Portfolio Management 2.1 Portfolio Optimisation Outline 1. Optimisation Theory 2. Markowitz Model 1. Optimisation Theory Optimisation Optimisation is a mathematical method to find the values of a set of variables (control variables) that minimise or maximise a function (objective function) subject to some constraints. ❖ A Typical Optimisation Problem f(x) min f (x) global maximum x local maximum subject to g(x) = 0 h(x) 0 ❖ Maximum/Minimum (Extremum) - - Maximum/minimum value of a function within a neighbourhood. local minimum global minimum constraint Called global min/max if it is the min/ max in the whole domain, local min/ max otherwise. 3 x 1. Optimisation Theory Unconstrained Optimisation ❖ Unconstrained Optimisation min f (x) x - 1st order necessary condition @f (x) =0 @x - Example min (x1 x 5)2 + 3(x2 10)2 1st order condition: @f (x) = 2(x1 @x1 5) = 0, @f (x) = 6(x2 @x2 10) = 0 ) x⇤1 = 5, x⇤2 = 10 4 1. Optimisation Theory Constrained Optimisation ❖ Optimisation with Equality Constraints min f (x) x subject to g(x) = 0 - This problem can be rewritten as an unconstrained problem by using Lagrangian, L. min L = min f (x) x, - x, 1st order necessary condition @f (x) @L = @x @x 0 g(x), 0 @g(x) @x @L = g(x) = 0 @ 5 : Lagrangian multiplier =0 1. Optimisation Theory Constrained Optimisation ❖ Example (Minimum Variance Portfolio) 1 0 min w ⌃w w 2 subject to w0 1 = 1 - - Lagrangian, L 1 0 L = w ⌃w 2 (w0 1 1) 1st order necessary conditions @L = ⌃w 1=0 ) w=⌃ 1 1 @w @L = w0 1 1 = 0 ) 10 w = 10 ⌃ 1 1 = 1 @ 1 ⌃ 1 1 ⇤ ⇤ ) = 0 1 , w = 0 1 1⌃ 1 1⌃ 1 6 1. Optimisation Theory Constrained Optimisation ❖ General Constrained Optimisation min f (x) x subject to g(x) = [g1 (x), · · · , gL (x)]0 = 0 h(x) = [h1 (x), · · · , hM (x)]0 0 - Lagrangian, L L = f (x) + - 0 1 g(x) + 0 2 h(x) 1st order necessary condition (Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) condition) @f (x) + @x g(x) = 0 h(x) 0, 0 @g(x) 1 @x 2 0 @h(x) 2 + @x 0, =0 2i hi (x) 7 = 0, i = 1, · · · , M 2. Markowitz Model Feasible Set ❖ Two-Asset Portfolio - The feasible set forms a line. µp = ↵µ1 + (1 2 p p ❖ 2 = = ↵2 12 ( + (1 ↵)µ2 ↵)2 22 𝝆=-1 + 2⇢↵(1 |↵ 1 (1 ↵) 2 | ↵ 1 + (1 ↵) 2 ↵) 𝝆=1 1 2 𝝆=-1 if ⇢ = 1 if ⇢ = +1 1 N(>2)-Asset Portfolio - The feasible set is a solid 2-D region. - It is convex to the left. 2 1 3 * Matlab: L3_Script1.m 9 2. Markowitz Model Efficient Frontier ❖ Minimum Variance Set - ❖ Minimum Variance Portfolio - ❖ The left boundary of the feasible set. efficient frontier The portfolio with the minimum variance feasible set Efficient Frontier - minimum variance portfolio Minimum variance set above the minimum variance portfolio. minimum variance set 10 2. Markowitz Model Markowitz Model ❖ Problem 1 0 min w ⌃w w 2 subject to w0 1 = 1 ) 1 0 min w ⌃w w 2 subject to Aw = b w 0 µ = µp ❖ where A = [1 µ]0 , b = [1 µp ]0 Solution 1 0 L = w ⌃w 2 @L = ⌃w @w @L = Aw @ ⇤ = (A⌃ b)0 (Aw A0 = 0 ) w = ⌃ b=0 1 A0 ) 1 b, 1 A0 ) Aw = A⌃ w⇤ = ⌃ 11 1 A0 (A⌃ 1 A0 = b 1 A0 ) 1 b 2. Markowitz Model Efficient Frontier ❖ Portfolio Variance - The variance of the optimal portfolio return has the form 2 p ⇤0 = w ⌃w⇤ = (⌃ 1 A0 (A⌃ = b0 (A⌃ - Let Q = (A⌃ 1 A0 ) 1 1 A0 ) 1 A0 ) 1 b 1 b)0 ⌃(⌃ 1 A0 (A⌃ 1 A0 ) 1 b) . Then, 2 p = b0 Qb q11 = [1 µp ] q12 q12 q22 1 µp = q22 µ2p + 2q12 µp + q11 - That is, the portfolio variance is a quadratic function of the portfolio return, µ plain. and the efficient frontier is a curve convex to the left on the 12 2. Markowitz Model