TREND ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY BODA BODATRANSPORT IN
KAMPALA
(2000-2012).
BY
SSEMANDA NICHOLAS
11/U/9048/EVE
A RESEARCH DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF STATISTICS
AND PLANNING AS PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR
THE AWARD OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
JANUARY 2015
1
Declaration
I, Ssemanda Nicholas, declare that this Research report submitted to the Department of
Planning and Applied Statistics of Makerere University is from my own effort and has not
been published, presented or submitted to any higher institution of learning before for any
academic award.
Signature: ………………………..
Date:……………………….
SSEMANDA NICHOLAS
11/U/9048/EVE
i
Approval
This is to confirm that the research entitled “Analysis of accidents caused by bodaboda
transport in Kampala (2000-2012)” by Ssemanda Nicholas was compiled under my
supervision and is now ready for submission to the Department of Planning and Applied
Statistics of Makerere University.
Signature…………………………..
Date …………………………
MR. RICHARD TUYIRAGIZE
SUPERVISOR
ii
Dedication
This Research report is specially and especially dedicated to my entire family, relatives and
friends.
iii
Acknowledgement
In the first place, I thank the almighty God who has given me the gift of life, protected and
guided me, given me the knowledge and wisdom and enabled me to compile this report
successfully.
I wish also to extend my sincere and humble gratitude to my supervisor Mr Richard
Tuyiragize for his time, kindness, willingness and support rendered to me during the research
process from the time of conception to the final compilation of this report.
My heartfelt appreciation goes to my Brothers and sisters and my entire family for their
courage, support both morally and financially, advice and care given to me while at the
University and during the Research process.
I greatly appreciate inputs from my course mates and dear friends Joseph, Nicholas, Doreen,
Kenneth, Shamim, Vannice, Howard to mention but a few, for their patience, courage,
advice and time offered to me while at the University and the compilation of this report.
Special thanks and may God reward you abundantly from his bounty.
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Declaration.................................................................................................................................i
Approval ...................................................................................................................................ii
Dedication ............................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................................iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................v
List of tables............................................................................................................................vii
CHAPTER ONE ......................................................................................................................1
INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................1
1.0 Introduction........................................................................................................................1
1.1Background to the study ....................................................................................................1
1.2 Problem statement .............................................................................................................2
1.3 Objectives of the study.......................................................................................................2
1.4 Scope of the study...............................................................................................................3
1.5 Significance of the study....................................................................................................3
1.6 Hypothesis.........................................................................................................................3
CHAPTER TWO .....................................................................................................................4
LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................4
2.0 Introduction........................................................................................................................4
2.1 Review of transport............................................................................................................4
2.2 Review of boda boda..........................................................................................................4
2.3 Review of boda boda accidents .........................................................................................5
CHAPTER THRE....................................................................................................................7
METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................7
3.0 Introduction........................................................................................................................7
3.1 Research design..................................................................................................................7
3.2 Data types and sources ......................................................................................................7
3.3 Area of the study ................................................................................................................7
3.4 Data Presentation and Analysis........................................................................................7
3.5 .Determining the relationship between injuries obtained and the death rates. ...........8
3.6 Hypothesis...........................................................................................................................8
3.6.1 Hypothesis: Testing for trend in injuries caused by accidents. ..................................8
v
3.7Forecasting theinjuries caused by bodabodas..................................................................9
CHAPTER FOUR..................................................................................................................12
4.0 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ..........................................................................................12
4.1 Relationship between injuries obtained and the death cases. ......................................12
4.1.1Scatter plot graph showing the relationship between injuries obtained and the
death cases. .............................................................................................................................12
4.2 trend analysis of injuries caused by bodabodas. ...........................................................13
4.3 Establishing The Model...................................................................................................14
4.3.1Forecasting Using Model Formulation. .......................................................................14
4.4Testing For Independence Of Residuals .........................................................................15
4.5Forecasts for Injury Rates From 2014-2016...................................................................15
CHAPTER FIVE ...................................................................................................................16
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..............16
5.0 Introduction......................................................................................................................16
5.1 Summary of findings........................................................................................................16
5.2 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................16
5.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................................16
REFERENCES.......................................................................................................................18
vi
List of tables
Table 4. 1: results from the spearman’s rank correlation between injuries obtained and
the death cases ........................................................................................................................12
Table 4. 2: testing for trend of injuries using runs test ......................................................13
Table 4. 3: Testing for trend in the series using Dickey Fuller test...................................13
Table 4. 4: Results from the model.......................................................................................15
Table 4. 5: forecasts for the injury rates that were predicted by the model. ...................15
vii
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.0 Introduction
This study was aimed at analysing accidents caused by bodaboda transport in Kampala over a
period of time (2000-2012).
