The New Photonomy
offering an exponentially fruitful abundance worldwide
Prospering with photo-VOLTAICS + photo-SYNTHETICS
presentation by Michael P Totten
to Regenerative Economics Study Group (RESG)
March 28, 2023
Farm Distributed Agrivoltaic Microgrids - a top economical Climate solution
Solar Photovoltaic power systems (Agrivoltaics)
elevated over growing crops, pastures & orchards,
and grazing sheep, cattle, and foraging chickens
§ Enormous new Cash-cow/Cash Crop
for farming communities
§ Robust economic security for cashstrapped farmers
§ Community-based economic
multiplier & jobs generator
§ Energy & National Security resilience
to disruptions & disasters
§ Climate mitigation and adaptation
solution in one
§ Pollution-free generated energy
services
§ Financeable from savings, tax
incentives, sales earnings
Tanya Doka-Spandhla grew up gardening as a child in Zimbabwe. But after her husband suffered a stroke in 2009, it
became a productive distraction that she found had big health benefits for her family. Doka-Spandhla still works in IT
for a defense contractor, but in 2015 she launched a business growing Zimbabwean corn, horned melons, spiderflower leaves, and other produce from her native home. The one-woman operation has built a devoted clientele of
African immigrants and expats mainly via word of mouth: “Some of them, they start calling in January asking if the
corn is ready, and I haven’t even started tilling the land.”
Back to Top
804 Cattle Company | Roxann Brooks Motroni
Upper Marlboro, Maryland
Est. 2016
SOLAR
Motroni (second from left) with her mom, Chantal Brooks; her daughter, Neliya Motroni; and pre-vet interns Nadia Khan and Lilly Conteh.
catalyzing
MICROGRIDS
te
ma n
C li g at io n
ti
io
M i p t at
a
Ad
Community-scale Climate Solutions
Roxann Brooks Motroni is a large-animal vet who works for the USDA. So when her parents, both physicians, retired
and bought a large plot of land next door to her home, she suggested they run cattle together. “I think everybody was
just kind of like, ‘Sure, why not? We need to do something with this land, right?’ ” says Motroni, 37. Today it’s a
multigenerational operation also involving Motroni’s husband, daughter, two older brothers and their families, plus
volunteer farm vets in training. “You know how much goes into getting a pound of ground beef on your plate,” she
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Security Resilience
DISTRIBUTED
ENERGY
SERVICES
Co
mm
sc a unit
le y
says. “You don’t take it for granted when you’ve been out there in freezing temperatures, getting hay and breaking up
ice so that cows can drink.”
A special thanks to the American Farmland Trust who helped connect the photographer with these women farmers
and their stories.
FRESH FOOD,
FEED, FIBER
Farm icons by Michelle Shin.
This article appears in the September 2022 issue of Washingtonian.
More: FeaturesFarmersFemale FarmersLocal Food
7/8
Multi-Attribute Innovative Solution that is
Value-accruing & Benefit-Stacking
Expanding, upgrading & maintaining the global
energy system is projected to require $80 trillion in
investment over the next four decades.
Distributed farm-based agrivoltaic microgrids can
economically produce well more than half of these
energy needs – offering farmers & communities
greater economic security, and enhanced national
energy security & global ecological security.
Illustrative Comparison of Multiple Benefits –
Distributed Agrivoltaics vs. Nuclear reactors
?
16
Different elevated
solar PV design approaches
AGRIVOLTAIC
SOLAR
Complementing NOT Competing with Agriculture
DIFFERENT DESIGN APPROACHES
Fixed-Tilt
Trackers
Standard Fixed Tilt
Single-Axis Tracker
Elevated Fixed Tilt
Dual-Axis Tracker
Elevated Spaced Fixed Tilt
Elevated Single-Axis Tracker
Novel
Adjustable Panels
Dual-Pitch
Vertical Solar Fencing
Greg Barron-Gafford (2021) ‘Agrivoltaics’ As a Food,
Energy, and Water Solution for Resilience Under a
Changing Climate , Colorado Energy Research
Collaboratory, Sept. 22, 2021,
https://cercsymposium.org/the-potential-ofagrivoltaics-research-to-real-life/
Warren Wilson College’s Agrivoltaic Research & Demonstration Station (ARDS)
Showcasing & Sharing the Value-generating, Benefit-Stacking Innovation
Develop WWC’s ARDS as a packageable, scalable replication model
Warren Wilson College (WWC), western North
Carolina, 1,200 acres sustainable farm & forestry
experiential work & community service college
§ Establish WWC’s southern Appalachian
southeast region Agrivoltaics Research
& Demonstration Station.
