INTRODUCTION:
LEADERSHIP,
UNCERTAINTY,
AND DECISION
MAKING IN
ORGANIZATIONS
ATTENDANCE TAKING
Please make sure that you have your place card
(with your name BIG + CLEAR) in front of you.
2
LET US GET TO KNOW SOMEONE NEW
 Get up and stand next to one of the people you know the ‘least’ in the room.
 DO NOT CONNECT until I give you further direction.
Source: Dutton, J. Building high quality connections at lightening speed.
http://positiveorgs.bus.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/Dutton-BuildingHQC-AOM2012-TeachingPOS-handout.pdf
LET US GET TO KNOW SOMEONE NEW
 Take turns to energetically speak (60 seconds)
 Who you are (name, major)
 What gets you excited about this semester?
 Take turns to affirmatively listen (60 seconds)
 Show that you pay attention
 Endorse and enable what you hear
Source: Dutton, J. Building high quality connections at lightening speed.
http://positiveorgs.bus.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/Dutton-BuildingHQC-AOM2012-TeachingPOS-handout.pdf
TAKE THE CONVERSATION A LITTLE DEEPER…
(Select one)
 Given a choice of anyone in the world, who would you
want as a dinner guest?
 Would you like to be famous? In what way?
 When did you last sing to yourself? To someone else?
Aron, A., Melinat, E., Aron, E. N., Vallone, R. D., & Bator, R. J. (1997). The experimental generation of interpersonal closeness: A procedure and some preliminary findings. Personality and
Social Psychology Bulletin, 23(4), 363-377.
CHOOSE YOUR PROJECT TEAMS!
 Form 9 groups of 5 members each
 Inform Yizhen once you have formed your team
 If you do not have a team, let Yizhen know and she will assist you
AGENDA FOR TODAY
▪ Admin matters and overview of MNO2705F
▪ Get to know your team members
▪ Understand some “common sense” of decision making
▪ Obtain and experience the challenges of decision making
▪ Plan for the next class
7
ADMIN MATTERS
8
CLASS FORMAT
▪ Everyone is expected to be physically present in class for all the sessions
Teaching in NUS has returned to “100% face-to-face with no
hybrid/virtual arrangements or recording for later viewing by students”
▪ If you have a valid reason to miss the class (e.g., MC, SHN, LOA) please email me and
Yizhen before the class
9
COURSE OUTLINE
10
MODULE OVERVIEW
MODULE OUTLINE
READINGS
 Kahneman, D. (2013). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux (recommended)
 All readings will be made available on CANVAS or available in the NUS online library
ASSESSMENT
14
CLASS PARTICIPATION (20%)
▪ 50% Attendance, 50% In-class participation
▪ Focused on how you enhance the learning of your peers
▪ Assessment criteria emphasises presence, participation, contribution of ideas, and collegiality
▪ Quantity and quality
INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT (30%)
▪ Wednesday, 19 October 2022, 7 – 9pm
▪ This assessment provides you an opportunity to demonstrate your understanding of
and ability to work with course concepts and frameworks. It covers the subjectmatter from class and assigned readings.
▪ Please note that there will not be any option of a concurrent online assessment
available. This applies to ALL students enrolled in the module.
▪ Your instructor will provide you further details nearer the date of the assessment.
DECISION CHALLENGE TEAM PROJECT (50%)
▪
Identify and investigate a challenging decision situation or topic that has received attention in the popular
press within the last 5 years. This challenge may be one that a specific organization faces at a specific point
in time (e.g., A specific Facebook policy decision based on research/ experiments with users) or an
endemic challenge that organizations face (e.g., ineffective hiring decisions; low representation of women at
higher organizational levels). The decision situation or topic that your team chooses should be one that:
▪
is Asia-relevant
▪
you are curious and passionate about
▪
you believe is important and provides an opportunity for learning
▪
involve aspects of uncertainty and risk
DECISION CHALLENGE TEAM PROJECT (50%)
▪ Recommended steps to proceed (For Option 1 – Challenge at a specific point)
1) Choose a decision situation and explain how it came about
2) Craft an appropriate question statement based on the chosen decision situation (not too
small and not too big).
3) Identify the key players involved and analyze how these players fare from the standpoint of
the essentials for effective decision making. You will want to be systematic in covering
potential threats to effective decision making, including biases, heuristics, group processes,
ethical concerns, etc.
4) Provide recommendations/suggestions to improve the decision-making processes if
accordingly.
AN EXAMPLE/GUIDELINE
1.
Choose a decision situation and explain how it came about
The Japan Government is faced with a dilemma on whether they should proceed with the Olympics or
postpone it. This is a big dilemma due to the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19…
2.
Craft a question statement appropriate for team project (not too small not too big)
Whether the Japan Government was right to continue with the Olympics instead of cancelling it
AN EXAMPLE/GUIDELINE
3. Identify the key players involved and analyze how these players fare from the
standpoint of the essentials for effective decision making.
