January 2022 (Volume - 19)
FOR CSS 2022
HOT TOPICS INSIDE
Edited & Compiled by Aamir Mahar
ARTICULATE
Climate catastrophe
A shift in Democracy
Media and misinformation
The coming of future warfare
Evaluating the Xi-Biden Summit
Pakistan’s Agriculture Challenges
US policy dilemma in Afghanistan
BRICS+2.0: Integration Reloaded
Evolving Pakistan-Sri Lanka relations
Russia in the Eastern Mediterranean
Unshackling Pakistan’s economy & 2022
Significance of National Security Policy of Pakistan
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A SHIFT IN DEMOCRACY
The U.S. hosted the virtual “Summit for Democracy” on December 9-10. It is a striking irony that it occurred
shortly after the U.S. chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which it invaded basically to establish“democracy”
and eliminate terrorism. Bombings of Yugoslavia,military intervention in Iraq and Libya, “democratic
transformation” and “color revolutions” worldwide, triggered by the U.S., did not result in stability or
prosperity, but all ended in turbulence, wars, humanitarian disasters and refugee crises, sowing the seeds of
death and destruction,leaving nothing of value behind. This political show depended on a purely American
categorization. The Russian Foreign Ministry pointed out that it demonstrated how the U.S. prefers to create
new dividing lines. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Thailand Don Pramudwinai said the
gathering was a token of political manipulation stemming purely from political purposes. Hungarian Foreign
Minister Peter Szijjarto pointed out that it bore features of U.S. domestic politics. Media outlets in the Middle
East, including those across Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel, called the event an American tool to meddle in
other countries’ internal affairs and maintain its hegemony. All these showed how unpopular this
self-choreographed play proved, and how much opposition the international community features. To convene
such a meeting against the backdrop of many problems in Western democracies is ironic. The intention is
nothing but bashing countries that were denied participation, instigating ideological confrontation, and
preventing the shaping of a global polycentric architecture; a complete distortion of democracy.
The real question: One year after U.S. President Joe Biden’s inauguration, the world is becoming increasingly
aware that his administration is trying to have something for everyone. For balance of power realists, it has
countered China by working closely with other members of the Quad alignment—Australia, Japan and India,
and creating a new Australia-UK-U.S. nexus via the clumsily handled AUKUS submarine deal. For liberal
internationalists, it has re-engaged with global institutions,rejoining the World Health Organization and the
Paris Agreement on climate change. For those advocating “restraint” in America’s military might, it has ended
the “forever Afghanistan wars.” And to appease democracy and human rights activists,it hosted the recent
virtual meeting. But the real question is: Are American interests determined by its position on other countries’
democratic models? In 2020, the integrity of the American elections was pulled into question, when there
were unprecedented doubts that the president who lost the race in November 2020 would peacefully leave the
White House. For the first time in U.S. history, armed groups occupied Capitol while groups on the other
side called for the police to be defunded. This has laid bare the myth of the U.S. democracy. The flaw sin the
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In the name of democracy: In fact, the idea of controlling the world under the pretext of “democracy” has
been frequently used by U.S. presidents to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. President
Woodrow Wilson declared that the U.S. would enter World War I in the name of making the world safer for
democracy. The administration of President Jimmy Carter proclaimed to human rights and democracy as a
determinant of American foreign policy. In 1983, the Ronald Reagan administration established the National
Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute to provide technical and material assistance to
democracy programs abroad as well as the National Endowment for Democracy, which sought to support
“democratic trends” in both communist and non-communist countries. The main objective there was not to
establish the values of democracy, but to confront the communist bloc and its international influence.
President Bill Clinton spoke about what he called “democratic expansion” in 1993, and this principle resulted
in the emergence of three documents under the name of National Security Strategy for Intervention and
Expansion in 1994, 1995 and 1996. This strategy was based on aggressive intervention in all parts of the world
in the name of “democratic expansion” as a mechanism to win more market space. In conclusion, the U.S. has
used “democracy” to serve its own interests. The attempt to take the American model as the main criterion, to
forcibly transplant and impose it onto the whole world, only intended to provoke tension between different
political systems and ideologies. This is further evidenced by the double standards in dealing with the values of
democracy, human rights violations and corruption, which are condemned in countries that are treated as U.S.
enemies, but overlooked in countries that are U.S. allies.
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American electoral system are self-evident. The rampant use of gerrymandering has manipulated the division
of constituencies and compromised fairness and justice. The electoral democracy is actually ruled by capital and
it is the game of the wealthy. The public is wooed when their votes are wanted, but gets ignored once the
votes have been counted. The check-and-balance system has become a “vetocracy,” with partisan interests put
above national development. The vehement exchange of insults between Democrats and Republicans clearly
indicates that U.S. democracy is seriously ill. The U.S. has been politically polarized, socially fractured, and its
democracy has increasingly been hollowing out, leaving its people increasingly disgruntled. The fact that 50
million people have been infected with and 800,000 died of COVID-19 indicates that its democracy brings
only disaster in the ongoing epidemic response.
MEDIA AND MISINFORMATION
As we move into 2022, the media in Pakistan faces a number of challenges in terms of its functioning as well as
its freedom. Both are inter-linked as well. Like the rest of the world, we can see that the print media is
gradually giving way to digital media. This was bound to happen. What was surprising, however, was the
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A failed confrontation The “summit” clearly has the purpose of creating an ideological instrument to
bewielded against China.However, this attempt ignores the fact that China offers an alternative to the Western
model for development, which is currently facing more challenges from within than from abroad. Branding
the world’s second largest economy as authoritarian or autocratic cannot explain the progress that has lifted it
to world leadership status.In a country of over 1.4 billion people, 4.2 times that of the U.S., it is impossible to
mobilize resources on the scale that China has through an authoritarian system. What China has, is an
extensive, whole-process people’s democracy. It integrates process-oriented with results-oriented democracy,
procedural with substantive democracy, direct with indirect democracy, and people’s democracy with the will
of the state. It is a model of socialist democracy that covers all aspects of the democratic process and all sectors
of society to ensure people’s full participation not only in voting, but also in national governance, and in
exercising state power through the National People’s Congress and local people’s congresses at different levels.
The idea of putting people first has featured in Chinese culture since ancient times. The Communist Party of
China was established with the mission to pursue well-being for all. With the slogans of anti-dictatorship,
anti-autocracy and anti-oppression, it enabled the people to become masters of their own country. As the
governing party, it has remained faithful to its original aspiration and founding mission: people-centered and
serving the people wholeheartedly. China also bears a unique political consultation system and corresponding
institutions, which are important ways for the people to exercise democracy. Any matters that concern
people’s keen interests are broadly discussed to ensure that what they want is reflected in the final decisions.
Most of the problems and conflicts of interests will have been addressed and suggestions are accepted prior to
the decision-making itself, rendering the implementation of the policies easier. China’s democratic process
may not be the same as the U.S. version, but it is a process that leads to the articulation and effective
management of social concerns. China’s confidence in elaborating on its own democratic practices sprouts
from its experiences in creating a moderately prosperous society, rapidly improving the wellbeing of Chinese
people, eradicating absolute poverty, and successfully fighting COVID-19. China’s political system has paved
the way for remarkable and globally eye catching social and economic achievements. Two decades of Biden’s
50-odd years in the public eye were spent during the Cold War and a third during the 1990s with the U.S. as
the only superpower in the world. However, the frameworks, paradigms and doctrines of that era simply no
longer suffice to meet the challenges of the 21st century. A bolder thinking is required, a mindset that shifts
away a planet carrying 8 billion people rather than a constructed system of 195 countries, and builds a
community with a shared future for humanity. In the face of global challenges such as the COVID-19
pandemic, climate change, terrorism and economic downturn, what the world needs is not a “Summit for
Democracy” that incites division and confrontation, but efforts to uphold true multilateralism on the basis of
the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and jointly tackle
common challenges. Beijing Review, December 23, 2021
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prime place that the print media held in the country in the first place given our poor literacy rate. But this
possibly had to do with the fact that in the first fifty years of Pakistan, radio and television remained firmly in
state control. That is why most people had to turn to newspapers for an alternative viewpoint. Newspapers
were also seen as reliable and authentic sources of information, with print journalists cited for their credibility.
Possibly much of this changed when the broadcast media was opened up to the private sector post-1988 and
post-1999 and the unhealthy operation of more than 40 national news channels led to the breaking news
syndrome where the usual practice is resorting to sensationalism to raise ratings. Now it seems that the days of
television may also be numbered. Audiences are shifting. And with them will shift advertising revenues.
Millennials and Generation Y want news on the go. In bite size pieces. And in the form of opinion at times.
This makes most traditional newspersons shudder. Money has to be made, regardless of platform. This remains
the biggest challenge for digital enterprises. There is still no one business model that can guarantee profits for
them. I recall attending a media summit in Germany two years back where most media owners and editors
kept scratching their heads to come up with the right formula on how to keep their entities afloat.
It gets more interesting. There were 46 million social media users in Pakistan in January 2021, which is an
increase of 9 million (24%) over the previous year. This means that the number of social media users in
Pakistan was equivalent to 20.6% of the total population in January 2021. Analysts also point to the
phenomenal growth of TikTok in Pakistan, especially in 2020, when Covid was at its peak and millions were
twiddling their thumbs at home. But what does this mean for all of us? To begin with, the rise of social media.
