TRADING STRATEGIES
CONTENTS
Scatter Gun..............................................1
Vista........................................................7
BOA..........................................................9
Full Monty (FM).......................................10
Gunslinger..............................................11
MOCS.....................................................13
Lazy Lamb..............................................14
The Clint.................................................15
Scalping.................................................16
NAC........................................................19
SHS........................................................20
Nugget Nibble.........................................21
Metaltone...............................................22
Lay The Draw..........................................24
Gundulf's Gateau....................................25
FIP.........................................................26
Draw No Bet...........................................27
Correct Score..........................................28
CoverS+CunderS.....................................29
Bingo's Bistrot........................................30
Adster Aperitif........................................31
Scatter Gun
Selection criteria:
When assessing matches for this strategy I check two markets first
before looking at CS.
First, I'm looking for match odds of no lower than 1.8 for the favourite,
and I'm also
looking at U2.5 being around 1.9 - 2.1. If these criteria are met you will
find more times
than not that 1-1 is trading at between 7 and 8.5 and the other two at
about 11-13.
I would then usually back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the
other two for
- so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the
game is still 0-0
after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.
What can go wrong?
When assessing any Correct Score trades I think it's sensible to look at
what might go wrong
and by so doing to assess your 'danger scores'. We can then work out
how to deal with them.
The first, and most distressing, danger is the dreaded 0-0!
The easiest way I've found to alleviate this score is by backing and laying
the same amount
pre-match trying to make 1 or 2 ticks. By trading pre-match your stake
itself is safe the only danger is that the price moves against you rather than for you.
My experience shows
that if you back 0-0 with about 30 to 45 minutes to go you will usually
get at least one tick movement.
There are no guarantees - but often I can get between £35 and £50
'free' sitting on 0-0.
In-play you can either just leave your money sitting on 0-0 or lay some
of it off as the price of 0-0 drops.
There are only really two other main dangers; first that no goal is scored
until very late in the game
and the 1-1 price doesn't come in enough to lay it off profitably, the
second that two goals come
very early in the game resulting, again, in insufficient price movements.
An absolute goalfest
is always a possiblity, if you are nervous about that why not look at
taking some cover in the U/O goal markets?
In-play trading
There are a number of ways this strategy can be traded in-play. In an
ideal world the game
would play out thus: dogs score first, bringing the 1-1 in. Favourites
equalise at about 60 minutes enabling a green of 1-1 to cover all stakes and give a profit on all scores.
Then you can either
green up across the board, or wait for a 1-2 or 2-1. At this stage you are
effectively
laying the draw with absolutely no downside! If you'd had the foresight
to back 2-2 as well as
the other scores you'd be laughing all the way to the bank if 2-1 or 1-2
comes
before the 80th minute! That's the ideal - and they happen surprisingly
often.
There are danger points to consider and you need to have a plan...
Two quick goals bringing the score to 0-2 or 2-0 can be tricky as two
thirds of your trade
is gone in a flash. There's little you can do here - except to hedge your
remaining bet and walk away
- or you could stand firm if you're prepared for the fact that 3-0 or 0-3
(or staying the same until the end)
will lose your entire stake. Another precaution might be to take a small
bet on the Next Goal market or if those goals are early in the game you could lay O2.5 goals at a very
low price to guard
against the game staying the same.
The game is 0-0 at half time...and you have no 0-0 cover as discussed
above.
Two choices really - hedge for a small loss or stand firm and hope for
goals second half.
You could consider backing 0-0 1-0 0-1 maybe to cover your stakes...
use the 'what-if' on BF
to see how to stake - but it will eat a lot of your potential profit!
The game is 0-0 at 80 mins and you have no 0-0 cover - consider
hedging for a larger loss,
and maybe lay 0-0 for the red amount - it obviously increases your
exposure
but if the game is won 1-0 or 0-1 puts you in a scratch position.There
are other banana skins but the beauty of this trade, when it works, is that the return is generally
pretty good.
SUMMARY
·Evenly matched games - home side no lower than 1.8 U2.5 around
evens
·Set an amount of money / % of bank you are prepared to LOSE -
work the rest of your plan out with that figure in mind.
