BASES BASES (Booz-Allen Sales Estimating System) is a STM which integrates consumer response data with manufacturers’ marketing plans to assess the volumetric potential of concepts and products prior to introduction. The system was developed in 1977 by Lynn Y.S. Lin who at the time was with Burke Marketing Research. Lin was inspired by work on market simulators at Pillsbury where he was working prior to joining Burke. BASES was acquired by Nielsen in 1998. BASES Premise Consumers do not usually do what they claim to do; and often the difference between claims and behaviours is very significant. This inconvenient truth, which complicates market research in general, must not be overlooked in product validation. As with other STMs, BASES rides on the premise that there exists a strong correlation between consumers’ claimed purchase behaviour and what subsequently transpires in the marketplace. While consumers overstate their intended purchase behaviour, they tend to do so with consistency. It has been observed that the level of overstatement varies by country, by culture, and by measure. With a database of about 200,000 concept tests (as of 2014), BASES is able to accurately estimate the adjustment factors required to deflate the respondents’ claims such that they closely reflect their behaviour. Model Structure Exhibit 11.5 BASES overview. An overview of the model is provided in Exhibit 11.5. BASES essentially takes consumer response data (what people say they will do), deflates it to adjust for overstatement, and adjusts for the impact of marketing activities to yield behavioural data (a forecast of what people will actually do). Data Collection Exhibit 11.6 Data collection at concept and product stage. Online is the preferred and primary mode of data collection as it yields considerable savings in time and cost of study. BASES has e-Panels in a number of markets in North America, Europe and Asia; the largest amongst these is the U.S. e-Panel, comprising 125,000. Where studies require face-to-face interaction (e.g. sniff or taste tests), mall intercept, controlled location tests and door to door methods are used for interviewing respondents. The two stage interviewing process is depicted in Exhibit 11.6. The concept stage, where respondents respond to questions on the product concept, yields information on product trial. In case of face-to-face interviews, those respondents who indicate they will not try the product (“definitely would not try”, “probably would not try”) are dropped from the product placement stage. For e-Panel surveys however, all respondents are moved to the product placement stage, and receive samples. After allowing respondents time to use the product samples, a post-usage interview is conducted to obtain information on respondents’ likelihood to repurchase the product. Exhibit 11.7 Example of a concept board (sourced from a student project, where ambrosia is a fictional beverage category). During the concept stage, either a concept board (like the one shown in Exhibit 11.7) or a commercial is used for conveying the product concept and the brand’s positioning. The board contains the information that will be communicated by advertising as well as details on prices, sizes and varieties. Other than that, no additional information about the brand or competitor’s products is provided. Analysis and Forecasting Exhibit 11.8 Purchase intent — proportion of respondent across a 5-point rating scale. The concept and after-use surveys obtain information for the purpose of volume forecasting. This includes purchase intent, purchase quantity (i.e. the quantity respondents’ claim they will buy should they try the product), and the frequency of purchasing should they continue to buy. The new product is rated on the factors that typically evoke consumers’ desire to purchase, for instance, novelty, likeability, credibility and affordability. Information is also obtained on product usage, its perception on key image and performance attributes, suggested improvement, drivers and inhibiters, and the source of volume. Purchase intent is measured on a 5-point rating scale similar to the