CVD
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/05/2022
Cvd line goes down, open interest up. That’s shorts opening -cvd
line goes down, open interest goes down. That’s longs closing. -cvd
goes up, and open interest goes up. That’s longs opening -cvd goes
up, and open interest goes down. That’s shorts closing
if you use the footprint chart on gocharting.com. You can see inside
the candles. The red on the left of the candles is the shorts or
sell orders, the green is the longs/buy orders
Lucky Chart Ape
— 04/07/2022
Bearish CVD divergences are formed when market orders (either
longs opening, or shorts getting stopped). Run into limit
orders that are filling short positions into the rallys. If
they are big divergences absorbing alot of volume, you know big
traders are filling shorts. If you have traders building $100m+
shorts with limit orders, into these moves up, odds are better
trading with them. Retail doesn't absorb moves like this
Lucky Chart Ape
— 04/07/2022
but realize they aren't just "opening a position" with a market
order. They are building it over hours, or days. Depending on
the level. If there is liquidity above, they want price to keep
pushing into the positions, to keep filling. And always
possible the bigger fish comes and wrecks their shorts. Hence
risk management
CVD + 4h Candle
Lucky Chart Ape
— 06/07/2022
If you go and backtest the opening of new 4 hour candles, they
often give the start of impulses and key pivots. (although some
are overrun by the fact that for example there is a 4 hour
candle that opens 1.5 hours before NY open, and often times
that candle open isn't as pivotal)
(those are all 4 hour candle opens, on a 30 minute chart)
Lucky Chart Ape
— 06/07/2022
I find the 4 hour candle opens on either side of the NY open to
be a little less relevant, although still important
Lucky Chart Ape
— 06/07/2022
Again, this is just a probabilities thing, Nothing is 100%, but
to follow up on the video, these local highs and lows become
very significant following the 4 hour candle. As one of them is
likely to be a significant high or low. We just don't know
which yet
Lucky Chart Ape
— 06/07/2022
and now we know which one was more likely (which is the one I
thought.. lol)
SpirosK
— 28/07/2022
@Lucky Chart Ape why 4H and daily candles are so important pivot
spots? Does it have to do with algos and bots ?
Lucky Chart Ape
— 28/07/2022
I am sure there is a few reason. I actually think part of it is
because so many people trade "4 hour close above/below" setups. Or
"daily close above/below".. so price waits to trap those people, and
than reverses with a pivot after they put on their position.
think of how common place that "wait for a close" line is on twitter
accounts with 500k-1m followers. So many people long resistance
because a 4Hour candle closed above some arbitrary level they are
watching or a daily candle
and than price reverses
CVD
Lucky Chart Ape
— 11/07/2022
this is the logic from a cvd perspective for me. Lower
timeframe bullish absorption, higher timeframe bearish
absorption. Ultimately expecting lower, but logical to think we
will get some intermediary support somewhere along the way
local PoC and GP an important place to consider a tp1 on longs
if we show some weakness
Risk Management
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/04/2022
Something that usually makes a transformative difference, is
smaller size, and wider stops
So many people try to trade WAY to big for their account, and
set stop losses 0.01% away from entry
And end up getting pushed out of great positions over and over
again, losing money for no reason
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/04/2022
when you have time, do this. Pretend you entered here, and tell
me where your stop loss would go (GO to the chart, and show if
you would). The hint i'll give, is that your stop loss
shouldn't be a certain % away, it should be at invalidation,
under market structure. IF thats 3% away, thats fine, just
reduce your size, so you can manage risk properly
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/04/2022
Exactly, it needs to be under market structure to make sense.
It can't just be a random % away. Or you are just asking to get
stopped out
You need to adjust your size, to account for the wider stop
And if I was entering on the first touch of this level, I would
have my stops under this structure.
Which would stop me from getting wicked out at my key level
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/04/2022
If you need to move your stop loss up into areas of the chart
that are above invalidation for the trade to make sense from a
risk-reward perspective. You probably just missed the trade
mcjoshcrypto
— 12/04/2022
Ok. I'll start following that mindset. Stops at critical points
on the chart instead of percentages. Thanks
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/04/2022
Trades need room to breathe. If you are trading long on a key
level, it will never make sense to have your stop ABOVE that
key level. Because thats the level you are trading
price loves to retest levels, it loves to do a slight
"wick"/liquditiy grab before a reversal, etc
mcjoshcrypto
— 12/04/2022
makes sense now. Not sure why I didn't see that. And why did
you put the target where you did? And.... what made you enter
that trade? That's also part of my issue. When....lol
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/04/2022
well, that trade I actually found on livestream, doing a
members request. its a key fib, and plays into an elliot wave
idea (also a volume profile POC)
mcjoshcrypto
— 12/04/2022
ok
r1d1cUl0u5n1cK
— 12/04/2022
Great questions and literally personalized alpha served here.
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
It shouldn’t be taken for granted to have an entry, and price
moves 1-2% in your favour instantly. With no draw down. It’s
easy for people to turn their nose up at a 2% win. But if you
turn twenty 2% wins, into 1% losses instead, because you didn’t
take profits.. that adds up quick
Because not taking profits, and not moving your stop loss to
entry, can add actually add 4% risk to a position. Your not
just leaving profits on the table, your leaving your risk on
the table at the same time
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
What you just did, is putting everything on your terms now. You
have profits, you have locked them in, and the market can't
take them from you. Like you said, you can re-enter if you
choose to, on your terms, and just rinse and repeat
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
Make your tp1 your goal for every position. It should be all
you care about until it is locked in. Once it’s locked in, you
have done what few can, which is beat the market. Gotta hype
yourself up and feel good every time you do that.
pwnstar
— 07/07/2022
Let’s get it Lucky!
L84