·Try to get some free money on 0-0 pre-match
·Stakes should be around a straight dutch on 1-1 1-2 2-1
·0-0 25 - 30 mins put a small amount on 2-2
·If a goal is scored I would usually try to lay half my total stakes on the 11 scoreline
UNLESS the dog scores against the run of play
·1-1 is where the paydirt starts. Green completely on 1-1 - will probably
give an overall green on all scores.
Then you can either let the other 2/3 ride for a while, or hedge all bets
and go down the pub / move on to the next game!
·0-0 HT - a) hedge for small loss or b) stand firm or c) cover 0-0 1-0 0-1
·0-0 80 mins hedge for larger loss (unless 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 covered) and
maybe lay 0-0 to cover that loss..
The most important thing to remember is this:
If a trade goes against you - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE to reduce /
minimise your liabilities and losses.
Don't sit there like a rabbit in the headlights - think outside the box - are
there any other markets that might come to your rescue?
Staking:
Back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for
- so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the
game is still 0-0
after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.
Vista
Description: LAYING DRAW + LAY UNDER 1.5 + LAY UNDER 2.5
* NOTE: you can equally apply the same principle if the score is 1-1
around the 65-70min mark
LAY THE DRAW + LAY UNDER 3.5 + LAY UNDER 4.5
When the score is 0-0 around 65 mins and the M Odds draw is around
2s
We are looking for at least two goals in 2nd half goal to achieve a profit.
1-0: You win on the LTD but lose on the other two lays
1-1 You win on the Under 1.5 LAY if matched but lose on the other two
markets
(although depending on timing you can reduce red or hedge for green
on Under 2.5 )
2-0 /0-2: You win on LTD and Under 1.5 LAY (if matched) but lose on
Under 2.5 LAY
(although depending on timing you can reduce red or hedge for green
on Under 2.5 )
2-1/1-2/3-0/0-3: Jackpot as you win on all 3 markets
Final score 0-0 is a 100% loss
Staking:
LAY THE DRAW @ 2.0 £13
LAY UNDER1.5 @ 1.14 £50
LAY UNDER2.5 @ 1.06 £100
What if No goal:
You lose 100% of your stake..........in the above staking suggestion that
equals £26
What if one goal:
You win £13 on the LTD lay
You lose £7 on Under 1.5 LAY
You lose £6 on Under 2.5 LAY
What if two goals:
You win £13 on the LTD lay - If score is 2-0 or 0-2 OR You lose £13 if 1-1
You win £50 on Under 1.5 LAY
You lose £6 on Under 2.5 LAY
What if three or more goals:
You win £13 on the LTD lay
You win £50 on Under 1.5 LAY
You win £100 on Under 2.5 LAY
* 2-2 final score and you lose £13 on LTD but win on the other two
markets
BOA
Description: Backing draw & Over 3.5
When the score is 1-1 at HT or 70 mins at the latest
We are looking for an early 2nd half goal so that we ca reduce some of
the red on Over3.5. You can let the trade run by doing nothing at this
point and hope for another goal to secure the win on the Over3.5 bet. If
this fourth goal makes the score 2-2 then you have hit the jackpot by
winning on both markets.
Staking:
In a relatively evenly matched contest the draw & Over3.5 odds will be
about the same - 2.40 - 2.70
BACK both for £10 each
What if No goal:
On 70 mins if still 1-1 you hedge the Match Odds market for around £5
green. If game ends 1-1 / 2-1 / 1-2 your total loss is £5
What if one goal
Reduce red by at least 50% on Over 3.5
Full Monty (FM)
4 or more shots on target we Lay Under 2.5, Back 0-0.
Lay Under 2.5 at max 1.28, Back 0-0 to cover the red for 75-100% of the
Under 2.5 side.
IF game still 0-0 when draw hits 2s, then Lay the Draw for the red on the
Under 2.5 so 1 goal will end as a small loss. 0-0 FT slightly bigger loss.
Looking for 2 goals between 46 and 76 mins.
