Final Year Research Proposal (Stock Price Prediction System) Degree: BSc. Management Information Systems Index No: 21017688 Name: K.A.S.P. Kasthuriarachchi Prospective Research Area Web/Machine Learning Tentative Research Topic Stock Price Prediction stockholders using an artificial neural network with Long Short-term memory to forecast stock prices in future. Problem Statement Stock price prediction target to decide the time ahead movements of the value of stock market. The exact prediction of share market price must be help investors for make higher income. Predicting how stock market change challenging because of that involve in stock prediction like prime rate, state of politics and economic background that make it hard to predict accurately. Therefore, stock market is a important financial schema not having particular knowledge would lead cost of finance and trouble. Stock price prediction methods can be into two mains categories. First one is Technical analysis and second one is fundamental analysis .Explain the Technical analysis is more focus on examine past stock prices on predicting. (Alzazah, 2020)The results are based mainly organized data. Contrast many machines learning and algorithms like CNN and LSTM in deep learning can be helped in sentimental analysis could be more effective. Sentimental analysis apply in computational techniques text mining and also in natural language processing and to thoughtlessly extract sentiments from texts. When surfacing on internet we can find more hypercritical news and data about stock exchange .The best examples we can get for these are Yahoo Finance BBC and Google Finance. Getting useful information manually out of this resources one of the most complex tasks to achieve . Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM) is one of the Recurrent Neural Network used for long term dependencies. It is mostly used to process time series data. The LSTM operates in three stages. The initial stage in an LSTM process is to determine which information and details should be eliminated from the cell in that particular time step. A sigmoid function can be used to do this. In the second layer, there are two major functions. One is a sigmoid function, while the other is a tanh function. The final stage is to decide what the final product will be. To begin, run the sigmoid layer and place the cell state along the tanh function, pushing the values between -1 and 1 and multiplying by the sigmoid gate output. (Alzazah, 2020) Research Question Make use of Machine learning to help stakeholders to find most profitable stock to invest. Motivation To support stakeholders to find most profitable and risk-free investments without analyzing by themselves. Aim To provide best stock price prediction system to stockholders without analyzing by themselves. Objectives • • • • To identify how much investors struggle in predicting stock market. To identify the bad effects of predicting stocks wrongly. To analyze how to overcome those effects finding best algorithm To design machine learning solution to help them to analyze stock prediction. Draft Literature Review Domain The research domain is focus about stock market prediction & analysis. Cognitive functions have a lot to do with the stock market. The average stockholder loses 50% of their net worth because they make bad investments in the stock market. Investors with little or no experience are afraid. The truth is that starting to invest in the stock market is very risky, but if you do it the right way, it can be one of the best ways to get more money. While the price of a person's home is usually a big part of their information superhighway worth, the rich and well-off typically have most of their money in stocks. a lot of people like the most common types of stock. Equities and stocks are the same thing because they have a lot of money and do a lot of business together. A startup will either sell shares (equity financing) or borrow money (debt financing) to get money to start. There aren't many tangible assets that a startup can use to get a loan, and the interest on the loan will be used up when the company doesn't make any money or make money at all. In 2021, Biswal says that the world will be a better place because of the work of people like Because several businesses that need money go with equity financing, this is the most common way for them to get the money they need The bourgeois could at first give money from their own savings as well as from friends and family to help the business of the bottom. When a company is set up, it will need more money than it can get from running a business or getting a loan in the past. In order to do this, it will sell shares to the public through a "initial public giving." In 2021, Hayes will be living. The value of a company's shares changes when it is traded on an exchange. Investors and traders use this information to figure out what the company is worth. One of the most popular ways to figure out how much a stock is worth is by looking at how much it costs to make money. Stock exchanges are places where people who already own stock can meet people who want to buy it. The companies that are on the securities