Flight
Cancellations
Solve It!
COMM1110
Word Count:
Reza Sariya Sultana
Statistical Toolbox
Conducting a multiple linear regression with ‘Cancellations’ as the dependent variable and ‘Weather’,
‘Mechanical Failures’ and ‘Staff Shortages’ as independent variables, results are shown in tables 1.1 to
1.3.
The data in Table 1.1 suggests a strong relationship
between dependent variable ‘Cancellations’ and
independent variable ‘Weather’. The p-value for the
‘Weather’ variable is extremely close to zero which is
lower than usual significance level of 0.05. This suggests
that the relationship between the variables is highly
significant, and we can reject null hypothesis.
Furthermore, the coefficient of 2.304 for the ‘Weather’
variables suggests a positive relationship between the
variables, further indicating that if weather conditions
were to worsen, the quantity of cancellations are also
probable to increase. The relatively small standard error
in comparison to the coefficient value indicates that
the effect which ‘Weather’ has on ‘Cancellations’
according to the statistics is quite accurate. Lastly, the
approximately zero p-value and high t-statistic value
suggests a strong correlation between the variables.
The data in Table 1.2 suggests that ‘Mechanical
Failures’ are a highly significant predictor of
‘Cancellations’. The p-value is extremely small,
approximately zero which is lower than significance
level of 0.05 allowing us to reject the null hypothesis
that there is no relationship between the variables.
Also, the coefficient of 7.1317 for the ‘Mechanical
Failure’ variable indicates a positive slope, which
suggests a direct relationship between the variable of
‘Mechanical Failures’ and the number of cancellations.
The small standard error compared to the coefficient
value suggests that the effect which ‘Weather’ has on
‘Cancellations’ is relatively accurate. Additionally,
considering the low p-value and high t-statistic value
means that we can confidently deduce the high
correlation between the variables.
Weather
P-Value
9.8816E-175
Coefficient
2.3043
Standard Error
0.0222
T-Statistic Value
103.9747
Table 1.1 Regression values of Weather
variable
Mechanical Failure
P-Value
2.66231E-35
Coefficient
7.1317
Standard Error
0.4670
T-Statistic Value
15.2696
Table 1.2 Regression values of Mechanical
Failure variable
The data in Table 1.3 suggests a highly statistically
significant relationship between dependent variable
‘Cancellations’ and independent variable ‘Staff
Shortages’. The p-value for the ‘Staff Shortage’ variable
is lower than 0.05 and close to zero suggesting a highly
significant relationship between the variables The
positive slope of the coefficient also confirms this
relationship, suggesting that if staff shortages were to
increase, the number of cancellations would also
increase. The effect which the staff shortage has on
cancellations is proven to be accurate due to the small
standard error. The low p-value and high t-statistic value
suggests a strong correlation between the variables.
Staff Shortage
P-Value
7.7162E-173
Coefficient
2.0628
Standard Error
0.0203
T-Statistic Value
101.6696
Table 1.3 Regression values of Staff
Shortage variable
Additional Findings
Conducting a multiple linear regression with ‘Staff Shortage’ as the dependent variable and ‘Weather’
as the independent variable, we can deduce a strong statistic relationship between the variables
(Shown in Table 2.1)
Weather and Staff Shortage
P-Value
5.6792E-142
Coefficient
1.0949
Standard
Error
0.0156
T-Statistic
Value
Confidence
Interval
70.2923
R-Squared
Value
0.9615
95%
Table 2.1 Regression values of dependent variable
‘Staff Shortage’ and independent variable ‘Weather’
The results of the multiple linear regression suggest that there
is a high correlation to the weather having an impact on
the severity of staff shortages. The very low p-value suggests
statistical significance, accompanied by the high t-statistic
value indicates high correlation. The co-efficient of 1.0949
suggests a positive relationship and due to the very low
standard error, the effects portrayed in the date are highly
probable to be accurate. A positive, relatively strong, and
significant relationship between weather and staff shortage
is shown through the confidence interval of 95%. The Rsquared value of 0.9615 indicates that 96.15% of the
variation in staff shortages can be affected by the weather
variable. Thus, we are able to make an inference that staff
shortages are highly affected by poor weather.
