ZNOTES.ORG UPDATED TO 2022 SYLLABUS CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) SUMMARIZED NOTES ON THE THEORY SYLLABUS CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) 1. Basic Economic Ideas and Resource Allocation 1.1. Efficient Resource Allocation Productive efficiency: when a firm is producing at the lowest possible cost. Pareto optimality: where it is impossible to make someone better off without making someone else worse off. The PPC shows that one good has to be given up to produce more of the other. All the points on the graph are pareto efficient including point Y. A point outside the curve indicates an increase in resources. Pareto inefficiency is caused when the resources are not used to the complete potential. Point X on the graph is pareto inefficient. productive efficiency in perfect competition: Allocative efficiency: where price is equal to marginal cost; firms are producing those goods and services most wanted by consumers. Dynamic efficiency is a form of productive efficiency that benefits a firm over time. Resources are reallocated in such a way that output increases relative to the increase in resources 1.2. Social Costs & Benefits Social cost/benefit: is total cost/benefit to whole society due to an economic activity. (Social cost = Private cost/benefit + External cost/benefit) Private cost/benefit: is internal cost/benefit of an economic activity. External cost/benefit: is 3rd party cost/benefit of an economic activity. 1.3. Market Failure Market failure occurs when there is an oversupply or undersupply of goods. Market failure occurs when: There are externalities present in the market WWW.ZNOTES.ORG CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) There is provision of merit and demerit goods There is provision of public and quasi-public goods Information failure exists There is adverse selection or moral hazard There is abuse of monopoly power in the market 1.4. Externalitites Externality: where the actions of producers or consumers give rise to side effects on third parties who are not involved in the action; sometimes referred to as spillover effects Negative/Positive externality: where the side effects have a negative/positive impact and impose costs/provide benefits to third parties. Negative production externalities: These are spillover effects that occur as a result of production activity. Negative consumption externalities: These are created by consumers as a consequence of their use of products that result in harm to others who are not involved in the consumption. Positive production externalities: These are benefits to third parties and are created by producers of goods and services. Positive consumption externalities: Here, the benefits are the spillover effects of consumption of a good or service on others 1.5. Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost-benefit analysis (CBA): a method for assessing the desirability of a project taking into account the costs and benefits involved Shadow price: one that is applied where there is no recognised market price available Step Advantages Disadvantages Identification All cost/benefit considered Identification is tough Monetary evaluation Most will have market prices Shadow prices Forecast Future consequences Uncertainty in estimation Interpretation All info. useful Bureaucracy Decision making Investment projects Public expenditure WWW.ZNOTES.ORG CBA adds up the total costs of a program or activity and compares it against its total benefits. The technique assumes that a monetary value can be placed on all the costs and benefits of a program, including tangible and intangible returns to other people and organizations in addition to those immediately impacted. As such, a major advantage of cost-benefit analysis lies in forcing people to explicitly and systematically consider the various factors which should influence strategic choice. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Budget line - the combinations of 2 products obtainable with income and price Marginal rate of substitution: is the quantity of one product an individual is prepared to give up in order to obtain an additional unit of another leaving the individual at same utility. It is diminishing. Indifference curve: this shows the different combinations of two goods that give a consumer equal satisfaction. Refer to Equi-marginal principle as well Indifference curve Higher curves present at higher consumption. All curves are downward sloping Indifference curves cannot cross Indifference curves are convex to the origin \n 2. The Price System & The Micro economy 2.1. Utility Utility: is the satisfaction gained from consumption of a product. Total utility: is the satisfaction gained from the consumption of all units of a product over a particular period of time. Marginal utility: is the satisfaction gained from one more unit of a product consumed over a particular period of time. Note: Consumers purchase products when P ≤ MU Law of diminishing marginal utility: states that as the quantity consumed of a product by an individual increases, marginal utility decreases. Diminishing marginal utility assumes that consumers are always rational. However, in some cases like buy 1 get 1 free or when payment can be deferred using credit card, the consumers may not be rational. Equi-marginal principle: Consumers maximize their utility where their marginal valuation for each product consumed is the same. MU ∗ A MU ∗ B MU ∗ C = = =⋯ P∗A P∗B P∗C 2.2. Indifference Curves & Budget Lines WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Substitution/Income effect: is the change in quantity demanded of a product due to change in relative price/real income. The budget line will shift when there is: A change in the prices of one or both products with nominal income (budget) remaining the same. A change in the level of nominal income with the relative prices of the two products remaining the same. The substitution effect is shown on the indifference curve (IC) I1. The point moves on the curve from E1 To E2 or vice versa. This causes the budget line to change from B1 to the dotted budget line. The income effect causes point to move from E2 to E3 causing a shift in IC from I1 to I2. The table below shows hoe price change affects different types of goods. Price effect = Substitution effect + Income effect. Giffen/Veblen good: are goods whose price and demand are directly related as they are necessary/luxurious. