Bogazici University
Department of Economics
Spring 2023
EC 470 – 01: Turkish Economy
Instructor: Ceyhun Elgin
Office: NB 212
Office hours: By appointment
E-mail: ceyhun.elgin@boun.edu.tr
Website: http://www.ceyhunelgin.com
Lecture: TFF - 123
E-mail is the best way to reach me. Please allow up to 24 hours for a reply.
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Course description
This course aims to increase student knowledge and understanding of the Turkish economy. To
this end, various issues concerning the Turkish economy will be covered both from a historical and
analytical perspective. Topics to be covered include, but are not limited to; economic organization
in, and resources of, Turkey; structure and trends in income, production, population, finance and
trade; and evolution of economic policy. Moreover, students will also be encouraged to draw on
material from other countries to gain a comparative perspective.
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Prerequisites
According to the university catalog EC 203 (Microeconomics 1) and EC 205 (Macroeconomics 1)
are prerequisites for EC 470. Moreover, you have to be a senior level (fourth year) student in
order to be eligible for taking this course. Since economics uses mathematical modeling as a tool
to understand complex human behavior. Math-wise, I will take as granted that you know how
to work with calculus (derivatives and general optimization). Considering that this is an applied
theory course we will also be working with the data. Therefore, at the very minimum, you should
have a working knowledge of some program to organize data (like Microsoft Excel).
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Textbook
There is no required textbook of the course. Course readings will be made available online.
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4.1
Course requirements
Class participation
Active attendance and participation in lectures and class-activities are strongly encouraged (as
it will constitute 6 % of your overall grade) and you should keep in mind that the definition
of participation includes relevant contributions to class discussion, and participation in in-class
activities.
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4.2
Midterm and Final Exams
There will be one midterm exam and one final exam. The date of the midterm exam will be
announced in due course.
4.3
Group Presentation
Last 7-8 weeks of the course will be devoted to group presentations. To this end, you will come up
with groups of at most 5 students. Each group will also have a group leader. Presentation groups
will be responsible for preparing a 20-25 minute presentation about a topic or paper related to
the course’s material. Each presentation will be followed by a class discussion. (A suggested, but
not required, list of topics is provided below). I expect a formal exposition, and will assume that
all members of the team worked together to prepare the presentation. To assess this, the order
of exposition will be random; each team member must be ready to present any given part of the
presentation. Each student’s grade on the presentation will be as follows: 65% will depend on my
assessment and 35% on the score given by the group leaders. Topics will be chosen by the groups
on a first-come first-served basis.
1. Macroeconomic Policy: Monetary Policy and the Central Bank
2. Macroeconomic Policy: Fiscal Policy: Taxation and Budget Expenditures
3. Macroeconomic Policy: Inflation, Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
4. Macroeconomic Policy: Stability, Growth, External Balance and Debt Sustainability
5. Political Economy, Political Business Cycles, Economic Determinants and Effects of Elections
6. Crises of the Turkish Economy
7. Development Planning in Turkey
8. Turkish Economy from an Institutionalist perspective: Role of Private and Public Institutions
9. Globalization, Foreign Trade Liberalization, Customs Union with the EU and inward and
outward FDI
10. Current Structure of the Economic Management under the Presidential Regime in Turkey
11. Sources of Growth and Growth Financing - Savings, Investment, Capital Accumulation, Foreign Capital Inflows, FDI
12. Growth, Productivity and Employment in Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services
13. Agriculture - Transformation of Agriculture
14. Labor Market, Unionization, Participation, Employment, Unemployment
15. Public Enterprizes, Privatization and Regulation
16. Income/Wealth Distribution and Poverty
17. Energy Economics: Perspectives from the Turkish economy
18. Environmental Economics: Perspectives from the Turkish economy
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19. Informal (Shadow, Hidden) Economy in Turkey
20. Economics of Education excluding Higher Education
21. Economics of Higher Education in Turkey
22. Outsourcing in Turkey
23. Economics of the Construction Sector
24. Gender Issues in the Turkish Economy
25. Public-Private Partnership Investments in Turkey
26. Turkey as an Open Economy: Trading Partners of Turkey
27. Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees/Migration
28. Impact of the Covid-19 on the Turkish Economy
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Grading policy and grading scale
The weights for the final score will be as follows:
Concept
Attendance & Participation
Midterm Exam
Group Presentation
Final Exam
Percentage of final grade
6%
30%
24%
40%
Below is the grading scale for the course. I reserve the right to lower these cut-off points (i.e.,
increase the letter grades for percentages), but I will not raise the cut-offs (i.e., make it harder to
get good grades).