Stakes
Lay Under 2.5 at 1.22 to 1.28 for £50 or £100
Back 0-0 for £3 or £6 based on above stakes
Game remains 0-0 then LTD for £11 to £22, (green should cover the
Under 2.5 red)
Set the Scanner up to find 0-0 games then check Bet365 for their Inplay stats for that game. 4 or more SOT and a quick look at recent
results. IF positive jump on before teams come back out.
Ideal outcome: Two early second half goals we can green the 2.5 up
for a big profit. 1 early goal you can reduce the 2.5 Unders red or
eliminate to leave a free trade.
Worst outcome: A goal just before placing the LTD at 2s will mean
the Under 2.5 doesn't go out that high but enough to scratch/take out a
small loss.
0-0 FT you lose on the Under 2.5 plus the LTD but profit on the 0-0.
With more goals scored second half than first this type of trade will do
very well in the English leagues. Best to use the Scanner to find 0-0
games and over the HT break check the above for clarification before
jumping on. Many use a Half Monty which is similar but involves Laying
Under 1.5 at 1.40 max, LTD same time, 0-0 cover optional. Most goals
are scored from 76 to 90 mins, (plus Fergie time) than any other 15
minute period making this a profitable trade to use.
Gunslinger
Selection criteria
If Team A is one goal ahead and in your estimation an equaliser is
probable you LAY Team A AND you LAY the current score. If possible
the CS lay should cover the M/O lay. It is, therefore, likely to be a trade
you do in the second half. If Team B score both lays come in, and you
can either green the M/O lay or take the red out and let it run.
If Team A is two goals ahead, do the same thing, the key difference this
time is that it is more likely that you'll feel comfortable matching the
liability on M/O with your CS lay as the numbers involved will be that
much more acceptable. The action after a goal is as above.
In both cases a goal to Team A leaves a scratch or small loss, whereas a
goal to Team B will result in some kind of profit with the opportunity of
a big profit.
Staking
You obviously need a plan in the event of no goals! Stake within your
comfort zone and take the odd 'double whammy' on the chin; you
might favour a time or 'red' limited trade.
Two examples
•
1) Team A is 2-0 up. LAY leading team for £100 at 1.02 and LAY 2-0
for £20 at 1.64. Total exposure: £14.80. Fav scored to make it 3-0.
So £20 win minus £2 M/O lay. Profit = £18
2) Team A is 1-0 up. LAY leading team @ 1.18 for £50 and LAY 1-0
at 7.2 for £20 ... total exposure: £133 (this was a bit sticky, and not for
the faint of heart )
You may want to have a maximum odds range with which you (& your
bank) feels comfortable. Usually, 1-0 around 55-60mins will be @ 4.0 or
less
Team B equalise: You can either
Take out the red in Match odds & let trade run and hope it stays 1-1 or
dog score again
•
Green up the Match Odds by backing fav or lay the draw
Choose games where you think there will be more goals. This is
essentially a 2nd half trade and stats consistently show us that more
goals are scored in 2nd half of games across all leagues.
Remember: Place your Correct Score Lay FIRST followed by the Match
Odds lay!
MOCS
Selection criteria
Back on fave at 2.30 minimum (home fave unless Bet365 stats are very
strong in favour of away fave)
Back on Overs at 2.60 minimum
Some cover on low scores, 0-1, 1-1, 1-2 to dog, (0-0 too if more
comfortable).
Stakes?
Same stakes for Match Odds and Overs, say £20 for example. Cover on
Correct Score to dog should be £10-£14 in total, say £3 on 0-1, £5 on 11, £3 on 1-2, £3 on 0-0 (or 2-2).
CS cover should be 40-50% cover on red on the other 2 markets.
Many of these games will occur 15-20 mins In-play and Bet365 In-play
stats can be used to get a feel for a game and to gauge Shots on Target,
Corners etc.
Ideal outcome: Home win to fave and a score of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 etc. 12 would also profit in 2 of the 3 markets.
Worst outcome: 0-2 to away dog late on, (would advise covering it at
some point if game is 0-1 around 70 mins.) 0-0 if no cover. These are
your ONLY 2 big dangers.
