Robert Pollin Department of Economics-U Mass-Amherst 313 Gordon Hall 413-577-0819 Email: pollin@econs.umass.edu Office Hours: 12:30 – 2 pm Monday and Wednesday and by appt. ECONOMICS 104: INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS Spring 2023 COURSE SYLLABUS Macroeconomics is a hugely important subject to study, because it provides us with a foundation for understanding a good share of the most pressing social and economic issues of our present time-period as well as previous time periods. Consider, for example, our recent experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic. Of course, this was a global health care crisis. But it was also a macroeconomic crisis, which led to the enactment of macroeconomic policy interventions on an historically unprecedented scale, both in the U.S. and globally. As one measure of this: in the 18 months from when COVID began spreading in the U.S., i.e. from March 2020 to September 2021, roughly 90 million people in the U.S. lost their jobs and filed for unemployment insurance. This is over half of the entire U.S. workforce. Moreover, these unemployment figures would have been much higher still in the absence of the macroeconomic policy interventions that were advanced. These interventions included spending injections into the economy by the federal government and Federal Reserve purchases of private financial assets (e.g. stocks and bonds) in U.S. financial markets— i.e. Wall Street. These were bailout measures for a sinking economy that amounted to roughly one-third of the overall size of the economy (as measured by Gross Domestic Product—“GDP”). As a result of this federal government policy intervention, U.S. government debt held outside government agencies now amounts to $24.5 trillion, roughly equal to total GDP. How should we interpret such seemingly astronomical figures? Is the U.S. government teetering on the brink of default? Attempting to answer questions like these lies at the heart of what we consider in macroeconomics. The U.S. government’s debt level connects to another theme at the center of macroeconomics, which is the operation of financial markets. Beginning in 2008, the United States economy, and global economy more broadly, were clobbered by the Great Recession, the most severe economic crisis since the 1930s Depression. This experience raises one of the most important big questions in macroeconomics. That is, why do economies, and the U.S. economy in particular, experience swings from growth to financial instability and recession, with unemployment rates falling and rising along with these swings? Similarly, why do overall prices in the economy rise (inflation) and fall (deflation)? Over the past year, the inflation rate in the U.S. and globally reached 40-year highs. Why is this, and what, if anything, should be done about it? We equally need to consider a longer-term pattern in which average pay levels for U.S. workers have stagnated over the past 50 years while the U.S. stock market has risen to unprecedented heights. These patterns have generated a huge increase in both income and wealth inequality. What is behind all these patterns? We will also consider still broader questions in this course. Economics is a moral science. We need to emphasize both terms—issues of morality, along with the demands of science. Consider the environment, for example. In principle, everyone says they support protecting the environment, and most people believe we need to control global climate change. But even some who believe that say the economic costs of protecting the environment will be huge—that we can cut back on greenhouse gas emissions, for example, but only by slowing down the economy and throwing people out of work. What Syllabus for Economics 104: Intro. to Macroeconomics Prof. Robert Pollin Spring 2023—U Mass Amherst Page 2 is the scientific evidence on these points? what our moral position might be? How would the scientific evidence either support or change Here is the general point: the topics we will cover in this course are all about the social, political, and environmental as well as economic issues around you. Assuming you care at all about this world of ours, you will definitely find lots of things of interest in this course, unless I am an incredibly boring teacher. And even then, the excitement of the subject should still shine through my failings in presenting it to you. So let’s go at it and have some fun! Oh yes, there is also some work here…as in: REQUIREMENTS There will be different