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ARE AUTONOMOUS SHIPS THE RIGHT APPROACH FOR THE FUTURE?
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Abstract
Safer, eco-friendly, and cost-effective autonomous ships are coming to the commercial and
military sectors. Maritime scientists and military warfare officers are interested in autonomous
ships. Many R&D initiatives have studied the prospect of combining this game-changing
technology that will allow ships to traverse oceans and seas without aboard personnel. Global
shipping efforts and programs to make such concepts possible remain in focus. This article
examines the future of autonomous trade and military ships, including possible problems.
Participants will include seafarers and military authorities, and data will be gathered via online
surveys from maritime technology companies. Using SPSS v. 21, data will be evaluated to see
whether a complete transition to autonomous ships is inevitable. The data will also be used to
determine whether autonomous ships increase carrying capacity, reduce personnel expenses, and
cut operating costs. Moreover, there are still concerns about human errors, the safety and security
of autonomous shipping. The absence of a crew seems to be crucial, and it is unclear how
autonomous vessels can replace this void. No one knows for sure whether the future of maritime
travel will be unmanned, semi- or fully-autonomous, but whichever way, it is unavoidable.
Key words: Semi-autonomous, fully-autonomous, unmanned, safety, human error,
safety, security, costs.
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Table of Content
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 2
Background Science Review ........................................................................................................................ 4
Automation and Philosophies of Control .................................................................................................. 5
Remote Control ...................................................................................................................................... 5
Semi-Autonomous .................................................................................................................................. 5
Fully-Autonomous.................................................................................................................................. 6
Shipping and Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) ............................................................................................ 6
Case Study Projects ................................................................................................................................... 7
MUNIN .................................................................................................................................................. 7
DNV GL - Revolt.................................................................................................................................. 10
Research Gaps ......................................................................................................................................... 11
Research Aim and Objectives ................................................................................................................. 12
Research Questions ................................................................................................................................. 13
Project Plan ................................................................................................................................................. 13
Research Hypothesis ............................................................................................................................... 13
Proposed Methodology............................................................................................................................ 14
Research Design .................................................................................................................................. 14
Experiments/ Measurements to be Observed ....................................................................................... 14
Statistical Testing ................................................................................................................................ 15
Resources Required ............................................................................................................................. 15
Research Timeline ............................................................................................................................... 16
Reference List ......................................................................................................................................... 17
Appendix A ............................................................................................................................................. 20
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Background Science Review
In recent years, autonomous ships have captivated the interest of maritime experts
significantly. As attempts and programs to make such concepts realistic in global shipping gather
steam, their futures remain in the spotlight. Numerous research and development programs have
investigated the viability of establishing this game-changing trajectory, in which ships would
traverse oceans and seas unmanned and under remote command. In this context, it is anticipated
that autonomous vessels such as drones would soon find widespread use on the seas (Höyhtyä,
and Martio, 2020). The maritime communities seemed to have accepted this path of technology
owing to its economic benefits. Autonomous ships are impacting the future of maritime
transportation primarily because they can lower prices dramatically. Currently, conventional
ships use autonomous platforms largely for measuring equipment such as offshore technologies,
hydrography, and oceanography.
However, the majority of these procedures are undertaken at ports and in controlled-test
environments. Moreover, autonomous liners have found several uses in current ocean transits,
and Asian countries have begun the development of completely autonomous ships. Their
principal purpose is to acquire fully automated, low-cost passenger and freight ships that can
meet the present global maritime transportation needs. Choosing the most suitable, fuel-efficient,
and cost-effective system for commercial ships is the most difficult choice (Xie et al., 2021).
Autonomous cruise liners may be more efficient than traditional manned vessels, but they still
have significant drawbacks that may hinder their future progress (Mehta et al., 2021).
Uncertainty remains as to whether the new maritime transit paradigm will soon be unmanned,
semi-autonomous or completely autonomous.
