AMBO UNIVERSITY INSTITUTION OF TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMET OF CIVIL ENGIEERIG ASSESSMENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF BUILDINGCONSTRUCTION PROJECT DELAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED FACTORS AMONG CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN AMBO TOWN, OROMIA, ETHIOPIA A PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO AMBO UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING. By:Haregewoin Olansa (BSc in Civil Eng.) Advisor:Emer T. Quezon (Prof.) May 2019 Ambo, Ethiopia DECLARATION I, theundersigned, declare that this thesis proposal entitled; “ASSESSMENT OF CONSTRUCTIONPROJECTSDELAY AND ASSOCAITED FACTORS IN AMBO TOWN, ETHIOPIA” is my original work, and hasbeen not presented by other person for an award of degree in this or any other university, and all sources of material used for this thesis proposal have to be duly acknowledged Candidate: Haregewoin Olansa ________________________ __________________ Signature Date As mastersResearch advisor, I hereby certified that I have read and evaluated this MSc Thesis proposal prepared under my guidance by Haregewoin Olansa entitled :ASSESSMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS DELAY AND ITS ASSOCAITED FACTORS IN AMBO TOWN, ETHIOPIA Dr. Girmay Kasay Main advisor [Type text] ____________________ Signature _________________ Date Page 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express our sincere gratitude to Ambo University to give us this significant chance to develop the proposal. My special thanks also gotomy advisor Prof. Emer T. Quezon, Ambo University for his unreserved constructive guidance through proposal development. At last but not least I want to thank all my families and friends who are assistingme to develop this proposal [Type text] Page 3 EXCUTIVE SUMMARY Background:Construction delay is considered as one of the most frequent and major problem in the construction industry. Delay has an opposing impact on project achievement in terms of time, cost and quality and safety. The effects of construction delays are not confined to the construction industry only, but influence the overall economy of a country like UAE, where construction plays a major role in its development and contributes alot to the GDP. Thus, this study aimed to assess the magnitude of this problem and identify the most significant causes of delay in order to avoid or minimise their impact on construction projects Objective:The objective of this study is to assess the magnitude of construction project delay and its associated factors among construction projects in Ambo town, Ethiopia 2019 Methods and materials: Institution based cross sectional study design will be used on a total sample of 288. Study area was selected through convenient method. Having delay projects and related factors outcomes as outcomes variables I will develop data collection tools from different literaturesand willadapt to local context. Study subject will be selected using systematic random sampling method, and adopted data collection tools is used. The data will be analyzed using SPSS (statistical package for social science) to analze frequency and factors assoctiated to our study (95% CI COR and AOR)through bivariate and multivariate analysis. Variables will be considered as statistically saignificant at a p-value of 0.05 in 95% confidence interval. Then study findings will be presented in text, tables, charts and figures. Result:This study is expected to assess the magnitude of construction delay and factors determining the delay of construction projects at Ambo town. Work plan: The study will be conducted from Fubruary 2019 to December 2019 G.C Budget breakdown: About 1172 Ethiopian birr will be needed to carry out this study Key words: Project Delay, Overrun Cost, Ambo Town [Type text] Page 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents [Type text] Page Page 5 Acrnomys [Type text] Page 6 CHAPTER ONE 1. Introduction 1.1.Background In the construction industry, the aim of project control is to ensure that projects finish on time, within budget and achieve other project objectives. It is a complex task undertaken by project managers in practice, which involves constantly measuring progress, evaluating plans and taking corrective actions when required (Kerzner, 2003 Kerzner, H. 2003. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons. [Google Scholar]). During the last few decades, numerous project control methods, such as Gantt Bar Chart, Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) have been developed (Lester, 2000 Lester, A. 2000. Project Planning and Control, Oxford: Butterworth‐Heinemann. [Google Scholar]; Nicholas, 2001 Nicholas, J. 2001. Project Management for Business and Technology, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. [Google Scholar]). A variety of software packages have become available to support the application of these project control methods, for example Microsoft Project, Asta Power Project, Primavera, etc. Despite the wide use of these methods and software packages in practice, many construction projects still suffer time and cost overruns. In construction, delay could be defined as the time overrun either beyond completion date specified in a contract, or beyond the date that the parties agreed upon for