Post-2016, social media has started taking up space that mainstream media surrendered owing to growing
censorship. With the passage of time, the screws on the mainstream media — particularly revenue pressures —
were tightened, which meant that many stories could only be accessed through social media platforms.
The problem in this new era of information is that social media have no reliable checks or balances. Granted
that Twitter has its verified accounts and that many international platforms act on the spread of false news, but
by and large it is a jungle out there. And in the jungle, the biggest predator is fake news. In 2020, the biggest
problem for Pakistan will be the proliferation of fake news and disinformation. This can come from domestic
sources or international quarters. We have before us the Indian Chronicles, which is an example of how an
operation was conducted over a period of 15 years to discredit Pakistan in the eyes of the European Union and
the world at large. Are we prepared for this onslaught? Probably not. It is time to think about developing a
strategy to protect the hapless and trusting average Pakistani whose belief in conspiracy theories strengthens
with each passing day. It is time for a mature response to this problem and not the half-baked measures we
have seen in the past. The Express Tribune, January 3, 2022.
EVALUATING THE XI-BIDEN SUMMIT
The virtual summit has come and gone and what has it changed? Virtually nothing. We had good reason to
believe that more would be accomplished. Admittedly, the original meeting read-outs were relatively sparse,
and new details emerged in the days that followed, indicating that more was said and done than either side
initially conveyed. But the key questions facing us now are: Why did we expect more; why didn't we get it;
and what does all of this mean for China-U.S. relations going forward?
What did we expect? Many experts believed the meeting was taking place because there would be a significant
announcement, one that would finally signal a reversal of the U.S.-instigated trade war. Such an
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The one thing we know is that the market is changing. Advertising money is now coming into the digital
arena. In fact, advertising revenue rose by 50 per cent over the previous year for Pakistani digital platforms,
claim some analysts. The growth of internet users in Pakistan can give some idea of such trends. There were
61.34 million internet users in Pakistan in January 2021, which is an increase of 11 million (21%) over the
previous year. At the same time, potential for growth can be gauged from the fact that internet penetration in
Pakistan stood at 27.5% in January 2021. There is vast opportunity for growth.
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Why didn't we get it? There's the outside chance that some important deals were reached but will be
announced later to minimize political backlash and market disruptions. And we shouldn't dismiss reports the
U.S. asked for help on oil prices and proposed exploring arms control, or that visa restrictions on journalists
would be eased by both sides. Some also had inflated expectations. For example, hopes that the Chinese
consulate in Houston and the U.S. consulate in Chengdu would soon return were overly optimistic. And no
one expected much movement on disputes related to technology or Taiwan. Nevertheless, the lack of
movement on trade still confounds. If we try to understand this from the U.S. side, assuming the U.S. was
primarily responsible for stalling on the trade issue, then it's helpful to consider a keen insight from Gal Luft
with the Washington-based Institute for Analysis of Global Security, who opined that the two leaders appeared
to have been talking past each other. Luft saw Xi as speaking to history, almost pleading with Biden to rise
above the current mess of American domestic politics and to reverse the course on provocations, to instead
embrace rationalism and reality in bilateral relations. In contrast, Luft viewed Biden as pandering to mid-term
voters, including anti-China hawks, business interests, environmentalists, human rights groups, and so on. It's
true that the Democrats are vulnerable next year and might lose control of Congress, further imperiling
Biden's domestic agenda and his chances of reelection in 2024. But striking a deal on trade that could be sold as
helping U.S. consumers who've been paying for Trump's tariffs on top of other inflationary pressures seemed
like a no-brainer.
And yet, Biden probably realized that the anti-trade faction of his own party would revolt and that he'd lose
the tenuous support he'd gained from workers in key states during the last election—workers who'd been
brainwashed by Trump that their economic woes were China's fault and not that of greedy American
corporates and negligent American governance, including poor reinvestment and social supports, and
long-festering social and health woes.
The other possibility, bearing in mind that both might be true, is that the Chinese side simply decided the
American terms for resolution were ludicrous. Since the trade war started, China has moved forward with its
new development strategy, dual circulation, which aims to make China less dependent on foreign purchases. It
has moved quickly to resolve chokepoints as the U.S. tightened tech-related restrictions. Moreover, as the
pandemic has demonstrated, the world depends on good Chinese governance and industry—the most
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announcement seemed imminent for a number of reasons. First, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai had
conceded the trade war was self-defeating, and this was becoming even clearer as it was one of many causes for
U.S. inflation and commodity shortages, putting downward pressure on President Joe Biden's approval ratings,
especially as American consumers were heading into the busiest shopping season of the year. Second, just
hours before the meeting took place, Biden finally signed into law one of his long awaited infrastructure bills.
A master of sequencing given his long years in Congress and time as vice president, the timing was no
coincidence. It was expected that this achievement would give him more political capital for dealing rationally
with China. Third, during the meeting, which exceeded its planned length—also taken as an encouraging
sign—it was reported that Janet Yellen, current Secretary of the Treasury and former Fed Chair, was
participating, likewise fueling hopes that trade was the cornerstone of the conversation. Fourth, the U.S. and
China had just surprised the world during COP26 with the announcement that they would work together to
reduce global emissions and reverse global warming. As a matter of public relations and staging, it was
reasonable to conclude that something more, and even something more significant, would be announced after
the summit. Fifth, it should be noted that China appeared less enthusiastic about having a summit this year.
This was due in part to the numerous provocations that started during the Donald Trump administration and
that in some respects accelerated with Biden—including especially the AUKUS deal and the revelation that
U.S. troops were in Taiwan. With President Xi Jinping riding high after a successful Sixth Plenary Session of
the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, COVID-19-containment, comparatively
good economic growth, the elimination of extreme poverty and reaching the long-pursued xiaokang society
threshold, he had little incentive to participate in a meeting that would yield so little.
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advanced industrial system in the world by many accounts was able to accelerate and expand production
because China was the first to contain the outbreak and keep it under control while more than a half million
perished in the U.S. and its economy and deficit spending went off the rails.
Over the same period of time, China saw its growth rate soar to unexpected highs, attracting inbound FDI in
droves, becoming the top destination in the world for global-minded investors. Moreover, RCEP [Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership], the world's largest free trade agreement with China as a member,
took a major step forward and will come into force January 1, 2022.
Finally, prospects for American recovery seem shaky at best, particularly with reports that Chinese investors are
dumping U.S. dollars amid global concerns about U.S. economic stability. U.S. inflation just hit a 31-year
high, and outside of resolving the trade dispute, there is no easy mix of fiscal or monetary policies to resolve
this problem that won't in turn produce clear losers, whether workers or corporates, almost ensuring the
Democrats will lose next year. So why help Biden on trade when he has done so much to provoke on other
fronts, and when the economic benefit to China might not be worth the cost, and the political cost
unbearable?
But above all, Beijing has warned for some time that this wouldn't work. That trying to use Taiwan as leverage
in bilateral relations would fail, as would other efforts, like the QUAD, AUKUS, B3W, and so on. Except in
cases where it clearly benefits Beijing, China isn't interested in dealing with this triple approach—one, headed
by current Secretary of State Antony Blinken, seeking containment; the second, headed by National Security
Advisor, Jake Sullivan, emphasizing competition; and the third, headed by Climate Czar John Kerry, the other
"secretary of state," negotiating the climate deal and serving as the one reliable conduit for growing Chinese
frustrations. If we don't see some sort of resolution on trade in the near term, then we'll have to conclude that
Biden's strategy has failed and his presidency likely will, too. He'll then face the uncomfortable position of
either backtracking in ways that will expose him politically at home or doubling down on competition and
containment. Both approaches seem unwinnable given the current circumstances, and both risk opening the
door to the Republicans retaking Congress next year and perhaps the White House in three. And if Biden
hopes the Chinese see this as a type of extortion, in other words, "deal with us or see worse return," that
probably won't work either. Indeed, after Trump, who in the world believes that Republicans pose a greater
danger to the Chinese rejuvenation than they do to U.S. recovery? Beijing Review, December 2, 2021
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE
The first United Nations Scientific Conference on the Environment, also known as the First Earth Summit,
was held in Stockholm, Sweden, from June 6-15, 1972. It established a Declaration of Principles and adopted
an action plan with recommendations for the preservation and enhancement of the environment. Furthermore,
and perhaps more importantly, it led to the creation of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Since then, environmental issues and climate evolution have figured prominently on the global agenda, yet
pledges made to protect the environment and reduce emissions are not being fulfilled. Without an
international enforcement mechanism, governments are not legally bound to make good on their
commitments, for example, to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2040, which is what Biden pledged
that the US will do. Equally significant, environmental legislation aimed at imposing criminal penalties on
corporations and their officials remains weak and, in some countries, even non-existent. In the US, where
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What comes next? Since the awful Anchorage meeting earlier this year after the new administration took
power, Biden's approach to China—which I've described as a "three-headed monster," i.e., compete,
cooperate, and contain—has appeared tragically clear and doomed to fail. I concluded in a previous article that
this strategy wouldn't work because "a) actually balancing these three schizoid approaches is quite difficult, all
the more so because b) China isn't playing along like it used to, and c) American allies are facing their own
challenges and like the American people themselves, don't have much faith in the U.S. anymore."