one shown in the example in Exhibit 11.8. Considering that it pertains to respondents’ claimed intent to purchase, we need benchmarks to interpret this information. Whether the top 2 box scores of 41% and 81% for concept and after-use purchase intent are good or bad depends on how they compare with the BASES benchmarks. BASES database of about 200,000 tests is the primary device used for interpretation. It serves as the source for benchmarks for all key measures, both at the concept and afteruse phase. It is noted that while after-use purchase intent strongly correlates with inmarket success, purchase intent at the concept phase is not as good a reflection of inmarket success. Success targets accordingly are derived from the after-use scores obtained for products that were tested by BASES and that subsequently achieved inmarket success. Should a new product score higher than the BASES targets, it will have a high chance for success. To generate a forecast BASES requires the following inputs on the marketing plan for the new product: Introduction dates Budget Distribution and out-of-stock across retail channels Advertising schedule Consumer promotion schedule Trade promotion schedule Retail sales for category and company’s internal sales data Seasonality To the extent that execution is not in sync with plan, actual sales volume would differ from the BASES estimates. It is however possible to revise volume estimates based on revisions to the marketing plan. Exhibit 11.9 Volume estimation. The volume is forecasted by decomposing total sales into trial and repeat volume, as depicted in Exhibit 11.9. The forecast which pertains to the first two years of launch, yields trial volume, repeat volume, and consumption in terms of average frequency of purchase and the average quantity per occasion. In terms of key deliverables, BASES provides an estimate of a new product’s volume potential. It also estimates the product’s source of growth — how much the new product will cannibalize the company’s brands, and how much it will gain from competitors. In addition research diagnostics reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the new product initiative, and insights on how to improve the product, its mix and the execution plan. 基地 基础 （Booz-Allen 销售估计系统） 是一种 STM，它集成了消费者响应数据和 制造商的营销计划，以便在推出之前评估概念和产品的体积潜力。 该系统由林恩 Y.S.林于 1977 年开发，当时他是伯克营销研究公司。林先生受到 皮尔斯伯里市场模拟器工作的启发，在加入伯克之前，他在那里工作。基地于 1998 年被尼尔森收购。 基地前提 消费者通常不做他们声称要做的事，而且索赔和行为之间的差别往往非常显著。 这种不方便的真相，使市场研究变得复杂，在产品验证中不容忽视。 与其他 STM 一样，基地的前提是消费者声称的购买行为与随后在市场上发生 的事情之间存在很强的相关性。虽然消费者夸大了他们的购买行为，但他们往往 以一致性来这样做。 人们注意到，夸大其词的程度因国家、文化和程度而异。通过一个包含约 200， 000 个概念测试的数据库（截至 2014 年），基地能够准确估计需要调整的因素， 以淡化受访者的主张，以便他们密切反映他们的行为。 模型结构 附件 11.5 基础概述。 展览 11.5 提供了模型的概况。基础基本上采用消费者响应数据（人们说他们会做 什么），放气以调整以夸大其词，并调整营销活动的影响以产生行为数据（预测 人们实际会做什么）。 数据采集 展览 11.6 概念和产品阶段的数据收集。 在线是数据收集的首选和主要模式，因为它在学习时间和成本方面节省了大量成 本。基地在北美、欧洲和亚洲的多个市场设有电子面板：其中最大的是美国电子 面板，由 12.5 万人组成。 如果研究需要面对面的互动（如嗅觉或味觉测试），则商场拦截、受控位置测试 和门到门方法用于面试受访者。 展览 11.6 描述了两个阶段的面试过程。概念阶段，受访者回答有关产品概念的 问题，产生有关产品试验的信息。 在面对面的面试中，那些表示不会尝试该产品（"肯定不会尝试"、"可能不会尝试 "）的受访者将从产品放置阶段退出。但是，对于电子面板调查，所有受访者都进 入产品放置阶段，并接收样本。在允许受访者有时间使用产品样品后，将进行使 用后访谈，以获取有关受访者回购产品的可能性的信息。 附件 11.7 概念板示例（来源于学生项目，其中安布罗西亚是虚构的饮料类别）。 在概念阶段，无论是概念板（如附件 11.7 中显示的概念板）还是用于传达产品概 念和品牌定位的广告。董事会包含通过广告传达的信息以及价格、尺寸和品种的 详细信息。除此之外，没有提供有关品牌或竞争对手产品的附加信息。 分析和预测 附件 11.8 购买意向 - 5 分评级尺度上受访者的比例。 概念和使用后调查获取信息，以便进行量预测。这包括购买意向、购买数量（即 受访者声称如果尝试产品时会购买的数量），以及如果继续购买，购买频率。新 产品的评级取决于通常引起消费者购买欲望的因素，例如新奇性、可比性、可信 度和可负担性。还获得了有关产品使用、对关键图像和性能属性的感知、建议的 改进、驱动因素和抑制剂以及体积来源的信息。 购买意向的衡量标准为 5 分，类似于附件 11.8 中示例中所示的评级尺度。考虑到 它与受访者声称的购买意向有关，我们需要基准来解释这些信息。概念和使用后 购买意图的前 2 个框得分为 41% 和 81%， 是好是坏取决于它们与基础基准 的比较情况。 约 200，000 次测试的基地数据库是用于解释的主要设备。它作为概念阶段和使 用后阶段所有关键措施基准的来源。需要注意的是，虽然使用后购买意图与市场 内的成功密切相关，但概念阶段的购买意图不如市场内成功的良好反映。因此， 成功目标来自为通过基础测试的产品获得的使用后分数，以及随后在市场上取得 的成功。如果新产品得分高于基础目标，它将有很高的成功机会。 要生成预测，基础需要以下对新产品营销计划的投入： 介绍日期 预算 跨零售渠道的分销和库存外 广告时间表 消费者促销时间表 贸易促进时间表 类别和公司内部销售数据的零售销售 季节性 如果执行与计划不同步，实际销售量将不同于大卖部的估计。但是，可以根据对 营销计划的修订数量估算。 附件 11.9 卷估计。 根据展览 11.9 所述，将总销售额分解为试用量和重复量来预测该卷。与发射头两年的 预测、试验量、重复量和消费量（按平均购买频率和每次平均数量计算）。 在关键交付产品方面，基地提供了新产品的体积潜力估计值。它还估计了该产品 的增长来源——新产品将蚕食公司品牌多少，以及它将从竞争对手那里获得多少 收益。此外，研究诊断揭示了新产品计划的优点和缺点，以及如何改进产品、其 组合和执行计划的见解。