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Automation and Philosophies of Control
The use of the word "automation" in contemporary technology differs between roles and
sectors. There are a variety of stages and levels of automation in existence today, and it is
necessary to clarify their implications in relation to maritime technology, particularly vessel
controlling operations. The automation utilized in the framework of unmanned ships may be
evaluated from the standpoint of the machinery, software, guiding principles, and vessel
modeling approach. Consequently, there are three common types of vessel automation.
Remote Control
A gadget, piece of equipment or complex system that initiates control action on its own
and obtains a control instruction from a remote control center is referred to as "remotecontrolled." Based on how the system will be used, this control center may be positioned at sea
or on land. The crew aboard is exclusively responsible for running or decontrolling the ship's
operations and subsystems (Wróbel, Montew, & Kujala, 2018, p. 334). Frequently, remote
control necessitates the availability of an expert who will operate the vessel electronically. This
results in lower design costs for the vessel. This innovation is not the best choice in current
marine engineering since it is capital-intensive and has little influence on operational costs
(Wróbel et al., 2018). Given the nature of the technology-based components necessary to gather
and send real-time data back to the control center, the overall design also incurs substantial
expenditures.
Semi-Autonomous
Semi-autonomous describes a device or equipment that is administered in part by humans
and in part by computer networks. It is a system that can deal with unpredictable real-world
situations while still allowing for human interaction. The system is a combination of a remote-
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controlled system and an autonomous unit with complete control.
Fully-Autonomous
Fully autonomous systems are those that operate on the basis of pre-programmed
protocols. The system employs radio antennae to intercept signals, alter the generated message,
and trigger control measures depending on the information analysed. According to Munim
(2019), the technology is able to remotely inform the control centre in the case of a defect,
emergency, or incursion. The command centre would subsequently take the necessary remote
control measures. However, the system is increasingly complicated and needs large technical
expenditures that can comprehend and adapt to complex situations and events. According to Fan,
Montewka, and Zhang (2021), this is the most popular military system, especially for naval
automated processes. It is a fact that crewing costs are among the most expensive operating
expenses for ships. The cost of employing and keeping personnel accounts for over half of the
total cost of running a vessel. Nevertheless, fully-controlled ships eliminate the need for staff,
and a single operator may handle many vessels from a single monitoring centre.
Shipping and Vessel Traffic Services (VTS)
Today, more than 500 VTSs are operational across the globe as indicated in the
International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities (IALA,
2016). The information and guidance supplied by VTS enhance situational awareness (SA) for
safe navigation in VTS regions. These interactions have avoided possible collisions and
groundings several times. Numerous maritime incident assessments have identified VTS as an
essential bridge resource that contributes to navigational safety. The connection between the
captain, crew, and VTS is interdependent. On this premise, a number of IALA-VTS Guidelines
and Recommendations has been produced, boosting manoeuvring safety via enhanced human
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contact.
In a marine environment that is in a perpetual state of flux, VTS functioning is constantly
challenged. From its inception in the 1940s with a single stand-alone coastal radar station to the
sophisticated distributed systems of today, which link a huge number of sensors and subsystems,
the evolution of radar technology has been dramatic. Given the accessibility of signals through
AIS, internet access, and high-speed network infrastructure, shore-to-ship engagement is
decreasing. The digitizing of data and other developing technologies necessitate the adoption of
new traffic management techniques by VTS.
VTS, like autonomous ships, is an emerging disruptive technology that will influence the
marine sector. Autonomous ships will not suddenly materialise on the high seas but rather come
gradually (Pribyl & Weigel, 2018). As technology advances and establishes an error-free track
record, an increasing number of autonomous ships with decreased crews will take to the seas.
Consequently, it is predicted that staffed ships would operate alongside autonomous or remotely
operated unmanned ships (Baldauf et al., 2018). The situations with mixed traffic look
particularly hard for future traffic control techniques. As such, it is important to comprehend the
case studies under the premise of autonomous ships including MUNIN and Revolt.
