INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS I Practice sessions Session 1 PRACTICE SESSIONBosco Maria Giovanna - Politecnico di Milano Outline Introduction Questions from Ricardo’s model and Gravity model Open questions Exercises Quiz Class Structure Open Questions, Exercises, Quiz Small groups The more you engage, the better! Unclear issues from last lecture Think through which were the unclear points for you Make a list of these Discuss the most important ones in small groups Still unclear? -> post your question online Question 1 for discussion The Services sector has been steadily rising in relative importance in GDP of Italy, as well as elsewhere around the world. Since "services" have been identified as "nontradable" (e.g., it is difficult to export haircuts), it may be argued that this trend will likely slow the rapid growth in international trade. Discuss. Possible answer to question 1 This argument stands on questionable logical foundations. The past half century has seen a steady growth in the absolute and relative importance of international trade. This trend has been reversed only by global conflicts, i.e. the two World Wars. This trend has remained steady and robust despite major compositional shifts (e.g., from primary to manufacturing), and location shifts (e.g., the sudden rise of NICs as a significant group of exporters). The trend will probably continue into the reasonable future, fueled by both super-regional preferential trade regions and a growing impact of the multilateral forces, represented institutionally by the World Trade Organization (WTO)—as illustrated by the recent abolishment of the epitome cartelized trade, the world trade in textiles. Driven by technology—especially in the areas of communication and transportation—a reversal of the growing trade trend is not likely in the near future. Many "services" are in fact quite tradable. Examples would be financial services, long-distance teaching, "help-desk" outsourcing, consulting and management services and others. In fact, when a tourist gets a haircut, we see that even haircuts become a "tradable" service. Question 2 for discussion One of the major political developments of the past several decades was the growing size and economic/monetary integration of the European Union. What effect do you think this had on international trade between countries? Answer to question 2 The growing economic integration meant that the barriers to trade were steadily falling in a region. The common monetary unit also promoted inter-country trade within the EU The standardization of transportation (including railroad gauges, highway signs etc.) and product codes also promoted expansion of intra-EU trade The decline in the probability of political conflict associated with this comprehensive economic union, plus conscious attempts to cooperate in fiscal and monetary policy stances again facilitated growing international trade, allowing these countries to increasingly enjoy the fruits of potential positive scale economies, and more traditional classical and neo-classical gains from trade. Question 3 for discussion It is argued that small countries tend to have more open economies than large ones. What are the logical underpinnings of this argument? Some possible answers to question 3 They do not have sufficient resources to satisfy consumption needs; and also do not have a sufficiently large market to enable their industries to avail themselves of scale economy possibilities. Another answer would rely on a location argument. Assume that the “natural” market for any given plant is a circle with a radius of n miles with the plant at its center. Assuming that the production plants are located randomly throughout the country, then the probability that the typical circular market will encompass some foreign country is greater the smaller is the country. Question 4 for discussion Using the gravity model explain how trade relations of the UK were likely to change after a no-deal Brexit. Answer for question 4 The (basic formulation of the) Gravity Model predicts trade size Ti,j between country i and country j with the following equation: , , where Di,j measures the distance between country i and country j and Yi (Yj ) measures country i (j) GDP. Before Brexit, trade flows between UK and Europe were significantly larger than what predicted by the Gravity Model because of the benefits to international trade given by EU membership. Conversely, trade flows were significantly smaller between UK and the Rest of the World. No-deal Brexit will likely realign UK international trade on trade partners' size and proximity. See here the current EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement Exercise 1 Home has 1200 units of labour. It can produce two goods, apples and bananas. The unit labour requirement in apple production is 3, while in banana production it is 2. a. Graph Home’s production