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) PRICE EFFECTS Price change Good type Price effect (on demand) Demand change Fall Normal Both effects ↑ Rise Fall Inferior Sub. effect ↑ > In. effect ↓ Rise Fall G/V Sub. effect ↑ > In. effect ↓ Fall Rise Normal Both effects ↓ Fall Rise Inferior Sub. effect ↓ > In. effect ↑ Fall Rise G/V Sub. effect ↓ > In. effect ↑ Rise Average fixed cost= total fixed cost / output Average variable cost= total variable cost / output Average total cost= total cost / output Marginal cost= change in cost/change in quantity 2.3. Costs Production function- this shows the maximum possible output from the given set of factor inputs. Marginal product - the in the change output arising from the use of one or more units of a FOP The minimum efficient scale (MES) is the balance point at which a company can produce goods at a competitive price.The MES is the point on a company's long-run average cost curve where economies of scale have been exhausted, and constant returns have begun. Diminishing returns - where the output from an additional unit of input leads to a fall in the marginal product. Fixed costs - those costs that are independent of output in the short run so that is a straight line and doesn’t change with output. Variable costs - those that vary directly with output; all costs are variable in the long run so the graph is curved and changes with output Total cost= total fixed cost + total variable cost. It starts at the fixed cost line and follow the variable cost line since it the combination of both WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Isoquant: is a curve that shows a particular level of output over a combination of inputs. It is similar to the indifference curve. Output refers to the total physical product. The points x, y and z on the graph below shows the same output. Costs in the short run CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Supernormal profit- is any profit in excess of normal profit. It only exists in the short term and only for monopolies TR>TC Revenue Total revenue (TR) = price x quantity Average revenue (AR)= total revenue / output Revenue: Total revenue (TR) = price x quantity Average revenue (AR)= total revenue / output Costs in the long run When TR is maximum, MR is 0 2.5. Economies and diseconomies of scale LRAC envelope curve Increasing returns to scale- where output increases at a proportionately faster rate than the increase in factor outputs. Decreasing returns to scale- Where factor input increase at a proportionally faster rate than the increase in output Economies of scale - the benefits gained from falling longrun average costs as the scale of output increases External economies of scale: cost saving accruals to all firms in an industry as the scale increases Diseconomies of Scale - where long-run average cost increase as the scale of output increases Economies of scale Internal External Technical Transport Financial Concentration Managerial Knowledge Marketing Ancillary industries Purchasing Specialised labour Risk-bearing Reputation Increased dimensions In the LRAC envelope curve when the curve is sloping down there are increasing economies of scale. The lowest point on the curve has constant economies and as the curve starts rising there are decreasing economies of scale present. Least cost combination: (MPP factor A) / (P factor A) = (MPP factor B) / (P factor B) 2.4. Profit There are 3 types of profit: Normal profit- a cost of production that is just sufficient for the firm to keep running in the same industry Subnormal profit- any profit less than the normal profit. If the problem persists then the firm will leave the industry and go into one that will make a profit. This is where p<ac WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Economies of scope Diseconomies of scale Internal External Lack of communication Competition for inputs Demotivation Congestion Alienation Pollution Slack management (Xinefficiency) Non-flexibility Labour disputes & turnover 2.6. Types of market structure and their objectives CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Market Structure - the way in which market is organised in terms of the number of firms and barriers to the entry of new firms MNC- A multinational corporation (MNC) is one that has business operations in two or more countries. Industry- group of productive enterprises or organisations that produce or supply goods, services, or sources of income. Barriers to entry- any restriction that prevents new firms from entering an industry. Perfect competition an ideal market structure that has many buyers and sellers, identical or homogeneous products and no barriers to entry Monopoly - a pure monopoly is Just 1 firm in an industry with very high barriers of entry. Monopolistic competition a market structure where there are many firms, differentiated product and few barriers to entry Oligopoly- a market structure with few firms and high barriers to entry. Imperfect competition - any market structure except for perfect competition. Types of objectives: Different objectives of firm Profit maximisation- gain a lot of profits Sales revenue maximisation- maximise turnover Sales maximisation - maximize volume of sales Satisficing - reasonable level of profit Loss minimizing Ethical objectives The graph above is called the perfect competition model. In the industry in the short run a new firm enters 2.8. Monopolistic competition Characteristics: large no of buyers and sellers Few barriers to entry and exit Consumers have a wide choice