Case Study Projects
MUNIN
The European Commission (EC) established and financed Maritime Unmanned
Navigation through Intelligence in Networks (MUNIN) in 2012, and the project was concluded
in 2015 (MUNIN, n.d.). Over the course of three years, the collaboration included eight scholarly
and commercial partners from Germany, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, and Ireland. MUNIN's
mission was to explore and validate the idea of autonomous commercial ships. Partners in
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research were responsible for the practical and regulatory components of the project. While
industrial collaborators handled the many business sectors of the shipping supplier market and
ensured a strong relationship with market needs, the ship supplier market was analyzed
(MUNIN, n.d.). According to Rødseth, and Nordahl (2017), an unmanned merchant ship is a
kind of commercial autonomous system. Following a methodical but pragmatic strategy for the
system's architectural shape, it must be dependable and cost-effective. The diagram (see Figure
1) indicates the MUNIN project summary.
Figure 1: MUNIN project summary (MUNIN, 2016)
MUNIN ideas include new sensor systems, the latest innovative operation and repair
processes, autonomous navigation capabilities, and a new shore command centre (SCC), among
other components. The most crucial aspect of the initiative was the creation of an infrastructure
that interconnected all the new components. Its concerns include managing the program's safety
and security limits as well as the very dynamic quality of service (QoS) for ship-to-shore
messaging services (Rødseth, & Nordahl, 2017). The MUNIN case study examined a dry cargo
transport with a deadweight tonnage of 75,000 and a service speed of 16 knots that operated
autonomously in transcontinental tramp markets (MUNIN, nd.). The submarine only operated
autonomously on deep-sea voyages. In crowded seas and when entering and departing ports, the
ship was under the responsibility of the captain. The goal was for the ship to be unmanned and
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independent from crew drop-off to captain pick-up (MUNIN, 2016). When necessary, there may
be repair crews or other workers on board. During the voyage, an emergency control team (ECT)
may be required if major difficulties arise. ECTs are able to board and depart from transit boats
and aircraft (Rødseth, & Nordahl, 2017). Figure 4 illustrates how the idea of MUNIN's
autonomous vessel might function.
Figure 2: MUNIN project in Maritime Unmanned Navigation (MUNIN, 2016)
The research indicated that by providing a good operational and resilient system, the
probability of collision and faltering may be reduced tenfold compared to manned ships, mostly
as a result of eliminating fatigue. In addition, the likelihood of engine and other system failures
should be reduced for unmanned vessels provided sufficient redundancy is installed and
enhanced repair and surveillance procedures are followed. Utilizing more effective extinguishing
systems in completely enclosed areas may lower the risk of fire and explosion (MUNIN, 2016).
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Moreover, MUNIN's strategy of putting an autonomous acting system aboard boats permits the
implementation of fail-to-safe functionalities on board, which provide navigational and
operational safety during potential communication shutdowns.
DNV GL - Revolt
In August of 2013, DNV GL began a research project titled "The ReVolt" (see Figure 2).
It was introduced the next year, in 2014. The organisation is an international certifying authority
that focuses on evaluation, risk mitigation, advisory functions, and technical assistance (DNV
GL, n.d.-a). The ReVolt is a hypothetical ship that would be entirely autonomous and controlled
by a battery system. Due to its limited energy, it is intended for 100-nautical-mile-long
excursions before the battery has to be replenished. Batteries would lower operational expenses
by reducing the amount of high-maintenance elements, such as peripherals. Especially if the ship
is refuelled with renewable energy, the ship's emissions would be much lower (DNV GL, n.d.-b).
Figure 3: ReVolt electrical connection by DNV GL-b (Emad, Kahbir, and Shahbakhsh, 2020, p.
6)
From the above analysis, it is imperative to assert that the fundamental objective of the
DNV- ReVolt project was to reduce the burden on land-based logistical networks. This would
substantially reduce operational expenses and improve marine safety operations by reducing
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accidents. Moreover, their project was centred on the supply of a conceptual framework that
might enhance the conveyance of short rivers inside urban zones. DNV GL proposed a solution
to this problem by transitioning to a battery-powered propulsion system and autonomous control
of the ship. Reducing crew cabins boosted the ship's available capacity and decreased its
operational expenses dramatically. Adopting the battery-propulsion systems and separating the
revolving sections of the system helped them lower the ship maintenance cost. Due to these cost
benefits, it was estimated that the ReVolt project would save around $1 million per year in
operating expenditures and nearly $34 million after 30 years of service (DNV GL, n.d.). Even if
the project's cost-benefit analysis is noteworthy for the future of maritime transportation,
adopting current batteries is not a viable answer for transoceanic trips.