§ Sustainable research on what crops,
pastures, orchards & livestock grow
best under the solar panels.
§ Will demonstrate & share Onsite results
with region’s 16,000 farmers cultivating
1 million acres.
§ Will leverage results Online to speed &
scale Agrivoltaics among 500 million
farms worldwide cultivating 5 billion
acres.
Warren Wilson College
One of the nation’s premier
experiential learning colleges
1,200-acres sustainable farm & forest
campus in Swannanoa, western North
Carolina
Distinguished by life-long learning model
of intentionally integrating applied
experiential work learning and academic
inquiry with engaged community service.
Core to WWC’s strategic mission is to serve
as a living laboratory for regenerative
farming and ecological land management
and practices.
All-In-One-Play Solution addressing multiple Crises:
Security, Farm Poverty, Climate, Food, Water & Energy
Onsite and Online processes
WWC Agrivoltaics Research & Demonstration Station
Distributed microgrid with 2 MW solar PV system plus 2 MWh battery storage
All electrification of combustion devices – tractors, farm machinery, vehicles, buildings
Onsite – In the Field
Meg Caley (left), founder & farmer-in-chief of Sprout City Farms, and
intern Claire Wineman, collect soil samples at Jack’s Solar Garden in
Longmont, CO -one of 30 agrivoltaics research sites being studied by
the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis.
Online – Over the Internet
MI, AI & HI collaboration total solution for farmers. Digital twin
sensor technologies accumulate farmers' real-time production
knowledge and provide intelligent, adaptive and dynamic facility
management and farming decision making recommendations.
Digital Twin Platform with Virtual
3D & 4D (over time) Visualizations
Value-added mapping and app integration:
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
Designing layouts
Economic & Financial assessments
Data collection & Monitoring outcomes
Digital asset management
Agrivoltaic system performance
Food production results
Knowledge resources
Education & Training
Communication network
Open-access Sharing & Exchange
Client services
SmartWorldOS™ Digital Twin
the world’s
most advanced
Digital
Twin platforms.
SpeedOne
andofScale
Replication
Model by
promoting
Digital Twin
Experiential Learning, Interactivity, and Community Service Applications
An Exploratory Curriculum Platform – Multi-, Cross-, Trans-Disciplinary
ARDS Speed & Scale Package applied throughout
Southern Appalachian/ Southeast U.S. REGION
§ The southern Appalachian/southeast region is
currently home to 407,000 farm operations
covering 76 million cultivated acres.
§ Agrivoltaics installed on 2% of southeast U.S.
cultivated lands (1.5 million acres) would
generate 669 Trillion Watt-hours (TWH)/year.
§ Equivalent to 2/3rd electricity consumption.
§ Multi-hundred billion dollar investment
opportunities.
9 southern Appalachian and
southeast U.S. states
modernfarmer.com /2018/05/10-numbers-that-show-how-much-farmland-were-losing-to-development/
10 Numbers That Show How Much Farmland We’re Losing to
Development
⋮ 5/22/2018
ARDS Speed & Scale Package expansion potential across NATION
"Farms Under Threat," a new report from the American Farmland Trust, shows the dire state of our nation's
farmlands.
§ The US is currently home to 2 million farm
operations covering 900 million cultivated
acres, and employ 2.6 million farmers
§ The national median farm income
generated in 2017 was negative $1,035
per principal farm operator household.
§ Agrivoltaics installed on 1% of existing
cultivated lands (9 million acres) would
generate 3,600 Trillion Watt-hours/year.
§ Nearly equivalent to total electricity
consumption; or 1/3rd of total U.S. energy
consumption in an all-electric economy
31 million acres of farmland lost to
This image, courtesy of American Farmland Trust, shows the conversion of agricultural land to urban and low-density
development, in total, between 1992 and 2012
§ Multi-trillion dollar investment
residential development between 1992 and 2012.
opportunities
Photography AFT, Farms Under Threat
The organization’s findings, which they are calling “the most comprehensive ever undertaken of America’s agricultural
lands,” aren’t hugely shocking, at least at the surface: American farmland is being vacuumed up by development.
What’s new, though, is the discovery that the development isn’t coming only from urban areas expanding outwards –
rural areas are also losing farmland rapidly. “The fact is that we have this sort of insidious development that no one’s
been paying attention to, and we really need to start paying attention,” says Julia Freedgood, the assistant VP of
programs at the AFT.
