The Case Interview Process Non-Verbal Communication (Tips for Success) Communicating the correct message non-verbally is as important as the content that is communicated in a case interview. In order to recommend a candidate, interviewers must: 1. Feel comfortable putting the candidate in front of a client 2. Believe they would enjoy spending 60+ hours a week with the candidate on a project team You Need to Convey • Trustworthiness • Confidence • Competence • Honesty • Positivity • Curiosity • Passion How to Develop These Traits • Practice and gain proficiency in the technical requirements of a case – free up mental energy to focus on connecting with the interviewer • Practice positive self-talk – the best way to demonstrate these traits is to truly believe you have them • Practice quickly connecting with people about non-work subjects – building rapport before diving into the interview makes an enormous difference (Note: Not always possible) 5 What Is A Case Interview? A case interview is a simplified, condensed version of a complete consulting project. The candidate is in the driver’s seat and is expected to explore the data and provide solutions to an issue that a client paid the firm for. Ideal Candidates Demonstrate Problem-solving Ability Interpersonal Skills Cultural Fit & Passion From Bain’s Website (but representative of all firms): The case interview is an example of a real business problem based on your interviewer's past work experiences. The problems you will encounter are not designed to be brainteasers, or theoretical problems designed to stump you, but rather to reflect the challenges that our clients face. These real-life examples allow you to learn more about the type of work we do and the impact we have with our clients. The firms look for: • The approach you take to solving a problem • How analytical and creative your thinking is • Your usage of data to quantify your recommendation(s) • Your communication skills in conveying your ideas • How you would suggest implementing those proposals" 6 Consulting Case Themes The following case themes are the most popular topics tested and they are ranked in descending order of frequency. Please note that there are plenty more case topics than the 5 listed below. Profitability: Analyze potential sources of profit declines and identify ways to improve profitability Market Entry / Market Sizing: Analyze the client’s opportunity to expand and quantify the viable market for any new products Growth: Identify opportunities for the client to optimally grow revenues or increase market share Acquisition / Sale: Determine whether the client should purchase another business or sell an existing part of the company Industry Assessment: Assess the health and attractiveness of a particular industry to advise a client’s decision 7 Note: This not an exhaustive list of all the types of cases you may experience Case Interview Format Intro Fit Question Case Interview 3-5 Mins 5 Mins 20-30 Mins Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Prompt: This is the premise of the case. It will include some background on who the client is and lay out the problem. Framework: Once you are confident that you understand the prompt and context, you will take roughly 90 seconds to lay out a "roadmap" for how to approach the case. See the section on "Case Frameworks" for more tips. Clarifying Questions: Some basic contextual questions to guide your framework; not a time to get into the nitty gritty Exhibits & Analysis Exhibits: Provide important insights and next steps in cracking a case. You should walk through each exhibit with the interviewer, confirming understanding of its content and identifying relevant patterns or insights. Math: See the section on "Math" for more tips. Q&A 5 Mins Brainstorming Brainstorming: After the initial analysis, the interviewer will often ask you to brainstorm around additional aspects of the problem. See the section on "Brainstorming" for more tips. Conclusion/ Next Steps Conclusion: Recap (briefly!) the initial problem, present the logical conclusions and solutions that arose from analysis and brainstorming (along with the data to support them.) Next Steps: Suggest some next steps for implementation or further research and point out any potential risks 8 Note: This format may differ by firm or by interviewer Fit / Behavioral Question Overview Consulting firms are assessing your ability to successfully work with teams and judge how well you understand their firm and yourself • Tell Me About Yourself Why Firm X or Consulting Tell Me About A Time When… • • • • • • • • Your pitch should include: Where you have been / what you have done, who / where you are now, and what you are interested in going forward All answers must include: Relative skills & experiences, key transition points in your career, and a career objective Strong answers have: Powerful “hook” –your value proposition that highlights how you have the competencies they are recruiting for Firm & industry fit: Interviewee should have a deep understanding of a firm’s culture, functional expertise, and working style Industry interest: Interviewee should highlight experiences they want to gain and skills they can bring Strong answers have: This question answered in opening pitch, structured reasons why, and answers tailored to your prior experiences and future aspirations Experience/ behavioral: Interviewee should demonstrate leadership ability, “drive” –taking initiative, and professionalism CAR: Context / challenge you faced, the action that you demonstrated, and the result of your actions Strong answers have: Concise response, a learning element if the situation helped you grow, utilizes structure, and engages the interviewer with energy, emotion, and authenticity 9 The Prompt and Clarifying Questions Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis The Prompt Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps Clarifying Questions • All case prompts will introduce the company name, industry, and a brief description of what the client wants • Clarifying questions should always be high level (ex. Context on products, core goal of the client, how client makes money) • Some prompts tend to leave the primary objective to be vague • Don’t ask for detailed insights that you can include in framework (ex. Details on profitability drivers, market trends, etc ) • Most prompts leave out the business context of the clients core products or operations in question • Feel free to ask further clarifying questions as you are building framework 10 The Case Framework Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps By laying out a framework for analysis at the beginning of a case interview, you are not only keeping yourself organized, but you are providing a visual roadmap for the interviewer to see how you are thinking and where you are going. Characteristics of Great Frameworks Incorrect Framework Myths • MECE: Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive • There is one perfect framework for every case • Detailed but not lost in the weeds • There is a finite number of possible frameworks that will provide answers to every case • Frameworks are not that important to the overall interview • Thorough but not wasteful • Insightful but not presumptive 11 Framework Example Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Conclusion/ Next Steps Brain-storming Some frameworks are better than others to address a particular case. There are always multiple approaches that can yield the same answer. A simple framework example: Key Question in the Prompt Profitability Tree Market / External Customer / Company Notes + Clarifying Answers • • • • • Competitors Economic Health Regulation / Government Industry Trends Geography / Climate • • • • Internal Capabilities • Acquisitions • Manufacturing Capacity • Distribution Networks Brand Perception Exit Strategies Consumer Preferences 12 Other Framework Examples While being exposed to many frameworks can help build a strong repertoire of framework components, remember that no amount of specific framework memorization will cover every possible case a candidate could encounter. Before & After • • • Compare current with future Ideal for a go/no-go decision Can be used with profit tree (profits before and after) Before Evaluation Criterion 2 Evaluation Criterion… M&A (similar to Before and After) • Compare Company A, Company B, and Company A+B along various meaningful criteria After Evaluation Criterion 1 Company A Company B Company A + B Evaluation Criterion 1 Evaluation Criterion 2 Evaluation Criterion… Alternative | Evaluation Criteria Matrix) • • • Alternatives listed across the top Evaluation criteria listed along the left Use +, -, o, or check marks to go through the list Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4... Evaluation Criterion 1 + - - + Evaluation Criterion 2 -... Evaluation Criteria... 