This study was mainly quantitative and it requires summarising the research findings and
making conclusions.
This section presents the background of the study, statement of the problem, objectives, study
and significance of the study.
1.1Background to the study
Bodabodas operate where more conventional services are uneconomic or physically
impossible. They are found in urban and rural areas where they act primarily as feeder
services to the towns or major public transport routes. Because of their limited capacity
travel costs per km are 2-7 times those of large capacity buses, but cheaper than sole hire
taxis. Their popularity derives from the convenience they offer and ability to meet
demands that other services cannot.
However their operation has caused more harm than good through causing a lot of
accidents due to the fact that those who operate these means of transport (motorists) have
little or no education regarding the transport sector. Thus there is a need to develop a
suitable solution to the problems they cause, e.g. accidents.
The possible causes of these accidents include
•
Poor weather conditions;
•
Not utilizing a turn signal;
•
Lane splitting, i.e. when a motorcyclist drives between two lanes;
•
Ignoring traffic conditions;
•
Ignoring traffic signs;
•
Disobeying speed limitations;
1
•
Driving on the wrong side of the road;
•
Not seeing a motorcyclist due to glare or other view obstructions;
•
Inexperienced motorists;
•
Driving while under the influence of drugs;
However, the primary reason for motorcycle accidents is that motorcycles offer little
protection when a collision occurs. Although helmets can save lives, motorcyclists have little
else to rely on should a crash occur.
1.2 Problem statement
Bodabodatransport services are a Ugandan innovation that has grown from small
beginnings to a countrywide means of transport.
Bodabodas are a good form of transport used to transport both people and cargo within
areas in and around Kampala, Uganda at large.
However their operations have become a necessary evil due to the fact that it contributes
much to road accidents in Uganda.
1.3 Objectives of the study
Main objective
•
To analyse accidents caused by bodaboda transport in Kampala over a period of
time.(2000-2012)
Specific objectives
•
To determine the trend of injuries (fatal and minor) causedby boda boda accidents
from 2000 to 2012.
•
To determine whether there is a significant relationship between injuries obtained and
the death rates.
•
To establish a time series model that predicts accident rate reducing over time.
2
1.4 Scope of the study
The study was mainly quantitative and secondary data was used. The study focussed on
accidents caused by bodaboda in Kampala district.
1.5 Significance of the study
The study will help relevant authorities like the Uganda Police among others to develop
measures to curb the problem and also revise the existing policies as regards road transport,
bodabodas mainly.
The study will also serve as a basis for further research by scholars, policy makers and other
interested groups.
1.6 Hypothesis
Ho1: there is a trend in injuries caused by accidents
Ho2: there is no relationship between injuries obtained and the death rates.
3
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.0 Introduction
This chapter explains the concepts of the study and examines available literature
2.1 Review of transport
Johnson (1940) defines transport as the carriage, conveyance or transfer of persons or
property from one place to another. In other words its the process of movement of goods,
services or passengers from mulitiple origins to mulitiple destinations. Transport worldwide
is a customer self-service or both, whose consumption is direct and non storable. It has a
permissive rather than a deterministic role in an economy. It is characterised by a derived
demand because it is not an end in itself but more of a means.
In economic terms, hoyle and knowles (1998) point out that travel is an intermediate good
because demand for travel is derived from demand for other spatially separated goods and
services. They further stressed that this purpose that it is necessary to engage in spatially
dispersed activities like work, shopping, visitng friends etc.
Transport is civilisation. Without transport there can never be civilisation and development.
Munby(1968) asserts that, “transport is part of daily rhythm of life. Mobility is a fundamental
human activity and need, but it is restricted by the friction of distance.”
In an economy, the transport sector accelerates the development of other sectors like
agriculture, industry, informal etc. In every economy a considerable portion of the population
is employed in the transport sector, thereby acting as their main source of income.
