Workshop5 Government and macro economy THE ROLE OF THE GOVT. 1. Government as producer In all major economies, govt. own factors of production to produce and supply certain goods and services. These goods include merit goods like public schools and hospitals, public goods like roads, dams etc., while state owned enterprises are also in charge of providing important services e.g. Public transport, airports, electricity and power supplies, etc., while also providing necessary services like low cost housing, subsidized health, pensions, etc. As it is a producer, it also acts as an employer of public sector employees. 2. Government as a consumer Govt. is also a major consumer of goods and services in a country, and this consumption is known as public expenditure. It is of the following types: Current expenditure: any day-to-day expenses of the govt. e.g. govt. employ wages. Capital expenditure: long term investments e.g. cars of the govt., roads. Transfer payment: welfare payments provided by the govt. e.g. unemployment benefits. 3. Government as a regulator and tax collector Govt. set and enforce laws and regulations that govern the way people and firms behave. Govt. regulate markets to ensure markets do not fail, and so that socially desirable outcomes are achieved by markets. The govt. also set and collect taxes, which are a main source of govt. finance and expenditure, while there are other objectives of raising taxes which we'll discuss in later. Other Roles The govt. as a consumer The govt. as a regulator and legislator The govt. as a tax collector Macroeconomic aims of the government Macroeconomics: is the study of the overall national economy key indicator are GDP, inflation, employment, tax exchange rate. Aqqreqate Demand it is the total spending/expenditure on all goods and services in the economy. It includes spending done by all sectors of the economy, namely households (consumption), firms (investment), government (govt. spending), and international markets (net exports). Therefore: Aggregate Demand = Consumption + investment + Govt. spending + Exports — imports OR AD = C+I+G+(X-M) Aggregate supply it is the total output supplied in the entire economy over a given time. Macroeconomic Equilibrium it is where AD and AS intersect. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Macroeconomic aims of the government There are 5 major aims of the govt.: a. Economic growth an increase in the total output of the economy, measured by real gross domestic product (RGDP). Sustained economic growth is important as it creates more business opportunities, employment, and improves living standards. Negative growth in RGDP or recession is when total output in an economy falls, which leads to fall in incomes, profits, employment, enterprise, tax revenue and living standards. b. Full employment it is when a government achieves the lowest possible unemployment rate in an economy (where cyclical unemployment is zero). Low unemployment is important as it increases output, incomes, lowers poverty and govt. spending on welfare, and raises enterprise and living standards. c. Low and stable inflation/price stability sustained increase in price level is called inflation. Price stability and low inflation is important as people's purchasing power is protected, firm's costs are controlled, exports are demanded and living standards are improved. d. Balance of payments stability BOP records all the international transactions that a country undertakes with other countries. It basically records all inflows and outflows of money to and from a country. In simple terms, it is the difference between a country's exports and imports. A stable and favorable BOP is when either exports are more than imports, or the gap between inflows and outflows of money is low and sustainable. A favorable BOP is important for a country because a country may run out of foreign currency if there is an unfavorable BOP, or it may experience high imported inflation or it may undertake massive debt burdens, or it may potentially adversely affect local firms. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy e. Redistribution of income: this refers to reducing the gap between the rich and the poor in an economy. Lowering income inequality is important as it is equitable to reduce income gaps in an economy, and because it is important to improve the living standards of the poor as well. Progressive taxes are normally used coupled with transfer payments. Tools or Policies used to achieve these aims are known as fiscal, monetary (both known as demand side policies) and supply side policies. Conflicts between macroeconomic aims Conflict in aims refers to when there is a trade-off in the govt.'s macro aims, that is, when they pursue a policy to achieve one aim, that coincides with them forgoing another. 1. Low unemployment OR low inflation Low unemployment and price stability can often conflict with each other. If there are policies that lower unemployment (demand side policies) this leads to higher incomes, which leads to an increase in aggregate demand, and as aggregate demand rises, that leads to high inflation. Moreover, if the govt. wants to reduce inflation, they might implement policies that may increase taxes, which may lower employment opportunities as firms might not want to hire workers. We will discuss this conflict in particular with each policy. 