Research Gaps
On the basis of the ideas provided in the two case study projects, it is projected that
existing autonomous operations will not be sufficient to support the suggested theories.
Consequently, it is essential to identify areas for improvements or opportunities for ships to
adapt their efficiency to meet future demands. This section highlights the gaps (weaknesses and
threats) by utilising important aspects that might impact autonomous shipping activities and
detract from its existing strengths. As technology advances, nations throughout the world have
realised the great potential that automated systems represent. By 2023, Rolls-Royce expects to
launch a project to construct an autonomous cargo vessel that can be watched and operated from
a central location, together with other ships, as necessary. The MUNIN project of the United
Nations intends to establish operational and technological ideas for unmanned ships, as well as
investigate the legal, financial, and scientific elements of the concept. Their strategy included the
use of a typical dry bulk transporter.
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The project begins by establishing the concept for the many technological components
necessary to automate such a vessel. Second, a cost-benefit analysis, a legal and liability
analysis, and a safety and security analysis are presented to demonstrate the advantages of
unmanned shipping. Thirdly, they define the technical units employed in the project and the
acquired abilities for each unit during the project plan. Crewing costs are a significant element in
the cost of dry bulk transportation and provide their perspective on the constraints of unmanned
sailing (Munim, 2019). The MARIN institution initiated trials to evaluate the safety, control, and
design of autonomous vessels' crucial phases. Although the trials are presently being designed, it
is anticipated that the analyses will be conducted this year. As the globe progresses towards
automation, it remains to be seen how this will affect the shipping business. Considering the vast
implications and possibilities of automation on fleet operating processes and the shipping
industry as a whole, this is an essential and pertinent issue for study.
Research Aim and Objectives
This study's main aim is to evaluate the possibilities of adopting autonomous watercraft
in the future. The paper examines current breakthroughs in maritime transportation, underlying
difficulties, and the potential impact of autonomous ships on marine commerce. Specifically, the
study's objectives are narrowed down as follows:
I.
Examine the contribution of autonomous ships to maritime technology and the
prospect of their future deployment.
II.
To examine the obstacles confronting autonomous ships in the commercial and
military sectors.
III.
To assess the economic advantages of autonomous ships in maritime technology.
IV.
To evaluate the environmental effects of unmanned maritime technology vessels.
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Research Questions
The study will seek to offer answers to the underlying research concerns based on the
study objectives:
I.
II.
III.
What is the destiny of autonomous ships in the commercial and military sectors?
What obstacles do autonomous ships face in the maritime sector?
What technical improvements are currently being made to autonomous ships?
Project Plan
Proposed Project Title: Are Autonomous Ships The Right Approach For The Future?
Research Hypothesis
Study hypotheses are essential for answering the aforementioned research questions and
evaluating the research goals. The researcher's interest in the issue drove the formulation of
hypotheses for this investigation. The study's hypotheses are thus:

H0: Autonomous vessels are the optimal solution for future commercial and military
industries.

H1: Autonomous vessels are not the optimal solution for future commercial and military
industries.

H0: Future adoption of autonomous ships is contingent upon past exposure knowledge,
human error, and desire to board, safety, cost, and cyber-attacks.

H1: Future adoption of autonomous ships is not contingent upon past exposure
knowledge, human error, and desire to board, safety, cost, and cyber-attacks.

H0: Autonomous ships will have a significant effect on the present situation of the
maritime sector.

H1: Autonomous ships will have insignificant effect on the present situation of the
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maritime sector.
Proposed Methodology
There are two different kinds of research methodology approaches: the deductive and the
inductive techniques. A deductive procedure emphasises the "top-down" methodology, in which
the researcher develops a theoretical study of a subject before testing particular hypotheses
(Pandey, 2019, p. 47). Eventually, the hypothesis is proven via observations of the assumptions.