Evelyne(1984) points out that “in every nation’s economy, atleast 6% of the total labour
force is employed in the transport sector”
2.2 Review of boda boda
Bodabodaservices are known to have originated in the Busia County of Tororo District in
Eastern Uganda in the mid-1960s [MalmbergCalvo 1994]. Confusingly both bicycle
andmotorcycle services are often known by the same name bodaboda, although Machala
4
(Western Uganda) or zabala(Mukono District) are preferred in some areas for the motorcycle
services [Leyland 1999].
The boda bodas are part of the african bicycle culture; they started in the 1960s and 1970s
and are still spreading from their origin on the kenyan-ugandan border to other regions. The
name originated from a need to transport people across the “no-man’s land” between the
border posts without the paper work involved
with using motor vehicles crossing the
international border. This started in the southern border crossing town of Busia
(kenya/uganda), where there is over half a mile between the gates, and quickly spread to the
northern border town of Malaba(kenya). The bicycle owners would shout out bodaboda(border-to-border) to potential customers . Leyland (1999)
Bodabodatransport services are a Ugandan innovation that has grown from small beginnings
in the 1960s in the border region with Kenya (Malmberg-Calvo, 1994). The term itself is a
corruption of the English ‘border border’. They mainly provide a passenger taxi service,
although they can sometimes be hired to move goods. The original services were provided on
a man’s bicycle.
With the high rate of unemployment, this fast-growing means of transport employs a bulk of
youth in Uganda. About 80 percent of young people between 20 to 30 years old are earning a
living by picking up and dropping off passengers
2.3 Review of boda boda accidents
Despite their ease at snaking through difficult areas in Uganda, boda bodas use has become
the leading cause of deaths and injuries on most roads. It has led the national referral hospital
to set up a special ward to handle victims of boda boda related accidents
The 2011 annual traffic report showed that a total of 1762 serious accidents involving
motorbikes occurred in Kampala that year. It was also reported that urban areas have the
highest concentration of boda bodas, and the largest number of injuries reported. This is
because riders often flout traffic laws, running traffic lights at city road junctions and driving
on the wrong side.
5
A survey carried out by the Ministry of works and transport in 2012 indicated that 50
motorcyclists died and a further 1,138 were injured in road crashes. This was 16 percent of all
deaths and 9 percent of all reported injuries on our roads.
Between 10 and 20 victims of boda boda accidents are received at Mulago hospital on a daily
basis, a survey indicates.
It also indicates that 20 percent of the victims are left disabled, 60 percent of the hospital
budget is now used to treat trauma and injuries caused by these accidents.
However, there have been several campaigns like the Global Helmet Initiative that have been
structured in order to minimize these injuries, through encouraging bodaboda drivers to wear
helmets.
A study conducted by the Injury Control Center Uganda (ICCU) at the national referral
hospital showed a decline in the injuries caused by boda bodas by 9.5 percent.
6
CHAPTER THRE
METHODOLOGY
3.0 Introduction
This section involves the methodology that was followed to implement the study. It includes
the research design of the study, data type and sources, data collection methods, data
processing and analysis.
3.1 Research design
This study was mainly quantitative in nature
3.2 Data types and sources
Data was mainly quantitative in nature and it was obtained from records that are available in
main police stations in Kampala and hospitals where the casualties of these accidents are
being treated e.g. Mulago hospital
3.3 Area of the study
This study was mainly on accidents caused by bodaboda in Kampala district, Metropolitan
Area.
3.4 Data Presentation and Analysis
The data was presented using descriptive statistics and graphics, in particular the sequence
plot for the number of cases and residuals. The sequence chart enables examination of the
series to make some characterization. For example is there trend? The tables present the
descriptive statistics of the data by year.
The data was analysed using STATA for window, mainly STATA Trend Analysis techniques
for time series analysis as well as non-parametric tests:
7
3.5 .Determining the relationship between injuries obtained and the death rates.
This involved two tools; scatter plot and spearman correlation. The scatter plot shows the
direction of the injuries in the separate i.e. who were injured and those that died while the
spearman correlation goes further to determine the statistical significance of the relationship.
3.6 Hypothesis
Ho; there is no relationship between injuries obtained and the death rates.
Computing the Spearman correlation, ρ .
This involves computing the correlation coefficient, ρ and a t-value read from the t-statistical
table to determine significance.
=1
Where;
²)/( ( ²
(6
1))
is the number of data points.