types of assignments throughout the course. This way, everyone will have lots of chances to do well, with both at-home and in-class assignments. The assignments include: 1. Regular Discussion Papers (20 percent of grade). There will be six short paper assignments that will be spaced throughout the course. These papers should be no more than 400-600 words (i.e. 1-2 pages long, single spaced). Other than the first assignment—which is an exercise in thinking about the economy—they will be based on your reading and thinking about some specific issue in one or more of your reading assignments. We will provide more details on the assignments when we give them out. The schedule for these assignments is below. These assignments should also be helpful to you in thinking about your term paper, described below. The papers will need to be typed, printed, and handed in at the beginning of your section meetings, as noted below, or presented to your TAs through some means mutually agreed upon before the due date/time. Short paper #1 Short paper #2 Short paper #3 Short paper #4 Short paper #5 Short paper #6 Date assigned February 6 February 22 March 8 April 3 April 19 May 1 Date Due February 17 in sections March 3 in sections March 24 in sections April 14 in sections April 28 in sections May 12 in sections The grading of these assignments will be as follows: the first two papers will be graded pass/revise/fail. You will have an opportunity to revise these papers until they are at a passing level. You must complete these assignments with a pass. The final four assignments will be graded. Your average grade for these four papers will count for 20 percent of your overall grade. 2. In-Class Midterm Examination (20 percent of grade). This will be held in class on Monday, March 27 3. Final Examination (30 percent of grade). This will be a comprehensive exam. Date to be determined. 4. Term Paper (25 percent of grade). This will be due when you come to take your final exam. This will be on a topic of your choosing from a list that we will provide. The paper should be roughly 1,600 words in text (i.e. excluding references), or about 4 single-spaced typed pages. 2 Syllabus for Economics 104: Intro. to Macroeconomics Prof. Robert Pollin Spring 2023—U Mass Amherst Page 3 5. Participation (5 percent). I do not require attendance at either lectures or sections. But we will keep track of attendance at sections. More importantly, people who participate in lectures and especially section discussions will be rewarded. Note that five percent of a grade may not seem like a lot. But it is the difference, for example, between a borderline A and a B. TEACHING ASSISTANTS FOR THE COURSE I am happy to be working with Sophia Normark, Shady Nasheed, William Chaney, Arpita Biswas, and Kayode Salandy. You will have one of them leading your sections. You will benefit a lot by coming to the sections they will lead and paying close attention to the material they are giving you. TA contact information has also been posted to the Moodle. Sophia Normark is also the Head TA for the course. She will be actively involved in managing all administrative matters for the course. You should contact Sophia about all administrative matters. The email addresses for the course TAs are: Sophia Normark <snormark@umass.edu>; Shady Lawendy<slawendy@umass.edu>; William Chaney <wchaney@umass.edu>; Arpita Biswas <arpitabiswas@umass.edu>; and Kayode Salandy (ksalandy@umass.edu>. READINGS I have ordered two books for the course. They are: David Colander, Macroeconomics, 11th edition (hereafter “Colander”). This is the main textbook for the course. It can be purchased through E-Campus: https://umass.ecampus.com/course-list.asp?autocourselist=1&c=|4147198|4204298&s=142793&missing= Dollars & Sense, Real World Macro, 39st Edition. This collection of short articles gives an alternative perspective on a wide range of macro issues. It is available either through Collective Copies in downtown Amherst or online through Leveller’s Press, at: https://levellerspress.com/product/real-worldmacro/ There are also additional readings which we will distribute online, as well as online video interviews and discussions. These should all help you to make sense of the material under consideration—and as such, will help you with the exams as well. COURSE OUTLINE PLEASE NOTE: The amounts of time and specific dates allotted to each topic are my best approximations for now. The course will develop its own natural rhythm, and that could differ somewhat from what I have outlined. Nevertheless, the dates for all assignments and exams are firm. 1. Introduction: What is the course about? What is macroeconomics about? (February 6; 1 class). Colander Ch. 1, esp. pp. 11 - 20. 