possibility frontier b. What is the opportunity cost of apples in terms of bananas? c. In the absence of trade, what would the price of apples in terms of bananas be? Exercise 1 - solutions Exercise 1 - solutions LH=1200, aL,A=3. aL,B=2 a. Graph Home’s production possibility frontier: aL,AQA + aL,BQB = LH QA = L/aLA =1200/3=400 when QB = 0 QB = L/aLB =1200/2=600 when QA = 0 The production possibility frontier is: QB = L/aLB – (aLA /aLB )QA Plugging in numerical values: QB = 1200/2 – (3 /2 )QA = 600 – 1,5QA Exercise 1 - solutions LH=1200, aL,A=3. aL,B=2 a. Graph Home’s production possibility frontier: Banana production,Qb L/aLB=600 L/aLB=400 Apple production,Qa 16 Exercise 1 - solutions LH=1200, aL,A=3, aL,B=2 b. What is the opportunity cost of apples in terms of bananas? Opportunity Cost aLA/aLB = 3/2 The opportunity cost of apples in terms of bananas is 3/2. It takes three units of labor to harvest an apple but only two units of labor to harvest a banana. If one foregoes harvesting an apple, this frees up three units of labor. These 3 units of labor could then be used to harvest 1.5 bananas. Exercise 1 - solutions LH=1200, aL,A=3, aL,B=2 c. In the absence of trade what would the price of apples in terms of bananas be? Exercise 2 Home has 1200 units of labour. It can produce two goods, apples and bananas. The unit labour requirement in apple production is 3, while in banana production it is 2. Foreign has a labour force of 800. Foreign’s unit labour requirement in apple production is 5, in banana 1. a. Graph Foreign’s production possibility frontier b. Construct the world relative supply curve Exercise 2 - solutions L = 1200, aLA= 3, aLB= 2, L* = 800, a*LA= 5, a*LB= 1 H a. F Graph Foreign’s (*) production possibility frontier: a*LAQA + a*LBQB = L* Q*A = L*/a*LA =800/5=160 when Q*B = 0 Q*B = L*/a*LB =800/1=800 when Q*A = 0 Q*B = L*/a*LB – (a*LA /*aLB )Q*A and plugging in values… Q*B = 800/1 – (5/1) Q*B or Q*B = 800 – 5 Q*A Exercise 2 - solutions LH = 1200, aLA= 3, aLB= 2, L*F = 800, a*LA= 5, a*LB= 1 a. Graph Foreign’s production possibility frontier: Banana production,Q*b L/aLB=800 L/aLB=160 Apple production,Q*a Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 2 - solutions Exercise 3 Given the information in the table above: What is the opportunity cost of Cloth in terms of Widgets in Foreign? What is the opportunity cost of Cloth in terms of Widgets in Home? If these two countries trade these two goods in the context of the Ricardian model of comparative advantage, then what is the lower limit of the world equilibrium price of cloth relative to widgets? Exercise 3 -solution What is the opportunity cost of Cloth in terms of Widgets in Foreign? a*LC/a*LW=60/30=2 Exercise 3 -solution What is the opportunity cost of Cloth in terms of Widgets in Home? aLC/aLW=100/200=0.5 Exercise 3 -solution If these two countries trade these two goods in the context of the Ricardian model of comparative advantage, then what is the lower limit of the world equilibrium price of cloth relative to widgets? Quiz 1st quiz question The gravity model suggests that over time A. world trade will eventually be swallowed by a black hole. B. the value of trade between two countries will be proportional to the product of the two countries' GDP. C. trade between Earth and other planets will become important. D. trade between all countries will increase. E. trade between neighboring countries will increase. Answer: B 2nd quiz question The gravity model offers a logical explanation for the fact that A. B. C. D. E. trade between Asia and the U.S. has grown faster than NAFTA trade. trade in services has grown faster than trade in goods. trade in manufactures has grown faster than in agricultural products. intra-European Union trade exceeds international trade by the European Union. the U.S. trades more with Western Europe than it does with Canada. Answer: D 3rd quiz question The gravity model explains why A. trade between Sweden and Germany exceeds that between Sweden and Spain. B. countries with oil reserves tend to export oil. C. capital rich countries export capital intensive products. D. intra-industry trade is relatively more important than other forms of trade between neighboring countries. E. European countries rely most often on natural resources Answer: A 4th quiz question The two neighbors of the United States do a lot more trade with the United States than European economies of equal size. A. This contradicts predictions from gravity models. B. This is consistent with predictions from gravity models. C. This is irrelevant to any inferences that may be drawn from gravity models. D. This is because these neighboring countries have exceptionally large GDPs. E. This relates to Belgium's trade record with the U.S Answer: B 5th quiz question Approximately what percent of all world production of goods and services is exported to other countries? A. 10% B. 30% C. 50% D. 100% E. 90% Answer: B