Ethical Toolbox
Can Staff be Incentivised for Less Cancellations? A Utilitarian Perspective.
Step 1.
The increased incidence of flight cancellations since the COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected the
commercial airline industry. Multiple stakeholders are directly affected by the increase in flight cancellations
including internal stakeholders such as owners, management and employees which are struggling to adapt to
dropped demand of airline services due to fear of COVID-19 and well as restrictions. As a result of this, the
industry has faced massive losses which in turn effects their abilities to pay dividends to shareholders and
investors as well as their ability to hire and support employees. Furthermore, consumers are greatly affected by
flight cancellations as they may not be able to travel.
Step 2.
There are multiple assumptions which relate to this situation. We assume that staff actions and behaviors have
an extensive impact on flight cancellations. We are also assuming that staff will respond positively to such
incentives for flight cancellations to be reduced, they may also respond irresponsibly and cause higher risks of
poor safety regarding flights. These assumptions may need to be further researched as it is still unclear whether
staff actions can have a major influence on flight cancellations. Biases which are involved include
confirmation bias, availability heuristic and overconfidence bias.
Step 3.
Airline Staff have the right of safe working conditions and to be compensated fairly. Incentive programs must
be organised to be fair and safe for staff and include extensive training in order to prioritise safety and avoid
unethical behaviour. Passengers have the right of safety regarding their health especially post COVID-19 and
such incentive programs must not negatively affect this. The management of AAA have the right to operate
their business safely with legal and ethical considerations in mind. They have the right to make decisions
regarding employees work and payment and must operate responsibly
Step 4.
Staff may be incentivized for reduced cancellations through implementing monetary or non-monetary incentives to staff based
on their performance and its effect on the reduction of flight cancellations. They may introduce further staff training to reduce
cancellations to promote ethical work behaviors. If training is not involved it may allow for the consequence of poor safety and
unethical work practices to take place in order to gain incentives. Staff may also disapprove of incentives and may have an
overall poor effect on workplace culture and staff motivations
Overall, from an utilitarian ethical standpoint, staff can be incentivized to reduce flight cancellations however it
must be ensured that the correct training and procedures are being taken place to avoid unethical workplace
behaviors which may negatively effect the safety of staff and consumers. It is also recommended that further
research be done into whether staff has a direct influence or causation on the number of flight cancellations as it
may be more successful to consider the impacts of weather and mechanical failures.
Information Toolbox
The increased incidence of flight cancellations since the COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected the commercial airline
industry. The following recommendations will help minimise flight cancellations considering the data in the Statistic Toolbox
and our findings throughout this investigation.
Increase in COVID19 cases
AAA may choose to introduce staff incentives to reduce flight
Stricter restrictions
and quarantine
protocols
cancellations, mainly to improve staff shortages as they are highly
correlated to flight cancellations and poor weather. Staff incentives to
work more frequently in weather conditions may greatly impact on the
Effects of COVID19
frequency of flight cancellations. Furthermore, investing in HR
management to improve workplace culture and create a positive staff
Cleaning schedules
and safety procedures
Closed borders
experience may further improve staff shortage issues.
AAA may also invest in improving the mechanics of their planes and
input frequent daily checks and repairs on their machinery to lower the
Less demand for
travel
Increased Flight
Cancellations
Machinery Issues
frequency of mechanical failures, this may be completed through hiring
more engineers and providing them incentives to work more frequently
Weather
and to a higher quality.
Actionable next steps for the AAA is to put in place such decisions and
Existing Factors
Staff Shortages
document its impacts and progress to identify its effectiveness. They
may also choose to hire more management staff for this purpose to look
Low Flight Revenue
over workplace practices and its impacts of flight cancellations.
Aircraft Maintainance
Schedules