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several types of criminal violations are specified in the Clean Air Act and whose definition of an air pollutant
includes greenhouse gas emissions, following a 2007 US Supreme Court ruling on the matter, many states
regularly look the other way when it comes to protecting public health and the environment from illegal air
pollution from oil refineries and chemical plants. Texas, for example, failed between 2011 and 2016 to
penalize 97 percent of illegal polluters. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the top two US greenhouse gas emitting
companies listed in the new edition of Greenhouse 100 Polluters Index Report by researchers at the renowned
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst are based in Texas.
Vista Energy and Duke Energy released a combined 194 million tons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas
emissions into the atmosphere in 2019, and this figure does not include biogenic carbon dioxide emissions
(emissions released by a stationary facility from the combustion or decomposition of biologically-based
materials other than fossil fuels).
Essentially, what we have is a cause-and-effect relationship between anthropogenic climate change and species
extinction. Higher temperatures lead to a chain reaction of other changes around the globe, with tremendous
impact not simply on people but also on wildlife and biodiversity. Today’s extinctions proceed at a pace faster
than ever before, with around one million species already facing extinction, “many within decades,’ according
to a major United Nations 2019 report. The time has come for drastic measures to protect the environment
and save the world from a climate catastrophe. Polluting the environment is a crime, but environmental
criminals are almost never prosecuted. Environmental crime is still regarded a ‘white collar crime’, subject
mostly to civil charges and accompanied by fines, when the reality on the state of the planet mandates that
environmental destruction be conceptualized as a crime against humanity.
Fines are surely not enough to deter greedy and ruthless capitalists from destroying the environment, even if
fines happen to be as steep as those involved in the historic greenhouse gas enforcement case between the US
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Hyundai and Kia that forced the automakers to pay $100 million
civil penalty for, among other wrongdoings, emitting more greenhouse gases than reported to EPA or, even
more recently, of the seemingly humongous fine of $1 billion levied against German automakers Volkswagen
and BMW by the European Union. Both automakers were fined for colluding to curb the use of emissions
cleaning technology. For the record, Volkswagen has a long cheating emissions history, yet it continues to get
off easy. The reason is that Germany doesn’t even have criminal liability for corporations, and only recently
has there been a move to introduce such a legal framework. In Europe, in fact, “there is no penalty for
environmental crime,” according to EU environmental commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius. Yet another
reason why fines won’t deter polluters is because the costs of such penalties get passed onto shareholders and
even to consumers rather than being borne by the culpable individuals.
Prison sentences must be embraced for environmental crimes, although it is clear that environmental crime
cannot be synthesized into a single category. Severe environmental crimes (any crime that brings about an
alteration of globalcommons or the Earth’s ecological system, such as, for example, the destruction of the
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Under the Trump administration, polluters and corporate interests had more freedom than any other time
over the past few decades to destroy the environment. More than 125 environmental regulations were rolled
back during Trump’s nightmarish reign of power. Of course, let’s not forget the US military’s carbon footprint,
which spews so much greenhouse gas emissions from fuel usage alone that if it were a country it would rank as
the 47th worst polluter in the world, according to a 2019 report released by social scientists at Durham
University and Lancaster University in UK. In the meantime, China has emerged as the world’s biggest
greenhouse gas emitter, with 60 percent of its power provided by coal, although it is still far behind the US in
terms of per capita emissions. Thus, nearly half a century after the First Earth Summit, most environmental
problems have worsened, and nature and climate are subsequently on the verge of breakdown. The rate of
species extinction is accelerating, according to scores of scientific studies, and there continues to be a relentless
rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused by the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil which causes
temperatures to rise, producing the phenomenon of global warming.
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Amazon forest under the Bolsonaro administration) should be accompanied by severe imprisonment sentences.
The harmful effects of environmental degradation – impact on human health, loss of biodiversity, atmospheric
changes, scarcity of natural resources–-are beyond dispute. Therefore, the killing of nature must be added to
the list of the most horrific crimes imaginable. Ecocide must be elevated into an international crime – on a par
with genocide and war crimes – and fall within the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Common
Dreams, December 29, 2021
PAKISTAN’S AGRICULTURE CHALLENGES
There is great investment potential in fruits and vegetables. Citrus has especially frozen concentrated orange
juices has a great potential of export to Europe, the US, Japan, and China. Mangoes, especially mango pulp
and dried mango products, have great potential not only for investment opportunities but also for export to
several countries in the world. Potatoes are the major crop that has the potential of earning foreign exchange.
Several by-products of potatoes including dehydrated potato flakes and potato powder has not only an
investment potential but also export to the Middle East, Far East, China, and many neighbouring countries.
Livestock is one of the major and largest sub-sectors in agriculture and can play an important role in the
foreign exchange of the country. This sector is playing a lead on the economic growth, food security, and
poverty alleviation in the country. This sector has already surpassed the crop sub-sectors and contributed 60
per cent to the overall agriculture and more than 11 per cent to the GDP during 2019-20. There is a great
potential for investment in the livestock and dairy sector, especially in value-added products. The dairy
industry in Pakistan needs proper attention and care. The population increase is expected to increase the
demand for dairy and related goods and resources. Meat processing sector with high-value addition and
exporting potential demands investment with long-term planning. The poultry sector is one of the major
sub-sectors of the livestock sector and this sector is progressing with impressive growth with a rate of eight per
cent per annum but value addition products need due attention. Fish and fish products are a great source of
livelihood for the coastal inhabitants. This “Blue Revolution” and “Blue Growth” with value-added products
demands serious efforts and steps to improve the fisheries sector and its exports. Edible oil, especially olive oil,
is being imported in large quantities and there is a great demand for olive oil in Pakistan and neighbouring
countries. Key production areas, especially the Pothohar region, are considered as “Olive valley,” which
demands investment with proper attention and care.
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a game-changer and an immense opportunity to uplift the food
and agriculture of Pakistan by adapting CPEC Phase II (industrial cooperation for collaboration between
China and Pakistan with a focus on the value-addition of agriculture products through innovative methods).
Under CPEC, the main focus should be on evolving and creating opportunities for high value-added product
export to China and neighbouring countries. For this purpose, Pakistan needs to have better production
capacity through development for farmers via scientific techniques. Collaborations and ventures between the
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Pakistan is blessed with abundant natural resources, especially agricultural resources. Agriculture provides 16
per cent employment in the manufacturing sector and contributes 18.9 percent to GDP and absorbs 42.3
percent of the labour force. It is an important source of foreign exchange earnings and speeds up growth in
other sectors of the economy. Pakistan is a major global player in agriculture production: the top fifth global
producer of cotton, mangoes, milk, dates, and pine nuts; the top tenth global producer of sugarcane, meat, and
wheat and the top fifteenth global producer of rice and citrus. Leading sub-sectors of agriculture of Pakistan
include crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries, and food processing with 8.26 million farms in the country with an
average of 90 per cent of farms being small. The food processing industry includes value-added and frozen
food processing sectors, edible oil and fat processing plants, bakery and confectionary plants, and beverages
production units. This industry is concentrated in Punjab (60 percent) followed by Sindh (30 percent) and is
mainly catering to urban households. The demand for processed food will be on the higher side over time.
Domestic demand for food and beverages is growing day by day.
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two countries under the umbrella of CPEC will bring Chinese experts, scientists, researchers, and businessmen
to develop collaboration and cooperation to uplift. This important sector is considered as the backbone of
Pakistan for food security and the economy of Pakistan. Foreign investment in the food processing sector in
Pakistan can beverage the trade routes and special economic zone including Rashakai Economic Zone, Boston
special economic zone, Allama Iqbal Industrial City, and Moqpondass.
Agriculture is the real strength and backbone of Pakistan’s economy having a major share in the GDP and
providing basic raw materials for several value-added sectors and industries. Agriculture research and
development demands a hostile strategy and brand-based real change in the policy and economic context with
long-term planning with utmost dedication and commitment. Policymakers and all stakeholders need to
redesign and rethink interventions for food security and agriculture to get real benefits from CPEC phase II
i.e., industrial cooperation. Pakistan can face severe water shortage in the coming years if water is not stored
during the monsoon, which will ultimately affect agriculture production. Daily Times, January 3, 2022
SIGNIFICANCE OF NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY OF PAKISTAN
The conception of a state in Islam is very different from a Westphalian one. An Islamic state is a
commonwealth of all Muslims living as one community under the guidance and direction of a supreme
executive head. Since the present international system is not aligned with the Islamic state system, this article is
restricted to discuss state, society and security according to the prevailing international system.
Barry Buzan is of the view that “security is a contested concept and attempt to provide a precise definition is
fruitless.” In my view, security is a condition of any state in terms of threats -external, internal, traditional,
non-traditional, and evolving. Therefore, it calls for a comprehensive national security policy, which is a
cardinal prerequisite for national survival. National security policymaking is a continuous process that is based
on the development, deployment and employment of all elements of national power. Each element of
National Security is as important as military or economic security is. Therefore, the process must focus on
human security, ultimately leading to national security.