In contrast, the inductive technique, according to Saunders et al. (Pandey, 2019, p. 47), begins by
collecting data to explore an event, and then generates or builds the theory. In this study, the
researcher will use a deductive method by first studying the current literature on autonomous
ships and then putting the hypotheses to the test via surveys.
Research Design
The research design relates to the kind of the inquiry being conducted, which might be
qualitative or quantitative. In non-quantitative research pertaining to experiences, ideas,
sentiments, and emotions, qualitative methods are often applied. In contrast, the quantitative
design is used when the research includes the quantitative examination of data that may be
quantitatively modified (Creswell, 2013, p.147). Mixed method, according to Creswell (2013,
p.147), is a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Since the purpose of the
study is to investigate the viability of autonomous ships in maritime transits, the researcher
selected a mixed methodology. The researcher considered that using a mixed methodology
would aid in elucidating the study questions and testing the hypotheses.
Experiments/ Measurements to be Observed
The researcher will use primary data gathering techniques for this investigation. Such
professionals as merchants and navies, as well as those engaged in the design, engineering, and
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construction of autonomous ships, will provide the main data. The data will be gathered via a
series of online surveys using Qualtrics XM software based on marine science professionals in
order to offer an overview of the possible future advantages of using these ships. Using a
snowball non-probability sampling strategy, the researcher will gather data through surveys and
questionnaires (see Appendix A).
Statistical Testing
The data will be evaluated using SPSS v.21, and test statistics will be used to assess the
findings and validate the hypotheses. These t-values will be used to clarify whether the obtained
data supported or refuted the hypotheses, and the results will be displayed in different tables. To
examine the claims, the investigator will use the Independent t-test, Chi-squared testing, and
Kruskal Wallis Test.
Resources Required
The resources required for this research will comprise of:
I.
Access to credible peer-reviewed articles to form a comprehensive research paper.
II.
Access to the Mariners and staffs to through emails to send Questionnaire links.
III.
Means of creating and distributing the questionnaire, via Qualtrics XM software.
IV.
Questionnaire and consent forms.
V.
VI.
VII.
Ethic form
Means of time
SPSS v.21 software.
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Research Timeline
The Gantt chart below displays a timescale of when each task of the project will be conducted across a time scale of seven months.
Tasks
Background Science Research
Formulation of Project Plan
Pre-data Gathering and Report Writing
Construction/Distribution of Questionnaire
Experiment Preparations
Collection and Statistical Analysis
Execution of Experiment
Statistical analysis (Experiment)
Critical Analysis of Data Sets
Report Write-up/Concluding Statements
Proof Reading of Dissertation
Submission
22-Nov
22-Dec
22-Jan
22-Feb
22-Mar
22-Apr
22-May
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Reference List
Baldauf, M., Kitada, M., Mehdi, R., & Dalaklis, D. (2018). E-Navigation, Digitalization and
Unmanned Ships: Challenges for Future Maritime Education and Training. Proceedings of
INTED 2018 Conference (pp. 9525-9530). 5th-7th March 2018, Valencia, Spain.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323701325.
Creswell, J. (2013) Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches.
Sage publications.
DNV GL. (n.d.-a) Our History. Available at: https://www.dnvgl.com/about/in-brief/ourhistory.html (Accessed: 05 November 2022).
DNV GL. (n.d.-b). Technology and Innovation. The ReVolt - A new inspirational ship concept.
Available at: https://www.dnvgl.com/technology-innovation/revolt/index.html (Accessed: 05
November 2022).
Emad, G.R., Khabir, M. and Shahbakhsh, M. (2020) ‘January. Shipping 4.0 and training
seafarers for the future autonomous and unmanned ships’, In Proceedings of the 21th Marine
Industries Conference (MIC2019), Qeshm Island, Iran (pp. 1-2).