2. High growth and employment OR Favorable BOP High growth and employment means higher incomes. As there are high incomes, people tend to demand higher imports, which creates an unfavorable and unstable BOP for an economy. 3. High Economic growth OR better environment High growth means high output being produced, and greater the production levels in an economy, the greater will be the pollution levels in the economy, which negatively affect the environment Do conflicts always exist? Not necessarily. We will see that supply side policies eliminate the conflicts between inflation, growth and employment, the three most important economic aims of the govt. Low inflation will encourage people to buy more, which increases growth and creates more employment, while low inflation also encourages locals to buy domestic goods and reduce imports, thus maintaining stable Bops. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Fiscal Policy & Taxes Government's Budget It is a forecast of the govt.'s expected spending and revenue the govt. may earn over a 12month period (financial year). Balanced budget Govt. spending = Govt. revenue. Budget surplus Govt. spending < Govt. revenue. Normally the govt. plans for a surplus when its economy is growing fast and there is high inflation. Budget deficit Govt. spending > Govt. revenue. Normally the govt. plans for a deficit when the economy is either in a recession or the growth rate is very low. Government spending: Objectives To provide public and merit goods To invest in national infrastructure e.g. roads To support agriculture and other industries through subsides To manage the macroeconomy through fiscal policy e.g. inflation, GDP To lower income inequality through welfare e.g. unemployment benefits, poverty support payments. Sources of qovt. Finance/public sector borrowing a. Borrowing from private sector e.g. commercial banks and general public or public sector borrowing i.e. central banks. National debt is the amount of money borrowed by the public sector b. Sale of nationalized assets and industries c. Revenue from govt. owned firms d. Revenue from direct and indirect taxes Public sector borrowings V/s National debt. The amount of money a govt. needs each year to finance any shortfall of public revenues below total public expenditure is called the public sector borrowings. The total amount of money borrowed by the public sector of a country over time that has yet to be repaid is called the public sector debt or national debt. Reasons for govt. spending To provide goods and services that are socially and economically desirable To invest in social and economic infrastructure To support agriculture and other key industries To reduce income inequalities. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Taxation: Objectives – tax is the amount of charge or levy imposed by govt. Taxes are used to generate revenue for public expenditure Taxes are used to manage macroeconomy through fiscal policy To reduce inequality by taxing the rich and spending on the poor (progressive tax) Discourage people/firms to use/produce harmful goods (excise duties) Discourage people from buying imported goods (tariffs) Characteristics of good Tax system There are six characteristics which a tax system should have. - - Equity they should be fair i.e. higher on rich and lower in poor Non-distortionary: should not affect workers' willingness to work or producers' willingness to produce Certainty workers and firms should know when and how much tax they have to pay. Convenience: firms and workers should not find it difficult to give taxes to the govt. and the govt. should provide ease of tax payments Simplicity tax should be easy to understand and tax rates should not be too complex to calculate, moreover govt. should be able to collect tax easily and efficiently Economic The tax revenue govt. collect should always be greater than the expenditure to collect tax Tax Systems a. Progressive tax it is a tax system which charges a higher income tax rate on the rich. Higher the income, greater the tax rate b. Proportional tax it is a tax system which charges the same tax rate on all income groups. So the tax rate remains the same c. Regressive tax it is a tax system which charges a higher income tax rate people higher the income, lower the rate, How to calculate tax rates (ART)? Average rate of tax (tax rate) = Total tax paid Total income earned Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school x100 Workshop5 Government and macro economy Types of taxes Direct taxes are charged directly on the incomes of consumers and profit of producers. It is mostly progressive in nature, as seen in the example above. They shift the demand curve left. Types of direct taxes include: a. Capital gain tax it is a tax levied on the gains made from the sale of some asset b. Wealth tax it is a tax on the personal wealth/assets/savings of a person Advantages Disadvantages High