A Review of the Health and Trends of the Fintech Industry November 2022 The Changing Fintech Landscape Founders Focus on Fundamentals On Hold, Backlog Builds Building for a Crypto Future The State of Fintech: 2022 2 This time last year, I was writing a much different cover letter. The innovation economy was at the peak of its best funding year ever, and fintech was at the center of that success. Companies in our industry were raising money at a breakneck pace for staggering valuations. Fast-forward to now and market conditions have changed dramatically. Founders are telling us about plans to “trim fat” and extend runway as consumer demand softens. While the public markets grapple with a correction, more people want to know: “Has the fintech bubble popped?” From a valuations standpoint, you might see an easy answer. High-profile companies in our space have seen their public valuations fall sharply over the last 12 months. While down rounds are still rare, it’s clear that valuations are resetting in the private markets. But that’s only part of the story. Tough market conditions provide the best conditions to grow resilient startups. That’s what we’re seeing now. A healthy pipeline of promising new fintech companies is rising to the occasion, while more established companies are seeking new growth opportunities to capture market share. In this year’s The State of Fintech report, we dive into these trends and leverage SVB’s unmatched proprietary data to offer a unique perspective on the fintech industry. Investment may be cooling from the record high in 2021, but not by much. Venture Capital (VC) investors are on pace to deploy $38B into US fintech this year, the second-highest annual total for the US. However, capital deployments are now tapering with Q3 investment down 42% QoQ. In our benchmarking section, we detail which subsectors are faring best, indexing key performance indicators (KPIs) like cash runway and revenue growth. Our exits section details the backlog of IPO-ready fintech companies and the growing stable of unicorns. Our spotlight on Web3 takes a closer look at decentralized finance (DeFi), blockchain developer activity and the intersection between corporations and crypto. We wrote this section before the recent collapse of FTX created fresh uncertainty in the space. While it's too soon to know how this event will impact the future of crypto, we believe the themes we discuss in the report — around regulation, compliance and fraud prevention — are even more relevant in the wake of such a high-profile failure. There’s no denying it’s been a challenging year, but market moments like these can also present a golden opportunity for differentiation. Fintech infrastructure, commercial lending and regtech are areas with strong growth potential in the near term. Looking ahead into 2023, the economic picture remains foggy, but the long-term resilience of the fintech sector is unwavering. Dan Allred Senior Market Manager, Fintech Silicon Valley Bank The State of Fintech: 2022 3 The TheFuture State of of Fintech: Climate 2022 Tech 4 Change in US Interest Rates1 VC-backed companies that leveraged the free cash environment to offer products such as buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans and non-interest-bearing checking accounts may now face stiffer competition from traditional banks that have deeper deposits — a cheap source of capital. Fintech companies can pivot to meet these challenges, but changes take time. And retaining customers could require startups to spend heavily, and even take losses, at a time when equity costs are high and investors are valuing profitability more than growth. The uncertainty is weighing heavily on fintech stocks, wiping out most gains fintech companies saw during the recent bull market. The STOXX Global Fintech Index, for example, outperformed the S&P 500 until November 2021 but has traded at a discount ever since. Trends that benefited fintech companies during the run-up of the past decade are now reversing themselves. Consumer interest rates are up across all categories. Household budgets are tightening as debt payments grow and inflation-adjusted wages drop. Mortgage rates, for example, have more than doubled in the last year. Delinquency rates for consumer debt are also increasing with delinquent consumer assets up 34% since Q2 2021. $40B 3.0% +34% $35B 0% -1% $20B 1.5% $15B 1.0% $10B $5B $31B +98 bps +75 bps 2.0% $25B $25B Fed begins rate hikes 2.5% $30B $23B +171 bps +300 bps $28B +313 bps $29B Mortgage rates double from low to 6.90% $26B 1% Business Loan Delinquency Rate Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Since Feb ’22 $33B 2% Fed cuts rates at the start of the pandemic Mortgage rates hit an all-time low of 2.67% Total Delinquent Consumer Assets $29B 3% Fed Funds Rate $30B After years of consistent growth, an economic slowdown is well underway. US inflation reached a 39-year high in November 2021 and has stayed stubbornly put ever since, unmoved by six consecutive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The hikes pushed the benchmark lending rate from near zero in February to 3.83% in November, the fastest increase since 1980. Concerns over inflation, rising rates and geopolitical tension have caused public markets to enter bear-market territory. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices are on pace for their worst annual returns since 2008. One of the most exposed sectors to these macro forces is fintech. Credit Cards Mortgage (30 Yrs.) $39B Personal Loans (24 Mos.) Auto Loans (60 Mos.) US Loan Delinquencies2 $B -2% 2020 2021 STOXX Global Fintech Index (Jan. ’20 = 0) 2021 2022 Federal Fund Rate Hikes4 Spread: STOXX Fintech Index to S&P 500 Index 4% 42.6% 43.6% 1983-84 1988-89 1993-95 1999-2000 2004-06 2015-19 2022 2022 Expected 5% 60% 40% Fastest increase since 1980 3% 20% 13.8% 2% 0% -14.3% -20% 0.0% 2020 2022 Returns of S&P 500 and STOXX Global Fintech Index Since Jan 20203 S&P 500 Index (Jan. ’20 = 0) 0.5% -18.6% -11.3% Nov. ’21–Sept. ’22: S&P 500 outperforms fintech sector -40% 2020 2021 2022 2023 1% 0% 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 Months Since Start of Rate Hike Notes: 1) One basis point (bps) is equivalent to 0.01%. Auto rates are for new vehicles. 2) Delinquent loans are past due 30 days or more. 3) Data aggregated to monthly average as of 10/10/2022. The STOXX index includes 172 companies involved in financial technology. 4) Change in monthly average of the daily Federal Funds Effective Rate. Expected rate based on median projection of the Federal Open Market Committee. Source: St. Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis. 32 36 The State of Fintech: 2022 5 US Timeline: The Rise of Fintech Companies and Key Regulatory Actions1 US VC Deals in Fintech TTM 2,500 The pace of fintech innovations such as digital wallets, peer-to-peer lending, commission-free stock trading and cryptocurrency has strained federal regulators’ ability to police them. While traditional financial institutions grappled with a mountain of new regulations following the Great Financial Crisis, fintech companies largely avoided such regulations to build tech platforms with less oversight than the large banks and institutions they were disrupting. The result is a shifting mesh of rules that are expensive for founders to navigate and complicated for consumers to understand. Fintechs today are overseen by dozens of federal agencies with broad mandates to protect consumers from data breaches, unfair lending and fraud, while also ensuring digital platforms don’t enable criminal activities like money laundering or avoiding international sanctions. Two companies that provide similar services may face vastly different regulatory regimes. Coinbase, for example, is registered as a money services business with the Treasury Department (the same as Western Union), while Robinhood, which also offers crypto trading, is registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). SoFi issues loans under its own US banking charter, while Chime offers loans through third-party banks. The legal risks are so fraught that many fintechs turn to regulatory tech companies to stay compliant. Now that economic uncertainty is mounting, federal oversight is only heating up. In September, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) signaled that greater scrutiny is coming for the short-term consumer loans known as BNPL, which aren’t required to give data to credit agencies. Popularity for BNPL skyrocketed during the pandemic, with originations jumping from 17 million loans in 2019 to 180 million in 2021 — a 10.6x increase. 2,000 US Fintech Unicorn Deals (Pre-Money Valuations) Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) defines cryptocurrencies as commodities under the Commodity Exchange Act. Dodd-Frank Act Section 1033 requires banks to provide consumers digital access to their financial records. 1,500 SEC, CFTC and FinCEN issue joint statement on digital assets. $24B $20B $13B $11B $9B $2B 0 2010 2011 $4B $2B $3B 2012 2013 2014 $8B $6B $6B $4B $5B $4B $1B $3B 2015 2016 US Regulations on Financial Services4 2017 $2B $2B 2018 16.5k 12.0k 30k 9.8k 0k 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2019 $400B $300B $200B $13B $11B $100B $7B $7B $0B 2020 2021 2022 2023 BNPL Loan Originations $24B 10.6x increase in BNPL loan originations from 2019 to 2021 180M $8B 20k 10k $5B $4B $2B BNPL Loan Volume The Dodd-Frank Act added 20k federal restrictions on banking, insurance and securities. $8B $7B CFPB announces greater scrutiny on BNPL. US BNPL Loan Originations and Volume Number of Restrictions by Agency 40k $22B $500B $35B $14B 500 50k Justice Department establishes crypto enforcement team Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) allows fintechs to apply for national bank charters. SEC publishes DAO 2 Report and issues guidance on ICOs. 3 Treasury Department issues guidance on virtual currency exchanges. CFPB is established. 1,000 Value of US VC-backed Fintech Companies TTM 6.6k $2B 3.8k 68M 17M 2019 2020 Notes: 1) Square became Block in 2021. Not shown: Stripe valued at $95B in March 2021. 2) Decentralized Autonomous Organization 3) Initial Coin Offering 4) The number of restrictions imposed by federal agencies overseeing the financial sector. Restrictions are the words “shall,” “must,” “may not,” “required,” and “prohibited” in regulations. Logos from top to bottom: SEC, CFPB, CFTC, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Source: Reghub.ai, CFPB, PitchBook and SVB analysis 2021 The State of Fintech: 2022 6 The TheFuture State of of Fintech: Climate 2022 Tech 7 US Fintech VC Investment Capital Invested Fintech was among the best-funded sectors in a record year for the innovation economy in 2021. Investment in fintechs jumped 2.5x from 2020 to 2021, while investment for all sectors increased 2x. Intense investor competition for deals caused valuations to balloon. By October 2021, the median Series C+ valuation was $965M, up 2x from October 2020. Yet the environment has changed in 2022. VC-backed valuations at all stages have started to decline as investors paused for the summer, hoping public markets would rebound. With no rally in sight, reality is setting in and valuations are retreating. The steepest declines in valuation have occurred for late-stage fintech companies, which are most susceptible to public market volatility and changes in the valuations of their public