APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA ELECTRONIC VERSION OF LECTURE Dr. Lê Xuân Đại HoChiMinh City University of Technology Faculty of Applied Science, Department of Applied Mathematics Email: ytkadai@hcmut.edu.vn HCMC — 2019. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 1 / 25 OUTLINE 1 MARKOV CHAINS Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 2 / 25 OUTLINE 1 MARKOV CHAINS 2 LEONTIEF INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 2 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains Many types of applications involve a n o finite set of state S 1, S 2, . . . , S n of a population. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 3 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains Many types of applications involve a n o finite set of state S 1, S 2, . . . , S n of a population. For instance, residents of a city may live downtown or in the suburbs. Soft drink consumers may buy Coca-Cola, Pepsi, or another brand. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 3 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains Many types of applications involve a n o finite set of state S 1, S 2, . . . , S n of a population. For instance, residents of a city may live downtown or in the suburbs. Soft drink consumers may buy Coca-Cola, Pepsi, or another brand. The probability that a member of a population will change ưfrom the j th state to the i th state is represented by a number p i j , where 0 É p i j É 1. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 3 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains DEFINITION 1.1 The matrix P = p 11 p 12 . . . p 1n p 21 p 22 . . . p 2n is called ... ... . . . ... p n1 p n2 . . . p nn the matrix of transition probabilities. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 4 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains DEFINITION 1.1 The matrix P = p 11 p 12 . . . p 1n p 21 p 22 . . . p 2n is called ... ... . . . ... p n1 p n2 . . . p nn the matrix of transition probabilities. At each transition, each member in a given state must either stay in that state or change to another state. It means that n P i =1 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) p i j = 1, ∀ j = 1..n. APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 4 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains DEFINITION 1.2 The n th state matrix of a Markov chain for which P is the matrix of transition probabilities and X 0 is the initial state matrix is X n = P X n−1 = P 2 X n−2 = . . . = P n X 0 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. (1) 5 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains EXAMPLE 1.1 (A CONSUMER PREFERENCE MODEL) Two competing companies offer satellite television service to a city with 100 000 households. The figure below shows the changes in satellite subscription each year. Company A now has 15 000 subscribers and Company B has 20 000 subscribers. How many subscribers will each company have in one year? After 10 year? After 15 year? Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 6 / 25 Markov Chains Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) Stochastic matrices and Markov chains APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 7 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains SOLUTION. The matrix of transition probabilities is 0.70 0.15 0.15 P = 0.20 0.80 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.70 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 8 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains SOLUTION. The matrix of transition probabilities is 0.70 0.15 0.15 P = 0.20 0.80 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.70 and the initial state matrix representing the portions of the in the 3 total population 15000 states is X 0 = 20000 . 65000 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 8 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains To find the state matrix representing the portions of the population in the 3 states in one year, multiply P by X 0 to obtain 0.70 0.15 0.15 15000 X 1 = P X 0 = 0.20 0.80 0.15 20000 = 0.10 0.05 0.70 65000 23250 = 28750 48000 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 9 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains To find the numbers of subscribers after 10 years, first find X 10 33290 X 10 = P 10 X 0 ≈ 47150 19570 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 10 / 25 Markov Chains Stochastic matrices and Markov chains To find the numbers of subscribers after 10 years, first find X 10 33290 X 10 = P 10 X 0 ≈ 47150 19570 To find the numbers of subscribers after 15 years, first find X 15 33330 X 15 = P 15 X 0 ≈ 47560 19110 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 10 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain Note. There is little difference between the numbers of subscribers after 10 years and after 15 years. If we continue this process, then the state matrix X n eventually reaches a steady state. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 11 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain Note. There is little difference between the numbers of subscribers after 10 years and after 15 years. If we continue this process, then the state matrix X n eventually reaches a steady state. DEFINITION 1.3 A stochastic matrix P is said to be regular if P or some positive power of P has all positive entries, and a Markov chain whose transition matrix is regular is said to be a regular Markov chain. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 11 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain THEOREM 1.1 If P is the transition matrix for a regular Markov chain, then There is a unique probability vector X , which is called the steady-state vector of the Markov chain, with positive entries such that P X = X . 