Why is this happening? There’s no simple answer. One major reason, which has spiraling effects, is that farming is an
ARDS Speed & Scale Package expansion potential WORLDWIDE
Number, size and distribution of farms,
smallholder farms, and family farms worldwide.
§ The world is currently home to 500
million farm operations covering 5 billion
cultivated acres.
§ Agrivoltaics installed on 1% of existing
cultivated lands (50 million acres) would
generate 22,000 TWhs per year.
§ Equivalent to total electricity
consumption worldwide, and 2/3rd of
total world energy consumption in allelectric economy.
§ Tens of trillion dollars investment
opportunities.
Farming the
with Solar Photovoltaics
WWC’s Agrivoltaic Research
& Sun
Demonstration
Station
AGRIVOLTAIC generation + storage distributed microgrids
Showcasing & Sharing the Value-generating,
Benefit-Stacking Innovation
(1 to 10 MW)
The term agrivoltaics is used
instead of photovoltaics to
highlight its dual-use (and dualincome) farm capability, given
the panels are standing up to a
dozen feet off the ground.
Economic Security
1. Increasing economic security
for farmers with greater
value per acre.
2. Rural community economies
enhanced from local
economic multiplier effect of
circulating energy dollars
longer within the local
economy.
3. Several-fold greater
employment generation than
in fossil or nuclear industries.
4. Zero fuel requirement
eliminates vulnerability to
fuel volatility (prices and
supplies).
This enables
ongoing
Tiny land footprint, tiny emissions
footprint
cultivation
of
crops, pasture
Farmers are land-blessed but cash-strapped
harvesting, and livestock
Agrivoltaics combine 80+% photosynthetic
grazing.+ 80+% photovoltaic
1 million acres cultivated in WNC, average farm 80 to 100 acres
From the global and inter-generational
perspective, recent research finds that
installing AV microgrids on less than 2 percent
of existing agricultural lands could generate
100 percent of the total energy demands
worldwide. (1)
Ancillary benefits would include upwards of an
80 percent reduction in global CO2 emissions,
with similar deep reductions in a dozen
injurious air pollutants. (2)
1 Elnaz H. Adeh, Stephen P. Good , M. Calaf & Chad W. Higgins (2020) Solar PV power potential is Greatest over croplands, Nature Scientific Advances, 9:11442,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47803-3?sf222971143=1
2 Shindell, Drew T. (2015) The social cost of atmospheric release, eClimatic Change, Feb. 25, 2015, 130:313–326,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/276079602_The_Social_Cost_of_Atmospheric_Release . DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1343-0.
WWC’s Agrivoltaic Research & Demonstration Station
Services – Protecting
Showcasing
& Sharing
Value-generating,
Innovation
Harvesting
& Storing
Photonsthe
– IN-THE-FIELD
R&DBenefit-Stacking
Station Pollination
NREL’s Innovative Site Preparation and
eraging WWC’s land assets, & applied human, social & intelligence capital
Think deeply
& Educational
arren WilsonEconomic
College (WWC)
is an
veterate leader in education
innovation.
Security
1. Robust learning/experience curves far
is is embedded
in to
WWC’s
with its
superior
fossil ormission,
nuclear technologies,
resulting in continually
costs from
table and distinctive
approachdeclining
to
expanding
production.
ucation that
“intentionally
integrates
ademics,
and community
2. work,
Incorporates
valuable educational/learning
for colleges
– experiential
learning
gagement model
to cultivate
curiosity,
empathy,
and work experience for students, fieldd integrity.”
based learning, engaged in community
service – graduating students with skills and
We empower
graduates
to pursue
talents
highly relevant
to community and
eaningful careers
andopportunities.
lead purposeful
local market
es dedicated
to as
a just,
equitable,and
and
3. Serve
both adaptation
mitigation
stainable world.”
purposes in facing sudden major
disruptions.
WWC Student Farm Crew
“Legacy. Honor. D
The world unquestionably needs curiously ins
the unprecedented “super wicked” problem
WWC’s Agrivoltaic Research & Demonstration Station
Showcasing & Sharing the Value-generating, Benefit-Stacking Innovation
Ecological Security
1. 100% elimination of
CO2-e emissions in
generating electricity.
2. 100% elimination of a
dozen air pollutants
(technically called
SCARs) that annually
cause 5+ million
premature deaths
worldwide.