— 07/07/2022
Lucky what’s the position sizing you’d do on a 500$ account?
I’d really like to know
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
1-2% risk in a position. Mathematically risk should always be
determined as a % of your account size. No matter the size,
your risk % should not change
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
I’ve had a couple people dm me saying that “my style” of risk
management and profit taking downs not work with small
accounts, because the profit is to small. But It’s a
mathematical certainty that over time, much more risk will
eventually just lose money
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
Correct
L84
— 07/07/2022
So it’ll a long.. very long process to generate a substantial
amount of money
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
Your risk management and sizing needs to withstand a 10 trade
loss streak. Because it will happen. Eventually
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
Yes, that is simply the reality. If anyone says you can make a
ton of money quickly and reliably (without a bunch of luck).
From a $500 account, they are lying. But, an account can grow
quickly, with reasonable trading. No matter the size
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
What people get wrong, is thinking their goal as a new trader
should be to make a ton of money. Which does not make sense.
You are at your most inexperienced. Why should you expect to
make a ton of money? You need to protect your capital, until
you have proven to yourself that you are disciplined and have
the skills necessary to trade profitably Your goal should be to
develop a skill, and good trading habits. Something you can
take with you the rest of your life. Forget the money, and
focus on execution. That will allow you to trade any size
account reliably. Developing the skills and discipline of a
professional trader is the prize. Not your PNL as a new trader.
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
The technical and emotional challenges of entries, stop losses,
and profit taking are challenging enough to learn without the
emotional toll of risking what amounts to significant amounts
of money to you. I would not recommend compounding that
challenge with trading large size as a new trader. Develop the
skills, slowly increase size
Question about Risk Management
joro1104
— 30/05/2022
As we are on the subject, what would your advice be in such
case when there is a position which was not cut in time for one
reason or another, selling at a loss and trading with that
capital or adding to on drops and trading them
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/05/2022
There are multiple layers to this. First, are you a profitable
trader? If you aren't than you should focus on developing those
skills before trading with your capital. Assuming you are. I
just look at it as your liquid capital. In any given moment,
you are trying to determine where your capital is best
deployed. So hypothetically, you could wipe your mind of your
past entries, your current downdraw, and just accept that your
available capital is where it is. Does it make sense to keep
your current positions open technically? if so, there is your
answer. IF not, than you want to look to deploy your capital
when it does make sense
Lucky Chart Ape
— 28/05/2022
Something that’s important to realize, is that you will rarely
take 100% of the profits available on a trade, but that’s not
your goal. Your goal is to systemize your profit taking, so
over the course of 50 trades, you are maximizing your profit.
Yeah, you might have a single trade where you held everything
for a 50% rally, and sold the top. But if you try to do that on
every trade, the lost profits will out weigh the benefit of the
1 time you did it. Your better off to consistently take profits
on 50 trades, then you are to hope for 1 home run, at the
expense of the other 49 trades
Question about Account Growth percentage
ben777
— 26/07/2022
@Lucky Chart Ape Hi, can I know what is a healthy account growth
percentage per month, with 1-2% risk per trade? What is your usual
account growth percentage, if you don't mind telling
Lucky Chart Ape
— 26/07/2022
This is really dependent on your trading style, and frequency. If
you trade 2 setups a month, it will be much different, than if you
trade 20. Here is an example that I think is reasonable Lets assume
19-20 trades a month, with a 50% winrate. Lets assume aggressive
profit taking, and a 2% stop. I am also assuming the only 25% of the
trades take a final target, and each tp only gets hit 25% of the
time (so tp1 only 25% of the time). This represents a 200 trade
sample size. It would be approx 8-10%+ a month at a 50% winrate,
trading 4:1 RR trades for 75% of your tp's and 8:1 for the last 25%
 It must make sense that your expected monthly growth is attached
to trade frequency, RR of setups, and win rate. I think this is a
very conservative example of what to expect from a very reasonable
approach, with a average winrate
Now.. increase your winrate to 75-80%? things start looking a bit
better. Increase the average RR of your winning setups, etc, things
look better
  - keep in mind I just did this with some quick mental math..
its more of an example and estimate.
Lucky Chart Ape
— 26/07/2022
The above example assume you have no big winners (huge swing trades,
etc), and assumes you always lose 2%. But it also assumes profit
taking lol. So maybe it all evens out
I know people want to hear you can easily make 200-300% a month with
proper/strict risk management. But.. unfortunately no.
Werner
— 26/07/2022
It's because of all the BS marketing and influencers out there
posing next to someone else's Lambo
Lucky Chart Ape
— 26/07/2022
I think it's best to paint realistic pictures. You should not expect
to out perform the best traders alive by a factor of 10. and you
should not even expect to perform near a top trader. Your goal
should be to become a profitable trader. Once you have achieved that
(just being profitable at all puts you in the top 5%). Aim higher
Thats why when you hit a tp1, and you lock in profits for the day,
you should feel proud of yourself
BTC Keylevel and FIBS
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/06/2022
it is just a local pull (this is the 30 min chart)
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/06/2022
pretty important to go back to pretty much any time bitcoin has
moved up.. on many timeframes. It does this. Ultimately it just
needs to be accepted that its how price moves. Yes we might
have a major rejection, but also.. if we don't price will still
move like this
mudi
— 12/06/2022
Yea make sense
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/06/2022
and you can even go back and measure the fibs of each local
pivot and retracement
it gives you a nice sense for how price moves
RSI