Goal to fave you can reduce red or let it run. Then if goes to 1-1 you can
top this up knowing 2-1 or 1-2 would be decent ££££.
This will work very well finding games using the In-play Scanner. Plenty
of French games will reach these prices within 10 mins after kick off.
Lazy Lamb
The ‘Lazy’ is probably the closest thing we’ve got to a ‘set and go’
strategy for trading strong favourites. It involves backing certain scores
in the Correct Score market and then laying an odds on favourite in the
Match Odds market.
Returns are relatively low, but in return, it is usually a trade requiring
very little tweaking in play.
Selection criteria:
The only selection criterion is an odds on favourite, so much the better
if that is also the home side. The more heavily odds on they are the
better as well!
This strategy can also be employed in-play when the favourite has taken
the lead by 1 goal or more. It is safer to to use in the 2nd half as you will
need less scorelines to cover in the CS market
Method:
Assuming favourites are the home team, dutch back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0
and 3-1 in Correct Score. Then lay the favourites in Match Odds for your
total stake. Easy! If the match finishes with one of those scorelines you
make a small green, if the underdog wins or the game is drawn it is a
scratch trade.
DANGERS
The only dangers to this trade are the 3-2 and Any Unquoted scorelines
– so you might need to cover these in play by either backing them or by
laying u3.5 or u4.5 goals.
The Lion Lazy:
A variation of the Lazy Lamb for those whose risk / reward threshold
allows a slightly riskier trade. A favourite trading at 1.6 or less should
really be expected to a) win the game and b) score at least two goals.
That is a bold statement, but is the premise for this variation.
Selection criteria:
As above, but ideally favourite 1.6 or lower.
METHOD:
Again assuming home team are favourites back 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in
Correct Score. This can either be dutched, or you might decide to
weight it n favour of 3-0 or 3-1 if you are confident about goals coming.
Lay favourites in Match Odds for half the Correct Score stake (optional –
alternative for an even riskier trade is to lay favourites at 1-0!)
DANGERS
1-0 is now added to the problem scores list, but you are also still
exposed to 3-2 and AU, and to the dog scoring first. The latter is a
bigger problem, of course, if you have elected not to lay the favourite
for 50% of CS stakes.
The Clint
A variation on CoverS. Back Over 2.5, Under 1.5 + back 1-1, 0-0, 2-1
(sometimes split 1-1 and 2-0 to fave 50-50 staking)
+ Scalp Under 1.5 (or back it for newcomers)
Selection criteria:
Choose games where you think will be goals with 1-1 as cover. Over 2.5
should be 1.90 min to back. 2.0 or more is preferable.
With certain games if you feel 2-0 is a strong possibility split the 1-1 and
2-0 cover, ie £5 and £5 or £10 and £10.
Staking:
Back Over 2.5 £35/£70
1-1 £5/£10 (2-0 optional)
0-0 £2/£4
2-1 £3/£6
Back Under 1.5 for £10 to £12/£20 to £24
If you can Scalp Under 1.5 and have that covered it leaves you in a very
strong position.
Scalping
If the Scatter Gun is a handy way to rob a dime store, Scalping is the
Magnum 44
that will help you rob the bank. An essential weapon in the trader`s
armoury it
is advised to learn this technique thoroughly. It offers instant cover
against any
liabilities you have on any trade.
Selection criteria:
The following markets are the best in our opinion:
Under 1.5/2.5
Current correct score
Current next score
Draw in match odds
The under 1.5 is a personal fave for scalping. On an average game the
under 1.5 price will be around 3.6 to back. By half time this price will
halve if the score is 0-0, in fact the under 1.5 will be the same, (or near
as) at half time as the starting price of the under 2.5. So let's consider
this...........if it starts at 3.6 then it will drop around 40 ticks per 10 mins
on average to reach it's 1.8 at half time.
So how is the best way to use this information?
The following are % of goals scored in the first 15 minutes this season.