market comps. Enterprise value (EV) to next 12 months (NTM) revenue multiples for public fintech companies has declined 55% since the market peaked on January 3, 2022. While early stage valuations have declined, these companies are generally more sheltered as investors recognize that the early stage is a long-term game and can weather a down market — even benefiting from the availability of talent economic slowdowns present. However, valuations don’t tell the whole story. Anecdotally, investors are offering tougher terms with 1-2x liquidation preferences. Such a compromise can be acceptable for founders who want to avoid a down round and investors who protect themselves from downside risk. While down rounds are not generally reported in data, analysis of SVB call notes indicates that down rounds, flat rounds, inside rounds and extension rounds are being discussed more frequently, a sign that more companies are considering these measures. Deals Extrapolation 2,125 1,160 1,168 US Fintech Trailing 180-Day Pre-money Valuation Index1 1,215 2,005 300 Series Start Peak End Seed $7M $15M $13M $55M $38B 250 A $23M $63M 1,476 200 B $72M $263M $200M C+ $499M $965M $733M 150 100 $15B $17B $22B $56B $28B 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Median US Valuation Step-up by Series Seed to A Series A to B Series B to C 50 2020 2021 2022 Mentions of Down Rounds, Inside Rounds, Flat Rounds and Extensions2 Fintech 400% Frontier Tech Enterprise Software Consumer Internet 350% 500 300% 400 250% 200% 300 150% 200 100% 100 50% 0 Indexed to 100 Q1 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q2 Q3 2020 Notes: 1) As of Median pre-money valuation for the trailing 180 days, smoothed with a 30-day moving average. 2) Aggregated from SVB written call notes with private companies. Not taken from recordings. Trailing 6-months. Source: PitchBook, SVB proprietary data, and SVB analysis. Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 The State of Fintech: 2022 8 US VC Investment and Change in Deal Count by Fintech Subsector2 When it comes to funding, certain fintech subsectors have fared better than others. Blockchain, Crypto and Web3 companies have remained most resilient at attracting deal flow in 2022. These companies experienced the slightest drop in year-over-year (YoY) deal activity of any subsector but have gained billions in new investments, benefiting from crypto-specific VC funds that were raised in 2021. However, cracks began to show in Q3 following declines in crypto asset prices. Web3 posted large quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) declines in deal flow. The hardest hit subsectors in 2022 are those most exposed to the negative macro conditions impacting consumer demand. Consumer alternative lending and personal wealth management have both seen deal counts cut in half in 2022, with investment volume down by over a third. Consumer payment apps saw investment drop by 73% from 2021 to the extrapolated total for 2022. These sectors are being hampered by rising interest rates, tightening household budgets and down public markets. Robinhood, for example, lost 6.6 million users in 2022, dropping from 22.5 million in 2021 to 15.9 million this year.1 While consumer-facing apps are struggling to attract funding, B2B fintech companies have remained relatively robust. Commercial payments, commercial insuretech, and fintech infrastructure have benefited from increased interest in building the rails and infrastructure for enterprise fintech applications. We can see these trends play out in revenue growth rates for consumer and commercial fintech platforms. Consumer fintech saw substantially higher growth rates in 2019 and 2020 as consumers moved their spending, banking and investing to fintech platforms. However, starting in mid2021, revenue growth rates for both consumer and commercial sectors began to trend together as consumer adoption of fintech has slowed. Change in Deal Count Q4 2021 to Q3 2022 Capital Invested YTD as of Q3 2022 Change in Deal Count QoQ 2022 Full Year Outlook -4% -12% -20% -14% -17% -17% -38% -20% -39% -25% -27% -10% -29% -39% -36% -38% -24% -53% -39% -54% -25% Web3 with Fintech Applications Payments: Commercial Insuretech: Commercial Fintech Infrastructure Real Estate Fintech Insuretech: Consumer 10% Alternative Lending: Commercial Financial Business Process Software Payments Consumer Personal Finance Wealth Management Alternative Lending: Consumer US VC Investment by Customer Type Commercial Fintech Consumer Fintech 400 Notes: Significant overlap between Web3 and Blockchain and Crypto Consumer Fintech 160% 350 250 $10B | 33% $12B | 30% Median YoY US Revenue Growth by Customer Type Commercial Fintech 450 300 $7B $9B $2B $3B | -39% $2B $3B | -4% $3B $4B | -7% $3B $3B | -39% $1B $2B | -55% $2B $2B | 48% $3B $4B | 32% $782M $1B | -73% $3B $4B | -37% $647M $863M | -35% Blockchain and Crypto -36% -36% | ABC Change: Capital Invested 2021 to 2022 Outlook 140% Indexed to 100 120% 100% 200 80% 150 60% 100 40% 50 20% 0 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 Notes: 1) Estimate from BusinessofApps.com 2) Web3 companies overlap with other subsectors; Change in deal count compares Q4 2021 deal count to Q3 2022. Source: PitchBook, BusinessofApps.com, SVB Proprietary data and SVB analysis. 