Lucky Chart Ape
— 16/06/2022
Well RSI is certainly correlated to price action, because its
calculated from price action. I think it is important to
understand what RSI isHashem
— 16/06/2022
No, RSI is a momentum indicator I can send some material about
it. I personally think to understand RSI it's better to switch
to a line chart
And the divergences tell you whether we're losing upside or
downside momentum, which is actually a nice piece of
information
Lucky Chart Ape
— 16/06/2022
RSI just takes the averages price gains across a certain
timeframe, divides them with the average price losses, and puts
them on a 0-100 scale
So its essentially saying "hey price is relatively strong
compared to the average over this timeframe" or "relatively
weak"
Lucky Chart Ape
— 16/06/2022
I know this is confusing maybe.. but thats because rsi is just
telling you that price is going up, and the strength of rsi
will be relative to previous price action.. So you might say,
"I notice when price has gone down alot, and then starts coming
up alot, it often times goes higher"
Lucky Chart Ape
— 16/06/2022
Yes, it’s not that you won’t find rsi correlating with price,
because it’s actually calculated from price. It’s going to say
“price is going down alot compared to before” or “price is
going up a lot compared to before” so of your in a strong
trend, say down, rsi will follow price, because it’s just
measuring the average loss in price on each bar. So it’s not
that it’s not interesting, but when you understand what rsi is,
you will understand that it will always do that in a strong
trend. But it doesn’t actually predict a strong trend. It’s
just measuring it
Swing Failure
Lucky Chart Ape
— 07/07/2022
remember a swing failure is when a level is taken, lost and
back tested as resistance. If it's just taken, its just a
breakout
the odds this high doesn't get taken at minimum seem incredibly
low at this point
Maximilian
— 08/07/2022
@Lucky Chart Ape In order to properly determine whether a SF
has been established , what time frame candle do you prefer ?
Or would the 15 min be as reliable as a 4 HR ?
Lucky Chart Ape
— 08/07/2022
Lucky Chart Ape
— 08/07/2022
We have a swing failure, we dont have a retest of the level yet
A retest would look something like this
Maximilian
— 08/07/2022
ok so 30 min TF would be ok ?
Lucky Chart Ape
— 08/07/2022
A swing failure can happen on all timeframes, usually even the
5 or 15. The higher the timeframe the more reliable
Questions from Members
Nilsberto
— 12/06/2022
Hi @Lucky Chart Ape , great to see we finally have someone with
a crystal ball :') Question : Given that I'm more the longer
term swing term guy, would it make sense for me to invest a
significant amount in alts at the next pullback (eg to the
27200 level, if we get it), and look for selling in the coming
weeks?
...or better to wait a few more days, to see wether BTC might
break down to traditional 200 week level
Lucky Chart Ape
— 12/06/2022
Well, that is a pretty hard for me to answer “significant
amount” is a vague term. It should be relative to your trading
account, and no matter if it’s a swing or a shorter term trade,
you want invalidation. Typically swing positions have wider
stops, and smaller size. Unless you get something like a swing
failure of a major low, and can justify bigger size, and a
tighter stop
 Everyone is always looking for some way to take big
positions (relative to their account) without taking big risk.
The risk is always there. And should be pre determined
 Sometimes you take a big risk, and pays off. But if you do
that to many times, your eventually going to get burnt
Ironically, one of the worst things that can happen to a new
trader, is taking a massive high risk position, and having it
work. Say If you 10x an account in Ironically, one of the worst
things that can happen to a new trader, is taking a massive
high risk position, and having it work. Say If you 10x an
account in a week. Because that can become a white whale you
chase for years, trying to duplicate something, that can’t be
duplicated reliably.
And it skews your perception of profits, and the market. Why
would you be happy with a 5% gain, when you have had a 200%
gain in a day? 5% is nothing. But one can be done over and over
again reliably, and chasing the other will continually blow up
your account
So to summarize. I think swing positions on Alts make sense,
but they still need to be properly sized, with invalidation
Lucky Chart Ape
— 16/06/2022
On a side not. When I share a trade setup I take (sometimes I
am exhausted, or waking up in the middle of the night, and then
going back to sleep). I have noticed, when I get DMs asking
things like "I took the position, with this risk, is it too
big?", or " I am worried, this will reverse, can I close it?"
or even "Do you recommend I take this position to?". From
hundreds of members, if I post something, I get a ton of
questions, which in essence, I don't mind. But I have found
myself occasionally not even wanting to share trades im taking,
because I am so tired... and don't want to answer the "why did
you take that trade, but not update us when to take profits? "
question I guess, I keep repeating that I am not sharing signals..
I am just sharing trades I AM TAKING, and the reasons why. Sometimes
I just want to take a trade and go back to sleep lol
parravel
— 24/07/2022
Hi @Lucky Chart Ape , thanks for sharing the upcoming plan with ETH
and BTC. Two questions ; Do you usually trade before the weekly
close? I've seen there's a lot of volatility. Regarding the strong
resistance of ETH, you'll wait for the reaction when touching it
(PA, CVD, Oi) or will you place a market order?
Lucky Chart Ape
— 24/07/2022
I will always market order (95% of the time). Waiting for a reaction
I would typically wait for the weekly close
parravel
— 24/07/2022
If I understood well ; you place your market order and after getting
filled, you stop it or let it play (if it looks good)? @Lucky Chart
Ape
Lucky Chart Ape
— 24/07/2022
Here is an example. I know what my stop loss will be, and my
position size, days or weeks before a level is hit. My stop loss is
predefined. IF I see a reaction I like. My trade is already planned
out. I take an entry, and just let it play out.
Its important to know what you invalidation is before entering. It
can be a level, or it can even be a reaction. I find that levels
will work best most of the time. Because it is very hard to
accurately read a reaction when you have a position open. Your
emotions cloud your judgement. That is why I typically don't open a
position.. and then try to guess if I should close it early or not.
(with the exception of a tp1). I just let it play out
if my stop gets hit, it gets it. My risk is pre-defined, and
accepted. Your stop loss should answer this question " how much am I
will to spend to see if this trade idea will work?"