Premier 11%
C/ship
13.6%
Spain
10.6%
France
11.4%
Italy
14%
Germany 14.8%
(Above foreign figures for their top leagues only)
So we’re looking on average around 12.5% there will be a goal in the
first 15 minutes which equates to 1 game in 8.…………Which is pretty
good in our favour!
What else helps with scalping?
Live games that you are watching are a must! Trading blind is far too
dangerous. How do you know where the ball is? How do you know what
is happening in the game? Have there been many chances? To trade
blindly really should be avoided. Even streamed matches have various
delays of 10 seconds to 3 minutes………….
Look for the gaps. As we can see here with a little under 2 hours to the
match there are
gaps already. This will be similar once the game goes in play…………
Whilst trading a live game on Friday with regards to the under 1.5
various tips were given out to the chat members. The game was an
African Nations game and the game was about 5 minutes old and score
was still 0-0. The price on the under 1.5 was 3.20. A back was submitted
at 3.20 which was quickly matched and the lay was instantly put on at
3.10, 2 ticks lower. This was taken within 30 seconds at a point of the
game where the ball was in the goalkeepers hands and was safe. There
was very little money in the queue so the lay bet was going to be taken
quickly as it was at the front of the queue.
Then resubmitted at 3.05 to back after spotting very little money below
this and big gaps in the market. Once taken the lay side again was
submitted at 2.94 and taken within a minute.
Lastly the price from 2.90 to 2.54 took about 45 seconds and I was in
there for that as well
So in summary:
First 15 minutes are safest.
Look for the gaps, try for better prices and once bet taken instantly
resubmit on lay side 2 or 3 ticks lower.
When the price is over 3 the drops are in .5s so using £50 stakes you
will make £2.50 per tick made or £1 for £20 stakes which is 2.5 times
better than when the price drops below 3s.
IF you do get caught you’re not totally out of it as 2 goals are needed for
you to lose your stake unlike scalping the current correct score where a
goal will lose your entire stake. IF this happens choices are to trade out
for a loss when market settles or back bigger scores leaving it open or
lastly waiting for it to drop before laying off for a smaller loss………..
By being at the front of the queue you will be matched quicker.
Whilst liquidity is important in any market, gaps and bets matched
quickly happens a lot more regularly for the under 1.5.
Scalping under 2.5
A safer method where a goal won’t be as costly but the drops of course
will not be as quick. In the first 10 minutes of a game drops can be
anything up to 25 ticks……….
Gaps are not as apparent due to more liquidity and the unders scalping
is a favourite for many traders.
Scalping the current draw price in match odds
There used to be a premise where in a game where the score was 0-0
those that used a well known lay the draw trading method would be
offloading around 60 to 65 minutes and the 0-0 price would drop
sharply……….Whether this still holds weight is anyone’s guess although it
is true that a lot of ‘draw layers’ will trade out around this period and
the price will come crashing in. Something to look out for, but again live
pictures with a feel for the game is recommended.
Scalping the 0-0
This can pay handsome dividends, more so when the price is over 10s
and a £20 back and lay 1 tick profit will give you £10 green on the 0-0
scoreline. Scalping early on into a game is recommended for this
reason as well as mentioned above, ie the lack of goals being scored in
this timeframe………..But of course getting caught on 0-0 will lose your
stakes. Perhaps consider using it with a back on the 2-0 and 0-2
scorelines to give you some insurance in case of a goal.
Scalping the 1-0 and 0-1
Beauty of this is both prices will come in for majority of first half/a goal
is scored. And if done simultaneously if you are caught you will lose on
one but there’s a good chance the price on the other will come in to
allow a hedging off………
Conclusion
Scalping is a great way of giving profits or using it as insurance on
another trade within that game.
If you’re new to scalping try smaller stakes and learn to nip in and out,
try and get in and out asap. Less time you’re in less risk of being caught.
Make sure you have one eye on the tv so you know where the ball is in
play.
Look for the gaps and where the amounts are small.
Soon as your back bet is taken submit on lay side straight away.
Being at the front of the queue means less time and less risk with an
open trade.
NAC
We lay Over 2.5 and back Over 3.5 with some CS cover....generally (small
on 2-1) 3-1, 2-2 and AUQ
Criteria:
Strong home side trading up to 1.50 who score but also concede. We
want goals!