Until now, Pakistan did not have a documented National Security Policy. However, a draft policy has now
been approved by the National Security Committee and subsequently by the Federal Cabinet chaired by the
Prime Minister of Pakistan on December 27 and 28, 2021. The National Security Advisor Dr Moeed Yusuf,
who was responsible for the formulation and presentation of Pakistan’s first national security policy, has
declared it a “historic achievement.” According to him, the hallmark of Pakistan’s NSP is that it is
“citizen-centric with economic security at the core.” It covers all aspects related to traditional and
non-traditional security. The public version of NSP, once released, is likely to generate healthy discussion
among academia, state institutions and civil society, for further refinements. It will now serve as a mother
document for respective policies covering all elements of national security. Some important elements of
national security include economic security, health security, personal security, political security, environmental
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In today’s complex and uncertain global environment, there is nothing more important than security, whether
it is for an individual, community, or state. However, in a changing paradigm, no state can ensure its national
security without ensuring human security as well as related aspects of non-traditional security. Each state strives
to ensure the well-being of its people alongside its territorial integrity to ensure comprehensive national
security. To understand the significance of a comprehensive national security policy, it is necessary to study the
governance framework and processes. The state is the primary unit with a well-defined territory in which a
vibrant society resides and is governed by an executive authority recognized by international institutions. States
are responsible for creating opportunities for society to develop in the socio-cultural domain as well as
economic progress towards prosperity among the comity of nations. To achieve this, states have necessary
institutions, political and administrative, with designated authority for the purpose. History has shown that
societies have disintegrated from within whenever states became dysfunctional due to a lack of political
authority or economic independence.
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security, community security, and food security, also referred to as human security. Other important elements
include military security, information security, cyber security, and energy security etc. I will briefly explain
these elements in the following paragraphs.
In the era of geo-economics, economic security is perhaps as important a part of national security as military
security. In today’s complex system of international trade, characterized by multinational agreements, mutual
interdependence and availability of natural resources etc., the freedom to exercise choice of policies to develop
a nation’s economy in the manner desired, invites economic security. The creation and protection of jobs that
supply defence and non-defence needs are vital to national security. Military security implies the capability of a
nation to defend itself, and/or deter military aggression. Alternatively, it implies the capability of a nation to
enforce its policy choices by use of military force. It’s a condition that results from the establishment and
maintenance of protective measures that ensures a state of inviolability from hostile acts or influences.
UNSHACKLING PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY
As Pakistan enters its seventy-fifth year of independence, a conventional policy is unlikely to combat the
breadth of its economic challenges. Across a range of areas—human capital, technology, agriculture, finance,
trade, public service delivery and more—new ideas must (innovation) now be on the table. The Covid-19
pandemic has not only cost Pakistan many lives and livelihoods, it has also exposed major structural weaknesses
in the economy. A huge agriculture and employment crisis, rising and massive inequalities, tepid investment
growth, chronic banking sector challenges and unprecedented Pak Rupee devaluations have plagued the
economy, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
It has also exposed the limitations of the Pakistani state, which tries to control too much—and ends up stifling
the economy and the inherent energies of its young population; Bangladesh in this respect would be a good
role model to follow where the state has tangibly demonstrated on how ‘responsible’ outsourcing to the
private sector on key deliverables can not only take away from the burden of the state, but also impart them in
a much more efficient and quality-oriented manner.
Climate change is no longer a distant threat, while disruptive technology has huge implications for Pakistan’s
demographic dividend—already by now a significantly reduced annual snowfall level in the Himalayas is
raising alarm bells. In addition, the dangerous lurch towards growing intolerance and public anger and
frustration will cast its shadow on Pakistan’s pursuit of prosperity for all.
While persistent inflation could be a contributing factor in the general national unease, the Sialkot incident
involving the Sri Lankan operations manager tends to be a litmus test for the State to re-establish its firm writ
over some right-wing elements spiralling out of control. So in essence, unshackling Pakistan would largely
depend on the key question: Can Pakistan use the next twenty-five years, when it will reach the hundredth
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Political security is about the stability of social order. It is closely allied to military security and societal security.
When it comes to health security, only the right measures can ensure that the citizens of a particular state can
endure the hardships or otherwise build on steps needed that can ensure their economic progress, especially
when and if faced by evolving global health concerns. The COVID-19 pandemic amply proved the
importance of health security, not only for the developing nations for the developed states also. Pakistan’s NSP
is significant due to its timing and content. Regional security is fast evolving in the backdrop of a hasty US
withdrawal from Afghanistan. The situation in the country remains precarious due to the failing economy and
lack of basic amenities given empty banks and nearly “bank-corrupted” state institutions. On the other hand,
India continues to acquire advanced, and lethal weapon systems which are challenging the strategic stability of
the region. In my opinion, the presentation of Pakistan’s first formal NSP is a step in the right direction and it
must be debated vigorously at all levels before it is formally adopted by Parliament. This would help all other
ministries, departments, and institutions in formulating their strategies to achieve collective national aims,
objectives, and interests. Daily Times, January 3, 2022
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year of independence, to restructure not only its economy but rejuvenate its democratic energy and unshackle
its potential—to become a genuinely developed economy by 2047? For this to happen, the institutions that
rule, the political apparatus, the establishment, the political diaspora, the bureaucracy and the judiciary, will
need to jointly re-think the national vision, which fosters a prosperous and inclusive economy. They will
jointly have to set their minds to new development priorities, acknowledge the hard truths, and lay out the
clear choices and new ideas that Pakistan must adopt towards the goal of inclusive development and
international acceptability.
So, what does Pakistan really deserve? With half the Quaid’s vision already lost, will we keep on muddling
through the current course or do we somewhere possess the inherent resolve to course correct and try and
make Pakistan the state that its founding leader had envisioned? This is what will define the next 25 years and
whether or not we can restore sanity to pick-up ourselves and bring in the right leaders or continue on the
path of self-interest and placing concentrated wealth over larger national interest.
To be able to clearly understand and comprehend and without resorting to typical economic jargon about why
Pakistan’s economy in the 60s’, lauded as one of the most dynamic in the world, is now ailing, and what it will
take to fix it, the answers lie in some sweeping agendas of reforms in order to reinvigorate growth and share
the benefits more equitably, or in other words to make the country both more prosperous and happier. There
is this rather urgent and pressing case for Pakistan’s policymakers to fully and frontally confront long ignored
realities about the Pakistani economy—its fragility, structural inequality and the low levels of state capacity
which have been made especially visible in the ravages of COVID-19; the urgency to now finally place a
much-needed spotlight on challenging the current economic status-quo and to offer important and even
provocative policy prescriptions. If Pakistan is to come out of its current and ongoing economic impasse,
engaging with these provocations will be in finding the way back to sustainable growth and development.
Meaning, unleashing wide-ranging second-generation reforms in the Pakistani economy with the sole purpose
of reaching its full potential and delivering greater prosperity for its 230 million citizens by honestly grappling
with the real concerns on gender, climate, health, education, state capacity and other challenges that remain
unaddressed simply because the state never had the requisite resources and the capacity to look into them.
If Pakistan has to truly progress, then the urgency of the present moment, in the wake of Covid-19, has to be
grasped in a revolutionary way against a backdrop of worsening global climate, and at a time when a
manufacturing-led pathway to prosperity can no longer be taken for granted. Unless we create a happier, more
inclusive and prosperous society by the hundredth anniversary of independence and that too with a very
specific roadmap to attain it, things will disintegrate very quickly leading to a situation that may render itself
uncontrollable. The idea therefore should be to bring out the new possibilities of high-quality growth by
successfully managing today’s global concerns; climate change, greener operations, money laundering and
responsible financing and to undertake bold structural reforms that aim to displace the present obsolete policy
thinking and lay a strong emphasis on the urgency of mobilising the latent economic growth potential of our
women with the needed policy measures for their empowerment. The kind of needed reforms being referred
to are going to be both painful and painless. Pakistan should set aside its partisan divides and heed their wise
advice. In essence, the key would be to look outwards and to start locking into the US$80 trillion world
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Global economic development over the last 100 years teaches us an important lesson—through examples of
the European Union, China, the Asian Tiger economies and the others—on how progress must be an
amalgamation of economic growth and social prosperity, since neither can occur in isolation. We will have to
address the question of how Pakistan can use the next twenty-five years, up to the centennial year of
independence, to restructure not only its economy but rejuvenate its democratic energy and unshackle its
potential to become a genuinely developed economy by 2047. Unshackling Pakistan would require an
unshakeable and sustainable focus on key ideas such as restricting the state’s role to the universal provision of
fundamental necessities, affirmative action to enjoy the advantages of a strong female workforce, as well as
measures that ensure the demographic dividend is harvested.
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market. If Indians can compete successfully in global markets, so can we Pakistanis and if we bravely jump into
global markets, Pakistan’s economy could explode. The Nation, December 29, 2021
THE COMING OF FUTURE WARFARE
After three percent of the global population of the world was wiped off in World War TT, humanity has not
experienced that level of massacre, yet wars and low intensity conflicts continue to exact a heavy toll through
an altered nature and character of war. Some warfare experts claim that the nature of warfare is immutable
wherein belligerents grapple with the primordial instinct of violence to impose their will upon each other
while the character of war remains ephemeral, subject to changes in technology. The above notion has come
in for criticism in view of the altered nature and character of warfare in the digital age.
Technology is changing not only the grammar but the structure and prose of war. Despite our current focus
on a non-traditional notion of national security, traditional security remains the centerpiece of our national
security due to our peculiar geo-strategic location and adversarial big power politics. Perhaps this has been the
besetting sin of the fertile plains of the Subcontinent that attracted waves of predatory attacks by warlike
invaders from the north. A lesson internalised from two millennia old waves of conquests and migrations in the
Indus Valley is the need for a strong defence capability to fend off threats to human security.
