What are the successive sequences of any War/Peace cycle? Choose one specific case study
and apply this theoretical model to its analysis.
The Russia- Ukraine Conflict
Table of Content
I.
II.
The framework of the War and Peace Cycle
Model-theorizing the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
III.
Conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Current Situation
IV.
The analysis of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
V.
Conclusion
The framework of the War and Peace Cycle
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It has been used to explain the dynamic nature of the study of international relations. Therefore,
rather than being two different states, war and peace are two extremes of a spectrum with various
levels of conflict in between. In other words, rather than being two separate states, war and peace
are the opposite ends of a continuum. This tactic has been used in a variety of situations,
including the War on Terror and current international conflicts. The hostile and cooperative
phases of each state alternate.
After the Soviet Union fell apart, Russia's intentions demonstrated how it was looking for and
figuring out a new grand strategy. As President Boris Yeltsin once said, "Each stage has its own
ideology."
Since 2014, Russia and Ukraine have been involved in a complicated and multifaceted conflict.
A series of war-peace cycles have defined the conflict, with periods of ferocious fighting
followed by intervals of relative calm. The conflict has consisted of recurrent cycles like these.
These cycles have appeared at various points over the course of the conflict.
In this essay, I will look at how the war-peace cycle has changed in relation to this specific
conflict, focusing on how it has shaped the future of the region and how it might do so in the
future. The use of this model to explain the current state of affairs between the two countries will
also be looked at in this section. This section will end with a look at how this model can be used
to help make political decisions that will lead to a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Model-theorizing the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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The model of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is based on a series of war and peace
cycles that have taken place since 2014. The first cycle started with Russian aggression in
Crimea and ended with a brief period of relative calm as both parties tried to diffuse the
situation. After that, hostilities intensified, culminating in a full-fledged military conflict in
eastern Ukraine in 2014–2015. After that, there was another period of relative calm during which
both parties made an effort to reach a cease-fire agreement. The latest cycle started in 2016 with
renewed Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, which sparked an escalation and a military
conflict that is still going on today. The theoretical model conceptualises the conflict between
Russia and Ukraine as a "hybrid war," indicating that both conventional and unconventional
military tactics are being used to conduct it. There has been a conflict between these parties for a
long time. This includes a wide range of hybrid warfare tactics, such as military operations,
economic and political pressure, cyberwarfare, and propaganda campaigns, among others (Kuzio
& Wilson, 2016).
The complexity of the conflict makes it impossible to foresee when or how it will be resolved.
Planning for the future is now more challenging. Additionally, it has been proposed that a variety
of factors, some of which originate within the nation and others of which originate outside of it,
combine to bring about the conflict (Kuzio & Wilson, 2016).
On the one hand, there are problems within the country, such as the unrest in Ukraine's politics
and Russia's interference in those matters. There are also problems between Russia and Ukraine
that happen on a global scale. One must consider a number of global factors, such as the rivalry
between Russia and the West for influence in geopolitical spheres (Kuzio & Wilson, 2016).
There have been numerous cycles of war and peace as a result of the contributions made by these
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factors. As a result of these cycles, there have been periods of fierce fighting and periods of
relative calm.
The first war-peace cycle started in 2014, when Russia formally annexed Crimea and then started
its military intervention in eastern Ukraine. There followed a time that could be characterised as
relatively calm (Kuzio & Wilson, 2016). Then, between 2015 and 2017, there was a period of
relative calm in which both parties attempted to negotiate the terms of a peace agreement. The
time frame for this was from 2015 to 2017. (Kuzio & Wilson 2018). Despite this, there were
sporadic instances of violence during this time; Kuzio and Wilson mentioned that they are
including the Debaltseve conflict in 2015 and 2018. There was a noticeable increase in fighting
in 2018 along the line of contact between Ukrainian forces and separatists who are supported by
Russia. This element has led to an increase in tensions (Kuzio & Wilson 2018). As a result, a
second period of relative calm occurred between 2019 and 2020, during which both parties
attempted to negotiate a second peace agreement (Kuzio & Wilson 2020). However, there were
still sporadic outbreaks of violence during this time, such as skirmishes along the line of contact
in the year 2020. One of the things that made this era distinctive was this.
Conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Current Situation
In order to thwart any potential Russian aggression, Ukraine has increased its military presence
along its border with Russia and pursued closer ties with NATO. To maintain control over the
region, Russia has increased the number of its troops along its border with Ukraine and made
attempts to approach separatist organisations there.
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External factors like the economic sanctions put in place by Western nations against Russia and
their support for the Ukrainian government complicate this cycle of distrust and hostility even
more. Both sides work hard to find a way out of this security bind without making major
concessions or risking more fighting because of these outside factors.
The conclusion of this theoretical model is that in order to end the conflict between Russia and
Ukraine, both sides will have to make real concessions that address their main security concerns
while also taking into account outside factors like economic sanctions and international support
for the Ukrainian government.
The study of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
The theoretical model of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which offers a crucial
framework, greatly facilitates understanding the current state of affairs between the two
countries. It explains how each subsequent cycle has been described by times of increased
hostility and tension, followed by times of relative calm as both sides try to defuse the situation
or negotiate a settlement. The cycle's distinguishing features—periods of rising tension and
violence followed by periods of relative calm—are also highlighted. This pattern reveals an
underlying dynamic between Russia and Ukraine that is characterised by cycles of war and peace
rather than a straight line leading to either side's victory or defeat. An underlying dynamic can be
seen in the war and peace cycles between Russia and Ukraine.
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The geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine, as well as their respective interactions
with other superpowers like the United States or the European Union, are also reflected in this
pattern. For instance, the relations between Russia and Ukraine with other major powers like the
United States or the European Union are similar despite the fact that both countries are members
of the Commonwealth of Independent States (EU). The United States or the European Union
have sought to increase the pressure on either party by imposing economic sanctions or other
policy measures, despite the fact that both parties have tried to de-escalate the situation by
engaging in negotiations or calling a ceasefire. As a result, these efforts have frequently been
thwarted (Kramer & Kudelia 2017). This implies that any long-term resolution to the conflict
must take into account both the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine and other
major powers, in addition to the internal dynamics between them.
The sequence described above also suggests that, despite possible instances in which tensions
abate or even stop altogether for a short while, they always seem to reemerge. Despite the fact
that tensions may occasionally ease, this is true. This suggests that while talks may result in
short-term ceasefires or even longer-term peace agreements, it is unlikely that they will lead to a
long-term end to the conflict unless underlying problems like the political unrest in Ukraine or
the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West are addressed.
Conclusion
The theoretical model of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its series of war and peace cycles since
2014 are discussed as this essay comes to a close. It has shown how this model can be used to
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comprehend both the current situation between the two nations as well as the larger geopolitical
dynamics at play between them and other major powers like the United States or the European
Union. Additionally, it has been suggested that both internal dynamics and external factors need
to be considered in any long-term resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The
theoretical model of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the war and peace
cycles related to this conflict, are examined in this essay. People have said that negotiations
aren't likely to lead to a long-term solution unless deeper problems, like the political unrest in
Ukraine and the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West, are solved.
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Reference list:
1. Barbashin, A. and Thoburn, H., 2014. Putin’s brain: Alexander Dugin and the philosophy
behind Putin’s invasion of Crimea. Foreign Affairs, 31, pp.1-6.
2. Almäng, J., 2019. War, vagueness and hybrid war. Defence Studies, 19(2), pp.189-204.
3. Kuzio, T. and D'Anieri, P., 2018. The sources of Russia's great power politics: Ukraine
and the challenge to the European order: [book]. E-International Relations.
4. Kuzio, T., 2020. Crisis in Russian Studies? Nationalism (Imperialism), Racism and War.
E-International Relations.
5. Kuzio, T., 2017. Ukraine between a constrained EU and assertive Russia. JCMS: Journal
of Common Market Studies, 55(1), pp.103-120.
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