Arbing one market off against the other. Backing at bigger price and
laying off at lower price on other market.
Ideally we want 4 goals in the game so we hit the jackpot from Over 3.5
as well profit from 3-1, 2-2 or AUQ. Away dog scores first we have 2-2 as
cover.
Other scores can be backed in conjunction with back over 3.5 as goals
go in. 0-3, 1-3, 2-3 are very unusual with such a strong home favourite.
Look for the top solid sides who score and concede. You're looking for
3-1, 2-2, AUQ as potential results.
Staking:
BACK Under 2.5 at 2.2 plus for £10. BACK Over 3.5 at 2.4 plus for £15.
Back 3-1, 2-2, 2-1, AUQ for a total of £20. (Spread the green.) 2-1 should
be left as scratch as you're expecting 4 or more goals. FT scores of AUQ,
3-1, 2-2 you win on 2 of the 3 markets.
SHS
When the goal comes trade out for an even green all round.
If a goal does not come then look to exit by backing the draw at a price
which gives me a
red on the draw equivalent to my original lay stake. Leaving a win to
either side at scratch.
This point seems to be arriving at around the 12 mins to go mark.
Description 2
If score is 0-0 LTD at odds of 2.20 and 1.80.
Lay £15 at 2.20, £30 at 1.80. 0-0 hits 2.20 usually between 60-65 mins.
Some prefer to drip lay the £££ in at odds of 2s, 1.50, 1.25 for even
stakes, (£25 each etc).
By doing it this way and with so many late goals you can hit the Full
Monty with a goal last kick of
the match which will yield £75 return using the above stakes.
Selection criteria:
Check stats/H2H...and if watching the game make a judgment as to
whether
you think there will be a goal or not if current score is 0-0. 5 or more
Shots on Target around 60 minutes
is a reasonable indicator to think a goal or two will be scored.
Best avoid games where a red card has been shown already in it.
Staking:
Personal choice e.g LTD £20
If still 0-0 on 75mins then BACK draw for stake, leaving red on draw and
0 on other home or away.
If goal then back draw to hedge for a profit.
Or use other stake % as per above examples.
This strat had a strike rate of 63% last season.
Nugget Nibble
Works best with evenly matched teams in MO market.
2-2 price should be no less than 16.0
·If score is 0-0 at 30 mins - odds will be around 6.0 if pre-match odds
were 11.0 LAY enough to leave small red on CS except large green on 2-2.
·If goal is scored before 30mins then LAY 2-2 to green up or at least
leave 0 on
all scores except large green on 2-2
Selection criteria:
Evenly matched teams in Match odds market
Staking:
0-0 50% of 2-2 stakes BACK 0-0 £20 BACK 2-2 £40
Metaltone
1.) Back the current draw odds for 50% of your initial lay bet
2.) Lay the team that scored for 75% of your initial lay bet
This will greatly reduce your liabilities and give you a big green on the
team that is behind.
Should the team that is behind score an equaliser, lay them off so you
profit a bit on
each result (NOTE: you won't be able to equalise the profit, so you'll
have to play
around with a number that works. Usually, I lay for the liability I have on
the Draw
which means I break even if there is a draw and make a profit if one of
the teams goes on to win)
By way of example, let's say the odds to lay the draw are 3.75 and I put
$20 on it,
giving me a liability of $55 on the draw and green of $20 on either team
winning.
he underdog scores and their lay odds go down to 1.9 but the draw
odds (to back) only go up to 3.65.
I back the draw @ 3.65 for $10 (50% of $20) and I lay the leading team
@ 1.90 for $15 (75% of $20).
I now have a $13.65 liability on the draw, a $3.50 liability on the team
that scored and a green of $25
on the team that is behind (which is hopefully the favourite). Wort-case
scenario is that
I will lose $3.50, because if there is an equaliser I will be able to lay off
the $25 green
to make a guaranteed profit/break-even on any result.
s has been suggested the trick is to pick the right games. Look at teams
statistics on SoccerStats.com,
particularly their head-to-head, but also their recent form as indicated
by their last 8 games.