revenue is generated: in case of progressive tax system Reduce work incentive as people may not work for fear of paying high taxes Reduce income inequality: taken from rich and given to the poor Tax evasion: people can hide their actual income and hence pay lower taxes than what they should Based on ability to pay: progressive tax Negatively affects aggregate which may reduce employment demand c. Income tax it is a tax levied on an individual's income over a year, Cooperative tax: it is a tax levied on the profits of corporations Indirect tax- these are taxes that are added to the price of goods and services are therefore collected from transactions made by or spending done by people. They are always regressive in nature, as most of the burden of such taxes falls on the poor. They shift the supply curve left, as they increase the producers' cost of production. Advantages Disadvantages They can be used to target specific products and activities They expand the tax base They are cost effective They are flexible Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Their impact is inflationary Indirect taxes are regressive and can increase income inequalities Revenues from indirect taxes uncertain It encourages tax evasion and smuggling Workshop5 Government and macro economy Fiscal policy t is a policy through which the government tries to achieve its macroeconomic aggregate demand through the tools of taxes and government spending. I It involves varying the overall level of public expenditure and/or taxation in an economy to manage aggregate demand. Expansionary (Increase in AD) Increase in Govt. decrease in Taxes expenditure Contractionary (decrease in AD) or Decrease in Govt. expenditure or increase in Taxes Rightward shift in AD Leftward shift in AD Problems with fiscal policy a. Fiscal policy is difficult to use optimally e.g. it can result in over-heating if aggregate demand is greater than aggregate supply leading to inflation and shortage. Sometimes fiscal policy cannot be correctly measured and approximated. This is why sometimes a Govt. can increase its expenditure to come out of recession much more than what is required which leads to overheating. This leads to conflict in aims of growth and inflation. b. Fiscal policy can lead crowding out effect. To increase govt. spending, govt. needs to increase borrowing from private sector— fall in investment in private sector as funds to invest falls as govt. borrows more, this leads to increase in loan repayments and interest payment of the govt. c. Expansionary fiscal policy can develop inflationary expectations. As a rise in govt. spending hence they will demand mean people higher wages expect to AD counter to rise, that, they which will also leads expect to increase in firms’ costs and that may cause cost push inflation. Monetary Policy It is a policy through which the govt. tries to achieve its macroeconomic aggregate demand through the tools of money supply (open market operations), interest rates and in turn, exchange rates. It involves the changes in the money supply and/or interest rates in an economy to influence the level of total demand and economic activity. Expansionary (Increase in AD) Contractionary (decrease in AD) a. Increase in money supply or decrease in interest rates b. Increase in AD as borrowing increase, exports and decrease in savings c. Rightward shift in AD d. Increase in inflation, decrease in BoP as imports a. decrease in money supply or increase in interest rates b. decrease in AD as borrowing decrease, in exports and increase in savings c. leftward shift in AD d. decrease in inflation, increase in BoP as imports e. low unemployment and economic growth Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy e. High unemployment and economic growth is conflicted by high inflation and low BoP Supply side policy These are policies that aim to increase aggregate supply of the economy by making markets and industries operate in a more efficient manner in order to expand the productive potential of an economy and increase its output. The biggest advantage of supply side policies is that Over the long run, they eliminate all conflicts in policy aims between inflation, employment, economic growth and BOP, and achieve all the aims simultaneously. Tools or instrument of supply side policies a. b. c. d. e. f. g. Tax incentive to a firm Subsidies Improving education and training of labor force Labor market reforms Competitive policies Privatization Regulations and deregulations Problems with supply side policies a. b. Expensive to implement lagged effects Economic growth The circular flow of income in macroeconomics dictate that (National output = national income = national expenditure). Where national output of an economy is the total value of output of goods and services produced in the economy, national income is the total amount of income earned by the factors of production, and national expenditure is what people and organizations spend on goods and services. National output—the total value of all goods and services produced by the factors of production of the residents of a country. National income—the total amount of