SCARS
Social Cost of
Atmospheric
Releases*
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
HFC-134a
Black carbon (BC) PM2.5
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) PM2.5
Organic carbon (OC) PM2.5
Carbon monoxide (CO) PM2.5
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) PM2.5
Ammonia (NH3) PM2.5
Mercury (Hg)
CO2 emissions
equivalent to
1991 Mt.
Pinatubo
volcanic
eruption
released
every 10
hours.
CARBON BOMB
>$10 trillion
per year
economic costs
Lungs of L.A.
teen NONsmoker in
1970s; Most big
cities of
developing
nations Today.
*Drew T. Shindell
(2015) The
social cost of atmospheric
release, eClimatic Change,
Feb. 25, 2015, 130:313–326
DOI 10.1007/s10584-0151343-0
WWC’s Agrivoltaic Research & Demonstration Station
Showcasing & Sharing the Value-generating, Benefit-Stacking Innovation
Minimal new land clearing, tiny w
Ecological Security
1. Eliminates need for clearing new land to site
power plants.
Impo
wilde
ecos
crop
area
2. Reduction in biomass plantations and land area
to produce biofuels for combustion uses.
3. 90% reduction in water (otherwise required by
fossil-, nuclear- and biomass-fueled thermal
power plants and refineries for cooling).
Wate
prod
4. Smaller overall mining footprint than annually
mining fossil fuels.
5. Greatly increasing ecological health and
integrity, and reduction of threats to intact
ecosystems from mega-scale energy projects.
No d
RAINFOREST DESTRUCTION
RAINFOREST DESTRUCTION
Palm oil plantations in Borneo for Biofuels
Palm oil plantations in Borneo for Biofuels
Warren Wilson College’s Agrivoltaic Research & Demonstration Station
Showcasing & Sharing the Value-generating, Benefit-Stacking Innovation
Energy & National
Security
1. Greater resilience,
safety, security from
surprise disruptions.
2. Fail gracefully not
catastrophically.
3. Anti-fragile, more
likely to remain
operating and/or
rebounding rapidly
after a disruption.
Agrivioltaics – More Resilient, Anti-Fragile, Robust Against Disasters
Agrivoltaics
Local, distributed farm-based power systems
would be significantly more secure, resilient,
safe, and operational against the virulent new
21st Century threats now confronting the nation’s
massive power plants, refineries, grid and
pipeline infrastructure, that have been identified
by the U.S. Dept. of Defense:
•
•
•
•
terrorist physical attacks
cyberattacks
cybercrimes (extortion)
technical and human error
AND NOW, NEW WEATHER NORMS
• climate-triggered disasters (ice storms,
hurricanes, floods, wildfires, droughts).
Designing Physical Assets for Resiliency & Security
Agile Fractal Grid (AFG) has created a platform to help rural and campus
communities achieve energy security and meet renewable energy goals
while also providing gigabit broadband access. Together with an
accompanying economic development ecosystem, AFG can help deploy
clusters of microgrids into a system of systems to behave like a utility,
with the ability to participate in grid resiliency services and energy
markets at scale.
Unlike competing models, AFG’s solution includes:
A real-time mechanism for distributing the control of electric power to
the edges of the grid driven by local and regional decision support
systems
Multi-tiered energy optimization and smart distribution management to
allow profitable participation in grid reliability services and the energy
imbalance markets
Reliable, resilient, and islandable services enabled by the deployment
of an accompanying gigabit broadband wired and wireless
infrastructure
End-to-end military-grade cybersecurity with 24/7 managed detection
and response to thwart threat actors
Business models and ecosystem of technologies, service providers, and
revenue sources to launch and sustain operations
https://theagilefractalgrid.com/
Co-op Tech: The Agile, Fractal Grid
The grid of the future is being built now, one step at a time
900 Electric cooperatives own 42
percent of America's distribution
lines covering 75% of the country.
Each islandable microgrid operates autonomously as
needed, but operates as a team when connected.
Contribution of Value-of-Solar components to Levelized-Cost-of-Electricity (LCOE)
Table 2. Comparison of VOS rates and net metering rates for some U.S. States
State
VOS
Net Metering
Minnesota
13.5¢/kWh
Austin (Texas)
10.7¢/kWh
Approximately 4 – 5¢/kWh
(1.2 – 1.6$/kWh) [113]
Maine
33.7¢/kWh
12.16 – 14.66¢/kWh [114]
New Jersey
25.6 – 28¢/kWh
Pennsylvania
28.2 – 31.8¢/kWh Minimum value of (4¢/kWh) [115]
Washington
19.4¢/kWh
D.C.