and then you position size accordingly.
parravel
— 26/07/2022
I thought we usually made the readings on lower TF 5 - 15min (seeing
your 2h chart)
L84
— 26/07/2022
Yeah.. just shared it as a bigger outlook
parravel
— 26/07/2022
Interesting. Would like to hear lucky s opinion @Lucky Chart Ape .
Lucky Chart Ape
— 26/07/2022
High timeframe important for overall ideas, low timeframe better for
deciding on and timing entries
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
You said you are not learning from your mistakes? I think it would
be helpful to share some of your setups you took, and what happened.
kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
for some reason the ss i took wont get clear anyone know how to fix
this
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
Can you send a chart with your setups you felt went wrong? (Entry,
stop loss target)
kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
glad is asked al the ss in my journal al blurry for some reason so i
had to recreate it in hindsight but eth/usdt 28th 15;00 for me.
stoploss above the previous H at 1677. entry 1648 a stopping volume
candle appeared on the 15 min and the indicator was overbought this
area was resistance twice before

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
I wouldn’t say that was a bad setup persay. Just a trade that didn’t
work, first touches of key levels are usually the best time to
trade, 3rd-4th get a little iffy
 You entered in at resistance, with a sensible stop, and good risk
reward. Nothing wrong with that

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
get that you dont owe me anything i do appreciate it tho