2. Big Macro Questions: Unemployment, Inflation, Economic Crises, Inequality: Intro Students? (February 8; 1 class). Too Hard for 3 Syllabus for Economics 104: Intro. to Macroeconomics Prof. Robert Pollin Spring 2023—U Mass Amherst Page 4 --- First glance at Colander, Ch. 12 --- First glance at Robert Pollin and Gerald Epstein, “Neoliberalism’s Bailout Problem,” Boston Review, https://bostonreview.net/articles/neoliberalisms-bailout-problem/ --- First glance at Pollin, Back to Full Employment, pp. 39 – 52. --- Alternative perspectives on current employment and inflation: Josh Bivens, “Learning the Right Lessons from Recent Inflation,” https://prospect.org/economy/2023-01-10-lessons-inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rates/ Larry Summers, “What To Do Next on Inflation,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/19/larry-summers-fed-inflation-next-steps/ “Powell Says Fed Will Not Change 2% Inflation Target,” https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/powell-says-fed-will-not-change-2-inflation-goal-2022-12-14/ Robert Pollin and Hanae Bouazza,” 2% Inflation Targeting Harms Growth,” https://prospect.org/economy/2023-01-05-two-percent-inflation-targeting-harms-growth/ CP Chandrashakar and Jayati Ghosh, “Inflation in an Unequal World Economy,” https://prospect.org/economy/2023-01-12-inflation-unequal-world-economy/ 3. Economics as a Moral Science (February 13 - 15; 2 classes) --- Colander, Ch. 3 and 106 – 108. --- Real World Macro, Articles 1.3, 4.5 --- Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim, “Why Fast-Food Employers Can Adjust to a $15 Minimum Wage without Shedding Jobs” http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/sites/default/files/ssn-key-findings-pollin-and-wicks-limon-a-15-minimum-wage.pdf --- Robert Pollin, “Hiking the Minimum Wage is to $15 is Key—But it is Hardly a Living Wage, Truthout, 3/7/21, https://truthout.org/articles/hiking-the-minimum-wage-to-15-is-key-but-itshardly-a-living-wage/ --- Tim Worstall, “Truly Terrible Research on Increasing the Minimum Wage to $15 an Hour,” Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/04/14/truly-terrible-research-in-increasing-theminimum-wage-to-15-an-hour/#7f4334636e6b --- NY Times Room for Debate, “Can the Minimum Wage be Too High? http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/06/04/can-the-minimum-wage-be-too-high Videos: --- Milton Friedman Debates Michael Harrington, “Capitalism vs. Socialism” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOMI0ORGH44&NR=1 --- Noam Chomsky on Socialism http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4Tq4VE8eHQ&feature=related 4. Considering the Economy as a Whole (February 22 – March 8; 5 classes) A) National Income--Gross Domestic Product --- Colander, Ch. 7, pp. 148 - 71 --- Real World Macro, Article 2.2 B) Dividing Up GDP—Average Income, Inequality/Poverty, Racial and Gender Discrimination --- Real World Macro, Articles 2.5, 5.2--- N. Gregory Mankiw, “Yes, the Wealthy can be Deserving.” New York Times, 2-15-2014. 4 Syllabus for Economics 104: Intro. to Macroeconomics Prof. Robert Pollin Spring 2023—U Mass Amherst Page 5 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/business/yes-the-wealthy-can-bedeserving.html?smid=pl-share --- Paul Krugman, “Greg Mankiw and the Gatsby Curve,” 6-22-2013. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/22/greg-mankiw-and-the-gatsby-curve --- --- James Q. Wilson, “Angry about Inequality? Don’t Blame the Rich!” American Enterprise Institute, January 2012, http://www.aei.org/article/society-and-culture/poverty/angry-about-inequality-dontblame-the-rich/ --- Nancy Folbre, “The Caring Economy,” https://greattransition.org/publication/thecaring-economy --- Christina Hoff Sommers, “The Case Against Pay-Check Fairness Act,” American Enterprise Institute, 2012 http://www.aei.org/article/society-and-culture/race-and-gender/the-case-against-thepaycheck-fairness-act/ --- American Association of University Women, “The Simple Truth about the Gender Pay Gap” http://www.aauw.org/files/2015/09/The-Simple-Truth-Fall-2015.pdf Videos: -- Joseph Stiglitz vs. Martin Feldstein on Income Inequality, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1W4AtNRbkk -- Monika Queisser, on Gender Inequality https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE_5gGliIsM