The primordial violence in future wars, unlike past wars, is not going to target the means of war or the
industrial infrastructure alone but the people’s will to fight a just war. The wars of the future might be waged
by non-state proxies on behalf of an alien power which in turn would raise the ethical questions of flouting the
existing laws of wars to prosecute the just wars. The perception management to target the national will
residing more in the public domain rather than in government and armed forces’ domain as in the past would
pose unique challenges demanding the right skill sets in the armed forces as well as other national institutions.
The character of the wars is also changing to keep pace with the technological and sociological changes
shaping future wars.
According to British General Jonathan Shaw, technology is altering the nature of warfare by altering the
balance between the controllers of the violence and the perpetrators of violence. The ability of Artificial
Intelligence, quantum mechanics, and Big Data to reduce the OODA loop (Observe, orient, decide, act) and
give a decisive edge to technologically superior adversaries by reducing the time to act decisively is creating
new possibilities as well as risks. What if a modern-day Dr Strangelove lets slip the dogs of war without giving
adequate time to human judgment to assess the potential impact of the offensive action? The portents are
fraught with the risks of accidental nuclear conflicts and unintended wars if the technology is not reined in by
human judgment. The foretaste of things to come was experienced in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict where
weaponised drones showed the power of automated weapon systems. The future versions employing swarms
of nano drones, capable of seeking and destroying targets, autonomous of human control on ground as well as
in space, point towards the perils of automated warfare waged through autonomous weapon systems. The
need for ‘humanists’ instead of ‘technologists’ directing warfare therefore assumes the greatest importance in
the modern panoply of means of war giving space to human judgment instead of AI’s phenomenal power to
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The changes in the nature and character of war need therefore to be studied carefully in order to retain a
capability to buttress human security. The nature of war, according to Martin Van Creveld, is shifting away
from Clausewitz’s Trinitarian to non-Trinitarian warfare. In Trinitarian warfare, the armed forces waged wars
under direction of the government involving the will of the people. After the nuclear revolution, conventional
wars – especially between nuclear powers – have been replaced by unconventional conflicts spanning a wide
gamut of conflicts including guerilla wars, terrorism, limited conventional clashes, and hybrid wars targeting
important elements of national power potential like economy, national morale and cohesion. The hybrid
threats are altering the nature as well as character of wars by adding a non-kinetic dimension to the conflict
that is more amenable to non-kinetic response options compared to the traditional kinetic response.
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control the pace of warfare. New laws of war need to be crafted in response to the technologically-enabled
autonomy and lethality of dehumanised weapon platforms.
Since the digital age is democratising access to technologies, the risks of non-state or rogue actors accessing
lethal munitions highlight the need for digital technology’s amenability to human intervention. Perhaps a
global consensus is de rigueur to build ‘kill switch’ technologies in the future weapon platforms, especially the
lethal autonomous drone systems. According to a Rand study authored by Raphael S Cohen and others, the
enhancement of information warfare capacity, especially in grey zone warfare against hybrid threats along with
investment in human capital to provide leadership that can rise above the digital fog of war, is the need of the
hour. In view of the changing nature and character of war, the national security response needs to accord equal
weightage to conventional as well as gray zone warfare tailoring national security response to counter kinetic as
well as non-kinetic threats. The above entails a reappraisal of our leadership grooming regimen with the
military leadership exposed to statecraft and gray zone domains and the civilian leadership schooled in military
strategy and its dialectics with emerging technological trends. Since the changing nature of future warfare and
modified character demands skills spanning the entire gamut of national power potential, there is a need to
establish advisory institutions at national level combining civil and military competencies to help craft
wholesome national security and military strategies. The News, December 28, 2021
US POLICY DILEMMA IN AFGHANISTAN
Another pertinent factor that was at play was the game of narratives. The failure of the US in Afghanistan was
not an abrupt event. It had started long ago and ironically the United States was aware of it but never
acknowledged it. For the American people and the entire world, they projected the narrative of inching closer
to success day by day but the reality was far from it. In the guise of this constructed narrative, the US kept on
making miscalculations one after the other. The first miscalculation was to invest so carelessly in Afghanistan
without any check on where the money was going. The second miscalculation was to withdraw from
Afghanistan in haste. The war that Americans lost and Taliban won was not lost or won on military grounds. It
was a political contest that has been won politically by Taliban. Taliban did not use violence or military tactics
to push Americans outside Afghanistan. They went on conquering one region after the other without much
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There is only one decisive victory: the last.” These are the words of famous military strategist Clausewitz. The
United States spent $1 trillion, almost two decades, and claimed to have achieved the primary purpose in
Afghanistan that was defeating Al-Qaeda yet the end for Americans cannot be regarded as a “decisive victory”.
It is true that the initial goal of the United States was to defeat Al-Qaeda but it soon realized that the problem
is not Al-Qaeda alone. When the Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden to Americans, the Taliban
had already shown which side they have chosen. Now the Taliban were a problem too. Taliban were also
apparently defeated after the toppling of their government in the aftermath of 9/11 but now stability in
Afghanistan became a challenge for the world. The power vacuum that was created in Afghanistan could have
provided space for terrorist groups to rise and threaten the US again. The US, being the custodian of moral
principles, democracy and good governance, took up the role of a responsible hegemony. The goal shifted
from defeating Al-Qaeda to defeating the Taliban to state-building and nation-building in Afghanistan. The
end goal was noble, the means were not. State-building and nation-building are not possible through external
factors. It does not necessarily require huge resources and boots on the ground. The political change must
come from within. The problem lied in internal weaknesses. The US injected an abundance of resources in
the hope of establishing democracy, forming a stable government, ensuring fair elections, framing a strong
constitution and promoting peace and security. However, it failed to understand that money cannot ensure
these factors. The abundance of foreign resources resulted in a corrupt government and the democratization of
a tribal nation became a problem. For Afghans, tribal identities mattered more than the national identity under
a democratic system. The resources were not reaching the common people. There was a weak judiciary.
Violence could not be contained. The government lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the public. All these factors
made many people feel wistful about Taliban rule.
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EVOLVING PAKISTAN-SRI LANKA RELATIONS
History of the bilateral relations: The genesis of the Pakistan-Sri Lanka relations can be found in the cultural
connections of Islam and Buddhism. Islam came to the subcontinent in the early 8th century, following the
conquest of Sindh by Muhammad bin Qasim, the commander of the Muslim empire, who led an armed
campaign to rescue the widows of the Arab settlers in Ceylon (former name of Sri Lanka). Fast forward to the
mid-20th century; it is reported that the Muslims of Sri Lanka supported the cause of the All India Muslim
League for a separate homeland for the Muslims of the subcontinent. After Pakistan’s independence, East
Pakistan (now Bangladesh) constituted a Buddhist minority. On the other hand, Sri Lanka had 6.6 percent
Muslim population by the 1950s and currently has 9 percent Muslims. Archeological surveys have traced
various sights and symbols of Buddhist civilization and religion, primarily concentrated in Taxila, in the
northern Punjab. Pakistan has demonstrated due respect and appreciation for this heritage and have taken
measures to preserve the remnants of the Buddhist civilization and became the first country in 1956 to
commemorate the 2500th anniversary of Lord Buddha. Moreover, Pakistan also participated in the world
Buddhist conferences in Colombo starting from the 1950s. In 1976, Sri Lanka reciprocated the civilizational
gesture by naming a public ground in Colombo as Jinnah Maidan. Local governments in various regions of Sri
Lanka also arranged exhibitions of Buddhist antiques and relics from Pakistan, including the inauguration of
the Gandhara art exhibition arranged by the Pakistani community in Colombo. Notwithstanding, the
heartwarming historical connections, the cultural affinity got affected after the separation of East Pakistan in
1971 and has almost disappeared ever since the military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq (1977-87)
instrumentalised Islam on the national scale. As of now, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s promotion of religious
tourism has great potential to revive the cultural affinities and linkages that Pakistan had with other nations and
states. Nonetheless, one can find solace and take inspiration from the continued political, security and
economic bilateral interaction between the two states.
Political drivers of the relationship: Sri Lanka and Pakistan are members of the Commonwealth of Nations.
Both countries also regularly observe elections and seek to institutionalize the democratic norms and ideals as a
prerequisite for democratic governance. They were also members of the Colombo Plan and conveners of the
Bandung conferences, sharing the political stance against communism. When Sri Lanka assumed the
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resistance. The Afghan army trained by Americans and well equipped surrendered in the face of weakly
equipped Taliban. The local population welcomed the Taliban rule. It was a political victory for Taliban
attributed to the loss of faith in the Afghan government and the political will of the US to provide for Afghan
people. There was a battle of narratives and the only thing that mattered was that whose narrative is stronger.
Unites States and the Afghan government projected Taliban to be hardcore extremists who would revert the
country back to the Stone Age. On the other hand, Taliban kept on emphasizing the nature of corrupt Afghan
government. In the end, the Taliban narrative was strong enough to defeat the other narratives. It is true that
the US managed to attain its initial goals but what about the goal that it created itself over the period of time?
What about the reconstruction and state-building in Afghanistan? Is the world ready to work for the goodwill
of Afghan people and peace in the country? For once will anyone think sincerely about peace in Afghanistan?