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
first pic is what happend after


this was uni was expecting the bigger move to play out tbh
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
First question, what is the level you are shorting there?

What is your confluence for resistance ?
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
because on uni setup, I would say you shorted right before probably
the most relevant resistance
 that it seemed likely uni was pushing for (the POC of the range
above, and major golden pocket)

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
not sure anymore i feel like there was support on the left that
turned into resistance and at the time dxy was going up and btc and
aud/jpy + stocks went down uni went 20% up thats why i went short
but in hencesight i did jump the gun
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
these are the things I would be considering when price was where you
shorted
and this isn't hindsight. I made this UNI Ta almost 2 weeks ago

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
you right my thought proces was EMA's very over extended felt like
it was ready for a deeper retrace

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
I pretty much drew out this exact price action
 talking about if we push above that key horizontal, and backtest
it. You need to expect the GP, and if we hold as support again, its
reasonable to expect higher
I am only pointing this out, because Its easy for my to say "this is
what I would have done" in hindsight. But in this case. I actually
analyzed this area of the chart on UNI a couple weeks ago

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
true i dont know why i didnt look at the gp from the last h

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
Again, you are free to chart, and do TA however you want. But you
say you have watched and took notes on all my videos, but I don't
see a single piece of the TA toolkit I use on your charts
kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
its bcaus the ss i took are blurry use fibs alot

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
I guess the most helpful input I have for now, is I wouldn't try to
guess that a deep retrace is likely based on something like that. I
would just wait for high confluence, high probability levels to be
hit. If I get them, I take a trade, if I don't I dont