2020 2021 2022 The State of Fintech: 2022 9 VC-backed Fintech Cash Balances1 Share of US VC-backed Fintech with Less than 12 Months of Runway by Revenue2 Cash and Cash Equivalents Indexed to 100 in Q4 2019 TTM US VC Investment In Fintech As COVID-19 hit in early 2020, companies were advised to cut burn and raise 18-24 months of runway. Many companies did so successfully, and as a result, the number of companies that needed to raise capital within 12 months dropped significantly across all stages. When the worst-case scenario didn’t play out, operations returned to normal, but companies had stockpiles of cash in the bank. Not only had startups saved, many had also raised new rounds. The investment climate was going gangbusters. Companies could raise cheap equity (given the high valuations) and significant sums of capital. For example, Series B valuations peaked at a level 265% higher than the start of 2020. This led to a surge in cash balances for US VCbacked companies. They put the money to work, and burn rates climbed. Subsequently, remaining months liquidity (RML) began to fall — substantially. Payments companies, for example, had a median of 40 months runway at the height of the pandemic as demand for cashless technology skyrocketed and investors filled their coffers. As spending increased, cash runway for payments companies fell to 12 months by Q3 2022. Real estate fintech companies, by contrast, had 8 months runway in Q3 2022. Today, 44% of fintech companies with under $10M in revenue need to raise capital in the next 12 months. With top-tier investors such as Sequoia recommending 18-24 months of runway, these companies may face a tough fundraising environment as they look to extend runway without being labeled as distressed by VCs. We have also seen an increased interest in companies seeking non-dilutive financing, such as venture debt, to increase their cash runway. It’s becoming more common to stack a venture loan on top of a funding round as a way to maximize runway. 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 $60B $0-$10M $10M-$25M $25M-$50M $50M+ 50% $50B $40B Indexed to 100 $30B $20B $10B Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 2020 2021 2022 $B Median Months of Cash Runway by Revenue Band2 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Median Months of Cash Runway by Subsector Q3 2022 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 40 40 29 12 16 15 14 Early 0-$10M 16 27 24 21 19 14 Mid $10M-$25M 15 18 19 17 18 14 11 Late $25M-$50M Q3 2022 Corp $50M+ 13 23 15 Insurance Tech Notes: 1) Median value of cash and cash equivalents held by US VC-backed fintech companies, indexed to 100 in Q4 2019; using trailing two quarters of financial data. 2) Annual revenue calculated by multiplying the run rate for the time period by the number of periods in a year. Source: SVB proprietary data and SVB analysis. 12 Payments 12 15 18 8 Real Estate The State of Fintech: 2022 10 Distribution of US VC-backed Fintech Companies by QoQ Revenue Growth Positive QoQ Revenue Growth 50%+ 60% 66% of fintech 51% 12% 38% 77% 26% 24% 22% 18% 16% 17% 15% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 21% Negative Revenue Growth 59% more companies are experiencing negative growth rates in Q3 2022 compared to Q2 2022 71% 76% 73% 86% 79% 84% 74% companies are growing slower in Q3 2022 as compared to Q2. 12% 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 Q3 2022 $0-$10M Median QoQ Revenue Growth: US Formerly VC-backed Fintech IPOs Since 20182 Middle 50% of Companies Median $10M-$25M $25M-$50M $50M+ QoQ Revenue Growth: US Formerly VC-backed Fintech IPOs Since 20183 Average Revenue Growth Weighted by Company Size 16% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 2% Insurance Tech Payments 2022 2021 2020 2019 2022 2021 2020 -100% 2019 0% 2022 While fintech growth is lackluster, there is no escaping the fact that fintech is increasingly embedded in all our financial dealings. For example, some companies in the insuretech industry benefit from growing challenges in the regulatory environment, which create tailwinds for companies offering compliance and risk-management solutions. So short-run growth may be hampered, but long-term growth of the sector looks promising. 0%-50% 60% 2021 The headwinds facing these companies are primarily driven by the pace of interest-rate hikes. Fintechs face less competition from traditional banks when interest rates are near zero and equity is cheap. Most neobanks, for example, don’t offer interest on checking accounts, and many rely on third-party chartered banks to issue loans. Their value tends to be in the convenience and flexibility of their tech interface. As traditional banks offer higher interest on deposits, customer retention may become a problem for platforms like wallet apps. The fast pace of the rate hikes may be especially challenging, because customers are more aware of the rising rates than they might be if the rates were slowly increasing over many months. 61% 2020 Public companies have mirrored this lackluster growth. Among formerly VC-backed fintech companies that went public since 2018, the average revenue growth weighted by company size fell from 16% in Q4 2021 to 3% in Q3 2022. Negative Growth 2019 The tough economic environment is taking its toll. As with other sectors, fintech companies are growing more slowly in 2022. An increasing share are not growing at all. SVB proprietary data shows that 38% of fintech companies lost revenue from Q2 2022 to Q3 2022, up from 26% the prior quarter. Share of Companies by Revenue Growth and Revenue Band1 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 -3% -3% Real Estate Notes: 1) Annual revenue calculated by multiplying the run rate for the time period by the number of periods in a year. 2) Analysis uses trailing two quarters to calculate percentile. 