delivery of a project. It is a project slipping over its planned schedule and is considered as common problem in construction projects. To the owner, delay means loss of revenue through lack of production facilities and rent-able space or a dependence on present facilities. In some cases, to the contractor, delay means higher overhead costs because of longer work period, higher material costs through inflation, and due to labor cost increases. Completing projects on time is an indicator of efficiency, but the construction process is subject to many variables and unpredictable factors, which result from many sources. These sources include the performance of parties, resources availability, environmental conditions, involvement of other parties, and contractual relations. However, it is rarely happen that a project is completed within the specified time. [Type text] Page 7 1.2. Statement of problem A construction project is commonly acknowledged as successful, when it is completed on schedule and within the agreed budget, with the highest quality and in the safest manner, in accordance with the specifications and to stakeholders’ satisfaction.Delays occur in every construction project and the significant of these delays varies considerably from project to project. Construction delays are disruptive and expensive. The six significant factors found to be contributing to delays in building and civil engineering works are unforeseen ground conditions, poor site supervisions, low speed of decision making involving all project teams, client initiated variations, necessary variations of work, and inadequate contractor. (Takim, R., & Akintoye, A. (2012), Mansfield, N. R., Ugwu, O. O. and Doran, T. (2004)) Construction delay defined as “time over run either beyond completion date specified in a contract or beyond the date that parties agree upon for delivery of a project.” It is slipping over its planned schedule and is considered as common problem in construction projects. Delay in construction project completion is a global phenomenon that occurs in the construction industry and considered as one of the most common problems causing a multitude of negative effects on the project and its participating parties especially where the government projects are concerned and in the construction industry of Ethiopia is no exception(Tilahun Sh. 2016) In Ethiopia, the construction industry is the highest recipient of government budget in terms of government development program. Consequently, public construction projects consume an average annual rate of nearly 60% of the government’s capital budget. Construction delays are occurring in every phase of a construction project and are common problems in constructionprojects in Ethiopia. This study shows that in Ethiopia only 8.25% projects have been finished to the original targeted completion date. The remaining 91.75% delayed 352% of its contractual time(Worku H et al 2016) 1.3.Objectives 1.3.1. General Objectives To assess the magnitude of building construction project delay and its associated factors among construction projects in Ambo Town, Oromia, Ethiopia,2019 [Type text] Page 8 1.3.2. Specific Objectives To assess the magnitude of construction delay of projects at Ambo town, 2019 To identify factors associated with construction projects delay in Ambo town, 2019 1.4. Scope of the study This research focus on the assessment delay of construction projects and associated factors in Ambo town.Byusing a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. It was conducted in two stages. The first stage was conducted using a quantitative method through a questionnaire survey in a bid to generate information from a large sample population. The second stage of the study was conducted using the qualitative method using semi-structured interviews. The reasons for using the interview in addition to the questionnaire survey were: to triangulate data obtained from the questionnaire survey; to enhance, expand and create depth to the results of the questionnaire survey by investigating and elaborating on some of the issues highlighted; and to explore the experiences of the sample population in relation to the topical issues revealed after analysis of the data obtained from the questionnaire survey. 1.5. Limitation of research The study will be limited in some case conflict, unexpected rain in Ambo town. 1.6. Significant of the research The significant of this study is to understand the delays and factors of building social and economic. Affording to save overrun cost, saving time, easy to accessibility on social life. This research will be to provide how to minimize the delay of projects, overrun cost. Generally, the result of this study will be provide to achieved the project by own budget and time without overrun cost or additional time and cost. 1.7 Research Questions While, this research will be mainly focused on responding to the following questions: What is the magnitude of construction project delay in Ambo town? What are the major causes of construction project delay? [Type text] Page 9 How much construction projects are affected by overrun cost from delay? What are the impacts of delayed projects? What measurements the have used to prevent delay? What are the most critical delay factors in construction? What are the causes of delay before starting the