Poverty & Equity Brief Latin America & the Caribbean Uruguay April 2021 While Uruguay's poverty rate is the lowest in Latin America, with 3.2 percent of its population living on less than $5.5 (in 2011 PPP) in 2019, systematic differences in monetary and non-monetary dimensions of poverty by race, age group and residence remain important. Poverty incidence is twice as high among children and the afro-descendant population than among the overall population. The COVID-19 pandemic hit Uruguay at a time of decelerating growth and weakened conditions for the poorest 40 percent (B40). Between 2014-2019 the real per capita income for the overall population grew at a low rate (0.93 percent), which was even lower for the B40 (at 0.33 percent annually). Inequality, as measured by the Gini index, remained unchanged at 39.7 in 2019. Labor market outcomes were already frail before the onset of the pandemic with unemployment increasing from 8.3 percent in 2018 to 8.9 percent in 2019, and employment rates falling from 57.2 to 56.7 percent. With the effects of the pandemic shock, unemployment reached a maximum of 11.2 percent in October 2020. Unemployment among women has been increasing since the onset of the pandemic and may continue this trend if the difficult conditions in the hospitality industry persist (unemployment reached 8.7 and 12.6 percent among men and women in December, respectively). However, existing safety nets and increased flexibility of the unemployment insurance scheme has prevented households in the middle of the distribution from falling into vulnerability or poverty. Welfare losses in the lower end of the distribution were partly contained by increases in the benefit amounts of existing transfers, and a new transfer targeting informal workers not covered by other programs. Poverty incidence showed an incipient upward trend in 2019, with 8.8 percent of Uruguayans below the national poverty line compared with 8.1 percent in 2018 - and is estimated to have increased in 2020 by around 2 percentage points. Overall, 35,000 people are expected to have fallen under the international upper middle-income poverty line (an increase from 3.2 in 2019 to 4.2 percent in 2020). Number of Poor (thousand) Rate (%) Period 309.6 8.8 2019 3.4 0.1 2019 15.7 0.5 2019 109.2 3.2 2019 0.1 2019 0.33 2014-2019 Gini Index 39.7 2019 Shared Prosperity Premium = Growth of the bottom 40 - Average Growth 0.33 2014-2019 Annualized GDP per capita growth 0.93 2014-2019 Annualized Income Growth per capita from Household Survey 0.00 2014-2019 -0.02 2014-2019 POVERTY National Poverty Line International Poverty Line 56 in Uruguayan peso (2019) or US$1.90 (2011 PPP) per day per capita Lower Middle Income Class Poverty Line 94.3 in Uruguayan peso (2019) or US$3.20 (2011 PPP) per day per capita Upper Middle Income Class Poverty Line 162.1 in Uruguayan peso (2019) or US$5.50 (2011 PPP) per day per capita Multidimensional Poverty Measure SHARED PROSPERITY Annualized Income Growth per capita of the bottom 40 percent INEQUALITY GROWTH MEDIAN INCOME Growth of the annual median income/consumption per capita Sources: WDI for GDP, National Statistical Offices for national poverty rates, POVCALNET as of Feburary 2021, and Global Monitoring Database for the rest. Poverty Economist: Lourdes Rodriguez Chamussy POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, 2006-2019 INEQUALITY TRENDS, 2006-2019 Gini Index 35 50.0 25 45.0 30 40.0 20 35.0 25 30.0 15 20 25.0 15 20.0 10 15.0 10 10.0 5 5 5.0 0 0.0 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 International Poverty Line Upper Middle IC Line GDP Poverty rate (%) 2016 2006 2018 Lower Middle IC Line National Poverty Line 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 GDP per capita, $ 2017 PPP (Thousand) Source: World Bank using ECH/SEDLAC/GMD Source: World Bank using ECH/SEDLAC/GMD KEY INDICATORS Distribution among groups: 2019 Upper Middle Income line(%) Relative group (%) Multidimensional Poverty Measures: 2019 (% of population) Non-Poor Poor Bottom 40 Top 60 Urban population 97 3 39 61 Monetary poverty (Income) Rural population 96 4 50 50 Daily income less than US$1.90 per person Males 97 3 40 60 Females 97 3 40 60 Education 0 to 14 years old 93 7 62 38 At least one school-aged child is not enrolled in school 0.7 15 to 64 years old 97 3 38 62 No adult has completed primary education 2.0 65 and older 100 0 17 83 Without education (16+) 97 N/A* 47 53 Access to basic infrastructure Primary education (16+) 97 3 44 56 No access to limited-standard drinking water 0.5 Secondary education (16+) 98 2 41 59 No access to limited-standard sanitation 1.0 Tertiary/post-secondary education (16+) 100 0 10 90 No access to electricity 0.1 Source: World Bank using ECH/SEDLAC/GMD 0.1 Source: World Bank using ECH/SEDLAC/GMD Notes: N/A missing value, N/A* value removed due to less than 30 observations POVERTY DATA AND METHODOLOGY Official poverty estimates are produced annually by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) using income as a welfare measure. The poverty lines used correspond to the updated monetary value of the basic food and non-food baskets considering economies of scale for the non-food expenditures introduced by geographical area. The latest official national estimate of the poverty rate in Uruguay is 8.8 percent of the population, based on income data from the 2019 edition of the Encuesta Continua de Hogares (ECH). The World Bank poverty estimates rely on a harmonized version of the household survey data from the ECH; the latest harmonization available corresponds to data from 2018. All monetary measures are adjusted to USD in 2011 PPP. Thus, poverty is estimated using international poverty lines based on the "dollar a day" methodology that allow comparability across countries and years. The harmonized microdata for Uruguay is part of the SEDLAC project (CEDLAS and World Bank). Official microdata are available through Uruguay's national statistical office. Because of the methodological differences in the estimation process, the levels and trends of the national and international poverty rates can differ. HARMONIZATION The numbers presented in the brief are based on the regional data harmonization effort known as the Socio-economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (SEDLAC) - a joint effort of the World Bank and CEDLAS from the National University of La Plata (Argentina). SEDLAC includes 18 countries and more than 300 household surveys since the 80s. Several Caribbean countries have not been included in the SEDLAC project due to lack of data. Since an income-based welfare aggregate is widely used in the region for official poverty estimates, income-based microdata is used for the Global Monitoring Database (GMD) and Global Poverty Monitoring. SEDLAC covers demographics, income, employment, and education. Terms of use of the data adhere to agreements with the original data producers. Latin America & the Caribbean Uruguay povertydata.worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/poverty