of differentiated products Firms have some influence on the market price 2.9. Barriers to entry and pricing strategy Barriers to entry: 2.7. Perfect Competition Perfect competition occurs when all companies sell identical products, market share does not influence price, companies are able to enter or exit without barrier, buyers have perfect or full information, and companies cannot determine prices. Characteristics: large no. of buyers and sellers have perfect knowledge No individual firm has an influence on the market price products are homogenous on identical Freedom of entry or exit All consumers have complete info about the product, prices, means of production WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Impossible to enter because industry is state ownednatural monopoly High fixed or setup costs If a firm is shutting down some costs cannot be recovered- barriers to exit Ads and brand name with a high degree of customer loyalty is difficult to overcome Economies of scale- lower for large firms Production process patented by legal company Some firms may already have monopoly access to raw materials Pace of innovation is quick Firms can hide existence of abnormal profit by limit pricing Market conditions CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Pricing strategy: Limit pricing- where firms will deliberately lower the prices and abandon a policy maximization to stop new firms from entering a market. Predatory pricing: is adopted by monopoly/oligopoly to force competitions out of market thereby exploit monopoly power by setting prices well below average cost. Price leadership- a situation in a market whereby a particular firm has the power to change prices, the result of which is that competitors follow this lead. Diagram A shows the existence of consumer surplus. This shows that the consumers are willing to pay more than what is charged by the firm. However, in diagram B, there is no existence of consumer surplus, this means that the firm leaves no room for the consumers to be able to pay extra rather they charge the highest price the consumers are willing to pay. The two diagrams show how the same firm charges different prices in 2 different industries to increase profit. The firm may do this because of different elasticities in 2 markets or the income of the majority of people in different markets. 2.10. Oligopoly Characteristics: Market is dominated by a few firms Decisions are independent High barriers to entry Products may be differentiated Uncertainty and risks associated with price competition may lead to price rigidity Cartel- a formal agreement between oligopoly firms to limit competition by limiting output or fixing prices. They decide prices in the industry & long term survival of a cartel depends upon the high barriers to entry Threats to a cartel possibility of a price war - 1 firm breaks rank to gain higher market share if some members have higher costs - less profits no dominant firm that has the power to control others legal obstacles do not act in the best interest of consumers. Non-price competition physical characteristics location service level advertising Price discrimination- Price discrimination is when identical or largely similar goods or services are sold at different prices by the same provider in different markets. WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Collusion- a non-competitive, secret and sometimes illegal agreement between rivals which attempts to discreet the market’s equilibrium. Kinked demand curve- a means of analysing the behaviour of firm in oligopoly where there is no collusion. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Positives of monopoly The logic of the kinked demand curve is based on A few firms dominate the industry Firms wish to maximise profits Impact of price rise If a firm increases the price, then it becomes more expensive than rivals and therefore, consumers will switch to its rivals. Therefore for a price rise, there is likely to be a significant fall in demand. Demand is, therefore, price elastic. In this case, of increasing price firms will lose revenue because the percentage fall in demand is greater than the percentage rise in price. Impact of price cut If a firm cut its price, it is likely to lead to a different effect. In the short term, if a firm cuts price it would cause a big increase in demand and therefore would lead to a rise in revenue. The firm would gain market share. However, other firms will not want to see this fall in market share and so they will respond by also cutting price to follow the first firm. The net effect is that if all firms cut price – the individual firm will only see a small increase in demand. Because there is a ‘price war’ demand for a firm is price inelastic – there is a smaller percentage rise in demand. If demand is inelastic and price falls, then revenue will fall. 2.11. Monopoly Characteristics of a monopoly A single seller No close substitutes High barriers to entry Monopolist is the price maker WWW.ZNOTES.ORG a monopolist cannot at always make abnormal profit competitive market has uncertainty of profits monopolist can invest this and provide better quality and job security investment may take the forms of process innovation. profit would be used to finance product innovation. If benefits of economies of scale would be passed on to consumers then they would have gained from it X inefficiency - where the typical costs In a competitive market above those experienced in a more competitive market. This happens when the firm lacks the incentives to lower the costs. Natural monopoly- A natural monopoly is a type of monopoly that exists typically due to the high start-up costs or powerful economies of scale of conducting a business in a specific industry which can result in significant barriers to entry for potential competitors. This can also be made by government for example utilities because private firms may exploit the customers. Note: Only the monopoly can make abnormal profit