Digiworld (DGW) [BUY +35.8%] Update Report Industry: ICT Distribution Report Date: May 19, 2023 Current Price: VND33,000 Target Price: VND44,800 Previous Target Price VND52,000 Upside to TP: +35.8% Dividend Yield: 0% TSR: +35.8% Rev Growth EPS Growth GPM NPM EV/EBITDA P/CFO P/E 2022A 5.0% 0.9% 7.5% 3.1% 8.2x N.M. 7.8x 2023F -21.4% -46.2% 6.6% 2.2% 14.0x 4.6x 14.5x Market Cap: Foreign Room: ADTV30D: State Ownership: Outstanding Shares: Fully Diluted Shares: P/E (ttm) P/B (curr) Net D/E ROE ROA DGW 10.0x 2.2x 66% 19.7% 10.5% VNI 14.4x 1.6x N/A 12.8% 2.0% USD235mn USD63mn USD3.0mn 0.0% 167.1 mn 167.1 mn Ha Huynh Analyst ha.huynhthu@vietcap.com.vn +84 28 3914 3588 ext. 185 Nam Hoang Senior Manager nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn +84 28 3914 3588 ext. 124 2024F 11.2% 54.9% 7.3% 3.1% 9.8x 10.0x 9.4x 2025F 15.3% 30.8% 7.7% 3.5% 7.4x 11.0x 7.2x 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% May-22 DGW Aug-22 Nov-22 VNI Feb-23 May-23 Company overview DGW is one of the leading ICT distributors in Vietnam. Its main segments include phones, laptops, office equipment, home appliances and consumer goods. In addition to its traditional distribution services, DGW provides comprehensive market expansion services. 2023 earnings slump partly offset by non-ICT segments • We cut our target price (TP) for DGW by 14% but maintain our BUY rating. • Our lower TP is due to cutting our aggregate 2023-25F NPAT-MI by 31% (-45%/-31%/-20% in 2023/24/25F, respectively), which is mainly the result of (1) lowering our forecast for DGW’s ICT (mobile phones & laptops) aggregate 2023-25F revenue by 26% and (2) trimming DGW’s GPM by 50 bps to 6.6% 2023F, respectively, due to significantly weaker-than-expected results in Q1 2023, coupled with our previous expectation for weak consumption throughout 2023. This is partly offset by (1) increasing our aggregate 2023-25F consumer goods revenue by 40% and (2) rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2024. • We believe DGW looks attractive at a 2024F PER of 9.4x vs its 3Y average TTM PER of 13.8x and 3Y average of our selected peer median TTM PER of 11.3x. • Upside catalysts: Further partnership or value-accretive M&A that expands DGW’s product portfolio — especially in home appliances and/or consumer goods. • Downside risks to our view: Loss of contracts with major brands; weaker-than-expected consumer spending on ICT goods. Weak ICT sales in 2023. We expect mobile phones & laptops will deliver sales growth of -28%/10%/14% YoY in 2023F/24F/25F following a 51% YoY plunge in Q1 2023. Specifically, we expect DGW’s Xiaomi revenue to decline 22% YoY in 2023. Furthermore, we expect DGW’s iPhone sales to drop 35% YoY in 2023 as we believe management will closely manage iPhone inventory due to the insignificant profit margin earned from distributing iPhones so far this year. Decline in office equipment segment to be partly offset by sales contribution from Achison products in 2023. We believe DGW’s corporate clients have taken a hit from overall weak demand and the difficult business environment. We expect office equipment sales to deliver growth of -8%/15%/20% YoY in 2023F/24F/25F, which will partly be offset by the new revenue contribution from industrial safety equipment provider Achison (60% owned by DGW as of endQ1 2023). We forecast Achison to contribute 16% of DGW’s office equipment sales in 2023F. Gradual change in product mix toward higher-margin products to drive growth. Over the past year, DGW has made a strong expansion in non-ICT categories. In H2 2022, DGW started to distribute