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
you dont look at stocks and dxy for example to add confluence? and i
would like to take more short term trades or would you say the risk
is to high for someone with not as much experience

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
gotcha makes sense

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
You can take short term trades, but the setups better be good with
high confluence. Or they will wreck you

kduncan010
— 30/07/2022
just looking back and talking makes me see things so im happy you
are taking the time on a saturday of all days

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
there is no point to just open more positions, for the sake of it
 Imagine this. - You WILL get high probability, incredible setups
offered to you over and over endlessly. All you have to do is be
patient and wait for them. You should get away from thinking "yeah,
but I also want to trade sub par setups to"
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
thanks! Here is an example of how price could still play up to these
levels. Just because we are pulling back, doesn't mean I think we
can't push up to them. Typically price action never likes to make it
easy. So I find, week after week, month after month, its better to
just be patient, and only trade the nice levels if you get them
 For example. XRP I charted a long time ago,
looked at the chart. I had no idea what it was
and looked when my alert went off. Often times
than staring at the chart, and trying to guess
be tapped
and havent even
doing. I only came
that will be better
if a major level will
because usually price action makes it look like it won't haha

Joaquin B
— 30/07/2022
Do you have a possible time for that to happen? Around 24-48 hours?

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
I am just showing an example. it could also play out 20 other ways.
The "when" question is probably the least important one, and the
hardest to answer

Joaquin B
— 30/07/2022
I said “possible” for a reason ahhhah
Lucky Chart Ape
-its one thing to
Its another thing
the thing is. The
usually important

— 30/07/2022
say "this is an important level if we reach it".
to say "we will reach it in this timeframe". And
when, doesn't typically mattter, as the levels are
regardless of when they get hit
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
but the vagueness sort of defeats the meaning. I get asked all the
time "is it possible for price, to go to X?", I respond "yes,
anything is possible". They respond, "I mean do you think it will?"
I respond "not sure, but if it does I would be interested in trading
it".
 People are usually asking a lot more than they are asking when
they as the "could this happen" "could that happen" questions. The
most revealing is the type of questions like "is it possible for
price to go up to $26.7k?". 90% of the time, thats their liquidation
price
 and what they are actually asking is "Is it possible for me to
get liquidated?". They know the answer, but they are hoping someone
like me will tell its not possible, in a round about way haha

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
sorry, I just need to make a point of what I am saying with my
response, and what I am not saying lol. I think it's possible that
we get it over the next 48 hours, and maybe even likely.

Joaquin B
— 30/07/2022
Hahaha, it’s actually great that you make those points. It helps us
to approach it in a better way
Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
If i was forced to guess likely times we could hit a major pivot
high (if we even get one). I would probably go with either of these
two options

Nilsberto
— 30/07/2022
Lucky? Since we're closing the month in those next hours: Do market
makers love to push price to print a high / low price right at the
end of the month, for some strategic reasons?

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
Holding price somewhere for the monthly candles is something they
might do. Also likely to get some volatility around its open

Nilsberto
— 30/07/2022
Thanks !
 I'll repeat my question I asked earlier already; hope you don't
mind answering: Do you also hold altcoins for the long term?
 ...or is it not your cup of tea to hold assets for position
trades?

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
Not randomly. If I did. It would be a swing trade, that is a
technical setup.
for example. I have a swing position on FTM running. I loaded up,
and even though I have aspirations to hold this for 300-400% move.
It is still just a trade setup, with invalidaiton and targets
But I am still waiting for support locally, to build a position with
invalidation. Does that make sense? Its not just a "HODL for the
longterm". Its a high timeframe setup. But a setup none the less
Nilsberto
— 30/07/2022
Yes, I totally understand your point. Let me ask you this way: Would
you – hypothetically – know that the BTC bottom is in, with 100%
certainty, would it be attractive for you to pick your favourite
altcoin and just hold it for a long while, without stressing about
it, without even looking at it, knowing that its price potential
would unfold alongside BTC's ascent to its next ATH?