The main decision maker would be the Japan Government including Tokyo Organizing
Committee of the Olympic (TOCOG). The stakeholders include International Olympic
Committee (IOC) headed by Thomas Bach, participating athletes and the people of Japan….
Essentials for effective decision making in that situation
 Critical Thinking: Evaluation of pros and cons of the limited choices available
 Adaptability: Uncertainty of the pandemic may lead to unexpected changes
 ……
AN EXAMPLE/GUIDELINE
Potential threats to effective decision making in that situation (e.g., biases and heuristics)
 Committee has already collected large spoEscalation of commitment: The organising
nsorship fees and invested great effort into planning the games since 2013. The initial
proposed $7.5 billion budget has been exceeded and is currently at $3 trillion, making it
history’s most expensive summer olympics. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the
pandemic, the Tokyo government is still adamant on holding the games.
 ……
Conclusion of player’s decision-making effectiveness
4.
Recommendations/suggestions to improve the decision-making processes
DECISION CHALLENGE TEAM PROJECT (50%)
Recommended steps to proceed (For Option 2 – Endemic Challenge)
Focus on
1) The aspects of such decision situations that make decision failures all too prevalent, and
2) Best practices for avoiding such decision failures.
3) It will be important for you to draw on the experiences of a range of organizations in your
analysis.
TOPICS THAT ARE NOT ALLOWED
1MDB scandal
Banning of PMDs in Singapore
Censorship in China
China crackdown on technology companies
China hosting winter Olympics
China social credit system
China’s ban on waste imports
China's ban on surrogacy
China's gaming restrictions
China's population policy
China's tuition ban
City Harvest Church
Covid-19 related topics
Evergrande Debt Crisis in China
Gender Discrimination in Hiring
Grab-Uber Acquisition
GST hike
Hong Kong protest
Huawei crisis or ban
Indian Farmers Protest (2020-21)
Japan’s commercial whaling & decision to leave
IWC
Keppel Bribery Case
Kobe Steel Fraud
Maldives land reclamation
Mental health illness & combatting the stigma
Nagaenthran death penalty
North Korea food crisis
OCBC Phishing Scams (also Bank Phishing
Scams in Singapore
Philippines war on drugs
Raeesah Khan saga
Repeal Section 377A
Rohingya crisis
Rohingya Crisis
Samsung Note7 crisis
Sewol ferry disaster
Sexual Harassment in Organizations
SIA's responses to COVID-19 e.g. Flight to
Nowhere
Singapore Death Penalty
Singapore FICA law
Singapore-KL Rail
South Korea parole of Samsung heir
Sri Lanka’s ban on chemical fertilizers
Surrogacy in India
Taiwan same-sex marriage
Takata’s airbag scandal
Thai Caves rescue operations
Thailand legalising marijuana
TEPCO dumping of nuclear wastewater into
ocean
Tokyo Olympics
TraceTogether
Uighurs in China
Wang Lee Hom Scandal
War in Afghanistan
WeWork Crisis
Yale NUS-USP Merger (NUS College)
 Submit the Top 3 decision
situation/endemic challenge + Brief
question statement that your team
would like to work on via this link:
(please refer to the link that was sent to
you)
(One submission per team)
 Allocation of topics will be on a first-
come-first-serve basis (One
submission per team only)
 Deadline for submission is 5pm, 26
August 2022 (Fri)
DELIVERABLE 1: WRITTEN PROJECT PROPOSAL (5%)
 Your team will prepare a one-page formal project proposal that describes the decision
challenge that your team will work on, explaining why it is interesting and important, and the
methods or resources you will use in your analyses.
 1 single-spaced page, Times New Roman, 12-point font size, with a 1-inch margin on all sides
 Due date: 5 pm, 16 Sep 2022 (Fri)
 File should be named in this format: Team number_Team representative’s name (e.g. ,T5_Peter Tan
Yong Zhi_Proposal).
DELIVERABLE 2: PROJECT PRESENTATION (40%)
 Your team presentation will be scheduled for Week 11 or 12. Each team will have 15
minutes of presentation time, and there will be up to 10 minutes for Q&A. All group
members must present. If anyone is going to be not present, you must have a valid reason
that you need to discuss with the instructor.
DELIVERABLE 2: PROJECT PRESENTATION (40%)
 The formats of the presentation are flexible (e.g., a presentation with slides, videos, skits, talk shows,
games). Students should be reminded that the formats they choose should facilitate the effective
delivery of their project topics.
•
•
•
•
•
Clarity and effectiveness of presentation (30%)
Depth of analysis (30%)
Innovativeness of presentation (15%)
Adding value to audience learning and understanding of the topic (15%)
Quality of answers given by the team during the Q&A segment (10%)
 ALL teams must upload their presentation materials to the specified CANVAS folder by 5 pm, 23rd
Oct 2022 (Sun)
PEER ASSESSMENT (5%)
Your peers from other project teams will be asked to evaluate and assess your team’s performance.