Whirlpool and Joyoung home appliances. Additionally, DGW became ABInBev beer’s sole distributor in the modern trade channel in December 2022, which contributed ~40% to DGW’s consumer goods sales in Q1 2023. In Q1 2023, DGW signed new distribution contracts for Westinghouse home appliances and Lotte Chilsung beverages. Per our estimates, GPMs of office equipment, consumer goods and home appliances range from low-teen to high-teen rates vs midto-high single-digit GPMs of ICT segments. We expect the combined sales contribution from office equipment, consumer goods and home appliances to be 26%/27% in 2024/25F vs 19% in 2022. See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 1 Q1 2023 Recap: Earnings drop on weak ICT sales Figure 1: DGW’s Q1 2023 results VND bn Q1 2022 Q1 2023 YoY 7,009 3,960 -44% Mobile phones Laptops & tablets Office equipment 3,880 2,252 742 1,899 1,094 682 -51% -51% -8% Home appliances 64 165 158% Consumer goods 71 120 69% 466 -232 -25 210 55 265 211 261 -118 -46 97 10 107 79 -44% -49% 84% -54% -82% -60% -62% GPM 6.7% 6.6% EBIT margin 3.0% 2.4% Revenue Gross profit Selling expenses G&A expenses EBIT Non-operating items PBT NPAT-MI Vietcap’s comments The severe YoY decline was mainly attributed to sharp decreases in mobile sales (48% of Q1 2023 total sales) and laptop & tablet sales (28% of Q1 2023 total sales). New brands Whirlpool, Xiaomi and Joyoung primarily began contributing in H2 2022. The jump comes from ABInBev beers, which started to be distributed in Q4 2022. ABInBev beers accounted for approximately 40% of the segment’s total revenue in Q1 2023. Due to 75% YoY increase in interest expenses. Margins NPAT-MI margin GPM slid 10 bps YoY, which was partly offset by the change in the product mix toward higher-margin products (i.e., office equipment, home appliances and consumer goods). EBIT margin declined 60 bps YoY due to (1) promotional expenses/sales being 150 bps higher YoY to stimulate sales and (2) additional goodwill from Achison, which DGW started to consolidate in Q1 2023. 3.0% 2.0% Source: DGW, Vietcap See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 2 2023F: Weak ICT to be partly cushioned by higher contributions from home appliances & consumer goods Figure 3: Vietcap’s 2023 forecasts VND bn Revenue Mobile phones 2022 22,028 2023F old 23,468 2023F new 17,315 2023F new YoY -21% 10,759 11,632 8,099 -25% 7,028 6,465 4,779 -32% Office equipment 3,320 4,927 3,054 -8% Home appliances Consumer goods Gross profit Selling expenses G&A expenses EBIT Non-operating items PBT NPAT-MI 556 397 1,663 -722 -136 805 772 445 1,667 -739 -115 814 773 609 1,150 -530 -152 468 39% 54% -31% -27% 12% -42% 57 71 16 -73% 862 684 885 690 484 377 -44% -45% Laptops & tablets Vietcap’s comments on 2023F We forecast Xiaomi revenue to drop 22% to ~VND5.4tn (USD231mn). Meanwhile, we forecast iPhone sales to drop 35% YoY to VND2.5tn (USD105mn) due to management’s effort to control inventory given minimal profit earned from iPhones due to fierce price competition. Mainly due to our expectation for weak consumer demand. We expect existing office equipment sales to drop 23% YoY as a result of weak demand from corporate clients, which we expect will be partly offset by a new VND500bn (USD21mn) sales contribution from Achison. Mainly due to new brand contributions in 2023F. Mainly due to new brand contributions in 2023F. Margins GPM 7.5% EBIT margin NPAT-MI margin 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% Source: DGW, Vietcap See important disclosure at the end of this document 7.1% 6.6% Mainly because we project GPM of the mobile phone and laptops segment to decline by 170/150 bps YoY to 4.3%/5.5%, respectively, in 2023, which is partly offset by higher contributions from office equipment, home appliances and consumer goods, whose GPMs range from low-teen to highteen rates, per our estimates. 