Percentage
Grade
100-90
AA
89-85
BA
84-80
BB
79-75
CB
74-70
CC
3
69-60
DC
59-50
DD
50-0
F
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Tentative Course Schedule
The material that will be covered is summarized below. In the course of progress this schedule may
change. I will notify you in advance when such a change occurs.
Week 1: Introduction, Pre-republic and Early (First) Republic Era
1. Introduction to the Course
2. Revolution and War Years: 1908-1922
3. Open Economy in the Early Republic: 1923-1929
4. Protection and Etatist Industrialization: 1930-1939
5. Second World War: 1939-1945
Week 2: Fall of the First Republic and the Second Republic
1. Integration with the World Economy: 1946-1953
2. Unsustainable Integration and Re-Integration: 1954-1961
3. Domestic Oriented Import Substitution: 1962-1976
4. Economic and Political Crisis, Fall of the Second Republic: 1977-1980
Week 3: Third Republic
1. Restrengthening of Capital and Trade Liberalization: 1980-1988
2. Financial Liberalization and Thereafter: 1989-cont’d
3. Economics of the Presidential Regime: 2016-cont’d
Readings for the First Three Weeks
—————
• Alexander, A. P. 1960. Industrial Entrepreneurship in Turkey: Origins and Growth. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 8:4 p.349-365.
• A ýr, S., Ertunc, C. 2019. The Wealth Tax of 1942 and the Disappearance of Non-Muslim
Enterprises in Turkey. Journal of Economic History. 79 (1), 201-243.
• Boratav, K., and Yeldan, E., 2001. Turkey, 1980-2000: Financial Liberalization, Macroeconomic (In)-Stability and Patterns of Distribution.
• Cecen, A., Dogruel, A., and Dogruel, F. 1994. Economic Growth and Structural Change in
Turkey 1960-88, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Feb., 1994),
pp. 37-56
• Ertugrul, A., and Selcuk, F. 2001. A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1980-2000,
Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 37: 6, p.6-30.
• Erder, N., Karaosmanoglu, A., Cilingiroglu, A. and Sonmez, A., 2003. Planli Kalkinma
Seruveni, Istanbul Bilgi Universitesi Yayinlari.
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• Kucuk, Y. 1966. The Macro-Model of the Plan.
• Kucuk, Y. 1966. Sectoral Programming in the Plan
• Milor, V. 1990. The Genesis of Planning in Turkey. New Perspectives on Turkey. 4, 1-30.
• Nas, T. 2008. Tracing the Economic Transformation of Turkey from the 1920s to EU Accession, Chapters 2 and 3.
• Okyar, O. 1979. Development Background of the Turkish Economy, 1923-1973 Source: International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3 pp. 325-344
• Pamuk, S. 2000.Intervention during the Great Depression Another look at Turkish experience
Ch 12 in the Mediterranean Response to Globalization before 1950, Routledge Press, London
and New York.
• Pamuk, S. 1981. Political Economy of Industrialization in Turkey. MERIP Reports, No. 93,
Turkey: The Generals Take Over pp. 26-32.
• Pamuk, S. 2019. Uneven Centuries: Economic Development of Turkey Since 1820. Princeton
University Press.
• Sakallioglu, U., and Yeldan, E. 2000. Politics, Society and Financial Liberalization: Turkey
in the 1990s, Development and Change, 31, pp.481-508.
• Shorter, F. C. 1985. The Population of Turkey after the War of Independence. Int. J. Middle
East Stud. 17 (1985), 417-441.