Also look for few draws in their H2H and in their recent form and teams
who tend to
score in the first half which you can see from these stats too.
Selection criteria:
Look for games where one of the teams is below 2.00,
the other teams is 4.00 or above and the draw is no higher than 3.75
Staking: Personal choice but adhere to the % advised
Lay The Draw
You LAY the draw and BACK at a higher price after a goal is scored.
Beware that if the dog scores first the price may not move at all in your
favour.
It is essential in this trade to have a predetermined exit point
either for taking a profit or accepting loss.
It is an extremely good strategy to practice the key element in trading:
Namely, taking the profit when the opportunity presents itself AND
accepting a loss if the trade is not going in your favour.
Selection criteria:
With an average odds of 3.6 on the draw in most games, your liabilities
are high.
Choose match selection carefully!
Staking: Personal choice
LAY DRAW @ 3.6 £50
After first goal
BACK @ 5.4 £33....
Hedged profit = £17
0-0 after 65mins
BACK DRAW @ 2.0
£80
Hedged loss = £30
Dog scores first please see the Metaltone strat.
Gundulf's Gateau
Named after one of the 10th century`s most successful traders,
Gundulf,
while not occupied with deflowering lasses from Whitley Bay, used this
strategy to add
more booty to his Betfair account.
LAY heavy fav in the HALF TIME MATCH ODDS market pre match and
exit the trade when the BACK odds are higher, enabling you to green
up.
The rate at which the odds move in this market is greater than seen in
the regular MO market.
Bigger profits - especially if the dog scores first - but less time to recover
should the trade
go against you. Look to exit trade after 15/20 mins
Selection criteria:
Favourites should be less than 2.0 in the HALF TIME market.
More than this then your liabilities could be quite severe
Staking: Personal choice
Example: when still 0-0 after 15/20 mins
LAY FAV @ 1.75 £100
BACK @ 2.0 £87.50
25 tick profit = £12.50
Example: 0-1 to the dog
a) Let the trade run and hope the fav does not equalise or even score 2
or more in the time left remaining. Very risky...and greedy!
b) BACK the fav to leave equal green on all 3 outcomes Home/Away/Draw. The easiest of the 3 options
c) BACK 1-1 & 2-1. A little more complicated as it depends on the prices
currently available
FIP
Back Under 2.5 and LAY Under 4.5 with a couple of scores in between
(which come later)
The objective is to hedge the Under 2.5 market with enough green to
cover your liability on Under 4.5 lay. It is generally possible to do this
after 20mins.
Generally look for games where recent results have had goals and or
past head to heads.
No early goal come out of 2.5 at latest 15 mins and leave the free
green on Under 2.5 goals which will cover around 75% of 4.5 liability.
Goals then go in you can Back the 4.5 as the price drifts out.
Goal in first 15 wait for 2.5 market to settle then lay most off leaving
small green on Under 2.5 and red on Over 2.5. Then Back small on 2-1,
3-1 if say score is 1-0 as they're the danger scores...........
Selection criteria:
Best when Under 2.5 is no lower than 1.90 and Under 4.5 can be layed
for no greater than 1.18
Staking:
Work on a 40% basis
e.g Back Under 2.5 £50
LAY Under 4.5 £125
As you know we're always trying to test/improve each strategy we use.
Whilst the FIP has had very good success the big problem with having
Under 2.5 and lay of 4.5 goals is what do you do if the score is 1-1 or 20 at half time?
You're close to losing on 2.5 market and cant profit enough from 4.5 to
win on the trade.
Well we're looking for games that have goals as you know.
So by backing a couple of scores too it covers you for those scorelines
at half time.
For example, strong home side we back under 2.5 for say £25 at 2s. We
lay 4.5 at 1.17 for £125.
So IF the game ends under 2.5 we have as good as scratch trade. But
let's have some cover on scores over 2.5 like 2-1, 3-0 or 3-1. How much?
I would say around £10 to £12, so £5 each on 2 scores.