K.S. Hayibo & J. M.Pearce (2021) A review of value of
5. Future Worksolar methodology with a case study of the U.S. VOS.
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 137, 110599.
This study has covered
a vast number of existing VOS components, but some components were not
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110599
included in this study due to the lack of a reliable evaluation methodology. These components include
the economic development cost, the avoided fuel hedge cost, and the avoided voltage regulation cost.
2 key
These represent opportunities
forfactors:
future work once the evaluation methodologies have been developed.
Discount
rate that would provide insights with multiple utility data sets.
Also, there are some parameters
sensitivities
These parameters include
the analysis
period, the hourly solar heat rate and solar PV fleet, and the 10Externality
valuations
years load profile. Future studies can focus on incorporating the sensitivities of these parameters into
the model or can use the foundation of this model to build on new VOS studies according to a specific
location and available data from utilities. Another limitation to this study is that it does not include the
effect of the load match factor, and loss saving factor.
As the results show the environmental and health costs can dwarf the technical costs and thereby
determine the VOS. There are also second order effects that can be used to obtain a more accurate VOS
values. For example, the negative impact of pollution from conventional fossil fuel electricity
generation on crop yields [106] as well as PV production could also be considered in future work to
give a more accurate V8. In addition, as greater percentages of PV are applied to the grid the avoided
costs will change and there is a need for a dynamic VOS akin to dynamic carbon life-cycle analyses
needed for real energy economics [116]. This complexity will be further enhanced by the introduction
of PV and storage systems [117] as it will depend on size [118] and power flow management and
scheduling [119,120].
Low Value Scenario
9.3 cents/kWh
High Value Scenario
50.4 cents/kWh
Figure 11. Contribution of each VOS component to the overall VOS LCOE – Low Cost Scenario.
13. Contribution
of eachofVOS
component
toGHG
the overall VOS LCOE – High Cost Sce
Perhaps the most urgent need for Figure
future work
is accurate estimations
the value
of avoided
costs
because
the magnitude
the potential liability [107,108] could overwhelm other
The contribution of the avoided environmental (V8) cost liability
increases
with
the VOS
value as of
it becomes
of the
This
is because
asofthe
of climate change
have become
more VOS throughout Figure 11, Figure
evolution
therealities
cost percentage
contribution
of each
the largest contributor to the overall value followed by thesubcomponents
health liability
(V 9VOS.
) costThe
as shown
in Figure
established, a method gainingFigure
traction13toshows
accountthe
for level
the negative
externalities
is
climate
litigation
of uncertainty of the VOS in respect to the corresponding component.
12 representing a middle VOS value. The avoided generation
capacity cost’s
reduced
asthis
well
as
4) is
[107,108,121-131].
For (V
utility
VOS
analysis
is particularly
complex as it is difficult to know where
the contribution of the avoided fuel cost (V3).
to draw the box around environmental costs. As some studies have concluded there is liability for past
The
lowest
andnations
highest
LCOE
VOS
values obtained
from the assumptions made in this stu
emissions as well as for harm
done
in other
[122].
Liability
for disastrous
events is also
challenging to predict [126]. Combining
both9.37¢/kWh
other nations and
and disaster
creates liability
potential that
respectively
50.65¢/kWh.
The existing
VOS studies results fall into this interv
could become enormous with sample
prioritization
given to victims
thatby
are losing
culture, and
calculation
made
[45] their
for land,
Minnesota
is lives
13.5¢/kWh while [46] calculated a V
due to climate change [127]. Tort-based lawsuits are already possible from a legal point of view [126],
10.7¢/kWh for Austin Energy. These values are in the lower spectrum of the result of thi
but there are other legal methods that could be used to reduce climate change such as public nuisance
because
the considerations
Theyemissions
incorporate
laws [128]. Some authors have
argued of
a ‘polluters
pay principle’made.
for carbon
[129]. less
OtherVOS components than the present stu
2021 - Existing
2046 - Achievable
188% annual growth rate over 9 years
14,000 MW installed capacity
$13 billion market
Sustain 32% annual growth rate next 25 years
1000x increase to 14 Million MW
$13 Trillion market
Agrivoltaics Sustained Growth
16,000,000
2021
14,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2012
Asp
irat
ion
10,000,000
&P
ers
pir
atio
n
12,000,000
2,000,000
0
2021
2046
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Timeline to
Transition
All-Purpose EndUse Power of 139
Countries to 100
% Wind-WaterSolar and 5
Reasons Demand
Decreases 58%
along the Way.