projects and after starting? [Type text] Page 10 CHAPTER TWO LITRATURE REVIEW According to this research in Sudia Arabia American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture journal indicates in Sudia Arabia found that the percentage of delayed projects in Saudi Arabia varied from 35% to 84%. This project delay was not recorded in the traditional projects, it is also recorded in green buildings projects. Percentage of 32.29% of the green construction projects completed behind schedule ( In total, 78 causes of delay were identified through research. The identified causes are combined into seven groups. The field survey included 58 contractors, 55 consultants, and 62 clients. Data collected were analyzed by RII and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The authors identified main causes of delay and ten most important causes, according to Table AII, from the perspective of three major groups of participants (clients, consultants and contractors) (emeland journal) Chan and Kumaraswamyhas established that poor performance of projects in terms of time overruns over the last three decades is a common place in the construction industry. For example, as per statical data 50-80% delays in 1627 World Bank sponsored projects (19741988), together with an average of 23.2% time overruns on UK Government constitutional projects from 1993 to 1994, further average time overruns on sample public building projects studied during 1994 in Hong Kong, were assumed to be 9 %..Alkass et al, delays are the most common problem and are costly also in construction projects. Its expansive for both owners and contractors. The owner loses the potential revenues from the use of the project and by increasing the overhead costs along with lost opportunities for new projects because of diminished financial capabilities. (A.W. Shaikh, M. R. Muree, and A. S. Soomro)(3) Delays in construction projects,cost overruns, and low quality have long been common problems in the construction and engineering sector. In particular, time and cost increases in large public construction projects seem to be a global phenomenon, with no reduction in the last 70 years and an average cost overrun of 28% (Flyvbjerg et al. 2002, 2003). Optimistic expectations of time [Type text] Page 11 and budget have, as a consequence, been found to decrease quality and productivity during construction and in the final product (Park et al. 2010). Studies the delays in building projects in Thailand evaluate the progress of reports of 164 building and 28 highway projects constructed during the period of 1996-1999 in Jordan. The results indicate that delay is extensive: the average ratio of actual completion time to the planed contract duration is 160.5% for road projects and 120.3% for building projects. (4) The contribution of the Indian construction sector to the growth of the Indian economy and rapid socioeconomic development of As evident from numerous publications on the Indian construction sector, projects are reportedly failing across all the key performance measures including cost, time and quality performances. Based on an investigation report by Ernst & Young in February 2011, out of a total of 559 ongoing infrastructure projects in India, 293 were delayed (Ernst & Young, 2011). Out of the delayed projects, 69 were a month to a year behind schedule, while 67 projects were delayed by 13–24 months, 107 by 25–60 months and 37 by over 60 months. With inflationary pressures in the current Indian economy, such time delays in 293 projects potentially added an incremental cost of INR682.7 billion (approx. US $105 billion) amounting to a 22.3% effective cost escalation (Ernst & Young, 2011). In a study comparing the performance of international development projects in India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand, it was reported that construction projects in India showed the worst schedule performance (Ahsan and Gunawan, 2010). The study found that in India average schedule overrun of 55% over planned schedule is the highest compared to the other nations included in the stud the entire country over the past few decades is highly phenomenal (Gupta et al., 2009). (5) Kuwait is one of the Arabic gulf areas. Kuwaiti GPD is about $174.810 billion in 2014. The construction contribution to GPD is about 7%. There are 177,696 persons working directly with this industry in Kuwait, [1]. Kuwaiti state is one of the gulf area, which characterized by highly economical changes and multi-cultural labor workforce. The majority of technical personnel are coming from many countries all-over the world. Many of international consulting and contracting firms are working in many of major Kuwaiti construction projects. [Type text] Page 12 World Bank report found that, during the implementation phase of infrastructure projects, cost overruns occurred in 20% of cases, while time overruns were estimated at more than 110%. For example, Jaber 254 American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture Hospital, which is one of the largest central hospitals in Kuwait was delayed more than 90% from its original duration, and a delay fine of 18 million KD were applied (KD = 3.35 $) and Governmental center for applying construction tests project is delayed more than 100% from its original duration. Minister of planning stated that 70% of governmental projects.