OPTION AND OPTION PRICING Kelvin Harrison Nzowa CPA(T), Bcom Finance, MFA-OG (UDSM) Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 1 Basic concept of option Terminologies used in describing options Uses of option Types of options Call and Put options and their payoffs How options are traded and settled Option valuation and pricing Implied volatility Index options Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 2 This topic is aimed understanding of: at providing an Meaning and types of options Intrinsic value and time value of an option Put and call options – payoff Basic concepts of option Pricing models Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 3 Option is the financial derivative that represent a contract sold by one party(option writer) to another party(option holder). The contract offers the right but not the obligation, to buy(call) or sell(put) a security or another financial asset at an agreed- upon price during a certain period of time. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 4 Strike price: Is the predetermined price at the time of buying/writing of an option at which it can be exercised. Strike Date/Maturity Date: Is the valid date/time when the option can be exercised. American option; may be exercised anytime up to the expiration date inclusive. European option: may be exercised only on the expiration date. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 5 Call option: Gives a right but no obligation to buy the underlying asset at predetermined price within specified interval of time. Put option: Gives a right but no obligation to sell the underlying asset at pre-determined price within a specified interval of time. Option Buyer/Holder: Is the person who obtain the right but no obligation to buy or sell the option. The right is obtained at expense of premium. Writer or seller: one who confers the right and undertake the obligation to the holder. Premium: while conferring a right to a holder, who is under no obligation to perform, the writer is entitled to charge a fee upfront. This upfront amount is called premium, This is paid by the holder to the writer of an option. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 6 Source of additional income for the portfolio of an investor with a large portfolio of securities. Leverage: ability to control more securities than could be done with realistic margin requirement. Change the risk complexion of a portfolio of securities. A manager can undertake the quantity of risk that he feels appropriate at a point of time, also they give flexibility on deciding the amount of risk one is willing to assume. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 7 Call option Gives a right but not obligation to buy an underlying asset at a pre-determined price within the specified time. Put option Gives a right but not obligation to sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within the specified time . Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 8 Call option contract is profitable to exercise if the spot price of the underlying asset has gone beyond the strike price. Put option contract is worth executing if the strike price is greater than the price of underlying asset. Options are zero-sum game; the gain of the holder is the loss of the writer and vice versa Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 9 When the underlying stock moves up in price call do well Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 10 When the underlying stock drops in price put do well Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 11 Depending upon the pay off of the options, we have the following moneyness conditions: At-The-Money will always result in no cash flow At any time In-The-Money options are those which if exercised would result in positive cash flow to the holder. Similarly Out-Of-Money options would result in cash outflow if exercised. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 12 For Call options: Spot price = strike price (At The Money) Spot price > strike price (In The Money) Spot price < strike price (Out Of Money) For Put Options: Spot price = strike price (At The Money) Strike price > Spot price (In The Money) Strike price < spot price (Out Of Money) Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 13 The profit potential of puts and call Market price behaviour of the underlying equity is most important variable that derive any significant moves in the price of the option and which in turn determine the option profit potential. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 14 The valuation of the option i.e. the premium payable by the holder is dependent upon several factors; viewed in different ways. Therefore the price of an option has two components called the intrinsic value and time value. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 15 Intrinsic value is the money the holder would get upon exercise. The fundamental value of put or call depend ultimately on exercise price and prevailing market price of the underlying asset. V of a Call=(MP-SPC) x 100 Where: V= Fundamental value MP= Market price SPC= Strike price on call option Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 16 V of a put = (SPP-MP) X 100 Where: SPP is strike price of a put option MP is the market price NOTE: The put has value so long as market price of underlying asset is less than the strike price stipulated on the put Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 17 The value attached to the chances that strike price will be priced in times to come before expiry of the option contract. TV of an Option = Actual price- intrinsic value Time value is the excess of actual value over intrincsic value, it can be at least zero but not negative. A rational investor would pay this value over its current exercise value based on the probability it will incre in value before expiry. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 18 The following are some key variables that affects option price: Current stock price Exercise price Volatility Interest rates Cash dividends Time to expiration Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 19 As the current stock price goes up, the higher the probability that the call will be in the money. As a result, the call price will increase. The effect will be in the opposite direction for a put. As the stock price goes up, there is a lower probability that the put will be in the money. So the put price will decrease. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 20 The higher the exercise price, the lower the probability that the call will be in the money. The call prices will decrease as the exercise prices increase. For the put, the effect runs in the opposite direction. A higher exercise price means that there is higher probability that the put will be in the money. So the put price increases as the exercise price increases. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 21 Both the call and put will increase in price as the underlying asset becomes more volatile. The buyer of the option receives full benefit of favourable outcomes but avoids the unfavourable ones (option price value has zero value). Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 22 The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value of the exercise price. As a result, the value of the call will increase. The decrease in the present value of the exercise price will adversely affect the price of the put option. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 23 On ex-dividend dates, the stock price will fall by the amount of the dividend. Therefore, the higher the dividends, the lower the value of a call relative to the stock. As more dividends are paid out, the stock price will jump down on the ex-date which is exactly what you are looking for with a put. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 24 Logically, chances of achieving the desired outcome improve if there is more time available in hand. Farther the expiration date, more valuable is the option, because the chances of approaching the strike price become higher. If the time available is less, then the option is less valuable. Both Put and Call options benefits from long time of expiration. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 25 FOLLOWING IS THE SUMMARY OF THE VARIOUS FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE OPTION PRICE VARIABLE (Increasing) CALL OPTION PUT OPTION Price of underlying asset INCREASE DECREASE Strike price DECREASE INCREASE Time for Expiration INCREASE INCREASE Volatility INCREASE INCREASE Risk-free Rate INCREASE DECREASE Dividends DECREASE INCREASE Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 26 There exists a relationship in the prices of call and put known by the name of put call parity, which is derived on the principle of no arbitrage. For the same underlying asset, exercise price and time to expiry, the call price would exceed the put price by differential of spot price and the present value of exercise price. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 27 Let derive an important relationship between p and c with consideration of the following portfolio; Portfolio A: one European call option plus an amount of cash equal to Xe-rT Portfolio C: one European put plus one share Both are worth max(ST, K) at expiration of options. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 28 Because options are European, portfolios therefore must have identical values today. The above relationship is known as put -call parity This means that, the value of European call with a certain X and T can be deduced from the value of European put with the same X and T and vice versa Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 29 Suppose that the stock price is $31, the exercise price is $30, the risk-free interest rate is 10% per annum, the 3-month European call option is $3, and the price of a 3-month European put option is $2.25. in this case, Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 30 Portfolio C is overpriced relative to portfolio A, this means there exist arbitrage opportunities. The correct arbitrage strategy is to buy securities in portfolio A and short securities in portfolio C. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 31 American options provide for early exercise of the option. It is never optimal to exercise the American call prior to maturity because one loses the time value. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 32 In case a stock pays dividend of “q” then put call parity would stand modified with the spot price adjusted for present value of dividend. Since the stock price falls by the value of dividend on the ex-dividend date it is analogous to say that current price of the stock be adjusted for the present value of the dividend. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 33 In case options on currencies the underlying asset would be foreign currency. The underlying asset, the foreign currency in question is like a dividend paying asset that yields risk-free interest rate in foreign currency. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 34 In this presentation we will discuss two models responsible for option pricing. The determination of option value has raised concern to many scholars. Currently we have several models which are used in the pricing of options. Most of them are restricted to some factors in order to bear the pricing logic. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 35 • The binomial option pricing model is an option valuation method developed by Cox in 1979.It is very simple model that uses iterative procedure to price option ,allowing the specification of nodes, or point in time during the time span between the valuation date and option expiration date. • Is a numerical method that estimates the value of option. It is a very flexible model to value options that are not regularly traded or are specifically traded/negotiated between contracting parties. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 36 • The theoretical fair value is then compared to actual price and Level whether the option is underpriced, overpriced or correctly priced. It based on the use of more computation procedure. • It is called binomial because it assume that during the most period of time share price will go to only one of two values. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 37 Assume that the CRDB stock sells at So = 300. We also assume an investment horizon of one year and at the end of investment period S1 the stock price can either be 25% up i.e. TZS 375 or 20% down i.e. TZS 240. Both prices cannot move in both direction instantly and thus we cant assume both movements. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 38 at s1 s1 = 375 so = 300 s1 = 240 Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 39 Let now attempt to value ATM European call with strike price X of TZS 300 and time to maturity of one year. Remember that the maximum value accepted is (s-x) and 0. So if stock price moves to 375 the payoff would be 375-300 = 75 and if the price of the stock goes down to 240 the call expires worthless. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 40 One naïve approach to value the call is to find the expected value of stock and find the expected value of the call at t = 1. The value of the call is then discounted at t= 0 Expected value of the underlying stock is obtained through probabilities of both branches of the binomial model. Remember: if p(upward movement) = p then p(downward movement) = 1-p. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 41 Results from the above method will differ depending on whether the investor is an optimist, a realist and a pessimist. Optimist investor will increase value on the probability of upward movement. A realist will place equal weight on either movement. A pessimistic investor believes in downturn and hence probability for downturn is higher. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 42 Expected value of stock (at t=1) 0.9×375+0.1×240= TZS 361.5 lower probability for downward movement Higher probability for optimists Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 43 Expected value of the call (at t = 1) 361.5 -300 =TZS 61.5 Exercise price Expected value of the stock Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 44 value of the call today = 61.5/1.08=TZS 56.94 NOTE: Any arbitrary selection of the discount rate would result to arbitrary pricing of the call option. For the investor above we have assumed the probabilities are fairly certain and appropriate rate of discount at risk free rate of 8% Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 45 There are only two possible values, one up (upside move) and another down (downside move) from the current price. The underlying asset does not pay any dividends. All returns arrive through capital gains. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 46 The rate of interest(r) is constant through out the life of the option. Investor are risk neutral i.e. investors are indifferent toward risk. Market are frictionless that mean there are no taxes and no transaction cost. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 47 Binomial option pricing model is useful for valuing America option in which the option owner has right to exercise the option ant time up till expiration. Binomial option modes is useful for pricing Bermudan option which can be exercised at various point during the life of the option. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 48 One major limitation of the binomial option pricing model is it is slow speed and complex. Complexity of the computation is increased twofold in multi-period binomial option pricing model. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 49 The model was developed by Myron Scholes and Fischer Black in 1973 by using complex mathematics and differential calculus. It is analytical model for valuing options on non-dividends paying stock. The theory is now called Black -Scholes Model (BSM). Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 50 While pricing options, the intrinsic value is always apparent, but estimating the time value of the option poses problem. The time value of the money reflects the possibility of it becoming ITM before maturity date, as well as the extent to which it can be ITM The Black-Scholes model is the single important development in the theories for option pricing and it forms the backbone of modern option pricing. Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 51 Black – Scholes Model of option price for European Call on non- dividend paying stock is given by C = S0N(d1) – Xe-rt N(d2) c- is a call premium s0- spot price of underlying asset x- exercise price r- annual risk free interest rate expressed as decimal t- time remaining for expiration in years N(d1) and N(d2) are cumulative normal distribution functions at d1 and d2 respectively Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 52 The values of d1 and d2 are given by Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 53 Example: Use the Black Scholes model to price the CRDB stock price of TZS 125.94, an exercise price of TZS 125 and time to expiration of 0.0959 and risk free rate of 4.56 and volatility of 0.83. In calculating the value of this call by using the BSM we go through five steps; Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 54 So = 125.94, X = 125, rc = 0.0446, σ = 0.83, T= 0.0959 Step one: compute d1 Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 55 Step two: Compute d2 d2 = 0.1743 -0.83√0.0959 = - 0.0827 Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 56 Step 3: Look up N(d1) N(0.17) = 0.5675 Step 4: Look up N(d2) N(-0.08) = 1- N(0.08) = 1 – 0.5319 = 0.4681 Step 5: Plug into formula for C Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 57 Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 58 There are no transaction cost and no taxes The risk from interest rate is constant The market operate continuously The share prices are continuous; there are no jump in share prices. The share pay no dividends The option is of European type ,that is option that can be exercised only at maturity Share can be sold short without penalty and short seller receive the full proceeds from the transaction Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 59 The valuation of European put can be found by inserting the Black- Scholes call price into the put call parity model below; P=-PsN-d1 + [Px / ert ]N-d2 Example: Assume the stock price is TZS 40, the put exercise price is TZS 40, expiration date is 4-m, the continuous risk-free interest rate is 12% and the standard deviation of continuous compound stock return is 30% per year . Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 60 Solution: D1 = [ln(40/40) + 0.12 (1/3 + 0.09/2)]/ 0.3√1/3 D1 = 0.26 Nd1= 0.3974 D2=0.26 – 0.3√1/3 =0.09 Nd2 =0.4641 Therefore Pp is TZS 1.94 Sunday, January 23, 2022 Options Basics and Option pricing 61