market don't buy and sell their own shares on a regular basis. This is important to know. Companies may be able to buy back their own shares or issue new ones, but these aren't very common and usually happen outside of the framework of an exchange. He says that (Smith, 2022) In a securities market, the prices of stocks and bonds are set in a number of different ways. The auction method is the most common way to buy buy or sell sell things. People make bids & offers to buy or sell things at the auction. The whole market is made up of a lot of investors and traders. UN agency could have different ideas about how much a stock is worth and how much they're willing to buy or sell it for. People who invest and trade stocks make a thousand transactions every day. (Maverick 2021): Existing Systems 1. Google Finance Google Finance is an online platform that delivers daily stock values, as well as updated information on market trends, currencies, and financial markets throughout the world. Google Finance is a platform that is powered by the Google menu or stock searches. On Google, you may get stock information through Google Finance. If an analyst needs information, they must go to a financial market or a database and search via a variety of sources. After conducting research, put all pertinent stock data into a spreadsheet and construct a financial model. The GOOGLEFINANCE feature aids with data automation. (Anon., n.d.) 2. Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance is a website that provides financial market statistics and investing tool. The Markets And Portfolios sidebar facilitates the management of our portfolio listings from my portfolios and markets. Finance specific search is targeting to give finance related results. Using it to research company fund or index to look up a quote. Use currency Converter to compare and convert currencies. It also helps showing market overviews including world indices most active stocks gainers and losers. (Center, 2022) 3. Seeking Alpha Seeking Alpha is among the largest investment communities, fueled by crowdsourced wisdom and variety. Every day, millions of investors connect. In the pursuit of alpha, participants analyze the latest news, debate stock metrics, and make well-informed investing decisions. Stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and commodities are all discussed here. Data visualization and advanced charting Data-driven decision-making is aided by technical and fundamental analyses. (ALPHA, 2022) 4. MarketWatch MarketWatch is a website that provides financial information, business news, analysis, and stock market statistics to investors. Data Broadcasting Corporation created MarketWatch as DBC Online in the end of 1995. Real-time market data includes real-time pricing and historical data from across the world.As well as complex charting. Your stock prices may be tracked and related MarketWatch news can be found in your Watchlist. The virtual stock exchange allows you to put your trading techniques to the test in a real-world setting.Join the more than 300,000 individuals who use these simulators throughout the world. (Guaglione, 2020) 5. Colombo Stock Exchange – Mobile App The CSE mobile app makes it possible anyone to access and research technical details and various source of information. Anyone can download it through iOS And android platforms. It has 30-day plan self-learn lessons to learn about investing. Make intra account transfers, view monthly statements are one of the key functionalities its support. (CSE, 2022) Technological/Design Level Commonly when building a system like predicting we have to find a way to predict future events. So, the best way to find the solutions is going with machine learning algorithms. Long and short memory is an artificial neural network architecture that is commonly used in the field like deep learning. User experience and user interface another key features that have to consider. Stocks are update very quickly so data transferring must be fast and asynchronous. Designing the backend architecture is another key thing we have to consider. Reflection The goal of stock market prediction is to forecast future stock value changes and to increase earnings by accurately predicting share price fluctuations. Without having a knowledge of stock market and stock prediction many investors lost so many moneys and some give up on investing. This is so bad and affect not only for stock market but also for global economic. Even we have some websites like google Finance and yahoo finance predicting stock values future movements manually is a really difficult task and also need some knowledge and good understanding about stock exchange. The System we build are capable of predicting short term stock value and it help investors to understand the stock that best for investing help him to get motivate have a better understanding and knowledge of stock prediction. Research Philosophy The data of the firms in the stock market must be acquired for this investigation. Then We can have the basic needs to build the algorithm and system. There is main Metrics that we have to consider when before investing in the stocks. Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, Price to Book (P/B) ratio, Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio, Free Cash Flow (FCF) ratio (FCF). Those are main quantitative data. Another important concept is Current corona situation and stability of governments, laws that affect to business industry. These are main qualitative data that we have to consider. Beside building the algorithm We have to consider the how much percentage of people who are using apps like yahoo finance, google finance. As a result, this form of study needs both qualitative and quantitative data. (Anon., n.d.) Research Strategy The deductive technique is the best tactic in this study. Because this study is based on a hypothesis that already exists. There are various existing systems that can be used. (Like Google Finance / Yahoo Finance). But the issue is even they give information to Investors to help predicting some users are not have knowledge to use correctly. These large amount of data and mathematical calculations. And our target is Implementing it automatically. So best strategy suitable for is deductive. Deductive Strategy Tentative Flow How do you gather requirements for research? Can be collect quantitative data using google news and google forms. Can be collect qualitative data using apis that related to stock markets and interviews with related authorities. Using research papers about existing research Provide investors with a design and prototype solution as well as a proposed system, and solicit input through evaluation forms and meetups. Then, utilizing the comments from the target audience, finish the evaluation. Plan how you'll assess your research. Planned to conduct a study assessment by distributing an evaluation form and a proposed system to investors and soliciting comments, as well as improving areas such as the user interface and algorithms. Flow Chart Resource Requirements Hardware: N/A Software: 1. Google Cloud Platform 2. Yahoo Finance 3. Tango API 4. Domain for hosting Picture Diagram Research Contribution The literature research may help you obtain a better grasp of the existing systems, as well as their benefits and drawbacks. The goal of this research is to debug those systems and make them more efficient, as well as to assist investors in predicting stock prices without having to do mathematical calculations on their own. To do this, it is necessary to obtain further information from people who are dealing with this issue, as well as to learn about their desires. My goal is to provide a solution that uses information technology to give stock forecasting a new lease of life. Gannet Chart Conclusion Knowing how stocks fluctuate can help investors increase their earnings. Natural language processing and emotive analysis in machine learning, as well as deep learning, have acquired enormous appeal in financial sectors, particularly in market prediction models. Text mining, LSTM or CNN algorithms with deep learning, and machine learning algorithms are some of the strategies that may be used. The research's purpose is to assist novice investors in predicting future moves and gaining a better understanding of the stock market without having to do sophisticated mathematical computations. References Hayes, A., 2021. How Does the Stock Market Work. [Online] Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-marketworks.asp Biswal, A., 2021. Simplilearn. [Online] Available at: https://www.simplilearn.com/tutorials/machine-learning-tutorial/stock-priceprediction-using-machine-learning [Accessed 31 December 2021]. Alzazah, F. S., 2020. Recent Advances in Stock Market Prediction. [Online] Available at: https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/72381 [Accessed 1 June 2020]. Smith, T., 2022. Type of Stocks. [Online] Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/types-of-stocks-5215684 [Accessed 15 January 2022]. Maverick, J., 2021. What's the Difference Between the Equity Market and the Stock Market?. [Online] Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/071515/what-differencebetween-equity-market-and-stock-market.asp [Accessed 15 December 2021]. Anon., n.d. Key financial metrics to consider before you invest in stocks. [Online]. Schelstraete, V., 2021. How to use the GOOGLEFINANCE function in Google Sheets. Center, Y. H., 2022. Market data and research tools available in Yahoo Finance. [Online] Available at: https://help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN24381.html#/ ALPHA, S., 2022. ABOUT SEEKING ALPHA. [Online] Available at: https://seekingalpha.com/page/about_us Guaglione, S., 2020. MediaPost. [Online] Available at: https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/357191/marketwatch-addspaywall-wsj-magazine-reduces.html CSE, 2022. CSE website. [Online] Available at: https://www.cse.lk/mobileapp/ Rao, M., 2021. Muzli. [Online] Available at: https://medium.muz.li/vacayme-an-app-that-helps-you-decide-your-traveldestination-and-book-trips-a-ui-ux-case-study-e18cf5260f9c [Accessed 20 01 2022]. Foundation, I. D., n.d. Interrction Design Foundation. [Online] Available at: https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/topics/ui-design [Accessed 28 01 2022].