(6) This study has also established an allocation of responsibility for each group of factors that result in delays in construction projects. Overall responsibility allocation shows that contractor has 40% responsibility, consultant has 21%, and owner has 9% whereas stakeholders share 30% responsibility because of contingencies. This study helps foreign and indigenous stakeholders monitor and control delay risk by understanding pivotal causes in context of Lahor(7) The survey illustrated that construction projects suffered more delays in Libya than the UK. The survey results indicated that critical delay factors are quite different in both countries. The case study found that a building project might be delayed by 41 to 46 days in Libya, or 34 to 38 days in the UK, when considering the most critical delay factors.(8) A construction project is commonly admitted as successful when it completes on time, with budget, according the specifications, and stakeholder satisfaction. However, most of the projects did not finish as the expected timetable. Instead, they completed before or after the schedule due to uncertainties of events and its uniqueness [1]. Construction projects experienced 70%of time overruns and 76% of contractors and 56% of consultants have indicated that they have been facing average time overrun of 10 to 30% from the original duration that causes 50% cost overrun [2]. Elsewhere, 50% of the construction projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) encountered construction delay [3]. Therefore, delay considered as one of the most common problems causing a multitude negative effect on projects, and its participating parties [5]. Ethiopia one of the fastest growing, developing country; uses construction industry as the main input for growth, employment, and infrastructure expansion. Yet, not contributed to the development of the country as desired due to it faces various problems, [Type text] Page 13 limitations, and drawbacks. Among those, impact of delay in construction project is a common, and a predominant. Various researchers had been studying the causes and effects of delays in construction projects all over the world and in domestic in numerous manners for decades. The problem studied in different countries with different scholars; due to the reason that, it differs from one country to another; in time variation or even one project to another. (9) [Type text] Page 14 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODS, PROCEDURES AND MATERIALS 3.1 Study Area This study will be conducted in Ambo town. Ambo is the oldest town found in Oromia and it is the capital city of West Shewa zone. The town is located at a distance of 114km to west of Addis Ababa on Nekemte-Asosoa highway. The climatic condition of the town is “woinadega” with annual environmental temperature ranges of 14- 260c. The total population of Ambo town is about a million. Currently in this town different construction activities are carried out both building and road construction.… Fig 1. Figure of Ambo town [Type text] Page 15 3.2 Study Period The study will be conducted for an estimated 5 months from June 1st 2019- October 30 2019 3.3 Study Design Cross sectional study design will be implemented to obtain adequate information from respondents using self-administered and interview with concomitant observation of sites. Diagram showing General research procedures Stage 1 1 2 Review of literature Data collection and extraction 1. Journals, books, manuals and other related documents will be reviewed 2. Data collection will be conducted by selfadministering, interview, observation of site 3. Data extraction will be through observation of site and filled documents/questionnaires, calculation/optional 1. Using SPSS COR and AOR will be calculated through linear regression model Stage 2 3. Statistical analysis of data Stage 3 4. Validation of result 5. Interpretation of result 1 2 The developed model will be checked if its valid Result obtained will be interpreted and will discussed Fig 2: general research procedure 3.4 Software In this study I will use Microsoft office I’e Excel to process figures and tables specifically for the first objective. To identify determinant factors, the second specific objective, for construction project delay SPSS will be processed to identify degree of association of those factors. 3.5 Sample size determination [Type text] Page 16 Using Montgomery and Runger 2014 formula where N is required sample size, while p is a proportion of previous study, d is margin error with 95% of confidence interval the estimated sample size will be; N=Z2p(1-p) = 1.962x0.5x(1-0.5) d2 0.052 = 385 using 50% proportion Since study area has minimal construction projects using correction formula I minimize study participants to 288. 3.6 Sampling Method Simple random sampling will be conducted to elicit information for my questionnaire 3.7 Methods of data collection The study will be conducted using a semi- structured questionnaire interview andobservation of their plan with their current status.The questionnaires will be a self administeredtype and will be interviwed at site. 3.8 Data analysis The raw data will be entered, cleaned and analyzed using statistical software such as SPSS Descriptive statistics, crude and adjusted odds ratio will be used to measure association between variables. 