13 For more details on Framework, please see appendix xx Guide to Exhibits & Analysis Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Conclusion/ Next Steps Brain-storming Read The title of the exhibit to have a clear understanding of the information Observe The legend and gauge the sizes of any bar graphs for insights Pay Attention To the footnotes for vital information 14 Guide to Math Analysis Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps Although most case mathematics will involve simple arithmetic, it is still very easy to make mistakes. Follow the tips below to ensure that you are set up for success. Tips for Success Sanity Check Mistakes are OK Use Shortcuts Make sure your numbers make sense in the context of the case You can recover from mistakes, just don’t make the same mistake twice Round when needed and manage your zero’s appropriately Talk it Through Explain each step that you are doing with your interviewer So What Tie the numbers back to the question and explain the implications Practice practice until you’re comfortable doing math in front of an interviewer 15 Guide to Math Analysis Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps Tricky Math Examples Net Present Value Payback Period Break-even Sales A. Calculates the discounted return on investment over time A. Calculates the amount of time required to pay back an upfront investment A. Calculates the number of units sold to pay back an upfront investment B. Requires cash flows (revenues - costs over a time period), discount rate, timeframe, and an upfront cost B. Requires cash flows per period and an upfront cost B. Requires per-unit selling price, per-unit costs, and upfront investment cost C. Some cases will assume a calculation into perpetuity (timeframe = forever). Payback period will be extremely long, extremely short, or you will be given some type of specific criterion the client uses (e.g. 5 years) C. C. Break-Even Sales = Upfront Investment Cost/(Per-Unit Selling Price - Per-Unit Costs) D. Perpetuity: (Cash Flow per Period / Discount Rate) - Upfront Cost D. Payback Period = Upfront Cost / Cash Flows per Period 16 Guide to Math Analysis (Things to Take Note) Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps Example Scenario How much money will the client save? Current State $ Mater. / Unit # Labor / Unit Volume Total Cost Product 1 15 10 1M = $25M Product 2 5 20 2M = $50M = $75M 10% Labor Reduction on a per unit basis Future State $ Mater. / Unit # Labor / Unit Volume Total Cost Product 1 15 9 1M = $24M Product 2 5 18 2M = $46M = $70M A. Structure is crucial. The more you can structure information like an Excel Spreadsheet, the better I. Helps you recover information II. Your interviewer can follow along III. It makes you look organized B. Write down prompts such as “How much money will the client save” and “10% labor reduction per unit” to keep the goal fresh in your mind C. Circle any important numbers (Total Savings =$5M) that may be relevant to your final recommendation D. Go Deeper by speaking to the context of the number, ex: “ I see the total savings is $5M, which represents about 6% of our total costs. This seems like a reasonable deduction but we should figure out how this labor reduction is being generated and seek to understand any negative unanticipated consequences as a result of it.” Total Savings = $5M 17 Tips For Brainstorming Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps The key to brainstorming is structure. The candidate should first devise two or more "buckets" or categories to organize his/her thoughts. These constraints make it easier to be creative and provide a more vivid mental model to pull from. Example Brainstorming Frameworks: Internal vs. External The Supply Chain • • • Internal represents any aspect internal to the client, (e.g. products, brand, financials, leadership, etc.) External represents factors external to the client, (e.g. market trends, geopolitical dynamic, competition, etc.) • Each step in the supply chain is a category: raw materials, manufacturing, warehouse, transport, retail, customer, etc. Useful for exploring causes or solutions to cost problems Financial vs. Non-Financial Stakeholders • • • • Financial includes things like costs, hurdle rates, cash flow, etc. Non-financial would be everything else Clients, employees, investors, suppliers, regulators, etc. How are they affected, or what are they looking for? Long-term vs. Short-term Customer Journey • • • Useful for examining potential consequences of a decision AIDA – Attention, Interest, Desire, Action Useful for increasing sales 18 Conclusion & Next Steps Prompt & Clarifying Q. Framework Exhibits & Analysis Brain-storming Conclusion/ Next Steps There are three key elements that the interviewer should include while wrapping up the final portion of the case. 1. Recommendation Say the action that the client should take and cite the key insights in your analysis that have led you to the conclusion 2. Risks & Concerns 3. Next Steps Mention the factors in the case that the client should be aware of that may impact the client or the recommendation –(Concerns should not contradict your overall recommendation) Highlight at least one action the client should do to either help mitigate any concerns or any actions needed to move forward with the recommendation While you can take a minute before you gather your recommendation, it is crucial to keep this segment concise 19 Industry Overviews Please note that these are commonly tested industries; This list is not exhaustive of all the industries tested. Industry Overview – Consumer / Retail Key Industry Trends • • • • • Important Calculations Digital Marketing: CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) companies are pivoting to digital marketing solutions like Facebook and YouTube more than ever for smarter and more targeted advertising. Big Data: Consumer companies & retailers are ramping up the use of consumer shopping behavior data now more than ever to create curated/ personalized shopping experiences and targeted advertisements Retail Omnichannel: Large brick & Mortar retailers are pivoting to an “order online, pick-up in store” mix while also building out their online fulfillment capabilities to cater to the consumer. and keep up with Amazon). Store foot-prints are also getting smaller to reduce inventory Private Label & Amazon Effect: Private label consumer products are eroding market share of large name brand products. This is partially driven by “the Amazon effect” of quick and cheap replacement fulfillments. -Brand loyalty is getting harder and harder to win. Direct to Consumer vs. In-store Experience: Brand names are slowly shifting resources to sell directly to consumers as some retailers struggle. Retailers with large brick & mortar footprints are focusing on instore experiences to attract customers 1. Inventory Turnover: = (Sales / Inventory) 2. Gross Margin: = (Revenues – COGS) Revenues Important Terminology • • • • • SKU: Stock Keeping Unit – Refers to a unique item sold in a store In-stock: Percent of items that are on the shelves and available for sale vs. what the total display can hold CRM: Customer Relationship Management: Strategy & tools designed to boost profitability and strengthen customer loyalty by using data – also the name for software that facilitates this Loss Leader: Merchandise sold at a loss to attract new customers or stimulate other profitable sales Mark-up: Percentage added to the cost of product to get selling price 3. Contribution Margin (CM): = (Sales – Variable Costs) CM Rate = (CM) (Sales) *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above 23 Industry Overview – Energy Key Industry Trends • • • • • Important Calculations Clean Renewable Energy: Wind, solar, and biomass power are increasingly replacing the use of fossil fuels in developed and developing countries with some projections indicating 80% of the worlds energy needs being met by renewable energy by 2050 Technology: Advancements in drilling techniques like “fracking” and horizontal drilling have