C) Economy and Environment --- Real World Macro, 6.5 --- Robert Pollin, How Do We Pay for a Zero Emissions Economy? American Prospect, https://prospect.org/greennewdeal/how-to-pay-for-a-zero-emissions-economy/ --- Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin, “Pushing a Viable Climate Project Around COP27,” Truthout, 10/23/22 https://truthout.org/articles/chomsky-and-pollin-pushing-a-viable-climate-project-aroundcop27/ --- Ryan Nunn et al., “Ten Facts about the Economics of Climate Change and Climate Policy,” https://www.brookings.edu/research/ten-facts-about-the-economics-of-climatechange-and-climate-policy/ -- The Economist, “What Would Different Levels of Global Warming Look Like?” https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/03/30/what-would-differentlevels-of-global-warming-look-like --- “Economists’ Statement on Carbon Dividends,” Wall Street Journal, 1/17/19, https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-statement-on-carbon-dividends-11547682910 SPRING BREAK—March 13 – 15; No Classes 5. Long-Run Growth and Stagnation (March 20 - 22; 2 classes) A) Overall Growth Patterns --- Colander, pp. 130 – 132, and Ch. 9. 5 Syllabus for Economics 104: Intro. to Macroeconomics Prof. Robert Pollin Spring 2023—U Mass Amherst Page 6 --- Robert Gordon, “Is Economic Growth Over?” https://voxeu.org/article/useconomic-growth-over --- Real World Macro, Article 3.2, 3.3 --- Leslie Carbone and Jay Richards, “The Economy Hits Home: What Makes the Economy Grow? Heritage Foundation http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/07/theeconomy-hits-home-what-makes-the-economy-grow B) U.S. Technical Change, Manufacturing and Industrial Policy --- Pollin, Back to Full Employment, pp. 109-118. IN CLASS MIDTERM EXAMINATION, MONDAY, MARCH 27 6. Unemployment and Inflation (March 29- April 10; 4 classes) --- Colander, Chs. 15 – 16, esp. pp. 326 – 335; and 345 – 353 and 358 – 62. --- Pollin, Back to Full Employment, pp. 15-36 --- Real World Macro, Articles 2.6, 2.7, 4.4, 4.7 --- Robert Pollin, “The Federal Reserve Attacks American Workers,” The Nation, 9/15/22, https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/inflation-federal-reserve-wages-working-class/ --- Inflation articles in Section 2 above, “Big Macro Questions.” 7. The Global Economy and Immigration (April 12 – 24; 3 classes) --- Colander, Chs. 17 - 18 --- MacEwan and Miller, Economic Collapse; Economic Change, Ch. 8 on China --- Real World Macro, Articles 9.3 – 9.4 --- Pollin, Back to Full Employment, Pollin, pp. 39 – 52. --- Daniel Costa, “Facts about Immigration and the U.S. Economy,” http://www.epi.org/publication/immigration-facts/ --- James Pethokoukis, “How Immigration Boosts American Economic Growth and Innovation,” http://www.aei.org/publication/how-immigration-boosts-american-economic-growth-andinnovation/ ---“Do Immigrants Take Jobs from American-Born Workers?” NY Times symposium, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/01/06/do-immigrants-take-jobs-from-americanborn-workers Videos: --- Gerald Epstein, “China and the United States” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri2hd4w72vI --- The Economist, “How Immigrants Can Help Save Dying Cities” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVnDtqvjBbY --- “Bill O’Reilly”—Immigrants Take Jobs” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMu7_83qbas 8. Fiscal Policies and the Federal Government Budget (April 26 – May 3; 3 classes) --- Colander, Chs. 13 - 14 --- Real World Macro, Articles 6.1, 6.3 --- Robert Pollin, “The Deficit is Exploding and That’s a Good Thing,” The Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/deficit-stimulus-fiscal-borrowing/ 9. Financial Markets and Monetary Policy (May 8 – 15; 3 classes). 6 Syllabus for Economics 104: Intro. to Macroeconomics Prof. Robert Pollin Spring 2023—U Mass Amherst Page 7 --- Colander, Chs. 10 – 11 --- Real World Macro, Articles 7.1, 7.2 --- Gerald Epstein, The Bankers Club, section on cryptocurrencies Videos: --- Gerald Epstein, “The Future of the Fed” http://vimeo.com/22978498 --- Paul Krugman, “Economic Meltdown: What Have We Learned, if Anything?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJ4oCO9UK7U 10. Where are we? Where do we go from here? (May 17; 1 class). --- Colander, Ch. 12 (re-read) --- Robert Pollin and Gerald Epstein, “Neoliberalism’s Bailout Problem,” Boston Review (reread) https://bostonreview.net/articles/neoliberalisms-bailout-problem/ FINAL EXAM: Date, time and place to be announced. 7