MB MC Thinking Like An Economist MB Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MC MB MC Economics: Studying Choice In a World of Scarcity The Scarcity Principle: No Free Lunch Our wants are unlimited while our resources are limited. Even in a rich country like the US there isn’t enough resources (time, money, energy, etc.) to do or have everything we want. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 2 MB MC Economics: Studying Choice In a World of Scarcity The Scarcity Principle: No Free Lunch Scarcity implies we need to make choices Scarcity means that we encounter tradeoffs Scarcity implies that having more of one thing usually means giving up something else. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 3 MB MC Economics: Studying Choice In a World of Scarcity Wants vs. Resources Scarcity Choices Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 4 MB MC Economics: Studying Choice In a World of Scarcity Economics is therefore The study of how people make choices under conditions of scarcity and what the effects of these choices are on society. The study of Economics will help you make more informed choices. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 5 MB MC Economics: Studying Choice In a World of Scarcity The Cost-Benefit Principle An individual (or a firm or a society) should take an action if, and only if, the extra or additional benefits from taking the action are at least as great as the extra or additional costs. In Economics, extra or additional is called Marginal Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 6 MB MC Cost Benefit Principle What is the Optimal Class Size for Econ 1011? Let’s build a simple model to answer this. Simplifying Assumptions Suppose the only cost of offering classes is the professor’s salary and the cost of a classroom large enough. Assume that the university charges tuition only to cover costs (no profits). Data o Professor’s salary is $100,000 per semester and space costs $30 per student per semester Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 7 MB MC Application of Cost-Benefit Principle Should the University offer more small sections of Micro Principles? BENEFITS COSTS Improved learning outcome with better student-teacher interaction. Higher cost of instruction per student which translates to higher tuition. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MB MC Application of Cost-Benefit Principle Cost of a 225 student large lecture Cost of a 45 student small section Total cost : 100,000 + 225 x 30 = $106,750 Total cost : 100,000 + 45 x 30 = $101,350 Cost per student: $474.44 Cost per student: $2,252.22 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MB MC Application of Cost-Benefit Principle Choosing the Optimal Class Size Revisited Should the class size be reduced to 45 students? Yes, if the value of the additional (marginal) learning is at least $2,252 $474 = $1,778 to you. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 10 MB MC Application of Cost-Benefit Principle Does Bill Gates face scarcity? Will it be worthwhile for Bill Gates to stop to pick up a $100 bill lying on the sidewalk? Probably not! The distraction will probably not be worth his while! Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MB MC Application of Cost-Benefit Principle Does Bill Gates face scarcity? Bill Gates’ wealth is estimated at about $80 billion. Clearly he has more money than most. However, he still is constrained by 24 hours in a day and a limited amount of energy, and yes, a limited amount of money! Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MB MC Application of Cost-Benefit Principle Why do vending machines allow you to take only one soda can but as many newspapers as you want? Why do we have rectangular milk cartons and cylindrical soda cans? Why did many cars sold in the southern US not have heaters on them in the 1950s but now they all do? Why do women’s clothes button from the left and men’s clothes button from the right? Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MB MC Principle of Opportunity Cost What is your total cost of attending college? Accountant’s view (lay person’s view) – Tuition, housing, books and supplies, entertainment, etc., - a total of $60,000 + per year. Economist’s view – To the above add opportunity cost - the value of foregone wages. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 14 MB MC Principle of Opportunity Cost The opportunity cost of an activity is the value of the next best alternative that must be foregone to undertake this activity. It is not the total value of everything that you could have done had you not pursued this activity. It is simply the highest valued one. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 15 MB MC Principle of Opportunity Cost – An Example Say you are considering going to concert tonight. The ticket costs $60. You could also have tutored Dan in high school Math for $40 or you could have cleaned Prof. B’s garage for $30. If you choose to go to the concert your total cost (thinking like an economist) will be $100; $60 = explicit cost, money cost or accounting cost; $40 = opportunity cost. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 16 MB MC Principle of Opportunity Cost – Another Example Say you won a free ticket to the opera tonight (can’t be transferred or resold). There is a Cardinals game on as well and that is your only other option. A ticket to the game costs $40 and on any given day you value the game at $50 (implying you will not go to the game if ticket prices are more than $50, even if you have nothing else to do). There are no other costs of going either to the opera or to the game. What is your OC of attending the opera? $50 - $40 = $10 (net benefit from the game) Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 17 MB MC Applying The Cost-Benefit Principle Say you live on campus and want to purchase a backpack. You can buy the exact same backpack at the University bookstore for $60 or at Wal-Mart (in nearby Brentwood) for $25. Where will you buy? Apply the cost-benefit principle. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 18 MB MC Applying The Cost-Benefit Principle Compare the additional costs and additional benefits of the activity. Additional Benefit of buying at Walmart is: $60 - $25 = $35. Additional cost of buying at Walmart is: cost of gas, depreciation and the value of the additional time spent. Conclusion: Buy from Walmart if addl. cost is less than $35. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 19 MB MC Economic Surplus Economic surplus from taking an action is the net benefit (benefit – cost) from it. How can I figure out your cost (money cost plus opportunity cost) of going to Walmart? I can ask you: What is the least amount of money I have to pay you to go to Walmart to buy me something? Suppose you say $11. Then your ES from this Wal Mart trip = Economic Surplus = Benefit – Cost = $35 - $11 = $24. Conclusion: buy at Walmart if your ES>0. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 20 MB MC Cardinals Game Vs. Opera – Another Look Suppose you now know that the value you place on the opera is $35 (if you did have to buy tickets to the opera the maximum you’d pay is $35). What is the economic surplus from going to the cardinal’s game? Minus $25 = ($50 - $40) - $35 What is the Economic Surplus from the opera? Plus $25 = $35 – ($50 - $40) Would you go to the game or the opera? Opera. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 21 MB MC Applying The Cost-Benefit Principle Observation The cost-benefit principle suggests that we take only those actions that create additional economic surplus. The goal of economic decision makers is to maximize their economic surplus Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 22 MB MC Principle of Rationality A Rational Person is someone with welldefined goals who tries to fulfill those goals as best he or she can. Say you have a dinner date tonight. Your clothes are clean but not ironed (you dislike ironing clothes). Will you iron your clothes? Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 23 MB MC The Role of Economic Models Economic models are abstract constructs (simplified descriptions) that allow us to analyze situations in a logical way. Most of us make sensible decisions most of the time without calculating our costs and benefits explicitly. An understanding of basic economic principles help us take decisions in a more informed way. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 24 MB MC Three Important Decision Pitfalls Pitfall 1: Measuring cost and benefits as proportions rather than absolute dollar amounts Which is more valuable: Saving $100 on a $2000 plane ticket, or, Saving $90 on a $200 plane ticket? Assume you have to make both trips and you have only one voucher. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 25 MB MC Pitfall 1…continued Say you need to buy a $100 harddrive. It is available at the University Bookstore at full price and at BestBuy at a $25 discount . There are no other hidden costs or benefits. Where will you buy? Now suppose you need to buy a $1000 camera lens. It is also available on campus at full price and at Best-Buy at a $25 discount. Where will you buy? Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 26 MB MC Three Important Decision Pitfalls Pitfall 2: Ignoring (Implicit) opportunity costs People often make bad decisions because they ignore Implicit opportunity costs. Ms. A is trying to plan her Spring break. Round trip airfare to Fort Lauderdale is $500 and other costs equal to $1,000. She may also use a frequent flyer coupon (a Christmas gift from Mom) that is good for this trip alone. She is willing to spend a max. of $1350 for the vacation. Should she go? Net Benefit = $1350 – $1000; Yes Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 27 MB MC Pitfall 2: Ignoring Implicit opportunity costs…continued On calling the airline Ms. A finds out that her frequent flyer coupon is also good for flying to Chicago (Mom was wrong, as usual). She wants to attend a friend’s wedding there in two weeks time. A ticket to Chicago costs $400. Should she use the coupon to fly to Fort Lauderdale? Net Benefit = $1350 - $1400. No Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 28 MB MC Three Important Decision Pitfalls Pitfall 3: Failure To Think at the Margin Not all costs are created equal. The only costs that should influence a decision about whether to take an action are the ones you CAN avoid by not taking the action Similarly, the only benefits that should influence a decision about whether to take an action are the ones you WILL forego by not taking the action SUNK COSTS are beyond recovery at the time of decision making and should be ignored. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 29 MB MC Pitfall 3: Failure To Ignore Sunk Costs…continued Say you walk into an all-you-can-eat buffet. How much will you eat? Suppose the owner offers lunch on the house to 20 randomly selected guests. Will they eat any more on average? NO. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 30 MB MC Pitfall 3: Failure To Ignore Sunk Costs…continued In experiments people eat significantly more if they pay as opposed to if they get the lunch on the house. Either, people are irrational, or, They may have greater implicit costs when the restaurant offers the lunch free. For example, you may want to return the favor by not wanting to look like an insensitive glutton by eating like there is no tomorrow. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 31 MB MC Pitfall 3: Failure to think at the Margin…continued In addition to not ignoring sunk costs, people often use incorrect measures of costs and benefits especially when deciding on the extent of an activity to undertake Say I currently produce 100 pages of software code and am currently incurring $4000 in losses. Should I chug along? Loss implies Total Costs > Total Revenues. Also, I have an average loss of $40 which implies that Average Cost > Average Benefit. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 32 MB MC Pitfall 3: Failure to think at the Margin…continued But the Marginal Benefit may very well be greater than the Marginal Cost. That’s the key. Marginal Benefit: The increase in total benefit that results from carrying out one additional unit of an activity. Marginal Cost: The increase in total cost that results from carrying out one additional unit of an activity. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 33 MB MC Pitfall 3: Failure to think at the Margin…continued Average Benefit: The total benefit of undertaking n units of an activity divided by n. Average Cost: The total cost of undertaking n units of an activity divided by n. Economic decisions are taken using marginal costs. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 34 MB MC Economics: Positive and Normative Positive Economics A study of how people will behave. Normative Economics A study of how people should behave. Incentive Principle Is a positive economic principle that predicts that an economic agent is more (less) likely to take an action if, ceteris paribus, its benefit (cost) rises. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 35 MB MC Economics: Micro and Macro Microeconomics The study of individual choice under scarcity and its implications for the behavior of prices and quantities in individual markets. Macroeconomics The study of the performance of national economies, and of the policies that governments and central banks use to try to improve that performance. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 36 MB MC Economic Naturalism Why do many hardware manufacturers include over $1000 in “free” software on computers selling for only slightly more than that? Why do keypad buttons on drive-up ATM machines have Braille dots on them? Why do women buy wedding dresses while men rent them? Why do cars have so many “child safety” additions and most school buses not even have seat belts? Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 1: Thinking Like an Economist Slide 37 MB MC End of Chapter MB Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. MC