Stanford Professor Mark Z.
Jacobson, 100% Clean, Renewable
Energy and Storage for Everything,
Textbook in Preparation, January
13, 2019,
https://web.stanford.edu/group/ef
mh/jacobson/WWSBook/WWSBoo
k.html
139-Country All-Sector End-Use Power Denabd abd Supply (GW)
ideally sooner. An 80 percent transition is proposed to occur by no later than 2030. End-use power demand reductions occur for
five reasons: (1) the efficiency of moving low-temperature building heat with heat pumps instead of creating heat with
combustion; (2) the efficiency of electricity over combustion for high-temperature industrial heat; (3) the efficiency of electricity
in battery-electric (BE) vehicles and electrolytic hydrogen in hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) vehicles over combustion for
transportation; (4) eliminating the energy to mine, transport, and process fossil fuels, biofuels, bioenergy, and uranium, which
occurs when WWS is used instead of conventional fuels; and (5) improving end-use energy efficiency and reducing energy use
beyond in the BAU case. The total demand reduction due to these factors is 57.9 percent (Table 7.1).
20,000
BAU (20.6 TW)
Projected BAU end-use power demand and supply
Using heat pumps for
building heat -15.5% (-3.2 TW)
Using electricity for industrial
heat -3.6% (-0.73 TW)
15,000
Using BE and HFC vehicles
-19.9% (-4.1 TW)
Eliminating mining, transporting,
processing fuels -12.3% (-2.5 TW)
10,000
Efficiency past BAU -6.7% (-1.4 TW)
Fossil fuels + nuclear +
biofuels/bioenergy
100% WWS (8.7 TW)
Onshore wind (23.0%)
Tidal+
5,000 wave
(0.83%)
Offshore wind (15.6%)
Utility PV+CSP (23.3%)
Geothermal (0.91%)
Rooftop PV (31.0%)
Hydroelectric (5.5%)
0
2020
2025
2030
80%
Transition
at Latest
2035
Year
2040
2045
2050
100%
Transition
at Latest
Updated from
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CombiningRenew/WorldGridIntegration.pdf
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf
25
Centralized Power Options a Challenger?
CYBER WARFARE
ever-present threat causing permanent Homeland INSecurity
GIANT PLANTS, PIPES
& GRIDS FROM LAST
INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION ALL
VULNERABLE
Michael P. Totten (2021) Dispelling the Climate of Fear:
Military-Strength Civilian Energy Systems for Real
Homeland Security in this Century of Uncertainties,
https://www.academia.edu/39886910/Dispelling_the_Cli
mate_of_Fear_Military_Strength_Civilian_Energy_System
s_for_Real_Homeland_Security_in_this_Century_of_Unc
ertainties
Centralized Power Options a Challenger?
NOR MASSIVE-SCALE CENTRALIZED SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS
2.2 GW Solar PV park, Qinghai Province, 7000 acres, 5.4 ¢/kWh
37 GW of potential build-out – transmission 1000 miles
Monoculture Biomass Plantations - a Challenger?
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Wind-BEV
Footprint 1-2.8 km2
Turbine spacing
0.35-0.7% of US
Cellulosic E85
4.7-35.4% of US
Nuclear-BEV
0.05-0.062%
Footprint 33%
of total; the rest is
buffer
Corn E85
9.8-17.6% of
US
Geoth BEV
0.006-0.008%
Solar PV-BEV
0.077-0.18%
Fossil Fuels with Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) - a Challenger?
The federal IRA
(Inflation Reduction
Act) increased CCS
credit values across
the board to
between $60 and
$180 per ton CO2,
depending on the
technology and
application.
