All aspects of the conflict in Ukraine have severe knock-on repercussions for a global economy already
reeling from the effects of COVID-19 as well as climate change, with the poorest nations feeling the effects
the hardest. Recent forecasts by UNCTAD indicate that the conflict will cause a one-percentage point drop
in global GDP growth below expectations. This is because the war is significantly affecting already tight
food, resources, and financial markets.
Global food security is under jeopardy as a result of the turmoil in commodities markets caused by the
growing conflict in Ukraine. Food costs have increased due to the ongoing effects of the COVID-19
epidemic as well as other causes. Grain and oilseed stockpiles are at their lowest point since 2011-2013,
and prices have risen to their top levels since then due to factors like poor yields in South America,
increasing global consumption, and supply chain difficulties. The shorter South American soybean crop,
lower palm oil supply owing to harvest troubles in Malaysia, and substantially increasing consumption of
palms and soybean oil for biodiesel generation have all contributed to the current record levels of
vegetable oil prices. Crucial energy-intensive commodities like gasoline, fertilizer, and insecticides have
also seen near-record price increases.
Russia's assault of Ukraine will have significant effects on global grain supply in the near term and on
growers in the upcoming planting season due to its disruption of natural gas and fertilizer markets.
Especially vulnerable would be low-income net-food importing nations, many of which have suffered
rising rates of malnutrition in recent years as a result of pandemic disruptions. Although we focus on the
worldwide effects of the crisis in this essay, we must not overlook the war's immediate effects on local
communities. There is a high risk that between 1.5 and 5 million people in Ukraine might be displaced as
a result of military activities, triggering a severe food shortage. Both the State of Food Security and
Nutrition Show and the Global Report on Food Crisis report that wars continue to be a major cause of
food insecurity throughout the globe.
Because of its pivotal role in global food and energy production, the conflict in Ukraine has global
repercussions. Problems in food production and export are already linked to lower supplies and higher
prices. There has been a dramatic increase in the cost of importing food and energy, and this trend is likely
to continue. The effects of this might be felt far and wide, but the poor and the defenseless will feel them
the most. As a result of current market disturbances, many food producers lack access to necessary
agricultural inputs, and this shortage could last until at least 2023. Implementing the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development requires urgent coordinated activities that react to needs, priorities people,
seize opportunities, and adjust to local conditions. Many food producers, particularly small farmers, may
not have access to fertilizers and agricultural inputs they require, threatening their livelihoods and
extending the possibility for present market upheavals to be felt into 2023. If nations respond by shutting
down food markets, it might start off a chain reaction of trade restrictions and export prohibitions that
could have disastrous results.
Though all nations that have a net food import surplus will feel the effects of rising food prices, those
whose economies rely heavily on wheat imports through Russia and Ukraine will be hit particularly hard.
Since the conflict broke out, wheat as well as maize prices have fluctuated wildly, but they are still 30%
higher than they were at the start of the year. In the middle range, the situation is made much more
difficult by disruptions in the fertilizer markets. A number of experts have speculated that in nations where
there are many subsistence farmers, food yields might drop by as much as 50 percent.
Grass exports from Russia and Ukraine will be directly impacted by the current turmoil. For the most part,
wheat and barley are produced in the summer and shipped overseas in the autumn. By the end of
February, the vast majority of wheat, barley, and sunflower seed shipments had been sent outside. Maize
exports from Ukraine tend to stay high throughout the spring and into the beginning of the summer. The
majority of grain exports leave the Black Sea via the ports of Odessa or other western cities, distant from
the seized eastern regions, but recent Russian military moves have made interruptions more possible.
Damage to port facilities and railways from ground and air operations, or cyberattacks targeting different
infrastructures and their administration, might have short and the long term ramifications for Ukraine's
ability to transport agricultural produce inside and beyond its boundaries.
The Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are responsible for a small percentage of Ukraine's anticipated crop
yields in 2022: about 5% of the country's barley, 8% of its wheat, 9% of its sunflower seed, and 0% of its
maize. Easternmost region of the oblasts along the Russian border is where the occupied cities of Donetsk
and Luhansk are located. However, most of Ukraine's output occurs in regions bordering Russia and
Belarus, where Russian forces are also concentrated. Twenty-five to thirty percent of the world's supply
of maize as well as sunflower seeds are grown in these oblasts, while ten to fifteen percent of the world's
supply of barley and twenty to twenty-five percent of the world's supply of wheat are grown there as well.
Planting of spring barley will start in March, while planting of maize will start in April, as is customary.
Normal planting of winter wheat occurs in September.
When hostilities rise, food supplies might quickly dwindle. That leaves us with dwindling food supplies at
ever-increasing prices or a supply that just won't suffice. No matter what happens, people will have a hard
time finding food. As we saw with the Arab Spring, which was in part a response to high grain prices, a
scenario in which many hands are seeking extremely limited and costly food supplies might ignite civil
strife. It has been reported that inhabitants in the embattled Ukrainian city of Mariupol have turned on
one other in their search for food (Business Insider, 2022). This 'fight-food-fight' narrative, established by
several economic research, suggests that wars may break out when people compete over scarce
commodities like farmland, food, or human beings (Collier and Hoeffler, 2005; Harari and Ferrara, 2018).
Unless the war ends then there is an outside intervention, such as humanitarian help, the cycle of violence
will continue.