Whether it was corrupt government or narrative building, the Taliban are a reality now. The international
community needs to find a way to deal with them. The façade of establishing peace in Afghanistan for the past
twenty years has taught one very important lesson that violence does not end violence. There should be a
political solution to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan. The actors who have stakes in Afghanistan should
forget about pursuing their national interest and focus on rebuilding peace in the region. It looks convenient
to contest your enemy in a foreign land but people of that country are suffering. The flag bearers of protection
of human rights should now play their role carefully. Although the world is not ready to fund the Taliban
government until they qualify on certain merits, yet controlled financial aid can be poured into the country
through different organizations to primarily assist the Afghan people. The major powers should truly take
calculated and responsible steps in order to bring peace to Afghanistan. Pakistan Observer, December 29, 2021
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chairmanship of the Non-aligned Movement (NAM), Pakistan became its full-fledged member in 1979.
Generally, there have been infrequent visits of the political heads of states from the two sides. Relations with
Sri Lanka may well be analyzed in the general framework of Pakistan’s Indo-Pacific policy, which tends to
vary from being non-existent to once in five-year term engagement. The only exception may have been the
defense and security aspects of the relationship.
Significance of the bilateral relationship in economy: Pakistan has Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with only
three countries, China, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka. Interestingly, it is only with Sri Lanka that Pakistan a trade
surplus. Both countries signed the FTA in 2002 that came into effect in 2005, and the phasing out process by
the two countries ended in 2010. Sri Lanka got duty-free access over the 206 items, including tea, rubber, and
coconuts. Pakistan received zero-tariff concessions over 102 articles, including oranges, basmati rice, and
engineering products. Pakistan’s top three exports to Sri Lanka include cotton, pharmaceutical goods, and
mineral manufactured items. Sri Lanka’s top three exports to Pakistan have been a) ships, boats and floating
materials; b) vegetable items, including tea, coffee, and pulses; and, c) rubber or rubber-made items. Although,
the financial value of the economic relationship may appear to be modest, the diplomatic significance of the
FTA is enormous given that it has the potential to strengthen bilateral ties of Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
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Defense and Security Links of the Relationship: Almost all the smaller South Asian states are confronted with
the dire consequences of India’s offensive military doctrines and strategies towards neighboring states. Given,
India’s preponderance and aspirations to become a regional hegemon, these concerns can only be dismissed at
one’s own peril. Sri Lanka’s northern region and India’s southern region is inhibited by the Tamil populations.
It is also an open secret that New Delhi exerts political influence so as to pressurize Colombo to ensure
political and economic rights of the Lankan Tamils and has covertly fueled the Tamil uprisings in Sri Lanka.
The threat from India might have propelled Sri Lanka to join the U.S.-led alliance of SEATO and CENTO,
just like Pakistan which also saw these US-led pacts as a means to bolster its security against India. Later, during
the 1971 crisis in East Pakistan, when India blocked West Pakistan’s overflight through the Indian airspace, Sri
Lanka stepped in and granted the Pakistani civilian and military airplanes stopover and landing rights. However,
the author could not find any evidence of military aircrafts making stopovers in Sri Lanka for refueling or other
services during war in late 1971. Furthermore, Sri Lanka has observed a neutral stance on the Kashmir issue
and India-Pakistan’s conflict. That leaves us with the single essential element of security, namely terrorism that
set the tone of relations or laid the foundation for an expansion in the bilateral defense ties of Pakistan and Sri
Lanka. The Tamils of the northern and eastern parts of Sri Lanka formed a rebel group, Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in 1975, for curving out a separate state for the Tamil population. Pakistan has supplied
Sri Lanka with fighter jets and military training and support that successfully defeated the LTTE terrorists.
Later, when Pakistan was engulfed in the terrorist strikes nationwide, from 2007 to 2014, it reportedly sought
Sri Lanka’s support in military training for its counter-insurgency operations. The cooperation in getting rid of
terrorism paved the way for strong defense relations between the two countries. In 2016, Pakistan signed an
agreement with Sri Lanka to provide eight JF-17 fighter aircraft. Pakistani and Sri Lankan armed and naval
forces have also been through port calls, military, and defense workshops and seminars. Later in 2020, during
his visit to Sri Lanka, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has remained focused on establishing
strategic ties with Sri Lanka and has invited it to join Quad- a multilateral alliance forged to ensure security in
Indian Ocean’ region. The alliance is comprised of Australia, India, Japan and US. Pompeo stated, “We see
from bad deals, violations of sovereignty and lawlessness on land and sea that the Chinese Communist Party is
a predator, and the United States comes in a different way, we come as a friend, and as a partner”. Significantly,
when Sri Lanka and China agreed to lease the Hambantota port to Sri Lanka for 99 years, other states like
Japan and India tried to initiate similar projects for strategic objectives. In contrast, Pakistan did not seek to
press Sri Lanka or other smaller regional states in pursuit of its strategic interests through military initiatives like
the Indo-Pacific strategy. Hence, a shared diplomatic stance on emerging regional security and strategic
dynamics has played a crucial role in further advancing their defense ties. Another diplomatically significant but
financially low-valued aspect of the relationship might be economic cooperation.
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Imran Khan’s Sri Lanka visit: Prime Minister Imran Khan’s first visit to Sri Lanka in February 2021 is viewed
from the prism of India’s offensive strategy towards regional states and Pakistan’s proactive strategy aimed at
regional stability. During the two-day visit Imran Khan highlighted the prospects of a bilateral strategic
partnership between Islamabad and Colombo.
PM Khan urged his counterpart to join the
multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI). While addressing a joint press conference with his Sri Lankan counterpart Mahinda
Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “My visit aims to strengthen bilateral relationship [with Sri Lanka],
especially trade and economic ties through enhanced connectivity.”
During the visit, both states agreed to further enhance bilateral relations through investment, trade, technology,
science, tourism and culture and agreed to boost connectivity to achieve this end. Thus, both states signed
several Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) pertaining to these areas of mutual interests. The MoUs
signed between Pakistan and Sri Lanka during Imran Khan’s February visit include:
1) MoU on cooperation in tourism.
2) MoU between the Boards of Investment.
3) MoU between Sri Lanka’s Industrial Technology Institute (ITI) and Karachi University’s International
Centre for Chemical and Biological Sciences.
4) The intent of cooperation between ITI and Comsats University Islamabad.
Subsequently, Pakistan and Sri Lanka agreed to collaborate in higher education. Pakistan announce 100
scholarships for Sri Lankan students as part of the Pakistan-Sri Lanka Higher Education Cooperation
Programme.
Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka have been targets of radical terrorist groups and extremism due to multiple
endogenous and exogenous factors. These include terror financing by hostile countries like India to foment
unrest and exploitation of internal sectarian cleavages by vested interest groups for parochial purposes.
Predictably, the turmoil and civil war in Afghanistan had a spillover impact on regional security. Escalating
terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka instigate instability and insecurity in the country. During his visit, Prime Minister
Imran Khan announced a US$ 50 million for defense purchases. The two countries also agreed to increase
cooperation in countering terrorism and systematic crimes. Pakistan has initiated a series of military operations
and effectively countered the menace of terrorism and extremism. Thus Pakistan can help Sri Lanka in
combating terrorism and extremism drawing on its own experience. In this regard, Pakistan can help by
sharing expertise in developing an effective mechanism to counter-terrorism and strengthening criminal justice
institutions. In fact, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are brought together among others by their geopolitical, economic,
and security interests in the region. Therefore, Pakistan desires to enhance ties with Sri Lanka through
economic and regional connectivity and this can be ensured if Sri Lanka becomes part of CPEC. This will help
cement the ties and enable the two countries to beneficially promote regional connectivity and achieve
economic growth and development. .
Consequently, the strategic troika comprising Pakistan-Sri Lanka and China can offset the growing concerns of
regional states regarding Quad. Therefore, evolving Pakistan and Sri Lanka ties are marked as more practical
and focused on bilateral cooperation aimed at overcoming the emerging geo-economic challenges. In
particular, Pakistan’s assistance to Sri Lanka during civil war highlights the tactical or strategic nature of the
relations. In short, the Pakistan-Sri Lanka axis will further grow through bilateral cooperation; additionally,
the prospects to connect China’s CPEC projects, economic and military engagements highlights that bilateral
relations can be a game-changer in the region. The growing role of India in the security architecture of the
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5) MoU between University of Colombo and Lahore School of Economics.
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region and Indo-US strategic alliance is the concern of all the South Asian states. Thus, to maintain regional
stability and further enhance bilateral cooperation following policy measures are recommended:
Policy Recommendations
Increased State level Visits: The visits must aim to enhance and develop bilateral relations in the areas
ranging from human rights, economy, trade, environmental protection, climate change, cultural contacts
etc. Therefore, frequent state to state visits between Islamabad and Colombo can play a significant role in
further improving economic, political and military ties.
2.
Regional Cooperation through SAARC: Cooperative regional organizations engaging in non-political or
low-political spheres such as technical, social, economic, cultural and scientific sectors provide vastly
practical opportunities for building effective cooperation among the member states. Hence, it can play an
effective role in bilateral cooperation and regional development. Khan’s vision of regional connectivity
can be achieved through SAARC because of the mutual advantage for the participating states.
3.