3) Fintech companies that have been listed on a major US exchange since 2018. Source: SVB Proprietary data and SVB analysis. The State of Fintech: 2022 11 US VC-Backed Fintech EBITDA Index1 QoQ Change 150 150 Just as you can’t stop a train on a dime, it turns out you can’t cut company spending in a single quarter. Five months after prominent investors such as Lightspeed and Craft Ventures first warned founders to begin tightening their belts, companies are finally curtailing their spending. According to SVB proprietary data, there were more fintech companies with decreasing net burn in Q3 2022 than at any point since the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns in Q2 2020. The cuts give us optimism that companies are right-sizing their expenses to match decreased expectations for spending and slower revenue growth. Ad spend was the first to go, with cuts first spiking in Q3 2021. By Q2 2022, 59% of companies were slashing marketing spend. Computing spend was next with 35% of companies making cuts in Q3 2021, increasing to 50% by Q2 2022. Companies appeared to hold off on payroll cuts until Q2 2022, when they spiked to 41% of companies. Among subsectors, fintech infrastructure, real estate and alternative lending companies have the highest share of companies cutting payroll. Payments and blockchain/ crypto sectors have the fewest companies cutting payroll. In the short term, we expect payroll cuts to continue, as new tech layoffs are announced. The tech employment tracker layoffs.fyi has counted 6,400 layoffs in the US finance and crypto sectors since January, accounting for 12% of all US tech layoffs tracked on the site. In Q3 2022, 399 companies announced layoffs — the most since initial COVID-19 lockdowns in Q2 2020, when 428 companies announced layoffs. US VC-backed Fintech Change in Net Burn Companies cut spending during COVID-19. Abundant capital fuels growth at all costs. 100 100 Abundant capital fuels growth at all costs. 5050 00 Indexed to 100 -50 -50 Spending cuts begin to improve EBITDA. -100 -100 Increasing >25% Decreasing >25% Increasing <25% Decreasing <25% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% -150 -150 0% -200 -200 Q2 Q4 2017 Q2 Q4 2018 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q4 Q2 2020 Q4 2021 Share of Companies Cutting Spend QoQ by Category Payroll Computing Marketing Q2 2022 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q3 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 Share of Companies Cutting Payroll Spend QoQ by Fintech Subsector Q3 2022 2021 Average 60% Fintech Infrastructure 50% Real Estate Alternative Lending 40% Personal Finance 30% Insuretech Financial Business Process Software Blockchain and Cryptocurrency 20% 10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Notes: 1) Annualized median indexed to 100 at start of the period. Source: SVB proprietary data and SVB analysis. Q2 2022 Q3 Payments 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% The State of Fintech: 2022 12 The TheFuture State of of Fintech: Climate 2022 Tech 13 US VC-backed Fintech1 IPOs by Month and Days Since Last IPO2,3 Days Since Last US VC-backed Fintech IPO Aggregate US VC-backed Fintech IPO Valuation 531 Aggregate US VC-backed Non-fintech IPO Valuation Furthermore, not only is the backlog increasing, but the length of time fintech companies have been private is also beginning to increase. Following a record year of liquidity in 2021, which saw the average age (defined here as the time from the first round to the latest private round) fall as US fintech unicorns went public, this trend has begun to reverse as public markets are no longer open. Should this trend continue, it could put pressure on startups to seek liquidity for investors and key employees via secondary sales on platforms such as Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). Based on proprietary data from NPM, more private fintechs are selling shares on the secondary market at a discount relative to the past three years — signaling the level of uncertainty felt amongst investors in market. 321 324 Sep '22 Jun '22 Mar '22 Dec '21 Sep '21 Jun '21 77 Mar '21 Dec '20 Jun '20 Mar '20 Dec '19 Sep '19 Jun '19 Mar '19 Dec '18 Sep '18 Jun '18 Mar '18 Dec '17 US Fintech Unicorns Count, Valuation and Time from First Round3,4 Sep '20 105 103 Sep '17 Jun '17 Mar '17 Dec '16 Sep '16 Jun '16 Mar '16 Dec '15 Sep '15 112 Jun '15 202 195 181 Mar '15 However, it’s not all doom and gloom. A growing backlog of fintech companies are looking to exit. US fintech unicorns have grown to 159 and stand at a staggering $656B in aggregate valuation — a 38% and 15% increase since the end of 2021, respectively. Of the current cohort, blockchain/cryptocurrency and payment subcategories make up 28% and 52% of US fintech unicorns by count and aggregate valuation, respectively. 336 Dec '14 Following a record year of liquidity, the IPO window has undoubtedly remained shut in 2022. It has been nearly a year since the last US VC-backed fintech IPO, and while this isn’t unprecedented, it is longer than most investors expected. With the slowdown in traditional IPOs, SPACs started to take up a growing proportion of IPOs, with 167 SPACs hitting the major US public markets in 2022. Currently, there are 60 US SPACs actively seeking fintech companies as a potential target, with nearly $18B sitting in aggregate trust value. With north of 75% of them over halfway to their deadline date, this could put upward pressure on fintech activity. Nasdaq Private Market: Fintech Secondary Liquidity Activity5 Fintech Share of Deal Count 4.8 5.0 5.9 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.8 Average Time from First Round Until End of Year (Yrs.) $253B $210B $229B 7 2014 13 18 2015 2016 25 2017 6.1 Fintech Share of Transaction Volume 21% $656B $546B $547B $394B 5.5 $453B 33 2018 $569B 115 159 % Sold at Par or Premium 18% 15% 15% 46 52 2019 2020 2021 2022 16% 15% 16% 11% 2019 2020 2021 2022 Notes: 1) Fintech classification based on SVB’s proprietary taxonomy. 