significantly boosted the output of US oil companies and substantially reduced the cost and risks associated with drilling for oil Shale: Newly found abundance of shale basins in the USA has helped to boost US oil production output and has almost eliminated US dependence on foreign oil Natural Gas: Given its cheap and abundant supply, natural gas has become the primary source of energy in the US, replacing crude oil and coal (Important) Petroleum Products: Gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas, fertilizer, plastics, detergent, propane, diesel, lubricant 1. Return on Investment (ROI) = (Profits – Cost of Investment) Cost of Investment 2. Breakeven Point = ______(Fixed Costs)____ Contribution Margin (CM) Important Terminology • • • • Important Considerations: Upstream (E&P): Exploration and Production – Process involving the finding, drilling, and producing of crude oil and natural gas or liquified natural gas (LNG) Midstream: Focuses on the processing, storage, marketing, and transportation of oil and natural gas. (Most pipe-line companies fall in this category) Downstream: Includes oil refineries, petrochemical plants, petroleum products distributors, retail outlets and natural gas distribution companies OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries – Cartel of 14 nations that coordinate petroleum policies. –Often influences output and thus oil prices • • • • • • Transportation / Distribution costs Storage Costs Production Costs: Labor + Materials Plant Development Costs Depreciation & Taxes Overhead 24 *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above Industry Overview – Transportation Key Industry Trends • • • • • Important Calculations Airline Capacity Additions: Airline ticket prices have been steadily on the decline driven by companies adding more routes to cities across the globe –led by low-cost carriers such as JetBlue, Southwest Fuel Efficiency: Airline companies have been investing heavily in upgrading their fleet to more fuel efficient aircrafts to reduce their biggest cost driver EV (Electric Vehicles): Auto manufacturers are all racing to create battery powered vehicles Autonomous Vehicles: Autonomous vehicles are expected to hit the road as early as 2019 and will cause major disruption to auto manufacturers, bus systems, taxis, insurance companies Shortage of Truckers: Transportation companies have been struggling to keep up with the booming demand for cargo shipments due to a massive shortage of truck drivers –thus causing significant increases in labor costs 1. Potential Savings by Switching Equipment = {New Profit – Old Profit} or { [(New Capacity x Price) – (New efficiency x cost)] – [(Old Capacity x Price) – (Old efficiency x cost)]} Important Terminology • • • • • Load Factor: Measures the capacity utilization of transportation services and is equal to the average actual utilization divided by the maximum capacity PRASM: Passenger Revenue per Average Seat Mile –Or RASM (revenue) is the revenue generated per available set miles in which ASM = number of seats available x number of miles flown. Logistics: The detailed coordination of complex operations involving many people, facilities, or supplies. FOB: Free On Board –Represents the point at which the sale of a freight cargo is considered complete. “FOB shipping” means ownership is transferred once the product is shipped of, “FOB shipping point” means ownership is transferred once the product is delivered LTL & FTL: LTL (Less than Load) – Small freight that doesn’t fill a truck which is generally more expensive to ship, (FTL) Full Truck Load) – Large shipments that fill a trailer and are thus cheaper to ship Important Considerations: • • • • • • Gasoline / Fuel Prices Carrying Capacity Range / Distance Destination Routes Maintenance Costs Depreciation *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above 25 Industry Overview – Manufacturing / Agriculture Key Industry Trends • • • • Important Calculations D2C: Direct to Consumer: More manufacturers are leveraging their own sales platform to market, sell, and ship their products to the customer rather than use third party distributers or retailers to boost profitability Data Driven Analytics: Manufacturers are using predictive analytics and algorithms to improve product design, optimize production cycles, and improve demand forecasting Trade-war & Tariffs: In response to the US tariff on steel and more, Canada, the European Union, and China have all implemented retaliatory tariffs of close to 25% on agricultural and automobile goods produced in the US. Sustainable Food Systems: Vertical farming has been a growing trend in urban locations to minimize environmental foot-prints and bring produce to major cities Important Terminology • • • • • (JIT) Just-in Time Inventory: “Pull demand” inventory system in which assembly materials and support items are delivered as needed to minimize raw material inventory Commodity: An interchangeable non-differentiated product or material that is sold freely. (Most agricultural products are commodities) Bottleneck: The resource in a manufacturing process that is working at max capacity and thus limits the output of the entire production Bushel: A unit of dry measure (1 cubic foot) for grain, fruit, etc., equivalent to 8 gallons of liquid Out-source: Process of contracting an outside party to complete a production or service task for a business. –Typically done to save cost or due to a lack of expertise 1. Potential Savings with New Equipment = (New Equip. Expenses – Old Equip. Expenses) [(Old Time x Old Labor) + (Raw Material Cost x Old Quantity) + Old Depreciation)] - [(New Time x New Labor) + (Raw Material Cost x New Quantity) + New Depreciation) Important Considerations: • • • • • • • Raw Material Costs Labor & Wages Capacity Constraints / Bottlenecks Commodity or Not? Overhead Costs Supplier & Buyer Relationships Depreciation 26 *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above Industry Overview – Financial Services Key Industry Trends • • • • Important Calculations AI, Block-Chain & Crypto Currencies: Digital distributed ledgers offer a cheaper and more efficient way for firms to verify and facilitate transactions. Crypto currencies have proven themselves to be an alternative set of asset investments that rival equities, precious metals, and debt holdings Digital-Only Banks & Payments: The prevalence of more digital transactions have eroded the need for cash for most daily use, which has in turn lead to the proliferation of online banks that offer higher savings account interest rates and comparable services Financial De-regulation: Congress passed legislation easing some of the restrictions from Dodd- Frank that exempts smaller banks from certain capital requirements which frees up room for more loans More Transparency in PE Funds: With greater pressure to produce results that outperform their benchmarks, more PE investors have been demanding greater transparency within their funds and firms have been using transparency to attract investors Important Terminology • • • AUM: Assets Under Management: Market value of all the financial assets that a firm manages on behalf of all of their clients and themselves. –Includes capital raised by investors and leaders of a firm Private Equity: Composed of investors and funds that invest directly into private companies or convert public companies to private companies to improve the target company’s operations and financials with the goal of extracting a financial return from the company and reselling it another firm or the public at a profit M&A: Mergers & Acquisition: Mergers are when two companies comes together to make a new entity (Dow Chemical & Dupont) = DowDuPont, while an acquisition is where the smaller company is consumed by the larger company (Amazon + Wholefoods) = Amazon 1. NPV (Net Present Value) = (CF) x ___1 ___ (1+i)n Where n = # of periods 2. Pay Back Period = _____(Fixed Costs)_______ Contribution Margin (CM) Important Considerations: • • • • • • • Current Portfolio Exit Strategy & Time Horizon Acquisition Price Employee & Customer Relationships Market Trends Tax & Regulatory Implications Client Risk Profile *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above 27 Industry Overview – Information Technology Key Industry Trends • • • • • Artificial Intelligence (AI)/ Machine Learning: Artificial intelligence is the ability for a computer program to think and learn. The emergence of AI has enabled the rise