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338395285_Shipping_40_and_Training_Seafarers_for
_the_Future_Autonomous_and_Unmanned_Ships#read
Fan, C., Montewka, J. and Zhang, D. (2021) ‘Towards a framework of operational-risk
assessment for a maritime autonomous surface ship,’ Energies, 14(13), p. 3879.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en14133879
Höyhtyä, M. and Martio, J. (2020) ‘Integrated satellite–terrestrial connectivity for autonomous
ships: Survey and future research directions,’ Remote Sensing, 12(15), p.2507.
IALA. (2016). Vessel Traffic Services Manual. VTS Manual Edition 6. International Association
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of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities.
Mehta, R. et al. (2021) ‘Are passengers willing to ride on autonomous cruise-ships?’ Maritime
Transport Research, 2(1), p.100014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.martra.2021.100014
Munim, Z.H. (2019) Autonomous ships: a review, innovative applications and future maritime
business models. In Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal (Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 266279). Taylor & Francis.
MUNIN. (2016). The Autonomous Ship. http://www.unmanned-ship.org/munin/about/theautonomus-ship/
MUNIN. (n.d.). Research in maritime autonomous systems project Results and technology
potentials (Final Brochure). Retrieved from http://www.unmanned-ship.org/munin/wpcontent/uploads/2016/02/MUNIN-final-brochure.pdf
Pandey, Jatin. "Deductive approach to content analysis." In Qualitative techniques for workplace
data analysis, pp. 145-169. IGI Global, 2019.
Pribyl, S., & Weigel, A. (2018). Autonomous Vessels: How an Emerging Disruptive Technology
Is Poised to Impact the Maritime Industry Much Sooner Than Anticipated. The Journal of
Robotics, Artificial Intelligence & Law, 17-25.
Rødseth, Ø., & Nordahl, H. (2017). Definitions for Autonomous Merchant Ships. Norwegian
Forum for Autonomous Ships (NFAS). Available at: http://nfas.autonomousship.org/resources/autonom-defs.pdf (Accessed: 05 November 2022).
Wróbel, K., Montewkab, J., & Kujalac, P. (2017) ‘Towards the assessment of potential impact of
unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety,’ Reliability Engineering and System Safety
165(1), pp. 155-169. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.029 (Accessed: 5
November 2022).
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Wróbel, K., Montewkab, J., & Kujalac, P. (2017) ‘Towards the assessment of potential impact of
unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety’, Reliability Engineering and System Safety
165(1), pp. 155-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.029
Xie, P. et al. (2021) ‘Optimization-based power and energy management system in shipboard
microgrid: A review’, IEEE Systems Journal. 16 (1), pp. 578-590.
https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2020.3047673
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Appendix A
Survey Questionnaire
1. How old are you?
2. What gender, are you?
3. What is your educational level?
4. Are you corporate or military?
5. How long have you been in service?
6. Which ship type have you worked on?
7. Have you ever heard of autonomous vessels?
8. Have you ever witnessed an autonomous vessel in operation?
9. Would you be ready to aboard a self-navigating ship?
10. Would you be ready to pilot a self-navigating ship?
11. Do you believe autonomous ships are the future's best solution?
12. Do you believe that autonomous ships will be safer than human-made vessels?
13. Human mistake has been the primary cause of several accidents; do you believe
autonomous ships can solve this issue?
14. Do you believe maritime sector employees will be pleased with the changes that
autonomous ships will bring?
15. How will the deployment of autonomous ships affect the future of the maritime sector?
16. Given the present condition of the maritime sector, do you believe it is prepared to
confront the problems of shifting roles in order to implement autonomous vessels?
17. Do you think this strategy will be cost-effective (less expensive)?
18. Are you aware of autonomous naval vessels?
19. Do you believe this strategy will help military sailors who spend too much time at sea?
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20. How deadly (destructive) may this kind of military equipment be?
21. Could this system save many lives of individuals serving aboard battleships during a
conflict?
22. Could the unmanned (completely autonomous) nature of this innovation generate further
problems amongst military units?
23. Do you feel this strategy will be cost-effective (less expensive) for the military and navy?
24. Do you think cyber-attacks to be a significant danger to innovation?