in the short run. A monopoly is the only firm in the market which means there is one buyer and several sellers who sell to the monopoly firm. Due to this the monopoly can ask the firms to reduce the prices therefore increasing profits since the average cost has reduced. The monopoly firm can also charge quite high prices to the consumers since the consumers have no choice but to buy from the monopoly firm. This increases revenue and therefore profits as well. 2.12. Comparing monopoly with perfect competition price in monopoly is higher than it is in perfect competition monopoly output is lower the monopolist is making short term abnormal profits the firm in perfect competition is productively efficient, producing the optimum output. It is also allocatively efficient, producing where price = MC The monopoly firm captures consumer surplus and turn it into abnormal profit CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) The monopoly firm is productively inefficient, producing less than the optimum output in the search for extra profit. The price change is well above marginal cost and so is not allocatively efficient. If a perfectly competitive industry was turned into a monopoly, there would be a welfare loss of area x in addition to greater allocative inefficiency. Perfect competition comparison with a profit maximizing monopoly Relationship between AR, MR and TR 2.13. Contestable market Any market structure where there is a threat that potential entrants are free and able to enter this market Features of contestable market free entry Number and size of firms are irrelevant only normal profit can be earned in the long run threat of potential entrants into the market is overriding all firms are subject to the same regulations and gov. control. mechanisms must be in place to prevent the use of unfair pricing designed by established firms to stop new firms from entering. cross subsidisation is eliminated 2.14. Relationship between different costs and revenues Profit maximising WWW.ZNOTES.ORG AC and MC relationship AC can fall, when MC is rising when MC is less than AC. AC cannot rise, when MC is falling. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Conglomerate integration- producing in an unrelated industry Horizontal integration: where a firm merges or acquires another in the same line of business. 2.15. Why do small firms exists? Why so many small firms exist in a world where the power lies with the monopolies economic activities where size of market is small to support large firms business may involve specialist skills possessed by few people where the product is a service- offer customers personal attention small firms may be the big firms of tomorrow There are particular obstacles to the growth of small firms. the entrepreneur may not always have expansion as the objective of firm recession and rising unemployment can trigger an increase in start-ups small businesses may receive financial help. small businesses are more efficient and competitive 2.16. Why and how firms grow motives behind firms growth have reduction in ATC over time through benefits of EOS achieve higher profits, → boost sales → profits diversity product range economies of scale capture resources of another business. Economies of scope - reduction in ATC made possible by a firm increasing the different goods it produces Internal growth - firm decides to retain profits and invest it in the business for it to grow External growth- firm expands by joining others through takeover or mergers Diversification- where the firm grows through the production or sale of a wide range of different products Vertical integration- where a firm grows by producing backward or forwards in its supply chain. Vertical forward integration is for producing forward in the supply chain Vertical backward integration is for producing backward in the supply chain WWW.ZNOTES.ORG 2.17. Game theory Prisoner’s dilemma- The prisoner's dilemma is a standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. The prisoner’s dilemma presents a situation where two parties, separated and unable to communicate, must each choose between co-operating with the other or not. The highest reward for each party occurs when both parties choose to co-operate. Principal agent problem- a principal hires an agent to own the business but there is a case of info. failure since the principal is unable to ensure that the appointed agent is taking the necessary decisions to run the firm in the best interests of shareholders. For ex. agent is following objective of satisficing whereas the principal believes he or she is implementing policy of profit maximization. 3. Government Microeconomic Intervention 3.1. Externalities Deadweight loss: the welfare loss when due to market failure desirable consumption and production does not take place. A deadweight loss is a cost to society created by market inefficiency, which occurs when supply and demand are out of equilibrium. Mainly used in economics, deadweight loss can be applied to any deficiency caused by an inefficient allocation of resources. Equality means each individual or group of people is given the same resources or opportunities. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Efficiency: The term efficiency refers to the peak level of performance that uses the least amount of inputs to achieve the highest amount of output. Efficiency requires reducing the number of unnecessary resources used to produce a given output, including personal time and energy. Equity recognises that each person has different circumstances and allocates the exact resources and opportunities needed to reach an equal outcome. The distribution is fair. Horizontal and vertical equity: Horizontal equity refers to the idea that people in the same circumstances should be treated in the same way. Vertical equity refers to the idea that people on higher incomes should take on a greater share of the responsibility for paying for public services. Nudge theory- proposes positive reinforcement and indirect suggestions as ways to influence the behavior and decision-making of groups or individuals. It is basically encouraging consumers to make rational decisions or ones in their self-interest. For example, giving them information about the negative effects of smoking to encourage them to quit. Privatization: where there is a change in ownership from the public to the private sector. Imposition of indirect tax: Externality occurs when the marginal social benefits (MSBs) differ from the marginal private benefits (MPBs); equally, it is when the MSCs are not equal to the MPCs Such differences occur in four situations: negative externalities in production negative externalities in consumption positive externalities in production positive externalities in consumption Intervention to correct externalities takes many forms including: use of indirect taxes various types of regulation property rights provision of information pollution permits subsidies WWW.ZNOTES.ORG 3.2. Inequality Lorenz curve: a graphical representation of inequality. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Gini coefficient: a numerical measure of inequality There are three main types of policies that are available to reduce inequality in the distribution of income and wealth. The more the Lorenz curve shifts towards the equality line the better Gini coefficient= (area A)/(area A+B) These are: 1. providing benefits Means-tested benefits: benefits that are paid only to those whose incomes fall below a certain level. Poverty trap: where an individual or a family are better off on means-tested benefits rather than working. Universal benefits: benefits that are available to all irrespective of income or wealth. 2. through the tax system Progressive tax: one where the rate rises more than proportionately to the rise in income. Regressive tax: one where the ratio of taxation to income falls as income increases. 3. through other policies. A further way of reducing inequalities in society is for the government to provide certain important services free of charge to the user. The two most significant examples of such free provision in many economies are health care and junior and secondary education Negative income tax: a unified tax and benefits system where people are taxed or receive benefits according to a single set of rules. Derived demand: where the demand for a good or service depends upon the use that can be made from it 3.3. Labour WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Shifts in the long run supply of labour CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Labour demand: Demand for labour is a concept that describes the amount of demand for labour that an economy or firm is willing to employ at a given point in time MRPL: The marginal revenue product of labour (MRPL) is the change in revenue that results from employing an additional unit of labour, holding all other inputs constant Two important features of the workings of labour markets. These are: increase the wages of their members improve working conditions maintain pay differentials between skilled and unskilled workers fight job losses provide a safe working environment secure additional working benefits prevent unfair dismissals 1. the wage paid to labour equals the value of the marginal product of labour 2. the willingness of labour to supply their services to the labour market is dependent upon the wage rate that is being offered equilibrium in labour market Increase in demand for labour causes rise in employment and rise in wages Increase in supply for labour causes rise in employment and fall in wages 1. Transfer earnings: This is the minimum payment necessary to keep labour in its present use. For example, the government will give the unemployed people benefits so that when there is the need for that labour, the labour is available. 2. Economic rent: Any payment to labour which is over and above transfer earnings. This is usually the salary given to the people. Monopsony: where there is a single buyer in a market. 3.5. Government failure Government failure: where government intervention to correct market failure causes further inefficiencies. There are three main reasons why government failure may occur. These are as a result of: 3.4. Trade union and minimum wage trade unions aim to: WWW.ZNOTES.ORG 1. imperfect information There is a lack of information about the true value of a negative externality. There is CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) a lack of information about the level of consumer demand for a product. 2. undesirable incentives The imposition of taxes can distort incentives. Politicians may be motivated by political power rather than economic imperatives. 3. policy conflict. However, it is possible that government intervention might sometimes increase existing inequality. this is simply understood by recognising that the imposition of any tax will have a distributional effect. Nudge theory: to use encouragement and suggestions to change people’s behaviour for better. 3.6. Monopsony and labour market failure Monopsony It is the type of market where there is only one buyer and multiple sellers. Monopsony power of employers: dingle buyer of a particular type of labour. They pay relatively lower wages and employ less people in a competitive labour market. Trade unions can help the problems caused by monopsonist but only till some extent. They can negotiate a minimum wage but their employment can go down too. Labour market failure skill gaps- less skills so employees are not quite productive geographical immobility- can’t migrate economic inactivity- education or illness inequality and discrimination working poverty- people work but income is less monopsony power of employers How to solve labour problems minimum wage for low paid jobs legal protection of basic rights higher trade union membership enhanced scrutiny of mergers 4. The Macroeconomy 4.1. Economic growth Economic growth- in the short-run is an increase