The Wyckoff UpThrusts < 威科夫的假突 > An In-depth Look at a Family of High Odds Trade Setups < 高胜算交易模型深入研究系列 > Dr. Gary Dayton < 加里·代顿 博士 > www.TradingPsychologyEdge.com Copyright © 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. All Rights Reserved. < 版权© 2010 归加里·代顿和皮克心理学有限公司 版权所有 > Disclaimer < 免责声明 > IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT THE METHODS, TECHNIQUES, OR INDICATORS DISCUSSED IN THIS PRESENTATION WILL BE PROFITABLE OR THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. THERE IS NO ASSURANCE THAT THE STRATEGIES AND METHODS PRESENTED WILL BE SUCCESSFUL FOR YOU, OR THAT YOU WILL BECOME A PROFITABLE TRADER. THE PAST PERFORMANCE AND RESULTS OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR TRADING METHODOLOGY ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE WITH MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. EXAMPLES DISCUSSED AND PRESENTED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THESE ARE NOT SOLICITATIONS OF ANY ORDER TO BUY OR SELL. DR. GARY DAYTON AND TRADINGPSYCHOLOGYEDGE.COM AND ALL AFFILIATES ASSUME NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSESS SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED IN THIS PRESENTATION. THERE IS A VERY HIGH DEGREE OF RISK IN TRADING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONSULT A CERTIFIED FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR TRADING DECISION. <本演示文稿中这些方法它不应该被认为是，有利可图的技术或盈利指标不会导致损失的来进行讨论。这些无法保证这一策略和方法介绍给你带来 成功,或是能使你成为一个能盈利的交易员的。展示过去的和一些交易系统结果或交易方法不一定是将来的结果。你不应该用你承担不起的金钱交 易。实例讨论此演示文稿中仅用于教学目的。这些都不是为了任何买入或卖出的理由。加里·代顿和 TradingPsychologyEdge.com 的所有附属公司 不负责你的交易结果。此演示文稿不代表任何正在进行操作的账户或可能实现盈利或类似的亏损。在交易中有非常高的风险。在您做出任何投资 或交易决策之前。建议您咨询有认证的财务顾问。> HYPOTHETICAL, HINDSIGHT, OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, HYPOTHETICAL, HINDSIGHT, OR SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE SOME OF THE TRADES DISCUSSED IN THIS PRESENTATION HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED AND/OR SHOWN. <假设、事后看来或模拟的结果具有某些内在局限性。与实际结果记录不同，假设与事后分析或模拟的结果并不代表实际交易。而且，由于一些行 业就此演示文稿中的讨论而实际上没真正执行交易过，结果可能不足或赔本的影响，如果有的话,如某些市场如缺乏流动性等因素。任何现有的操 作帐户会或者有可能实现利润或损失不代表类似于这些讨论和或所示的。> Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 版权© 2010 归加里·代顿和皮克心理学有限公司 > Overview — — — — — — — — — — — — ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● < 概述 > Key elements of the UpThrust < 假突的关键因素 > Conceptual map of the UpThrust < 假突的概念图 > Classic UT Examples < 经典的假突例子 > Going beyond the basics < 基础晋阶 > When UpThrusts fail < 什么时候会假突失败 > Special Situations: < 特殊情况 > Hidden UpThrust < 隐藏的假突 > Power Sells < 强力卖盘 > Key entry considerations < 入场考虑的关键 > Where to exit < 何时退出 > Trade Setup specifications < 交易模型说明 > Additional examples & tips < 其他例子与技巧 > www.gpxxz.com 提供下载 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 版权© 2010 归加里代顿和皮克心理学有限公司 > Key Elements of an UpThrust < 假突的关键因素 > — ● Essential idea: Higher prices are rejected < 基础概念：价格新高受阻 > — ● Key elements: < 关键因素(原理) > — ● Resistance is established < 明确阻力位 > — ● Market reacts off of that resistance < 在阻力位的市场反应 > — ● Price returns to resistance, pushes above resistance, fails, sharply reacts and closes below resistance <价格回撤阻力位，再上推受阻，失败，且急剧反抗并收盘在阻力位下面 > — ·an inability to leave the trading range < 没能脱离交易区间 > — ● Extent of demand & supply assessed: < 对供应需求的评估范围 > — ● Width of spread or range < 扩展的宽度或范围 > — ● Close < 收盘价 > — ● Amount of volume < 量能 > — ● Supply overcoming demand < 供应战胜需求 > www.gpxxz.com 提供下载 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Conceptual Map of an UpThrust www.gpxxz.com 提供下载 < 假突的概念图 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Classic UT Example Crude Oil- UT in the March 2010 Contract 原油的假突，在 2010 年三月合约 < 经典的假突例子 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Classic UT Example Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 经典的假突例子 > Classic UT Example < 经典的假突例子 > UT on the Russell 2000 mini Futures Conract 迷你罗素 2000 期货合约的假突 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Going Beyond the Classic < 基础晋阶 > — ● Background most important consideration < 背景是最重要的考虑 > — ● A few elements that add to the UT < 假突的几个要素补充 > — ● Obvious selling at the resistance level < 阻力位有明显的卖盘 > — ● Lower low in wave structure < 创新低的波浪结构 > — ● No significant indication of strength < 没有有效的优势迹象 > — ● Heavy or light volume and no upside follow through at the UT < 在假突的位置，没有向上的优势跟随，或大量小量 > — ● Narrow range at UT < 窄幅的假突 > www.gpxxz.com 提供下载 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. A Pair of UTs – Selling