As shown
in Figure
1, the estimates
reviewed for the CO2 capture cost are as follows:
$/ton
with federal
credits
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ammonia production: $22–$32 per ton
Cement production: $19–$205 per ton
Coal-fired power plants: $20–$132 per ton
Ethanol production: $26–$36 per ton
Natural gas power plants: $49–$150 per ton
Hydrogen production: $65–$136 per ton
Steel mills: $8–$133 per ton
J. M. Moch et al.(2022) Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the U.S. Context, Belfer Center, Harvard
Univ, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage-technologies-and-costs-us-context
Under current law, the 2026 value of the 45Q tax credit does not provide sufficient incentive to
make CCUS economic for any of the reviewed cost estimates, except for one estimate of capture
costs in steel production using low-efficiency capture technology. With the Build Back Better Act,
the increase in the 45Q tax credit would be enough to make CCUS economic given cost estimates
for ammonia production, ethanol production, natural gas processing, and for most reviewed estimates for coal power plants. The even larger increase in the 45Q tax credit proposed in the CCUS
Tax Credit Amendments Act of 2021 would also provide sufficient revenue for CCUS in cement
Union of Concerned Scientists
Figure ES-1. Nuclear Subsidies Compared to EIA Power Prices
Nuclear
Subsidies Compared to EIA Power Prices
12
11
Projected 2010–2024
10
Actual 2009
Historical 1960–2009
9
¢/kwh
cents/kWh
2
8
1
1
140%
Legacy subsidies are compared to the
EIA 1960–2009 industrial power
price (5.4 ¢/kWh). Ongoing subsidies
are compared to EIA 2009 actual
power prices for comparable busbar
plant generation costs (5.9 ¢/kWh).
Subsidies to new reactors are
compared to EIA 2009 reference-case
power prices for comparable busbar
plant generation costs (5.7 ¢/kWh).
7
6
5
4
3
Nuclear Option a Challenger?
3
2
0
Low
High
All Ownership Types
Legacy
Low
High
Low
IOU
High
POU
Ongoing
Subsidies to Existing Reactors
Low
High
IOU
Low
High
POU
Subsidies to New Reactors
Doug Koplow (2011) Nuclear
Subsidies still not viable without
subsidies, Feb. 23, 2011, UCS,
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/n
uclear-power-still-not-viable-withoutsubsidies.
Note: Legacy subsidies are compared to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) average 1960–2009 industrial
power price (5.4 ¢/kWh). Ongoing subsidies are compared to EIA 2009 actual power prices for comparable busbar
plant generation costs (5.9 ¢/kWh). Subsidies to new reactors are compared to EIA 2009 reference-case power prices
for comparable busbar plant generation costs (5.7 ¢/kWh).
treatment is nevertheless a subsidy, with a profound effect on the bottom line for the industry
and taxpayers alike.
Reactor owners, therefore, have never been
economically responsible for the full costs and
risks of their operations. Instead, the public faces
the prospect of severe losses in the event of any
number of potential adverse scenarios, while private investors reap the rewards if nuclear plants are
economically successful. For all practical purposes,
nuclear power’s economic gains are privatized,
while its risks are socialized.
Recent experiences in the housing and financial markets amply demonstrate the folly of
arrangements that separate investor risk from
reward. Indeed, massive new subsidies to nuclear
power could encourage utilities to make similarly
speculative, expensive investments in nuclear
2
plants—investments that would never be tolerated
if the actual risks were properly accounted for and
allocated.
While the purpose of this report is to quantify
the extent of past and existing subsidies, we are
not blind to the context: the industry is calling for
even more support from Congress. Though the
value of these new subsidies is not quantified in
this report, it is clear that they would only further
increase the taxpayers’ tab for nuclear power while
shifting even more of the risks onto the public.
LOW-COST CLAIMS FOR EXISTING REACTORS
IGNORE HISTORICAL SUBSIDIES
The nuclear industry is only able to portray itself
as a low-cost power supplier today because of past
government subsidies and write-offs. First, the
industry received massive subsidies at its inception,
Source: Japan Center for Economic Research (2017). JCER’s 2019-cost
estimate ranges from US$322 billion to US$719 billion [all in 2021
dollars] depending on whether decommissioning will be done by
2050 or postponed to after 2050.
What About
Mining Minerals
Vast Devastation
and Destruction
from Mining Fuels
Counties with abandoned mine lands on the federal inventory. Dark red counties
have the most reclamation costs; the lightest shade of red has the least
BLM Abandoned Mines Inventory,
https://www.blm.gov/programs/public-safety-andfire/abandoned-mine-lands/blm-aml-inventory
Materials requirements in transi!oning power and transport
systems
70
Materials requirements in
transitioning in power & transport
systems to 2050
Increases in transition metals are more
than offset by declines in fuel output.
Totals include fuels as well as raw
materials for capital equipment used
directly and indirectly in production and
consumption activities, including
extraction and waste.
Electricity sector materials are depicted in
solid colors, with the transport sector in
patterns.