They will provide you with feedback for improvement, as well as a score of up to 5 points.
 Upload the form to the specified
CANVAS folder by 5 pm, 3 Nov 2022
(Thu)
28
IMPORTANT DATES
Date
Task
5pm, 26 August 2022 (Fri)
Submit Top 3 Choices of Project Topic
30 August 2022 (Tue)
Receive Confirmation of Project Topic
5 pm, 16 Sep 2022 (Fri)
Submit Written Project Proposal
7 to 9 pm, 19th Oct 2022 (Wed)
Individual Assessment (Quiz)
5 pm, 23rd Oct 2022 (Sun)
Submit Presentation Materials (All teams)
In class, 25 Oct or 1 Nov 2022 (Tues)
Project Presentation
5 pm, 3 Nov 2022 (Thu)
Submit Peer Evaluation Form
29
ANY QUESTIONS?
30
MEET YOUR TEAM MEMBERS
31
GROUP PRESENTATION SEQUENCE
▪ https://www.jamestease.co.uk/team-generator/
On top: Present on 25 Oct
Order of presentation
Bottom: Present on 1 Nov
Order of presentation
TEAM SHARING
Self-introduction
 Introduce yourself to your team members
 You may use this opportunity to get the contact details of your team members
Story- sharing
▪ Share the story of a decision that you have made that you consider surprising in some respect
▪ Provide rich detail on the context of your decision, the factors that shaped your decision, and your
thoughts and feelings in making it.
QUESTION
Are leadership and decision making common sense?
ARE LEADERSHIP AND DECISION MAKING COMMON SENSE?
• Fluffy; can’t be taught; useless; I rather take finance modules
• “I was genuinely surprised by how much I enjoyed this module given my immense
hate for fluff….. And I felt that MNO can be applicable and non-fluffy, and that
the topic has actual substance and is worth discussing about.”
LEADERSHIP: DOES IT MATTER TO ORGANIZATIONS?
“I hated organizational behavior at business school. But OB turns out to be the
most important class you can take here. Because the ability to attract people, to
pay them the right way, to create culture and values and reinforce them, that’s what
makes companies great.”
Jeff Immelt, former CEO of General Electric in a speech at Harvard Business School
LEADERSHIP: DOES IT MATTER TO ORGANIZATIONS?
2006 Graduate Management Admission Council® survey of 1270
employers found that “soft skills” were most attractive to recruiters, but
also most lacking
DOES IT MATTER TO ME?
QUESTION
Does Ethics matter?
ETHICS: DOES IT MATTER?
Develop valuable skills
“Personal ethics and integrity” was listed as one of the three most important attributes recruiters
look for in student hires (Wall Street Journal, 2007)
1.
Communication and interpersonal skills
2.
Ability to work well within a team
3.
Personal ethics and integrity
…….
14. Content knowledge of the core curriculum
Hays (2014)
“[In Singapore] Employers view a candidate’s ethical behaviour as a non-negotiable…..[this] is
apparent across all industries, although it is most obvious in the banking sector.”
WHAT WE WILL COVER: MNO2705 COURSE MAP
Decision
making
challenges
Biases and
heuristics
Deciding
ethically
Ethical
foundation
Ethical
decision
making
Deciding in
groups
Group
decisions
Intergroup
decisions
Deciding with
errors and
future in mind
Error
management
Creativity,
innovation and
future (TBC)
Self-awareness
LEADERSHIP
Deciding
under
uncertainty
PRACTICE: LET US MAKE A DECISION
CASE EXERCISE: CARTER RACING
THE POCONO RACE
44
EXERCISE – CARTER RACING
▪ Read the case individually and make a note of your personal decision on whether you will
race or not.
45
EXERCISE – CARTER RACING
▪ In your team, discuss whether you will race or not as a team. Why?
If you have any questions, or need any help/information that
might be needed to come to a decision please ask me directly.
46
DEBRIEF
▪ What decision was made? What were the reasons for that decision?
▪ What processes did your group use for making a decision?
▪ What did it feel like to be a part of the group?
▪ How did you change your individual decision if you did?
▪ How did you try to change another member’s decision if you did?
47
PERFORMANCE DATA
▪ Racing Record
▪ 24 Races Entered
▪ 15 finished (63%); 9 not finished (37%)
▪ Races Finished
▪ 12 in Top 5 (50%)
▪ 3 not in Top 5 (13%)
▪ Races Not Finished
▪ 7 with blown engine (29%)
▪ 2 for other reasons (8%)
48
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND GASKET FAILURES
4
3
Breaks in
Head Gasket
During Each 2
Race
1
0
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Ambient Air Temperature
© 2015, 2012 by Jack W. Brittain and Sim B. Sitkin and distributed under license by the Dispute Resolution Research Center at Northwestern University. All rights reserved. Not to be reproduced, modified, stored, or transmitted without prior written
permission of the copyright holder or agent.