Idea being they will cover the 2.5 loss and can be topped up or the 4.5
can be backed when say 3 goals have been banged in.
Draw No Bet
Like the Asian Handicap this market removes the draw from the three
possible outcomes home win/away win/draw
Consequently the odds on both teams are less than the odds in the MO
market.
If you BACK Team A and they win....you win the bet
if match is a draw then your stake is refunded. You don`t win and you
don`t lose
If Team B win you lose your stake
Note: DNB can be traded in-play. But beware of often poor liquidity so
chose high profile games where there is at least £20K in the market
Selection criteria:
Teams to be evenly priced in MO market
Staking:
You can take insurance on CS pre match
Example: BACK Team A DRAW NO BET @ 2.0 £100
BACK Team B Correct Score.... e.g 0-2 £25 AND 1-2 for £25
Tip: The odds on Draw No Bet should be identical to 0 on the Asian
Handicap market. Sometimes you will notice a difference in these 2
markets and this presents an opportunity to execute an arbitrage trade
Correct Score
All other football markets are linked to the Correct Score market.
Some prefer to select just one scoreline and hope for the best and
build their trade around that.
Others use 5 or more scorelines with a bias towards higher or lower
scores
The important point to bear in mind is that you may often have to back
other scores or
top up existing scores as the match progresses
Selection criteria:
Take the middle ground and always include 1-1 as one of your
selections particularly
if you have chosen a match with evenly priced teams.
Staking:
If you select multiple scorelines then leave more green on the middle
scores,
e.g 2-0/1-2/1-1. This will help when you begin to lay inplay
CoverS+CunderS
BACK 3 or perhaps 4 of the following: 0-0/0-1/1-0/0-2/2-0/1-1
CunderS: BACK UNDER 2.5 goals + BACK 3 or perhaps 4 of the following
1-2/2-1/2-2/3-1/3-0/AUQ
Selection criteria: Odds on either Over on Under should not be
less than 1.90
Staking: Decide what your prematch preference is regarding the
result.
Weight your stakes accordingly
Example:
BACK Unders @2.0 £100
BACK CS high scores for a combined (dutched) total of £70
In this case you are favouring Under 2.5 as the most likely result
Bingo's Bistrot
When there is a very strong fav BACK either of the above scorelines early in the day!
Late money arriving into the market just before KO often will drive the
price down. Keep an eye on the Over 2.5 market since if that is coming
in then thei higher scorelines will also steam.
1st scenario:
If the odds have moved in your favour before KO then simply LAY at the
new lower odds either with the same stakes as your BACK bet to leave
you with a free green on the score(s) you have backed. Alternatively you
can hedge for an equal green over the whole CS market.
2nd scenario:
You can simply leave the green & red on the CS market as it is and hope
the fav scores first which will mean the odds on 2-0 & 3-0 will shorten.
hedge for an overall profit or leave a free green on those scores and
zero on the rest.
However, the clear danger is if the dog scores first. You will have lost
your money on 2-0 & 3-0.
So we need to take out insurance against this possibilty.
LAY the favourite in the Next Goal market. The odds will be roughly the
same as the Match Odds. The LAY stake should be at least equal to the
red on the CS market which will then result in a scratch trade.
Alternatively, you can LAY for slightly higher stakes than the red on the
C market, thus gaining you a profit should the dog score first.
Adster Aperitif
Description : BACK 2-1 scoreline, preferably to home side,
Insurance optional. ( don't bother unless sticking £50 on 2-1 then put
£10 on 0-0)
For £20 or £30 just hedge at HT if 0-0 for loss of half initial stake
If goals go in either lay fav in NG market, BACK under 1.5 or just LAY 2-1
for green
Alternative if price not available before KO .Back in play at 11s or more
to home fave for £25, £5 on 2-2
optional £5 on 0-0
IF game is 0-0 at 60-65 mins apply the SHS and only the game ending 00 will damage you.
Selection Criteria: Match Odds between 1.60 to 2.10; 2-1
minimum odds of 10s
Staking: £50 and above take insurance of £10 on 0-0; Staking less
than above exit trade for a loss at HT if 0-0