2) Company must be headquartered in the US and list on a major US exchange. 3) Data as of 9/30/2022. 4) Company must be headquartered in the US. Fintech classification determined using PitchBook verticals. 5) Data provided by Nasdaq Private Market and its subsidiaries as of 10/19/2022. SVB Financial Group has an investment in NPM. NPM is an independent third party and is not affiliated with SVB Financial Group. To learn more about NPM’s private market solutions, click here. Source: PitchBook, Nasdaq Private Market, SPAC Track and SVB analysis. % Sold at Discount 2019 2020 2021 2022 The State of Fintech: 2022 14 US Public Fintech Stocks Trading Below LPV2 -97% Following a historic year in 2021 for deals within the US venture-backed fintech universe, acquisition activity has softened in 2022 — though it remains on track to outpace pre-pandemic levels. Despite this, it’s fair to say most investors are surprised there hasn’t been an increased uptick in activity given the tougher fundraising conditions, slower economic growth and growing proportion of startups experiencing declines in revenue and cash runway. This may be partially attributed to the fact that valuations have yet to fall in-line with historical correction periods. However, for public fintechs, the opposite could not be more true. Public US fintech stocks have seen NTM revenue multiples fall nearly 70% since the same time last year.1 In fact, a number of notable public fintechs have fallen well below their last private valuation (LPV), with some even trading below their Series A and B rounds. The fall in valuations could serve as an attractive entry point for a prospective buyer for a take-private transaction. This is especially true when one considers how much these companies have scaled since their last private round. For example, Opendoor Technologies had annual revenue of $1.8B for fiscal year 2018 (around the time it raised its Series E2 at a $3.8B valuation). As of the last 12 months ending June 2022, Opendoor’s revenue stood at $15.4B — more than 8x the revenue figure from 2018. These changing financial dynamics could attract private equity (PE) buyers, especially as global PE buyout dry powder continues to mount and the “age” of this dry powder is increasing. With funds generally aiming for deployment of capital within the first four years, this suggests that there is still a significant amount of capital that funds will need to deploy in the near future — or face the prospect of returning funds to limited partners (LPs). This need to deploy capital may encourage activity, placing upward pressure on dealmaking. US VC-backed Fintech Acquisition Activity3 Aggregate Post-Valuation Deal Count $18.4B Extrapolation Stage Acquired At 6% Other 137 16% Late-Stage VC -88% 108 -84% 85 89 55 -82% $6.7B $5.2B $5.0B -78% 1% Series D+ 2% Series C 13% Series B 84 73 -82% 16% Early-Stage VC $12.3B 22% Series A $2.7B $2.8B 18% Seed -75% 7% Accel/Inc -74% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -72% -70% Global PE Buyout Dry Powder, by Vintage4 -60% Percentage Raised More Than Three Vintages Ago Amount Raised in Most Recent One, Two or Three Vintages Amount Raised in Older Vintages $909B $823B $796B $607B $722B 21% 23% 19% -60% -57% -43% Series A Series B Series C Series D+ Undefined Series Reverse Merger -36% 17% 17% 2019 2020 $941B 25% -21% -13% -12% 2017 2018 Notes: 1) Data based on public fintech companies within the F-Prime Capital Fintech Index. 2) LPV based on post-valuation of most recent equity round prior to going public. Data as of 10/31/2022. 3) Data as of 9/30/2022. 4) Note that in some cases, fund vintages are reclassified by the data provider (Preqin) later in the fund’s life. These charts assume the original fund vintage remains constant throughout the timeframe. Data for 2022 is as of 9/30/2022; all other years are as of year-end. Source: PitchBook, Preqin, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. 2021 2022 The State of Fintech: 2022 15 The State of Fintech: 2022 16 Bitcoin Price and US Web3 Company Formations1 Quarterly Formations Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) By any metric, Web3 was the breakout star of the innovation economy over the last two years. In addition to massive gains in funding and public attention, the term itself — a catchall for efforts to build a new digital economy on cryptographic networks — became a unifying banner for far-flung elements of crypto users and builders. As cryptocurrency prices climbed and non-fungible token (NFT)-mania took over in 2021, investment poured into Web3 projects, both on chain and off. Company formations, as measured by first VC financings, initially spiked in Q1 2021, increasing 8x over the next five quarters to peak at 237 formations in Q1 2022. Now that the markets have turned, formations are down. But the floor is now higher than it was before the spike. It’s a familiar development cycle in the crypto space. During the last crypto price boom in 2017-18, Web3 company formations jumped in proportion to the price spike of bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency. The companies seeded from that spike and the long tail after it built the infrastructure and applications that enabled the recent growth in user adoption. Now, the funds raised during the last boom are building the foundation for the future of crypto. Investors clambered for crypto deals in 2021. VC deal activity in Web3 grew 3.7x from Q1 2019 to Q1 2022, higher than any other tech sector by far. The competition for deals spurred some firms to signal their commitment to the space and capitalize on LP interest by establishing crypto-specific funds. The funds attracted $16.5B in funding, led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), which earmarked $5.5B for crypto investments. $70K 1,080 Rising cryptocurrency prices fuel Web3 company formations. $60K formations 3x $50K $40K 406 2x formations $30K $20K $10K 14 18 $0K 2017 18 34 64 72 68 2018 60 46 52 44 39 2019 38 30 92 108 114 185 237 210 134 2021 2022 2023 Trailing 90-day VC Deal Count by Sector Web3 Fintech Enterprise Still Raising Consumer Frontier Tech 400 $18B $5.5B Top Five Firms $15B 350 $5.5B $11.0B $12B $9.5B $2.0B $9B $1.0B $6B $3B 31 2020 US Fundraising in Crypto-specific VC Funds2 Closed Funds 25 $1.1B $1.1B $0B 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $800M $700M 300 250 200 3.7x increase in deal activity between Q4 ’19 and Q1 ’22 150 100 50 0 2019 Notes: 1) Formations counted as first round VC investments. Latest quarter may undercount formations because of a lag in reporting. 