of self-driving cars, smart homes, advanced search algorithms, and smart digital assistants Cloud Computing: Is the practice of using a network of remote servers hosted on the Internet to store, manage, and process data, rather than a local server or a personal computer. More companies are moving to this platform for security, convenience, and cost savings Internet of Things (IOT): Smart devices that are all connected and communicate with each other via the internet are rising in demand due to value of strategic data that they provide Blockchain: a digital ledger in which transactions made and recorded chronologically and publicly. – Important for security and transfer verification purposes. Ex. include Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies GDPR: General Data Protection Regulation: Data protection regulation protecting privacy for all individuals in the European Union. Important Calculations 1. Addressable Market size: Top-Down: Total Population >>> Number of users >>> Market share >>> # of Units per User x Price per Unit Bottom-Up: Current Customer Population >>> Potential Customer Base (Estimated using consensus data or industry info) >>> Future user base x units per user x price Important Terminology • • • • IP (Intellectual Property): A category of property that includes intangible creations protected by trademarks and copyrights (e.g. software, code, algorithms, etc.) Unicorn: a start-up company valued at more than a billion dollars, typically in the software or technology sector Freemium: A pricing model used by many digital services, a “freemium” model is one where the majority of users are able to engage with a product or service entirely for free (perhaps in exchange for data collection or being served advertisements) SaaS: “Software as a service” - a software distribution model in which a third-party provider hosts applications and makes them available to customers over the Internet –Like Salesforce or Workday 2. Customer Acquisition Cost: _______Marketing Expenses_____ Newly Acquired Customers (Yearly) 28 *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above Industry Overview – Media & Entertainment Key Industry Trends • • • • • • Important Calculations Cord Cutting / Over the Top Streaming: The rise of Hulu, Netflix, YouTube, & Amazon Prime video has left many to abandon traditional cable and opt for online streaming services to get the content they want Content is King: Media giants have been spending heavily to curate high quality content to hook subscribers to their service and maintain and grow their subscriber base Ad-model Shift: Cable advertisement has been trending downward while digital online advertisements have been trending up. As online viewers opt for ad-blockers, AI and big data are helping marketing agencies personalize advertisements and increase user engagement Augmented Realty (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR): While still in their early stages, AR and VR capabilities have been gaining traction in the industry as a way to enhance storytelling and improve sporting coverage Music Streaming: The rise of Spotify, Apple Music, & YouTube Music has almost eliminated the physical disc music market as most artist now prioritize online platforms to release albums and new songs Gaming & E-Sports: The video gaming industry has been one of the fastest growing segments in entertainment led by mobile gaming and game streaming experiences via Twitch and E-sports. Many video game creators are focused on a “games as a service model” as they monetize video games overtime by selling in-game customizable perks 1. Profitability (Revenues – Costs) (Price x Quantity) – (Quantity x Var. Cost) – (Fixed Costs) Important Considerations: • Important Terminology • • • Digital vs. Linear: Linear is traditional broadcast or cable television. Digital is online (streaming, etc.) Ratings: A measure of viewers of a particular program or time segment in television. Nielsen is the largest provider of ratings data in the US, but has been slow to provide digital ratings Box-Office: The total revenue generated by movies shown at theaters • Revenue Factors • Advertising Rev. • Ticket sales (Price x Quantity) • Merchandising • Tours / licensing / Endorsements Cost Factors • Artist fees • Commission • Promotion advertising • Venues • Content creation costs 29 *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above Industry Overview – Healthcare & Life Sciences Key Industry Trends • • • • • • Important Calculations Wearable Medical Devices: Activity trackers help patients stay more active and healthier on their own while also monitoring health metrics reducing the need to visit doctors frequently Smart Technology & Data: Data on a patient’s background and conditions allow more personalization options, targeted treatments, and faster recommendations at hospitals Gene Therapy: The transplantation of normal genes into cells in place of missing or defective ones in order to correct genetic disorders. –Growing trend using CRISPR to treat previously uncurable diseases Price Transparency: As drug companies receive criticism on the rising cost of their drugs, more states are considering independent efforts to improve transparency in drug pricing and cost controls Government: With the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), legislation has stagnated on fixing the rising cost of healthcare and Medicaid in the US, thus leaving a continued rise in insurance premiums Bundled payment, episode-of-care payment, etc.: Generally describes paying for the whole treatment at once, rather than by individual tests or visits – an attempt to incentivize improved outcomes • • • • Top-Down: Total Population >>> Number with Illness >>> Number Diagnosed >>> Market share of Drug >>>> (Dosage per Time Frame) x Price per Dosage = Market Size per Time Frame Important Considerations: • Important Terminology • 1. Market sizing: Orphan Drug: A pharmaceutical drug that remains commercially undeveloped due limited potential for profitability as a result of a small curable population size FDA: “Food & Drug Administration” Federal organization tasked with protecting and promoting the safety of food and pharmaceuticals in the US. FDA approval is needed for almost all drugs sold in the US Generic Drugs: A prescription drug that has the same active-ingredient formula as a brand-name drug but sold at a cheaper cost. –Typically occurs when name branded drugs lose patents Biotech vs. Pharmaceutical: Biotech firms use live organisms like bacteria and enzymes to manufacture their medicines while pharmaceutical companies primarily use chemicals synthesis Auto-immune Diseases: A disease in which the body's immune system attacks healthy cells • • • • Regulations • FDA Approvals • Patent Rights • Foreign Government Laws Competition / Cannibalization Drug Effectiveness • Cure vs. Treatment • Time to Market • Side Effects Manufacturing Capabilities Pricing, Costs (Fixed / Var.), Dosage 30 *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above Industry Overview – Telecommunications Key Industry Trends • • • Important Calculations 5G Network Service: Next generation of mobile internet connectivity with faster speeds, more reliable connections, and 100x more bandwidth capacity than 4G. • Network operates mainly on the cloud • Allows for “network slicing:” Creates separate wireless networks on the cloud for users to have their own personalized network • Roll-out may be 2020 in North America due to high infrastructure costs associated with development Network Consolidation: The third and fourth largest cell phone carriers T-Mobile and Sprint are in the process of merging, a move that will consolidate the telecom market to 3 major players Content Integration: High profile acquisition like AT&T of Time Warner and Verizon of Yahoo illustrate a push to either get into the content creation game or to build out their advertising network 1. Return on Investment (ROI): (Future Profits – Cost of Investment) (Cost of Investment) 2. Customer Acquisition Cost: _______Marketing Expenses_____ Newly Acquired Customers (Yearly) Important Terminology • • • • Carrier: A company that is authorized by regulatory agencies to operate a telecommunications service system: AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer – A company whose goods are used as components in the product of another company that sells the finished goods to users LAN: Local Area Network: Locally owned and administered