Is the difference between the trend and its corresponding rank.
/ ,
Rejection criteria: reject Ho if
/
≥ρ
However, this part of analysis was carried out using STATA software. At 95% level of
confidence, the spearman correlation coefficient was obtained and its significance
determined.
Rejection criteria; reject Ho if p-value >=0.05
3.6.1 Hypothesis: Testing for trend in injuries caused by accidents.
This test was based on precision of non-parametric test using runs test. This test was based on
product moment correlation co-efficient (r) as seen below
Ho: There is no trend in injuries caused by accidents
Ha: There is trend in injuries caused by accidents.
For time series data Ytwhere t=1, 2, 3……….n, the following will be computed
Stt=
-
(
)
, Syy =
–
(
)
8
Sty =
,r=
,
T=
This test was implemented using STATA
Decision rule:Ho: is rejected if p<0.05
Where p is the significance value and α = 0.05 (the level of significance)
Conclusion: If Ho was rejected, we concluded with 95% confidence that trend exists in
injuries caused by accidents.
3.7Forecasting the injuries caused by bodabodas.
In order to achieve the objective of establishing a model for forecasting, analysis followed the
box Jenkins methodology (ARIMA). This is a try and error process and was executed in the
STATA software. The following steps were undertaken in ARIMA
•
Data entry
Upon importing data (years and completion rates) in STATA from EXCEL, a time variable
for months was generated and formatted. This was carried out by the commands gen years= t
(2000t1) +_n-1 and format years %tm respectively. The time variable was then declared for
Identification in STATA; by the command tsset years.
•
Checking for stationarity.
The hypotheses were as follows;
Ho; the series is not trended (series is stationary)
Ha; the series is trended (series is not stationary)
•
Testing for stationarity- Turning point test.
This involved first establishing the number of turning points in the data set, U. The mean µ
and standard error S are established as below.
9
=
= 2(
2)/3
(16
29)/90
A z-statistic was then computed as below.
= |(
Rejection criteria; Reject Ho if
)|
≥
However, this part of analysis was carried out by the Augmented Dick Fuller test, (ADF).
Reject the null hypothesis if the Mackinnon approximate p value for Z (t) < 0.05 and
conclude that the series is stationary.
•
Model identification.
This involved constructing the AC and PAC functions. A model was identified basing on the
spikes on the graphs. The model may be a pure AR or pure MA or an ARMA. Furthermore,
tentative values for p and q were chosen. An ARIMA regression is then run to establish the
model.
(
•
)
+
+……+
+
+…….+
.
Diagnostic checking of the model.
Firstly, depending on the values of p and q, a check on whether the constants satisfy the
stationarity and invertibility conditions was carried out.
Secondly, if the above conditions are met, then a white noise test for normality of residuals
followed. The hypotheses used were as follows;
Ho; there is no white noise.
Ha; there is white noise.
Reject the null hypothesis if the portmanteau approximate p value >0.05
10
•
Prediction
The model was then used to predict the original series by the command predict YT,y. A graph
to show the closeness of prediction was then constructed by the commandtwoway (tsline
completion rates). The model was now ready for forecasting
11
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
4.1 Relationship between injuries obtained and the death cases.
This relationship was established by using the spearman rank correlation and constructing a
scatter plot for both variables with the aid of statistical software, STATA. The results are as
below;
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
4.1.1Scatter plot graph showing the relationship between injuries obtained and the
death cases.
2000
2005
years
injuries
2010
2015
Fitted values
The graph above shows a positive relationship betweeninjuries caused by boda bodas and the
death cases also reported. To establish the significance and magnitude of the relationship,
spearman rank correlation was used and the results are shown in the table below.
Table 4. 1: Results from the spearman’s rank correlation between injuries obtained and
the death cases
Rho
P value
0.3022
0.0000
Variable
13
12
The results from the table above indicate that there was a strong positive significant
relationship between accidents caused by bodabodas and the death cases reported,
(p-value=0.0000, r=0.3022). This means that the injury cases have been increasing over the
recent past.
4.2 trend analysis of injuries caused by bodabodas.
Table 4. 2: Testing for trend of injuries using runs test
13
Observations
Number of runs
5
Probability
0.006
Z value
-1.44
From table above, since the probability is less than 0.05, we reject the null and conclude that
trend exists in accidents caused by bodabodas. This implies that death cases are consistent
with accidents caused by the bodabodas in Uganda.