• Turkes, M. 2001. A Patriotic Leftist Development Strategy Proposal in Turkey in the 1930s:
The Case of KADRO (CADRE) Movement Int. J. Middle East Stud. 33, 91-114.
• Taymaz, E and E. Voyvoda (2012) Marching to the Beat of a Late Drummer: Turkey’s
Experience of Neoliberal Industrialization since 1980?, New Perspectives on Turkey, No 47,
pp. 83-113.
Week 4: A Retrospective Evaluation
1. Evaluating the Growth Performance
2. Evaluation the Economic Policy
Readings for Week 4
• Altug, S., A. Filiztekin and S. Pamuk. 2008. Sources of Long-Term Economic Growth for
Turkey, 1880 – 2005”, European Review of Economic History, Vol. 12, pp. 393-430.
• Bugra, A., and Keyder, C. 2006. The Turkish welfare regime in transformation, Journal of
European Social Policy, 16:3, pp.211-228.
• Cicek, D., and Elgin, C. 2011, Not-Quite-Great Depressions of Turkey, Economic Modelling,
28(6), pages 2691-2700.
• Cicek, D., and Elgin, C. 2011,Accounting for Turkish Business Cycles, with Deniz Cicek,
Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, vol. 26(309), pages 09-32.
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• Geyikdagi, V. N., and Geyikdagi, Y. M. 2009. Liberalization in Turkey: Does History Repeat
Itself?,Middle Eastern Studies, 45, 71–86.
• Imrohoroglu, A., Imrohoroglu, S., and Ungor, M. 2010. Agricultural Productivity and Growth
in Turkey.
• Elgin, C. and Kuzubas, T. U. 2012. Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector,
Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, vol. 27 (316), pages 09-31.
• Onis, Z. and Senses, F. (2007), ”Global Dynamics, Domestic Coalitions and a Reactive State:
Major Policy Shifts in Post-War Turkish Economic Development”, METU Studies in Development, Vol. 34. No. 2, 2007, pp.251-286.
Weeks 5-6: Current Issues in the Turkish Economy
1. Labor Issues
2. Political Economy
3. Crises
4. Regulation
5. Informality
Readings for Weeks 5-6
• Adaman, F.; Bugra, A. and Insel, A. (2009), “Societal Context of Labor Union Strategy: The
Case of Turkey”, Labor Studies Journal, 34(2): 168-188.
• Arpac, O. and Bird, G. (2009), “Turkey and the IMF: A case study in the political economy
of policy implementation”, The Review of International Organizations, 4 (2): 135- 157.
• Bakir, C. (2009), “Wobbling but Still on its Feet: The Turkish Economy in the Global Financial Crisis”, South European Society and Politics, 14(1): 71-85.
• Baziki, S. B., Kilic, Y., Yilmaz, M. H. (2022). Consumer loan rate dispersion and the role of
competition: Evidence from Turkish banking industry. Central Bank Review.
• Cosar, E. E. (2021). Okun?s law under the demographic dynamics of the Turkish labor
market. Central Bank Review. 21 (2), 59-69.
• Erduman, Y., Eren, O., Gul, S. (2020). Import Content of Turkish Production and Exports:
A sectoral analysis. Central Bank Review, 20 (4), 155-168.
• Dumludag, D. (2009), “An Analysis of The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in
Turkey: The Role of The Institutional Context”, Journal of Business Economics Management,
10(1):15-30.
• Emrence, C. (2008), “After Neo-liberal Globalization: The Great Transformation of Turkey”,
Comparative Sociology, 7: 51–67.
• Gul, S. (2021). Domestic demand and exports: Evidence from Turkish firms. Central Bank
Review. 21 (3), 105-118.
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• Rodrik, D. (2009), “The Turkish Economy after the Crisis”, Turkish Economic Association
Discussion Paper, 2009/9.
• Onis, Z. (2009), “Beyond the 2001 financial crisis: The political economy of the new phase of
neo-liberal restructuring in Turkey”, Review of International Political Economy, 16:3 August
2009: 409–432.