data network that runs primarily through cables –ex. Ethernet connection Fiber Optic: Transmission connectivity via glass strands which are 100x more faster than traditional copper wires for more efficient cell phone and internet connections Important Considerations: • • • • Regional Competition Competitors • New Entrants • Barriers to Entry • Substitutability Contract lengths & stipulations Infrastructure 31 *Please note that not all trends, terminologies, and calculations are listed above Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Products/services CPG companies provide consumers with a range of household products such as cleaning agents, beauty products, snacks, pet foods, etc. Revenue Volume of goods sold; Price premium on branded goods Costs Sales and Marketing (branding, discounting); COGS (raw materials, packaging, and processing) Procter & Gamble (P&G), Unilever, Clorox, Mondelez, Frito Lay Competitive landscape (competitors, Private label products, home remedies substitutes, new entrants) Chobani Customers Walmart, Sams, Costco, Target, Grocery stores, Convenience stores Distribution channel(s) Wholesale to customers (Walmart, etc.) Direct (limited web distribution through Amazon and others) Suppliers/ supply chain Supply chain varies widely by product and region; plants are owned/operated or contract manufactured Key trends Activist investors push cost cutting and selling non-core brands; private label growth; innovation/brand is critical to fight product commoditization 7 Oil & Gas Products/services Products are categorized along the value chain as upstream and downstream. Upstream: oil and natural gas. Downstream: chemicals and plastics Revenue Volume of goods sold; Price is generally determined by global indices Costs Extraction costs, COGS, labor, technology and licensing Upstream: BP, Shell, Aramco, Exxon Mobil Competitive landscape (competitors, Oilfield services: Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes substitutes, new entrants) Downstream: BASF, Dow, SABIC Customers Governments, CPG producers, Utilities companies Distribution channel(s) Wholesale to customers: in large quantities Traders: in smaller quantities Suppliers/ supply chain Products are mostly transported in large quantities by vessels and require long lead times. Key trends Oil prices have been volatile over the past two years. The recent American shale oil boom, and slowdown have seen the price of oil have high variance. 8 Manufacturing Products/services Manufacturing sector includes companies that are in the business of mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials/substances/components into new products Revenue Volume of goods sold; Price premium on branded goods Costs Process efficiency, supply chain management, labor, raw materials/commodities, channel management, marketing, capital investment Competitive General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Boeing, Airbus, GE, Phillips, landscape (competitors, Siemens, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Dow, Corning, HP, Intel substitutes, new entrants) Customers Varies by industry and position in supply chain, can be consumers or raw goods to businesses Distribution channel(s) Retail to consumers (Walmart, etc.) Wholesale to businesses Suppliers/ supply chain Supply chain varies widely by product and region; plants are owned/operated or contract manufactured Key trends Increased automation increasing cyclical nature, location is sector and customer dependent (“next-shoring”) 9 Financial Services Products/services Deposit-based services, credit cards, consumer loans (personal and business), payments, insurance, securities, private wealth management, underwriting for IPOs, retirement accounts, real estate loans Revenue Net revenue is the spread between bank’s borrowing cost and the interest rates charged to borrowers; fees Costs Overhead (branches, administration, compliance); Salaries; Bad Debt Expense; Marketing Competitive landscape (competitors, Large national players (Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi) compete with regional banks. Largest players’ services extend well beyond commercial banking to investment banking, securitization, proprietary trading, etc. with services that are increasingly opaque substitutes, new entrants) Customers Individual consumers High net worth consumers (priority segment) Small/medium businesses without sufficient size for larger investment banking financing services Private companies going public looking for underwriting Distribution channel(s) Still large face-to-face presence with bank branches, tellers, etc. Increasing use of ATM services, online banking Banks increasingly offer credit cards, home loans, etc. as means to increase asset base Suppliers Private deposits from individuals and corporations Key trends Consolidated, mature industry with primary growth through acquisitions Demographic shift (baby boomer aging) creating large market for retirement products Offshoring of various functions to reduce expenses (e.g. call centers, back office functions) 10 Private Equity/Investments Products/services Equity that is not publicly traded Common forms include Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital (VC), Mezzanine Capital, Distressed Investments, and Growth Capital Revenue Return on investments, management fees Levers pulled to increase revenue: timeframe, identifying efficiencies, new management Costs Investment expenses, legal, technical assistance to firms, administrative expenses, travel, labor is very costly (few and highly paid employees), taxes Competitive landscape (competitors, Supply of capital greater than demand Large (e.g. KKR, Carlyle, Blackstone, TPG), Mid ($250M to $5B), and Small Market PE shops substitutes, new entrants) Customers New customers of PE deals may be corporations Institutional investors Customers can range from small family-owned companies to large corporations Distribution channel(s) Leveraged Buyouts: controlling interest (of equity) is acquired through high borrowing Venture Capital: investors give cash in exchange for shares/control; typical with start-ups Mezzanine Capital: financing that contains equity based options and subordinated debt (e.g. convertible loans) Growth capital: financing to expand, restructure, or enter new markets with little change in management Distressed Investments: investing in financially stressed companies Suppliers Private investors, large corporations, foundations Key trends Larger amounts of equity required for each deal, Startup financial performance not always meeting high valuations Health care and tech are seeing most of the activity Buying and selling of current PE commitments likely to increase over the next few years Growing need for PE firms to have cash margins 11 Pharmaceuticals Products/services Brand name/originator drug manufacturers produce original patent-protected (for a certain period of time) drugs for human and animal diseases. Generic drug producers produce ‘copy-cat’ drugs (with the same medical result) at a lower development cost when the originator drug’s patent expires. Revenue Size of specific treatment area / level of competition; Buy-in from doctors that will prescribe; Speed to market (1st to market is important)/ expertise in difficult products (for generics). Dosage and frequency of drugs can alter revenue. Revenue can come directly from patients, but most is received from third party insurers) Costs VC: sales and marketing (doctor visits, sponsored studies); FC: R&D (drug discovery, formulation, clinical trials; a lot of this is now outsourced; generic companies only need to perform clinical trials and are therefore fast to come to market once a patent expires) Competitive landscape (competitors, Success contingent on drug effectiveness, adoption/buy-in from doctors, coverage approval from private and public insurers, patient adherence and ease of use. Products compete within various treatment areas (T): cancer, cardiovascular, psychology etc. US, Europe and Japan are largest markets although emerging market opportunity (eg. China, India, Brazil) is growing. In the US, the Food & Drug Authority (FDA) needs to approve all drugs before sale. Generic drugs are treated as substitutes and usually receive more favorable reimbursements by insurers. substitutes, new entrants) Customers Doctors who prescribe these medicines Insurance companies that pay for them (i.e. private insurers, Medicare (over 65), Medicaid (low-income/disabled) Patients/consumers who need these drugs/medicines In some emerging markets officials (provincial and central government) may control channel access Distribution channel(s) Over the counter (“OTC”, can be sold without prescription); Retail outlets – CVS, Walgreens; Mail order/online; hospitals; pharmacies; doctor’s offices; B2B: Distributors/intermediaries Suppliers/ supply chain Drug manufacturer Key trends Price competition from generic drug manufacturers. Increasing pressure from health insurance companies and hospitals to reduce prices. R&D challenge of finding high revenue drugs (‘Blockbusters’ have annual sales > $1B). Weaker investments in R&D in recent years. Loss of patent on key drugs for many large pharma companies, especially for specialty biologic drugs in the next 5 years. Drug wholesaler/distributor retailer/pharmacy/doctor’s office/hospital patient 12 Airline Products/services Air transportation for passengers and cargo Revenue Ticket sales, baggage fees, food and beverage sales, freight fees Costs Fuel, food and beverage, ground crew, air crew, aircraft lease/payments, airport fees, IT/admin fees, frequent flier program fees, marketing and sales, offices, hangars Competitive landscape (competitors, Legacy carriers (Delta, United, American, Lufthansa, Air India, British Airways) compete with each other and are also competing with low cost carriers (Southwest, Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines, Eurowings, Gogo Air). New entrants are more common in the low cost model. Barrier to entry include available gate space. substitutes, new entrants) Customers Individual passengers, corporate travelers, travel agents/websites Distribution channel(s) Direct from the airline (website, at the airport, over the phone), travel agents (website, in person, over the phone), through other providers as a bundle (cruise and flight bundle, hotel and flight bundle etc.) Suppliers/ supply chain Aircraft manufacturer, avionics manufacturer, aircraft leasing companies, fuel providers, airport operators, flight training providers, catering providers, aircraft maintenance providers Key trends Growth is limited in this market, in 2014 growth was 3%, total expected growth by 2019 in 8.3% over the passenger volume in 2014. Recent years have seen consolidation of legacy carriers (United and Continental, American and US Airways) 13 Media Products/services Media sector includes print, audio and video content generation and distribution. Revenue Advertising is a key revenue driver, additional revenue sources are subscriptions, one-time purchases (video on demand, DVD purchase), licensing fees Costs Production costs (salary, technology, location fees etc), distribution costs, marketing and advertising, promotions, capital costs (studios, equipment etc.) Competitive landscape (competitors, Highly competitive with a few major players owning most of the market. New entrants such as Hulu and Netflix are changing the market. substitutes, new entrants) Customers Individual viewers are part of the product for most ad-revenue driven models. The main customers there are the advertising companies. For subscription based models, the end viewer or consumer of the content is the customer. Distribution channel(s) Online streaming is the fastest growing channel, tradition distribution through retail outlets still exists. Additional distribution through theaters and other ‘live’ events. Suppliers/ supply chain Technology providers (particularly internet service providers are becoming key in allowing high speed streaming), actors, artists and musicians Key trends Online streaming and cord cutting is changing the industry. There is a large focus on creating and controlling content. Companies such as Netflix and Yahoo are starting to create original content to remain competitive 14 Technology Products/services Broad industry consists of PCs, servers, semiconductors, internet service providers, communications providers and equipment, IT services, software and application development, and internet companies. Is part of every industry Revenue Varies by type of product. For PCs revenue is primarily from sales of PC and also from support, for internet mobile applications revenue is driven by clicks on ads. IT services revenue is tied to staff utilization per employee. Costs Costs vary by the product, for software the initial R&D cost is high but the marginal cost for production is negligible. For PCs and servers input costs include component costs, labor costs, distribution and support costs. Semiconductors have high fixed costs. Competitive landscape (competitors, Few large competitors in the PC and server space, many competitors in the software and application development space. Internet companies have low barriers to entry and thus a highly competitive environment; acquisitions of smaller players are common by the internet giants. substitutes, new entrants) Customers Varies by product: ranges from individual customers and corporations to companies looking for advertising channels. Internet companies tend to be B2C (ad click revenue), while companies such as IBM, Oracle, Cisco focus on B2B. Distribution channel(s) Distribution through retail outlets and B2B channels for hardware, online distribution through app stores/ websites for software. Limited distribution of software through physical media Suppliers/ supply chain For hardware: various suppliers include raw material providers, semiconductor manufactures, machine and technology providers For software: supply chain includes software testing houses, distribution through 3rd party such as app store Key trends Acquisition of talent and technology by established industry players. Freemium and ad-driven revenue models for software. New technologies entering the business segment: Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data (predictive) analytics, mobile (computing everywhere), 3D printing, machine learning. 15 Banking and Financial Services Overview: Industry offers services like lending, insurance, and securities management • • • • Types of banks: commercial banking, retail banking, investment banking Products include credit cards, mortgages, loans, insurance, and checking/savings accounts Customers can be segmented by income levels, individual vs small business vs large business Highly competitive: international and national players compete with regional banks and new online banks Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • Interest Fixed or Variable Fees (trading commissions, M&A fees, asset management fees) Premiums • • • • • IT (back-end processing, security, apps & websites) Real estate costs (physical branches) Labor (customer service commonly off-shored) Marketing Research (e.g., on securities) Losses on investments (e.g., loan defaults) Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • Use of AI / Blockchain to verify transactions Growth of mobile banking; disruption in the industry from Fintech and online banks Regulations within the industry – e.g. Dodd-Frank increased capital requirements for banks Changes in customer demographics creating a larger market for retirement products © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 20 Retail Overview: Industry consists of department stores, wholesale retailers, discount stores, speciality retailers, and online retailers. Amazon and other online retailers caused major disruption in the industry by lowering operating costs and passing savings to customers. Technology also reduced bargaining power of retailers as customers can easily compare prices online. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • • • • • • • • • Traffic (foot / online) Conversion rate (visits vs purchases) Basket size (driven by consumer spending) Avg. price per item Other revenue (e.g., after sales services) Key Metrics: • Sales per square foot • Inventory turnover • Total revenue = traffic * conversion rate * basket size * avg. price per item Cost of goods sold Returns Inventory management (storage and stock) Distribution Delivery Labor Real estate Online retail – technology cost Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • • Seasonality is a big factor in retail sales – large portion of sales occur in holiday season / end of year Industry is very impacted by economic conditions Social media presence has a large impact on brand strength and perceptions Omnichannel retail is growing through e-commerce development or acquisition More private label products (i.e. Walmart brand instead of manufacturer brand) Use of big data to tailor the shopping experience © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 21 Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Overview: Industry consists of household durable and non-durable products. Mature industry and concentrated market in the US with most growth coming from emerging markets. Sales are impacted by type of product – luxury vs basic necessity. Customers can be retailers or end users. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • • • • • • • • • Sales direct to consumer (higher margins) Sales to retailers (lower margins) Shelf placement in stores Packaging and price tiering Product mix (cannibalization vs complementary products) Cost of goods sold (raw materials) Manufacturing facilities (owned or leased) Packaging Distribution & inventory management Marketing R&D – new product innovation Environmental and regulatory costs Durables – spoilage Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • • • Discounts and price promotions have lowered margins Cannibalization can be a concern when introducing new products, so firms regularly rationalize brands Tariffs and regulations play a role in imports / exports and where the firm is manufacturing or sourcing Small firms compete via specialization or local targeting High buyer power for retailers (e.g., Walmart) Demand has recently increased for organic / socially minded companies In-store experiences are one way to increase direct to consumer sales © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 22 Technology Overview: Includes online services (security, productivity, platforms – Google, Amazon, Dropbox), hardware (computers, smartphones, servers – Apple, Samsung, Lenovo), software (search, storage – Microsoft, Oracle, Adobe). Key customer segments include: large companies, small/medium businesses, retail/consumers. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: Online services • Ad revenue (especially for free services) • Subscriptions (mostly B2B) Hardware • Sales: price * # of goods sold • After sales services Software • Licenses • Managed services (SaaS) Online services • R&D • Product development • IT & back-end infrastructure • Customer service Hardware • Component COGS • Manufacturing & labor Software • High up-front investment in development • Lower variable costs following product launch • Privacy protection Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • Innovation in the industry has reduced product life spans and increased obsolescence Firms are trying to create ecosystems (e.x. Google Home, Amazon Echo) Businesses want dynamic software with low implementation costs Software sales are highly dependent on network effects Key Terms: Internet of Things, cloud computing, Blockchain, AI / Machine Learning, GDPR © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 23 Healthcare Providers (hospitals, nursing homes) Overview: The industry consists of facilities, distributors, and service providers (e.g. hospitals, emergency care facilities, clinics, nursing homes, pharmacies). Rising healthcare costs in the US. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • Collections from third party payers (i.e. insurance companies) Co-payments Government re-imbursement (~50% of spend) Inpatient & outpatient treatment costs (without insurance) • • • • • Key Metrics: • Bed capacity utilization • # of deaths in surgery • # of patients seen High upfront investment in hospital facilities and equipment Physicians (i.e. doctors & nurses) Medical suppliers Insurance (malpractice liability) SG&A Other labor Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • • • Shortage of physicians and nursing staff Frequency and cost of medical visits increase with age New technology advancements allow for more outpatient procedures (as opposed to inpatient) Rise in unemployment correlates with a decline in elective procedures Wearables (e.g., Apple Watch) are keeping people healthier More data allows for personalized care and faster recommendations Non-profits partner with for-profits to decrease costs © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 24 Healthcare Payers (insurance companies) Overview: Industry provides insurance coverage to both companies and individuals. Insurance is heavily based on risk measurement and forecasting the inflows and outflows of cash. Five main types of plans exist: • Fee for Service (FFS): insurance pays one-off providers and patients sees anyone they want • Health Maintenance Organization (HMO): integrated payer and provider; cheaper but less selection • Preferred Provider: mix of FFS and HMO • High Deductible: lower premium; on patient to use services efficiently • Pharmacy Benefits Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • Insurance premiums Government subsidies Key Metrics: • # of doctor visits • # of people employed • Population age • Total health expenditures • • Payouts to healthcare providers – insurance companies often negotiate directly with healthcare providers on reimbursement rates; billed price is typically paid at a discount Re-insurance Labor Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • Market is slowly consolidating (top 4 payers are 35%), with the rest fairly fragmented. Industry has been affected by healthcare reform – increases in bottom line due to pressure to eliminate / lower coverage caps, reduce denials based on pre-existing conditions, and increase in insured population Firms differentiate based on broader network coverage, lower administration fees, steeper discounts on provider charges, and add-ons (e.g., case management) Price comparisons occur on exchanges / online marketplaces © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 25 Life Sciences / Pharma Overview: Industry encompasses originator drug producers, generic drug manufacturers and pure R&D firms. It can take years to get a new drug approved and on the market. Strict and cumbersome regulatory processes. Customers can be doctors / providers or patients. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • • • • Drug sales – difference in price comes from OTC / prescription drugs 3rd party payer reimbursement Government subsidies Key Metrics: • # of patented drugs • Market sizing: total population → % with illness → % diagnosed → market share of drug → price of one dose * # of doses per year Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • High growth in emerging markets Patents protect drugs for up to 20 years First mover advantage is real FDA approvals last 5 years with a high failure rate of drugs Increasing demand for pricing transparency © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 26 High R&D Regulatory and legal costs (e.g., patents, FDA) Manufacturing and production Distribution and sales Labor Airlines Overview: Two types: cargo and commercial. Within commercial airlines segments include international vs national vs regional, and low cost vs legacy carriers. Two main traveller types: leisure (price sensitive) vs business (price inelastic). Industry faces extensive price competition. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • • • • • • Ticket fees Extra baggage fees In-flight purchases (e.g., food and beverages, entertainment) • Tiered amenities (e.g., extra leg room seats) • Ancillary revenue (e.g., reservation changes) • Cargo fees Key Metrics: • Load factor = % of aircraft capacity filled by paying passengers • • Gate leases Fuel Aircraft leases Insurance & Legal fees Maintenance / equipment Crew & ground staff salaries In-flight consumables (e.g., food and beverages, entertainment) Marketing Technology (e.g., booking system) Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • Major consolidation within industry due to high fixed costs Rise in third party booking websites (e.g., Booking.com, Expedia) Airlines use rewards programs (miles) and partnerships with hotels, car rentals and credit card companies to increase loyalty / differentiate Low cost carriers (e.g, Southwest, Spirit) creating price wars Reduce costs by fuel efficiency opportunities and route optimization © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 27 Media & Entertainment Overview: The industry encompasses the creation, licensing and/ or distribution of video, audio, and print media. Major disruption in the industry due to digital content. Disruptors include online news and online streaming services (e.g., Netflix, Hulu). Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • • Advertising (largest revenue category, especially for media offered free to customers) Subscriptions Licensing fees One-time purchases Merchandise • • • • Media production (e.g., studios, equipment, printing presses) Talent (e.g., actors, editors, writers) Other labor (e.g., sales staff) Marketing Technology – especially for digital media Key Metrics: • Viewership / Readership Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • • Very consolidated due to history of conglomerates High importance of network effects to grow viewership / readership Most media has shifted to omnichannel presence Digital media has low barriers to entry, creates downward pressure on ad prices, and increases piracy risks Consumer and advertising spending is highly influenced by macroeconomic conditions Augmented reality / virtual reality technology © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 28 Oil & Gas Overview: Oil & Gas is a stage based industry. Majority of market share tied to upstream operations. • • • Upstream: Drilling and extracting raw oil (usually contracted out) Midstream: Transporting the raw oil Downstream: Refining and selling the finished petroleum products Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • Upstream • Exploration (e.g., land leases) • Rig rates (usually daily) & rig utilization • Drilling and extraction equipment & labor Midstream • Crude oil • Storage • Transportation • Pipeline construction Downstream • Crude oil • Refinery equipment & labor Upstream: Crude oil price Midstream: Transportation fees Downstream: Sale of gasoline, oils, fuel, and other petroleum products Important Considerations / Trends: • • • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) accounts for ~44% of global oil production and ~73% of the worlds proven oil resources. OPEC effectively controls the price of oil. Tech (e.g., fracking) increases output and pushes costs down Liability for spills © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 29 Industrials Overview: Provides products and services primarily used to produce other goods. Main sectors include electrical equipment / components, heavy machinery, construction, and aerospace and defense. Main customers include the government, OEMs, and B2B. Market is very consolidated, functioning as an oligopoly. Revenue Drivers: Cost Drivers: • • • • • • Volume (driven by product type and demand) Contract length Bundling of product and services (e.g. maintenance package) Customization (made to order vs. large batch) New technologies and products (automation) • • • • • Key Metrics: • Capacity utilization • Inventory turnover • Book-to-bill ratio Manufacturing – capital intensive (can be leased / owned) Raw materials Labor – often unionized R&D Marketing & trade shows Distribution & inventory management Important Considerations / Trends: • • • • • Tied to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, production and capacity utilization, and economic indicators Greatly impacted by recession, as drop in overall capital and construction spend decreases Local assembly is cheaper because it’s easier to ship Push to just-in-time inventory Often commoditized, with high switch costs © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 30 Casing Math Numbers to Know Casing math is one of the essential skills to master. While the specific mathematics are rarely complex, quick recognition, shortcuts, and application of key concepts is essential to progressing efficiently and saving time to focus on other aspects of the case. What follows is a list of common concepts and constants that you should become familiar with. The list is by no means exhaustive but will provide a solid foundation for you to begin building speed and accuracy. • Multiplication Table up to 20 * 20 • Be particularly familiar with perfect squares • Division rules • Be comfortable working with percentages • Fractions as Decimals Finally, one of the most common mistakes made is with orders of magnitude. Find the way that most makes sense for you to keep track of zeros as they can make or break a case. For some, it’s scientific notation while others prefer simply using letters. example: K * K = M and B / K = M 1/6 .1667 1/7 .1428 1/9 .1111 1/11 .0909 1/12 .0833 1/15 .0667 1/16 .0625 1/18 .0555 14 © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved Casing Math: Key Formulas Net Present Value • • • πππ = • Percent Change Know how to set up NPV calculations for both perpetuities and annuities. Do not forget to include initial investment costs, if applicable Perpetuity (if the cash flow is constant, g = 0): % πβππππ = ππππππ π£πππ’π − πππππππππ π£πππ’π πππππππππ π£πππ’π % πβππππ = πΆππ β πΉπππ€ π = π·ππ πππ’ππ‘ π ππ‘π − πΊπππ€π‘β π ππ‘π π − π Annuity: πππ = π0 + π1 π2 + 1+π 1+π 2 + π3 1+π ππππππ π£πππ’π − 1 πππππππππ π£πππ’π Rule of 72 3 + … Investments double in 72 % π΄πππ’ππ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ π ππ‘π Break Even Return on Investment πΉππ₯ππ πΆππ π‘ = ππ’πππ‘ππ‘π¦ ∗ πππππ − ππππππππ πΆππ π‘ • • Has many applications to solve for any unknown P – VC is the contribution margin © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved π ππΌ = 15 πΊπππ − πΆππ π‘ πΆππ π‘ years Casing Math: Accounting Income Statement GAAP Margins πΊπππ π ππππππ = Non-GAAP Revenue ππππππ‘πππ ππππππ = - COGS πππ‘ ππππππ = = Gross Profit - SG&A π ππ£πππ’π − πΆππΊπ πΊπππ π ππππππ‘ = π ππ£πππ’π π ππ£πππ’π πππ‘ πΌπππππ π ππ£πππ’π = EDBITDA - Depreciation = Operating Profit ππππππ‘πππ ππππππ‘ π ππ£πππ’π Markups = EBIT πππππ’π = - Interest, Taxes + Gains πππππ − πΆππ π‘ πΆππ π‘ Inventory Turns - Losses πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ ππ’πππ = = Net Income π΄πππ’ππ πΆππΊπ π΄π£πππππ πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ ππ’ππππ£ππ ππππππ = note: Gains and Losses refer to Gains/Losses on, for example, the sale of PP&E. © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved note: do not confuse with margin 365 π·ππ¦π πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ ππ’πππ 16 Casing Math: Market Sizing Market Sizing Approach Common Market Sizing Constants Market sizing is a common case interview component as it tests your structure, creativity, estimation skills, and mathematics. Familiarize yourself with the two most common approaches: top-down and bottom-up. Then follow this methodology: • • • • Lay out the problem before doing any multiplication • Structure the items you need, and how they’ll interact (addition, multiplication, division, etc.) • Don’t make it more complicated that it has to be Make and state assumptions. Be open to feedback from your interviewer and adjust if necessary. • Try to pick numbers that are easier to work with Always gut check your answer • There are wrong answers. If your sizing feels off, go back and challenge your assumptions. • If the number makes sense, don’t stop there. Make an insight and drive the case forward. Market sizing questions can appear as part of a larger case or as the case itself • Recognizing the context of the question will help to inform the complexity of your approach Always remember the scope of the market you are sizing (e.g., US vs Global) and never forget the units you are solving for! © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 17 • • • US Population: 320 M NYC Population: 8 M US Households: 120 M • • US Life Expectancy: 80 years US Population Growth (CAGR): ~0.7% • • • US GDP: 19T US GDP CAGR: ~2% Median Household Income: ~$60,000 • • • • Europe Population: 740 M Asia Population: 4.4 B Africa Population: 1.2 B Global Population: 7.4 B Additional Casing Resources Resource Uses Cost Management Consulted • • • Additional case access Firm overviews, skill practice 1-on-1 casing practice ($) Most resources free through MCA subscription FastMath • Mental math tutorials and practice $49 (sign up with Stern email address) S&P Industry Reports • Industry insights (e.g., margins, growth, drivers) Free through Stern dashboard Rocket Blocks • • • Framework drills Charts and data analysis skills work Mental math practice $35 / month or $155 / year • Various resources including fast math and framework practice to resume and cover letter coaching Look Over My Shoulder program is a collection of audio files of example live-cases, both good and bad Most resources free through MCA Case Interview Secrets • Other resources: https://nyustern.campusgroups.com/mca/links/ © 2019 NYU | Stern MCA – All Rights Reserved 18