Lucky Chart Ape
— 30/07/2022
LOL.. if i had that hypothetical, I would just leverage everything I
had into BTC, with my liquidation under the low

Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
Of course. You can swing trade, but you still need a setup with an
entry, invalidation, and targets

Nilsberto
— 31/07/2022
BAND for instance

Allright, yes, I believe that answers my question

Thanks a lot

Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
Also to realize, that high timeframe swing trades come along oncetwice a year

Nilsberto
— 31/07/2022
The thing is, I wouldn't mind too much if I was underwater

as long as I can be confident enough

that my fav alt is going to make it... eventually

Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
This whole sentiment can be more dangerous than you think

Assume anything you have can go to zero, and stay there

that should be the default. Manage your risk from that assumption

Nilsberto
— 31/07/2022
Yep, that helps too

rahib1234
— 31/07/2022
I just wanna grab a nice x6-8 leverage long on ftm at around 0.26-027$ with like 500$

Nilsberto
— 31/07/2022
Thanks a lot Lucky
Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
if you are making a plan with the assumption that "This will go up
eventually no matter what, so its ok if I am deep under water".. You
are asking to get wrekt
Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
being underwater is fine, but you need to accept the risk of $0. So
that comes down to positions size, etc. You CAN have trade setups
where your invalidation is $0. You just need to size appropriately
Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
My trading style works on all timeframes. If you don't want to day
trade.. dont.. But don't expect to be taking 2 year swing trades
everyday
Nilsberto
— 31/07/2022
even if it sounds a little bit ironic
Anyway, I really have to go take a nap. Hope to see you all tomorrow
for a GOD tier short entry
And a big thank you, it was extremely helpful to get this
conversation !
Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
Your problem seems to be that your expectations are disconnected
from the reality of the market. if all you want is great high
timeframe entries. Than mark out those levels and wait. Does that
make sense? All of the tools I use to analyze levels work on all
timeframes. You don't need to trade lower timeframe ideas if you
don't want to. If all you wanted to do was wait to swing trade a
0.786. Thats fine. Just accept you will be waiting 6 months for an
entry. That isn't an analysis style problem. Its a market reality.
Maybe you have 2 major swing levels on the way down. You try both,
and those are the only trades you take all year

Lucky Chart Ape
— 31/07/2022
I didn't take it wrong. One thing I would suggest, is figuring out
what frequency you want to trade, and only marking out levels on
that timeframe with alerts. Don't worry about the charts unless you
get them.
it might look something like this. 2 levels to the upside here, 2 to
the downside. something like This likely to produce 2-3 entry setups
per month.

Everything else, you could just ignore
 I also don't actually trade as frequently as I update. It looks
like it will be 4-5 days between my bitcoin trades, by the time I
actually put on a position
NEWS
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:09
the news/fundamental narrative shifted with price. I watched it
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:10
I disagree with this, people just don't understand the notion of BTC
as an inflation hedge ~ I responded this to one of your tweets
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:10
At the top, it was a good thing. It only "became a bad thing" to
explain away price
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:11
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:11

"bullish CPI" came in at the top

it became "bearish" after price dropped
I follow the news narrative closely. FEB 10th. the inflation date
was being heralded as the most bullish thing ever for bitcoin
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:13
So in that sense, you believe that none of the fundamental news that
was presented in 2022 had 0 impact on BTC?
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:14
yes
Lucky Chart Ape

blahboy134
— Today at 06:14
— Today at 06:15
News article A comes out to justify rejection of point B, but point
B is not a result of A, rather A a result of B (modus tollens vs
modus pollens in formal logic). My 2c
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:15
this harmonic had every major pivot for 3 months
there was a major news event at every single low and high

AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:16
So you have no general belief principles that once the Fed pivots
interest rates, inflation begins to lower, CPI data becomes more
favourable and consumer confidence improves, that it will have 0
impact on how BTC moves/trades?
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:16
and price did the opposite of the news
 people get played trading the news , and then get played be a
"re-interpretation" of the news, That forms to explain price action
 the prevailing narrative is almost always the opposite of what
happens
and a new narrative happens afterwards
and the old narrative is forgotten
.. lol.. I have seen it to many times to have a different oppinon
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:18
Fair
It's just hard for me to grasp given how highly we correlate with
the stock markets now, and the impact of fundamentals on those
markets, but obviously through your own long term charting, you were
able to pick the movements without any need of this
An example:
the last time the Fed pivoted with interest rates
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:19
watch more closely. The fundamental narratives dont shift at
resistance and support. They shift after major rejections and
bounces

AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:19
is this to say it had no impact then and will have no impact now
towards the end of the year?

Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:19
Its a game
and the game is liquidity. Getting everyone on the wrong side.. over
and over

AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:20
I feel that

Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:20
so I assume you went high leverage all in at the time?

AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:20
I wasn't trading with leverage then, no

Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:20
Don't tell me the prevailing narrative was bullish there lol


I know for a fact it wasnt
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:21
But the fundamental impact of covid, stimulus cheques, and a fed
pivot played NO ROLE AT ALL in BTCs run?
the quantitative easening then that occurred was insane?

Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:22
but think back.. when did that become the narrative
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:22
hmm very true, a lot later

Lucky Chart Ape
no one expected it
— Today at 06:22
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:23
pretending you can make decisions on that is nonsense. Because the
prevailing fundamental narrative is opposite of what happens, until
after it happens, and then changes and forms around what happened
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:31
If you go back and study major market crashes or moves, or turns
technically, and fundamentally. The technicals come into play much
before the fundamentals. Is it bizzare? Yea
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:33
There is crazy stuff. Foremost experts in Elliot wave prediction 40
years of gold price action: even admiring how bizzare the pa would
be, but just stating it was what Elliot wave theory suggested.
Meanwhile Tons of fundamental events/ narratives form around the
movement of golds price
luiscaceresd
— Today at 06:34
In lucky I trust
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:34
And that gold price action forms almost exactly over the next 40
years
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:45
What were people doing with bitcoin at $48k? Those narratives were
bullish. And were used to get people off side at the top
Nicholas9994
— Today at 06:45
Intermarket analysis is another topic?
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:45
Ignore it. Which usually results in counter trading it
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:45
That's my point though? Technically, people were bullish ~
fundamentally, everything was bearish, quite literally everything?
At least in my mind it was
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:45
Technically that was the easiest short on earth
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:48
As someone who shorts tops and longs bottoms.. I can tell you.: the
fundamental narrative is always bullish at the top, and bearish at
the bottom
That’s why we are making a top or bottom
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:49
Yep, understood
Now that you are explaining it, it is becoming glaringly obvious to
me
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:49
I am never going with the fundamental narrative, and commonly being
chastised for it
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:50
You think it was was fundamentally popular to short the top of Luna?
At the time, I was being told it was fundamentally impossible for
Luna to go down
AC-Dix.ms
— Today at 06:50
I notice your friend ****** also holds the same opinion ~ which is
why I am weary of believing such a take, as he was calling the
absolute BTC bottom at $38k technically and said he'd delete his
account if it wasn't the bottom. At the time, fundamentally in my
mind, that was impossible
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:50
Afterwards? “It was so obvious Luna was a ponzi”
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 06:54
One of the most likely things to shake me off an idea, is it become
a popular opinion or prevailing narrative
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 07:05
Worth nothing, often times when I do high timeframe analysis, my
personal reaction is “wow, that would be crazy.. but does make sense
technically “ . It’s rarely what I “think” will happen
pwnstar
— Today at 07:05
Great catching up on this thread, was a great discussion. Learned so
much
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 07:06
What you think should be irrelevant when it comes to ta. The ta
should inform your opinion, not the other way around
pwnstar
— Today at 07:06
Makes sense, expect the unexpected. You’ve got thousands of hours of
chart time. You spot the patterns
Lucky Chart Ape
— Today at 07:12
Unfortunately yes. People don’t make logical decisions. They make
emotional ones. The charts are psychological warfare