The cost of war is high. More costly than the immediate war damage will be the inevitable reconciliation,
rehabilitation, and rebuilding that will follow. Whether the economic catastrophe is the result of war, a
changing climate, or Covid-19, limited supply and high pricing are the result for the world's food supply.
In contrast to the global economy, which swiftly recovered after the pandemic as predicted by the IMF
(Figure 4), the time it will take for food sources to return to their pre-conflict status is unknown. The speed
with which Ukrainian farmers can be taught and sent to farms will be crucial, as will the level of destruction
and the success of international initiatives and help.
Long-term effects of decreasing food imports are yet unclear. Low imports, the theory goes, will force
food-dependent countries to turn inside and work toward greater food self-sufficiency (The Guardian,
2020). Whatever the outcome may be in the long-term, it is certain that in the near future, food shortages
and insecurity will intensify since local production cannot make up for reduced imports.
It has had a direct and indirect impact on the world's food supply. Shortages in production of food, import
restrictions, rising food costs, and declining earnings have all had a direct impact, while fuel and fertilizers
price inflation have had a more indirect impact. If farmers are experiencing severe hunger, they may
decide to consume the crops they had intended to grow in the next season. Even in cases when local
farmers in poor nations seem to profit from higher international food prices, these benefits are being
negated by declining actual wages.
The world needs a forceful external action to prevent a food crisis. The G7 agriculture ministers have
recommended a number of measures to the looming food crisis, including the exchange of information
about nations' food situation and the maintenance of open borders for agricultural exports. After the
fighting stops in Ukraine, it may be prudent to bring in farmers to assist revitalize the country's agricultural
industry in addition to supplying weapons and other resources for the war effort and financial relief for
the suffering people. However, it is still unclear when it'll be secure to do so.
Ensuring availability of food supplies and fertilizers in import-dependent settings: Governments of
countries that rely on food and fertilizer imports are seeking to diversify their sources of supply: This
involves enhancing domestic production diversifying sources of imports and releasing existing food stocks.
Stakeholders also seek to increase availability through reductions in loss and waste of food throughout
supply chains. Countries with large food stocks should support countries in need. Focusing on the inputs
of smallholder food producers: Enable food producers, especially smallholders, and local food processors,
to maintain decent livelihoods and to contribute to increases in local and national food production
through adequate access to seeds, fertilizers, and fuel. Ensure that all people can realize the right to food;
facilitate their access to the food they need, and their nutrition; respond with locally-adapted social
protection interventions to alleviate hardship and promote well-being. When necessary, enabling people
in need to access nutritious food through humanitarian assistance: governments, NGOs and international
organizations should be adequately financed to provide it. Exempting purchases of food by WFP for
humanitarian assistance from food export restrictions with immediate effect: Members of the WTO will
have the opportunity to formally adopt this measure at the World Trade Organization’s 12th Ministerial
Conference to be held in June 2022.
In import-reliant communities, ensuring food supply and fertilizer availability: Import-dependent nations'
governments are looking to broaden their food and fertilizer supply chains. This includes increasing local
output, diversifying import sources, and releasing stored food. Many interested parties are working to
reduce food waste and spoilage across supply networks in order to boost food availability. Food-secure
nations should help those with surpluses. Paying close attention to the resources that smallholder farmers
use: Facilitate increased regional and national food production by ensuring that farmers, particularly small
farmers, and food processors have access to the seeds, fertilizers, and fuel they need to keep their
businesses afloat. Consistent and reasonable freight rates: Take part in global initiatives to rein down
freight and logistics pricing surges. Keeping the poor and the vulnerable from becoming hungry: Make
sure everyone has resources such as food they need and proper nutrition, and help those in need by
implementing localized social protection measures that will reduce their suffering and improve their
quality of life. When it comes to providing humanitarian aid, governments, NGOs, and international
organizations should have the resources to ensure that those in need have access to nutritional meals.
Prohibitions on exporting food products are suspended immediately for food purchased by the World
Food Programme (WFP) for humanitarian aid. At the 12th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade
Organization, scheduled for June 2022, WTO members will be able to officially implement this policy.
Food security throughout the world is at danger as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and
governments and international organizations will need to respond in a variety of ways to this crisis. The
scenario is still developing, which adds further unpredictability to an already tense international market.
Countries that import food on a net basis and are heavily reliant on Ukraine for supply are particularly at
risk, and this includes several in the Middle East and North Africa. Third-party countries that rely on
Russian exports should not be negatively affected by any sanctions imposed on Russia, and a robust global
food security component should be included in the global reaction to the Ukrainian crisis. Food and
fertilizer exports should be unobstructed whenever feasible, and in the event that this is not practicable,
impacted third-party nations should be offered mitigation measures. Sanctioning these industries would
only make global food shortages worse and hurt the poor the most.
Last but not least, many nations' heavy dependence on Russian energy goods will spark serious policy
discussions. There will be calls for increased energy independence and diversity. But we need to be
skeptical of programmes that advocate for increasing biofuel production. Tensions in food and fertilizer
markets are already rising as a result of the global trend of diverting staple crops from their traditional
food usage. This phenomenon is already being felt everywhere from the European Union to Indonesia. In
order to keep food and nutrition results at the top of the agenda, it is essential to take a comprehensive
strategy to assuring their safety and availability.
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