Global Overview
The global economy is so far weathering headwinds better than expected. Incoming activity
data for the fourth quarter of 2022 beat expectations, even though they do point to continued
slowing momentum. Global real GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.3 percent in 2023, down
from 3.3 percent in 2022. Most of the weakness will be concentrated in Europe, Latin
America and the US, though it is weighing on the industrial sector globally. Asian economies
are expected to drive most of global growth in 2023, as they benefit from ongoing reopening
dynamics and less intense inflationary pressures compared to other regions.
After rising sharply over 2021 and much of 2022, inflation in most of the world is slowing,
mostly driven by falling energy and food prices and fading supply chain pressures. This is
paving the way for a reduction in the pace and intensity of interest rate hikes by the world’s
major central banks, suggested at their recent meetings. However, the inflation outlook
remains uncertain. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, is proving more resilient.
Therefore, monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive throughout most of 2023. This will
act as a break on economic activity and will likely lead to increases in unemployment rates in
various economies, particularly in Europe and the US.
Global real GDP growth should pick up steam in 2024 to 2.7 percent and be more evenly
distributed among regions. Tailwinds to growth in 2024 will largely come from fading shocks
related to the pandemic, elevated inflation, and monetary tightening. However, growth rates
in 2024 and beyond are likely to be below the prepandemic trend, given ongoing supply-side
weakness (e.g., ageing demographics worldwide and slow productivity growth).
The 10-year economic outlook signals a prolonged period of disruptions and uncertainties for
businesses, but there are also opportunities. Global growth will return to its slowing trajectory
once the 2022-2023 regional recessions end, with mature markets making smaller
contributions to global GDP over the next decade. Nonetheless, there are still opportunities
for firms to invest in both mature markets—given their wealth and need for innovation to
compensate for shrinking labor forces—and emerging markets—given their need for both
physical and digital infrastructure to support their sizable and young labor forces. Keys to
ensuring growth over the longer term include developing new lines of business; strengthening
corporate culture; embracing digital transformation and automation; recruiting for talent with
new skills not currently represented in the company; and maximizing the hybrid work model
where it makes sense.
Note: Since October 2022 The Conference Board uses official Chinese GDP data in our
global aggregation which led to an upward revision of the global aggregate growth rate. The
alternative figures for China that we used before were lower, and hence our global aggregate
was also lower. The change from using official GDP data as our main series for China is
made for several reasons including: lack of up-to-date data that constrain the tracking of our
alternative GDP measure on a timelier basis; lack of detailed data to perform the necessary
calculations as described in the original methodology; and biases in official GDP data
appearing smaller than in earlier years. We continue to track alternative GDP data for
China but will do so on a less frequent basis.
For questions or comments, please email ted@conference-board.org.
More Insights For What's Ahead In The Global Economy







Data: Forecasts and long-term projections available
through Data Central.
Global Recession Hub: Navigating the Economic
Storm (continuously updated).
Global: Quarterly publication on the global
economy: StraightTalk®; Annual long-term outlook (October
2022).
United States: Monthly forecast; Monthly Economy
Watch webcasts and report; Annual long-term
outlook (November 2022).
Europe: Monthly Economy Watch report; Annual long-term
outlook (October 2022).
China: Monthly Economy Watch report; Annual long-term
outlook (November 2022).
Asia: Annual long-term outlook (November 2022).

Emerging Markets: Monthly Economy Watch report.
Charts and Tables