3.9 Description of variables 3.9.1 Dependent Variables - Delay of construction project Variables related to contractor 3.9.2 Independent variables - Variables related owner/consultant - - Delay to deliver the site Late in revising and approving designdocuments Poor communication and coordination Slowness in decision making process Suspension of work, Inflexibility of consultant Conflicts between consultant anddesign engineer Inadequate experience of consultant Financial problems, Contract modifications (replace andadd new works to the project; change inspecifications), Lack of working knowledge Supervision too late and slowness inmaking decisions, Slow to give instructions Lack of consultant’s experience, Incomplete documents, Lack of consultant’s site staffexperience (managerial and supervisorypersonnel), Absence of consultant’s site staff - - - [Type text] Difficulties in financing projectby contractor, Conflicts in sub-contractors, poor schedule in execution of project, Rework due to errors duringconstruction Conflicts b/w contractor andother parties (consultant andowner) Poor site management andsupervision by contractor, Poor communication , Improper construction methods, implemented by contractor, Delays in sub-contractors work, Frequent change of subcontractorsbecause of their inefficient work, Poor qualification of thecontractors technical staff Inadequate Planning &Scheduling Staffing Problems, Lack of coordination On-site, Scheduling Mismanagement, Inadequate Review Lack of High-Technology, Poor Managerial Skills,Inspections - Material/Fabrication Delays, Material Procurement Page 17 Other environmental/natural factors such as conflict etc 3.10 Data quality assurance To maximize reliability and validity of the variables in the study, special attention will be given to the construction of the questionnaire that is the wording of the questions and flow of alternatives and related issues will be carefully examined during the designing of the questionnaire. Appropriate design and sampling procedures will also considered carefully to maintain the quality of the study. Two data collectors will be also involved after one day training on how to collect and maintain completeness and validity of the data. If the respondents will absent the repeated visit will be made. 3.10 Ethical consideration Letter of permission will be obtained fromEthical Review committee of Ambo University Institute of Technology to each organization who are on construction. Similarly; the respondents will informed about purpose of the study, all information gained during data collection will be kept confidential; to keep privacy of the respondents there is no any personal identification which is on the questionnaire and interviewees rather than coded. Informed consent will be gained from each respondent and they will informed that the right to give up the interview at any time they wishes. 3.10 Expected outcome Up on coplition of this study the following outcomes will be expected The study will identify the degree of construction projects delay in Ambo town The most common problems associated with construction projects delay in Ambo town will be identified Finally, the study findings will be dissiminated to concerned bodies; I’e ORC, WSRCA, [Type text] Page 18 WORK PLAN 1 Developing proposal 2 Proposal defense 3 Training for data collectors 4 Data collection 5 Data entry 6 Data analysis 7 Writing up 8 Final defense and submission [Type text] Page 19 Dec. Nov Oct. August July. June. May. Apr. Mar. Feb. S/No. Activities Septem. Table 4.1 work plan BUDGET BREAK DOWN Human Power Persons involved Trainer Data collectors Data collectors Total No 1 2 2 Perdaim 179 150 20 birr/sample No of days 1 (training) 1 (training) 288x20 Total cost 179 300 5760 6239 For stationarie S/N Item Unit Amount 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 Pen Pencil Stepler Sharper Flash driver Notebook Photo copy Total Number Number Number Number Number Number Number 5 5 1 2 1 3 288 x4 Category Human power Stationarie Total cost 6239 1487 Price per unit 10 5 40 5 150 20 1birr Total 50.00 25.00 40.00 10.00 150.0 60.00 1152.00 1487.00 Summary s/no 1 2 7726.00 Total [Type text] Page 20 Reference 1. ArshiShakeelFaridi&SamehMonir El‐Sayegh (2006) Significant factors causing delay in the UAE construction industry, Construction Management and Economics, 24:11,1167-1176, DOI: 10.1080/01446190600827033 2. Ehab SOLIMAN, “Recommendations to Mitigate Delay Causes in Kuwait Construction Projects.” American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 5, no. 6 (2017): 253262. doi: 10.12691/ajcea-5-6-5. 3. A.W. Shaikh, M. R. Muree, and A. S. Soomro 4. Abdela M. Odhea*, Hussien T. Battahinebcauses of construction delay: traditional contracts Jordan university of science and technology international journal of construction project management 20(2002)67-73 5. HemantaDoloi, Anil Sawhney& K.C. Iyer (2012) Structural equation model for investigating factors affecting delay in Indian construction projects, Construction Management and Economic, 30:10, 869-884, DOI: 10.1080/01446193.2012.717705 6. Ehab SOLIMAN* American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2017, Vol. 5, No. 6, 253262Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajcea/5/6/5©Science and Education Publishing 7. [Type text] Page 21