall not be liable for any damages or losses resulting from the use of the information provided herein. www.curriebrown.com