Two-Fund Theorem Consider two optimal solutions wi⇤ = ⌃ 1 A0 (A⌃ If we define w3⇤ = ↵w1⇤ + (1 w3⇤ =⌃ 1 1 A0 ) 1 bi , bi = [1 µpi ]0 , i = 1, 2 ↵)w2⇤ , then 0 A (A⌃ 1 0 A) 1 b3 , 1 b3 = ↵µp1 + (1 ↵)µp2 Therefore, given any arbitrary µp3 = ↵µp1 + (1 ↵)µp2 for some ↵, the optimal solution can be constructed as a linear combination of w1⇤ and w2⇤ . w3⇤ = ↵w1⇤ + (1 13 ↵)w2⇤ 2. Markowitz Model Inclusion of a Risk Free Asset ❖ Risk Free Asset + Risky Asset - Consider a portfolio of a risk-free asset, and a risky asset F. Let α denote the weight on the risky asset. Since the variance of the risk free asset is 0, the return and risk of the portfolio have the form µp = ↵µF + (1 p =↵ ↵)rf F µ - Therefore, the feasible set forms a straight line. µp = rf + - µF rf F F ( p rf The slope is the Sharpe Ratio. SR = µF F , µF ) rf F 14 0<↵<1 lending ↵>1 borrowing 2. Markowitz Model Inclusion of a Risk Free Asset ❖ Efficient Frontier - ❖ As you can see from the figure on the right, a new efficient frontier can be constructed from the riskfree asset and the risky asset portfolio tangent to the efficient frontier constructed by risky assets only (tangent portfolio). efficient frontier One-Fund Theorem - feasible set rf There is a single fund T of risky assets such that any efficient portfolio can be constructed as a combination of the fund T and the risk-free asset. 15 risk-free asset T: tangent portfolio 2. Markowitz Model Markowitz Model with Risk Free Asset ❖ Problem 1 0 min w ⌃w w 2 subject to w0 µ + (1 ❖ 1 0 min w ⌃w w 2 subject to w0 µ = µp µ:=µ rf ! µp :=µp rf w0 1)rf = µp Solution 1 0 L = w ⌃w 2 @L = ⌃w @w @L = w0 µ @ ⇤ (w0 µ µp ) µ=0 ) w=⌃ µp = 0 ) µ0 ⌃ 1 1 µ = µp 1 µ ⌃ µ p ⇤ w = 0 1 µ⌃ µ µp = 0 1 , µ⌃ µ 16 µ 2. Markowitz Model Efficient Frontier & Tangent Portfolio ❖ ❖ Efficient Frontier - As shown below, the standard deviation of the optimal portfolio return is a linear function of the mean return. - Therefore, the efficient frontier becomes a straight line. p µp 0 ⇤ ⇤ w ⌃w = p p = µ0 ⌃ 1 µ Tangent Portfolio - Tangent portfolio is a point on the efficient frontier where the sum of the risky portfolio is 1. - This point can be found by dividing the risky weights by their sum. ⌃ 1µ w⇤ Tangent Portfolio: wT = 0 ⇤ = 0 1 1w 1⌃ µ 17 2. Markowitz Model Portfolio Choice A unique portfolio on the efficient frontier needs to be chosen. ❖ Utility Maximisation - Need to define a utility function, which is a nontrivial task. - Optimal portfolio depends on the choice of the utility function and the results can be less intuitive. Example: ❖ max w0 µ w 2 w0 ⌃w, : risk aversion coefficient Risk/Return Constraints - Some constraints can be imposed to uniquely determine a portfolio. - e.g., target return for variance minimisation, risk tolerance (defined as variance or short fall risk) for return maximisation. - Suitable for policy implementation and more practical. 18 2. Markowitz Model Allocation to the Risk Free Asset ❖ One-Step Approach - Include the risk free asset in the optimisation problem. e.g., 1 0 w = argmin w ⌃w 2 s. t. w0 µ = µp w1 < 0.1 ⇤ optimal portfolio: [w⇤ , 1 w⇤ 0 1] - The portfolio weights can be determined in one step. - Constraints should be stated in the context of the entire portfolio. - Information on the risky portfolio is indirect. - Optimisation needs to be carried out for any change of the constraints. 