• Onaran, O. and Oyvat, C. 2016. The Political Economy of Inequality and Boom-Bust Cycles
in Turkey: Before and After the Great Recession.
• Zenginobuz, E. Ü. (2008), “On Regulatory Agencies in Turkey and Their Independence”,
Turkish Studies, 9(3): 475- 505.
• Herr, H. and Sonat, Z. M. (2014). The fragile growth regime of Turkey in the post-2001
period. New Perspectives on Turkey. 51.
• Elgin, C. and Sezgin, M. B. (2017).Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and
Application for the Turkish Economy. The Developing Economies. 55 (4), 261-289.
• Sevinc, O., Demiroglu, U., Cakir, E., Bastan, E. M. (2022). Potential growth in Turkey:
Sources and trends. Central Bank Review.
• Cantekin, K. and Elgin, C. (2017). Extent and Growth Effects of Informality in Turkey:
Evidence from a Firm-Level Survey. Singapore Economic Review.
• Tongur, U., Turkcan, K., Ekmen-Ozcelik, S. 2020. Logistics performance and export variety:
Evidence from Turkey. Central Bank Review. 143-154.
• Yeldan, E. and Unuvar, B. (2016). An Assessment of the Turkish Economy in the AKP Era.
Resarch and Policy in turkey. 1 (1), 11-28**
• Aldan, A., Cirakli, M. E., Torun, H. (2021). Covid 19 and the Turkish labor market: Heterogeneous effects across demographic groups. Central Bank Review. 21 (4), 155-163.
• Elveren, A. Y. (2021). Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalarýn Ekonomiye Etkisi. Askeri Harcamalar
ve Ekonomi. Ýleti im.
• Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, Ceyhun Elgin, Oguz Oztunali 2017. TFP Growth in Turkey Revisited: The Effect of Informal Sector. Central Bank Review. 17 (1), 11-17.
• M.G. Kýrdar, M. Dayýo lu and Ý. Koç (2018) The Effects of Compulsory Schooling Laws on
Teenage Marriage and Births in Turkey, Journal of Human Capital 12(4): 640-668.
• Cem Baslevent, Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2016. Economic Voting in Turkey: Perceptions, Expectations, and the Party Choice. Research and Policy on Turkey. 1 (1), 88-101.
• Oyvat, Cem and Tekgüç, Hasan, 2017. Double squeeze on educational development: land
inequality and ethnic conflict in Southeastern Turkey, Greenwich Papers in Political Economy
16812, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
• Sasmaz, A., Yagci, A. H., Ziblatt, D. 2022. How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on
Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey. Comparative Political
Studies.
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• Aslýhan Atabek Demirhan, Hakan Ercan 2018. Export Behavior of Turkish Manufacturing
Firms Under Crises TCMB Working Paper No. 18/02.
• Soybilgen, B., Yazgan, Ege. 2017. An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central
Bank Review. 17 (1), 31-38.
• Bedirhanoglu, P. 2022. Economic Management under the Presidential System of Government
in Turkey: Beyond the Depoliticization versus Repoliticisation Dichotomy. Journal of Balkan
and Near Eastern Studies. 24 (1), 97-113.
• Taskinsoy, John, Economic Meltdown in Turkey: Great Divergence Fueled by Erdogan?s
Quixotic Policies (2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4190664orhttp:
//dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4190664.
• Sahinoz, S., Cosar, E. E. 2018. Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey.
Applied Economics Letters. 25 (21).
• Sasmaz, A., Yagic, A. H., Ziblatt, D. (2022). How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on
Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey. Comparative Political
Studies. 55 (11), 1947-1980.
• Altinors, G., Akcay, U. 2022. Authoritarian neoliberalism, crisis, and consolidation: the
political economy of regime change in Turkey. Globalization, 19 (7), 1029-1053.
• Ayhan, B., Ustuner, Y. 2023. Turkey?s public?private partnership experience: a political
economy perspective. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. 23 (1), 115-138.
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