ABAARSO TECH UNIVERSITY
FACULTY BUSINESS OF MANAGEMENT
DEPARTMENT OF SPECIAL ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE
THESIS PROPOSAL BOOK
BY Deeqa Ahmed Ciise
The impact of drought
Acknowgement
Iam grateful to all of those with whom I have had the pleasure to work during this and
other related projects Each of the members of my Dissertation committee has provided
me extensive personal and profession guidance and though and thought me a great deal
about both scientific research and life general
Acknowledgement……………………………
Abstract……………………………………………….
Table constants…………………………………………….
Table constants
Chapter One
1.0.
Introduction………………………………… 1
1.1 Backgroug of study…………………………………2
1.2 Problem statement…………………………….3
1.3 Objectives of study……………………………………4
1.3.1 General objectives……………………………4
1.3.2. Specific objectives………………………………4
1.4. Research question………………………………5
1.5. Importance of study………………………………….6
Chapter two
Literature review
2.0 introduction………………………….7
2.1 Theoretical literature…………………..8
2.2.1 concept of drought………………………8
2.3 characteristics of drough……………………..9
ABSTRACT
This study presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available climatological data
and information on droughts to examine the major causes of droughts recurrence in Somaliland
by analyzing the drought occurrence in the past decades with special focus on drought categories
and its impact on the livelihoods and sustainable development of Somaliland. The primary data
use for this study will collect from the rainfall stations across Somaliland as well as climate data
retrieved from CHIRPS gridded rainfall dataset. However, the main findings of the present study
were; Somaliland is characterized by drought, which is known to have the most far-reaching
impacts of all natural disasters. This obvious challenge is most likely to aggravate due to slow
progress in drought risk management, increased population and massive land degradation. The
study also found that after a large scale failure of the rains during the 2016 Deyr season have led
to severe drought conditions across Somaliland, resulting in extensive growing season failures
and record low v
Vegetation. The most seriously affected areas in this current drought are the eastern regions. On
the other hand, based on the available climatological data from the past, it clearly shows that
Somaliland is likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in the coming years as climate
change is anticipated to increase the intensity and frequency of drought. As a result, there is a
clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to lessen the negative
impacts of
Recurrent droughts
Chapter one
1.0 Introduction:
This chapter focus on background of the study, problem statement and objectives of the study and
research questions.
1. Background of study
Globally
Drought as a natural disaster considered to be major contributing factor to political, economic, and
social losses. And therefore the response under the decentralized system of governance has been
major issue due to the complexities confronting several countries affected by drought (Dustin
2018) The losses identified with drought in comparison to other natural disasters are likely to result
in migration whereby an estimate of USD 6-8 billion has been recorded on a worldwide basis
(Kindra, 2013)
Drought response in different parts of the world has been considered to encounter several
challenges that finally results in a food crisis and also a loss of lives (Shaw el at, 2011). This is in
line with the study that was derived from the East Africa region on food crisis that greatly affected
Somalia, Djibouti, and Kenya affecting the livelihood of 9.5 million individual (SIDA, 2015).
Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate throughout the world, with characteristics and
impacts that can vary from region to region.
Figure 1.1 illustrates the regular occurrence of drought within the United States between 1895 and
2010 with approximately 14% of the country, on average (plotted by black dotted line),
experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions during any given year. Drought conditions can
persist in a region for several years, as occurred in the United States in the 1930s, 1950s, and early
2000s, and tree ring and other proxy records confirm that multiple-year droughts are part of the
long-term climate history for the United States and most other regions around the world
(Woodhouse and Overpeck,
1998; Dai et al., 2004; Jansen et al., 2007). Drought has wide-ranging impacts on many sectors of
society (e.g., agriculture, economics, ecosystems services, energy, and human health, recreation,
and water resources) and ranks among the most costly of all natural disasters. For example, in the
United States, drought affects more people than any other hazard (NSTC, 2005) and has resulted
in 14 “billion-dollar” events since 1980 totaling more than $180 billion (U.S.) in damages and
losses (NCDC, 2011). This amount represents 25% of all losses from billion-dollar weather
disasters, including hurricanes and floods. Globally, drought along with other natural disasters
affects more than 255 million people each year (Guha-Sapir et al.,2004), with an estimated $932
billion (U.S.) in losses since 2001 in the 42 countries ranked highest by the United Nations in terms
of the combination of life expectancy, education, and income (Guha-Sapir, 2011). In developing
nations, drought impacts can transcend economic losses, triggering severe famine and potentially
human mortality.
Regionally
Drought assessments prior to 1980 (especially during the instrumental period) are subject to
uncertainties as observations are sparse and access to drought data is limited. During the last two
decades, both the frequency and severity of droughts in east Africa have shown a significant
increase (Guha-Sapir et al., 2004; Meier et al., 2007; Ayana et al., 2016). The duration of droughts
and the impacted areas have also increased markedly in the region. In EA, many studies have
suggested that drought
have become more frequent and severe, with evidentiary support (e.g. Meier et al., 2007; Funk,
2012; Lyon and DeWitt, 2012; Hoell and Funk, 2013; Omondi et al., 2014; Nicholson, 2015,
2017). For example, Funk (2012) identified a large number of below-normal rainfall seasons,
which revealed more frequent droughts in EA since 1999. Nicholson (2015) concluded that a
widespread condition of well below-average rainfall occurred in EA during 1998, 2000 and 2005,
and this has condition occurred virtually every year since 2008. These droughts affect the summer
and equatorial rainfall regions of EA. Similarly, Hoell and Funk (2013) analyzed drought over EA
during 1950-2010 and suggested that the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have forced
more frequent droughts in consecutive long and short rainy seasons since the 1980s. Nicholson
(2017) reviewed the EA rainfall data and concluded that droughts have become longer and have
occurred more frequently across the rainy seasons. Based on the assessments made in most of the
recent studies in the last two decades, we conclude that droughts have become more frequent and
severe in EA. In these studies, this drought condition is attributed to various drought causing