Table 4. 3: Testing for trend in the series using Dickey Fuller test
12
Number of observations
Lags
0
t-statistic
-2.167
P value
0.2185
Also using dickey fuller test proved that the series were trended and this implies that there is
trend in accidents caused by bodaboda riders in Kampala as above.
13
4.3 Establishing The Model
So as to forecast, the data had to be made stationary (without trend) and this was done by first
differencing the data and after test again by using dickey fuller and the results were as below
Number of observations
11
Lags
0
t-statistic
-4.398
P value
0.0003
The ADF test indicates that the series is stationary since the Mackinnon approximate pvalue(0.0003) is less than 0.05.
4.3.1Forecasting Using Model Formulation.
In establishing the ARIMA model for forecasting accident movements caused by bodabodas,
the parameters p and q were chosen. These were chosen depending on the nature of auto
correlation and partial auto correlation functions which are constructed using the STATA
software. These are shown below;
From above, the AC and PAC showed that the appropriate model was ARIMA (1, 2)
The model for predicting accident rate decrease released the following results
14
Table 4. 4: Results from the model
Number of observations
12
Log likelihood
-82.78121
Prob>chi(2)
0.1169
Coefficient of constant
18.20208
Coefficient (L1)
-0.6857315
Coefficient (L2)
-0.2608542
The model was then displayed as
= 18.20208
0.6857315
0.2608542
4.4Testing For Independence Of Residuals
This was established using the Portmanteau test for white noise and the results below were
obtained
t-statistic
2.3598
Probability>chi2(4)
0.6699
From the table above, the p-value was greater than 0.05, meaning that it was a very good
model for forecasting (p=0.6699).
4.5Forecasts for Injury Rates From 2014-2016
Table 4. 5: forecasts for the injury rates that were predicted by the model.
Year
Injury rates
2014
230
2015
150
2016
99
From the table above, this shows that the injury rates will have decreased gradually by the
year 2016.
15
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.0 Introduction
This chapter presents the summary, conclusions and recommendations of the study.
5.1 Summary of findings
There was a positive relationship betweeninjuries obtained and the death cases.This
meansthat the injury cases have been increasing over the recent past.
The data was stationary using dickey fuller unit root test with the presence of no trend using
the runs test at 5% level of significance.
Box Jenkins procedure was used for forecasting. Since the data was stationary, the
appropriate model was chosen using AC and PAC plots. ARIMA (1, 2) was chosen and used.
Diagnostic checking was done by use of portmanteau and period gram white noise and
forecast were decreasing showing that the injury cases will be at a reducible rate.
5.2 Conclusions
Accident cases were stationary with no trend and seasonality was not present in the model.
The forecast were just decreasing.
In conclusion, the forecasted values indicated that accident cases caused by bodabodas were
decreasing and this shows that injury cases will decrease as well as the death rates.
5.3 Recommendations
Further studies should be carried out by researchers and policy makers on how to reduce
injuries caused by bodbodas around Kampala. This can be done by introduction of
government policies for example improving on the sign posts i.e. zebra crossing, traffic lights
and others.
The government through Kampala capital city authority (kcca) should emphasize that most of
the bodabodas should at least be provided with more requirements that should enable them to
16
reduce accidents like provision of helmets, rider jackets marked with numbers so as incase of
any accident, that rider will be penalised. .
The government through Kampala capital city authority (kcca) should also put
implementation of tough policies by parliament and other stakeholders to ensure that
accidents have reduced. Such policies include sensitization of people and riders on the dis
advantages of injuries caused along the roads.
17
REFERENCES
•
(MBChB), N. E. (n.d.). Patterns of injuries after road crashes involving Boda bodas. Kampala:
Makerere University.
•
(2012). A cross-sectional retrospective study of boda boda injuries at Mulago hospital.
Kampala.
•
Howe, J. (2008). Uganda's Rural and Urban low capacity transport services.
•
Kitaka, A. M. (2011). Promoting Non Motorised Transport- A case study of the NMT Pilot
Corridor. Kampala Capital City Authority.
•
Police, U. (2011). Annual Crime and Traffic/ Road safety report.
•
Police, U. (2012). Annual Crime and Traffic/ Road safety report.
18