income earned by all the factors of production of a country Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy National expenditure—the value of the total or national output of an economy can be measured by how much people and organizations pay for all the goods and services it comprises. Gross Domestic Product GDP: market value of the final output produced within an economy over a period of time. There are 3 methods of calculating GDP: a. Output Method: this involves adding up the value of output produced in each period by otherwise every firm double in every counting industry of in a value economy. of some However, only the final outputs are counted. b. Income method: all income earned by the factors of production while producing output Transfer payments are not included in GDP (welfare payments) c. Expenditure method: spending by consumer + spending by organization + spending by government + (exports — imports) Causes of Economic growth—it involves increasing the total output produced by resources in an economy. If the total supply of goods and services can increase over time in line with rising demand, then they can be enjoyed without an increase in their prices. Following are the causes of an economic growth: The discovery of natural resources Investment in new capital and infrastructure Technical progress Increasing the quantity and quality of human resources Relocating resources Consequences of recession—Economies can sometime experience periods of negative economic growth or falling real GDP during a. An economic recession – involving a relatively short period of negative growth that may last up to year b. An economic depression or slump – which may last several years. During period of negative economic growth an economy will be producing below its PPC. Business Cycles Ups and downs in the economy are called business cycles. They are explained under: i) ii) iii) iv) Boom: a time period, where businesses are earning huge profits and employment is very high Depression: a time period in which profits start falling, output falls and employment declines Slump or recession: a time period in which businesses are facing huge losses, production is at its lowest and unemployment is at its peak Recovery: a time period where businesses and economy start recovering from slump, output starts rising and unemployment rate falls. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Benefits of Economic growth a. b. c. d. e. f. Greater availability of goods and services Increased in employment opportunities Increased sales and profits Low and stable price inflation if growth in output matches increase in demand Increasing tax revenue for govt. Improved living standards and economic welfare Negatives of economic growth a. May lead to massive income inequality as benefits of growth concentrated with the elite b. Technical progress may replace workers with machines leading to unemployment c. May use scarce resources at a fast rate which adversely affects future generations d. May increase air, noise and water pollution due to more energy used and output produced The best type of growth is known as sustainable growth which involves reducing the rate at which we use up natural resources, reducing waste in production and consumption and reducing harmful emissions by changing the way we produce and consume goods, and saving resources for future generations. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Policies to promote economic growth Demand side policies (short run): Expansionary fiscal policy through increased govt. spending and reducing taxes increase AD which leads to increase in output and employment. Expansionary monetary policy through increased money supply, reduced interest rates and exchange rates increase AD which leads to increase in output and employment Supply side policies (long run): a. Investing in education and training increases labor productivity b. Investing in economic infrastructure e.g. roads and dams improves economic capacity c. Giving tax cuts and subsidies lowers costs and increases willingness to enterprise d. Encouraging multinationals to establish plants in domestic country Employment and unemployment i) ii) iii) iv) v) Labor force: it is the working population or economically active population of an economy. It consists of all people who are willing and able to work. Hence: Labor force = employed + unemployed Labor force participation rate: it measures the percentage of the working-age population that is either in work or are looking for work. Employment by industrial sector: this measures the number/proportion people working in agricultural and manufacturing sector, compared to service developed countries, employment in services sector is high due to higher skills and higher Employment status: this shows the number of people employed full time, part time, or in temporary work. Most workers, especially males, are in full time employment, while part time employment has shown an increasing trend due to greater involvement of females in labor force, while services sector e.g. education is o leaning more towards part time workers. Unemployment: it measures the number