49
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND GASKET FAILURES
4
Relationship is “not significant,”
i.e., not different from zero
3
Breaks in
Head Gasket
During Each 2
Race
1
0
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Ambient Air Temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit)
© 2015, 2012 by Jack W. Brittain and Sim B. Sitkin and distributed under license by the Dispute Resolution Research Center at Northwestern University. All rights reserved. Not to be reproduced, modified, stored, or transmitted without prior written
permission of the copyright holder or agent.
50
EXPECTED VALUE CALCULATION
Outcome
Probability
Revenues
Expenses
Race:
Finish top 5
50%
(12/24)
1,000K tire
500K oil
+ 750K
Race:
Finish not top 5
13%
(3/24)
500K oil
+ 65K
Race:
Blow engine
29%
(7/24)
Race:
No finish other
8%
(2/24)
20K replace
engine
500K oil
Expected
value
- 5.8K
+ 40 K
809.2K
No race
100%
500K oil
7.5K refund
25K tire
482.5K
51
ISSUES ABOUT THE CASE
 Situational Pressures
 Time
 Money
 Limited data
 Quantitative VS “Gut”
 Visibility
 Data Sources
 Conflicting advice
 Inconsistent over time
Is there any other information
you would like to have?
 Varying source credibility
52
PATS PLOT OF AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE FOR RACES
4
3
Number 2
of Races
1
0
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Ambient Air Temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit)
© 2015, 2012 by Jack W. Brittain and Sim B. Sitkin and distributed under license by the Dispute Resolution Research Center at Northwestern University. All rights reserved. Not to be reproduced, modified, stored, or transmitted without prior written
permission of the copyright holder or agent.
53
FULL SAMPLE OF PREVIOUS RACES
Above 65
65 and Below
Gasket
Failure
3
4
No Gasket
Failure
17
0
Conditional Prob.
of Failure
15%
100%
54
1.0
PROBABILITY
OF BLOWN
GASKET
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Probability
of Incident
0.5
0.4
Logistic regression:
estimating the probability
of a failure as a function
of ambient temperature
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
30
40
50
60
70
Temperature
80
90
100
55
THIS CASE IS REAL
56
THE CHALLENGER DISASTER
 Exploded 73 seconds from launch
 All 7 crew members were killed
 Hot gases leaking from solid
rocker booster burned through
hydrogen/oxygen fuel tank
THE CHALLENGER DISASTER
 Deeply held and conflicting views about what to do
 Data on both sides of the issue were ambiguous, creating considerable technical
uncertainty
 Public pressure and visibility of the space shuttle program increase the high stakes
faced by the group
WATCH WHAT HAPPENS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O_DMyHdq_M&ab_channel=TheNewYorkTimes
DECISION FACTORS
Overconfidence
Confirmation bias
Framing (Loss vs gain)
Illusion of morality
Groupthink
Sunk costs
Anchoring
Status quo
Outcome bias
Group process issues
(advocacy vs inquiry)
60
RELEVANCE
TO ASIAN
CONTEXT
• The mega-earthquake triggered a catastrophic tsunami
in Japan in 2011 that killed 15,891 people. It also set off
a disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power
Plant, where three reactors melted down. Investigations
into what happened at the power plant concluded that
the nuclear disaster could have been prevented.
Not only were aspects of the plant’s designs not up to
standards outlined by international best practices, but
investigators concluded that officials had focused on the
threat of seismic activity without fully appreciating how
a resultant tsunami might affect the plant.
PERSPECTIVES
Decision making requires disciplined thinking – know what you don’t know
 Aware of faulty assumptions and decision biases
 Consider ethical implications
 Improve group processes
 Keep errors and future in mind
The best justification for a decision comes from the decision-making process
Leadership is about taking responsibility
PERSPECTIVES
“Good decisions come from experience.
Experience comes from bad decisions.”
“Those who cannot remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.”
“Every time history repeats itself
the price goes up”
NEXT SESSION
 Ethical foundations for Leadership
 Readings
 Ferrell, O. C., J. Fraedrich & L Ferrell (2017). Individual Factors: Moral Philosophies and Values.
(Chapter 6) In Ferrell, O. C., J. Fraedrich & L (Eds) Business Ethics: Ethical Decision Making
and Cases (p. 154-176). Singapore: Cengage Learning. (CANVAS)
 Sandel, M. (2009). What matters is the motive / Immanuel Kant. Chapter 5 In M. Sandel,
Justice: What’s the right thing to do? (pp. 103- 139) New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
(CANVAS)