Received: 15 November 2018
Accepted: 7 December 2018
DOI: 10.1002/hbe2.112
SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE
Mobile phones: Impacts, challenges, and predictions
Arlene Harris | Martin Cooper
DYNA, LLC, Del Mar, California
Correspondence
Martin Cooper, DYNA, LLC, 100 Via de la
Valle, Del mar, CA 92014.
Email: mcooper@dynallc.com
The mobile phone is stimulating one of the most important technological revolutions in human
history. This article first presents impacts, challenges, and predictions of mobile phone use. It
first indicates that the impact of the mobile phone on society has been predominantly positive
while the mobile phone has certain negative attributes. It then discusses multiple ways to overcome mobile technology challenges (e.g., new radio technologies and specialized devices optimized for medical, educational, or “Internet of things” applications). The authors predict that, in
the two or three more generations, mobile phones use will have exciting advances to achieve
the full benefits, especially in the area of healthcare, education, industry, daily life, learning, and
collaborations, which will be more effective, productive, and creative.
KEYWORDS
mobile technology, multimedia, performance
The mobile phone is stimulating one of the most important technolog-
to whomever they wish. Beyond that, the mobile phone is an invalu-
ical revolutions in human history. This statement is not hyperbole.
able tool that can entertain, educate, improve safety, and add conve-
There are more mobile phones in use today than there are people, but
nience to our lives.
measuring quantity alone trivializes the importance of the mobile
As with every disruptive technology, mobile phones have nega-
phone to those who rely on it. Surveys have shown that people would
tive attributes as well. Perhaps we first realized this in 1989 when
rather eat less than give up their mobile phone. People who forget
mobile phones first rang in movie theaters. While some may have
their phone at home will return to retrieve it but would elect to move
been annoyed or angered, we were dismayed. Our abiding belief in
on without their wallet. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that a
the potential of the mobile phone blinded us to the ways in which it
mobile phone is an integral part of a person, an extension of her or his
could be antisocial. And, of course, ringing in a movie theater or con-
personality.
cert hall was not the only annoyance.
And yet, the mobile phone revolution is just beginning. Simple
The first commercial portable mobile phones became available in
“feature phones” have contributed to lifting over a billion people out
October 1983. Why did it take so long to discover their antisocial
of severe poverty in Africa. Simple add-ons are bringing professional
aspects? Initially, most mobile phones were wired into automobiles.
medical treatment to remote villages in Mexico. In India, e-commerce
The only handheld units—and we use the word “handheld” loosely—
is raising the standard of living for millions. In developed countries, we
were Motorola DynaTACs, which weighed over a kilogram and were,
are only beginning to understand how much smartphones will improve
for obvious reasons, called “the brick.” People were unlikely to carry
our lives.
the DynaTAC into a concert hall. Since that cell phone sold for
$4,000, the equivalent of about $10,000 today, chances of even
encountering one were slim. In 1989, Motorola introduced the Micro-
1 | IMPACTS
TAC, a flip phone which by modern standards was large, but at
12.3 oz was small enough to fit into a coat pocket. The MicroTAC was
By far, the greatest contribution to society of the mobile phone is in
affordable enough to become popular.
improved productivity. People act more efficiently when they are con-
In the early days, the cost of a call was high: 50 cents a minute.
nected, especially when they are connected whenever, wherever, and
In the U.S., customers paid for incoming calls, making them reluctant
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
© 2019 The Authors. Human Behavior and Emerging Technologies Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Hum Behav & Emerg Tech. 2019;e112.
https://doi.org/10.1002/hbe2.112
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/hbe2
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2 of 3
HARRIS AND COOPER
to give out their cell phone number. As prices for service fell, espe-
• People are starting to collaborate in ways that were not even dreamt
cially after the assignment of more channels in the early 1990s,
about 10 years ago; the capacity of mobile-phone-enabled collabo-
incoming calls and their related annoying alerts became more promi-
ration to topple governments has already been demonstrated.
nent. Consequently, smaller handheld units and the slow reduction of
usage charges started to change people's expectations—cellphones
were becoming even more useful than fixed phones. We started to
3 | PREDICTIONS
see—or rather, hear—phones in movie theaters and concert halls.
The mobile phone alone does not make people rude. Polite peo-
We predict a world in which the mobile phone makes the most
ple learned to turn their ringers off in the concert hall and to speak in
advanced medical technology available to all, as it helps solve the
muted voices in crowded areas. In Japan, for example, using a mobile
dilemma of a healthcare system focused on curing diseases rather than
phone in a railway car will earn a sharp rebuke from the conductor.
preventing them.
Society ultimately learns how to accommodate disruptive technology,
so we rarely hear phones ring at the movies today.