2) By vintage year as classified by the data source (Preqin). Source: PitchBook, Preqin and SVB analysis. 2020 2021 2022 The State of Fintech: 2022 17 User Adoption: Early Internet and Web33 Internet Users Gen Z Crypto Users Millennials Gen Xers Baby Boomers 450M 400M The 250 most popular decentralized apps have a combined monthly user base of 15.4 million accounts2, equivalent to Robinhood’s users. Among these users, 34% play games and 26% trade assets on DeFi apps. The others are divided among NFT markets (14%), gambling apps (15%) and utility apps (10%), which provide services like domain names. Users may be split, but nearly all the wealth staked in blockchain apps goes into DeFi. 100M About 2.8 million addresses are active daily on blockchains as of Q3 2022. That’s a 4x increase from Q1 2021, but it’s down from the peak of 3.3 million in Q4 2021. With crypto assets down, some crypto owners are logging off for the socalled crypto winter by taking their tokens offline in cold wallets, which are more secure but make assets unavailable for trading, buying or exchange. In fitting with the broader tech slowdown, Web3 development activity is trending down over the last six months. The number of active developers working on blockchain projects dropped 25% from Q1 2022 to Q3 2022. The optimistic view is that so-called “cryptotourists” are fleeing now that speculative trading is drying up, leaving a core group to build lasting value. That may be true, but a contributing factor could be layoffs. The tech employment tracker Layoffs.fyi has counted over 6,000 job losses in the crypto sector in 2022, all occurring in Q2 or later. Most notably, Coinbase, a centralized exchange, laid off 1,100 employees (18% of its workforce) in June. These layoffs could continue as the economic fog grows thicker. Web3 Developer Activity per Week4 295M 250M 200M 150M 28% Active Developers 1M 16% 3.0M 140k The number of active web3 developers is down 25% from the peak in Q1 2022. 120k 100k 80k 5.5k 5.8k 5.9k 6.0k 0.7M 0.4M 0.4M 0.2M 0.4M Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 BSC Q2 5.9k 5.4k 5.4k 2019 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 Q4 Q1 Q3 2022 $42.7B $3.4B DeFi Buy and trade crypto assets 2.3M Q4 Q2 Dollar Balance by Category 4.9k 0k Q3 Q1 2021 5.2M 20k Q2 Q4 Top Decentralized Apps by Monthly Users and USD Balance2 40k Q1 Q3 4.0M 60k Q4 2.8M 1.5M Games Play-to-earn gaming 6.4k 6.5k 6.5k 6.6k 3.3M 2.1M Number of Users 160k Other 0M Crypto US Owners Adults Number of Commits: Ethereum Polkadot Other Cosmos Solana Bitcoin Polygon 3.3M 2M 26% '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 Solana growth in Web3 addresses since Q1 2021. 3M 42% 18% BSC 4x 26% 50M 0M 4M 32% users held crypto assets in 2021, equivalent to the number of internet users in 1999. 300M Ethereum 12% It’s still early days in the crypto lifecycle. Compared to the early internet, crypto’s 295 million global owners puts Web3 at a 1999-level of maturity. But unlike the early internet, most Web3 users are not here to build community — at least not actively. They’re here to make money. One recent poll1 found that 66% of crypto-holders view their assets as an investment rather than a means of exchange. 350M Daily Active Web3 Addresses by Blockchain Network Q2 2022 2.2M Q3 Gambling Bet with crypto NFT Markets Buy and trade NFTs Notes: 1) A poll of crypto owners conducted by the analytics firm Morning Consult. 2) Sum of active users on DappRadar’s top 250 most popular apps. Users may overlap. Dollar balance is value of assets in a decentralized application’s smart contract. 3) Estimate of unique users. 4) Average number of developers tagged to open-source repositories. Source: Crypto.com, IMF, Morning Consult, DefiLlama, DappRadar, Artemis.xyz and SVB analysis. 1.6M Social media, 72k Utility Services for blockchain users $0.8B $0.7B $35M $97M $47.8B balance staked in the top 250 decentralized applications The State of Fintech: 2022 18 Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi Platforms2 The vast majority of on-chain wealth is staked in DeFi apps. These smart contracts attempt to mimic the fiat securities markets, allowing users to invest in crypto derivatives and exchange coins and other tokenized assets. Like the stock market, DeFi apps create the liquidity needed to fund the growth of other Web3 products and services that could create long-term value and drive adoption of crypto. But unlike the fiat world, DeFi is largely unregulated. Those vulnerabilities were highlighted during the recent downturn as consumers lost billions from investments in high-risk assets. From November 2021 to September 2022, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi platforms fell 67%. The space has been rocked by falling asset prices and the collapse of high-profile crypto projects. In May 2022, the algorithmic stablecoin Terra became unpegged from the