2.7% 2.2% www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 3 Valuation We maintain our FCFE valuation approach given DGW’s simple business structure and the effectiveness of the FCFE method in capturing ownership dilution due to DGW’s potential future ESOP issuances. In this update report, we roll over our TP horizon to mid-2024. In order to factor in the dilution impact of DGW’s ESOP and stock option programs from the perspective of an existing shareholder, we continue to assign our projected FCFE with weightings that reflect the cumulative dilution of projected future ESOP issuances and stock options (Figure 5). Figure 4: DCF valuation Cost of Equity Beta Market risk premium % Risk Free Rate % Cost of Equity % Current 1.0 8.0 6.0 14.0 Previous 1.0 8.0 6.0 14.0 FCFE (Five Year) PV of Free Cash Flows PV of Terminal Val (4.0% g) PV of FCF and TV - Minority Interest Equity Value Shares (million) Value per share, VND VND bn 2,622 4,861 7,483 0 7,483 167.1 44,787 Source: Vietcap Figure 5: Cash flow in 2023F-2027F VND bn Net income - Capex + Depreciation - Change in working cap + Net borrowings + ESOP and stock option proceeds FCFE + ESOP and stock option proceeds (1) Adjustment weighting related to ESOP and stock options (2) Attributed FCFE after ESOP and stock option adjustments (1 x 2) Present Value of attributed FCFE Cumulative PV of attributed FCFE Source: Vietcap 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 377 -13 9 859 -741 40 587 -13 10 -11 200 0 776 -13 11 -246 200 23 881 -13 12 98 -206 23 973 -13 12 103 -208 0 531 773 751 795 867 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 531 773 741 772 843 497 635 534 488 467 497 1,132 1,666 2,154 2,622 Figure 6: Sensitivity analysis of our target price for DGW to cost of equity and terminal growth rate, ceteris paribus Target Price (VND) Terminal growth (g) Cost of equity (Ke) 3.0% 3.5% 13.0% 46,000 47,700 13.5% 43,900 45,400 14.0% 41,900 43,300 14.5% 40,100 41,300 15.0% 38,500 39,600 4.0% 49,700 47,100 44,800 42,700 40,800 4.5% 51,800 49,000 46,500 44,200 42,100 5.0% 54,200 51,100 48,300 45,800 43,600 Source: Vietcap See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 4 Recommendation History Figure 7: Recommendation history (VND/share) Actual price M-PF 80,000 90,000 BUY 81,000 Target price O-PF 84,000 BUY 55,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 BUY 87,000 BUY 52,000 M-PF 47,000 BUY 44,800 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Source: Bloomberg, Vietcap See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 5 Financial Statements P&L (VND bn) Revenue COGS Gross Profit 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F B/S (VND bn) 22,028 17,315 19,258 22,205 Cash & equivalents -20,365 -16,165 -17,848 -20,489 2022 2023F 2024F 828 661 730 771 0 500 1,000 1,500 Accounts receivables 1,579 1,423 1,583 1,825 Inventories 3,254 2,702 2,836 3,200 121 95 106 122 5,782 5,381 6,255 7,418 181 ST investments 1,663 1,150 1,410 1,716 Sales & Marketing exp -722 -530 -684 -766 General & Admin exp -136 -152 -54 -62 Other current assets 805 468 672 887 Total Current assets Operating Profit Financial income 2025F 209 143 176 205 Fixed assets, gross 140 154 167 -144 -126 -94 -95 - Depreciation -45 -54 -64 -75 -94 -108 -76 -77 Fixed assets, net 96 100 103 106 Associates -2 -2 -2 -2 LT investments 71 71 71 71 Net other income/(loss) -6 0 0 0 LT assets other 407 446 490 541 862 484 753 995 -179 -102 -158 -209 NPAT before MI 684 382 594 786 Minority Interest 0 -5 -8 NPAT less MI, reported 684 377 587 NPAT less MI, adjusted(1) 684 377 587 776 Other ST liabilities Financial expenses - o/w interest expense Profit before Tax Income Tax Total LT assets 573 617 664 718 Total Assets 6,355 5,998 6,919 8,135 -10 Accounts payable 1,210 1,497 1,724 2,000 776 Short-term debt 1,915 1,215 1,415 1,615 757 595 662 763 3,882 3,307 3,801 4,377 41 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 3,932 3,316 3,810 4,386 Total current liabilities EBITDA Long-term debt 811 477 682 898 EPS reported, VND 4,217 2,268 3,513 4,597 Other LT liabilities EPS adjusted (1), VND 4,217 2,268 3,513 4,597 Total Liabilities EPS diluted, adj (1), VND 4,217 2,268 3,513 4,597 556 13.2% 0 0 1,000 28.5% 1,000 21.8% 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F Other equity -6 -6 -6 -6 5.0% -21.4% 11.2% 15.3% Minority interests 29 34 41 51 DPS, VND DPS/EPS (%) (1) Adjusted for one-offs RATIOS Op profit (EBIT) growth Paid-in capital Share premium Growth Revenue growth Preferred equity Retained earnings 0 0 0 0 1,632 1,672 1,672 1,696 61 61 61 61 707 921 1,340 1,947 16.8% -41.9% 43.7% 32.0% Total equity 2,423 2,682 3,109 3,749 PBT growth 4.8% -43.9% 55.6% 32.2% Liabilities & equity 6,355 5,998 6,919 8,135 EPS growth, adjusted 0.9% -46.2% 54.9% 30.8% Y/E shares out, mn 163.1 167.1 167.1 169.4 Y/E treasury shares, mn 0.2 2022 0.2 2023F 0.2 2024F 0.2 2025F 1,494 828 661 730 684 377 587 776 6 9 10 11 -1,859 859 -11 -246 Profitability Gross Profit Margin 7.5% 6.6% 7.3% 7.7% EBIT Margin 3.7% 2.7% 3.5% 4.0% EBITDA Margin 3.7% 2.8% 3.5% 4.0% CASH FLOW (VND bn) Beginning Cash Balance Net Income NPAT-MI Margin, adj, 3.1% 2.2% 3.1% 3.5% Depreciation & amort’ ROE 32.5% 14.8% 20.3% 22.6% Change in Working Cap ROA 10.6% 6.1% 9.1% 10.3% Other adjustments Cash from Operations -6 -35 -36 -41 -1,176 1,211 550 501 Efficiency Days Inventory On Hand 55 67 57 54 Capital Expenditures, net -13 -13 -13 -13 Days Accts, Receivable 27 32 28 28 Investments, net -247 -500 -500 -500 Days Accts, Payable 36 32 33 33 Cash from Investments -260 -513 -513 -513 Cash Conversion Days 46 67 52 49 -91 -163 -167 -170 22 40 0 23 Dividends Paid ∆ in Share Capital Liquidity Current Ratio x 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 ∆ in ST debt 798 -700 200 200 Quick Ratio x 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 ∆ in LT debt 41 -41 0 0 Cash Ratio x 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other financing C/F 0 0 0 0 Debt / Assets 30.8% 20.3% 20.4% 19.8% Cash from Financing 770 -864 33 54 Debt / Capital 44.7% 31.2% 31.3% 30.1% Net Debt / Equity 46.6% 2.0% -10.1% -17.5% Net Change in Cash -667 -167 69 41 8.5 4.3 8.8 11.5 828 661 730 771 Interest Coverage x Ending Cash Balance Source: DGW, Vietcap See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 6 Vietcap Rating System Stock ratings are set based on projected total shareholder return (TSR), defined as (target price – current price)/current price + dividend yield, and are not related to market performance. Equity rating key Definition BUY If the projected TSR is 20% or higher OUTPERFORM If the projected TSR is between 10% and 20% MARKET PERFORM If the projected TSR is between -10% and 10% UNDERPERFORM If the projected TSR is between -10% and -20% SELL If the projected TSR is -20% or lower NOT RATED The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulation and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Vietcap is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. RATING SUSPENDED, COVERAGE TERMINATED A rating may be suspended, or coverage terminated, if fundamental information is deemed insufficient to determine a target price or investment rating or due to a reallocation of research resources. Any previous investment rating and target price are no longer in effect. Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters are set with a 12-month horizon. Movement in share prices may cause a temporary mismatch between the latest published rating and projected TSR for a stock based on its market price and the latest published target price. Target prices are generally based on the analyst's assessment of the stock’s fair value over a 12-month horizon. However, the target price may differ from the analyst’s fair value if the analyst believes that the market will not price the stock in line with assessed fair value over the specified time horizon. Risks: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative. See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 7 Disclaimer Analyst Certification of Independence We, Ha Huynh and Nam Hoang, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities or issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking. 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See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 8 Contacts Corporate www.vietcap.com.vn Head Office Bitexco Financial Tower, 15th Floor 2 Hai Trieu Street, District 1, HCMC +84 28 3914 3588 Hanoi Branch 109 Tran Hung Dao Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi +84 24 6262 6999 Head Office Vinatex Building, 1st & 3rd Floor 10 Nguyen Hue Street, District 1, HCMC +84 28 3914 3588 (417) Transaction Office Ham Nghi 16th Floor, Doji Tower, 81-83-83B-85 Ham Nghi Street District 1, HCMC +84 28 3914 3588 (400) Transaction Office Dong Da 9 Nguyen Ngoc Doan Dong Da District, Hanoi +84 24 6262 6999 Transaction Office ABS Sailing Tower, 8th Floor 111A Pasteur Street, District 1, HCMC +84 28 3914 3588 (403) Research Research Team: +84 28 3914 3588 research@vietcap.com.vn Alastair Macdonald, Head of Research, ext 105 alastair.macdonald@vietcap.com.vn Banks, Securities and Insurance Duy Nguyen, Senior Manager, ext 123 - Truc Ngo, Senior Analyst, ext 116 - Ngoc Huynh, Senior Analyst, ext 138 Macro Luong Hoang, Senior Manager, ext 368 - Nguyen Truong, Senior Analyst, ext 132 - Nga Ho, Analyst, ext 516 Consumer Nam Hoang, Senior Manager, ext 124 - Ha Huynh, Analyst, ext 185 - Han Mai, Analyst, ext 538 - Khanh Vu, Analyst, ext 130 Oil & Gas, Power and Water Duong Dinh, Senior Manager, ext 140 - Ngan Ly, Analyst, ext 532 - Man Bach, Analyst, ext 135 - Linh Tran, Analyst, ext 196 Real Estate Hong Luu, Senior Manager, ext 120 - Anh Pham, Analyst, ext 149 - Thuc Than, Analyst, ext 174 Industrials and Infrastructure Vy Nguyen, Manager, ext 147 - Vinh Bui, Senior Analyst, ext 191 Retail Client Research Duc Vu, Associate Director, ext 363 - Trung Nguyen, Senior Analyst, ext 129 - Anh Tong, Senior Analyst, ext 366 - Ha Bui, Analyst, ext 365 - Ngoc Vu, Analyst, ext 365 Brokerage and Institutional Sales & Trading Tuan Nhan Managing Director, Brokerage & Institutional Sales & Trading +84 28 3914 3588, ext 107 Quynh Chau Managing Director Brokerage +84 28 3914 3588, ext 222 Dung Nguyen Director Institutional Sales & Trading +84 28 3914 3588, ext 136 tuan.nhan@vietcap.com.vn quynh.chau@vietcap.com.vn dung.nguyen@vietcap.com.vn See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn | Vietcap<GO> May 19, 2023 | 9