Enhanced cooperation in security, counter-terrorism and organized crime: Pakistan and Sri Lanka are the
victims of terrorism and extremism. A bilateral security framework based on defense cooperation can
provide adequate solutions to existing terrorism and regional security challenges.
4.
Sports Diplomacy: Sports can be used as a political tool to enhance bilateral relations among states. Cricket
is the most famous and widely played game in South Asia and can be used as a political tool to strengthen
bilateral diplomatic relations. Even during his visit to Sri Lanka, Prime Minister Imran Khan also exercised
sports diplomacy and had an interactive session with the sports community of Sri Lanka.
Conclusion: Pakistan-Sri Lanka relations are based on cultural links, defense cooperation, and economic
diplomacy. All of these segments of the relationship operate at a low scale currently. Both countries can
coordinate to expand, deepen and strengthen each of these elements, given that the political will leads to
policy formulation and execution. Sri Lanka will indeed face pressure from India to expand ties with regional
states, but Colombo can find a balance, given its experience of doing so between China and India. Pakistan
should revive the tradition of commemorating the anniversary of Lord Buddha and further advertise its
Buddhist tourism sites. Both countries can also exploit the prevailing FTA and expand the bilateral trade. All of
it only demands further policy reorientation. Modern Diplomacy, December 29, 2021
BRICS+2.0: INTEGRATION RELOADED
The coming of China’s chairmanship in the BRICS grouping in 2022 is likely to provide a fresh impulse to
the BRICS+ initiative that was launched during the Xiamen summit in 2017. A lot has changed in the course
of this 5-year period and, if anything, these developments have reinforced the need for BRICS countries to
reach out to the Global South economies and to advance their vision of a more balanced global governance.
The various modalities of the BRICS+ framework discussed in the preceding years increasingly point to the
relevance of a regional approach that prioritizes greater cooperation between regional integration arrangements
where BRICS economies are members as well as their respective regional development institutions.
What happened in the span of the 5 years between China’s chairmanship in BRICS in 2017 and 2022? It
appears that a lot of the developments in the BRICS universe were associated with the advancement of
regional initiatives:
1.
The launching of the RCEP project led by China and the ASEAN economies
2.
The launching of the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA)
3.
BRICS+ summit in South Africa, with invitees being representatives of regional blocs from the Global
South
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1.
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4.
The signing of a memorandum on understanding between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and
MERCOSUR (in 2018) as well as between the EAEU and ASEAN (2018)
5.
The creation of regional centers of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) in South Africa, Brazil
and Russia.
6.
Approval of the expansion in the membership of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) to include
Bangladesh and Uruguay — the regional partners of India and Brazil respectively
One of the ways to upgrade/modernize this BRICS+ concept into a “BRICS+ 2.0” would be to take on
board some of the recent proposals from the World Economic Forum (WEF) concerning the modalities of
economic alliances in the modern world. The proposed governance structure (as reflected in the World
Economic Forum report entitled “Globalization 4.0 Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age of the
Fourth Industrial Revolution”) was characterized by greater flexibility at various levels of governance to
pursue plurilateral agreements in specific sectors without the need to ensure complete support for new
liberalization initiatives from all countries. In the context of the BRICS+ circle such a framework may leave
open the possibility for bilateral and plurilateral agreements to complement the core network of regional
alliances formed by BRICS countries and their respective regional neighbours. Ultimately, the value of the
BRICS+ paradigm is not in extending the BRICS countries’ reach or ambition — it is about a qualitative
change in the pattern of economic development in the Global South. Rather than competing one by one to
edge closer to the model of advanced Western economies, the BRICS+ paradigm focusses BRICS countries
efforts towards cooperating in building ties with their regional partners and building a common platform for
the integration of developing nations into the global economy. Compared to the original BRICS format,
BRICS+ has the advantage of stronger “gravitational ties” at the level of regions that are more massive (and
hence exert a stronger gravitational pull in line with the indications of the economic “gravity model” à la
Tinbergen) than the respective five BRICS economies. Another important advantage of the BRICS+
framework is greater scope for connectivity projects, which is something that is currently pursued via the
creation of BRICS NDB regional centres and the expansion of BRICS NDB membership to include BRICS
regional neighbours such as Bangladesh and Uruguay. There is far less scope for such connectivity to be
pursued in the more narrow and geographically more separated BRICS space.
The BRICS+ also increases the optionality and the scope of alliances that may be pursued by BRICS countries
across the Global South economic space. Moreover, BRICS+ may be the only viable and harmonized format
for BRICS to advance common initiatives in the sphere of economic integration, since the majority of BRICS
economies now conduct their trade policy only in the framework of their respective regional integration
arrangements. This is the case in particular with Brazil (MERCOSUR), Russia (EAEU), South Africa
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There is also the Covid pandemic that has rendered the global economy more fragmented and regionalized.
Another important development of the past several years is the emergence of regional/trans-regional blocs
such as the QUAD and AUKUS. The QUAD in particular aims to expand its purview from military
cooperation to economic policy matters within the format of an enlarged QUAD+. In the structural sphere a
key trend of the past several years is the emergence of the “platform economy”, with corporate platforms
becoming the leading engines of growth and innovation. Similar trends are also observed at the regional level,
with mega-regional integration arrangements serving as platforms for the aggregation of the multitudes of
bilateral and regional FTAs. All these developments point to the expediency of further advancing the BRICS+
platform on the basis of cooperation among regional integration arrangements and their development
institutions where BRICS countries are members. Such a platform could have the BEAMS concept as its core
— namely cooperation among the key regional integration initiatives of BRICS economies such as BIMSTEC,
EAEU, ASEAN-China FTA, Mercosur and SADC/SACU. This circle of cooperation could
be complemented by platforms between regional development banks/regional financing arrangements and
NDB/BRICS CRA respectively.
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(SADC/SACU). To put this more bluntly, the regional BRICS+ format is the only feasible platform for
economic integration alliances to be finally launched among the BRICS countries after an extended period of
limited economic advances in the sphere of common economic integration. It may be time then for BRICS to
effect a transition to a consistent regional format that could open the possibilities for a new phase of alliances
across the wide economic terrain of the Global South. Modern Diplomacy, December 27, 2021
RUSSIA IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
Keeping all these factors in mind, one could conclude that instead of trying to articulate an all-inclusive ‘Putin
doctrine’ for the region, it would be appropriate to look at the Russian policy as an attempt to balance a
number of diverging principles, goals, priorities and modes of engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean. In
some cases, this balance turns out to be quite successful; in other cases, it leads to unforeseen complications and
rising political risks. Let us outline some of the most important balancing dilemmas that contemporary Russian
policies implicitly or explicitly contain.
Global vs Regional Priorities: The Kremlin’s approach to the region has always depended to a certain degree
on Russia’s overall relations with the West; any significant ups or downs in these relations have produced
direct and visible implications for the Russian posture in the Eastern Mediterranean. For example, it would not
be an over-exaggeration to argue that the initial Russian military engagement in Syria in the autumn of 2015
had a significant ‘pedagogical’ dimension—after a spectacular Western failure in Libya and a less than
impressive US performance in Iraq, Vladimir Putin clearly intended to teach the West how to ‘fix’ a MENA
country. Particularly in the aftermath of the acute crisis in and around Ukraine, it was very important for the
Kremlin to demonstrate that in the Eastern Mediterranean Russia could become not a part of the problem, but
rather a part of the solution.
As it turned out, this initial plan did not work—neither in Syria, nor in Libya later on. The Russian political
and especially military presence in the region very soon became yet another complicating factor in uneasy
relations between Moscow and Western capitals. Therefore, the Kremlin’s balance of priorities gradually
shifted from trying to forge a deal with global players to engaging regional actors—such as Damascus, Ankara,
Tehran, Riyadh, Cairo, and so on. This shift of Russia’s priorities took place in parallel with a gradual decline
of the US interest in the region and with mostly unsuccessful attempts by the EU to come up with a
consolidated European approach to the Eastern Mediterranean. Apparently, today Moscow is not ready to
jeopardise its numerous regional partnerships for the sake of better relations with the United States or the
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Strictly speaking, Russia is not an Eastern Mediterranean country. It does not have direct access to the
Mediterranean Sea; its most important strategic and economic interests belong to other parts of the world, such
as the North Atlantic or East Asia. However, for a long time Russia has been trying to make its presence in the
region visible; this continuous interest goes back to at least the 18th century and it results from a variety of
geopolitical, economic, strategic, religious and cultural reasons. Today Moscow arguably enjoys more visibility
here than even the Soviet Union did at the peak of its global outreach. Moreover, Vladimir Putin can present
the Kremlin’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean as one of the most spectacular and unquestionable
personal foreign policy accomplishments. Still, can one argue that Russia has a consistent and comprehensive
strategic approach to the region? To forge and to sustain such an approach would be a challenging task for a
number of reasons. First, the Eastern Mediterranean is simply too large and too diverse to have a ‘one size fits
all’ pattern to multiple crises and conflicts here. Second, Russia’s capabilities in the region—especially in the
economic domain and in soft power tools—are quite limited and do not allow Moscow to pursue a long-term
strategy guided by a compelling comprehensive vision of the region’s future. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia
has no social and economic model that it could offer nations of the region to follow and imitate. Third,
Russia’s approaches to specific countries in the Eastern Mediterranean reflect a complex interaction of various
political, economic and other group interests in Moscow; the exact balance of these interests may fluctuate
from one country to another and from one stage of the Russian engagement to another.