in a country's output and in the long run an increase in a country’s productive potential Actual economic growth on PPC and AD/AS diagram WWW.ZNOTES.ORG The actual growth on PPC is inside the curve. the points on the curve show the use of all the resources but in reality not all the resources are used especially labour so the diagrams show how there is actual growth. Potential growth shown on PPC and AD/AS diagram CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) More efficient allocation New export markets Corporate tax reduction Upturn in business cycle Increase in labour force Labour quality improvement More research & development Technological advances Net investment in capital stock Capital-intensive production \n 4.2. Trade cycles Trade cycle- fluctuations in the economic activity over a period of years factors contributing to economic growth -increase in quantity and quality of resources costs of economic growth- opportunity cost, depletion of resources, stress and anxiety Benefits of economic growth- increased goods & services, rise in employment, increases investment. The potential growth how much the GDP or how much more the resources the country could actually allocate. Economic development- an increase in welfare and the quality of life Sustainable development - development that ensures that the needs of the present generations can be met without compromising the well being of future generations. Output gap- a gap between actual and potential output Negative output gap- a situation where actual output is below potential output positive output gap- a situation where actual output is above potential output. 4.3. GDP ways of measuring GDP output measure- measures the value of output produced by industries. income method - Using income of people expenditure method - the amount people spend Money GDP = total output measured in current prices Real GDP - total output measured in constant prices. Economic growth factors: Increased mobility & flexibility WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Real GDP = (Money GDP x price index in base year) / price index in current year. Shadow economy- the output of goods and services not included in official national figures Purchasing power parity- a way of comparing international living Standards by using an exchange rate based on the amount of each currency needed to purchase the same basket goods and services. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Avoid confusing national debt with budget deficit. The former is built up over time while the latter occurs over the course of 1 year Kuznets curve- a curve that shows the relationship between economic growth and income inequality. The Kuznets curve suggests that as an economy develops, income becomes more unevenly distributed and then after a certain income level is reached, income becomes more evenly distributed. The thinking behind this initial rise in income inequality is that as an economy develops there will be a movement of labour from low-paid and low-skilled agricultural jobs to higher paid and more skilled manufacturing jobs. 4.4. Poverty cycles and development traps poverty cycle- the links between, for example, low income, low savings, low investment and low productivity. This also means that developing countries located in the same region are usually affected by the same types of problems. The problems of developing countries in subSaharan Africa, may, for example, be quite distinct from those of developing countries in Asia. A number of developing economies in Africa, Asia and Latin America do, however, suffer from poverty cycles, which are also sometimes referred to as development traps.The term ‘emerging economies’ describes those developing economies that have high rates of economic growth and are expected to give high rates of return on investment while carrying a greater risk than investment in developed economies. Developing economies have low income or middle income. Emerging economies tend to have middle or high income and developed economies have high income. It can, however, be misleading as some countries’ economies may be growing while others may be contracting. It also does not capture all the influences on development. If either the proportion of debt service exceeds 80% of GNI or the value of debt service to exports is 220% of exports, then the country is considered to be severely indebted. If either of the two rates exceeds 60% of the critical level, then the country is said to be moderately indebted. The presence of debt on such a scale diverts resources to debt repayment and away from spending on health and education, infrastructure and poverty relief. Developing economies typically have a high dependence on the primary sector. As an economy develops, the contribution to GDP of the primary sector tends to decline. The secondary sector becomes the major contributor and as the economy develops further, the tertiary sector usually makes the largest contribution to output. Developing economies tend to have high rates of population growth. This is due largely to natural increases in population size with the birth rate exceeding the death rate. Theories: Development traps - restrictions on the growth of developing economies that arise from low levels of savings and investment Developed economies- high income countries, Mature markets, high standard of living, high levels of productivity, economy with low GDP per head. Developing economies - economy with high GDP per head. Emerging economies - economies with a rapid growth rate and that provide good investment opportunities Differences between different types of economies: The differences that exist between them are related to the geographical area in which the countries are located. WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Malthusian theory - the view that population grows in progression whereas the quantity of food grows in arithmetic geometric progression. However, there are many technological changes made in. Prebish - Singer hypothesis: a theory that suggests that tend to move against developing economies so that the developing economies have to export more to gain the terms a trade a given quantity of imports. 