All in all, the impact of the mobile phone on society has been
predominantly positive. This impact has occurred mostly with the
We predict a society in which mobile-phone-enhanced education
occurs 24 hr a day everywhere—not just in the classroom; in which
students are educated in stimulating ways; in which the knowledge of
the world is available to all.
two simplest mobile phone technologies: talk and text. These sim-
We predict an industrial society in which hierarchical organiza-
ple activities have profoundly changed the lives of billions. One
tions give way to collaborative self-organized entities in continuous
touching example is that of a poor woman in a village in India who
communications with one another.
obtains microfinancing to buy a cell phone and service. She then
We predict a technological revolution in which the wireless tech-
offers, at a nominal price, the use of her personal phone to farmers
nologies we espouse become either invisible, transparent, or intuitive,
in her village to call the neighboring villages to find the best mar-
with the sole function of serving us as they make our lives better, and
kets for their produce. Everybody wins! The woman, the farmers,
hopefully simpler.
and the customers who end up with fresher produce at better
prices.
We are especially sensitive to the gender issue that affects the
future of the mobile phone as it does everything else in our society.
We predict a new education paradigm in which students wirelessly connected to the Internet learn in the real world, and where the
role of the teacher is elevated to counseling and customizing the education of students.
We know that most mobile phone and application engineers are men.
Wireless technology, the mobile phone, and all its derivatives will
This imbalance has neglected women's sensibilities and needs regard-
not be the sole catalyst for energizing these revolutionary advance-
ing phone design. In some developing countries, women often do not
ments. Nor will wireless technology solve the social, legal, and regula-
have access to the family phone. We fervently hope that a more edu-
tory barriers that must be overcome. It is our fervent hope, however,
cated populace will realize that addressing women's needs is not only
that the promise of a technological solution is so compelling that the
socially responsible but profitable. As you will see in our predictions
bureaucrats and bigots will fall by the wayside and lawyers will actu-
for the future mobile phones and applications, they will have a critical
ally facilitate progress. We further point out that the first phase of
role in solving gender-related problems.
the wireless revolution took more than a human generation to
evolve. It will take two or three more generations to achieve the full
benefits we predict. But progress, as you will clearly observe in this
2 | C H A L L EN G E S
journal, is already happening; it will be continuous and relentless, and
there will be incremental benefits all along the way.
We are still in the early days of mobile phone development. Only a
Some readers may find our predictions overly optimistic. I urge
small fraction of the mobile phone's potential has been unlocked.
those readers to dive into and contribute to this Journal. We want
Services, especially Internet access, are too costly, as are the phones
you to become part of the revolution.
themselves. Smartphones try to do all things for all people but do
Finally, we cannot overemphasize the importance of the new
none optimally. Mobile phones are designed as mass-market com-
form of collaboration the mobile phone engenders. It is now pos-
modities without regard for the fact that people are unique and that
sible for people to communicate with each other in numerous
different people benefit from phones designed for their unique
ways, independent of location and time. Communications can be
needs.
instantaneous or delayed. People can talk, text, email, Tweet, post
Each of these deficiencies is being addressed in our society in the
following ways:
on Facebook, Instagram, and video conference cheaply and conveniently. This is only the beginning. Most of these are crude, firstgeneration tools that will evolve and integrate into powerful facili-
• New radio technologies are increasing the capacity of existing
systems and reducing service costs.
• Specialized devices optimized for medical, educational, or “Internet of things” applications are appearing each day.
• Applications are starting to appear that promise to revolutionize
medicine, education, and business.
tators of efficiency and productivity. It is our expectation and
hope that this new journal of mobile-phone behavior will stimulate this revolution by enhancing the collaborative process. The
result will be a cascading explosion of creativity that revolutionizes not only the mobile-phone industry but the way we do
everything.
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HARRIS AND COOPER
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHI ES
Martin Cooper is a visionary, inventor, and
Arlene Harris is a serial entrepreneur,
inventor, and wireless pioneer. She started
her career in the radio paging business,
where she ran and created the business
systems for the largest single city paging
company in the world. She started or cofounded over a half dozen companies since
then, including GreatCall, Inc. which marketed her invention,
the Jitterbug cell phone, a device designed for those seeking
simplicity. GreatCall was purchased by BestBuy in 2018 and
has over a million subscribers. Among her accomplishments is
the creation and introduction of the concept of prepaid cellular
service, without which most cellular subscribers in the world
would be unable to use cell phones. She is the Founder and
entrepreneur who conceived of the first portable cellular telephone handset in 1973 and
led the team that developed and introduced
it. He is known as the “father of the handheld
cellular phone.” Cooper is a member of the
U.S. National Academy of Engineering from
which he received the Charles Draper Award. He is a Marconi
Prize recipient, a Prince of Asturias Laureate, and a Life Member
and centennial medal awardee of the IEEE. He presently serves
on the FCC Technology Advisory Council. Cooper has been
widely published in the wireless field. He formulated the Law of
Spectral Efficiency (Cooper's Law) that supports his view that
there is no scarcity of radio spectrum. He is an alumnus and life
trustee of the Illinois Instituter of Technology.
Chair of Wrethink, Inc., a high-tech fixed broadband company
focused on consumer privacy and helping families use technology to organize and manage personal information. Harris is a
member of the Consumer Industry Hall-of-Fame and of the
wireless History Hall-of-Fame.
How to cite this article: Harris A, Cooper M. Mobile phones:
Impacts, challenges, and predictions. Hum Behav & Emerg Tech.
2019;e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/hbe2.112