US dollar, resulting in a cascade of other project failures. High-profile hacks, like the $625M breach of the game Axie Infinity, have also plagued crypto, inviting greater scrutiny from regulators. A quarter of all fraud losses reported to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) from Q1 2021 through Q1 2022 were tied to crypto. In light of these risks, a growing faction in crypto is going beyond the call for industry standards and inviting regulations. In June 2022, a poll of crypto owners1 found that 48% want crypto regulated at similar or stricter levels than other financial assets, up from 42% in January. One promising area of DeFi that could lead to broader mainstream adoption is collateralized stablecoins. Unlike algorithmic stablecoins, these asset-based coins are backed by fiat reserves. A Treasury Department report from 2021 said stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC) hold the potential to support “faster, more efficient, and more inclusive payments options.” Losses from Notable DeFi Hacks since 20213 Size of loss How do you primarily use crypto?1 66% 18% Investment Both $150B $146B 2021 $0M -67% 2023 -$200M 16% Money $100B 2022 -$400M -$600M $45B $50B -$800M -$1,000M -$1,200M $0B 2020 2021 2022 2023 Market Cap of Stable Coins USDT USDC USTC DAI FRAX Others $150B US-Reported Cryptocurrency Fraud Losses4 BUSD $1B $20B+ lost when Terra went to zero $250B $200B -$1,400M $20B $680M 24% of fraud losses reported to the FTC since January 2021 involved cryptocurrency. $10B $0B $329M $100B $130M $50B $0B 2021 2022 $12M $33M 2018 2019 2020 Notes: 1) Poll of crypto owners by Morning Consult. Money refers to using crypto as a means of exchange. 2) TVL is the value of tokens used for lending, staking, or liquidity pool participation in a chain's DeFi platforms. The graph shows the average monthly value in Solana, Binance Smart Chain (BSC), Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, and NEAR blockchains. 3) Data aggregated from news reports as of 10/10/2022. 4) Based on fraud reports to the FTC’s Consumer Sentinel Network. Source: Morning Consult, DeFi Llama, Federal Trade Commission and SVB analysis. 2021 Q1 2022 The State of Fintech: 2022 19 US CVC Investment in Web3 Notable Companies Bringing Compliance to Tokenized Finance TTM Deal Value with CVC Participation TTM Deal Value with Coinbase Participation Coinbase Deals as a % of CVC Deal Value Advocates of Web3 promise a future internet like the one we have today — only better. Blockchain protocols would replace the social media apps, web browsers and productivity tools that now dominate the centralized internet, giving users more control over their data and a greater stake in the online communities where they create and consume content. For now, that egalitarian internet still remains to be built. The companies selling the hammers are the tech giants Web3 is trying to disrupt. The most notable vendor in the Web3 stack, for example, is AWS, which provides computing services to 32% of Web3 companies, according to SVB data. LinkedIn and Google are the largest marketing vendors. Coinbase, a centralized exchange, is the largest corporate investor in Web3 startups. With these relationships in place, how decentralized can Web3 actually be? It’s a core tension in the Web3 narrative. But the reality is corporations are serving as a needed bridge for crypto projects building a decentralized internet. Corporate interest in crypto is driving development of infrastructure, compliance and risk management tools that are standardizing the space. Internal compliance requirements from large companies like Nike, for example, require vendors — including blockchain developers — to have insurance. Vouch 1, a fintech company, has stepped in to underwrite crypto companies. Chainalysis, a crypto analysis company, helps combat fraud. Some of the highestvalue crypto projects are those bridging tokenized products into the corporate world. Company $15B Coinbase deals accounted for 27% of all CVC-backed Web3 deal value from Q4 2020 to Q3 2021. $12B $9B 20% $0B 8% 7% $3B 0% 9% 10% 11% 22% 20% 19% 16% 16% 20% 20% 17% 10% 9% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Notable Web3 M&A by Public Companies Buyer Target VC Raised Key Product 2018 $1.2B Digital asset custody for financial institutions 2014 $536M Investigation, and risk management for crypto 2017 $238M Tax management platform for cryptocurrency 2018 $160M Insurance for Web3 companies 2021 $15M Equity management platform for tokens 27% 22% $6B Year Founded Rationale Most Popular Vendors for Web3 Companies2 Payroll Adds security for PayPal's cryptocurrency services. Provides Nike a foothold in NFTs and digital assets. Legal Marketing 1 Enhances Mastercard’s fraud monitoring service for cryptocurrency. 2 Grows Robinhood’s crypto exchange business. 3 Provides Cboe entry to digital asset spot and derivatives markets. 4 Enables IDT customers to exchange crypto currencies on their phones. 5 Notes: 1) SVB Financial Group has an investment in Vouch. Vouch is an independent third party and is not affiliated with SVB Financial Group. 2) By number of companies using the vendor. Source: PitchBook, SVB proprietary data and SVB analysis. Computing The State of Fintech: 2022 20 Dan Allred Sophie McNaught Jake Mendel Josh Pherigo Andrew Pardo, CFA Eli Oftedal Senior Market Manager, Fintech dallred@svb.com Director, Corporate Ventures smcnaught@svb.com Director, Startup Banking jmendel@svb.com Senior Researcher, Market Insights jpherigo@svb.com Senior Researcher, Market Insights apardo@svb.com Senior Researcher, Market Insights eoftedal@svb.com SVB Financial Group has an investment in Vouch. 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