19 2. Markowitz Model Allocation to the Risk Free Asset ❖ Two-Step Approach (One Fund Theorem) i. Construct an optimal risky portfolio (tangent portfolio). e.g., 0 µ w ⇤ w = argmax p w0 ⌃w s.t. w0 1 = 1, w1 0.1 ii. Determine the allocation between the risk free asset and the risky portfolio. µp ⇤0 aµT = µp , µT = w µ ) a = µT optimal portfolio: [aw⇤ , 1 a] - Constraints in the first step should be in the context of the risky portfolio. - Easier to interpret the results with direct information on the risky portfolio: Risky assets and the risk free asset are often treated separately. - The optimal risky portfolio can be recycled. 20 3. Markowitz & CAPM Market Portfolio Assume that - all the investors are mean-variance optimisers; - they have the same estimate of the distribution of assets; - risk free rate is unique for all the investors. One fund theorem implies that every investor will invest in an optimal risky portfolio and a risk free asset. If the above assumptions hold, the optimal risky portfolio will be the same for everyone, and if the market is in equilibrium, the optimal risky portfolio must be equal to the market portfolio. This implies that there is no need to solve optimisation problem to find the optimal risky portfolio; the solution will always result in the market portfolio. 21 3. Markowitz & CAPM Capital Market Line ❖ Capital Market Line (CML) - If the risky portfolio is the market portfolio, the efficient frontier will be µM µ= M - ❖ This line is also called capital market line. The CML implies that any efficient portfolio has an expected return proportional to the risk measured by standard deviation. The slope µM / M is called the price of risk. CML µ M ( M , µM ) ✴ rf 22 Note: In the graph, mu is the expected return before subtracting the risk free rate. 3. Markowitz & CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model ❖ CAPM - ❖ Under the same assumptions required for the market portfolio to be the optimal risky portfolio, CAPM implies that µi = i µM , ri = i rM i = iM 2 M + ei where ei is a idiosyncratic risk which satisfies E(ei ) = 0, V (ei ) = 2 ei , 23 COV (ei , rM ) = 0. 3. Markowitz & CAPM Security Market Line ❖ Security Market Line - CAPM implies a linear relationship between the expected return and beta. - Security market line (SML) is a graphical representation of this relationship. - Under CAPM, all assets should fall on the SML. SML µ M (1, µM ) ✴ rf 24 Note: In the graph, mu is the expected return before subtracting the risk free rate. 3. Markowitz & CAPM CAPM and Risk of an Asset ❖ Risk of an Asset 2 i 2 i M 2 ei = 2 i M + 2 ei : systemic risk : idiosyncratic risk - An efficient portfolio will bear only the systemic risk and fall onto the CML. - Assets with nonzero idiosyncratic risk will drift to the right from the CML. µ asset with systemic risk only CML M systemic risk idiosyncratic risk rf 25 asset with idiosyncratic risk 3. Markowitz & CAPM Proof of CAPM Consider a portfolio of asset i and the market portfolio, M. M i rf 26 3. Markowitz & CAPM Proof of CAPM Consider a portfolio of asset i and the market portfolio, M . If the weight on i is a, µp = aµi + (1 2 p = a2 2 i a)µM + 2a(1 a) iM + (1 a)2 2 M If we construct a curve by changing a, the curve will be drawn inside of the feasible region and tangent to the CML at the market portfolio (a = 0): dµp d p = a=0 µM M 27 M i rf sha1_base64="YrMiS4pA+Kqo3diwKr0BRsPiwPA=">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</latexit> <latexit 3. Markowitz & CAPM Proof of CAPM Note dµp dµp /da , = d p d a /da