of people who are willing and able to work but cannot find a job in an economy. Level of unemployment refers to the number of people who are unemployed, while rate of unemployment refers to the proportion of labor force that is unemployed. Unemployment rate = Total unemployed x 100 Total labor force Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Causes of unemployment a. Frictional unemployment: this occurs when a person is in between different jobs, or when a person has just completed education and is looking for jobs. b. Seasonal unemployment: this occurs due to change in demand for workers during different times/seasons of the year, e.g. guides in the northern areas are employed during the summers and unemployed during the winters. c. Cyclical unemployment: also known as demand-deficient unemployment, it occurs when there is too little demand for goods and services in the economy during an economic recession. When there is a fall in demand, stock of unsold goods rises which lowers profits, firms lower their demand for labor and off-load its current workers as well which increases unemployment and lowers incomes which further lowers demand and hence creates greater unemployment, and so on. This process is known as the multiplier effect. d. Structural unemployment: arises when there is a long-run change in the structure of the economy as the entire industry in an economy closes down because of a lack of demand for such goods. Thus, such workers' skills become redundant and they have to learn new skills to find jobs again, e.g. producers of typewriters have had to learn different software programming and new computer production techniques to find jobs again as typewriters became obsolete. e. Technological unemployment: this occurs when new and inventive and effective technology like robots and machines start replacing workers in the production of goods and services. Imperfections in labor market Imperfections in labor market, where demand for labor doesn't equal supply of labor to unemployment in a country. Reasons for such imperfections are: a. Powerful trade unions may force up wages which lowers labor demand b. Unemployment benefits may reduce incentive to work, lowering labor supply c. Other employment costs can reduce demand for labor, e.g. Medical insurance for labor d. Lack of information can prevent people from finding jobs e. Minimum wage legislation may reduce labor demand prevents workers from Labor immobility Costs of unemployment a. b. c. d. e. f. g. Loss in incomes and increase in poverty Fall in health resulting from mental stress and depression De-skilling: loss of skill due to long term unemployment Increase in crime rates and social unrest Govt. opportunity cost rises as it has to pay unemployment benefits Fall in govt. revenue Fall in GDP and exports Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Policies to reduce unemployment Demand side policies (short run) - Expansionary fiscal policy through increased govt. spending and reducing taxes increase AD which leads to increase in output and employment. Expansionary money policy through increased money supply, reduce interest rates and exchange rates increase AD which leads to increase in output and employment Supply side policies a. Investing in education and training increase labor productivity. b. Investing in economic infrastructure e.g. roads and dams improve economic activity. c. Giving tax cuts and subsidies lower costs and increases willingness to employ. d. Encouraging multinationals to establish plants in domestic country e. Labor market reforms by restricting the power of the employer and trade union. f. Reducing unemployment benefits to increase willingness to work. Inflation and deflation Inflation is the persistent rise in the general price level over time in a given economy. Different degrees of inflation are: Hyperinflation: the rate at which the prices increases phenomenally. Disinflation: When inflation is falling, but prices are rising at a decreasing rate, e.g. inflation in Pakistan in 2013 was 17%, but it came down to 10% in 2014. Deflation: when price level is falling, or when inflation is negative, e.g. -5% inflation in 2015. Measurement of inflation through CPI Rate of inflation: in an economy is calculated by calculating the average percentage change in the Price level of an economy, calculated through the Price Index (CPI) or Retail Price Index (RPI). CPI/RPI is the average price goods and services in the economy, and is known as the cost of living indirect taxes on all goods and services. Uses of CPI a. As an economic indicator: As it is widely used to measure inflation, CPI is used as an indicator of cost of living and hence purchasing power of people in an economy. It is also used to calculate the real value of many economic series like incomes or GDP etc. b. Indexation: Indexation involves tying certain payments to the rate of -increase in price inflation to keep their real value constant. E.g. a worker demands that the employer indexes his wage to the rate of inflation. So, if the inflation rate is 10%, his annual wage increase will be 10%, while if it is 15%, his wage increase will be 15% as well. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy Problems with calculating CPI a. allocating weights can be a very difficult job b. collection of information on prices very difficult c. quality of goods cannot be identified through indexing d. selection of base year complex e. very difficult to compare different index between different countries Types of inflation a. Demand pull inflation it occurs when the aggregate demand of an economy rises which pushes prices up as supply cannot meet the rise in demand. One of the biggest causes of demand pull inflation is monetary inflation. A rise in money supply raises aggregate demand as people have more money in their pockets to spend but the output hasn’t increases as much. This leads to increase in prices to equate aggregate demand and aggregate supply again. Monetarist economists argue that a simple way to control monetary inflation is through the monetary rule, which states that increase in money supply should only equal increase in real GDP, which will keep inflation constant. Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy b. Cost-push inflation it is caused by a rise in the cost of production which lowers aggregate supply and hence increases prices and lowering output. One of the biggest causes of cost-push inflation is known as wage-price spiral, which occurs When an increase in price leads to workers demanding higher wages, which increases costs, which pushes prices up further, and so on c. Imported inflation when price level rises due to a rise in prices of goods imported from abroad. This may be due to inflation in trading partners or depreciation of local currency. Inflation is Good for - - - Inflation is bad for firms when the economy is consumers with fixed income when experiencing creeping demand-pull inflation as profits rise while purchasing power remains strong. Unemployed as they will get more jobs opportunities as businesses expand in case of demand pull inflation Govt. as incomes and profits rise so does it tax revenues Borrowers as real interest rate falls - Consumers with fixed income Firms especially in case of high cost push inflation Tax revenue will fall. Exports becomes expensive so potential decline in exports. Policies to control inflation a. Government announcing a long-term inflation target: if people believe that govt. Will keep inflation low in the future, they are less likely to demand higher wages, which reduce the chances of cost-push inflation b. Demand-side policies: to reduce demand-pull inflation, the govt. should: tighten/contract fiscal policy by reducing govt. spending or raising direct taxes to reduce spending tighten/contract monetary policy by reducing money supply or raising interest rates to reduce spending c. Supply-side policies: expanding productive capacity of an economy can reduce inflationary pressures due to rising demand and production costs Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school Workshop5 Government and macro economy through policies like improved training of workers, cutting corporation taxes, providing subsidies to firms, etc. d. Direct controls: govt. may directly control prices and wages through: limiting wage increases of public sector workers to reduce purchasing power and thus AD capping the prices firms can charge from their customers through regulations e.g. maximum price laws limiting the rate at which public sector enterprises can raise their prices Policy choices and their effectiveness a. Demand-side policies: contracting AD is ineffective if inflation is caused by global factors e.g. rising food and oil prices, or by cost-push factors. Contractionary policies can also hurt low income people and create unemployment (conflict in aims). b. Supply-side policies: they are only effective in the long run c. Direct controls: limits on public sector wages will reduce incentive to work for the govt. Cutting prices of private sector goods will reduce their profits and reduce incentive to enterprise. EXAM PRACTICE QUESTIONS Q1. Distinguish with the use of examples between progressive and regressive taxes. (M-3) Q2. Discuss the extent to which a direct tax, such as income tax, can affect the distribution of income in an economy. (M-10) Q3. Distinguish between direct and indirect taxes (M-4) Q4. Discuss how govt. might finance its expenditure. (M-6) Q5. What is meant by a govt. budget. (M-4) Q6. Discuss the possible causes of inflation. (M-10) Q7. Explain how a govt. might calculate the rate of inflation in its economy (M-6) Q8. Explain two reasons why govt. aim for low and stable inflation (M-4) Q9. Explain why the pattern of employment might change. (M-8) Q10. Explain how different types of unemployment may be caused and consider which might be the most serious. (M-10) Q11. Describe how economic growth is measured. (M-4) Q12. State four economic aims a govt. may have other than economic growth. (M-4) Q13. What might a govt. do to try to redistribute income> (M-6) Q14. Discuss to what extent supply-side policies are likely to be more effective than monetary policies in stimulating economic growth (M-10) Muhammad Taha Khan – The city school