factors, such as climate variability, anthropogenic factors or both.
In EA, there are variations in drought trends among the three rainy seasons: the boreal autumn
(October–November, i.e. the short rains season), boreal spring (March–May; i.e. the long rains
season) and boreal summer (June–September). The March–May long rains season is the primary
rainy season in EA. In this season, EA has experienced a persistent decline in rainfall during the
last 30 years (Funk et al., 2008; Lyon and DeWitt, 2012; Tierney et al., 2015). Similarly, Nicholson
(2017) concluded that the greatest changes in drought appear to have occurred during the long
rains, which have been declining over the past decades. A decline in the rains of the boreal spring
(long rains season) has had major consequences for food security, as agriculture in the region is
largely dependent on rainfall under the existing effects of climatic change (Viste et al. 2013;
Liebmann et al.2014; Nicholson 2017). Fewer studies have also considered the trends in the boreal
summer season (June-September), but these have confirmed a similar decline to that observed in
the boreal spring (Lyon and Dewitt, 2012; Viste et al., 2013). In the boreal autumn (short rains),
however, there is a general increasing tendency in rainfall (Liebmann et al., 2014; Rowell et al.,
2015; Tierney et al., 2015; Nicholson, 2017). For example, Tierney et al. (2015) projected an
increase in rainfall during the short rains season. Liebmann et al. (2014) and Rowell et al. (2015)
showed that the October– November season has become wetter i.e. the short rains have increased.
However, the increase in the short rains has exacerbated the impact of the declining long rains,
exhibiting a large variability in the region (Rowell et al., 2015). In summary, droughts are
becoming more frequent, longer and more severe in the boreal spring (long rains) andsummer in
EA, but a decrease in drought frequency is observed in the October–November (short rains)
season.
Locally
Somaliland has a high variable climate and located in a region of exposed to vulnerable the climate
change, recurrent drought situation intensified by the interaction of multiple stresses, which occurs
at various levels, and coupled with a low adaptive capacity among the population and impacted
the livelihood of rural communities in drought affected areas in Somaliland, as well as the economy
and natural environment, and it’s has resulted rural communities in drought regions, the main
source of food and income for the rural pastoral population depend on the livestock production,
and that economy of Somaliland (60_65%) from the livestock, while 60 percent of labor forces in
Somaliland involves in livestock related activities which shows 70% of the livelihood of the
population depend on the livestock Production (Development M. o., 2016).
The recurrent drought in Somaliland has also affected the environment, caused land degradation,
desertification and loss of biodiversity in the most drought affect areas are the most common result
of the drought (UNDP, 2017).
The drought across the region also reduced the trans-regional migration and sales Drought affected
communities, it’s reported 20% of these peoples cannot find their daily food requirement, in
September, 2016, Food and nutrition Analysis (FSNAU) in the FOA, registered 935,000 up to 1.1
million within six months. 320,000 children weakened due to widespread of acute
malnourishments (H.Awed, Saed Ismail, 2017).
2015, local crop production mainly the cereal, which grows in the GU session has 87% below the
average production in the previous years. The poor rain and drought condition has severely
affected the food security and livelihood of the people in the drought affected regions in
Somaliland. Researcher studies states that those last two consecutive seasons (GU and Deyr)
have significantly below average rainfall in
1.2 Problem statement
Somaliland has a bimodal rainfall distribution. The first main rainy season, GU, occurs between
April and June while the second, Deyr, is from August to November. The two dry seasons are
Jilaal and Hagaa and occur between December and March and July and August respectively. There
are three main climate zones in the country: desert, arid and semiarid. Temperatures are generally
high throughout the year, with the maximum being 36°C to 38°C in the coastal areas the drought
is a relative phenomenon which refers to times of exceptionally low total rainfall or poor
distribution of rainfall in growing sessions. According to the government the capacity to respond
the natural disasters, including the drought, the government has limited knowledge and practical
experience on building the climate resilient planning and to implement the developed drought risk
management, the government have not effective capacity to mitigate the drought impacts (MOPD,
2017).
The government responses and interventions subjected to the drought is considerable and
justifiable to weak, the government do not allocated substantial resources to drought relief, there
is no national drought policy, therefore, the drought has significant resulted the shocks at
community and national levels. The lack of both a drought policy and an operational definition of
drought have meant that public drought interventions have largely been determined by ad hoc and
sometimes political processes. In years of lower than average rainfall, relief programs have been
mounted against a background of intense lobbying by various interest groups using the
humanitarian as political interest and campaigns. In an effort to respond, a large number of
different approaches have been tried. Political pressure has also resulted in the entire country being
declared drought stricken when only parts have been affected and not all similarly.
The problem of the study raised the questions related the equity and efficiency of the recurrent
drought responses from the government of Somaliland and the long term policy and strategy that
could be used to respond the drought effectiveness, by saving the lives of the people and their
livestock, the drought has affected thousands of people and their livelihood sources in the rural
areas of Somaliland, and this has resulted large scale of crops failure and high number of livestock
to dies with extensive malnutrition and acute diseases, the drought affected community internally
immigrated across the borders of the country searching the pasture an water (Somalia F. , 2017).
The traditional mechanisms used during the drought period to reduce the risk of the drought were
weak and government institutions have limited capacity to respond the natural disasters, rural
communities have low level of education on the drought risk management, the poor coordination
amongst the government actors, NGOs, private and diaspora people were clearly visible during the
drought responses due to lack of the effective coordination and harmonized messages have resulted
large number of people to loss their livelihood sources (Nasir M.Ali,& Kedir, 2017).
1.3 Objectives of the study
General objectives
2. To identify the impact of recurrent droughts in Somaliland pastoralists
3. To identify possible overcoming strategies and policy
1.3.2. Specific objectives