at Resistance Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 两个假突 – 阻力位卖压 > Weakness at Resistance - SOT UT in SPY, 60-Minute SPY 的 60 分钟的假突 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在阻力的弱势 – 减弱行为 > Weakness – Supply in Wave Structure Weekly UT preceded by significant weakness 逐周 假突之前的弱势迹象 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 弱势 – 波浪结构的供应 > Lack of Demand < 需求不足 > ESM9 5-Minute ESM9 的 5 分钟 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. UT Follow-Through Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 凭借假突跟进 > Narrow Range < 窄幅的(假突) > FXI Daily FXI 逐日 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. UT Follow-Through Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 凭借假突跟进 > UT After FOMC < 在 FOMC 之后的假突 > ES 5-Minute Chart Day Session Only Up Thrust on an FOMC Day 当天联邦公开市场委员会会议 ES 的 5 分钟图表的假突 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Other Important Background Considerations < 其他重要背景事项 > — ● Trading Range < 交易区间 > — ● Down Trend < 下降趋势 > — ● Hidden UTs < 隐藏的假突 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Conceptual Map of a Trading Range Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 交易区间的概念图 > UT Example – Trading Range IWM Daily-UTs in a Protracted Trading Range IWM 逐日 在长期交易区间内的一些假突 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 – 交易区间 > UT Example – Trading Range QQQQ Daily Up Thrust of Trading Range QQQQ 逐日 交易区间内的假突 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 – 交易区间 > UT Example – Trading Range Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 – 交易区间 > UT Example – Trading Range Up Thrust in the March 2010 Australian Dollar- 60-Minute Chart 澳元 2010 年 3 月的假突 - 60 分钟图表 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 – 交易区间 > UT Example – Trading Range IWM Daily Chart: Up Thrust with Ample Indications of Weakness IWM 逐日图表：假突与充分的弱势迹象 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 – 交易区间 > UT Example – Trading Range IWM: Result of Daily UT IWM：逐日(图)假突后的结果 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 – 交易区间 > UpThrust in a Downtrend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突在下跌趋势中 > UT Example - Downtrend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 - 下跌趋势中 > UT Example - Downtrend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 - 下跌趋势中 > UT Example - Downtrend < 假突的例子 - 下跌趋势中 > ES 5-Minute Chart Day Session Only UTs in a Declining Market ES 5 分钟图表 仅当天会议 在熊市中的假突 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. UT Example - Downtrend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突的例子 - 下跌趋势中 > UT in a Down Trend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突在一个下跌趋势中 > UT in a Down Trend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 假突在一个下跌趋势中 > Hidden UpThrust < 隐藏的假突 > — ● Key Reversal bar to downside <在下跌势中的关键反转棒线 > — ●“Hidden” because it upthrusts resistance on a lower time frame (minor resistance) < 因为假突它“隐藏”在低级别时间框架里（较小的阻力） > — ● Good setup in a down trending market < 下跌市中的良好结构 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Conceptual Map of a Hidden UpThrust Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 一个隐藏着假突的概念图 > Hidden Up Thrust Example Weakness 弱势 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 隐藏着假突的例子 > Hidden UpThrust Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 隐藏的假突 > Hidden Up Thrust Example Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 隐藏着假突的例子 > Hidden Up Thrust Example Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 隐藏着假突的例子 > When UpThrusts fail — ● Up Trend < 上升趋势 > — ● Significant Strength in background < 背景强度明显 > — ● Absorption < 吸收 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 什么时候会假突失败 > UT in an Up Trend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在一个上升趋势中的假突 > UT in an Up Trend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在一个上升趋势中的假突 > UT in an Up Trend Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在一个上升趋势中的假突 > Absorption < 吸收 > Absorption/Holding Gains 吸收 / 拿住盈利 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Strength < 强势 > Holding Gains 拿住盈利 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Strength < 强势 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Strength & Absorption Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 强势和吸收 > Isn’t This a Solid UT? Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 这不是一个可靠的假突吗？ > No! < (答案：) 不是！ > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Entry Considerations < 进场注意事项 > — ● On the UT < 假突的所在位置 > — ● On a test of the UT (No Demand) < 在测试里的假突（无需求） > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Exit Considerations — — — — — — — — ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● < 退出的注意事项 > Trail Stop < 追踪止损 > Higher Time Frame Resistance < 高级别的时间框架受阻 > Scale Out < 横向扩展(横盘无趋势) > Indicator Value < (辅助)评估的指标(参考)值> Fixed Profit < 获利定(位)点 > Sign of Weakness < 劣(弱)势的迹象 > Time Stop < 时间停损 > Scratch: Inability to fall from the danger point < 掠痕(蜻蜓点水)：无法从阻力位危险点(关键点)下跌 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Entry on a Test/No Demand Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在测试处进场 / 无需求 > Entry on a Test/No Demand Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在测试处进场 / 无需求 > Trade Set Up Criteria < 建立交易准则 > 1.Price rallies above resistance and higher prices rejected Wyckoff UpThrust < 威科夫 - 假突 > < 价格回升至阻力之上并拒绝新高 > Setup Criteria < 结构准则 > 2.Price falls and closes underneath resistance level < 价格回落并收盘在阻力位之下 > S&P & Russell e-minis: 5 & 15-minute Markets & Time Frames <市场与时间框架> A personal determination: < 标准普尔与罗素迷你电子盘：5 与 15 分钟 > S&P 100 Stocks: Daily < 标准普尔证券 100：逐日 > < 纳斯达克证券 100：逐日 > NASDAQ 100 Stocks: Daily Entry Criteria < 进场准则 > 1.Aggressive: on the UT < 激进：在假突位置 > 2.Conservative: on a test (No Demand) < 保守：在假突后的回测（无需求） > Value Line T-5 < 评估线 5 天 > Near economic news 1.Stop placed at/above high of UT < 当前经济新闻 > < 止损放置在假突的高点或之上 > Strong up trend < 强劲的上升趋势 > Avoid UTs < 避免的假突 > Dull, flat market < 冷淡不活跃的市场 > < 最近迹象强劲 > Recent indication of strength Protection 2.Max Risk: a personal determination based on account size < 保护措施 > < 风险最大值：基于账户大小个人决定 > (e.g., on more than X% of current account size) Unable to set adequate protective stop < 例如，超过当前账户的 X% < 无法设置适当的止损保护 > Market active < 明确的下降趋势或近期弱势 > Conditions < 背景条件 > Trail stop < 明确的交易区间 > Established Down Trend or recent weakness Background A personal determination: < 活跃市场 > Established Trading Range Profit Target < 获利目标 > Obvious resistance < 阻力位有明显的卖盘 > No follow-through to upside < 上涨没有持续跟随 > Price reverses on heavy or light volume < 或大或小的量能使价格反转 > Higher time frame resistance < 更高时间框架的阻力位 > Indicator Value < 评估的指标 > A personal determination: < 弱势的波浪结构 > Scale out < 明显的阻力 > Clear selling at resistance < 追踪止损 > Fixed time or profit < 固定的时间或利润 > < 卖压（A-B-C 的上升在下降趋势中） > Trade Management < 交易管理 > > < 个人的决定： > Sign of strength < 强势迹象 > Power Sell (A-B-C up in downtrend) Weakness in wave structure < 个人的决定： > < 个人的决定： > < 范围之外 > Failure to react < 反应失败 > Time stop < 时间停损 > Sudden strength < 意外的强势 > Other < 其它 > Additional Tips — — — — — — < 其它技巧 > ● Always Remember: Background is the First Consideration < 永远牢记：背景是第一要素 > ● Look for Weakness < 寻找弱势 > ● Look for Down Trends < 寻找下降趋势 > ● Power Sells < 强力卖盘 > ● Lean against resistance < 背靠着阻力 > ● Use Higher Time Frames < 运用更高级别的时间框架 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Weakness < 弱势 > JPM Daily JPM 逐日 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. News – Stay with the Technicals! Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 新闻 – 坚持技术面为要 > Conceptual Map of a Power Sell Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 强力卖盘的概念图 > Power Sell & UT Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 强力卖盘与假突 > Power Sell & UT Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 强力卖盘与假突 > Power Sell & UT Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 强力卖盘与假突 > Power Sells & HUT/UT Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 强力卖盘与假突 > Obvious Resistance Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 明显的阻力 > UT After Failure at Resistance Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 在阻力位溃败之后的假突 > Higher Time-Frame Resistance ES 5-Minute Chart Day Session Only UT of Prior Day's High ES 5 分钟图表 仅一天的会议 假突过前一天的高点 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. < 更高周期级别 - 阻力框架> Higher Time-Frame Trend & Resistance < 更高周期级别 - 趋势框架和阻力 > ES 5 分钟图表 ES 60-Minute Chart Day Session Only ES 60 分钟图表 仅一天的会议 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Higher Time-Frame Trend & Resistance < 更高周期级别 - 趋势框架和阻力 > IWM Weekly IWM 逐周 IWM Daily IWM 逐日 Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Summary — — — — — — — ● ● ● ● ● ● ● < 总结 > Elements of an UT, HUT, Power Sell < 假突的要素，强力卖盘 > Conceptual maps < 概念图 > Background conditions < 背景条件 > When UTs fail < 什么时候会假突失败 > Entry & Exit options < 进场与离场的选择 > Setup criteria < 模型标准 > Additional tips & examples < 其他技巧与例子 > Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc. Thank You! Copyright 2010 Gary Dayton & Peak Psychology, Inc.