Case study
Tình huống kinh doanh:
• Trong bối cảnh hậu Covid và người tiêu dùng duy trì thói
quen tiêu dùng quan tâm đến sức khỏe. Nhờ đó, ngành
hàng Sữa trái cây được hưởng lợi.
• Taka là một doanh nghiệp nước giải khát lớn trên thị
trường Việt Nam, nhưng doanh thu năm 2022 trong
ngành hàng này bị giảm so với năm ngoái.
• Sau khi kiểm tra dữ liệu nội bộ, phòng Kinh Doanh phát
hiện hoạt động kinh doanh vẫn đang tốt ở khu vực phía
Nam nhưng giảm ở những khu vực còn lại. Giả thuyết
đặt ra là do là sức mua người tiêu dùng của Taka ở
những khu vực này bị giảm.
Câu hỏi kinh doanh:
• TAKA cần làm gì để phục hồi tăng trưởng doanh thu
trong năm 2023?
Vai trò:
• Là một chuyên viên phân tích dữ liệu tại NielsenIQ, bạn
hãy tư vấn cho Taka về câu hỏi kinh doanh trên.
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
1
Tình hình kinh doanh bán lẻ của ngành hàng và Taka
Value Sales (Bil. VND)
WTD Distribution
VIETNAM (OFFLINE)
Value Sales (Bil. VND)
VIETNAM (OFFLINE)
JUICE MILK
TAKA
TAKA
JUICE MILK
By REGIONS
TAKA
By FLAVORS
FY 2021
FY 2022
FY 2021
FY 2022
FY 2021
FY 2022
FY 2021
FY 2022
FY 2021
FY 2022
Vietnam
5,600
6,800
3,620
3,200
50
48
Orange
1,650
2,540
1,200
800
TT Off North
1,500
1,350
1,100
900
23
15
Strawberry
1,600
1,400
1,200
900
TT Off Central
750
850
420
350
44
30
Grape
750
1200
500
700
TT Off South
2,200
2,950
1,250
1,450
30
30
Fruit Mix
740
600
500
320
MT Vietnam
1,150
1,650
850
500
50
50
Others
860
1,060
220
480
Source: NielsenIQ Retail Audit ending DEC’22
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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Vietnam economy rebounds after Covid battering, yet is expected to decelerate in 2023
Certain headwinds are anticipated in 2023 given global recession and looming inflationary pressures
VN – GDP yearly growth vs. YA
Catalysts to fragile times
“ 31.2%
18.7
Manufacturing enterprises in VN expect that their
businesses would be more difficult in Q1’23
9.1
6.6
4.1
2.7
3.5
3.5
2.8
3.2
0.6
1.8
3.2
4.5
Global economic pessimism
8.0
6.7
6.2
5.3
5.4
6.0
6.2
6.8
7.1
7.0
6.5
2.9
▪
Global economy downturn: GDP growth to slow
from +3.2% in 2022 to +2.7% in 2023(F)
▪
▪
Exports: -6.8% in Q4’22 given declining new orders
▪
Labour: 630,000+ workers impacted in Sep-Nov’22
Business: 143,200 enterprises out of the market in
2022 (+19.5% vs YA)
2.6
GDP
CPI
2023(F)
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Consumer Concerns
▪
Rising cost of livings: transportation, F&B,
renting housing
▪
Household financial concerns: 74% VN
consumers feel their worse than pre-Covid
Source: GSO – 2023(F) is upon National Assembly | IMF, Multiple local sources | Kinh tế Việt Nam 2023 nhìn từ 4 điểm nhấn vĩ mô trong quý 4/2022 (nguoiquansat.vn) | NielsenIQ 2022 Consumer Outlook Survey (Vietnam - Mar’22)
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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Consumers are expected to shift their budgets from wants to needs
Foods & Dairy is central to 2023 spending intentions while discretionary under less consumer scrutiny if price increase
VN – FMCG by Super-categories
APAC – Consumers’ states of saving
Value % Share & Value % Chg in 2022 vs YA
% respondents – “Doing this more often”
Groceries & household items to SPEND MORE this year
FMCG (17.5%)
22.1
19.8
17.7
20.9
Beer (38.7%)
18.3
NA Beverage (22.5%)
17.9
18.7
19.7
Cigarette (16.6%)
14.0
14.7
2.3
1.0
11.8
10.3
14.5
13.9
13.8
Baby Care (-6.6%)
1.7
Milk Bases (3.7%)
42%
40%
40%
Fruits & Veg.