4.5. Unemployment The size of a country’s labour force depends upon a wide range of demographic, economic social and cultural factors, such as: the total size of the population of working age CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) the number of people who remain in full-time education above the school leaving age the retirement age the proportion of women who join the labour force. Labour productivity: output per worker hour. Unemployment: the state of being willing and able to work but without a job. Full employment: the level of employment corresponding to where all who wish to work have found jobs, excluding frictional unemployment. Natural rate of unemployment: the rate of unemployment that exists when the aggregate demand for labour equals the aggregate supply of labour at the current wage rate and price level. Frictional unemployment - unemployment that is temporary and arises where people are in between jobs Structural unemployment - unemployment caused as a result of the changing structure of economic activity. Cyclical unemployment - unemployment that results from lack aggregate demand Seasonal unemployment- unemployment that results from change in seasons therefore changing demand for the product. reducing the rate of interest to increase consumer expenditure and investment increasing the money supply to, again, increase consumer expenditure and investment lowering the exchange rate, either through a formal devaluation or through intervention in the foreign exchange market in the case of a managed float, to increase net exports. 4.6. Circular flow of income Unemployment on AD/AS diagram - Injections: additions to the circular flow of income. Withdrawals: leakages from the circular flow of income. An open economy is an economy that engages in international trade. In contrast, a closed economy is one that does not export or import goods and services. Open economy: S + T + M = I + G + X Closed economy: S +T = I + G Difficulty in calculating unemployment: Claimant count - a measure of unemployment based on those claiming unemployment benefits Labour force survey. a measure of unemployment based upon a survey that identifies people who are actively seeking a job. Ways to correct unemployment: Reflationary monetary and fiscal policy The reflationary fiscal measures it may use are: a reduction in indirect or direct taxation to increase consumer expenditure a cut in corporate taxes to stimulate investment an increase in government spending. The possible monetary measures include: WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Circular flow in a closed economy: CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) The consumption function, or Keynesian consumption function, is an economic formula that represents the functional relationship between total consumption and gross national income. Inflationary gap- the excess of aggregate expenditure ever potential output (equivalent to a positive output gap). Deflationary gap- a shortage of aggregate expenditure so that potential output is not reached (equivalent to a negative output gap). In the diagram below, ab is the inflationary gap and vu is the deflationary gap. Circular flow in an open economy: 4.7. Multiplier Multiplier = a numerical the estimate of a change in spending in relation to final change in spending. 1/1-mpc or 1/mps 1/ mps+mrt- for closed or 3 sector economy 1/ mps+mrt+mpm- for open or 4 sector economy Marginal propensity to save (mps)- the proportion of extra income which is saved Marginal rate of taxation (mrt)- the proportion of extra income spent on imports Marginal propensity to import (mpm)- proportion of extra income spent on imports Marginal propensity to consume (mpc)- proportion of income that is spent Average Propensity to Consume (APC) is the ratio between total consumption and total income. Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) is the ratio between additional consumption and additional income. 4.8. Inflationary and deflationary gap WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Impact of a cut in government spending - a) Impact of an increase in government spending- b) CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Keynesians, however, argue that the equation cannot be turned into a theory since V and Y can change with a change in the money supply and so no predictions can be made about what effect a change in M will have on P. Types of market failure Public good Inequality Monopoly Merit good Factor immobility Externalities demerit good minimizing unemployment increasing productivity controlling inflation. Quantitative easing: a central bank buying government bonds from the private sector to increase the money supply. Total currency flow: the current plus capital plus financial balances of the balance of payments 4.10. Keynesian and Monetarists+ liquidity trap and virtuous cycle Keynesians: economists who think that government intervention is needed to achieve full employment. Keynesian 45 degree diagram 4.9. Investment, money and market failure Induced investment investment made in response to change in income Autonomous investment: investment that is made independent of income. Accelerator theory: a model that suggests investment depends on the rate of change in income. Narrow money: money that can be spent directly. Broad money: money used for spending and saving. Fisher equation :MV = PY M = money supply V = velocity P= price level y = output of economy The Fisher Effect states that the real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. For example, the money supply may initially be US$80 billion, the velocity of circulation 5, price level 100 and output is 4 billion. If V and Y are unchanged, an increase in the money supply by 50% to 120 would cause the price level to