d p2 =2 da dµp = µi da 1 d p2 a d p = = da 2 p da where p |a=0 = µM , dµp d p M d p p da = µi = (µi a=0 iM iM 2 M 28 µM = 2 i µM ) + (1 M 2 M = i µM 2a) Therefore, µM , M has been used. Solve for µi to obtain iM p + (a 1) 2 M 4. Markowitz & Utility Utility Function ❖ Utility Function1) - Individuals will make an investment decision in a way to maximise their welfare (utility). U(w) MU1 > MU2 MU2 - Utility function is a function of wealth that quantifies utility. - If individuals are risk averse, utility function will be concave. - Concave utility function also implies decreasing marginal utility, i.e., the more wealth you own, the less utility you will gain from another unit of wealth. 1) Wealth can also be interpreted as consumption. 29 MU1 w1 E(w) w2 Utility function w 4. Markowitz & Utility Certainty Equivalent ❖ Certainty Equivalent - Certainty equivalent C of a random wealth w is defined to be a certain wealth that has the same utility level as the expected utility of w: U(w) U[E(w)] E[U(w)] U (C) = E[U (w)] - If individuals are risk averse, C < E(w) w1 E[U (w)] < U [E(w)] C E(w) w2 Utility function 30 w 4. Markowitz & Utility Indifference Curve ❖ Indifference Curve - ❖ An investor is indifferent among investment opportunities as long as they bring the same expected utility. Indifference curve is a collection of random wealths with the same expected utility drawn on the standard deviationexpected return diagram. Indifference curve has a convex shape if the utility function is concave. μ Quadratic Utility Example Increasing utility rp2 U (rp ) = rp 2 : risk aversion coefficient h i E[U (rp )] = E rp rp2 2 = µp 2 µ2p 2 Indifference Curves C3 C2 2 p C1 C1 < C2 < C3: Certainty equivalent =C 𝜎 31 4. Markowitz & Utility Portfolio Choice ❖ Expected Utility Maximisation - An optimal portfolio can be obtained so that the expected utility is maximized. max E[U (rp )] = max E[U (w0 r)] w w μ - - The optimal portfolio is the point where the indifference curve is tangent to the feasible set. more risk averse infeasible Optimal portfolios for different risk aversion coefficients form the efficient frontier. not optimal 𝜎 32 4. Markowitz & Utility Choice of Utility Function (Quadratic) ❖ Quadratic Utility Function U (rp ) = rp - rp2 2 Marginal utility becomes negative when rp > 1/γ dU (rp ) MU = =1 drp M U < 0 if rp > - 1 Risk aversion increases with wealth. Absolute risk aversion: A(rp ) = - rp U 00 (rp ) = 0 U (rp ) 1 rp >0 This is counterintuitive and quadratic utility function is not commonly used. 33 4. Markowitz & Utility Choice of Utility Function (Exponential) ❖ Exponential Utility Function U (rp ) = - - rp ) Exponential utility is a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility: A(rp ) = - exp( U 00 (rp ) =c 0 U (rp ) If the return is normally distributed, expected utility becomes: E[U (rp )] = E[ exp( Z = exp( = = = Z rp )] rp ) p 1 p exp 2⇡ p ⇣ ⇣ exp µp exp ⇣ ⇣ µp 1 2⇡ exp p ✓ (rp (rp µp + 2 p2 ⌘⌘ Z 1 2 p 2 p 2⇡ ⌘⌘ 2 2 p 34 µp ) 2 2 p 2 2 p) exp p 2 ◆ ⇣ drp µp (rp 2 2 p ⌘ µp + 2 p2 ! drp 2 2 p) ! drp 4. Markowitz & Utility Choice of Utility Function (Exponential) ❖ Exponential Utility Function - Maximizing the expected utility is equivalent to max µp <latexit sha1_base64="FaMFoQ8c5YDM+DMFXej1DVcHJ2k=">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</latexit> w 2 2 p max w0 µ or w 2 w0 ⌃w - Don’t be confused with the quadratic utility function we saw before. - 1st order condition: - µ ⌃w = 0 Therefore, ⇤ w = <latexit sha1_base64="hzdkPVUSbO2lEoF0YVR5HH6gZe8=">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</latexit> 35 1 ⌃ 1 µ 4. Markowitz & Utility Utility Maximisation vs Mean-Variance For the exponential utility function, utility maximization and mean-variance rule are equivalent. More generally, mean-variance criterion is equivalent to the expected utility approach if 1) the utility function is quadratic or 2) returns are normally distributed. Many other utility maximization problems are also well approximated by the mean-variance rule. Quadratic Utility - 1 2 1 2 E[U (rp )] = µp µp 2 2 p For a given expected return, the expected utility will be maximised when the variance is minimised. Normal Return - Distribution is completely defined by the mean and variance. Therefore, E[U (rp )] = f (µp , p) Expected utility will increase with the mean and decrease with the variance. 36 5. Practical Framework More Practical Framework In practice, there are usually some constraints that need to be satisfied when optimizing portfolio. Also, it is not always obvious what utility function and risk aversion coefficient should be chosen: implementing utility maximization can be tricky. The next few slides show more practical portfolio optimization problems. 37 5. Practical Framework Objective Functions ❖ Return Maximisation max w0 µ (w), w ❖ Variance Minimisation min w0 ⌃w w ❖ Return/Risk (Sharpe Ratio) Maximisation w0 µ (x) max p w w0 ⌃w ❖ 38 (w) : Transaction cost 5. Practical Framework Constraints ❖ Budget Constraint w0 1 = 1 ❖ ❖ Individual Asset Level Constraints wl w wu - Weight bounds: - Weight change bounds: xl w w0 xu w0 : current weights. Sub-portfolio Level Constraints wkl w0 pk wku , k = 1, . . . , K ( 1 if asset i 2 sub-portfolio k pk (i) = 0 otherwise 39 5. Practical Framework Constraints ❖ Maximum Variance w0 ⌃w ❖ Target Return w0 µ ❖ 2 max µmin Shortfall Risk Prob(rp ) 1 (P0 ) p rmin ) P0 w0 ⌃w 0 wµ rmin Prob ✓ 1 ✓ rp µp p rmin (P0 ) µp p p rmin ◆ µp µp p P0 rmin (x) : Standard normal cdf ❖ Target Beta, Target Duration,… - Many constraints can be framed as linear or quadratic constraints. 40 ◆ P0 5. Practical Framework Transaction Cost Let x denote the change of weight, x = w w0 . • Linear transaction cost If transaction cost is c for both buy and sell of all assets (w) = c|x|0 1 If buy and sell transaction costs are di↵erent, ( c b xi , if xi 0 (buy) (xi ) = cs xi , if xi < 0 (sell) cb , cs : buy and sell transaction costs • Quadratic transaction cost (w) = x0 Cx for some matrix C. 41 5. Practical Framework Transaction Cost The absolute value function in the linear transaction cost can be eliminated by the following transformation. First, introduce two variables x+ and x such that x = x+ x , x+ , x 0 Then, (x) = (x+ , x ) = cb x+ + cs x This holds because one of x+ i and xi will always be zero. For examples, if xi > 0, both (x+ i , xi ) = (xi , 0) and (xi + dxi , dxi ) for some dxi > 0 can be a solution. However, since (xi , 0) = cb xi < (xi + dxi , dxi ) = cb (xi + dxi ) + cs dxi , the optimisation will choose (xi , 0). 