2021 Fall Space Race Main Research Packet

1 ＮＨ Contents 1. Table of Contents............................................................................................................................................. 1 Ｃ 2. Background....................................................................................................................................................... 2 ＬＣ 2.1 Introduction by the Directors...................................................................................................................2 ＳＤＬ 2.2.1 Space Races, A History...............................................................................................................................5 ＳＤ “The Space Race” History.com editors, February 21, 2020.......................................................................5 2.2.2 US-Chinese Cooperation....................................................................................................................... 8 ＮＨＮＨ 2.3 America, China and the race to the moon............................................................................................14 3. Pro Arguments............................................................................................................................................... 22 3.1 A space race would drive lunar development, expanding access to vital resources...................... 22 ＬＣ 3.2.1 A space race causes nations to commit more resources to science than they otherwise would ........................................................................................................................................................................... 27 3.2.2 Resource allocation, continued.......................................................................................................... 32 3.3.2 Technology spillover, continued........................................................................................................ 54 ＮＨＮＨ 4. Con Arguments...............................................................................................................................................57 4.1 A space race leads to more dangerous military technology and risks military conflict................ 57 4.2 Space exploration should be the purview of international cooperation, not individual nationstates. Cooperation provides substantially more benefits without risking so many harms............... 61 ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ 4.3 A space race takes money that should be spent solving existential crisis’ on Earth..................... 72 nhsdlc.cn Ｓ 3.3.1 Space tech improves everyday life......................................................................................................47 ＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 1. Table of Contents ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet 2 2. Background 2.1 Introduction by the Directors ＮＨＮＨ It is highly recommended that debaters begin by reading the Topic Introduction post on the NHSDLC website here. Once debaters are more familiar with the general idea of the topic, then they can proceed with reading the rest of the research packet. ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ This research packet is a tool for preparing students to debate on the topic, “Resolved: A space race between China and the United States would cause more benefits than harm.” This will be the topic for the NHSDLC Fall 2021 season. The first section contains background information about nuclear weapons and the rest of the packet is divided into articles that show support for either the Pro or Con side. ＮＨ It is up to each debater to read the articles and incorporate their arguments and evidence into their cases accordingly, considering bias, context, and how these articles present their evidence. Additionally, an article under “Pro” may still have sections or statements that support or sound more like the Con side. These categories are not meant to be “only Pro” evidence; they are only designed to help debaters find some basic starting evidence and ideas for each side of the topic. Some of the resources here have been shorted with an ellipsis […]. However, most of the articles have been posted in their full original length since reading the whole article allows greater understanding of the context and primary idea. ＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ It is highly recommended to find articles, evidence, and ideas from their own research, as the most successful debaters tend to find unique evidence and arguments that are truly their own. The NHSDLC Academic Team has also included a short note prior to most of the articles, giving some background on the source and outlining the key points and terms. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ There is an additional advanced supplement packet for more advanced students. The supplement is not required to understand the topic. It contains additional information and some more advanced articles that are more difficult to read and comprehend. It is highly recommended that debaters read through this research packet first before reading the advanced supplement as the advanced supplement does not contain the introductory material in this research packet. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ At its core, this topic asks debaters to do a simple comparison. Would a space race between China and the United States result in more benefits or harms? The Pro side will advocate that the benefits outweigh the harms. These arguments center around the scientific devel0pment that comes from investing in space exploration. The Pro will argue that competition between the two nations will benefit society. The Con will typically argue that this scientific benefit comes at an opportunity cost to nhsdlc.cn ＳＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＣ [A] “bifurcation” of space exploration is under way. In one emerging camp are states led by China and Russia, many of them authoritarian; in the other are democracies and “like-minded” countries aligned with the US. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ Russia has traditionally worked closely with the Americans, even when terrestrial relations were bad. Now it is moving closer to Beijing. In March, China and Russia announced plans to co-build an international lunar research station. The agreement comes at a time when Vladimir Putin’s government has been increasingly isolated and subject to western sanctions. In June, Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping renewed a friendship treaty. Moscow is cosying up to Beijing out of necessity, at a time of rising US-China bipolarity. ＮＨＮＨ […] ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ “We see a tightening of the Russia-China relationship,” Krolikowski says. “In the 1950s the Soviet Union provided a wide range of technical assistance to Beijing. Since the 1990s, however, the Russian space establishment has experienced long stretches of underfunding and stagnation. China now presents it with new opportunities.” […] (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/thespace-race-is-back-on-but-who-will-win) ＮＨＮＨ This research packet will focus on the terminology and history about a space race. Understanding the history of space races will separate the good debaters from the best debaters. This topic asks debaters to predict how a space race would play out into the future and extrapolating on the past provides the some of the best evidence. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Before we cover the history and terminology of the topic, we want to clear up a framing question about the topic. Like last season’s IMF topic, this topic asks debaters to compare the harms to the benefits. Debaters should make comparisons and rely on impact calculus to win. A team will unlikely win that a space race would have no nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣ These rival geopolitical factions are fighting over a familiar mountainous surface: the moon. In 2019 a Chinese rover landed on its far side – a first. China is now planning a mission to the moon’s south pole, to establish a robotic research station and an eventual lunar base, which would be intermittently crewed. ＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤ 3 investments on Earth. Additionally, Con teams may argue that the sensationalization and politicization of space exploration detracts from scientific development. The implications of space exploration extend beyond science. Space has major geopolitical implications. The Guardian’s Luke Harding while interviewing professor Alanna Krolikowski wrote: ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨ With this framing cleared up, let’s jump into understanding the topic! ＳＤＳＤ 4 harms or no benefits, so the most persuasive teams will acknowledge some benefit/harm, but be able to quantify and qualify why their side outweighs the other. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Note from the NHSDLC: This History.com overview discusses the space race between the US and the former Soviet Union. While our topic asks about a US-China space race, the two share many similarities. Both drive scientific development from two nations vying for hegemony. While you don’t need to be overly familiar with the US-USSR space race, it would be beneficial to use this section as a reference to understand the US-China space race and parallels that other articles reference. Additionally, it may behoove debaters to make an argument by analogy, comparing specific events between the two space races. ＮＨＮＨ “The Space Race” History.com editors, February 21, 2020 ＮＨ After World War II drew to a close in the mid-20th century, a new conflict began. Known as the Cold War, this battle pitted the world’s two great powers–the democratic, capitalist United States and the communist Soviet Union–against each other. Beginning in the late 1950s, space would become another dramatic arena for this competition, as each side sought to prove the superiority of its technology, its military firepower and–by extension–its political-economic system. ＳＤ Causes of the Space Race ＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ By the mid-1950s, the U.S.-Soviet Cold War had worked its way into the fabric of everyday life in both countries, fueled by the arms race and the growing threat of nuclear weapons, wide-ranging espionage and counter-espionage between the two countries, war in Korea and a clash of words and ideas carried out in the media. These tensions would continue throughout the space race, exacerbated by such events as the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and the outbreak of war in Southeast Asia. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Did you know? After Apollo 11 landed on the moon's surface in July 1969, six more Apollo missions followed by the end of 1972. Arguably the most famous was Apollo 13, whose crew managed to survive an explosion of the oxygen tank in their spacecraft's service module on the way to the moon. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Space exploration served as another dramatic arena for Cold War competition. On October 4, 1957, a Soviet R-7 intercontinental ballistic missile launched Sputnik (Russian for “traveler”), the world’s first artificial satellite and the first man-made object to be placed into the Earth’s orbit. Sputnik’s launch came as a surprise, and not a pleasant one, to most Americans. In the United States, space was seen as the next frontier, a logical extension of the grand American tradition of exploration, and it was crucial not to lose too much ground to the Soviets. In addition, this demonstration of the nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤ 5 2.2.1 Space Races, A History ＮＨ NASA Is Created ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ In 1958, the U.S. launched its own satellite, Explorer I, designed by the U.S. Army under the direction of rocket scientist Wernher von Braun. That same year, President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a public order creating the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a federal agency dedicated to space exploration. ＮＨ Eisenhower also created two national security-oriented space programs that would operate simultaneously with NASA’s program. The first, spearheaded by the U.S. Air Force, dedicated itself to exploiting the military potential of space. The second, led by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Air Force and a new organization called the National Reconnaissance Office (the existence of which was kept classified until the early 1990s) was code-named Corona; it would use orbiting satellites to gather intelligence on the Soviet Union and its allies. ＬＣＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ In 1959, the Soviet space program took another step forward with the launch of Luna 2, the first space probe to hit the moon. In April 1961, the Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first person to orbit Earth, traveling in the capsule-like spacecraft Vostok 1. For the U.S. effort to send a man into space, dubbed Project Mercury, NASA engineers designed a smaller, cone-shaped capsule far lighter than Vostok; they tested the craft with chimpanzees, and held a final test flight in March 1961 before the Soviets were able to pull ahead with Gagarin’s launch. On May 5, astronaut Alan Shepard became the first American in space (though not in orbit). ＮＨＮＨ Later that May, President John F. Kennedy made the bold, public claim that the U.S. would land a man on the moon before the end of the decade. In February 1962, John Glenn became the first American to orbit Earth, and by the end of that year, the foundations of NASA’s lunar landing program–dubbed Project Apollo–were in place. Achievements of Apollo ＮＨＳＤＬＣ From 1961 to 1964, NASA’s budget was increased almost 500 percent, and the lunar landing program eventually involved some 34,000 NASA employees and 375,000 employees of industrial and university contractors. Apollo suffered a setback in January 1967, when three astronauts were killed after their spacecraft caught fire during a nhsdlc.cn Ｓ Space Race Heats Up: Men (And Chimps) Orbit Earth ＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ overwhelming power of the R-7 missile–seemingly capable of delivering a nuclear warhead into U.S. air space–made gathering intelligence about Soviet military activities particularly urgent. 6 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ December 1968 saw the launch of Apollo 8, the first manned space mission to orbit the moon, from NASA’s massive launch facility on Merritt Island, near Cape Canaveral, Florida. On July 16, 1969, U.S. astronauts Neil Armstrong, Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin and Michael Collins set off on the Apollo 11 space mission, the first lunar landing attempt. After landing successfully on July 20, Armstrong became the first man to walk on the moon’s surface; he famously called the moment “one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” ＮＨＮＨ Who Won the Space Race? ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ With the conclusion of the space race, U.S. government interest in lunar missions waned after the early 1970s. In 1975, the joint Apollo-Soyuz mission sent three U.S. astronauts into space aboard an Apollo spacecraft that docked in orbit with a Soviet-made Soyuz vehicle. When the commanders of the two crafts officially greeted each other, their “handshake in space” served to symbolize the gradual improvement of U.S.-Soviet relations in the late Cold War-era. nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ By landing on the moon, the United States effectively “won” the space race that had begun with Sputnik’s launch in 1957. For their part, the Soviets made four failed attempts to launch a lunar landing craft between 1969 and 1972, including a spectacular launch-pad explosion in July 1969. From beginning to end, the American public’s attention was captivated by the space race, and the various developments by the Soviet and U.S. space programs were heavily covered in the national media. This frenzy of interest was further encouraged by the new medium of television. Astronauts came to be seen as the ultimate American heroes, and earth-bound men and women seemed to enjoy living vicariously through them. Soviets, in turn, were pictured as the ultimate villains, with their massive, relentless efforts to surpass America and prove the power of the communist system. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ launch simulation. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union’s lunar landing program proceeded tentatively, partly due to internal debate over its necessity and to the untimely death (in January 1966) of Sergey Korolyov, chief engineer of the Soviet space program. 7 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet 2.2.2 US-Chinese Cooperation ＮＨＮＨ “Can the U.S. and China Cooperate in Space?” Leonard David, Scientific American, August 2, 2021 (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-u-s-and-chinacooperate-in-space/) ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Note from the NHSDLC: This overview from Scientific American provides a toplevel analysis of the key issues about the US-China space race, including key points of competition, its benefits, as well as potential alternatives to a space race. This will provide debaters with sample analysis from several experts on space exploration. ＮＨＮＨ Will collaboration or competition define international space science and exploration in the 21st century? The answer could come down to how two spaceflight superpowers, the U.S. and China, choose to engage with each other in the next few years. ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ In the meantime, nearer to Earth, China is rapidly constructing its “Heavenly Palace,” the multimodular Tiangong space station. A core segment of the station is already aloft and operational, housing a three-person crew. By late next year, a rapid-fire launch schedule of more astronauts, supply ships and add-on modules should bring assembly of China’s orbital outpost to its conclusion. The China Manned Space Agency has reportedly given provisional approval to stuff the station with more than 1,000 scientific experiments. And it is inviting foreign participation via the United Nations. ＮＨＮＨ What impact China’s space schedule, along with the country’s joint ventures with Russia, may have on U.S. space exploration objectives remains to be seen. But some experts suggest it might be time for the U.S. to search for common ground in shaping a more inclusive multination space agenda. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ For now, however, restrictive legislation makes this far more easily said than done. In 2011 Congress passed a law that included an add-on known as the Wolf Amendment. Named after its mastermind, then representative Frank Wolf of Virginia, the Wolf Amendment prohibits NASA from using federal funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government. Ever since, a potential repeal of the nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ The U.S. remains the global leader in space by most metrics, but China is methodically advancing its own ambitious space agenda at a quickening pace, blueprinting and carrying out a succession of robotic interplanetary forays to destinations such as the asteroid belt and Jupiter, as well as a sample-return mission to Mars. Layered into the mix is China’s five-year plan for moon exploration, which, in a recently announced partnership with Russia, would lead to both countries jointly building an International Lunar Research Station that would be tended by human crews. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤ 8 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ “I think we’re going to see a mixture of cooperation and competition, probably between two blocs: one led by the U.S. and one led by China. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing,” says John Logsdon, a professor emeritus at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and founder and former long-time director of the university’s Space Policy Institute. “After all, it was [U.S. versus Soviet] competition that got us to the moon. There is competition between the U.S. and China for global leadership.” ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Is it time to work more closely with China, perhaps starting with a repeal of the Wolf Amendment? Logsdon thinks so, though he underscores that many of his peers disagree. “It’s a legitimate issue for policy debate,” he says, “and repeating the Wolf Amendment every year in legislation is a convenient way of avoiding that debate.” For now, Logsdon adds, the U.S. should use diplomatic and scientific channels to test the waters for future work with China, establishing whether any partnership could be mutual beneficial, let alone possible. “China may—or we may—decide [to say] no,” he says. “But right now we really can’t engage to make that decision.” ＮＨＮＨ Fundamentally, however, Logsdon rejects the assertion that China and the U.S. are destined to engage in another space-based contest akin to the U.S.-Soviet rivalry during the cold war. “Sure there is competition, but it’s not a race,” he says. CASE-BY-CASE IN SPACE ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Bill Nelson, a former senator of Florida and now NASA’s 14th administrator, would be the first to disagree. The two nations are very much in a space race already, he says, and the U.S. must be wary. nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ As for China and Russia cozying up to each other to install an International Lunar Research Station, Logsdon suggests the U.S.’s reaction has thus far been inconsistent. “Half the time, we complain about [China’s and Russia’s] lack of transparency. But then when they make explicit their plans, we’re not happy either,” he says. In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse, “Russia turned to the U.S. in 1993 [to help build the International Space Station] to save their space program. And now I think they are turning to China to do much the same.” ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ SHIFTING ALLIANCES ＮＨ amendment has been a political football, tossed between hawkish factions eager to paint China as an emerging adversary in space and less combative advocates wishing to leverage the country’s meteoric rise in that area to benefit the U.S. 9 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＣ “They put it out there..., and then they usually follow through,” Nelson says. “The Chinese civilian space program is, in reality, their military space program. That’s why I think we are going into a space race with China.” ＮＨＮＨＳＤ Even before arriving at NASA, Nelson was familiar with China’s space ambitions. For six years, he chaired the space subcommittee in the U.S. House of Representatives, and he later served as ranking member of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation—both positions in which a thorough situational awareness of geopolitical space activities was essential. ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ That is the relationship Nelson wishes the U.S. had with China, too. But unfortunately, he says, for now, the latter nation’s penchant for secrecy stands in the way of any similar partnership. More openness is required. “Leadership in space is leadership in a transparent way for all nations to join you,” he says. If, however, the choice is made to pursue any work with China on its space program, “it calls for a certification from me that it does not affect our national security. So we’ll take it on a case-by-case basis.” ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ One case could be working with China to facilitate sharing some of the nation’s prized specimens from its recent and highly successful Chang’e-5 lunar-sample-return mission. Per the Wolf Amendment, Nelson says, as long as U.S. researchers do not utilize any NASA funds and keep NASA-funded university projects separate from any Chineserelated projects, there is no prohibition on American researchers asking for, and receiving, those lunar collectibles. nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ On the prospect of working with China, Nelson muses about how things evolved with the former Soviet Union, once “our mortal enemy.” In part because of each nation’s huge nuclear arsenal and the associated threat of mutually assured destruction, the U.S. and the Soviet Union eventually reached a stalemate that extended into space, where cooperation rather than competition reigned. The jointly built ISS—circling Earth every 90 minutes and continuously crewed for more than two decades by astronauts and cosmonauts alike—is the shining example of what collaboration can achieve. “Things don’t go swimmingly on terra firma..., but in space they do,” he says. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 10 “I think we have a very aggressive China and, I add, [a] thus far successful” China, he says. “They said they’d put up a space station, and they did. [They said they would] bring back lunar samples, and they’ve done so. They are the second nation to robotically land and rove on Mars. [And] they plan to put boots on the moon.” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ HARMONY IN THE HEAVENS? ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ There are, of course, ways that the newly announced space partnership between China and Russia can strengthen the U.S. even without meaningful cooperation. It could, for instance, compel the White House and Congress to open floodgates of money to pour into the U.S.’s civil and military space programs, says Marcia Smith, a veteran analyst who runs the Web site SpacePolicyOnline.com. But whether this would yield sufficient funding to meet the goals of NASA’s Artemis program—namely, landing astronauts back on the moon as early as 2024—is another question. The China-Russia lunar research base, Smith says, does not envision human lunar landings until 2036 or later, “so it’s not much of a race.” ＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ “If NASA can convince Congress that [any] proposed cooperation does not create the possibility for technology transfer or involve officials determined by the U.S. to have direct involvement in violating human rights, it can get approval,” Smith says. “And it only restricts bilateral, not multilateral, cooperation.” Even so, she adds, at present, there is very little NASA-China space cooperation to speak of and no indication that this will change anytime soon. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Meanwhile the U.S. still shares responsibility with Russia in maintaining and building upon the decades-long multinational human space exploration program that led to the creation of the ISS. NASA, Smith says, hopes Russia will not only remain a partner on the ISS but will also help build a planned lunar Gateway space station for the agency’s Artemis program. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ “Perhaps Russia will choose to work with China, as well as with the U.S.-led multinational effort. But getting all three working in harmony to explore the heavens? Not without dramatic geopolitical changes that are nowhere to be seen in my crystal ball,” Smith concludes. DEEP-SPACE POWER DYNAMICS nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣ Alternatively, because the Wolf Amendment does allow NASA to work with China under certain, very restrictive circumstances, perhaps more robust collaboration is still in the cards. ＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 11 Similarly, China’s Martian-sample-return initiative is another future prospect. “Their Mars samples would be coming back about the same time that ours would, so that’d be a great opportunity,” Nelson suggests. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＣ “Russia seems to be the weaker of the partners in any Russia-China space relationship,” Cheng adds. “And Russia doesn’t handle being the weaker partner well, whether it is with the West after the collapse of the former Soviet Union or, in all likelihood, with China.” ＮＨＮＨＳＤ The U.S., he notes, does well when cooperating with other states that demonstrate transparency, as well as respect for intellectual property and the rule of law with regard to human rights and national sovereignty—all areas where tensions with China have flared. This history of conflict and its probably continuation in the future makes Cheng skeptical of any near-term hopes for cooperation between the two nations in space. ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣ Brown University planetary scientist Jim Head, a leading expert on space exploration, works multilaterally with both Russian and Chinese space scientists, as well as his European colleagues, on analyzing landing sites for future interplanetary missions. Whether in conflict or collaboration, he says, the one constant to China’s space aspirations is that they will not stop. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＬＣ “China is on the ‘silk road’ to space,” Head quips. “They are doing it; there’s no question about that. Their space program is important to them, and it establishes national pride and prestige. It is not just good for science but for everything [the nation does]. If we sit and bury our heads in the sand and don’t do anything ourselves, they are still going. They are not waiting for us.” ＮＨＳＤＳＤ China is already nearing a leadership position in lunar science, Head says, because it has demonstrated that it can send sample-return spacecraft to both the moon’s near and far sides, and it “can basically pump them out like sausages.” ＳＤＬＣＮＨ Rather than await a heavy lift from the White House to change the Wolf Amendment, Head suggests it could be more fruitful for scientists to petition Congress for an exception so that they can work bilaterally with their Chinese peers on space projects. A way forward could be through the Inter-Agency Consultative Group for Space Science, an informal collective of researchers from major space agencies that executes interagency coordination on select missions. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 12 Just how much space cooperation two authoritarian systems can actually achieve is unclear, says Dean Cheng, a senior research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center in Washington, D.C. “Announcements are easy. Actual cooperation is hard,” he says. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＣＮＨＬＣ “The solar system is such a big place. If we’re all duplicating everything individually, that is just stupid. So collaboration, cooperation, coordination—I think that’s absolutely the way to go,” Head concludes. ＳＤＳＤＮＨ 13 Having China become a signatory of the Artemis Accords might be a productive pathway, too, Head adds. Led by the U.S. Department of State and NASA, these accords describe a shared vision for principles, grounded in the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, to create a safe and transparent environment that facilitates exploration, science and commercial activities on the moon. As of this writing, a dozen countries have embraced the Artemis Accords: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, New Zealand, South Korea, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the U.K. and the U.S. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet “The Eagle and the Rabbit”, The Economist International Edition, July 17, 2021 ＬＣＣＮＨ Note from the NHSDLC: Space may seem like an endless expanse, however nations are focused on a few key celestial bodies. Lunar dominance provides a powerful public relations platform and potentially key resources and a platform for future missions. This Economist piece explores each nation’s lunar exploration capabilities and their political motivations. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ If Mr Bezos has lost his precedence, he has kept his date. And that matters. July 20th is the anniversary of the first landing of a crewed spacecraft on the Moon: that of the Eagle, Apollo 11’s lunar module, in 1969. As such it was, for a long time, a date for retrospection. But now it is also a date for looking forward. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ There is every reason to think that, by the time Apollo 11’s 60th anniversary rolls around at the end of this decade, American astronauts will once again be leaving footprints on the barren lunar plains. And while Sir Richard has no realistic human-spaceflight ambitions beyond tourist flights to the top of the atmosphere, Mr Bezos wants Blue Origin to play a big role in that next great adventure. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ A place for the private initiative of Mr Bezos and those like him is one of the ways in which the plans and context for America’s return to the Moon differ from those that saw it first go there—and then stop going there—half a century ago. There are many others. One of the goals of the Artemis programme, as nasa’s back-to-the-Moon programme is known, is to highlight the ways in which America has changed in the intervening decades. Another is to be comparatively cheap. Whereas Apollo had to be a uniquely nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬ In early June Mr Bezos had garnered headlines and pageviews by announcing that when his rocket company, Blue Origin, launched a space capsule with humans on board for the first time on July 20th he would be among those passengers. Virgin Galactic, a company founded by Sir Richard, had already flown its rocket-plane Unity to the edge of space. Plans were quickly hatched to bring its next test flight forward and to put Sir Richard himself on the crew manifest (he had been planning to take a later flight). On July 11th Unity did its thing, and Sir Richard, returned to Earth, proclaimed a new space age open. Blue Origin tweeted, snarkily if accurately, that its capsule goes higher and has bigger windows. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 14 2.3 America, China and the race to the moon ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ One thing remains the same. Artemis, like Apollo, is shaped by the geopolitics of greatpower rivalry—then between America and the Soviet Union, now between America and China. Even here, though, there are crucial differences. In the 1960s America was in a race, the outcome of which could not be known. Today it is the reigning champion, seeking merely to maintain its pre-eminence. But the question in the minds of the spectators is strikingly similar. Does the American system work better than the alternative when faced with the challenges of the future? ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣ In the 1960s America started off on the back foot. The Soviet Union had launched the first satellite into space in 1957 and the first human in 1961. If the space race was to get into orbit, and thereby demonstrate both your remarkable technological prowess and your ability to drop a nuclear weapon onto any point on the Earth, the Soviet Union had already won. Part of the genius of Apollo was to redefine the race as being one to the Moon. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ The fact that getting to the Moon requires a very large launcher meant that the more limited technology which had allowed the Soviet Union to take the lead in Earth orbit no longer counted for much. Both sides needed a fundamentally new capability. It was America which, through a remarkable and extremely costly effort, successfully built that capability in the form of the Saturn V. ＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ When, at the beginning of that great drama, President John F. Kennedy told Congress that America’s eagerness to go into space was “not governed by the efforts of others” he was being less than candid; the Soviet Union’s efforts were fundamental to the programme’s rationale. One of the differences between that era of lunar rivalry and this one, though, is that China seems to be living up to Kennedy’s ideal. It is not trying to leapfrog ahead of America as America tried to overtake the Soviet Union. It is trying to build a similar set of capabilities—and thus catch up to some extent—and to meet its own national needs, whether defined in military and economic terms or, more nebulously, in terms of prestige. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 15 American achievement, Artemis will encourage the participation of allies. And rather than providing just a few brief visits, Artemis is meant to lead to the creation of permanent outposts. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＬＣＣＮＨ China is capable of routinely launching satellites of all sizes which it uses for its own communications, reconnaissance and intelligence services and also makes available to third countries. Last year it completed a satellite navigation system, Beidou, that is a global rival to the gps system which America originally fielded in the 1980s, and to the more recent Glonass and Galileo systems developed by Russia and Europe, respectively. ＮＨＳＤ The rover that China landed on Mars in May was much smaller and less capable than the most recent rovers America has sent there. But no other country has yet managed such a feat at all. Nor has anyone else landed a rover—called Yutu-2, after the rabbit who lives on the Moon in Chinese folklore—on the far side of the Moon. The modular space station that China is currently assembling in low Earth orbit is much more modest than the International Space Station (iss) on which America, Canada, Europe, Japan and Russia have collaborated. But it is a more ambitious undertaking than any of those powers other than America or Russia could field alone. Xi Jinping, China’s president, certainly seemed proud when he had a videocall with the “taikonauts” on board. ＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＮＨＳ My spaceship knows which way to go ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨ And China has started developing big boosters, rockets similar in size to the Saturn V. Officials in the Chinese space programme have said that when there is a working version, probably in the early 2030s, it will be used to put people on the Moon; recently the Chinese and Russian space agencies announced that they would work together towards such a goal. Again, this is a matter of catching up. The difference is that this time China is recreating a capability which America has let lapse. ＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ Recreating a capability is not the same as running in a race, much less winning one. But for China it is just one stage in a longer drawn-out strategy which would see it eclipse America as the leading power in space sometime in the 2040s through a mixture of its own perseverance and America’s decline. China would be headed for the Moon even if America was not; it will go there even if, as seems likely, America gets back there well beforehand. China’s leaders seem to see a presence on the Moon as having a meaning which goes well beyond beating an adversary to a largely arbitrary finish line. There are things that great nations do which small nations cannot; there are types of grandeur reserved for nations which embody ancient civilisations of global import. China’s leaders ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 16 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ A truly confident America might look at these ambitions in the context of its own achievements half a century ago, say “been there, done that” and move on. Today’s America lacks such composure. For China to land on the Moon in the absence of an active American presence there would be a public-opinion disaster. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ Beating China is a simple and popular proposition. The Artemis programme as drawn up under Mr Trump has been embraced by Mr Biden’s administration and seems to enjoy solid bipartisan backing in Congress. It is an approach to making America great again which is hard to oppose in principle, even if it is not everyone’s priority. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ The new administration has yet to face up publicly to the fact that it will not meet the original goal of boots on the Moon by the end of 2024 (which would have been the end of Mr Trump’s second term). But it seems highly likely that it will manage it sometime before the end of Mr Biden’s second term, should he serve one. As long as the programme remains on course to succeed before China gets off the pad, a little delay is unlikely to badly affect support. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Artemis also serves other political goals. The Americans put on the Moon by Apollo were all white men. This did not go unnoticed at the time; one of the most enduring works by Gil Scott-Heron, a black poet and musician, begins “A rat done bit my sister Nell (with Whitey on the Moon)”. Much has recently been done to publicise the contribution that women and people of colour made to the programme behind the scenes—this year nasa’s Washington, dc headquarters building was renamed in honour of Mary W. Jackson, the agency’s first black female engineer. Their role in today’s space programme nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨ When making the case for the Artemis programme in May, Bill Nelson, the nasa administrator, brandished a picture of China’s Mars rover at the House appropriations committee. “They’re going to be landing humans on the Moon. That should tell us something about our need to get off our duff and get our Human Landing System programme going vigorously.” ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 17 think their country must be seen to share in all such perquisites. A presence beyond the Earth is one of them. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＬＣＣ Giant steps are what you take ＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Having to expend similar amounts to recreate an old capability would not send a similar message. Fortunately, it is not necessary. A new nasa rocket with Saturn V-like capabilities, the Space Launch System (sls), is already close to completing its development, as is a new long-duration crew capsule, Orion, that can ride on top of it. nasa also had pre-existing plans for a small space station, now known as Lunar Gateway, which would orbit in the Moon’s vicinity. At its simplest, all Artemis requires beyond what is already in development is a system for getting people in an Orion orbiting in the vicinity of the Moon down to the surface and back up again (see diagram). ＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ For nasa to develop such a landing system itself would still be a pricey undertaking. But the space agency’s greatest achievement over the past decade has been demonstrating that it does not have to develop its spacecraft itself. After the last space shuttles were retired, nasa asked private companies to submit proposals for new spacecraft to get first cargo and then crews up to the iss. Various companies won contracts under these schemes, most notably SpaceX, the rocket company founded by Elon Musk. ＮＨＳＤ Grants, milestone payments made when particular goals were achieved and the promise of long-term contracts once the vehicles were up to scratch allowed SpaceX to develop the Crew Dragon spacecraft, now used to ferry astronauts up to the iss. The overall cost nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬ What is more, it has the advantage of being comparatively cheap. For Apollo nasa had to create not just the Saturn V but also the command and lunar modules which it hurled aloft; the total cost is put at around $300bn in today’s dollars. Then, though, the size and expense of the task were not an insuperable obstacle; indeed, they were part of the point. The project was a signal of just how much America was willing to stake on technological pre-eminence. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 18 is routinely celebrated. Wally Funk, a campaigning aviator who met all the criteria for being an astronaut in the 1960s save for her sex, will be a spacefaring guest of Mr Bezos’s on July 20th. Artemis, named after Apollo’s sister, is to be the means by which women and non-whites first reach the Moon. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ It’s lonely out in space ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ During the Trump administration nasa decided that Artemis should take the same approach to developing its Human Landing System (hls). Three proposals survived the first round of bidding last year: one from a “national team” led by Blue Origin, one from a consortium led by Dynetics, an American aerospace and computing contractor, and one from SpaceX. It was expected that two of the three would receive contracts to build systems, just as Boeing and SpaceX had both received contracts to develop capsules to take crew to the space station (Boeing has yet to fly a crew in its capsule, but will undertake a crewless test flight later this month). ＬＣＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ This will probably lead to delays. But the competitive approach is the right one. When nasa builds its own spacecraft prices go sky high, not least because politicians like to see federal money spent in their home states. The sls is a case in point. Its development costs, now sunk, have been enormous; it is far too expensive for frequent flights. A private company could have done the job much better—as SpaceX is showing with the development of its Starship launch system, similar in capacity to the sls but much more technically ambitious. Its “Raptor” engines are of an advanced design that no one has previously managed to make practical. It is intended to be entirely reusable. ＮＨＳＤ Prototypes of the sleek, stainless-steel-hulled Starship have been launching, landing and sometimes exploding at SpaceX’s plant in Texas for months as the company tests their nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ On April 16th, though, nasa awarded a single contract worth $2.9bn to SpaceX, saying it lacked the money to offer two. Both Blue Origin and Dynetics challenged the award, which is now being reviewed by the Government Accountability Office; its findings are expected on or before August 4th. Maria Cantwell, a senator from Blue Origin’s home state of Washington, subsequently sponsored an amendment to the bill authorising nasa’s budget which requires the agency to issue a second hls contract. The bill has passed the Senate, but as yet has no counterpart in the House. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 19 to nasa of developing the Crew Dragon this way was $3.1bn: that is only a little more than the total cost of the most recent Mars rover mission. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤＮＨＮＨＳＤ Blue Origin’s plans for a booster far larger than the petard with which Mr Bezos will hoist himself next week are not yet as far along. But Mr Bezos has money and determination, as well as friends in Washington. America could have three boosters capable of supporting human missions to the Moon, two private and one public, before China has even one. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ It is in such possibilities that the real promise of Artemis lies. The Chinese Moon programme is entirely a creature of government. Although there is a nascent private space sector in the country, it is not yet capable of anything so ambitious. (Nor is it entirely clear that the government is; the engines a booster big enough for Moon duty requires are far more sophisticated than anything it has yet built.) In this, China’s programme will resemble in form, if not in scale, America’s huge, centralised Apollo programme. One of the great ironies of the first space race was that at the peak of its efforts to stop the Moon from turning communist America was devoting more than 4% of government spending to a 400,000-worker planned economy entirely run by government officials. The stars look very different today nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨ The SpaceX hls Moon lander is a version of such a Starship, and nasa’s selection of it over its competitors is a vote of confidence in the company’s scheme. If it comes to fruition, it will outcompete the sls by more or less every measure save the employment of government contractors. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 20 new engines and their ability to change their orientation in mid-air. The next test flight will be the most ambitious yet. It will see the first use of a “Super Heavy” booster to launch a Starship almost into orbit (it will in fact come down about 6,000km away in the ocean off Hawaii). The 33 Raptors on the Super Heavy will generate twice as much thrust as the first stage of a Saturn V did. The eventual goal is for the Super Heavies, like the first stages of SpaceX’s Falcon boosters, to return and make a vertical landing after sending their Starships into orbit. There the Starships will either launch satellites and return to Earth or wait for a subsequent launch to refuel them before heading off to more distant destinations. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 21 This time round, it is possible that America will instead get to the Moon by supporting the aspirations of brilliant and determined—if sometimes petty—entrepreneurs and harnessing the capabilities they provide. It promises to be a more effective mode of exploration. It could also be the beginning of something more. While Mr Musk dreams of his Starships taking settlers to Mars, Mr Bezos talks of using resources from the Moon to build new industries in space (such as power-generation, asteroid mining or the production of exotic new materials). It is a vision shared by Chinese space enthusiasts such as Lieutenant-General Zhang Yulin, who works in a part of the People’s Liberation Army devoted to space- and cyber-operations. Its realisation, should it come to pass, may offer a truly dramatic answer to the question of which system can better respond to the challenges of the future. nhsdlc.cn ＮＨ 3.1 A space race would drive lunar development, expanding access to vital resources “China Has a Head Start in the New Space Race” Dr. Namrata Goswami, a specialist on outer space and great powers, The Diplomat, May 29, 2019 (https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/china-has-a-head-start-in-the-new-space-race/) ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Note from the NHSDLC: This article explores how competition drives development of lunar exploration and development technology with a detailed analysis of both the US and China’s plans and technology. ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Like NASA’s Apollo missions, named for the Greek god, China’s Lunar Exploration Program (CLEP) is named after a mythical figure: Chang’e, a Chinese moon goddess. Unlike Apollo, however, China’s Chang’e lunar mission is not a “flags and footprints” enterprise. Instead, like its mythical namesake Chang’e, who made the moon her home, the CLEP is aimed at establishing a permanent presence on the lunar surface by 2036, with an aim to utilize lunar resources like titanium and uranium, as well as iron-ore and water ice for rocket construction and propellant. This in-space manufacturing capability is a vital step to achieve China’s plans for deep space exploitation, to include asteroid mining and build solar power stations in geo-synchronous orbit by 2050. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ The current Chang’e 4 mission on the lunar far side has discovered fragments of the moon’s mantle. The Visible and Near Infrared Spectrometer (VNIS) on the Chang’e 4’s rover suggest that the rocks contain minerals known as low-calcium (ortho) pyroxene and olivine. A study of such mantle rocks could throw light on the moon’s mineralogical composition as well as on its origins and evolution. Unpacking the geology of the far side of the moon is critical as it differs from the near side, where the Apollo rocks were gathered. It could offer insights on future missions for sustainable human presence. nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨ On January 3, 2019, when China landed the Chang’e 4 probe on the Lunar South Pole, a first for humanity, the discourse on outer space shifted forever. For nearly 50 years, since July 20, 1969, we have lived in the Age of Apollo, which enabled humanity’s first steps on the moon. When dawn broke out on January 3, 2019, we entered the Age of Chang’e, focused on long-term settlement of the lunar poles. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 22 3. Pro Arguments ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬ Significantly, in reaction to China’s lunar program – which, incidentally, the CNSA announced as far back as 2007 (more than a decade ago) — U.S. Vice President, Mike Pence announced in March 2019 that: ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Rapidly, mining for lunar resources has become an uppermost priority for the United States as well. The NASA Swamp Works in Florida is prototyping robots like the Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot that can extract, mold, and analyze lunar soil for resources. NASA is planning on establishing a moon base by 2028, under a program called Artemis, named after a Greek goddess and the twin sister of Apollo. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Seizing on the five-year timeline set by Pence to get Americans back to the moon, Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO and founder of Blue Origin, revealed his company’s robotic lunar lander, Blue Moon, in a major speech on May 9. Bezos, taking his cues from Pence’s speech stated, “We can help meet that timeline, but only because we started three years ago…It’s time to go back to the moon, this time to stay.” Blue Origin is developing its New Glenn Rocket, scheduled for launch in 2021, and the New Shepard Capsule and nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ At the direction of the President of the United States, it is the stated policy of this administration and the United States of America to return American astronauts to the moon within the next five years… To be clear: the first woman and the next man on the moon will both be American astronauts, launched by American rockets from American soil… We have the technology to return to the moon and renew American leadership in human space exploration… We’re in a space race today, just as we were in the 1960s, and the stakes are even higher. Last December [sic], China became the first nation to land on the far side of the moon and revealed their ambition to seize the lunar strategic high ground and become the world’s pre-eminent spacefaring nation… ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 23 By the end of this year, China is launching the Chang’e 5 mission to the near side of the moon, to bring back samples to Earth for further investigation. On April 24, 2019, on the occasion of China’s Spaceflight Day, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) head, Zhang Kejian, announced China’s plan to establish a research base on the Lunar South Pole within the next 10 years. China is sending two robotic probes to the poles by 2030, to determine the existence of water-ice and other resources. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤ More than 17 years ago, in 2002, Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist of China’s lunar exploration program, stated that, “The moon could serve as a new and tremendous supplier of energy and resources for human beings… This is crucial to sustainable development of human beings on Earth… Whoever first conquers the moon will benefit first.” Five years later, in 2007, China’s moon goddess-inspired lunar mission, the Chang’e 1 was launched. ＬＣＳＤＬＣ The Great Race for Lunar Resources ＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Significantly, other countries and private companies are racing to the moon for its resources as well. India aims to launch the Chandrayaan 2 between July 5 and 16, 2019, with a scheduled landing around September 6, 2019, close to the Lunar South Pole. According to the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), “the payloads will collect scientific information on lunar topography, mineralogy, elemental abundance, lunar exosphere and signatures of hydrogel and water-ice.” ＮＨＳＤ ROSMOCOS, the Russian space agency, in a meeting in November 2018 announced Russian plans to establish a lunar colony by 2040. Alexander Sergeyev, the president of nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Very similar to China’s long-term space ambitions of lunar settlement and space industrialization, Bezos’ May 9 speech highlighted the need for a specific long-term vision of human settlement and industrialization in space. Both Bezos and China seem to be propelled by similar concerns. For China, depending on Earth-based nonrenewable resources to fuel the Chinese economy is not wise; therefore, developing capacity for accessing the vast resources of space is a way forward. Similarly, Bezos firmly believes that humanity must become space faring and develop the capacity to live in space since Earth’s resources are finite. Bezos intends to use the Blue Moon lander to start mining the moon for its natural resources, like water-ice. “Ultimately, we’re going to be able to get hydrogen from that water on the moon, and be able to refuel these vehicles on the surface of the moon,” he said. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 24 Rocket Booster system, powered by liquid hydrogen. Bezos has long-term plans of moving all Earth-based heavy industry to space. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ In the meantime, Japanese billionaire, Yusaku Maezawa bought all seats on a Space X spaceflight, utilizing the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR), for his Dear Moon project headed for the Moon in 2023. Elon Musk, founder of Space X has offered his own vision of outer space colonization: build Mars Base Alpha by 2028, and by 2030 a city that could support up to 1 million people. We nearly experienced the first private company landing on the moon this year, when Israeli nonprofit SpaceIL’s Beresheet lander failed just minutes before landing on the lunar surface. The Israeli Space Agency (ISA) is now getting involved with the Beresheet 2, with an injunction of $5.6 million. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ The competition between countries to get to the lunar poles is on, in the aftermath of the Chang’e 4 landing on the far side. There is, however, a clear difference between China’s ambitions and those of others. While countries like the United States, India, Japan, South Korea are aiming for lunar pole landings for space science and exploration purposes, China is the only country to articulate a long-term vision of space settlement and utilization. It is the only country to have invested serious money ($30 million) in future space technologies like space-based solar power that will help power such a lunar base. nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Japan and South Korea have both announced programs to land on the lunar poles. Japan’s Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) mission aims to land near one of the lunar poles by 2020. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is planning a resource prospector as well by 2020. The Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) is developing its pathfinder lunar orbiter, viewing its potential success as establishing South Korea as a major space power. The European Space Agency (ESA) aims to establish a Moon Village, which would be open to resource exploitation as well as “scientific and technological activities” and tourism. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 25 the Russian Academy of Sciences, highlighted the critical significance of the moon, especially from a lunar poles’ resources perspective. “Moon exploration issues are now heading the agenda of our Space Council…There are many different opinions that are the driving force — projects that can rally society and the scientific community, or is it something scientifically disruptive. The moon can be a very important object.” Critically, both Russia and China view the development of their lunar presence capabilities from a national interest perspective. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣ China’s 30-year space goals (2019-2049), propelled by President Xi Jinping’s China Dream and operationalized within his civil-military integration strategy, put Beijing clearly in the lead with regard to space-renewable energy generation, industrialization, and resource utilization. With the Chang’e 4 already up there exploring and investigating on the lunar far side, and with another mission to follow this year, China is the only country with a demonstrated capability to get to the lunar far side. Only time will tell if others can follow suit, and establish an enduring, sustainable lunar presence. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 26 No other country has been able to match the long-term space goals of China as of yet. These goals include establishing permanent presence on the lunar surface, space mining, developing solar power stations in geo-synchronous orbit, and accelerating the modernization of military space institutions. While private entrepreneurs like Bezos and Musk have publicly articulated similar long-term space settlement goals, there is no longstanding U.S. government space policy that offer similar far-reaching visions. For the most part, U.S. space experts are in denial of China’s space success or tend to be dismissive of how the discourse on outer space is changing: moving from either “showing off” space technology to impress people on Earth (the hallmark of the Apollo era) or simply developing counterspace weapons for military advantage, to actually viewing space in its own right, with resources to extract (Chang’e era). nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ “As China’s space ambitions grow, NASA tells congress it needs more money to compete” Christian Davenport, The Washington Post, June 17 2021 ＳＤＬＬＣＣ Note from the NHSDLC: This article details how the coming space race between the US and China is used on both sides to increase government allotment for space exploration. Because space exploration is often politically popular, politicians are pressured to ‘win’ the space race. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ In an effort to galvanize NASA’s return to the moon, then-Vice President Mike Pence in 2019 sought to re-create the 1960s Cold War space race, when the United States beat the Soviet Union to the lunar surface. But this time the role of rival was played not by the U.S.S.R., but by China, which Pence warned was trying “to seize the lunar strategic high ground and become the world’s spacefaring nation.” ＮＨＮＨＳＤ Some doubt the wisdom of Nelson’s approach, however. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨ Nelson’s strategy, like the Trump administration’s, is to cast China as a competitor racing not only to the moon, but for leadership in space more broadly. It’s a scenario that got a boost Thursday when China launched the first group of astronauts to its nascent space station for what is expected to be a three-month stay — the longest duration space mission ever by a Chinese crew. ＳＬＣ Bill Nelson, President Biden’s new NASA administrator, has carried on that hawkish rhetoric, casting China as “a very aggressive competitor” that has big ambitions in space and is challenging America’s leadership. “Watch the Chinese,” he recently warned. ＳＤＬＣＳＤＬＣ “Making the Chinese space station out to be such a serious threat is a mistake as it plays into China’s own political goals,” said Brian Weeden, the director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation, a think tank whose mission statement calls for the promotion of “ideas and actions to achieve the secure, sustainable, and peaceful uses of space benefiting Earth and all its peoples.” ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 27 3.2.1 A space race causes nations to commit more resources to science than they otherwise would nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Cooperation with China in space is not on the horizon. NASA, which landed men on the moon in 1969 and has had crew living aboard the International Space Station for 20 years, has been barred by law since 2011 from partnering with China — no Chinese astronaut has ever been aboard the International Space Station, which has been host to astronauts from nearly 20 nations. There is no prospect of that changing anytime soon in a Washington where China is seen as a fierce competitor in a wide range of technological endeavors, from quantum computers to the rollout of 5G. ＬＣ That is especially true for space, because the technologies used in space also are used for national defense, said Scott Kennedy, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨ “These deep concerns about China as a military competitor forestalls cooperation in dual-use technologies, and there are no technologies used in space that aren’t dual-use,” he said. U.S. and Chinese cooperation in space, he said, would require the kind of detente that the United States and Soviet Union achieved toward the end of the Cold War. “But we are very far from that.” ＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ China’s space agency has shown remarkable progress on its path to becoming a preeminent spacefaring power. In 2019, it landed an uncrewed spacecraft on the far side of the moon, a first. Last month, it became only the second country, after the United States, to land a rover on Mars. Earlier this week, China and Russia announced plans to build an international base on the moon. And then came Thursday’s launch. ＳＤ About six hours after that launch, the astronauts docked with China’s Tiangong space station. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 28 “China is trying to use its space station to show that it, too, is a space power, and these constant allusions to a space race and concerns about the threat posed by their space station are reinforcing that message,” Weeden said. Thursday’s launch, he said, was “an important achievement, but it does not mean China has equaled, let alone surpassed, the U.S.” nhsdlc.cn ＮＨ In a statement, Nelson congratulated China “on the successful launch of crew to their space station! I look forward to the scientific discoveries to come.” ＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Another front in the tensions between the U.S. and China: Space ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣ NASA had been planning to fly astronauts to the moon by 2028. But the Trump administration sought to accelerate that, mandating the space agency do it by 2024, a highly aggressive timetable that few thought possible. Under the Biden administration, NASA is reviewing the lunar program, dubbed Artemis, but Nelson has embraced it and its aggressive timeline. And he has spent his first few weeks as NASA administrator picking up where his predecessor, Jim Bridenstine, left off: lobbying Congress for the funds to make it happen. ＮＨＬＣ Nelson’s strategy, in part, is to cast China as a competitor. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Speaking before House appropriators last month, Nelson said that China was seeking to land humans on the moon in the 2020s. That, he said, should motivate Congress to give NASA more money for its Artemis program as it seeks to develop a spacecraft, known as the Human Landing System, that would ferry astronauts to the lunar surface. In addition to the Artemis program, Nelson also has called for the life of the International Space Station, which has had humans living on it continuously for more than 20 years, to be extended to 2030. ＳＤＬＣ Last year, Congress appropriated $850 million for the lunar lander, well short of NASA’s $3.3 billion request. In its request for funding in this year’s budget, NASA has requested $1.2 billion for the lander, but the program is tied up in litigation. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＣ But, like the Trump administration before him, Nelson has sought to leverage China’s space ambitions as a way to get Congress to fund NASA’s plans to return to the moon, while the space agency works to build an international coalition of its own. ＮＨ 29 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ At another point in the hearing, he held up a photograph for the committee of the Zhurong rover that landed on Mars last month. “I want you to see this photograph,” he said, adding that it was a part of China’s goal to eclipse the United States in space. ＬＣＮＨＮＨ The United States has had a proliferation of human space successes recently. Over the past year, SpaceX flew three human spaceflight missions for NASA. Boeing also hopes to fly one by the end of this year. And Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are continuing development of their suborbital space tourism programs. ＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ After NASA awarded SpaceX a $3 billion contract in April to use its Starship spacecraft to fly astronauts to and from the lunar surface, the losing bidders, Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin and Dynetics, a defense contractor, protested the award with the Government Accountability Office. That has forced NASA to put a hold on the contract. (Bezos owns The Washington Post.) ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Meanwhile, Congress passed a bill that would require NASA to award two lunar lander contracts for future lunar missions. But it’s not clear that the $10 billion authorized to fund the contracts will get appropriated by Congress. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ A recent bright spot for the program, though, is NASA’s much-beleaguered Space Launch System rocket, which would send NASA astronauts to the moon. After years of delays, it successfully completed a full-duration engine test. The 212-foot core stage of the rocket was shipped to the Kennedy Space Center, where it has been mated with its side solid rocket boosters. Nelson has repeatedly said it could fly for the first time this nhsdlc.cn Ｓ A key part of NASA’s Artemis program is stalled, however. ＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 30 Meanwhile, Nelson has said he hopes Congress gives NASA the money it needs to compete. China’s lunar ambitions “should tell us something about our need to get off our duff and get on our Human Landing System program going, vigorously, and NASA can’t do it alone,” he said during the House hearing. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤ China, meanwhile, also is seeking international collaboration for the moon. Earlier this week, it announced an International Lunar Research Station, a joint program with Russia. In a statement, the two countries’ space agencies said they “jointly invite all interested international partners to cooperate and contribute more for the peaceful exploration and use of [the] moon in the interests of all humankind, adhering to the principle of equality, openness and integrity.” ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＣ NASA also is building an international coalition to support the lunar mission and create norms of behavior in space. Signatories to the Artemis Accords would be able to partner with NASA in its lunar exploration program but would be required to adhere to a set of standards including the public release of scientific data. The program began in 2020 under the Trump administration but has been continued under Biden. Earlier this week, Nelson welcomed Brazil as the newest signatory. ＳＤＳＤＮＨ 31 year in a trip that would propel the Orion spacecraft, without any astronauts on board, on an autonomous trip around the moon. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet “The Race to Develop the Moon” Rivka Galchen, The New Yorker, April 29, 2019 ＮＨ Note from the NHSDLC: This article provides more details and warrants as to how a space race leads to increased funding in long form. It also covers details on the history of both nation’s space exploration program. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ In January, the China National Space Administration landed a spacecraft on the far side of the moon, the side we can’t see from Earth. Chang’e-4 was named for a goddess in Chinese mythology, who lives on the moon for reasons connected to her husband’s problematic immortality drink. The story has many versions. In one, Chang’e has been banished to the moon for elixir theft and turned into an ugly toad. In another, she has saved humanity from a tyrannical emperor by stealing the drink. In many versions, she is a luminous beauty and has as a companion a pure-white rabbit. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ You may have watched the near-operatic progress of Chang’e-4’s graceful landing. Or the uncannily cute robotic amblings of the lander’s companion, the Yutu-2 rover, named for the moon goddess’s white rabbit. You may have read that, aboard the lander, seeds germinated (cotton, rapeseed, and potato; the Chinese are also trying to grow a flowering plant known as mouse-ear cress), and that the rover survived the fourteen-day lunar night, when temperatures drop to negative two hundred and seventy degrees Fahrenheit. Chang’e-4 is a step in China’s long-term plan to build a base on the moon, a goal toward which the country has rapidly been advancing since it first orbited the moon, in 2007. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ If you missed the Chinese mission, maybe it’s because you were focussed on the remarkably inexpensive spacecraft from SpaceIL, an Israeli nonprofit organization, which crash-landed into the moon on April 11th, soon after taking a selfie while hovering above the lunar surface. The crash was not the original plan, and SpaceIL has already nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ Chang’e-4 is the first vehicle to alight on the far side of the moon. From that side, the moon blocks radio communication with Earth, which makes landing difficult, and the surface there is craggy and rough, with a mountain taller than anything on Earth. Older geologies are exposed, from which billions of years of history can be deduced. Chang’e-4 landed in a nearly four-mile-deep hole that was formed when an ancient meteor crashed into the moon—one of the largest known impact craters in our solar system. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 32 3.2.2 Resource allocation, continued ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Shortly before nasa launched Apollo 11, it received a letter from the Union of Persian Storytellers, begging nasa to change the plan: a moon landing would rob the world of its illusions, and rob the union’s members of their livelihood. During the spacecraft’s flight, the Mission Control Center, in Houston, asked the crew to look out for Chang’e, and for her bunny, too. Houston said that the bunny would be “easy to spot, since he is always standing on his hind feet in the shade of a cinnamon tree.” Buzz Aldrin responded, “We’ll keep a close eye out for the bunny girl.” ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ “The moon is hot again,” Jack Burns, the director of the NASA-funded Network for Exploration and Space Science, told me. ness’s headquarters are at the University of Colorado Boulder, which has educated nineteen astronauts. (Boulder was also the setting for the television sitcom “Mork & Mindy,” in which Robin Williams played an alien from the planet Ork.) Part of ness’s mission is to dream up experiments to be done on the moon. An informational poster at the entrance reads “Challenges of Measuring Cosmic Dawn with the 21-cm Sky-Averaged, Global Signal.” In the decades since Apollo 11, nasa has invented Earth-mapping satellites, launched the Hubble Space Telescope, collaborated on the International Space Station, and studied Mars. But none of these projects have generated the broad and childlike wonder of the moon. nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨ Fifty years ago, three men journeyed from a small Florida peninsula to a dry crater some two hundred and forty thousand miles away called the Sea of Tranquillity. Hundreds of millions of people watched on black-and-white TVs as a man from Wapakoneta, Ohio, climbed slowly down a short ladder and reported in a steady voice that his footprint had depressed the soil only a fraction of an inch, that “the surface appears to be very finegrained as you get close to it, it’s almost like a powder down there, it’s very fine.” ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 33 announced its intention of going to the moon again. But maybe you weren’t paying attention to SpaceIL, either, because you were anticipating India’s Chandrayaan-2 moon lander, expected to take off later this year. Or you were waiting for Japan’s first lunarlander-and-rover mission, scheduled to take place next year. Perhaps you’ve been distracted by the announcement, in January, on the night of the super blood wolf moon, that the European Space Agency plans to mine lunar ice by 2025. Or by Vice-President Mike Pence’s statement, in March, that the United States intends “to return American astronauts to the moon within the next five years.” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ The planetary scientist Bruce Hapke, who has a yellowish, opaque lunar mineral— hapkeite—named for him, said, “Almost every President since Nixon proposed going back to the moon.” (President Obama focussed instead on studying an asteroid near Earth and working toward the distant goal of sending astronauts to Mars.) “But the money was never allotted. Congress decided we couldn’t have guns and the moon at the same time.” The Department of Defense’s budget is now nearly seven hundred billion dollars, whereas nasa’s funding is $21.5 billion, or around half of one per cent of the national budget. The U.S. is still believed to spend more on space programs than the rest of the world combined. (China’s budget, however, is unknown.) Hapke said, “The trouble is, there was always some kind of emergency, always some war going on. Though that Cold War mentality also got us to the moon.” ＮＨ A man asks Moses where he got his ideas for the Ten Commandments. “Where do you get your ideas?” ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Hapke recalls being told by several scientists and nasa employees that, “when the moon landing was first conceived, it was a strictly political stunt: go to the moon, plant the flag, and come back to Earth.” The original design of the spacecraft allotted little to no room for scientific payloads. “When the scientific community got wind of this, they pointed out strongly to nasa all the fantastic science that could be done, and the nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 34 Burns, who is sixty-six years old, remembers the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo missions—the Cold War-era efforts, beginning in the late fifties, that put men in space and finally landed them on the moon. He teaches a course on the history of space policy. “The U.S. had already lost the start of the space race,” he said, of the origins of Apollo. “The Soviet Union was first with a satellite in space. They were first with an astronaut in space.” Yuri Gagarin’s journey into outer space took place in April, 1961. President John F. Kennedy delivered his moon-shot speech the following month, and Congress eventually allocated 4.4 per cent of the national budget to nasa. “But, if you live by political motivations, you die by political motivations,” Burns said. “Apollo died. Nixon killed the program.” Only twelve people have walked on the moon, all of them between the summer of 1969 and Christmas, 1972. All the moonwalkers were men, all were American, all but one were Boy Scouts, and almost all listened to country-and-Western music on their way to the moon; they earned eight dollars a day, minus a fee for a bed on the spacecraft. Since the last moonwalk, humans have launched crafts that have orbited the moon, crashed probes into it, and taken increasingly detailed photos of it. But no one has been back. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Burns told me that advances in engineering could turn the moon into a way station for launching rockets and satellites farther into the solar system, to Mars and beyond. (The weak gravity on the moon dramatically eases launches.) Lunar construction projects now look feasible. “Down the hall, we have a telerobotics lab,” Burns said. “You could print components of habitats, of telescopes. You use the lunar regolith”—the dust of the moon—“as your printing material. You could print the wrench you need to fix something.” Fifteen years ago, the moon was believed to be a dry rock; now we know that there’s water there. Both private industry and national agencies regard the mining of water and precious materials as something that’s not too far off. There’s space tourism, too, though the quiet consensus among scientists seems to be that the idea is goofy and impractical. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ nasa would like to establish a permanent presence on the moon, using reusable rockets and landers. The agency is working on the largest, strongest, fastest—of course—rocket yet, but it plans to purchase other equipment, including rockets and landers, off the shelf, from commercial companies. Bob Jacobs, a spokesperson for nasa, told me, “Eighty-five per cent of nasa’s budget is for commercial contracts. We build what only we can build; the other services we look to purchase from approved venders.” nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬ Burns said, “This time we need a more sustainable set of goals and reasons” for going to the moon. He meant a science mission, or a business mission, or both. “We don’t like to say we’re going back to the moon,” but forward, he added. “Our objectives are different. Our technology is different. Apollo had five kilobytes of ram. Your iPhone is millions of times more powerful.” Watching the footage of Neil Armstrong’s first steps, it takes a moment for one’s eyes to make sense of the low-resolution image, which could easily be overexposed film or a Robert Motherwell painting. “It’s amazing they made it.” ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 35 whole tone of the project was changed,” he said. Hapke was then at Cornell, where he and his lab mates studied what the lunar soil might be like; the moon’s characteristic reflectivity helped them deduce that the surface must be a fine dust. For Hapke, the Apollo era remains the most exciting time in his scientific life. He also recalls “the widespread puzzlement in both Congress and the general populace after the first landing: ‘We beat the Russians. Why are we going back?’ ” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Even in fantasy, space ventures have always mingled idealistic and worldly motives. H. G. Wells published “The First Men in the Moon” in 1901. The novel’s narrator, Mr. Bedford, wants to make money. His collaborator, Mr. Cavor, dreams of knowledge. Together they go to the moon. When they encounter moon dwellers—“compact, bristling” creatures, “having much of the quality of a complicated insect”—Bedford wants to destroy them; Cavor wants to learn from them. Bedford finds gold, and embarks “upon an argument to show the infinite benefits our arrival would confer upon the moon,” involving himself “in a rather difficult proof that the arrival of Columbus was, on the whole, beneficial to America.” Cavor is indifferent to the gold—it’s a familiar mineral. Moon dwellers capture and chain Bedford and Cavor, then march them underground. Cavor assumes that there must be other, less brutal moon dwellers, as enlightened and knowledge-loving as he. In the end, Bedford makes it back to Earth. Cavor is presumed dead. But no one with a heart reads the novel and wants to be Bedford. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Burns grew up in Shirley, Massachusetts. Neither of his parents graduated from high school. From the age of five, he knew that he wanted to study the stars. When I asked him what he hopes to see on the moon, he became suddenly boyish: “I’d love to set up a low-frequency radio telescope on the far side of the moon, free from the nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ There are also more emotionally leveraged business models, like that of Celestis, a funeral-services company, which puts cremains into space, and has plans to take them to the moon. The Japanese beverage Pocari Sweat wants to be the first sports drink on the moon. Its manufacturer has booked a spot on a lunar lander developed by a Pittsburgh-based company, Astrobotic, which is scheduled to launch in 2021, and to land in the Lacus Mortis—the Lake of Death, which is actually a dry, flat area. Pocari Sweat employees have collected stories of children’s dreams from across Asia and etched them onto titanium plates. The plates will be put inside a capsule designed to look like a Pocari Sweat can, and will travel with some Pocari Sweat powder that will one day—so the plan goes—be mixed with moon water. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 36 Burns likens this de-facto government support of commercial space exploration to the dawn of the airline industry: “In the nineteen-twenties, early airline companies survived only because the government paid them to deliver the mail.” It wasn’t until later, when ordinary people became aeronauts, that the airline industry became economically viable. “I think we’re looking at something similar with space exploration,” Burns said. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Johns showed me a collection of small telescopes, and discussed the eighteenth-century French astronomer Charles Messier. “Back then, the way astronomers made money was finding comets and telling kings they had a comet to name after them,” she said. When Messier was eleven, his father died, and afterward he received no formal schooling. But he developed an exceptional gift for finding comets. “To find those comets, he documented everything he could see in the sky,” Johns said. “Once he was sure a sky object wasn’t a comet, it was of no interest to him. Some of that stuff he found turned out to be Andromeda, and the Crab Nebula.” She showed me a large telescope on a mount developed by John Dobson, a chemist by training, who worked briefly on the Manhattan Project, then resolved to spend the rest of his life as a monk. While living at a monastery in San Francisco, he would walk the shipyards, gathering old porthole glass to fashion into homemade telescopes, which he would share with others in sidewalk astronomy lectures. “The monks eventually asked him to leave,” Johns said. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Johns became a telescope operator relatively late in her professional life. She had worked in human resources, and enjoyed it, but at a difficult moment she found herself at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science, where her parents used to take her as a child. “I looked through the telescope and I began to cry,” she said. She had always loved science, but had chosen another career because of family and financial nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ The night I met with Burns was the eve of a supermoon—when the moon is both full and as close to Earth as it gets. I walked over to the Sommers-Bausch Observatory, not far from Burns’s office; there was a bunny in the bushes, trying not to be noticed. Carla Johns, who operates the observatory’s telescopes, met me in the hallway, which is lit in red, to keep your eyes adapted to the dark. On the top floor, she pressed a button, and the roof noisily rolled back. There it was, with all its starry friends. Johns explained how the telescopes worked—they are essentially buckets of light. She said that children often shout when they see the moon so close. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 37 interference of Earth signals. It could see to the beginnings of time. And the far side of the moon has craters there that were formed during the Late Heavy Bombardment, four billion years ago.” During the Late Heavy Bombardment, large numbers of meteors crashed into the inner solar system. The period coincides roughly—and perhaps not coincidentally—with the beginnings of life on Earth. Burns said, “Earth was also bombarded, but here that history has been erased or buried by weather, erosion. On the moon, it’s still right there on the surface. It’s a history book. I’d like to read that book.” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Shortly before the turnoff for the town of Mojave, California, there were train cars along the right side of the road, painted old-fashioned black and standing still. On the left were hundreds of white wind turbines, spinning. Soon I came to a slightly weathered sign for the Mojave Air and Space Port—“Imagination Flies Here”—which features a picture of a young boy holding a toy plane. You’re allowed to launch rockets here; you’re allowed to fly objects beyond the atmosphere. A number of aerospace firms have offices at the port. In November, 2018, nasa named nine companies to be part of its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program: if nasa wants to send something to the moon, these companies are approved to provide transportation. “FedEx to space,” I was told to think of it. “Or DHL.” Some of them are large and well known, like Lockheed Martin Space. Masten Space Systems has sixteen employees. It is based at the Air and Space Port, down the road from Virgin Galactic, in offices that resemble the extra building my elementary school put in the playground when enrollment exceeded capacity. When Masten won a nasa-funded prize—for vertical takeoff and precision landing in conditions simulating those of the moon—it had five employees. Its winning rocket, Xoie, looks like a slim, silvery water tower, only ninety inches tall—two stacked spheres on a tripod, with tanks of helium on the sides. ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ “Our focus is on reusable rockets,” Masten’s C.E.O., Sean Mahoney, told me. “We have a rocket that has flown two hundred and twenty-seven times. We want space to be affordable.” Masten plans to begin taking payloads to the moon in 2021: “Mostly science payloads, mostly nasa. Some commercial.” Among the items that nasa wants to send are a solar-power cell and a navigation device that the agency will test in lunar conditions. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Mahoney and I talked over a meal at the Voyager Restaurant, on the grounds of the spaceport. The Voyager looks like Mel’s Diner, from the TV show “Alice.” (A lot about lunar exploration reminded me of old television shows, especially “Bonanza.”) I had a grilled-cheese sandwich—spaceport food. Mahoney said, “There’s the PBS version of space, which is beautiful. And that is real. But, also, space—well, you’ve heard of the military-industrial complex? Space is an offshoot of that.” Something shiny and fleet nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 38 issues. “I said to myself, ‘I need to be involved with this.’ ” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ We walked through strong winds to the hangars where Masten does its manufacturing. There were none of the vacuum chambers and clean white rooms that one associates with rocket science. Instead, there were trailer beds loaded with rocket parts for testing; there were purple-and-yellow long-sleeved T-shirts for launch days. There were tanks of helium, wrenches of every size. A young man wearing an Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University sweatshirt and a welding mask was making an engine casing. Mahoney pointed out an engine without its casing, next to a small computer. “Some of these rocket models are literally operated by Raspberry Pi,” he said. ＮＨ Two married people stand on a sidewalk holding clipboards and soliciting signatures from passersby to save their marriage. ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣ “Do you have a moment to save our marriage?” ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ “Raspberry pie?” ＮＨＮＨ “That’s a very basic computer. A thirty-five-dollar computer. My point being, some of our parts we can buy at Home Depot.” ＳＤＬＣ Masten was founded, in 2004, by David Masten, a former software-and-systems engineer, who remains the chief technical officer. “When I was a kid, I was going to be an astronaut,” Masten told me. “But, by the nineteen-eighties, space was getting boring—it wasn’t going anywhere—and there was this new thing called computers.” He became an I.T. consultant, and eventually worked at a series of startups. Throughout, Masten’s hobby remained rockets. “My thought was that, maybe, instead of doing the ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 39 was taking off in the distance, and the windows shook. Mahoney pointed out a tumbleweed blowing across the lot. “I’m a business guy by background, not a space guy, so I had to learn all of this,” he said. Mahoney believes that, because the space industry was a government-sanctioned monopoly for decades, there was no room for risk, or for competition; the fear of failure dominated. “Lockheed Martin and Boeing could charge exorbitant prices,” he said. “As a business person, when you see a fat margin—when you see a service that can be provided much more cheaply—you see value.” nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ When a Masten rocket takes off, it has a delicate appearance. One of the newer ones, the Xodiac, looks like two golden balloons mounted on a metal skeleton. A kite tail of fire shoots out as the Xodiac launches straight up; at its apex, it has the ability to tilt and float down at an angle, as casually as a leaf. When Xodiac nears its designated landing spot, it abruptly slows, aligns, seems to hesitate, lands. It’s eerie—at that moment, the rocket seems sentient, intentional. ＬＣ In one demonstration, the Xodiac performed a deceptively mundane task: it carried a “planetvac”—an invention intended to vacuum dust from the lunar surface—up and over one metre, deployed the vacuum, then scooted up and over another metre, hopping like a lunar janitor. The rockets are self-guided, unless overridden by a human; they are doing their own thing. “We believe computers can fly rockets better than people can,” Masten told me. ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＮＨ Many scientists see little need for humans on the moon, since robots would do the work more safely and inexpensively. ＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ “Now, you will ask me what in the world we went up on the Moon for,” Qfwfq, the narrator of Italo Calvino’s “Cosmicomics,” says. “We went to collect the milk, with a big spoon and a bucket.” In our world, we are going for water. “Water is the oil of space,” George Sowers, a professor of space resources at the Colorado School of Mines, in Golden, told me. On the windowsill of Sowers’s office is a bumper sticker that reads “My other vehicle explored Pluto.” This is because his other vehicle did explore Pluto. Sowers served as the chief systems engineer of the rocket that, in 2006, launched nasa’s New Horizons spacecraft, which has flown by Pluto and continued on to Ultima Thule, a snowman-shaped, nineteen-mile-long rock that is the most distant object a spacecraft has ever reached. “I only got into space resources in the past two years,” he said. His laboratory at the School of Mines designs, among other things, small vehicles that could one day be controlled by artificial intelligence and used to mine lunar water. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 40 heavy analysis traditional of the aerospace industry, you do something more like I was used to,” he said. “You write some code, you compile it, you test it, and you iterate over and over in a tight, rapid fashion. I wanted to apply that method to rocketry.” nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ “Here, let me show you something very fancy,” Hunter Williams, who was wearing sapphire-colored earrings, said. He poured some Morton sea salt into a plastic cup and added water. He stuck two silver thumbtacks through the bottom of the plastic cup, then held a battery up to them. Small bubbles began forming on the thumbtacks. The oxygen was separating from the hydrogen. You probably did this experiment in middle school, without knowing that you were doing rocket science. “The idea is for whatever goes up to the moon to be that simple,” Williams said. “To be that basic.” ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ “It would be like living off the land,” Ben Thrift, another graduate student, added. Thrift studied theatre as an undergraduate, and later ran a bakery, before earning a degree in engineering and enrolling in the space-resources program. “I decided to grow up and do something real,” he said. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ “By ‘real,’ he means go to the moon,” Abbud-Madrid said. nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨ Down the hall, in the Center for Space Resources’ laboratory, near buckets of lunar and asteroid simulants, was a small 3-D printer. Four graduate students were assembled there with Angel Abbud-Madrid, the center’s director. I asked them how difficult it would be to 3-D-print, say, an electrolyzer—the machine needed to separate the hydrogen and oxygen in water to make rocket fuel. They laughed. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 41 Water in space is valuable for drinking, of course, and as a source of oxygen. Sowers told me that it can also be transformed into rocket fuel. “The moon could be a gas station,” he said. That sounded terrible to me, but not to most of the scientists I spoke to. “It could be used to refuel rockets on the way to Mars”—a trip that would take about nine months—“or considerably beyond, at a fraction of the cost of launching them from Earth,” Sowers said. He explained that launching fuel from the moon rather than from Earth is like climbing the Empire State Building rather than Mt. Everest. Fuel accounts for around ninety per cent of the weight of a rocket, and every kilogram of weight brought from Earth to the moon costs roughly thirty-five thousand dollars; if you don’t have to bring fuel from Earth, it becomes much cheaper to send a probe to Jupiter. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤＮＨ Other specialists have a different view of the resources available in space. Asteroids contain precious metals, such as platinum, palladium, and gold. A number of asteroidmining companies have come and gone since 2015, when Neil deGrasse Tyson remarked that “the first trillionaire there’ll ever be is the person who mines asteroids for their natural resources.” But asteroid hunting is like whaling, in the length of its missions and the speculative nature of its success; the moon is only three days away, and its movements are extremely well known to us. nasa recently named ten companies as potential contractors for equipment to gather and analyze soil in space. ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ One of them was Honeybee Robotics. I visited its exploration-technology division, in Pasadena, which, from the outside, looks as dull as fro-yo, a collection of beige concrete buildings. Inside were lunar-rock samplers, the planetvac that was tested on a Masten rocket, some Nerf guns, and wine (which stands for “World Is Not Enough”), a steampowered spacecraft designed to find water in lunar dirt (or on asteroids), convert it to energy, then hop to the next site, to pull up samples and more water for fuel. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ Kris Zacny, a vice-president of Honeybee Robotics, was expecting his third child in the next few days. “So much has to do with where you’re born,” he said, explaining how he came to the field of space mining. Zacny is originally from Poland, the son of a musician father, who wanted him to be a musician as well. “What a disappointment I must have been,” Zacny said. “I spent my time thinking about the moon.” When he was seventeen, his family moved to South Africa. Zacny went to college on a scholarship from De Beers, and worked in the diamond mines while in school. “I graduated top of my class, with a degree in mechanical engineering, and next thing I knew I was twelve thousand feet underground,” he said. He spent two years in a coal mine, and a month in a gold mine that at the time was the deepest mine in the world. “I always dreamed of nhsdlc.cn ＳＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 42 “Transportation is not an end in itself,” Sowers told me. He is excited about solar power, which already runs many satellites in space, where there is no night, or clouds. He speculates that, if we had a base on the moon, we could use 3-D printers to make giant solar panels, as large as two kilometres, which could be launched into orbit; the resulting power could be beamed back to Earth via microwave radiation. “Space solar would be an unlimited, inexhaustible source of green energy,” Sowers said. “It requires no magic, and much of the technology is ready. I think we could do it by 2030, if we wanted to.” Another bumper sticker in Sowers’s office reads “Physicists have strange quarks.” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ In 2000, he landed a one-year position as a research assistant for a professor in Berkeley’s Materials Science and Engineering Department. “I knew it was too late for me to be a space guy, I accepted that. But I had the mining expertise. I said to the professor, ‘Don’t laugh at me, but I’d like to do extraterrestrial mining.’ ” What can be found on the moon remains for the most part unknown, though there is reasoned speculation. Honeybee is one of a growing number of companies that are developing standardized lunar rovers. Small countries with no national space agency, as well as private entities, could soon have their own robotic resource hunters roving around the moon, with little honeycomb emblems on their sides. An elderly woman calls her daughter to talk about a health concern. ＬＣＬＣＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ The guiding laws of space are defined by the Outer Space Treaty, from 1967, which has been signed by a hundred and eight countries, including all those with substantial space programs. “Laws that govern outer space are similar to the laws for the high seas,” Alain Berinstain, the vice-president of global development at the lunar-exploration company Moon Express, explained. “If you are two hundred miles away from the continental shelf, those waters don’t belong to anybody—they belong to everybody.” Moon Express describes the moon as the eighth continent. The company, which is based in Florida, is hoping to deliver its first lander to the moon in 2020; on board will be telescopes and the Celestis cremains. “If you look down at the waters from your ship and see fish, those fish belong to everybody,” Berinstain continued. “But, if you put a net down and pull those fish onto the deck of the ship, they’re yours. This could change, but right now that is how the U.S. is interpreting the Outer Space Treaty.” nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ Buzz Aldrin had hoped, and briefly expected, that it would be he, and not Neil Armstrong, who would take the first human step on the moon. The astronaut Michael Collins, who manned the control module that orbited the moon while Armstrong and Aldrin walked below, has said of Aldrin that he “resents not being first on the moon more than he appreciates being second.” On the moon, Armstrong took photos of Aldrin posing, but Aldrin took none of Armstrong doing the same. One of the few photos that shows Neil Armstrong on the moon was taken by Armstrong himself—of his reflection in Aldrin’s helmet, as Aldrin salutes the flag. We are petty and misbehave on Earth; we will be petty and misbehave in space. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 43 space, but it wasn’t an option for me,” he said. ＳＤＬＬＣＣＮＨ Individual countries have their own interpretations of the treaty, and set up their own regulatory frameworks. Luxembourg promotes itself as “a unique legal, regulatory and business environment” for companies devoted to space resources, and is the first European country to pass legislation similar to that of the U.S., deeming resources collected in space to be ownable by private entities. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ So there is a tacit space race already. On the one hand, every national space agency applauded the success of the Chang’e-4 lander. The mission had science partnerships with Germany, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden. nasa collaborates with many countries in space, sharing data, communications networks, and expertise. Russian rockets bring American astronauts to the International Space Station. When, in response to economic sanctions, the head of the Russian space agency said that maybe the American astronauts could get to the I.S.S. by trampoline, the comment was dismissed as posturing. Still, nasa has contracted with Boeing and SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket company, to begin taking astronauts to the I.S.S. this year—which means the U.S. will no longer rely on Russia for that. Russia and China say they will work together on a moon base. nasa used to collaborate with the China National Space Administration; in 2011, six months after members of nasa visited the C.N.S.A., Congress passed a bill that effectively prohibited collaboration. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ It’s natural to want to leave the moon undisturbed; it’s also clear that humanity will disturb it. But do we need to live there? Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, envisages zoning the moon for heavy industry, and Earth for light industry and residential purposes. Bezos’s company Blue Origin is developing reusable rockets intended to bring humans reliably back and forth from space, with the long-term goal of creating nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ It’s not difficult to imagine moon development, like all development, proceeding less than peacefully, and less than equitably. (At least, unlike with colonization on Earth, there are no natives whose land we’re taking, or so we assume.) Philip Metzger, a planetary physicist at the University of Central Florida, said, “I’m really glad that all these countries, all these companies, are going to the moon. But there will be problems.” Any country can withdraw from the Outer Space Treaty by giving a year’s notice. “If any country feels it has a sufficient lead in space, that is a motivation to withdraw from the treaty,” he said. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 44 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ “There’s the argument that we’ve destroyed the Earth and now we’re going to destroy the moon. But I don’t see it that way,” Metzger said. “The resources in space are billions of times greater than on Earth. Space pretty much erases everything we do. If you crush an asteroid to dust, the solar wind will blow it away. We can’t really mess up the solar system.” The most likely origin story for the moon is that it was formed four and a half billion years ago, after a Mars-size planet called Theia crashed into Earth. Theia broke into thousands of pieces, which orbited Earth. Slowly—or quickly, depending on your time scale—the shards coalesced and formed the moon we know today, the one that is drifting away from us, at a rate of four centimetres or so per year. If we had two moons, like Mars does, or sixty-two, like Saturn, we wouldn’t feel the same way about our moon. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨ Zou Xiaoduan, a scientist who worked on all phases of the Chang’e project, was born in 1983 in Guizhou province, in southwest China—“a very poor place back then,” she told me. As a child, she said, she “was stunned to learn that the moon was not a weird monster following me around.” She remembers hearing her family chatting about the Apollo missions. That men had been on the moon seemed unfathomable to her. She asked every adult to confirm it. She wanted to become an astronaut—a goal she attributes to there not being any Disney movies for her to watch. She began work on China’s lunar program in 2006. “I still recall the first lunar image from Chang’e-1 being shown to me,” she said, of the images sent home in 2007, during China’s first lunar orbital mission. “And the first time Chang’e-2 flew by an asteroid, 4179 Toutatis,” three years later. “No one had ever seen that asteroid.” Zou came to the U.S. in 2015, and now works for the Planetary Science Institute, in Tucson. She is part of a nasa mission studying the asteroid Bennu, which nasa describes as “an ancient relic of the solar system’s early days.” Like everyone else I spoke to who studies the moon, she loves her job. Of her work on the Chang’e missions, she said that every image has been “thrilling, every moment is a ‘wow.’ ” She continued, “I’m just so excited and super happy that I picked this career.” nhsdlc.cn ＳＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 45 manufacturing plants there, in zero gravity. Earth would be eased of its industrial burden, and the lower-gravity conditions would be beneficial for making certain goods, such as fibre-optic cables. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤ Nine Summers ago, I went for a visit. ＮＨＮＨ To see if the moon was green cheese. When we arrived, people on earth asked: “Is it?” ＬＣ We answered: “No cheese, no bees, no trees.” There were rocks and hills and a remarkable view ＳＤＬＣＳ Of the beautiful earth that you know. ＮＨＮＨ It’s a nice place to visit, and I’m certain that you ＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Will enjoy it when you get to go. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 46 The twelve men who walked on the moon, who saw Earth as a distant object—did they lose their illusions? A couple had alcohol problems, one co-founded the Institute of Noetic Sciences, and one became an evangelical preacher. One became a one-term Republican senator who has denied that humans are responsible for climate change; another became a painter, of the moon. Neil Armstrong was one of the few who had a mostly steady, unremarkable post-moonwalk life. He moved to a dairy farm and became a professor at the University of Cincinnati. Nearly a decade after his trip to the moon, he wrote a poem called “My Vacation”: nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ “Inventions we use every day that were actually created for space exploration” Josie Green, USA Today, July 8, 2019 ＬＣＣ Note from the NHSDLC: Many con teams may focus on the opportunity cost of space exploration. Each dollar that we spend on space is a dollar less for infrastructure, education, food, medicine, etc. Clever pro teams may want to frontline this by arguing that space exploration tech has benefits in our everyday lives. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬ Despite sending humans to Earth's orbit and the moon, the idea of humans surviving in outer space must seem like science fiction. Creating an environment that can sustain human life in the almost total absence of gravity, as well as no electrical outlets or oxygen, takes a lot of experimentation. That’s been the job of teams of dedicated scientists who have facilitated some of the most unforgettable moments in space exploration. ＬＣ 24/7 Tempo reviewed dozens of modern products that exist because of advancements in the field of space exploration. We compiled 30 common items that were invented for use in the race for space. ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＬＣＮＨ Unlike modern inventions we no longer use, these inventions are employed daily to save lives, improve environmental sustainability, and keep humans healthy. ＳＤＳＤ 1. Artificial limbs ＮＨＮＨ Innovations originally designed for space vehicles, including artificial muscle systems, robotic sensors, diamond-joint coatings, and temper foam, make artificial human limbs more functional, durable, comfortable and life-like. 2. Scratch-resistant lenses ＳＤＬＣ After NASA developed scratch-resistant astronaut helmets, the agency gave a license to Foster-Grant Corporation to continue experimenting with scratch-resistant plastics, which now comprise most sunglasses and prescription lenses. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 47 3.3.1 Space tech improves everyday life nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＬＣＣ Needing to monitor astronauts' vital signs in space, the Goddard Space Flight Center created monitoring systems that have been adapted to regulate blood sugar levels and release insulin as needed. ＮＨ 48 3. Insulin pump ＳＤ 4. Firefighting equipment ＬＣＮＨＮＨ The polymers created for use in space suits have been valuable in creating flameretardant, heat-resistant suits for firefighters. Newer suits also feature circulating coolant to keep firefighters from succumbing to heat and advanced breathing systems modeled after astronaut life support systems. ＳＤ Get the Coronavirus Watch newsletter in your inbox. ＮＨＳ Stay safe and informed with updates on the spread of the coronavirus ＮＨＬＣ Delivery: Varies Your Email ＬＣＬＣ 5. DustBusters ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ During the Apollo moon landings, NASA partnered with Black & Decker to invent various battery-powered tools for drilling and taking rock samples in space. This led to the creation of the ultra-light, compact, cordless DustBuster. 6. LASIK ＳＤＬＣ Technology used to track astronauts' eyes during periods in space in order to assess how humans' frames of reference are affected by weightlessness has become essential for use during LASIK surgery. The device tracks a patient's eye positions for the surgeon. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet nhsdlc.cn ＮＨ Shock absorbers designed to protect equipment during space shuttle launches are now used to protect bridges and buildings in areas prone to earthquakes. 8. Solar cells ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Out of a need to power space missions, NASA has invented, and consistently improved, photovoltaic cells, sharing the advancements with other companies to accelerate the technology. 9. Water filtration 10. Better tires ＮＨＮＨ After the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company invented the material used in NASA's Viking Lander parachute shrouds, the company began using it in its everyday radial tires. The material is stronger than steel and adds thousands of miles of life to the tires. ＬＣＬＣ 11. Wireless headsets ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Along with two airline pilots who'd invented a prototype of a wireless headset, NASA built a light, hands-free communication system that would allow astronauts to communicate with teams on Earth. The technology was utilized in the Mercury and Apollo missions. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ 12. Adjustable smoke detector nhsdlc.cn ＳＳＤＬＣ In the 1970s, NASA developed filtration systems that utilized iodine and cartridge filters to ensure that astronauts had access to safe, tasteless water. This filtering technology is now standard. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 49 7. Shock absorbers for buildings ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ 13. Invisible braces ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ After NASA and Ceradyne invented a clear material that could protect radar equipment without blocking the radar's signal, Unitek Corporation/3M teamed up with Ceradyne, using the material to invent invisible braces. ＮＨＮＨ 14. Freeze-dried foods ＬＣ During long space missions where every ounce of weight and inch of space aboard a shuttle must be maximized, freeze-dried foods have become a staple. Freeze-dried foods are incredibly light, and they retain their nutritional value. Once reconstituted, they are also easier and more pleasant to eat than former meal sources that were packed into squeeze tubes. ＮＨＮＨ 15. Camera phones ＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＬＣ In the 1990s, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory invented a light, miniature imaging system that required little energy in order to take high quality photographs from space. This technology has become standard in cell phone and computer cameras. ＳＤＳＤ 16. CAT scans ＮＨＮＨ NASA's digital signal technology, originally used to recreate images of the moon during the Apollo missions, is the underlying technology that makes CAT scans and MRIs possible. ＬＣ 17. Baby formula ＳＤ A nutritious, algae-based vegetable oil invented by NASA scientists who were searching for a recycling agent to use during long space missions is now an additive in many infant ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 50 In partnership with the Honeywell Corporation, NASA improved smoke detector technology in the 1970s, creating a unit with adjustable sensitivity to avoid constant false alarms. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ 18. Lifeshears ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ The pyrotechnic mechanism used to detach a space shuttle from its rocket boosters after launch is the same used in Lifeshears, but in a smaller scale. Lifeshears are a tool that can be used in emergency situations to cut into cars or collapsed buildings to rescue people trapped inside. 19. Grooved pavement ＮＨＳＳＤＬＣ The requirements for landing space shuttles led NASA scientists to do extensive research on minimizing hydroplaning – when vehicles slide uncontrollably on a wet surface – on runways. They discovered that cutting grooves into runways helps channel water away from the runway and significantly reduces accidents. Many highways and airports now have grooved pavement. ＮＨＬＣ 20. Air purifier ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ In the sealed, artificial environment of a spacecraft, attempts to grow plants have led to ethylene buildup. NASA invented an air purifier for the International Space Station that is now used widely on Earth – everywhere from restaurants, to hospitals, to refrigerators – to remove ethylene, which hastens decay, as well as other particulates and pathogens. ＮＨ 21. Memory foam ＳＤ 22. Workout machines ＬＣ Memory foam was originally invented as a pad for astronaut seats that would mold to their bodies during the high forces of takeoff and landing, then return to a neutral state. This eliminated the need to customize seats to individual astronauts' body sizes. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 51 formulas. It contains two essential fatty acids that cannot be synthesized by the human body. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ 23. Home insulation ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ NASA began experimenting with insulation technology for the Apollo space crafts and suits, leading to the invention of common construction insulation. ＮＨＮＨ 24. Infrared ear thermometers ＮＨ Ice is a real threat for shuttles in space, and NASA has devised multiple electronic solutions to prevent ice formation on spacecrafts, some of which are now used on commercial aircraft. ＬＣＬＣ 26. Portable computer ＮＨＳＤ 25. Ice-resistant airplanes ＳＬＣ Infrared ear thermometers, which allow for instant temperature capture without the risk of picking up pathogens and causing cross-infection, utilize the same technology developed for assessing the temperature of distant planets. ＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ The first portable computer, the Grid Compass, was used on multiple shuttle missions in the 1980s. Nicknamed SPOC (Shuttle Portable On-Board Computer), the computer could communicate with onboard devices and was used to launch satellites off space shuttles. 27. LEDs ＳＤＬＣ Intended for use to help in growing plants aboard space shuttles, NASA's LED technology has been utilized in the development of LED medical devices that relax muscles and relieve pain in soldiers, cancer patients, and those with Parkinson's disease. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 52 Because prolonged exposure to zero-gravity leads to bone loss and muscle atrophy, NASA created workout machines to enable astronauts to maintain physical fitness while in space. nhsdlc.cn ＮＨ 53 ＮＨ 28. 3D food printing ＳＤＬＬＣＣ The ability to cook food on long space missions is no longer impossible with the invention of 3D food printers. This technology is now being refined for commercial use for the production of chocolates and other confections as well as to create nutritious foods for diabetics and others with specific dietary needs. ＳＤ 29. Computer mouse ＮＨＮＨ While searching for a way to increase interaction with onboard computers and allow users to perform tasks like manipulate data, NASA and Stanford researchers developed the first mouse. ＬＣ 30. Athletic shoes ＮＨＳＳＤ A shock-absorbent rubber molding designed for astronauts' helmets inspired what is now a common feature in the soles of modern athletic shoes. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet nhsdlc.cn 3.3.2 Technology spillover, continued ＮＨ “’Blankets’ designed for spacecraft keep refugees warm” Moni Basu, CNN, August 30, 2016 Note from the NHSDLC: This article provides a more human perspective on how space tech can benefit people on earth, as opposed to the laundry list of technology in the USA Today article. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ They appear after shark attacks, marathons, earthquakes and even terrorist attacks like the one in Paris last year. And they have appeared en masse most recently in images of migrants and refugees attempting deadly crossings of the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ They look that way for a reason. They’re flyweight, plastic sheets layered with an infrared coating of vaporized aluminum that make them super reflective so they can effectively shield a person from cold temperatures and brisk winds and help retain body heat. ＬＣＬＣ But why are they called space blankets? They actually do have an interstellar connection. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ NASA used the same shiny insulation material to protect many of its Earth-made crafts from the much harsher environment of space. It was first used as a parasol-type shield to keep Skylab from overheating after the spacecraft lost a heat shield during launch, according to NASA. “Thermal blankets are to spacecraft as clothes are to people,” Mike Weiss, the technical deputy program manager for the Hubble telescope, once said. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ They have been used as emergency first aid: to warm marathon runners who experience a rapid cool-down after the finish line and shark attack victims who have lost a lot of nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣ They are commonly called space blankets and they look like sheets of foil, silver on one side and gold on the other. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 54 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＬＣＣ Hospitals use them to keep both medical staff and patients warm in the chilled environments of operating theaters. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬ And they are commonly seen after natural disasters, including the massive 2005 earthquake that devastated Himalayan villages and towns in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan. More than 150,000 space blankets were shipped to shivering victims. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ In July, I was onboard the Topaz Responder, a ship chartered by the Migrant Offshore Aid Station, which rescues migrants in the Mediterranean. As the sun went down, the 366 migrants who were rescued that day covered themselves in space blankets to shield their bodies from the breeze that felt nippy without much clothing or bedding. ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ It was an eerie sight, I thought. I could see nothing but a sea of foil, glittering under the lights of the ship. It looked like the entire deck was covered with Reynolds Wrap. Later, when the migrants were dropped off in Italy, many got creative with the blankets, using them as head wraps and shawls. ＮＨ For $400, a dinghy and danger: A tale of a desperate day at sea ＮＨＳＤＬＣ There have been so many space blankets that have washed ashore or been left behind near camps that several artists have made photographs, sculptures and even performance installations with the shiny stuff. nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣ In the European migrant crisis, the space blankets have been life-saving, especially for people who made the sea crossing in the winter, when air temperatures were below zero and the water frigid enough to cause death by hypothermia. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 55 blood. Mountaineers and campers use them frequently; you can get one at outdoor outfitters like REI for $3.95. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ The blankets were part of an art installation during a June Refugee Week celebration in the English city of Leicester. The silver and gold sheets, turned into flags flown from makeshift posts at a central square, were intended as a welcoming symbol. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ “These are moments of hope as well as failure; moments when, properly utilized, technological progress enables us to achieve something which was beyond our capabilities before. And yet: we are still pulling bodies from the water wrapped in material which was meant to send us into space.” nhsdlc.cn ＮＨＮＨＳＤ “A single technology … its consecutive and multiple appearances at times of stress and trial: at the dawn of the space age, in orbit and on other planets, at the scene of athletic feats of endurance, in defense and offense in the mountains of the Hindu Kush, on the beaches of the European archipelago. ＳＬＣＮＨ The Leicester installation was partly inspired by artist James Bridle who set up a a solitary space blanket in Ellinikon, Greece, in January. He named it “A Flag for No Nations.” Here’s what Bridle wrote on his blog: ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 56 Artist Cristina Ghinassi’s performance in Istanbul this year aimed “to explore the possible meanings of the protectiveness and the reflection given by the space blankets covering the bodies of migrants. Through the heat-reflective blankets, (the) artist uses her presence and body as a mirror to create a possible connection between her, the migrants and the audience.” ＮＨ 4.1 A space race leads to more dangerous military technology and risks military conflict ＬＣＣ “Wargaming the China-US Space Race: Insights from Mark Hilborn” Mercy Kuo interviewing Dr. Mark Hilbourne, a lecturer athe the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, The Diplomat, June 7, 2021 (https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/wargaming-the-china-us-space-race/) ＳＤＳＤＬ Explain the military applications of China’s recent space developments. ＮＨ Due to the inherent dual-use nature of space technology, developments in this field can be difficult to pinpoint. China will aim to use space for military purposes in the same way that Western states use it: for intelligence, targeting, navigation, command, control, and communications (C3I), operating UAVs, and possibly in the future missile warning. China is also developing its counterspace capabilities to deny the use of space to adversaries and has carried out anti-satellite missile tests and is suspected of satellite jamming and “spoofing” (manipulating the data from a satellite) in the past. For instance, in 2014 China is thought to have interfered with the U.S. NOAA satellite system, taking that system’s data dissemination offline. There are also reports of GPS signal interference in coastal areas of China and in the South China Sea. In 2020 China also briefly flew a spaceplane which is thought to resemble – both in form and in function – the U.S. X-37B. This would offer a maneuverable and flexible space asset that would be capable of carrying out a wide variety of tasks. While these capabilities will be of benefit to China’s military, they may also be used to establish or enhance relationships with foreign states that currently lack access to space or space enabled military systems, enabling them to undermine Western goals and reduce dependence on U.S. systems. ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＮＨ Analyze the role of China’s civil-military fusion in space technology. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy is a state-led, state-directed program to leverage the levers of military and commercial programs and expertise to strengthen both the military, the economy, and scientific development. It represents a much deeper and more formalized integration than, for instance, the U.S. In 2017 Xi Jinping stated to the Central Commission for Military-Civil Fusion Development (CCMCFD): “We must nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 57 4. Con Arguments ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Toward the stated goal of becoming a space great power, a deputy director of the CCMCFD expressed a desire for MCF efforts to support both the coordinated development of space exploration and exploitation programs and air and space defense capabilities. To this end, there are a number of space MCF megaprojects: the Long March 9 heavy launch vehicle , the spacecraft on-orbit service and maintenance system, the space-Earth integrated information network megaproject, and the next-generation space infrastructure. ＮＨ Compare and contrast China’s BeiDou satellite system to the U.S. GPS, EU Galileo, and Russian GLONASS. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Broadly speaking, it is very similar to other GNSS systems. It provides accurate positioning and timing for a number of functions, military and civilian alike, and its accuracy is broadly comparable to competing systems currently. The encrypted military signal offers greater accuracy than the unencrypted civilian system. Chinese officials have noted the size of the GPS enabled-economy that the U.S. GPS system has given rise to, despite its military origins, and will seek to emulate this. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Unlike other GNSS systems, BeiDou is a two-way communication system. This allows it to identify the locations of receivers. BeiDou-compatible devices can transmit data back to the satellites, in messages of up to 1,200 Chinese characters (for instance distress or SOS messages). This raises concerns that the system can track users with compatible devices. Other GNSS systems are essentially beacons without that communication facility. nhsdlc.cn ＳＳＤＬＣ Also relevant here will be the areas of big data analytics and machine learning also the subject of MCF programs that will aid the synthesizing of the vast data collected from space assets. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 58 accelerate the formation of a full-element, multi-domain, and high-return military-civil fusion deep development pattern, and gradually build up China’s unified military-civil system of strategies and strategic capability.” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ The most likely scenario where any conflict in space may occur would reflect the tensions on Earth – it is unlikely that a war that begins and ends in space would occur without that wider tension. Where that tension does exist, and thus conflict could occur, would be flare-ups over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or over other disputes over territory involving Japan or India. ＮＨ It needs to be remembered that as space assets are tightly interconnected with critical strategic military functions, and in particular those of the U.S. are often tasked with nuclear and high-level conventional command and control, an attack on a nation’s space assets would be highly escalatory. Given the nuclear “entanglement” factor, what is assumed to be an attack for operational or tactical advantage may be read as a preliminary step to a nuclear strike, and risks tipping any conflict into a much more serious one. Even an attack on a ground station could generate the same risks – possibly even more so, as such attacks would be on sovereign territory. Countries with high investment in and reliance on space would be most reluctant to see any form of a “shooting war” in space – more likely are the more subtle attacks that involve jamming, spoofing, or manipulating the satellites and their signals. ＮＨＬＣＬＣ Assess the high stakes of space security vis-à-vis the China-U.S. tech race in space. ＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Space has now become absolutely fundamental to many key aspects of modern life. The internet, banking, the stock market, electricity power grids to name but a few – not to mention the vast majority of military functions – all rely on space-based infrastructure and data. Critically important is the Position, Navigation and Timing signal (PNT) from GNSS systems. Denial of this service could have catastrophic effects for a nation. Thus, the security implications extend from military aspects though to the functioning of society as a whole. ＮＨＳＤ Technological competition will enable the leader to gain or maintain a security advantage in space, in the form of military dominance and/or economic leadership. In nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 59 What are the most probable scenarios of a China-U.S. space war? ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 60 the case of China, these advantages could extend to establishing or enhancing relationships with foreign states as noted above, leading to increasing alliances and potentially using the resulting leverage to influence international governance of space. In addition, technological “firsts” will generate triumphs of prestige, as they did in the Cold War – important symbols of scientific and societal prowess. It can be argued that space is the only field in which all these aspects are so clearly identifiable. nhsdlc.cn 4.2 Space exploration should be the purview of international cooperation, not individual nation-states. Cooperation provides substantially more benefits without risking so many harms ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣ Note from the NHSDLC: The CSIS (Center for International Studies) publishes research about international policy issues. While this report is older, the points and concerns in it matter now more than ever. The authors layout an alternative to competitive space exploration and the benefits of nations working together as opposed to in competition for prestige. Introduction ＬＣＳＤＬＣＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ International cooperation must be an integral part of the way in which the United States, and all space-faring powers, approach space exploration. Management of this cooperation up-front can have high payoffs in terms of both political and programmatic sustainability, diplomatic benefits, and ultimately, the development of free-market forces in space. ＮＨＳＤ The first step toward making the most of international cooperation in space exploration is the completion and utilization of the ISS. nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ International cooperation in space exploration has the potential to provide significant benefits to all participants, particularly if managed well. Benefits in the form of monetary efficiency, programmatic and political sustainability, and workforce stability will accrue to those partners who choose to approach space exploration as a mutually beneficial endeavor. Furthermore, international cooperation must be explicitly incorporated as an aspect, and goal, of a modern space exploration program to enable coordination prior to the construction of new hardware. Such coordination can happen on both the government and industry levels and allows for advance planning and standardization that can enhance the strategic use of redundancy through interoperability. Finally, the promotion of a set of industrial standards for cooperation in space exploration will enable the exercise of leadership in future stages of the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE). If the vision is to succeed, the United States, in particular, must engage its partners by reaffirming and strengthening its commitment to the International Space Station (ISS) to maintain its diplomatic credibility for future exploration endeavors. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＣＮＨ “The Case for Managed International Cooperation in Space Exploration” DA Broniatowski, G. Ryan Faith, and Vincent G. Sabathier, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2006 (https://web.mit.edu/adamross/www/BRONIATOWSKI_ISU07.pdf) ＮＨ 61 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＳＤＮＨＮＨ Rather, space exploration is an activity that delivers immediate value in noneconomic areas, while allowing for longer-term practical and economic benefits. As will be demonstrated below, each of these benefits can be strengthened through correctly managed international cooperation. ＳＤＬＣ Reason #1: International Cooperation Saves Money ＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ The case for international cooperation varies between nations, depending on their needs. For example, most nations lack the budgetary resources to carry out their space exploration goals alone. As such, international cooperation is a must for these nations. The United States, on the other hand, nominally possesses the budgetary resources to carry out the VSE but is under a presidential directive to engage in international cooperation for diplomatic reasons. If cooperation between nations is to be successful, each nation must have an incentive to cooperate (i.e., each nation must derive positive utility from the partnership). The remainder of this section presents four reasons why nations might choose to cooperate in space exploration. As such, international cooperation can occur where these nations possess complementary needs. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨ It is common knowledge that international cooperation in space exploration has the potential to reduce a partner’s costs by spreading the burden to other nations. Although additional overhead costs increase the overall cost of any international cooperative endeavor, these costs are spread among partners. As per-partner cost decreases, perpartner utility increases. Space exploration has proven to be an expensive activity. Indeed, the more that any given administration and Congress must spend to maintain and/or expand the functionality of a program like the ISS, the less utility will be derived. Therefore, a nation will have an incentive to engage in international cooperation when doing so can reduce that nation’s costs. This is particularly true for nations whose space nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣ Why Do Nations Choose to Cooperate in Space Exploration? ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 62 The ISS program is not complete. Therefore, the program’s utility has not yet been fully realized. To the extent that a completed ISS is beneficial, the program will deliver positive utility. Nevertheless, for each passing year that these benefits are delayed, their perceived probability of delivering value is decreased, concomitantly decreasing their expected utility. Given that the ISS program is significantly over budget, 10 years behind schedule, and far from complete, we may expect that the practical benefits of ISS utilization may not be a major factor in current utility calculations. Similarly, many space exploration endeavors promise practical benefits that can only be delivered on time scales that are significantly longer than what is required to make an adequate business case. As such, we may assume that the purely economic benefits of space exploration are not the primary driver for exploration in the short term. ＮＨ exploration budget is insufficient to execute their space exploration goals. Aside from the United States, and possibly China, international cooperation is necessary for all other space-faring nations simply due to the large costs involved. Reason #2: International Cooperation Generates Diplomatic Prestige ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ The ISS program, along with most international civil space endeavors, carries with it an element of diplomatic cachet and control. The participation of other nations in the program increases the diplomatic influence of participating nations and, therefore, the diplomatic utility derived from cooperation. In general, the more countries participate, the higher will be the utility. Nevertheless, not all countries are equal, and their individual utility value depends on world politics. For example, the utility of having Russia join the ISS program increased significantly after the breakup of the Soviet Union, when relations with a new Russia were at the forefront of United States foreign policy. To the extent that a symbol of cooperation with a given nation is valuable, utility will be delivered. As such, Indian participation in joint space exploration would send a strong signal to the world of good U.S.-Indian relations. This would simultaneously increase Indian prestige by demonstrating their technological prowess. Similarly, Chinese participation in joint space exploration would signal growing cooperation between the two nations. The use of the ISS for a partnership between either of these nations would drastically increase its utility to those who support friendly relations. On the other hand, those who oppose closer U.S. relations with India or China are likely to oppose their entrance into the ISS program or into any other joint space exploration program. These diplomatic incentives may come at a cost for the cooperating nations; for example, China would likely have to make concessions in the form of more stringent technology export controls and/or better observance of human rights standards. If space exploration is successfully used as a diplomatic tool to exert such “soft power,” its utility increases in proportion to the degree that it is successful in implementing a policymaker’s agenda. Similarly, the departure of a particular nation (or, if the United States chooses to cease participating, of all nations) will reduce U.S. utility to the extent that the aggregate symbol of cooperation is valued. ＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＮＨ Reason #3: International Cooperation Increases Political Sustainability ＮＨＳＤＬＣ International cooperation is valuable to a given nation in that it tends to increase political sustainability. Within the United States, a program is made safer from cancellation to the extent that Congress and the administration are not willing to break international agreements. Indeed, the integration of Russia into the ISS program may well have saved the program from cancellation (consider that the year before Russia was introduced as a partner, the ISS was saved by one vote in Congress). Once cooperation has commenced, canceling a program becomes inconsistent with political nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 63 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ 64 ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＮＨＬＣＬＣ Such a mutual decision would be significantly more tenable, in a diplomatic sense, because each party might outline a set of grievances and conditions for the termination of cooperation. Furthermore, since the agreement would be terminated in a spirit of mutual understanding, the possibility of future beneficial cooperation would be more likely. ＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ If the ISS were unilaterally terminated, the result would be a blow to the credibility of the United States, concomitant with the loss of trust of the foreign partners. A U.S. withdrawal could send the message that the purpose of the program is simply to divert resources from other nations’ space goals in order to prevent competition. This, in turn, would have a profoundly negative effect on any future U.S. leadership in space exploration. If possible, international cooperation must be terminated in such a way as to avoid portraying the terminating nation’s actions as unreliable, disrespectful, or malicious. As such, if the ISS is to be terminated, such a termination should be phrased as a joint decision made among all partners, in such a way as to leave open the possibility of future cooperation. nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤ sustainability as long as the utility cost associated with the loss of diplomatic benefits and the negative effects on reputation of terminating an international agreement is larger in magnitude than the utility cost that must be paid to maintain the system. In the case of the ISS, international cooperation does provide a rationale for sustaining the program, because canceling the program would result in a net loss in utility. The corollary to this is that there is a high cost to be paid by any nation that chooses to unilaterally withdraw from an existing cooperative endeavor. This cost comes in the form of damage to the departing nation’s reputation or credibility. In general, any unilateral action sends a signal that the actor is an unpredictable and therefore an unreliable and possibly disrespectful partner. This tends to sabotage the possibility of future cooperation. As such, there is a long-term benefit to maintaining cooperation, even when the immediate cost may seem to call for terminating it. If cooperation has never occurred (as is the case between China and the United States), the advent of cooperation is a significant event, likely delivering a lot of diplomatic utility. On the other hand, if cooperation is the norm (as is the case between Canada and the United States), it is to be expected. The diplomatic utility of maintaining this cooperation is often not recognized. Nevertheless, the diplomatic utility cost of terminating this cooperation is large, because it would alienate a key ally. If it were necessary to cease cooperation, a mutual choice to do so would likely mitigate many of the negative reputation effects, because there would be no unilateral actor to whom one could assign blame. Indeed, if both parties choose to cease cooperating simultaneously, this would mitigate the negative-reputation effect—rather, there would be a “mutual divorce.” ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ Reason #4: International Cooperation Enables Workforce Stability ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ One way politicians measure the benefit of a large program is in terms of the number of jobs and amount of revenue brought to their constituency. As such, the politician’s perception of change in these sorts of benefits is of the utmost importance. For example, both the Space Shuttle and ISS programs employ workers across the country and serve as a source of revenue to the districts of many members of Congress. The program also employs enough people to attract the attention of the president. The loss of these jobs and revenue streams would constitute a large loss in utility for both the administration and Congress; nevertheless, the aerospace industry must continually engage in advocacy activities to ensure that politicians are made aware of this fact. Similarly, simply continuing a program is unlikely to increase its utility for any of the stakeholders, because the jobs and revenue streams already exist. It is only when these benefits are put under threat that political salience is achieved. As such, if either the Space Shuttle or ISS programs were to grow to employ more people, an increase in the perceived utility lost in the event of a cancellation of the program would only result if the growth were significant enough to attract political attention. This is different from an expected utility gain; a proposal to grow the program prior to its execution is unlikely to increase utility as much, because future employees will not engage in advocacy to keep jobs that do not currently exist. This means that established programs are more sustainable than are programs that have not yet begun. In addition, the incumbent advantage means that members of Congress are generally satisfied with the status quo. If it should happen that a program is approved and seems likely to be implemented in a particular district, individual members of Congress may lend their support in the expectation that they will gain utility. Thus, positive utility for programmatic expansion only exists when a supporting coalition may be identified. As such, additional employment does not strictly deliver positive utility; rather it can increase the perception of utility loss in the event of program cancellation. Similarly, once jobs are lost and utility is decreased, there is no additional positive utility to be gained from reinstating those jobs. Rather, the threat of the loss of utility inherent in the loss of employment can only serve as a deterrent. Such employment programs therefore act in a manner similar to an addiction, wherein the removal of employees causes “withdrawal symptoms” manifested as a loss of utility. Nevertheless, when the metaphoric addict becomes accustomed to the additional employment, the prospect of a marginal increase does not increase utility. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣ On first analysis, international cooperation might seem to decrease employment in the United States, because foreign nations are building components that might otherwise be constructed in the United States. In practice, those who are employed may see more nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 65 Recommendation #1: The ISS should not be unilaterally terminated ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ How Should Cooperation Proceed? ＳＤＬＬＣＣ Given that international cooperation can provide positive utility to participating nations, we must examine how best to cooperate to ensure that each participant is maximizing the utility obtained through cooperation in space exploration. ＳＤ The following section presents recommendations for new cooperative modalities. ＮＨＮＨ The Critical-Path Problem International cooperation inserts an element of programmatic dependence into the architecture of a system, requiring that all partners deliver what they promised on time and within the agreed-on parameters. These concerns give rise to ＬＣＳＤＬＣＮＨＳＤＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨ nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ the dictum that international cooperation is best for a nation when its partners are not on the system’s “critical path” (i.e., the nation’s partners’ contributions are not required to complete the system; instead, they merely present an additional noncritical capability). For example, the ISS has two partners on the “critical path” for crew transport and station resupply—the United States and Russia. Other nations, such as European Space Agency (ESA) member states and Japan, currently provide modules whose absence would not prohibit the station as a whole from functioning. This approach would suggest that, from a programmatic standpoint, there is little incentive to cooperate with a nation that cannot contribute a unique capability or that is not able to provide an existing capability at a lower cost than can be domestically produced. For example, a programmatic basis for cooperation between the United States and Japan is that the Japanese Kibo module is provided to the United States for free on a noexchange-of-funds basis. In return, the United States is flying the module and attaching it to the ISS. This paradigm removes strong incentives for nations to collaborate since the noncritical-path nation (e.g., Japan) depends entirely on the goodwill of the criticalpath nation (e.g., the United States). On the other hand, the critical-path nation (the United States) may operate independently and therefore view cooperation under this paradigm as providing extraneous benefits that, although desirable, can be dispensed with in an emergency. As such, the benefits of maintaining the critical path within the purview of one nation are clear—by preventing multiple participants from participating in this area of the architecture, coordination costs are reduced. A nation will not be “held hostage” by the policy, schedule, or budgetary difficulties of its partners. Too ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 66 stability in their jobs due to the twin utility losses associated with employment termination and diplomatic prestige loss. In effect, employment has no impact on utility unless it changes. The stability provided by international cooperation will ensure that the associated utility is at least less likely to decrease. ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣＮＨ Nevertheless, there are diplomatic drawbacks to insisting on sole control of the critical path. By restricting international partners to noncritical-path items, a nation is sending a signal indicating a lack of trust and confidence in the partner’s capabilities and unwillingness to rely on that partner. Rather than committing to work through problems, the nation is hedging bets in case the partner “fails.” This sort of partnering is, in effect, not truly cooperative, because the requirement that one nation possess all of the critical-path capabilities is an implicit statement that such a nation can complete the system under its own power and therefore does not need its partners. As such, there is no true programmatic incentive for the cooperation to happen. From a practical standpoint, this structure endows the nation that maintains the critical path with all of the decisionmaking power, thereby making the partner nations utterly dependent and essentially irrelevant. For example, a decision by the United States to cancel the ISS program could not be credibly opposed by the other partner nations. Although these partner nations may choose to participate for nonprogrammatic reasons, such as economic and diplomatic incentives, there is no programmatic reason for them to do so. Similarly, the argument that international cooperation reduces cost must also be seen within the context of the critical path. A partner who provides a component that is off the critical path is not genuinely reducing the cost for the integrator nation. On the other hand, such cooperation does not negatively affect the employment associated with the space exploration system. Instead, this nation is providing a capability that is, by definition, unnecessary to the minimal operation of the system. It is an extraneous capability. For example, the United States is not saving money by cooperating with ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Japan and the EU; rather, it is receiving a capability that it would not have had otherwise. This form of cooperation therefore creates a natural hierarchy of partner nations among those who have the most control of the critical path; the most de facto decisionmaking power; and those who provide the extraneous capabilities but have little in the way of programmatic utility and contribute little in the form of decisionmaking. ＮＨＮＨ It is unlikely that the noncritical-path partner nations, having experienced dependence during the ISS program, will be eager to leave the future of their space programs in the hands of a foreign power. How, then, can cooperation occur in such a way as to maximize the value of each partner’s contribution without needlessly driving up coordination costs? ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Given concerns regarding the outsourcing of U.S. jobs, the optimal way to allocate sections of the ISS, or other international cooperative endeavors, to foreign nations would be to choose elements that cannot be built in the United States or do not otherwise displace a large number of U.S. citizens, such that the political benefits do not nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 67 many cooks spoil the broth. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ 68 ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＮＨ Recommendation #2: International cooperation should create critical-path redundancy ＬＣＬＣ The Case for Interoperability ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Designing for programmatic redundancy provides a strong argument for interoperability between nations’ space exploration assets, as this would allow nations to substitute each other’s critical capabilities with relative ease. It is nevertheless a stated goal of the United States to exercise leadership in space exploration. How may it do so without alienating its partners? ＮＨＳＤＬＣ International cooperation is often visualized as a big-government-to-big-government endeavor, requiring high-level diplomatic contacts and an associated overhead cost. Indeed, the ISS was the archetype of this modality. Although, in its implementing agreement, Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) were signed between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and corresponding national space agencies in Russia and the European Union, NASA signed an MOU directly with the Government of Japan. This type of cooperation creates programmatic risk for each nation involved. In nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤ conflict with the interest of the U.S. worker. In a project as large as the ISS, the marginal benefit of building an additional module in the United States, for example, is small, particularly if no supporting coalition may be identified that would advocate for its construction. If the module is built in an underserved district (i.e., one that has a number of unemployed skilled workers who are able to complete the task), the representatives from that district are likely to undertake advocacy, increasing the utility of keeping the module in that district. International cooperation aimed at promoting programmatic redundancy avoids adverse effects on domestic employment. A probable view of the role of international cooperation can be informative. For example, following the loss of the shuttle Columbia, the ISS program was only able to survive because of the transportation provided by the Russian Soyuz craft. Without this capability, the ISS program would have failed in the wake of the shuttle’s stand-down. We may conclude, from this example, that international cooperation can provide a strong benefit in the form of programmatic redundancy. In particular, this redundancy should be provided in critical-path capabilities. In this way, no nation is entirely reliant on any other nation, because the critical path lies entirely within one nation. At the same, in the event of a critical subsystem failure, the presence of these redundant backups will ensure the survival of the system. One may even argue that programmatic redundancy can reduce per-partner cost by creating a higher net reliability that would otherwise impose a heavy cost burden on one nation. Finally, if one nation’s system fails, other nations can temporarily move in to fill the gap in capability, thereby preventing a potentially debilitating hiatus in the human spaceflight activities of that nation. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ International Cooperation through Industry ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ International cooperation does not always require the explicit involvement of direct government-to-government interaction. Instead, industry liaisons that are regulated by their respective governments can also occur. For example, the U.S. Atlas V rocket uses Russian-derived technology for its engines. Such cooperation allows for great flexibility as the governments can explicitly recognize it, creating an element of diplomatic cachet, or can ignore it, as is the case with the Atlas rockets, allowing for the best market advantage due to the incorporation of potentially superior foreign technology. Industrial international cooperation could potentially be a convenient method of creating programmatic redundancy by allowing the prime contractor responsible for the critical path to fund the construction of a redundant backup that is interoperable by design. This interoperability allows entrepreneurs the flexibility to “mix and match” the components from many national industries in such a way as to sell commercial services in a more efficient manner. ＮＨ Leadership through Standardization ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤ Similarly, many types of collaboration between the government and the private sector (i.e., public-private partnerships) can be treated in a manner analogous to international cooperation, particularly in the case of creating criticalpath redundancy. Interoperability on an industry-to-industry, rather than a government-to-government, basis would allow international cooperation and collaboration to develop with market mechanisms. This removes some of the diplomatic uncertainty from international cooperation, as it essentially allows for an exchange of funds at a set market rate. In effect, money would be infused into the system, moving international cooperation from strictly a barter activity to either a market or barter activity. Conversely, the diplomatic cachet inherent in cooperative activities, along with the consequent penalty for withdrawal, would be reduced if it were not explicitly sanctioned by the governments involved. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ Given the U.S. position as the de facto superpower in space, the United States is currently in a position to develop a space exploration architecture whose legacy components will create a “lock-in” effect for decades to come. More generally, for any nation that commits to space exploration, this “lock-in” will occur regardless of which architecture is constructed. The utmost care must be taken to ensure that what is “locked-in” is something that participants can live with for decades to come. Given the nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 69 particular, all other nations are dependent on the critical-path nation. Although this allows the critical-path nation to assume the role of “leader,” there is little incentive for the other participating nations to engage in this sort of cooperation again. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ The United States, or any other nation or group of nations, can exercise leadership in international industrial cooperation in space exploration by defining standard interfaces between the space exploration systems of the major spacefaring nations. Rather than envisioning the architecture of the space exploration system as a series of “forms”— objects to be built (e.g., a space shuttle, an Apollo capsule, or a heavy-lift launcher)—the architecture should be a set of interface specifications designed to maximize flexibility. Once these interface specifications have been defined, any participant who wants to engage in space exploration with the leading nation would be required to adhere to these standards. As such, the originators of the standards-creation process would be in a position of de facto leadership. The standards documentation would be released to those partners with whom these nations wish to cooperate, thereby enabling cooperation without overtly risking national security objectives through the uncontrolled transfer of technological information. The corollary to this is that those nations who choose not to abide by the standards of the leading nations will find themselves becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage. Up-front coordination can be a prudent measure to avoid the creation of competing standards. Focusing on interfaces rather than on objects also allows national space agencies to dictate “functions” rather than forms. For example, instead of procuring a heavy-lift launcher, an agency like NASA would procure the ability to send a certain amount of mass to orbit in one contiguous piece. This scheme has twofold benefits. First, it allows for innovative new solutions that will be evaluated, not based on adherence to a preconceived solution, but on sheer effectiveness in meeting the goal at hand. Requiring a body, such as NASA, to think explicitly in terms of functions rather than forms forces this body to define its goals clearly rather than allowing it to prematurely focus on tools. This has the added benefit of decreasing the likelihood that goals will change, as an explicit goal may only be formed with a supporting coalition that is likely to be willing to advocate for it. Finally, in the event that goals or priorities change, the standard remains adaptable and the architecture does not need to be redefined. Rather, new components may be added or removed in a modular fashion. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＬＣ Recommendation #3: The primary space-faring nations should exercise leadership through the creation of standards for interoperability in space exploration ＮＨＳＤ Conclusion nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 70 extreme uncertainty surrounding budgetary and policy environments of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), over the long time spans implied by the VSE, design for flexibility must be the rule. ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＣＮＨＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 71 International cooperation in space exploration has the potential to provide significant benefits to all participants, particularly if managed well. Benefits in the form of monetary efficiency, programmatic and political sustainability, and workforce stability will accrue to those partners who choose to approach space exploration as a mutually beneficial endeavor. Furthermore, international cooperation must be explicitly incorporated as an aspect, and goal, of a modern space exploration program to enable coordination prior to the construction of new hardware. Such coordination can happen on both the government and industry levels and allows for advance planning and standardization that can enhance interoperability through the strategic use of redundancy. Finally, the promotion of a set of industrial standards for cooperation in space exploration will enable the exercise of leadership in future stages of the VSE. If the Vision for Space Exploration is to succeed, the United States, in particular, must engage its partners by reaffirming and strengthening its commitment to the International Space Station to maintain its diplomatic credibility for future exploration endeavors. nhsdlc.cn ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨ “Before we colonise Mars, let’s look to our problems on Earth” Dr. Andrew Glikson, visiting fellow of Archeology and Anthropology at the Australian National University, The Conversation, December 27, 2017 ＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Note from the NHSDLC: Debate introduced many of us to a plethora of harms facing us on Earth. In this article Dr Glikson lays out the extreme cost of a space race (specifically Mars colonization) and highlights that going to one uninhabitable planet may leave us with another. ＮＨＮＨ Everyone wants to go to Mars, or so it seems. ＮＨＮＨＳＤ But at what cost? And could we even survive any long-term colonisation on Mars? Given the problems we face here on Earth it’s important to ask whether we should be better tasked with looking after the only planet we know (so far) that can harbour life. The race to Mars ＬＣＬＣ Boeing says it wants to be involved in the first mission to send humans to the red planet. The company’s chief executive Dennis Muilenburg told a US TV host in December 2017: ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ I firmly believe the first person that sets foot on Mars will get there on a Boeing rocket. ＬＣ A key rival is Musk, the billionaire founder of SpaceX, which is already launching rockets. At the 68th Annual International Aeronautics Congress, in Adelaide in September 2017, Musk spoke of airline-like connections between Earth and Mars, with cargo missions to begin by 2022. ＮＨＳＤ Lockheed Martin says it plans to send humans to Mars in the next decade. nhsdlc.cn ＳＬＣ Elon Musk, NASA with Lockheed Martin, and now Boeing are all looking towards the red planet, with heady predictions of missions during the 2020s. ＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 72 4.3 A space race takes money that should be spent solving existential crisis’ on Earth ＮＨ Even the famous theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking has argued that it is “essential that we colonise space” although he doesn’t see it happening that soon: ＳＤＬＬＣＣ I believe that we will eventually establish self-sustaining colonies on Mars and other bodies in the Solar system although probably not within the next 100 years. ＳＤ Exploring other planets ＮＨＮＨ Scientific exploration of Solar system planets constitutes one of the most exciting achievements the human race is realising. Microbial life may exist on Mars or may have existed in the past. According to NASA: ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣ Among our discoveries about Mars, one stands out above all others: the possible presence of liquid water, either in its ancient past or preserved in the subsurface today. Water is key because almost everywhere we find water on Earth, we find life. If Mars once had liquid water, or still does today, it’s compelling to ask whether any microscopic life forms could have developed on its surface. ＮＨＳＤＬＣ But doubts have been raised recently with regard to the distinction between water and sand flow on Mars. No atmosphere for life nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ But by contrast, the idea of colonising Mars or other planets or moons is misleading. It yields an impression in many people’s mind that an alternative exists to Earth, a unique (so far) haven of life in the Solar system, currently suffering from global warming, rising oceans, extreme weather events, mass extinction of species and growing risk of nuclear wars. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 73 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＬＣＣ Its thin atmosphere is less than 1% of Earth’s, consisting of 96% carbon dioxide, 1.9% nitrogen, 1.9% argon and trace amounts of oxygen and carbon monoxide. It provides little protection from the Sun’s radiation, nor does it allow retention of heat at the surface. ＮＨＮＨ Suggestions as to whether biological-like textures in a Martian meteorite (ALH84001) signify ancient fossils have not been confirmed. ＮＨＮＨ In July 2017 researchers reported that the surface of Mars may be more toxic to microorganisms than previously thought. ＳＬＣ This high-resolution scanning electron microscope image shows an unusual tube-like structural form that is less than 1/100th the width of a human hair in size found in meteorite ALH84001, a meteorite believed to be of Martian origin. NASA ＳＤＬＣＳＤＬＣ There is no lack of warnings regarding the colonisation of Mars. ＬＣ A Mars colony warning ＮＨＮＨＳＤ If a colony was established it would take continuous efforts and major expense to keep it supplied, including likely rescue missions. Furthermore, the long-term isolation of the colonists may take its toll. ＳＤＬＣ When the Mars One project announced in 2013 that it was looking to recruit four people to send on a mission to colonise Mars, Chris Chambers, a professor of cognitive neuroscience at Cardiff University, warned of the psychological risks the colonists would face. ＮＨＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 74 At present there is no evidence of a liveable atmosphere under which plants or other organisms would survive on Mars. nhsdlc.cn ＮＨ Yet dreams stay alive. According to NASA’s mission statement: ＳＤＬＬＣＣ Even if Mars is devoid of past or present life, however, there’s still much excitement on the horizon. We ourselves might become “life on Mars”, should humans choose to travel there one day. ＳＤ Earth calling Mars ＮＨＮＨ Space colonisation dreams are not entirely devoid of economic interests. The international space industry is said to be worth in the order of some US$400 billion a year, and predicted to grow to nearly US$3 trillion over the next three decades. ＬＣＬＣ There can be little doubt that, given modern and future computer and space technologies, space stations could be constructed on Mars, where a few privileged humans may be able to live for periods of time. ＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤ Should humans colonise a life-bearing planet, we should ask whether organisms would fare any better than species extinguished on Earth. ＬＣ The ethical polarity between those dreaming of conquering space and those hoping to defend Earth from global heating and a nuclear calamity could not be greater. ＮＨＳＤ The billions and trillions of dollars required to develop and maintain colonies in space could approach the estimated US$1.69 trillion military spending globally in 2016. nhsdlc.cn ＳＮＨＳＤＬＣ Space travel and colonisation ideas are mostly promoted by engineers and entrepreneurs who stand to gain from these schemes, but far less so by biologists and medical scientists who understand the terrestrial origin and physiological limitations of the human body. ＮＨＬＣＬＣＳＤＳＤＮＨ 75 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet ＳＤＬＬＣＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＤＳＤＬＣＬＣＮＨＮＨＳＳＤＬＣＬＣＣＮＨ As a scientist who examines how a changing climate influences human evolution, I argue that funds on this scale would be better directed at the defence of the lives of more than 7 billion humans on Earth, as well as protection of animals and of nature more broadly. ＳＤＳＤＮＨ 76 ＳＤＬＣ NHSDLC Fall 2021 Main Research Packet nhsdlc.cn

2021 Fall Space Race Main Research Packet

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