60
(million tons)
50
40
30
20
10
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
0
Jim Krane & Robert Idel (2022) On the reduced supply chain risks and
mining involved in the transition from coal to wind, Energy Research &
Social Science, 89, Feb. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102532
“
”
Oil
Coal
Natural gas
Iron
Copper
Nickel
Lithium
Cobalt
Other metals
Oil
Coal
Natural gas
Iron
Copper
Nickel
Lithium
Cobalt
Other metals
IEA is very selective in presenting data. IEA looks only at the STOCKS (the assets you need to
build the generator or car) not the FLOWS (the energy you need to run them).
But the flows of energy are 2-3 orders of magnitude larger than the stocks. FOR EXAMPLE:
Over its lifetime of 30 years, 1MW of solar capacity will generate over 40,000 MWh of
electricity, so the mineral requirement is just 0.15kg per MWh.
Compare that to a coal fired generation station where the critical mineral requirement is
indeed a bit less, but you need 350 kg of coal to generate that MWh. On this calculation, coal
generation will need more than 2,000 times more material by weight than solar generation.
Kingsmill Bond (2021) Mineral constraints for transition overstated by IEA, CarbonTracker, May 11, 2021,https://carbontracker.org/mineral-constraints-for-transition-overstated-by-iea
There are significant differences between oil security and mineral security
‘In the event of an oil supply crisis, all consumers driving gasoline cars or diesel trucks
are affected by higher prices. By contrast, a shortage or spike in the price of a mineral
affects only the supply of new EVs or solar plants.
But we must not forget the bigger story: we will need a lot less material and that
means a much smaller environmental impact. Global demand for fossil fuels in 2019
was over 13,000 million tons (mt), and global demand for critical minerals in the
renewable sector in 2020 was 7 mt. Under the IEA’s 1.5 degree scenario, demand for
critical minerals in the renewable sector will rise to 43 mt in 2040.
So the fossil system requires over 300 times more material than the renewable
system. The disparity is enormous, and no amount of fancy footwork by apologists of
the fossil fuel system should deflect us from the central point that we have the
resources to make the energy transition a reality and to usher in a new age of growth
and prosperity.’
Kingsmill Bond (2021) Mineral constraints for transition overstated by IEA, CarbonTracker, May 11, 2021,https://carbontracker.org/mineral-constraints-for-transition-overstated-by-iea
RESPONSIBLE MINERAL SOURCING AND CIRCULAR MINERALS ECONOMY
Key elements in the life cycle of an electric vehicle, with an emphasis on the
policies and practices required to activate more responsible mineral sourcing.
Just Minerals: Safeguarding protections for community
rights, sacred places and public lands from the unfounded
push for mining expansion, Earthworks, Why a responsible
renewable energy transition hinges on mining law reform,
June 2021, https://earthworks.org/just-minerals
Front. Environ. Sci. Eng. 2023, 17(2): 23
CO2-e
emission of
primary and
recycling
process for
typical metals
64%
51%
46%
Ratio (%) = Recycling /
Primary process × 100.
For instance, the CO2
emission of Cu was 1.71
and 0.88 kg per kg
metal yield for primary
process and recycled
process, respectively.
The ratio of Cu is 51 %.
Xianlai Zeng (2023) Win-Win: Anthropogenic circularity
for metal criticality and carbon neutrality, Frontiers in
Environmental Science & Engineering, 17(2): 23
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-023-1623-2
5%
(Copper)
(Aluminum)
9%
(Iron)
(Gold)
(Palladium)
of primary mining; (b) CO2 equivalent emission of primary and recycling process for typical
(Norgate and Haque, 2010; USEPA, 2012; Ashby and Johnson, 2014; Liu, 2014; Nuss and
Ratio (%) = Recycling / Primary process × 100. For instance, the CO2 emission of Cu was 1.71
PERSONAL CONTEXT (my bias)
I subscribe to Horace Mann's injunction, "Be ashamed to
die until you have won some victory for humanity."
In my case, that would be to help get humanity on a positive
path for resolving climate destabilization, while also turning
life-threatening and life-diminishing poverty of billions into
sustainable livelihoods, eliminating the need for oil wars,
and reducing species extinction rates (now at 1000 times
the natural background level) back to natural levels.
Michael P Totten
Kinda wish I started earlier, but I'm having a heck of a great
time working on it.
www.linkedin.com/in/michaelptotten
totten.michael@gmail.com