42 5. Practical Framework Example I: Problem ❖ Objective - ❖ ❖ Maximise Sharpe ratio. Constraints - No short sale is allowed. - No more than 30% can be allocated to each asset. - 2nd and 3rd assets combined together cannot exceed 40%. - Probability of the return falling below 0 should be less than 5%. Transaction Costs - Buy/sell: 30 basis points - 43 5. Practical Framework Example I: Formulation w0 µ max p w (w) w0 ⌃w subject to 0 wi 0.3, pw 0.4, 1 p i = 1, · · · , N p = [0 1 1 0 · · · 0] (0.95) w0 ⌃w w0 µ (w) = 0.003|w 44 w0 |0 1 5. Practical Framework Example II: Problem ❖ Objective - ❖ ❖ Construct an optimal portfolio from the DJIA stocks and a risk free asset. Constraints - (Short sale) Short sale is not allowed. - (Diversification) Weight on each stocks cannot exceed 10% of the risky portfolio. - (Shortfall) Probability of the portfolio return falling below -0.25% should be no more than 30%. Assumptions - No transaction cost. - Risk free rate is 0. 45 5. Practical Framework Example II: Strategy ❖ Stage I: Tangent Portfolio - ❖ Find the tangent portfolio that satisfies the short sale and the diversification constraints. Stage II: Allocation to Risk-Free Asset - Determine allocation between the tangent portfolio and a risk-free asset so that the shortfall constraint is satisfied. 46 5. Practical Framework Example II: Formulation ❖ Tangent Portfolio w0 µ wT = argmax p w0 ⌃w s. t. 10 w = 1 0 w 0.1 ❖ Allocation to Risk-Free Asset where <latexit sha1_base64="oWugYjYP/ElwECoRCE5KUPlYv08=">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</latexit> Prob(rp rmin ) P0 1 rmin (P0 )WT rmin ) WT 1 (P ) µT 0 T ) WT µT T WT : Weight on the tangent portfolio µT = wT0 µ, rmin = T 0.0025, = wT0 ⌃wT P0 = 0.7 1 Note that µT (P0 ) T < 0 is assumed above. Otherwise, there are infinitely many solutions of WT that satisfies the shortfall risk. <latexit sha1_base64="UUGnzHLwabjThYo8u0r26/sLWkU=">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</latexit> 47 5. Practical Framework Example: Input Estimation ❖ Sample Period: 1994.01 - 2013.12 ❖ Moving Average T X 1 µi = rit T t=1 2 i ij = = 1 T 1 1 T 1 T X (rit µi ) 2 (rit µi )(rjt t=1 T X t=1 48 µj ) 5. Practical Framework Example II: Results ❖ Efficient Frontier - Subject to short sale constraint (without diversification constraints) 49 5. Practical Framework Example II: Results ❖ Tangent Portfolio - Subject to short sale and diversification constraints Tangent Portfolio 50 5. Practical Framework Example II: Results ❖ Optimal Portfolio Tangent Portfolio Optimal Portfolio 51 5. Practical Framework Example II: Results ❖ Tangent Portfolio Weights 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 52 5. Practical Framework Example II: Results ❖ Tangent Portfolio vs. Optimal Portfolio Optimal Tangent Optimal WT 100.00 22.66 𝜇 15.17 3.44 𝜎 15.64 3.54 P(r>-0.25%) 63.13 70.00 Tangent 53 5. Practical Framework Example II: Results ❖ Portfolio Return Distribution - 5%-95% interval for different tangent portfolio weights. WT=0.2 WT=0.4 WT=0.6 WT=0.8 WT=1.0 54 5. Practical Framework Example: Results ❖ Out-of-Sample (2014.01-2014.12) Performance S&P500 Tangent Optimal Cumulative Return 14.31 13.75 3.03 Mean Return 1.15 1.11 0.25 Stdev 2.47 2.44 0.55 Sharpe Ratio 0.46 0.45 0.45 55 6. Reading List Further Readings Luenberger. Appendix B. Calculus and Optimisation. Luenberger. Ch. 6 and 7. Markowitz, H., 1952. Portfolio selection. The journal of finance, 7(1), pp.77-91. Kroll, Y., Levy, H. and Markowitz, H.M., 1984. Mean-variance versus direct utility maximization. The Journal of Finance, 39(1), pp.47-61. Optional M.S. Lobo, Robust and convex optimization with applications in finance. Ph.d thesis. Stanford University, 2000. * The chapters of Luenbeger are based on the 1st edition and it might be different from the 2nd edition. 56