investigate different stakeholder perceptions of drought occurrence and actions needed

examine the influence of rainfall, water levels and temperature on drought perception

explore the impact of policy decisions on drought management

consider the conditions under which water users' behaviors lead to adverse drought impacts
on people and ecosystems and

Draw on previous drought experiences and lay or local knowledge to evaluate water-use
conflicts, synergies and trade-offs.

1.4 Research questions
1. How droughts effect Somaliland pastoralists
2. What are the possible overcoming strategies of recurrent droughts?
1.5 importance of the study
This study will contribute knowledge about the impact of recurrent droughts in Somaliland
pastoralists and will find out possible strategies and policies to overcome these recurrent droughts
also this study will help other researchers and student who may want to do further research about
this topic and government policy and strategy developers.
Chapter two
Literature review
2.0 Introduction
This chapter discussed the literature that in one way or another relates to the study being
undertaken. It critically analyzed written sources like library-based research, internet views,
reports, theories, and other already documented information related to the topic under study.
The use of related literature helps the researcher to gain clarity on the issue under investigation
and also covers the gap of this research fill.
1. 1 theoretical literature
2.2.1 Concept of drought
Lack of rainfall for an extended period of time can bring farmers and metropolitan areas to their
knees. It does not take very long; in some locations of the country, a few rain-free weeks can spread
panic and affect crops. Before long, we are told to stop washing our cars, cease watering the grass,
and take other water conservation steps. In this situation, sunny weather is not always the best
weather.
In the desert Southwest, weeks without rain are not uncommon. However, when the weeks turn to
months, serious problems can arise. Because of the fact that much of our drinking water comes
from snowmelt, a dry winter can have serious implications in terms of how much water is available
for the following summer season. Most locations have sufficient water reservoirs to make it
through one dry winter. The real problem becomes back to back dry winter seasons, similar to
what is occurring during the 1998-2000 period of time. With two significantly below-normal
precipitation winter seasons, reservoirs are becoming low and the fire danger rises as the forests
dry out. However, summer rains can alleviate the situation, as the monsoon season typically
develops by July.
The Dust Bowl days of the 1930's affected 50,000,000 acres of land, rendering farmers helpless.
In the 1950's, the Great Plains suffered a severe water shortage when several years went by with
rainfall well below normal. Crop yields failed and the water supply fell. California suffered a
severe drought around 1970. Rainfall was below normal for 1 1/2 years, and by the time September
1970 arrived, the fire potential was extremely high and dangerous. Temperatures rose to near the
century mark and fires broke out. Losses were in the tens of millions of dollars.
The worst drought in 50 years affected at least 35 states during the long hot summer of 1988. In
some areas the lack of rainfall dated back to 1984. In 1988, rainfall totals over the Midwest,
Northern Plains, and the Rockies were 50-85% below normal. Crops and livestock died and some
areas became desert. Forest fires began over the Northwest and by autumn, 4,100,000 acres had
been burned. A government policy called "Let Burn" was in effect for Yellowstone National Park.
The result? Half of the park--2,100,000 acres were charred when a huge forest fire developed.
1.3 characteristics of drought
This report assembles information from various sources to analyses the current situation of
drought in Central Asian countries for enhancing drought risk management and increasing efforts
to develop drought preparedness plans and implement actions to reduce the impact of droughts.
It assesses drought vulnerabilities, risk management capacities, and existing policies, institutions
and practices in the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
and Turkey.
Overall, the recommendations made for these Central Asian countries and Turkey include three
broad measures:





Provide regular, timely hydro-meteorological data to provide early warning
Reconcile legal and institutional frameworks
Implement and optimize water saving techniques and technologies
Chapter three