Health & Wellness
Fresh meat
Dairy
39%
33%
Home essentials
Personal/ Beauty Care
2.2
15.3
13.5
Staple Food (5.4%)
10.7
45%
11.8
10.5
7.4
7.4
8.0
6.4
6.3
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.2
2019
2020
2021
2022
8.1
Impulse Foods (17.6%)
Home Care (16.2%)
Personal Care (11.2%)
Items to SPEND LESS/ STOP BUYING if prices rise in the next 3 months
36%
34%
Snacks and
Confectionery items
Alcoholic
beverages
Source: NielsenIQ 2023 Consumer Outlook Survey, Dec 2022 | Change in spending calculated by subtracting % of respondents who are spending less from % of respondents who are spending more
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
4
Within Milk-bases, RTDM shows good growth in 2022
VietNam - Milk Bases - Value % Share
VietNam - Milk Bases - Value % Chg YA
2021
8.2
7.5
1.0
Milk Base
47.0
48.0
SWEETENED
CONDENSED MILK
35.7
9.2
8.8
2021
2022
-4.6
1.2
MILK SYN.
HEALTHY FOOD DRINKS
3.7
4.8
READY-TO-DRINK MILK
35.6
2022
6.0
0.5
-0.6
4.0
-1.5
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
5
Consumers prefer a larger size to deal with rising prices
But for consumers who are not willing to spend, they sought out price promotions
FMCG – Volume & Unit growth 2022 vs. YA
APAC – Upsizing & Promotion
By super categories (Vol % Growth | Unit % Growth)
% respondents
Unit %
Growth
Downsizing
28%
Beer (+25 | +25)
Prefer that manufacturers
offer them a bigger value
pack/ economy size
N/A Beverage
(+21 | +19)
Cigarette
(+10 | +9)
37%
Impulse Foods
(+12 | +8)
Milk Bases
(+0 | -1)
Home Care
(+10 | +6)
Staple Foods
(-2 | -5)
Personal Care
(+8 | +2)
Baby Care
(-7 | -13)
Volume %
Growth
Total APAC value sales was
a result of price promotion
in FY21
Upsizing
Source: NIQ Advanced Analytics – Everyday Pricing Analytics & Consumer Outlook Survey – APAC (Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, & India) , June 2022 .
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
6
In APAC, omni-shoppers leads to stabilization of E-commerce
In Vietnam, MT & TT Rural remain importance to secure, along with the gradual OOH recovery benefits F&B
APAC – FMCG – Channel landscape
VN – FMCG – Channel landscape
Value % Contribution
Value % Contribution & Growth 2022 vs. YA
Value % Chg
(2022 vs 2021)
Other
7.5
20.3
7.3
21.1
6.9
21.1
64% of APAC
6.9
6.2
5.7
6.2
consumers claimed to
be omni-shoppers
TT On Rural
36.3
Online
37.3
39.9
38.2
TT Off Rural
31.1
Traditional Trade
CVS/Minimarket
Hyper/Super
17.3
23.8
2020
32.8
33.6
17.0
17.1
21.8
21.4
2021
2022
Growth mainly in: China,
Hongkong, Indonesia,
Philippines, Vietnam
Growth in SEA
markets: Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand
14.1
29.5
28
11.6
8.8
12.2
29.6
29.3
27.9
13.2
15.2
16.3
15.5
2019
2020
2021
2022
13
TT On Urban
63
TT Off Urban
12
MT Vietnam
11
Source: Retail Measurement Service 2022, CPS 2022
© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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