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European Union. So far, such an approach turned out to be generally productive, but it might lose its
efficiency if the West gets more focused on the region and invests more resources and political capital in
eroding Russian partnerships (e.g. by incentivising Turkey to become a more disciplined member of the
NATO Alliance).
Standing by Legitimacy vs Promoting Change: Russian leadership has traditionally taken a consistently
legalistic approach to political developments in the world at large and in the Eastern Mediterranean region in
particular. It has explicitly opposed any attempts at regime change, even if in the Kremlin they had many
reservations about the regime in question. Russia did not welcome the Arab Spring in 2011, it denounced the
violent overthrows of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. Many Russian scholars
believe that the events of the Arab Spring had a profound impact on Vladimir Putin’s thinking and triggered
his decision to return to the Kremlin in 2012. Moscow later supported Bashar Assad in Syria arguing that he
represented the only legitimate power in the country. Putin was one of the first foreign leaders to support
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the 15 July 2016 coup d’état attempt in his country.
Supporting Secularism vs Islamism: In most cases, in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as in other parts of the
world, Russia prefers secular regimes to Islamists, even if the latter come to power through open and
democratic elections. This preference might be rooted in the Kremlin’s own experience with Islamists in the
Northern Caucasus and in other predominantly Muslim regions of the Russian Federation. There seems to be
an instinctive fear of even moderate Islamism, not to mention its more fundamentalist and radical incarnations.
Moscow was reluctant to take the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood off its list of terrorist organisations even after
this movement had come to power in Cairo and its candidate Mohamed Morsi had become Egypt’s president.
This is the same reluctance we now see regarding the possible formal delisting of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Still, there are important deviations from this general rule and even explicit exceptions from it. Sometimes, the
Kremlin seems to care more about the declaratory statements of its partners in the region rather than their
actual practice. For instance, in Libya Russia supported Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar partially because he
positioned himself as a committed opponent of Islamism though he had Salafi units in his army and explicitly
associated himself with various fundamentalist clergymen. Moreover, the Kremlin maintains open
communication lines to Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Lebanon though both are Islamic fundamentalists.
The Islamic Republic of Iran can hardly be qualified a secular state, etc. At the end of the day, the future of
Russian influence in the Eastern Mediterranean will depend largely on the ability or inability of Moscow to
reach out to moderate Islamic groups in the region.
Striving for Presence vs Control: The Russian leadership is fully aware of the fact that Russia’s economic,
military and political resources that it can allocate to the Eastern Mediterranean are quite limited in comparison
to what some other international actors, especially the United States and the European Union (but also China
and even Gulf states), can bring to the region. Therefore, in most cases the Kremlin seeks a seat at the table,
but it has no ambitions to chair the meeting unilaterally. This is the case with the Middle East Peace Process,
where Russia remains one of the consistent champions of the Quartet format; this is also the case in Libya and
in Afghanistan too. Participation rather than control gives Russia a say in many regional matters without
imposing on Moscow the full responsibility for everything that happens in this or that corner of the region.
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However, this insistence on the principle of legitimacy has demonstrated its limitations. For instance, in Libya
the Kremlin supported Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar though his legitimacy was clearly inferior to that of the
Fayez al-Sarraj led Government of National Accord recognised by the United Nations. Neither did Moscow
voice its concerns about the Taliban replacing the legitimate government in Kabul. It seems that the Kremlin
applies its legalistic approach to primarily political leaders in the region capable of retaining not only a de jure,
but also a de facto control over territories of their respective countries. In other words, Russia stands not so
much for legitimacy per se, but rather for ‘order and stability’, which are perceived as the most important
values and indispensable sources of regime legitimacy.
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Syria stands out as a remarkable exception from the rule. Though Moscow must coordinate its military
activities in this country with Tehran and Ankara within the multilateral Astana Process, in Syria the Kremlin
is apparently looking for control rather than for mere presence. This mode of Russia’s operations is unique for
its policies in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its efficiency is questionable: many experts in Russia argue that in
practical terms Bashar Assad often manipulates the Kremlin, not the other way round. It is hard to imagine that
Russia would try to impose its ‘control’ on any other Eastern Mediterranean state in the near future.
Favouring Geoeconomics vs Geopolitics: Though Russian leaders like to talk about their country as a global
‘security provider’, in most cases, Russia would like to see its engagement with the Eastern Mediterranean as
economically profitable. Moscow has strong economic ties to Turkey, which at least partially explains a
remarkable resilience of Russian-Turkish political relations despite a lot of important issues on which Moscow
consistently disagrees with Ankara. Among Arab nations of the region, Russia focuses mostly on relatively
wealthy countries like Iraq, Egypt and Algeria, that can become valuable consumers of Russia’s military
hardware and agricultural exports or can offer lucrative opportunities to Russian energy and infrastructure
companies. One can argue that the Russian engagement in Libya had geoeconomic considerations—Libya is a
rich country capable of paying for its imports and development projects in hard cash.
Emphasising State vs “Private” Engagement: Russia is well-known for its highly statist approach to
international relations. The Kremlin heavily relies on summit diplomacy, state- to-state agreements, intense
interactions between bureaucrats representing various ministers and other governmental agencies. Non-state
actors—both in the private and civil society sectors—are usually expected to follow state agreements and stay
in line with state policies. This approach can be particularly efficient in dealing with authoritarian regimes
trying to fully control both private business and civil society institutions. The downside of this approach is that
quite often the state-to-state dimension remains much more advanced than any social and humanitarian
interaction conducted at the level of non-state actors. Intense and multifaceted interactions between societies
do not always compliment interactions at the top political levels.
However, recently Moscow has tried to diversify its kit of foreign policy instruments in the region, allowing
private and semi-private groups and organisations to play a more visible and more autonomous role. Allegedly,
in Libya the Russian leadership made a strategic decision to outsource a significant part of its activities in this
country to private military companies (the so-called “Wagner Group”). Moscow allegedly applied a similar
pattern, though on a smaller scale, in the North of Syria (Deir ez-Zor). This shift allows the Kremlin to
distance itself from certain high-risk operations on the ground without losing the overall control over private
groups’ operations. Prominent Islamic figures from Russia—the most visible is Ramzan Kadyrov from
Chechnya—are now making strong statements about developments in the region and might even pursue their
own policies in places like Syria or even Afghanistan. It is not clear to what extent these statements and politics
are coordinated with the Russian Foreign Ministry.
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Here Syria again stands out as a noticeable exception. Though Moscow tries very hard to get some economic
returns on its political and military investments in this country, it seems that this goal is not easy to
reach—particularly now with Damascus exposed to multiple US and EU economic sanctions. Experts assess
the overall Russian annual spending in Syria at the level of $ 1-2 billion, which is not a prohibitively high cost
for the Kremlin. Still, it would be difficult to imagine Russian involvement in Syria turning into an
economically profitable project any time soon. Given the mounting social and economic problems at home
and the Russian public focusing more and more on the domestic agenda, it seems logical that in the nearest
future Russia will continue to prioritise its economic interests over geopolitical ambitions in the Eastern
Mediterranean. This approach might make Moscow more receptive to potential partnerships with external
players willing to shoulder Russia’s political and military engagement with economic and financial resources
that the Kremlin does not have at its disposal.
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Working with Everybody vs Taking Sides: One of the comparative advantages that Russia enjoys in the
Eastern Mediterranean is its ability to maintain constructive relations with the opposite sides of regional
conflicts: with Sunni and Shia, Iranians and Saudis, Israelis and Palestinians, Turks and Kurds, UAE and Qatar,
and so on. Doing that, Moscow keeps its political investment portfolio diversified and hopes to benefit from
any plausible outcome of the conflict in question. On top of that, this unique position allows Moscow to claim
the role of an honest broker—at least, in some situations. It should also be noted that the Kremlin can always
dig into a significant pool of highly qualified Russian experts on the region with a deep knowledge of various
countries, ethnic and religious groups. This helps Moscow to avoid some of the blunders often committed by
other overseas powers operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.
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Nevertheless, the position of a mediator might be difficult to sustain when the conflict escalates, the fighting
sides raise stakes and push Moscow for more assistance. For instance, the close partnership with Bashar Assad in
Syria arguably jeopardised Russia’s long-term friendly relations with Syrian Kurds, and the Russian-Iranian
partnership in Syria has become a major complicating factor in Russian-Israeli relations. Continued attempts to
take an equidistant position might erode trust for Russia on both sides and might generate complaints and
grievances about an alleged Russian inconsistency and even cynicism. However, the alternative—a firm and
unconditional support of one side in the conflict (e.g. standing by Bashar Assad in Syria)—has a number of its
own shortcomings and liabilities. In summary, the art of balancing its foreign policy objectives, foreign policy
tools and multiple regional partners in the Eastern Mediterranean requires a very calibrated and fine-tuned
approach to every engagement in the region. So far, the Kremlin has managed to keep associated risks under
control. Still, it faces quite a bumpy road ahead. A lot will depend on factors beyond Russia’s control—most
importantly, on the regional security dynamics, on successes and failures of state building efforts in the Eastern
Mediterranean and on the level and mode of engagement by the main non-regional actors like the US, the EU
and China. Modern Diplomacy, December 27, 2021