Einführung in die Makroökonomie
Vorlesung 8
Universität Bern
Frühjahrssemester 2023
Carlos Lenz
1
The term structure of interest rates
Nominal interest rates vary depending on …
• … the term to maturity of the loan
• … the risk associated with the borrower
• … the expected inflation
• …
The term structure represents the link between interest rates for
different terms to maturity. A long term interest rate is an average of
(expected) shorter term interest rates:
2-year rate from 2021 to 2023
0
1-year rate from 2021 to 2022
1
expected 1-year rate from 2022 to 2023
2
Years
2
The yield curve represents the term structure
A yield curve represents
• the term structure of interest rates
• for a given borrower (e.g. the government)
• at a given date (e.g. Mid-April 2023)
3
Monetary policy and the yield curve
%
Changes of the
policy rate affect
the short end of
the yield curve
0
Expectations
about future policy
rates affect the
curvature of the
yield curve
10
The term premium
affects the longer
end of the yield
curve
20
Years to maturity
4
12.8 Conclusion
• Policymakers exploit the stickiness of
inflation.
– Changes in the nominal interest rate change
the real interest rate.
• Through the Phillips curve booms and
recessions alter the evolution of inflation.
• Because inflation evolves gradually, the
only way to reduce it is to slow the
economy.
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13.1 Introduction
• In this chapter, we learn:
– With systematic monetary policy, we can combine
the IS curve and the MP curve to get an aggregate
demand (AD) curve.
– That the Phillips curve can be reinterpreted as an
aggregate supply (AS) curve.
– How the AD and AS curves represent an intuitive
version of the short-run model that describes the
evolution of the economy in a single graph.
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• Question for this chapter: If we could
formulate a systematic policy in
response to the various kinds of
shocks that can possibly hit the
economy, what would the policy look
like?
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Mandat der SNB
Art. 99.2 Bundesverfassung
Die Schweizerische Nationalbank führt als
unabhängige Zentralbank eine Geld- und
Währungspolitik, die dem Gesamtinteresse des
Landes dient; sie wird unter Mitwirkung und Aufsicht
des Bundes verwaltet.
Art. 5.1 Nationalbankgesetz
Die Nationalbank führt die Geld- und Währungspolitik
im Gesamtinteresse des Landes. Sie gewährleistet die
Preisstabilität. Dabei trägt sie der konjunkturellen
Entwicklung Rechnung.
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Geldpolitisches Konzept der SNB
Zur Umsetzung des gesetzlichen Auftrags verwendet die SNB
ein geldpolitisches Konzept
•
•
in der jetzigen Form seit Anfang 2000
Ziel: mittelfristige Preisstabilität
3 Elemente:
•
•
•
Definition der Preisstabilität: Inflation unter 2%, aber positiv
Grundlage für Beurteilung des Teuerungsdrucks: Mittelfristige,
bedingte Inflationsprognose (wird quartalsweise publiziert)
Umsetzung der Geldpolitik: Festlegung des SNB-Leitzinses.
SNB strebt an, besicherte kurzfristige Geldmarktzinsen nahe am
SNB-Leitzins zu halten. SNB kann bei Bedarf Wechselkurs oder
Zinsniveau auch mit zusätzlichen geldpolitischen Massnahmen
beeinflussen.
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Das geldpolitische Konzept der SNB
Preisstabilität unter Beachtung der
Konjunktur
Strategie
Zwischenziel
Beurteilung des Teuerungsdrucks:
mittelfristige Inflationsprognose
Operatives Ziel
Implementierung
Kurzfristige Geldmarktsätze nahe
am SNB-Leitzins
Das geldpolitische Konzept der
SNB umfasst diese drei Elemente:
Endziel
Instrumente
Offenmarktoperationen,
Verzinsung der Sichtguthaben,…
10
Inflation in der Schweiz seit 1970
(und Definition der Preisstabilität seit 2000)
11
Beurteilung des Teuerungsdrucks:
Bedingte Inflationsprognose
12
Umsetzung der Geldpolitik:
Kurzfristige Geldmarktsätze nahe beim SNB-Leitzins
13
13.2 Monetary Policy Rules
and Aggregate Demand
• The short-run model consists of three
basic equations:
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• The model implies that high short-run
output leads to an increase in inflation.
• The central bank chooses how to make
this trade-off by choosing the interest rate.
• A monetary policy rule
– A set of instructions that determines the
stance of monetary policy for a given situation
that might occur in the economy.
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• The rule we consider is that the stance of
monetary policy depends on
– Current inflation
– Inflation target
• If inflation is above the target
– The real interest rate should be high
• If inflation is below the target
– The real interest rate should be low
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• Simple Monetary Policy Rule
Real
interest
rate
Long-run
interest rate
Current
inflation
Inflation
target
Parameter, governs how
aggressively monetary
policy responds to inflation
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The AD Curve
• We can substitute the monetary policy
rule into the IS curve.
• The resulting equation is the aggregate
demand (AD) curve.
– Says short-run output is a function of the
rate of inflation
18
19
Moving along the AD Curve
• A change in inflation
– A movement along the AD curve
• Changes in 𝑚𝑚
� or 𝑏𝑏�
– Alter the slope of the AD curve
20
21
22
Shifts of the AD Curve
• AD curve shifts caused by:
– Changes in the parameter 𝑎𝑎
�
– Changes in the target rate of inflation 𝜋𝜋
�
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13.3 The Aggregate Supply Curve
• The aggregate supply (AS) curve is
– The price-setting equation used by firms
– The Phillips curve with a new name
• Equation:
Current
inflation
Inflation in
last time
period
Parameters
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25
• The point in the graph where short-run
output equals zero is equal to the inflation
rate in the previous period.
• The AS curve will shift due to
– The inflation rate changing over time
– Change in the inflation shock parameter
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13.4 The AS/AD Framework
• Combining the AS and AD curve
– Two equations
– Two unknowns
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The Steady State
• In the steady state
– the endogenous variables are constant over time
– no shocks to the economy.
– the inflation rate must be constant and short-run
output is equal to zero.
• Steady state implies:
28
The AS/AD Graph
• The AS curve slopes upward
– implication of price-setting behavior of
firms embodied in the Phillips curve
• The AD curve slopes downward
– Due to the response of policymakers to
inflation.
• The vertical axis represents inflation
• The horizontal axis represents short-run
output.
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