THE PHYSICAL MODEL OF THE
LITHOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE
COUPLING AS A BASIS FOR THE
OPERATIVE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
Sergey Pulinets
Space Research Institute
Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, Russia
pulse1549@gmail.com
India - Russia
Scientific Webinar on Disaster Management Technologies
1 – 2 December 2021
 How
recognize the precursor from other anomalies. Physics and logic
 Precursory
 Three
 LAIC
period determination
interfaces of the geospheres interaction
model
 Precursor’s
 Specificity
 Exmples
examples and their main features
of low-latitude and equatorial earthquakes
of the strong earthquakes at India (and around)
 Conclusion
OUTLINE
WHO CAN GUARANTEE THAT THESE
ARE REAL PRECURSORS?
CLASSIC SEISMOLOGY APPROACH
Dobrovolsky, 2009
Scholz et al., 1973
Mjachkin et al., 1975
Dobrovolsky, 2009
PRECURSORY
PERIOD
Period of metastable state of the
geophysical media (Sadovsky) – the
period of short-term precursors
generation and foreshock activity
Kobe seismic
activity
b - parameter
Fractal
dimension
D~2b
L’Aquila earthquake, 2006
b - parameter
Padopoulos et al, 2010
Kobe
1995
“lower than average b‐values
characterize locked patches of faults
(asperities), from which future
mainshocks are more likely to be
generated.” (Schorlemmer et al., 2004)
and coincides with increased radon
emanation from the earth’s crust
De Santis (2011)
THE PHYSICAL MODEL AND A MULTI-SENSOR WEB SYSTEM
FOR PRE-EARTHQUAKE SIGNALS DETECTION, UTILIZATION
AND ALERTS
MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF IIN
Thermal
anomalies
Ionospheric
anomalies
Latent heat
release
Boundary layer
conductivity
modification
Ion induced
nucleation
INN
LITHOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE
INTERFACE AND THERMAL
ANOMALIES
GUJARAT M7.7 EARTHQUAKE 21 JANUARY 2001
Radon anomalies before M9.3 Sumatra 2004
At Bakreswar, West Bengal, India
~2400 km
Das et al, 2005
Radon Anomalies started on Dec 15 , 11
days prior to the M9.3 of Dec 26, 2004
10
Kashmir 2005
M7.6 earthquake
8 October 2005
ACP Spatial distribution
6 days before the
Kashmir M7.6 earthquake
Dobrovolsky earthquake
Preparation zone for M7.6
is ~1850 km
NEPAL 2015 M7.8
AND M7.3
EARTHQUAKES
OLR dancing within the
Dobrovolsky earthquake preparation
zone
Ouzounov D, Pulinets S, Davidenko D,
Rozhnoi A, Solovieva M, Fedun V,
Dwivedi BN, Rybin A, Kafatos M and
Taylor P (2021)
Transient Effects in
Atmosphere and Ionosphere
Preceding the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3
Gorkha–Nepal Earthquakes.
Frontiers in Earth Science. 9:757358.
doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.757358
ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE INTERFACE
HOW IT WORKS
Tacza et al., 2017
Solar proton event
El Leoncito observatory
Argentina
Negative ionospheric
anomaly
Positive ionospheric
anomaly
Conductivity decrease
EF growth
Ion’s hydration, large ion
clusters formation
Small ion’s formation
conductivity increase, EF drop
Air ionization (corpuscular
or electromagnetic)
14
ИОНИЗАЦИЯ И ЭЛЕКТРИЧЕСКОЕ ПОЛЕ
Negative ionospheric
anomaly
Positive ionospheric
anomaly
Conductivity decrease
EF growth
Ion’s hydration, large ion
clusters formation
Small ion’s formation
conductivity increase, EF drop
Air ionization (corpuscular
or electromagnetic)
SEMI-AUTOMATIC PRECURSORS
IDENTIFICATION
12.11.2013 М6.6
11.09_06
ACP
RH
P
O3
M6.2 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER
EARTHQUAKE ON 25 NOVEMBER 2021
22.80 N ; 93.57 E
I’M NOT ALONE
Sergey
Pulinets
Dimitar
Ouzounov
Katsumi
Hattori
Lou‐Chuang LeeCheng‐Ling
Lee
Kuo
Antonella
Peresan
Gerassimos
Papadopoulos
Ben
Tsai
Alexander
Karelin
Seiya
Uyeda
Jann‐Yenq (Tiger)
Liu
Masashi
Hayakawa
Michel
Parrot
Xuhui
Shen
Peter
Shebalin
Toshyasu
Nagao
Giovanni
Martinelli
Volodya
Kossobokov
Valerio
Tramutoli
Valery
Hegai
CONCLUSIONS
 Seismic-tectonic
processes work as an open non-equilibrium
open system with dissipation described by Synergetic approach
 We
observe the explosive growth of some parameters’
magnitude (exacerbation mode) and precursor’s acceleration
 Created
physical LAiC model provides comprehensive
explanation of the precursor’s generation processes
 The
technologies developed for short-term precursor’s
automatic identification
 Created
application in case of their official implementation
give opportunity to solve the one of the main problems of
mankind – realize the short-term earthquake forecast.
QUANTECTUM GLOBAL
THIS IS A NEW REALITY