also rise by 50% to 150. The monetarist view is WWW.ZNOTES.ORG Monetarists: economists who argue that control of the money supply is essential to avoid inflation Precautionary motive: a reason for holding money for unexpected or unforeseen events. Active balances: the amount of money held by households or firms for possible future use. Speculative motive: a reason for holding money with a view to make future gains from buying financial assets. Idle balances: the amount of money held temporarily as the returns from holding financial assets are too low CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) Liquidity trap: a situation where interest rates cannot be reduced anymore in order to stimulate an upturn in economic activity maintaining a maximum population size with optimal standards of living for all people 5. Government Macro Intervention 5.1. Interconnectedness of Macroeconomic Problems Virtuous cycle: the links between, for example, an increase in investment, increase in productivity, increase in income and increase in saving. 4.11. Living standard comparison Measurable Economic Welfare(MEW): a composite measure of living standards that adjusts GDP for factors that reduce living standards and factors that improve living standards. Human Development Index(HDI): a composite measure of living standards that includes GNI per head, education and life expectancy. Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI): a composite measure of deprivation in terms of the proportion of households that lack the requirements for a reasonable standard of living. NAIRU: i.e. non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment is unemployment rate at macroeconomic equilibrium which prevents rate of inflation from rising. Note: NAIRU is shown on expectations augmented Philips curve/long-run Philips curve/very long-run aggregate supply curve of new-classical economists. optimum population: The optimum population is a concept where the human population is able to balance WWW.ZNOTES.ORG The internal value of money is the value of money when buying goods and services. This is the real value of money and it is measured by the purchasing power of money. Inflation reduces internal value of money. Exports become dearer and imports cheaper. Current account deficit occurs if ML-condition met. Exchange rate falls due to reduced demand and increased supply of currency. Fall in unemployment increases AD, thus causes inflation. Timbergen’s rule: is that there must be at least one policy measure for every macroeconomic objective**.** Refer to AS section 5 for more. Counter-cyclical fiscal measures are policy measures which counteract the effects of the economic cycle. For example, counter-cyclical fiscal policy actions when the economy is slowing would include increasing government spending or cutting taxes to help stimulate economic recovery. Macroeconomics problems arise when the economy does not adequately achieve the goals of full employment, stability, and economic growth this is why macroeconomic failure occurs. Macroeconomic conflicts Economic growth vs Inflation: One macro-economic conflict can come between economic growth and inflation (which leads to a similar conflict between unemployment and inflation). If there is rapid economic growth, it is more likely that inflationary pressures will increase. Economic growth vs Balance of payments: When economic growth is led by consumer spending, it tends to cause a deficit in the current account. This is because as consumer spending rises, there will be a rise in import spending. Economic growth vs budget deficit: If government wants to reduce budget deficit this will require higher taxes and lower spending. However, this tightening of fiscal policy will lead to a fall in AD and lead to lower economic growth. Similarly, if the government wants to boost the rate of economic growth it could pursue expansionary fiscal policy (tax cuts/spending rises). This should increase aggregate demand and help economic growth – but there will be a side effect, the budget deficit will rise. CAIE A2 LEVEL ECONOMICS (9708) 5.2. Inflation Government wants high employment with low inflation Internal and external value of money: The internal value of a country’s currency and its external value may be closely connected. Th e internal value will fall as a result of inflation. Each unit of the currency will buy less in the domestic market. Balance of payment and inflation: if a country’s inflation rate rises above that of its main competitors, its price competitiveness will fall. Export revenue will decline while import expenditure rises and the current account balance will deteriorate. Unemployment and inflation: Phillips curve: a curve that shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate over a period of time. Expectations-augmented Phillips curve: a diagram that shows that while there may be a trade-off between unemployment and inflation in the short run, there is no trade-off in the long run. WWW.ZNOTES.ORG 5.3. Tax Tinbergen’s rule: for every policy aim there must be at least one policy measure. Government macroeconomic failure: government intervention reducing rather than increasing economic performance. Counter-cyclically: going against the fluctuations in economic activity Laffer curve: a curve showing tax revenue rising at first as the tax rate is increasing and then falling beyond a certain rate CAIE A2 LEVEL Economics (9708) Copyright 2022 by ZNotes These notes have been created by Mauli Vishal Shah for the 2022 syllabus This website and its content is copyright of ZNotes Foundation - © ZNotes Foundation 2022. All rights reserved. The document contains images and excerpts of text from educational resources available on the internet and printed books. If you are the owner of such media, test or visual, utilized in this document and do not accept its usage then we urge you to contact us and we would immediately replace said media. 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