M15: PPP Aggregation Objectives of Module 15 By the end of this module, we will understand what PPP aggregation entails. PPP Aggregation Once the elementary PPPs are estimated, typically at the level of basic headings, the next step is the aggregation to obtain PPPs above the elementary level. Aggregation is done through averaging the elementary PPPs, or basic heading PPPs, and using the national account expenditures as weights for each basic heading. For example, the basic heading PPPs for “rice”, “cereals” and “bread” are aggregated to arrive at the PPPs for the “bread and cereals” aggregate. Similarly, all household consumption-related basic heading PPPs are aggregated to arrive at PPPs for household consumption. In order to conduct the aggregation, a matrix of PPPs and a matrix of national accounts expenditures weights are required. The aggregation of basic heading PPPs is undertaken for each classification level separately, up to the level of GDP. Page 1 of 7 M15: PPP Aggregation Methods for Aggregation of PPPs Similar to the case of elementary PPPs, several methods exist to aggregate PPPs above the basic heading level. Commonly used methods are the GEKS method or “Gini-Éltető-Köves-Szulc”, the IDB method or “Iklé‐Dikhanov‐Balk” and the GK method or “Geary‐Khamis”. One of main differences between these methods is additivity. Additivity means that the total equals to the sum of the components. GK and IDB methods are additive, while GEKS is not. Additive methods such as GK, and to a lesser extent IDB, are subject the Gerschenkron‐effect. This effect narrows the gap between high income countries and low income countries in terms of real expenditures, and, as a result, poorer countries tend to have higher real expenditures in comparison to methods that are free from the Gerschenkron‐effect. Page 2 of 7 M15: PPP Aggregation Choosing the Method Selection of the aggregation method depends on the intended use of the estimates. GEKS is preferred when comparison of real expenditures between the countries has priority. IDB and GK methods are preferred when additive, internally consistent, real expenditures are needed. The ICP uses the GEKS method as the official aggregation method. Page 3 of 7 M15: PPP Aggregation Knowledge Check Let’s see how we are doing by answering this question and click submit. Aggregation of PPPs Using GEKS Method GEKS PPPs are obtained by taking a geometric mean of direct and indirect Fisher PPPs. Let’s break this down to understand each step involved. Fisher PPPs Fisher PPPs are obtained by taking the geometric mean of the Laspeyres PPPs and Paasche PPPs. Hence, in mathematical terms, for any two countries j and k, the Fisher PPPs are computed as shown. The Laspeyres part of the formula is a weighted arithmetic average of basic heading PPPs, weighted by expenditures of a country represented here as “k”. The Paasche part of the formula is a harmonic average of basic heading PPPs, weighted by expenditures of a country represented here as “j”. Page 4 of 7 M15: PPP Aggregation GEKS PPPs It is important to note that the resulting Fisher PPPs are intransitive. As we learned earlier, transitivity is the property where the direct PPP between each pair of countries is equal to the indirect PPP derived via any third country. For example, in the case of the three countries A, B and C, the ratio of the PPP between A and B and the PPP between C and B is equal to the PPP between A and C. A direct PPP is a PPP between two countries calculated using only the prices and weights for those two countries. An indirect PPP is a PPP between two countries obtained by calculating it indirectly through a third country. In mathematical terms, the GEKS PPPs are calculated as shown here. GEKS formula achieves transitivity by estimating the PPP between any pair of countries as a geometric mean of direct Fisher type PPPs and indirect Fisher type PPPs. Page 5 of 7 M15: PPP Aggregation Aggregation of PPPs using GEKS Method (2) The resulting GEKS PPPs are base country invariant, transitive and free of the Gerschenkron effect. Page 6 of 7 M15: PPP Aggregation Additional Resources The following resources provide useful information for this module. “Ch. 4 Methodologies Used to Calculate Regional and Global PPPs” in Purchasing Power Parities and the Real Size of World Economies: A Comprehensive Report of the 2011 International Comparison Program“ “Elementary Aggregation Using the Country Product Dummy (CPD) Method” and “PPP Aggregation above the Basic Heading Level Using the GEKS Method” in Operational Guidelines and Procedures for Measuring the Real Size of the World Economy: 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP) “Methods of Aggregation above the Basic Heading Level within Regions” in Measuring the Real Size of the World Economy: The Framework, Methodology, and Results of the International Comparison Program (ICP) Page 7 of 7