1 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 12 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain THEOREM 1.1 If P is the transition matrix for a regular Markov chain, then There is a unique probability vector X , which is called the steady-state vector of the Markov chain, with positive entries such that P X = X . For any initial probability vector X 0, the sequence of state vectors X 0 , P X 0 , . . . , P n X 0 , . . . converges to X 1 2 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 12 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain EXAMPLE 1.2 Find the steady state matrix X of the Markov chain whose matrix of transition probabilities is the regular matrix 0.70 0.15 0.15 P = 0.20 0.80 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.70 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 13 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain x1 SOLUTION. Let X = x 2 . Then use the x3 matrix equation P X = X to obtain 0.70 0.15 0.15 x1 x1 0.20 0.80 0.15 x 2 = x 2 0.10 0.05 0.70 x3 x3 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 14 / 25 Markov Chains Steady State matrix of a Markov chain Use these equations and the fact that x 1 + x 2 + x 3 = 100000, we can find the steady state matrix X = Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) 100000 3 1000000 21 400000 21 33333 ≈ 47619 19048 APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 15 / 25 Leontief input-output models LEONTIEF INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS Consider an economic system that has n different industries I 1, I 2, . . . , I n , each having input needs (raw materials, utilities, etc.) and an output (finished product). In producing each unit of output, an industry may use the outputs of other industries, including itself. For example, an electric utility uses outputs from other industries, such as coal and water, and also uses its own electricity. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 16 / 25 Leontief input-output models Let di j be the amount of output the j th industry needs from the i th industry to produce one unit of output per year. The matrix of these coefficients is the input-output matrix d 11 d 12 d 21 p 22 D = .. ... . d n1 d n2 (0 É d i j É 1, ∀i , j = 1..n; Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) . . . d 1n . . . d 2n . . . . .. . . . d nn n P d i j É 1, ∀ j = 1..n). i =1 APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 17 / 25 Leontief input-output models FORMING AN INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX EXAMPLE 2.1 Consider a simple economic system consisting of 3 industries: electricity, water, and coal. Production, or output, of one unit of electricity requires 0.5 unit of itself, 0.25 unit of water, and 0.25 unit of coal. Production of one unit of water requires 0.1 unit of electricity, 0.6 unit of itself, and 0 units of coal. Production of one unit of coal requires 0.2 unit of electricity, 0.15 unit of water, and 0.5 unit of itself. Find the input-output matrix for this system. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 18 / 25 Leontief input-output models SOLUTION. The column entries show the amounts each industry requires from the others, and from itself, to produce one unit of output Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 19 / 25 Leontief input-output models SOLUTION. The column entries show the amounts each industry requires from the others, and from itself, to produce one unit of output 0.5 0.1 0.2 D = 0.25 0.6 0.15 0.25 0 0.5 The row entries show the amounts each industry supplies to the others, and to itself, for that industry to produce one unit of output. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 19 / 25 Leontief input-output models Let the total output of the i th industry be denoted by x i . If the economic system is closed (that is, the economic system sells its products only to industries within the system), then the total output of the i th industry is (2) xi = di 1 x1 + di 2 x2 + . . . + di n xn Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 20 / 25 Leontief input-output models If the industries within the system sell products to nonproducing groups (such as governments or charitable organizations) outside the system, then system is open and the total output of the i th industry is xi = di 1 x1 + di 2 x2 + . . . + di n xn + e 1 (3) where e i represents the external demand for the i th industry’s product. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 21 / 25 Leontief input-output models The collection of total outputs for an open system is x 1 = d 11 x 1 + d 12 x 2 + . . . + d 1n x n + e 1 x = d x +d x +...+d x +e 2 21 1 22 2 2n n 2 ... x n = d n1 x 1 + d n2 x 2 + . . . + d nn x n + e n Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 22 / 25 Leontief input-output models The collection of total outputs for an open system is x 1 = d 11 x 1 + d 12 x 2 + . . . + d 1n x n + e 1 x = d x +d x +...+d x +e 2 21 1 22 2 2n n 2 ... x n = d n1 x 1 + d n2 x 2 + . . . + d nn x n + e n The matrix form of this system is (4) X = DX +E, where X is the output matrix and E is the external demand matrix. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 22 / 25 Leontief input-output models EXAMPLE 2.2 An economic system composed of 3 industries has the input-output matrix 0.1 0.43 0 D = 0.15 0 0.37 0.23 0.03 0.02 Find the output matrix X when the external 20000 demands are E = 30000 25000 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 23 / 25 Leontief input-output models SOLUTION. X = D X + E ⇒ (I − D)X = E ⇒ X = (I − D)−1 E . 46616 X ≈ 51058 38014 Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 24 / 25 Leontief input-output models SOLUTION. X = D X + E ⇒ (I − D)X = E ⇒ X = (I − D)−1 E . 46616 X ≈ 51058 38014 To produce the given external demands, the outputs of the 3 industries must be approximately 46616 units for the industry I, 51058 units for industry II, and 38014 units for industry III. Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 24 / 25 Leontief input-output models THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Dr. Lê Xuân Đại (HCMUT-OISP) APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR ALGEBRA HCMC — 2019. 25 / 25